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TABLE OF CONTENTS

TRANSFORMATIONS IN THE MEDITERRANEANACTORS, THREATS, OPPORTUNITIES

Independent expert panel

Demographics

Perceptions

Policies: Economy

Policies: Security

Policies: Migrations

4

5

6

10

12

13

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INDEPENDENT EXPERT PANEL

ABBAS Faisal – Al Arabiya EnglishABDALLAH Salah Eddin – Al Jazeera Centre for

Studies – AJCSADDIOUI Adnane – Moroccan Center for Innovation and Social EntrepreneurshipAITA Samir – Circle of Arab EconomistsALA’ALDEEN Dlawer – Middle East Research InstituteALESSANDRI Emiliano – OSCEAL-HADID Mohammed – Jordan National Red

Crescent Society AL-KHATIB Walid – Centre for Strategic StudiesAL-RUWAIHI Khaled – Bahrain Center for Strategic

Studies and International Energy – DERASAT AMIN Shahira – Independent journalistAMIRAH-FERNÁNDEZ Haizam – Real Instituto

ElcanoANOUAR Houeida – Al Huffington Post MaghrebAYYASH Abdelrahman – Bahcesehir UniversityBAKER Gerard – Wall Street JournalBAYDAR Yavuz – P24, the Platform for

Independent MediaBENCHEHIDA Hafida – Arab Women

Parlamentarian NetworkBERKOFSKY Axel - University of PaviaBERTI Benedetta – Institute for National Security

Studies – INSS BONINO Emma – ECFRCAMLIBEL Cansu – HurriyetCAPRARA Maurizio – Corriere della SeraCAVERO Teresa – Oxfam International & UcodepCOHEN-ADRIA Emmanuel – IEmedCOLAKOGLU Selcuk – International Strategic

Research OrganizationCUI Hongjian – CIISDAGHER Munqith – IIACSSDEMERTZIS Maria – BruegelDHAOUADI Rim – University of Carthage DOKOS Thanos – Hellenic Foundation for

European & Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)DRISS Ahmed – Centre Etudes Mediterranées

Internationales - CEMIDYNKIN Alexander – IMEMO RASEL GOMATI Anas – Sadeq InstituteEZZAT Ibrahim Youssef – Al Ahram NewspaperFAKOUSSA Dina – DGAPFATANY Samar – Al Arabiya FERRÉ Josep – European Institute of the

Mediterranean - IEMedFOUAD Hazim – Christian-Albrechts-University

of Kiel FREIDJI Nabila – Cash OneGADE Tine – Norwegian Institute of International

Affairs – NUPIGAERTNER Heinz – Austrian Institute for

International Affairs / University of ViennaGARAVOGLIA Matteo – Center on the United

States and Europe, Brookings GARIMBERTI Paolo – EuronewsGHORBEL Slim – Tunisian Union of Industry,

Trade and Handicrafts (UTICA)GIANNITI Maria – Giornale Radio RaiGUETAT Meriem – University of Nice Sophia

Antipolis HADZOVIC Denis – Centre for Security StudiesHAMOUDA Sara – College of Europe, Poland

HOLSLAG Jonathan – Free University of BrusselsHOPPE Till – Handelsblatt, BerlinJIHEN Boutiba Mrad – BUSINESSMEDJRAD Eya – University of Tunis KASCHUBA Wolfgang – Berlin Institute for Integration and

Migration ResearchKHADER Bichara – EuroMeSCo General Assembly KIS-BENEDEK József – Center for Security and Defense

StudiesKÖHLER Michael – European CommissionKORANYI David – Atlantic Council Eurasian Energy Futures

InitiativeKRICHAH Sameh – National Institute for Applied Sciences

and Technology (INSAT) KRICHAH Samah – Al KhattLADKI Nadim – Daily star LESSER Ian – Transatlantic CenterMAGRI Paolo – ISPIMALMVIG Helle – DIISMCGANN James – TTCSP Program, University of

PennsylvaniaMEZRAN Karim – Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle EastMICHELOT Martin – European Institute for European Policy - EUROPEUMMUHLBERGER Wolfgang – The Finnish Institute of

International AffairsNARBONE Luigi – European University InstituteNASR Vali – Johns Hopkins UniversityNEGRI Alberto – Il Sole 24 OreNELLI FEROCI Ferdinando – IAIORTEGA Andres – Real Instituto ElcanoPAPACHELAS Alexis – KathimeriniPAPOULIAS Panos – Stavros Niarchos FoundationPEDDE Nicola – IGSPLEBANI Andrea – Catholic University of the Sacred

HeartQUARTAPELLE Lia – Italian Chamber of DeputiesRÉVAY Paul – The Trilateral CommissionRIZK Elie – Lebanese Exhibitions & Conferences

AssociationROY Olivier – European University InstituteSALEH Mohsen Mohammad – Al-Zaytouna Centre for

Studies and ConsultationsSASNAL Patricia – Polish Institute of International Affairs -

PISMSCHMID Dorothée – IFRIŠELO ŠABIĆ Senada – Institute for International Relations

– IRMOSERAG Basma – American University of Cairo SHULL Aaron – Centre for International Governance

Innovation (CIGI)SPENCER Claire – Chatham HouseSTEFANINI Stefano – Atlantic CouncilTAGLIAPIETRA Simone – BruegelTALBOT Valeria – ISPITEIXEIRA Nuno Severiano – Portuguese Institute for

International Relations – IPRITORELLI Stefano – ISPITOUMI Sarah – Acacias for All et Dream in TunisiaTRAMBALLI Ugo – Il Sole 24 OreVALENTINO Paolo – Il Corriere della SeraVARVELLI Arturo – ISPIVOIGT Karsten D. – German Council on Foreign PolicyXU Mingqi – SASS ZAPTIA Sami – Libya Herald ZELACI Chems Eddine – CREADZOHRY Ayman – Egyptian Society for Migration Studies

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NUMBER OF PARTECIPANTS

100 people

REGION OF PROVENIENCE

59Europe

36 MENA

MAIN OCCUPATION

Researchers

56

Business persons

and others

11

Policymakers

5

Journalists

19

NGO/ practicioners

9

Under 30

11

31-45

28

46-60

39

Over 60

22

AGE

DEMOGRAPHICS

3North America

2Asia

6

PERCEPTIONS

WHAT ARE THE MAIN THREATS TO THE STABILITY OF THE MENA REGION?

WHAT ARE THE MAIN THREATS TO THE STABILITY OF EUROPE?

Populism

Civil conflicts

23.5%

17.5%

Migration crisis

Terrorism

9.1%

14.0%

Terrorism

Economic crisis

7.4%

13.6%

Economic crisis

Authoritarianism

23.1%

14.8%

Inadequate EU policies

Sectarian divide

8.4%

13.8%

Ethnic/religious polarization

Social Inequalities

7.3%

13.3%

Mediterranean instability

External interventions/influences

6.1%

10.7%

Social Inequalities

The fall of the price of oil

5.1%

1.3%

Current ruling classes

Natural resources

3.7%

1.0%

Ukraine crisis and tension with Russia

Austerity measures

Energy crisis

3.5%

2.2%

0.6%

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PERCEPTIONS

WHICH REGIONAL STATES/ACTORS CONTRIBUTE THE MOST TO THE STABILITY

OF THE MENA REGION?

WHICH EXTERNAL STATES/ACTORS CONTRIBUTE THE MOST TO THE STABILITY

OF THE MENA REGION?

EU

please rank up to 3 options in order of relevance please rank up to 3 options in order of relevance

OthersOthers

Jordan27.6% 26.2%

7.3%9.3%

Morocco US

Saudi ArabiaChina

19.6% 17.8%

5.4%5.4%

Arab League UN

Iran Egypt

12.2% 17.7%

8.7%NATO6.3%9.1%

Italy6.9%

Turkey Germany10.0% 10.5%

WHICH REGIONAL STATES/ACTORS CONTRIBUTE THE MOST TO THE INSTABILITY

OF THE MENA REGION?

WHICH EXTERNAL STATES/ACTORS CONTRIBUTE THE MOST TO THE INSTABILITY

OF THE MENA REGION?please rank up to 3 options in order of relevance please rank up to 3 options in order of relevance

Others

Daesh29.3%

8.9%

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

16.0%

4.6%

Syria

Al-Qaeda Israel

14.1%

8.2% 8.9%Iran

10.1%

*Others: Qatar 3.0%; Muslim Brotherhood 2.1%; Hamas 1.4%: Hezbollah 1.2%; Hamas 1.1%

*Others: UK 5.7%; China 3.4%; Italy 0.5%; Germany 0.0%

Russia42.3%

US29.6%

Others

France11.1%

9.7%

NATO7.4%

*Others: Israel 5.3%; Qatar 2.0% *Others: Russia 4.8%; France 4.0%; UK 0.6%

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WHICH MENA COUNTRIES ENJOY THE MOST SUCCESSFUL FORM OF GOVERNANCE IN THE REGION?

APART FROM IRAQ, LIBYA, SYRIA AND YEMEN WHICH COUNTRY COULD MOST RISK A POLITICAL CRISIS?

MOROCCO

TUNISIA

ISRAEL

EGYPT SAUDIARABIA

ALGERIA

LEBANON

UAE

OMAN

TURKEY

JORDAN

IRAN

QATARBAHRAIN

KUWAIT

TUNISIA

EGYPT

SAUDIARABIA

ALGERIA

LEBANON

TURKEY

JORDAN

IRAN

BAHRAIN

%

0-1 1-5 5-10 10-20 20-30 (most successful)

%

0-5 (low risk) 5-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 (high risk)

PERCEPTIONS

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WHO IS THE MOST INFLUENTIAL LEADER IN THE MENA REGION?

WHAT IS THE MOST UNDERESTIMATED CRISIS IN THE MENA REGION?

VladimirPutin

Water and other natural resources

26.3%

21.4%

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Palestinian/Israeli question

18.9%

20.4%

Ali Khamenei

Turkey vs PKK

9.5%

11.2%

Barack Obama

Yemen

15.8%

18.4%

King Abdullah II

Libya

13.7%

16.3%

Others: -----------

HOW DO YOU EVALUATE THE FUTURE OF THE EU?

HOW DO YOU EVALUATE THE FUTURE OF THE MENA REGION?

1 1

Very negativetowards disintegrations

Very negativeVery positivetowards better

integration

Very positive

2 2

3 3

4 45 5

5.01

3.686 6

7 7

8 8

9 9

10 10

PERCEPTIONS

10

TO WHAT EXTENT HAVE EUROPEAN UNION POLICIES CONTRIBUTED TO ENHANCING ECONOMIC INTEGRATION

IN THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION?

WHICH IS THE TOP PRIORITY FOR THE MENA REGION?

IN ORDER TO ENHANCE THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

OF THE MENA REGION, IT IS IMPERATIVE TO INVEST IN:

Democracy and inclusiveness

Education system

please rank up to 3 options in order of relevance please rank up to 3 options in order of relevance

26.8% 27.4%

Stability Youth entrepreneurship / Jobs creation26.8%

17.9%

SecurityPolitical

pluralism

Social equality Others

19.6% 16.0%

11.3%

9.0%

19.3%

Strong economy

15.5%

Capacity building10.4%

1

Not contributed at all Contributed a lot

2

3

4

54.16 6

7

8

9

10

Others: Security 7.5%; SMEs 4.2%; Media Independence 4.2%;

NGO inclusion in policy process 3.3%

POLICIES: ECONOMY

Womenparticipation in public life

11

WHICH ARE THE POTENTIAL SECTORS OF A NEW REGIONAL ECONOMIC COOPERATION IN THE MEDITERRANEAN?

Energy

26.1%

Infrastructures

21.8% 15,6%

Training exchange programs

SMEs

11.8%

Women’s enterprise

10.0%14.7%

Research and

innovation

WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING IS THE MAIN TOOL TO PROMOTE AN INCLUSIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE MENA REGION?

Intra-regional economic integration 27.7%

Education 15.8%

FDI 6.9%

Economic diversification 23.8%

Supporting SMEs 14.9%

Normative liberalization 5.0%

Domestic investments 4.0%

Microcredit 2.0%

POLICIES: ECONOMY

12

SYRIAN CRISIS: WHAT IS THE PRIORITY?

LIBYAN CRISIS: WHAT IS THE PRIORITY?

KURDISH ISSUE: WHAT IS THE BEST SOLUTION?

First defeating Daesh. then promoting a

federal state solution

30.7%

Supporting National General Accord

(Serraj government)

45.5%

Creating an independent state

including all the Kurdish-majority areas

13.9%

Supporting Bashar al-Assad

5.0%

Supporting a “federal solution”

49.5%

Creating autonomous regions within the

respective countries

65.3%

Assimilating the Kurdish population

within respective countries

9.9%

Defeating Daesh and promoting a UN-led

transition steering the country away from

Assad

64.4%

Supporting Gen. Khalifa Haftar

5.0%

Allowing the independence of Iraqi

Kurdistan

10.9%

POLICIES: SECURITY

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HOW DO YOU EVALUATE EUROPEAN POLICIES ON:

MANAGING MIGRATION FLOWS

HOW DO YOU EVALUATE THE POLICIES OF MENA COUNTRIES ON:

MANAGING MIGRATION FLOWS


INTEGRATING MIGRANTS


INTEGRATING MIGRANTS

very negative

very negative

very negative

very negative

22.8%

14.9%

21.8%

23.8%

no impact

no impact

no impact

no impact

23.8%

20.8%

10.9%

15.8%

very positive

very positive

very positive

very positive

0.0%

1.0%

1.0%

1.0%

negative

negative

negative

negative

44.6%

48.5%

49.5%

47.5%

positive

positive

positive

positive

8.9%

14.9%

16.8%

11.9%

POLICIES: MIGRATIONS

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COOPERATION AND SOLIDARITYON BORDER CONTROL


COOPERATION AND SOLIDARITYON BORDER CONTROL

very negative very negative20.8% 23.8%

no impact no impact20.8% 20.8%

very positive very positive1.0% 0.0%

negative negative46.5% 44.6%

positive positive10.9% 10.9%

HOW DO YOU EVALUATE THE EU-TURKEY AGREEMENT ON MIGRATION?

POLICIES: MIGRATIONS

1

Very negative (1) Very positive (10)

2

3

4

54.07 6

7

8

9

10

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