CHAPTER THREE: PROJECTIONS 3.1 Introduction The population projections presented in this report were derived from RUP software. RUP is cohort component population projection software package capable of projecting population by single years of age, one year at a time. The Tanzania National Population Projection was projected by using RUP for 22 years from 2003 under two scenarios that is with and without HIV/AIDS assumptions. Specific information presented in this chapter include: projected total population by sex in single and five-year age groups; population growth rates; crude birth rates; age specific fertility rates; TFR; CDR; infant and child mortality rates; life expectancy; and net migration; as well as population pyramid. These projections are presented for Tanzania Mainland and Tanzania Zanzibar, whereas Tanzania Total is the aggregate of the two populations. 3.2 Highlights of Population Projections Results This section discusses all demographic indicators for midyear population between 2003 and 2025 with and without HIV/AIDS assumptions. 3.2.1 Population Growth

The projections without HIV/AIDS assumptions show that Tanzania population growth rate will decrease from 3.3 percent in 2003 (with a population of 34,876,231) to 2.9 percent in 2025 (with a population of 68,794,180). The projected population growth rate for Tanzania Mainland decreases from 3.3 percent in 2003 to 2.9 percent in 2025. The projected population growth rate for Tanzania Zanzibar decreases from 3.2 percent in 2003 to 2.1 percent in 2025. Whilst with HIV/AIDS assumptions the projections indicate that Tanzania population growth rate will increase at a rate of 2.9 percent in 2003 (with total population of 34,719,999) while in 2025 the increase will be 2.6 percent (with population of 63,516,735). 3.2.2 Life Expectancy at Birth

Life expectancy at birth for Tanzania total will increase from 56 years in 2003 to 64 years in 2025 for both sexes in the absence of HIV/AIDS assumptions. On Tanzania Mainland it is envisaged that in the absence of AIDS the life expectancy at birth for both sexes will increase from 56 years in 2003 to 64 years in 2025. For male population life expectancy at birth will increase from 54 years in year 2003 to 62 years in 2025 while for female population the life expectancy at birth will increase from 58 years in 2003 to 67 years in 2025. On Tanzania Zanzibar life expectancy at birth is expected to be slightly higher than in Tanzania Mainland. For both sexes, life expectancy at birth will increase from 62 years in 2003 to 69 years in 2025. With HIV/AIDS assumptions Tanzania population will experience less increase in life expectancy at birth for both sexes between year 2003 and 2025. Life expectancy at birth for Tanzania total shows an increase from 48 years in 2003 to 57 years in 2025 for both sexes.

3.2.3 Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)

The Infant Mortality rate is expected to decline from 78 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2003 to 45 deaths per 1,000 live births for both sexes in the absence of HIV/AIDS. For Tanzania Mainland infant mortality rate will decline from 78 deaths per 1000 live births in 2003 to 45 deaths per 1000 live births in 2025. In Tanzania Zanzibar infant mortality will also decline from 79 deaths per 1000 live births in 2003 to 43 deaths per 1000 live births in 2025. With HIV/AIDS, infant mortality rate for Tanzania will decline from 86 deaths per 1000 live births in 2003 to 50 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2025 for both sexes. Similar pattern of Infant mortality rate is observed in Tanzania Mainland. 3.2.4 Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

The projected TFR in 2003 is 5.7 children per woman and 4.7 children per woman in 2025 for both Tanzania Total and Tanzania Mainland. In Tanzania Zanzibar the estimated TFR is 5.3 children per woman in 2003 and 3.6 children per woman in 2025. It should be noted that these figures are for without HIV / AIDS. 3.3 Projections The projection results are presented for Tanzania Total, Tanzania Mainland and Tanzania Zanzibar under two scenarios – with and without HIV/AIDS assumptions. The results are contained in table 3A to table 6B below.