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[Table_Title]

Morning Research Focus

Research Department

1 November 2019

[Table_Summary] Table of Contents 目录

News Focus 新闻焦点

Industry and Company Focus 行业和公司焦点

Hong Kong Banks Cut HKD Prime Rates by 12.5bps

香港银行下调港元最优惠贷款利率 12.5 个基点

CNBM (03323 HK): 3Q2019 Net Profit Increased by 19.9% YoY and Slightly Beat Expectations

中国建材 (03323 HK)：2019 年第三季度净利润同比增长 19.9%，略超预期

China Zhongwang (01333 HK): 3Q2019 Total Net Profit Decreased 39.2% YoY

中国忠旺 (01333 HK)：2019 年度三季度总净利同比减少 39.2%

Latest Reports 最新报告摘要

Company

Name

公司名称

Code

代码

Title

标题

TP

目标价

Chg

z

Rating

评级

Chg

变动

EPS

Est.Change?

盈利预测是否改变

China Gold International

02099 HK Operations of the Company is Stable, Maintain "Neutral"

HK$7.00 ↓ Neutral -- Y

中国黄金国际 02099 HK 公司运营稳定，维持“中性”评级 HK$7.00 ↓ 中性 -- 是

Shanghai

Electric 02727 HK

9M2019 Earnings Increased 2.0%

YoY, Reiterate "Buy" HK$3.50 ↓ Buy -- Y

上海电气 02727 HK 2019 年前 9 个月盈利同比增 2.0%，重申“买入”

HK$3.50 ↓ 买入 -- 是

MGM China 02282 HK Flash Note: 3Q2019 EBITDA Increased 38.6% YoY but Missed Our Forecast

HK$13.90 -- Buy -- N

美高梅中国 02282 HK 快讯: 2019 年第 3 季度 EBITDA 同比增长 38.6%但未能达到我们的预期

HK$13.90 -- 买入 -- 否

Air China 00753 HK 3Q19 Grew by Cost Savings, Maintain "Accumulate"

HK$7.54 ↓ Accumulate -- Y

中国国航 00753 HK 2019 年第 3 季度因成本节省而增长，维持“收集”

HK$7.54 ↓ 收集 -- 是

Newly Published Key Economic Data for China, US and Europe

中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据

Appendices：Chinese Version of the Industry and Company Focus, Latest Reports.

后附：行业和公司焦点，最新报告摘要中文版。

Morning Research Focus

See the last page for disclaimer 2 of 12

HSI Performance HSCEI Performance

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

[Table_NewsFocus] News Focus 新闻焦点

China's manufacturing PMI came in at 49.3 in October, down 0.5 ppts MoM. The non-manufacturing business

activity index was 52.8, down 0.9 ppts MoM, and the non-manufacturing sector continued to operate in an

expanding range.

10 月份中国制造业 PMI 为 49.3，比上月下降 0.5 个百分点。非制造业商务活动指数为 52.8，比上月回落 0.9 个百分点，非制造业继续在扩张区间运行。

The fourth plenum of the CPC Central Committee was held in Beijing on October 28, 2019. The full text of the

meeting had released several key contents on upholding and improving the socialist system with Chinese

characteristics and promoting the modernization of the country's governance system and governance capacity.

中国四中全会于 2019 年 10 月 28 日至 31 日在北京举行。全文公布透露了坚持和完善中国特色社会主义制度、推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的若干重点内容。

The US House of Representatives approved impeachment proceedings against the President with a vote of

232-196.

美国国会众众议院以 232 票赞成、196 票反对的表决结果通过了对总统进行弹劾调查程序的决议案。

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

29,000

31,000

33,000

35,000

Oct/18 Jan/19 Apr/19 Jul/19 Oct/19

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Oct/18 Jan/19 Apr/19 Jul/19 Oct/19

迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部微信公众号。 公众号账号：国泰君安国际研究部 也可扫右侧二维码关注。

Please subscribe GTJAI Research Wechat public account. Wechat ID: 国泰君安国际研究部 or scan the QR code.

研究报告库：(1) www.gtjai.com – “研究报告” – “公司点评”/“专题研究”

(2) Bloomberg 报告页面： RESP GJIR

Research Report Database: (1) www.gtjai.com – “Research” – “Focus: Company”/”Research Highlights”

(2) Bloomberg Report Page: RESP GJIR

Morning Research Focus

See the last page for disclaimer 3 of 12

[Table_Focus] Industry and Company Focus

Hong Kong Banks Cut HKD Prime Rates by 12.5bps

Analyst: Johnny Wong

What happened: Led by HSBC, commercial banks in Hong Kong cut HKD prime rates by 12.5bps yesterday

after the Fed lowered interest rate by 25bps the third time this year.

Comments and Views: The prime rate cut surprised us as we did not see a substantial improvement in

Hong Kong interbank liquidity, given the fact that HKD HIBOR remained at a relative high level while the

interbank aggregate balance stayed flat at about HK$54 billion. We do not expect further prime rate cuts in

the near future due to: 1) Hong Kong interbank liquidity is still relatively tight; 2) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell

hinted at the FOMC news conference that the Fed’s monetary stance would be likely to stay at the status

quo, which, in other words, means that further interest rate cut is unlikely.

We expect the stimulation on housing demand brought by the prime rate cut to be weak considering the

minimal reduction in monthly mortgage repayment (about HK$66 for every HK$1 million lent from bank, given

a 30-year repayment period). Instead, a buying spree was observed in the mass residential market in the

past 2 weeks after the government released the price cap on high LTV mortgage loans for first-time home

buyers, which should be favourable to the local developers in Hong Kong.

Investment suggestion: We reiterate our "Outperform" investment rating on the Hong Kong property sector.

Our top pick is Sino Land (00083 HK), with "Accumulate" investment rating and a TP of HK$13.80.

CNBM (03323 HK): 3Q2019 Net Profit Increased by 19.9% YoY and Slightly Beat Expectations

Analyst: David Feng

What happened: CNBM (the "Company") announced its unaudited 3Q2019 results:

3Q2019 (RMB) YoY 1-3Q2019 (RMB) YoY

Revenue 68,831 mn +15.4% 183,143 mn +16.8%

Gross profit 18,956 mn +9.8% 52,755 mnn +14.5%

Shareholders' net profit 4,096 mn +19.9% 10,428 mn +36.1%

Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International.

Comments and views: CNBM's 3Q2019 results slightly beat our expectations. Quarterly revenue increased

by 15.4% YoY to RMB68,831 million, better than our expectation. We believe that one of the major reasons

was higher-than-expected growth in sales volume of cement products, which was mainly driven by strong

shipments in south & central and east China. Dragged by fast-growing operating cost, gross margin dropped

by 1.4 ppts YoY to 27.5%. Despite that selling expense ratio increased 0.4 ppts YoY to 5.5%, administrative

expense ratio decreased 1.4 ppts YoY to 6.8%, and thus overall operating expenses were lower than

expected. Although there was no significant drop in the overall scale of borrowings, thanks to lower interest

rates, finance costs decreased by 4.0% YoY. Shareholders’ profit was up by 19.9% YoY to RMB4,096 million

and slightly beat our expectation, mainly on lower effective tax rate.

Investment suggestion: We expect that CNBM will maintain stable operations in 4Q. However, one of the

major concerns may still be the progress of the Company’s deleveraging. The Company’s annual debt

reduction target of RMB10 billion will highly rely on the effort in 4Q. After a retracement since mid-September,

we believe that the Company’s current valuation is attractive based on its solid results. Our current

investment rating for the Company is "Accumulate" with a target price of HK$7.46. We may revise up our

earnings forecasts and review our investment rating and target price accordingly in our next company report.

Morning Research Focus

See the last page for disclaimer 4 of 12

China Zhongwang (01333 HK): 3Q2019 Total Net Profit Decreased 39.2% YoY

Analyst: Kevin Guo

What happened: China Zhongwang (the "Company") announced its 3Q2019 unaudited results. Key

Fundamentals are as following:

3Q2019 (RMB) YoY% 1-3Q2019 (RMB) YoY%

Net Revenue 5,750.5 mn -18.2 18,650.4 mn 14.0

Total net profit 754.9 mn -39.2 2,220.0 mn -11.5

EPS (RMB) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Source: the Company.

Comments and Views: The 2019 3rd

quarter results of the Company were lower than market consensus and

our expectation, and the net profit in the first 3 quarters was accounting 47.6% of our annual estimation. Total

sale of aluminum products increased by 32.5% yoy to 759,153 tons in the first 3 quarters, the average gross

margin of the Company was down 3.1 ppts to 29.1% due to product mix change. The sale of aluminum alloy

formwork decreased by 20.2% yoy to 188,219 tons in the first 3 quarters and the sale of flat-rolled products

increased by 124.2% yoy to 331,761 tons.

Investment suggestion: China Zhongwang is a leading aluminum processed product developer and

manufacturer in Asia. The Company has established competitive advantages in aluminum processing

industry. We expect the Company to continue to lead in the aluminum processing industry. The production of

aluminum alloy formwork will thoroughly change the product mix of the Company and significantly raise its

profitability. The commence production of high-value aluminum flat rolled products will be the future profit

driver of the Company and has complementary and synergistic effect with current industrial aluminum

extrusion products. We expect the future growth prospect of the Company to be bright. Our TP of the

Company is HK$ 4.87 with the investing rating of “Buy”. We will revise down our estimations.

[Table_Latest] Latest Reports

China Gold International(02099 HK):Operations of the Company is Stable, Maintain "Neutral"

Rating: Neutral 6-18m TP: HK$7.00

Analyst: Kevin Guo Report Date: 2019-10-31

Summary

Gold and copper price remained range-bound in the 3rd

quarter of 2019. Copper price was generally traded between

US$5,600/t and US$6,000/t and gold price was traded around the level of US$1,500/oz.

Maintain copper and gold price assumptions unchanged. We expect the global copper market to be stable in 2019

and 2020 and the average annual copper price to trade around US$6,100/t in 2019. We expect gold price to fluctuate

around US$1,500/oz in the 4th quarter of 2019 and the annual average gold price to be around the level of US$1,400/oz.

Maintain mining output assumptions unchanged. In 2019, the Company plans to produce 210,000 oz of mined gold

and about 59,870 tons of mined copper. The output of mined gold from the CSH mine is expected to remain at the level of

145,000 oz, but the output of mined copper from the Jiama Mine will continue to increase due to enlarged production

capacity.

Revise down TP to HK$7.00 and maintain "Neutral".

Morning Research Focus

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Shanghai Electric(02727 HK):9M2019 Earnings Increased 2.0% YoY, Reiterate "Buy"

Rating: Buy 6-18m TP: HK$3.50

Analyst: Jun Zhu Report Date: 2019-10-31

Summary

9M2019 net earnings went up YoY by 2.0% to RMB2,212 mn, below expectations. Sales and net profit in the 3rd

quarter of 2019 went up YoY by 19.5% and down YoY by 12.8%, respectively. The operating result during the 3rd

quarter was below expectation. 3Q2019 quarterly gross margin was down by 4.1 ppt YoY to 17.3% and pulled

consolidated gross margin in 9M2019 to 19.0%, which was down 1.0 ppt YoY. Segmental operating information for the

3rd

quarter was not provided.

New orders in 9M2019 jumped YoY by 17.7% to RMB117.3 bn. It is worth noting that new orders of wind power

equipment and of environmental protection equipment surged YoY by 100.5% and 274.0% to RMB13.51 bn and

RMB13.71 bn, respectively. At the end of 9M2019, orders on hand amounted to RMB264.14 bn (with RMB70.98 bn not

yet coming into effect), which was up by 14.7% from the level at the end of 2018.

Power engineering investment in China in 9M2019 reached RMB179.7 bn, up YoY by 6.0%. Among which,

thermal, hydro, nuclear and wind power engineering investment in 9M2019 went down YoY by 28.9%, up YoY by

30.2%, down YoY by 29.7%, and up YoY by 72.8%, respectively. During the first 9 months in 2019, renewable energies

contributed approximately 79% of total power engineering investment in China, up YoY by 10 ppt.

We reiterate the "Buy" rating but cut the TP to HK$3.50. We maintain our optimistic view on Shanghai Electric given

its substantial orders on hand, continued reform and corporate transformation. Our new TP corresponds to 15.0x/ 13.8x/

12.7x FY19-FY21 PER or 0.8x/ 0.8x/ 0.7x FY19-FY21 PBR.

Flash Note:MGM China(02282 HK):3Q2019 EBITDA Increased 38.6% YoY but Missed Our Forecast

Rating: Buy 6-18m TP: HK$13.90

Analyst: Noah Hudson Report Date: 2019-10-31

Summary

MGM China's (the "Company") controlling shareholder, MGM Resorts International (MGM US), announced its 3Q19

unaudited financial results, which include partial segmental financial information about the Company. Key 3Q19 results

of MGM China are as follows:

Table-1: MGM China Key Unaudited Results

3Q2019 (HKD) YoY (%) 1-3Q2019 (HKD) YoY (%)

MGM Macau Revenue 2,928.9 mn (14.0) 9,388.2 mn (9.4)

MGM Cotai Revenue 2,847.7 mn 111.3 7,685.0 mn 121.9

Total Revenue 5,776.6 mn 21.5 17,073.2 mn 23.5

Adjusted EBITDA* 1,548.5 mn 38.6 4,625.3 mn 35.1

Source: the Company. Note: *Adjusted EBITDA is profit before finance costs, income tax benefit/expense, depreciation and amortization, gain/loss on disposal/write-off of property and equipment, construction in progress and other assets, interest income, net foreign currency difference, share-based payments, pre-opening costs and corporate expenses which mainly include administrative expenses of the corporate office and license fee paid to a related company.

In 3Q2019, MGM China gained market share as total revenue increased 21.5% yoy to HK$5,777 million, compared

to the 4.1% yoy decline in Macau sector gross gaming revenue. MGM China’s 3Q2019 revenue was in line with

(0.3% above) our forecast. The strong revenue growth was primarily a result of the continued ramp-up in operations at

MGM Cotai following its opening in February 2018. The Company’s mass segment table games win increased 47% yoy

due to the addition of 25 new-to-market tables at MGM Cotai in 2019 and a 5.6 ppt increase in win rate. VIP table games

win increased 5% yoy due to the opening of VIP gaming areas at the end of 3Q2018 at MGM Cotai and an increase in the

VIP table games win percentage.

MGM China’s 3Q2019 adjusted EBITDA increased 38.6% yoy to HK$1,549 million, missing our forecast by 9.7%.

Morning Research Focus

See the last page for disclaimer 6 of 12

Primarily as a result of the continued ramp-up of operations at MGM Cotai, the Company’s adjusted EBITDA margin

increased by 3.3 ppt yoy to 26.8%, but was still less than expected. At the property level, adjusted EBITDA at MGM Cotai

increased 433.3% yoy to HK$692.9 million with margin of 24.3% (compared to just 9.6% in 3Q2018). At the MGM Macau

property, due to lower revenue, adjusted EBITDA decreased 13.3% yoy to HK$855.6 million on margin of 29.2%, which

increased 0.2 ppt yoy and was higher than that of MGM Cotai.

Due to the earnings miss, we may revise down our earnings forecasts and target price in our next Company

Report. Our current investment rating for MGM China is "Buy" with target price of HK$13.90. MGM China's share price

last closed at HK$12.46. The Company’s gross gaming revenue growth greatly outperformed the market during the

quarter, leading to MGM China increasing its market share from 7.8% in 2Q2018 to 10.2% in 3Q2019. However, cost

savings were less than we had expected, and so the Company's EBITDA missed our forecast.

Air China(00753 HK):3Q19 Grew by Cost Savings, Maintain "Accumulate"

Rating: Accumulate 6-18m TP: HK$7.54

Analyst: Toliver Ma Report Date: 2019-10-31

Summary

Air China’s net profit increased 4.4% yoy to RMB3,623 million in 3Q19; roughly in line. The Company achieved

profit growth through cost savings, with low fuel cost due to low oil price and reduced shipping insurance. Less

contribution to the Civil Aviation Development Fund also helped save about RMB200 million. However, revenue was

down 2.3% yoy as dragged by a decrease in passenger yield during 3Q19 with domestic and international routes slightly

down yoy. Net margin improved 0.6 ppts yoy to 9.6%. In 3Q18, AC

booked RMB 2,622 million finance cost in million, and we estimated exchange gain loss to be about RMB 2,000 million

in 3 Q18.

We have revised downwards our net profit forecasts in 2019/ 2020/ 2021 by 12.0%/ 11.2%/ 12.1%, respectively.

We have mainly reduced our passenger yield assumptions to reflect a more challenging environment. ASK guidance

from the management was roughly in line with our expectation, such that the management expects domestic/

international routes will increase 6%/ 8%, respectively, in 2020. Therefore, we maintain ASK assumption unchanged.

We maintain investment rating as "Accumulate", and trim TP to HK$7.54 on lowered earnings. Our TP

represents 1.0x 2019 PBR and 0.9x 2020 PBR. We still view the Company as attractive due to low valuation. Our

valuation is just slightly below its long-term mean, thus we think it’s appropriate.

[Table_NewlyPublished] Newly Published Key Economic Data for China, US and Europe

中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据

Analyst: Jack Wu 分析员：吴狄

Country

国家

Indicator

指标名称

Data Period

数据期间

Current Value

当期值

MoM / QoQ

环比变动

YoY

同比变动

Market Consensus

市场一致预期

China

中国

Official Manufacturing PMI

官方制造业采购经理指数

Oct

10月 49.3 (0.5ppts) (0.9ppts) 49.8

Europe

欧洲

Euro Area GDP QoQ

度欧元区 GDP 季环比增速

3Q

三季度 0.2% (0.1ppts) 0.0ppts 0.1%

Europe

欧洲

Euro Area GDP YoY

欧元区 GDP 同比增速

3Q

三季度 1.1% (0.1ppts) (0.5ppts) 1.1%

Europe

欧洲

Euro-zone Inflation YoY

欧元区通胀率同比增速

Oct

10月 0.7% (0.1ppts) (1.5ppts) 0.7%

Europe

欧洲

Unemployment Rate, SA

欧元区季调失业率

Sep

9月 7.5% 0.1ppts (0.5ppts) 7.4%

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, University of Michigan, Bloomberg

数据来源：中国国家统计局、密歇根大学、彭博。

Morning Research Focus

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Chinese Translation 中文翻译

[Table_Focus_chi] 行业和公司焦点

香港银行下调港元最优惠贷款利率 12.5 个基点

分析员：王俊浩

事件描述：在美联储宣布第三次下调联邦基金利率 25 个基点后，在汇丰银行的领头下，香港的商业银行昨日

将港元最优惠利率下调 12.5 个基点。

观点评论：由于香港银行同业拆借利率维持在相对较高的水平，而银行体系总结余保持在约 540 亿港元的水平，

我们对于香港银行在流动性未见明显改善下调最优惠利率感到惊讶。我们预计短期内不会进一步下调优惠利

率，主要考虑到：1）香港银行同业流动性仍相对紧张； 2）美联储主席鲍威尔在议息会议后的新闻发布会上

表示，美联储的货币政策可能维持现状，这意味着进一步降息的可能性不大。

考虑到最优惠贷款利率下调后每月按揭贷款还款的减少幅度很小（以 30 年的贷款计算，相当于每 100 万港元

贷款还款下降约 66 港元），我们预计最优惠利率的下调对住房需求的刺激作用将非常有限。相反，我们留意到

过去两周市场在政府为首次置业人士放宽按揭保险计划的楼价上限后，已出现购房热潮，对香港本地发展商有

利。

投资建议：我们重申对香港房地产行业 “跑赢大市”投资评级。 我们的行业首选股是信和置业（00083 HK），

投资评级为“收集”，目标价 13.80 港元。

中国建材 (03323 HK)：2019 年第三季度净利润同比增长 19.9%，略超预期

分析员：冯廷帅

事件描述：中国建材（“公司”）公布了其 2019 年第三季度未经审计的业绩：

2019年第三季度（人民币） 同比 2019年前三季度（人民币） 同比

收入 688.31 亿元 +15.4% 1,831.43 亿元 +16.8%

毛利润 189.56 亿元 +9.8% 527.55 亿元 +14.5%

股东净利 40.96 亿元 +19.9% 104.28 亿元 +36.1%

资料来源：公司、国泰君安国际。

观点评论：中国建材 2019 年第三季度业绩略好于我们的预期。单季收入同比增 15.4%至 688.31 亿元（人民币，

下同），好于我们的预期。我们认为主要原因之一是在高于预期的水泥产品销量增长，而其主要受中南地区和

华东地区强劲的出货量带动。受快速增长的营业成本拖累，毛利率同比下滑 1.4 个百分点至 27.5%。尽管销售

费用率同比增 0.4 个百分点至 5.5%，但管理费用率同比降 1.4 个百分点至 6.8%，因而经营费用水平整体略低

于预期。虽然整体债务规模较去年同期并无明显下降，但受益于利率水平的降低，财务费用同比下降 4.0%。

股东利润同比增 19.9%至 40.96 亿元，略好于我们的预期，主要得益于有效税率的降低。

投资建议：我们预计中国建材将在第四季度保持稳健经营。然而，主要的关注点之一仍然在于公司去杠杆的进

展。公司 100 亿元的年度降债计划将高度依赖于第四季度的努力。在自九月中旬的回调之后，我们认为公司目

前的估值基于其坚实的业绩而言具有吸引力。我们目前对公司的投资评级为“收集”，目标价为 7.46 港元。我们

或将在下一份公司报告中上调我们的盈利预测，并相应检讨我们的投资评级及目标价。

Morning Research Focus

See the last page for disclaimer 8 of 12

中国忠旺 (01333 HK)：2019 年度三季度总净利同比减少 39.2%

分析员：郭勇

事件描述：中国忠旺（“公司”）公布了 2019 年前 3 季度未经审计的财务结果，主要指标表现如下：

2019 年 3 季度（人民币） 变动% 2019 年 1-3 季度（人民币） 变动%

收入 5,750.5 百万 -18.2 18,650.4 百万 14.0

总盈利 754.9 百万 -39.2 2,220.0 百万 -11.5

每股盈利（人民币） n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

资料来源：公司。

观点评论：公司 2019 前三季度业绩差于市场一致预期和我们的估计，前三季度净利占我们全年预测的 47.6%。

前三季度公司铝加工材的销量同比增加 32.5% 至 759,153 吨，由于产品结构变化公司产品的平均毛利率减少

3.1 个百分点至 29.1%。前三季度铝合金模板的销量同比减少 20.2%至 188,219 吨，铝压延产品的销量同比增

加 124.2%至 331,761 吨。

投资建议：中国忠旺是公司亚洲领先的铝加工材开发商和制造商。公司在铝加工行业内已经建立了竞争优势。

我们预计公司将继续在铝加工行业处于领先地位。铝合金模板的生产彻底改变公司的产品结构并显著提升公司

的盈利能力。公司高价值铝板带的投产将是未来主义的利润驱动器，并将于公司的铝挤压产品形成补充和协同

效应。我们认为公司的增长前景是光明的。我们对公司的目标价是 4.87 港元，投资评级为“买入”。我们将会

下调我们的盈利预测。

[Table_Latest_chi] 最新报告

中国黄金国际(02099 HK):公司运营稳定，维持“中性”评级

评级： 中 性 6-18m 目标价: HK$7.00

分析员： 郭 勇 报告日期: 2019-10-31

报告摘要

金价和铜价在 2019 年三季度保持区间波动。铜价在 5,600 美元/吨-6,000 美元/吨之间波动，金价在 1,500 美元/盎司的价位

附近波动。

维持铜价和金价假设不变。我们预计全球铜市场在 2019 年和 2020 年将保持平稳，2019 年年度铜均价将在 6,100 美元/吨

左右。我们预计金价在 2019 年四季度将在 1,500 美元/盎司左右波动，年度均价将在 1,400 美元/盎司左右。

维持矿产品产量假设不变。在 2019 年，公司计划生产 21 万盎司矿产金和大约 59,870 吨矿产铜。长山壕矿金的产量预计

将维持在 145,000 盎司的水平，但甲玛矿的矿铜产量由于产能扩大将继续增长。

下调公司目标价至 7.00 港元，维持“中性”评级。

Morning Research Focus

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上海电气(02727 HK):2019 年前 9 个月盈利同比增 2.0%，重申“买入”

评级： 买 入 6-18m 目标价: HK$3.50

分析员： 朱俊杰 报告日期: 2019-10-31

报告摘要

2019 年前三季度盈利同比升 2.0%至人民币 22.12 亿元，差于预期。公司于第三季度的收入和净利润分别同比增长 19.5%

和下滑 12.8%。第三季度业绩差于预期。第三季度的毛利率同比回落 4.1 个百分点至 17.3%并将公司于前三季度的综合毛

利率推低至 19.0%，同比回落 1.0 个百分点。各业务分部的三季度运营数据未有披露。

2019 年前 9 个月的新增订单同比上升 17.7％至人民币 1,173 亿元。值得注意的是期内风电设备和环保设备的新增订单分

别同比激增了 100.5%和 274.0%至人民币 135.1 亿元和人民币 137.1 亿元。截至 2019 年 9 月底，公司的在手订单达人民

币 2,641.4 亿元（其中尚未生效订单达人民币 709.8 亿元），较 2018 年末的水平上升 14.7%。

国内于 2019 年前 9 个月对电源工程的投资同比上升 6.0%至人民币 1,797 亿元。其中，对火电/ 水电/ 核电/ 风电的电源

工程投资分别同比下降 28.9%/上升 30.2%/下降 29.7%/ 上升 72.8%。国内于前 9 个月对可再生能源的投资达到了期内总

电源工程投资额约 79%，同比上升 10 个百分点。

我们重申“买入”的投资评级但下调目标价至 3.50 港元。鉴于上海电气庞大的在手订单，持续的改革以及企业转型，我

们维持对上海电气较为乐观的看法。我们的新目标价相当于 15.0 倍/13.8 倍/12.7 倍的 2019-2021 年市盈率或 0.8 倍/0.8

倍/0.7 倍 2019-2021 年市净率。

快讯:美高梅中国(02282 HK):2019 年第 3 季度 EBITDA 同比增长 38.6%但未能达到我们的预期

评级： 买 入 6-18m 目标价: HK$13.90

分析员： Noah Hudson 报告日期: 2019-10-31

报告摘要

美高梅中国（以下简称“公司”）控股股东，美高梅国际酒店集团（MGM US），公布其 2019 年第 3 季度未经审计财务结

果（其中包括了公司的细分财务信息）。公司 2019 年第 3 季度主要财务指标如下：

表-1：美高梅中国未经审计关键财务指标

2019 年第三季度(港币) 同比 (%) 2019 年首 3 季度（港币） 同比 (%)

美高梅澳门收入 29.289 亿元 (14.0) 93.882 亿元 (9.4)

美狮美高梅收入 28.477 亿元 111.3 76.850 亿元 121.9

总收入 57.766 亿元 21.5 170.732 亿元 23.5

经调整 EBITDA* 15.485 亿元 38.6 46.253 亿元 35.1

资料来源：公司。

注：*经调整 EBITDA 为未计融资成本、所得税收益/开支、折旧及摊销、处置/撇销物业及设备、在建工程以及其他资产的收益/亏损、利息收入、净汇兑差额、

以股份为基础的报酬、开业前成本及企业支出（主要包括企业办公室的行政开支及向一间关联公司支付牌照费）前的利润。

在 2019 年第 3 季度，美高梅中国市场份额增加，总收入同比上升 21.5%至 57.77 亿港元，而第 3 季度澳门博彩业毛收入

同比下降 4.1%。美高梅中国 2019 年第 3 季度收入符合我们的预期（比预期好 0.3%）。强劲的收入增长主要是由于美狮美

高梅在 2018 年 2 月开业后，其业务运营不断扩大。公司主场地赌台赢额同比增长 47%，主要由于美狮美高梅于 2019 年

增加 25 张新赌台，以及赌台赢率上升 5.6 个百分点所致。贵宾赌台赢额同比增加 5%，主要由于美狮美高梅的贵宾博彩区

于 2018 年第 3 季度末开业以及贵宾赌台赢率有所上升所致。

美高梅中国 2019 年第 3 季度经调整 EBITDA 同比增长 38.6%至 15.49 亿港元，差于我们的预期 9.7%。主要由于美狮美

高梅的运营逐渐步入正轨，公司经调整 EBITDA 利润率同比增长 3.3 个百分点至 26.8%，但仍低于预期。在物业层面，美

狮美高梅的经调整 EBITDA 同比增长 433.3%至 6.929 亿港元，经调整 EBITDA 利润率为 24.3%（2018 年第 3 季度仅为

9.6%）。对于美高梅澳门而言，由于收入下降，经调整 EBITDA 同比下降 13.3%至 8.556 亿港元，经调整 EBITDA 利润率

Morning Research Focus

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为 29.2%，同比增加 0.2 个百分点，高于美狮美高梅。

由于公司盈利不及预期，我们可能会在下一份公司报告中下调我们的盈利预测和目标价。我们目前对美高梅中国的投资评

级为“买入”，目标价为 13.90 港元。美高梅中国的股价最新收报 12.46 港元。公司第 3 季度的博彩总收入增长大幅跑赢市

场，导致美高梅中国的市场份额从 2018 年第 2 季度的 7.8%增至 2019 年第 3 季度的 10.2%。然而，成本控制不及我们的

预期，因此公司的 EBITDA 没有到达我们的预测。

中国国航(00753 HK):2019 年第 3 季度因成本节省而增长，维持“收集”

评级： 收 集 6-18m 目标价: HK$7.54

分析员： 马守彰 报告日期: 2019-10-31

报告摘要

中国国航 2019 年第 3 季度净利润同比增长 4.4%至人民币 36.23 亿元; 大致符合预期。 公司通过节省成本来实现利润增

长，其中低油价和减少的海运保费使燃油成本下降。对民航发展基金的贡献减少也节省了约人民币 2 亿元。然而，由于

2019 年第 3 季度客运收益率下降拖累收入同比下降 2.3%，国内和国际航线均同比略有下降。净利率同比上升 0.6 个百分

点至 9.6%。

我们分别下调 2019/2020/2021 年净利润预测 12.0%/ 11.2%/ 12.1%。我们主要降低了客运收益率假设，以应对更具挑战

性的环境。管理层预计 2020 年国内/国际航线运力分别增长 6%/ 8%，运力增长的指引大致符合我们的预期。因此，我们

维持运力增长假设不变。

我们维持投资评级为“收集”，但因下调盈利而下调目标价至 7.54 港元。我们的目标价相当于 1.0 倍 2019 年市净率和 0.9

倍 2020 年市净率。由于估值偏低，我们仍然认为公司具有吸引力。我们的估值仅略低于其长期平均值，因此我们认为这

是适当的。

Morning Research Focus

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Research Department 研究部

Grace Liu 刘 谷 Head of Research, Market

Strategy, Petrochemicals

主管，市场策略、石化 grace.liu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 7516

Noah Hudson Noah Hudson Consumer (Hotels), Gaming 消费（酒店）、博彩 noah.hudson@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5441

Gary Wong 黄家玮 Environmental Protection,

Infrastructure

环保、基建 gary.wong@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2616

Kevin Guo 郭 勇 Raw Materials, Gas 原材料、燃气 kevin.guo@gtjas.com (86755) 2397 6671

Richard Cao 曹 柱 Banking 银行 caozhu013592@gtjas.com (86755) 2397 6870

Jun Zhu 朱俊杰 Solar, Electric Equipment,

Conglomerate

太阳能、电力设备、综合业务 junjie.zhu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 7592

Andrew Song 宋 涛 Consumer (Retailing),

Home Appliances

消费（零售）、家电 andrew.song@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5313

Terry Hong 洪学宇 Consumer (Apparel) 消费（服装） hongxueyu@gtjas.com (86755) 2397 6722

Johnny Wong 王俊浩 Property 房地产 johnny.wong@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5348

Toliver Ma 马守彰 Aviation,

Automobiles & Components

航空、汽车 toliver.ma@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5317

Barney Wu 吴宇扬 Consumer (Food & Beverage,

Household Products)

消费（食品饮料、日用品） wuyuyang@gtjas.com (86755) 2397 6680

Jake Wang 汪昌江 Market Strategy, Wind Energy&

others

市场策略、风电及其它 wangchangjiang@gtjas.com (86755) 2397 6675

Wiley Huang 黄重钧 Insurance, Fixed-income 保险、债券 wiley.huang@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5409

Kay Mai 麦梓琪 Health care 医药 maiziqi@gtjas.com (86755) 2397 6685

Danny Law 罗沛达 E-commerce 电子商务 danny.law@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 7768

Jason Zhou 周桓葳 Internet 互联网 jason.zhou@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5347

David Feng 冯廷帅 Machinery, Construction Materials 机械、建材 david.feng@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2113

Gin Yu 余劲同 Telecommunication Service &

Equipment

电信服务及设备 gin.yu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2130

Jack Liu 柳 晨 Property 房地产 chen.liu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2149

Andy Huang 黄凯鸿 Market Strategy 市场策略 kaihong.huang@gtjas.com.hk (86755) 2397 6702

Jack Wu 吴 狄 Market Strategy 市场策略 di.wu@gtjas.com.hk (86755) 2397 6718

Peter Shao 邵俊樨 Petrochemicals 石化 peter.shao@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5464

Kevin Zhuo 卓仕凯 Research Assistant 研究助理 shikai.zhuo@gtjas.com.hk (86755)2397 6725

Teddy Lin 林荣叶 Research Assistant 研究助理 rongye.lin@gtjas.com.hk (86755)2397 6692

Jerrimy Wang 王瀚 Research Assistant 研究助理 han.wang@gtjas.com.hk (86755) 2397 6756

Alfred Chen 陈傲 Research Assistant 研究助理 ao.chen@gtjas.com.hk (86755) 2397 6672

Gordon Gong 龚悦来 Research Assistant 研究助理 gordon.gong@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2603

Esabella Zhao 赵舒蔓 Research Assistant, Translator 研究助理、翻译员 zhaoshuman013399@gtjas.com (86755) 2397 6681

Penny Pan 潘凌蕾 Secretary, Translator 秘书、翻译员 penny.pan@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2632

Morning Research Focus

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Company Rating Definition

The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQ Composite Index

Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months

Rating Definition

Buy 买入 Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.

Accumulate 收集 Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.

Neutral 中性 Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral.

Reduce 减持 Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.

Sell 卖出 Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.

Sector Rating Definition

The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQ Composite Index

Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months

Rating Definition

Outperform 跑赢大市 Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable.

Neutral 中性 Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral.

Underperform 跑输大市 Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable.

[Table_DISCLOSUREOFINTERESTS] DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS

(1) Except for SHENZHEN INTERNATIONAL (00152 HK), the Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.

(2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for KAISA GROUP (01638 HK),GUOTAI JUNAN I (01788 HK),JXR (01951 HK),CHINA MINSHENG BANKING CORP.- H SHARES

(01988 HK),BANK OF GANSU (02139 HK),JINSHANG BANK (02558 HK),ZHONGLIANG HLDG (02772 HK),BINHAI INVESTMENT (02886 HK),CAM SCSMALLCAP (03157 HK),HAITIAN ANTENNA (08227 HK),Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.

(4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships with SMI HOLDINGS GROUP (00198 HK),CHINA TRAVEL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT HONG KONG LIMITED (00308 HK),CHINA GAS (00384 HK),GOME ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES (00493 HK),TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED (00780 HK),DONGJIANG ENVIRONMENTAL- H SHARES (00895 HK),CHINA MOBILE (00941 HK),MODERN LAND (01107 HK),POWERLONG REAL ESTATE (01238 HK),CHINA EVERBRIGHT GREENTECH LIMITED (01257 HK),CHINA SOUTH CITY (01668 HK),COLOUR LIFE SERVICES (01778 HK),PRINX CHENGSHAN (01809 HK),XIAOMI CORPORATION (01810 HK),CHINA RISUN GROUP (01907 HK),BAIC MOTOR- H SHARES (01958 HK),COUNTRY GARDEN (02007 HK),RONSHINE CHINA (03301 HK),CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION INTERNATIONAL (03311 HK),XIEZHONG INTERNATIONAL (03663 HK),MEITUAN DIANPING (03690 HK),HUISHANG BANK- H SHARES (03698 HK),CHINA AOYUAN PROPERTY (03883 HK),GREENTOWN CHINA (03900 HK) mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months.

(5) Guotai Junan and its group companies are not making a market in the securities mentioned in this Research Report. (6) Guotai Junan and its group companies have not employed an individual serving as an officer of any issuers mentioned in this Research

Report. There is no officer of any issuers mentioned in this Research Report associated with Guotai Junan and its group companies.

DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. © 2019 Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved. 27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza, 181 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong. Tel.: (852) 2509-9118 Fax: (852) 2509-7793 Website: www.gtjai.com