Designed by: Garry Golden Forward Elements

Tapping Our Inner Futurist

The Future of Work & Learning

Designed for:

Taking Action Drivers of Change Foresight 101 & In the News

Learning… Work… Society…Economy 2004-2014 vs 2014-2024

LUNCH

In the News

Ben Sherman is partnering with Mozilla OpenBadges to create a training program that recognizes skills learned within the company and outside formal HR programs.

True False

How do we tell stories about our skills and life experiences?

Era of Institution

Disruptions of Books & Industrial Work

Disruptions of Web & Knowledge Economy

Era of Apprenticeship

Era of Learner

Data-driven Innovations to Empower Lifelong Learning?

Learning Records Store (LRS) Personal Data Locker (PDL)

Activity Streams <I Did This>

Sports Revolutions has developed a basketball with sensors to show players how to improve their performance.

True False

How do I stand at the intersections of change?

Intersection: Sports, Sensors & Behavior Change

Data Analytics User Experience Design Adaptive Design Behavior Change Neuroscience Policy Civicware Leadership Energy Natural Resources Sensing Technologies Software Robotics

Aging Demographics Millennial Family Formation Youth Culture Urbanization South-to-South Economy Cities Health-Wellness Food Textiles – Clothing Manufacturing Insurance Transportation–Mobility Education – Training Government

Barclays bank has developed a empathy-based training program that uses an mobility impairment suit to simulate the experience felt by aging and disabled populations

True False

How do we learn to see the world through the eyes of others?

AGNES Age Gain Now Empathy System

IBM Watson is piloting an ‘intelligent assistant’ for North Face. The application will allow customers to ask open-ended questions and await product recommendations.

True False Human + Software Agent Leads to Best Decisions

Network that Supports ‘Predictive’ & ‘Prescriptive’ Service Design Business Models, Relationships & Skills for Anticipatory Experiences

Who is this “Futurist”?

CONE OF PLAUSIBILITY

Expected future

Past Present

Plan A

Scenario B

Scenario C

Scenario E

Planning for Multiple Outcomes & Multiple Horizons

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Every day I make an effort to go toward what I don't understand. Yo-Yo Ma

Continued Growth Decline / Collapse

Disciplined / Constrained Transformed

What is the most likely future for __________?

Foresight 101: Four Future Scenarios

FOUR FUTURES VIA: THREE DRIVERS OF CHANGE

Four Futures based on Trends, Events & Choices

Trends (Continuities)

Plausible Future

Forecasts

Choices (Discontinuities)

Events (Discontinuities)

Possible Futures

Preferred Futures

Scenarios

Visions

Type of Driver Shape of Driver Outcome Tools - Techniques

FOUR FUTURES VIA: ERA-BASED ANALYSIS

Four Futures based on Anticipating Long Waves and Market Transitions

Performance over Time S-Curve Shape of ‘Major’ & ‘Minor’ Eras

?

Slow Change ‘Emerging’

Rapid Change

‘Accelerating’

Plateau of Change

‘Mainstreaming’

Disruptions lead to Next Era!!!

Eras of Innovation

Mobility

Human / Animals

Cars

Boats

Planes /Rockets

What is next?

Rail

•Autonomous Vehicles

•Last-mile

•Sub-orbital

2004 2007 2010 2015

2020

2025

2040

‘Driver to Captain’ Era of Active Assist

S-Curve Impact on Cost Structure & User Behavior (Capabilities)

Eras of Manufacturing

Clay Stone Wood

Plastics

Copper Bronze Iron-Steel

Silicon

What is next?

•Nanostructured Materials

•Biomaterials

•Additive Manufacturing

1990 2009 2010 2020

2025

2050

Characterization: Passive Nanostructures

Functionalization: Passive Nanostructures

Functionalization: Active Nanostructures

S-Curves & Reducing Barriers to Entry

Manufacturing Era Shaped by Low Cost, High Performance Materials

Nanotubes

Nanosheets (Graphene)

Nanoparticles

Catalysis Sensors/Controllers

Coatings & Thin Films Composites

FOUR FUTURES VIA: ERA-BASED ANALYSIS

Trends, Events & Choices

Thinking Strategically about Talent Alignment to Market Transitions Value Chains (Creation & Capture) Customers Dynamics

(Empowered – Disintermediation)

Technology Investments Partnership Strategies Competitive Threats

(Lower Barriers; Loss Leadership-Lock-in)

Organization Culture (Patience – Thought Leadership)

Taking Action Drivers of Change Learning & Work

Foresight 101 & In the News

Strategic Career Questions

• How often will I have to upgrade my skills?

• How do I position myself as a lifelong learner and innovation-ready?

• Will I work within a company – or within a talent ecosystem?

• Will I be creating products based on demand— or creating demand for new products?

• How do I find innovative mentors & partners?

Example of T-Shaped Breadth Communication / Storytelling Collaboration within a Network Ethnography / Sociology Data Science & Visualization Analytics & Modeling (Graph Databases)

Psychology / Behavior Change User Experience Design Business Model Design Policy – Regulations

De

pth

of

Sub

ject

Exp

ert

ise

Ability to Apply Broadly Across Situations & Disciplines

I versus T-shaped Description of Ourselves

Portfolio Presence Resume

Learner Storytelling: Portfolios & Reputation for Job-Seekers

Resume Storytelling: Consider Automatic Evaluation

Resume Storytelling: Look for Template Help on Design

Resume Storytelling: Get Inspired by Design Field

Old School Formats Fabric Format

Resume Storytelling: Visual Communication

Resume Storytelling: Experiment with Something Different?

Portfolio Presence Resume

Learner Storytelling: Portfolios & Reputation for Job-Seekers

Portfolio Storytelling: Platforms for Portfolios

Themes & Templates Suited for Portfolios

Portfolio Storytelling

What do I included: Stories from Class

& Internship Projects

Lessons Learned from Successes & Failures

Thoughts on Changing Dynamics within the your key Industry

Associations with Communities of Practice

Portfolio Storytelling – Micro-credentials

https://www.diigo.com/user/garrygolden/badges

Portfolio Identity: Teach a Course or Start (Join) a Campaign

Portfolio Presence Resume

Presence Storytelling: Tips for Proper Presence

Unify REAL Profile Names & Logins

Linked In & Twitter Profiles Value = APIs

Create More Content if You Can’t Delete Be a ‘Gardener’ – Weed out, Grow Good

Shift Friend Feeds into one or two platforms (Be more anonymous there)

Shut down - Silly + Coded Email IDs concreterose82@gmail.com sweetnsour@hotmail.com

Or Just Yourself

Presence Storytelling: Assessing Current State

Social Media Analytics & Deep+Learning

NYU Yann LeCun

Platform for: Self-reflection Art Privacy Strategy

Social Media & Personal Analytics

Social Media & Personal Analytics

Presence Storytelling: Balanced Content About Yourself

Who You Follow / Followed By Sharing Insights & Self-less Tweets

What You Say – Believe Isolate Feeds of Friends (Private or Multiple Accounts) from Professional Identity

Presence Storytelling: Create Thought-provoking Content

Images / Videos Screencasts; Blog Post Images Concise Presentations

Content on: Industry Trends

Questions about Future

What to watch?

*What you are thinking about, not who you are!

Presence Storytelling: Balanced Content About Your Insights

Comments Does it pass the ‘Grandmother – Mom Test ?’ Would I want to be quoted on the record?

Avoid: Politics & Current Events

Focus: Industry & Professional Level Conversations

Presence Storytelling: Attend (Watch) Conferences & Events

Capture Conversations, Highlight Insights & Build Relationships

Skillsets & Mindsets

My understanding of markets and changing dynamics of consumers?

U.S. Regional Economies: Joel Garreau’s Cultural Communities

Teaching students to dissect regional dynamics for

opportunities and alignment

U.S. Regional Economies: Richard Florida’s Creative Class Lens

Data-driven Insights & Adaptive Automation

Predictive What might happen..

Prescriptive (Adaptive) What should happen..!

Descriptive What happened…

Data-driven Learning & Work Experiences

Network that Supports Adaptive Lifelong Learning Experiences

Transparency & Accountability: Adaptive Workflows?

Personal & Community Data

Connected Device Data Products that can Track & Change Behavior

Mainstreaming of Quantified Self Culture & Internet-of-Things? Service Design via Opt-in Access to Data Streams

Data-driven Automation and Adaptive Work Experiences

CloverNet Operations Customer Experience

Staff Productivity

Products Designed to Improve User Behavior How do we rethink our solutions set in the coming age of product-based instruction & on-demand learning in manufacturing & retail work settings? Shift: POS to Point of Learning Devices

How are the biggest players trying to re-frame the future?

GE’s Industrial Internet

What if industrial customers sold access to real-time market data?

What new business models might emerge? (e.g. Managed Services)

Internet of Things Sifting Out All the Noise

Graph-based Understanding of Connections

www.andrew.cmu.edu/user/lawrencw/

Era of the Graph

Learning based on Understanding Connections

Link Graph

Interest Graph

Social Graph

Learning? Health? Transportation? Financial? City?

?

Graph Databases: •Graphs provide an intuitive way to model, understand, predict, and influence the behavior of complex, interrelated social, economic, and physical networks. •Tracking relationships and making matches across a network of people, organizations, events (time), MDM, locations and data •Graphs: social, intent, consumption, interest, mobile, Applications: CRM; Social Network Analysis; Market Structure Analysis; Logistics; Bio Data; Spatial Analysis; Recommendations (Prescriptive Analytics); Product catalogs; Locative-apps Insurance Government Services → Elections Transportation-Transit (Hubway Hack)

State DOTs – Reinvent commuting Logistics – Delivery (eBay Shutl) Enterprise HR-L&D Legal-Law (Patentula) Machinery - Equipment Civic-Culture Orgs (Parks; Museums)

Health Education - Learning Supply Chains Retail including indoor navigation Agriculture - Farming Food (FoodGenius) Weather – Marketing

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Learning More Drivers of Change Warm up

Your Next Step: I want to become a Futurist “We need to be ahead of these trends! Sign me up!!”

Your Job: Socializing Ideas Start a Signals Team

(Social, Technology, Environment, Economy, Politics)

Establish Monthly Innovations Publication

Create a shareable List of 50 People to Follow

Your Next Step: I want to Encourage Others “Interesting stuff. No time, but I want to empower my team.”

Your Job: Create Conditions to Support an Intrapreneurial Culture

Lower Barriers to Pilots & Partnerships

Establish Programs for Smart Risk-taking: [e.g. Failfaire & Challenges]

Your Next Step: I am not convinced by this snake oil salesman “Not our future. Let’s get back to basics.”

Your Job: Show how futuristic scenarios can be wrong

Gather, Synthesize & Challenge These Assumptions

Rally Stakeholders to Return to a Classic Era of Learning & Work

Garry Golden www.garrygolden.com (Two Rs)

garrygolden@gmail.com

garrygolden.com/wpunj2014

Questions or Comments?