Welcome to BFP-IGB Meeting24-25 Feb.2009, Surajkund, India

Targeting Double Dividends in Indo-Gangetic Basin:

Improving Water Productivity and Alleviating Poverty

AVHRR-LULCSub-basin boundary

Content

• Purpose of the Workshop

• Logic and Structure of BFPs

• Brief tour of the Indus-Gangetic realities

• Brief review of WP content

-WP1- Water Poverty

-WP2- Water Resources

-WP3- Water Productivity

-WP4-Institutions

-WP5- Interventions….Change

-WP6- Knowledge Sharing and Impact

• Structure of the Meeting

Purpose of the WorkshopPurpose of the Workshop

••Update and SharingUpdate and Sharing

--WhatWhat’’s been done in 2008 and befores been done in 2008 and before

••Reflection & DiscussionReflection & Discussion

--Are we moving on the right track with the right speed?Are we moving on the right track with the right speed?

--What works, What doesnWhat works, What doesn’’tt

--How the project can create the desired impact?How the project can create the desired impact?

••Plan for the FuturePlan for the Future

--What we will do in 2009 and beyond?What we will do in 2009 and beyond?

Outputs need to delivered and the impact createdOutputs need to delivered and the impact created…………

Water productivityCrop water productivity, kg/m3

Water value-adding $/m3

Net value/costs

Water availabilityClimate water account

Water allocation water hazards

Logic and Structure

What is the water balance?How well is the water used?

Policies and InstitutionsWater

Water rights water policies

Governance Power

Farming

Land rights

Infrastructure

Supply chainsWho ‘handles’ the water? Who enables farmer to improve productivity?

Poverty analysisRural poverty details

Water-food related factorsWhat links water, food and poverty?

InterventionsWEAP Trend analysis

Land use change analysisWhat are foreseeable risks and opportunities for change?

BackgroundDemography Rural poverty

Economic overview AgricultureWhat is the overall situation?

Targeting Double Dividends in IndoTargeting Double Dividends in Indo--Gangetic Basin: Gangetic Basin: Improving Water Productivity and Alleviating PovertyImproving Water Productivity and Alleviating Poverty

Indian States Hunger

Score

Bihar 27 Haryana 20

Punjab 14 Rajasthan 21

Uttar Pradesh 22 West Bengal 21 Madhya Pradesh 31

Countries Rate Scaling Performance

China 7.1 5.0-9.9 MODERATE

Nepal 20.6 Pakistan 21.7

India 23.7 Bangladesh 25.2

20-29.9 ALARMING

Ethiopia 31 > 30 EXTREMELY ALARMING

Source:Welt Hunger Hilfe, IFPRI, Concern Worldwide (October 2008)

ACTION FIELDS OUTPUTS

Poverty Analysis

• Mapping sub- national poverty

• Dynamics of spatial and temporal variation of poverty

• Gender inequality and water use

Water Availability

access analysis

• Water accounting in the sub-basins of the four

countries

• Detailed water balances for representative sub-basins

Water Productivity

analysis

• Spatial variation of agriculture water productivity

• Access spatial linkages with agriculture input, socio-

economic and environmental factors and poverty

• Sub basin assessment of water productivity assessment

Water Institutions

analysis

• Comparative assessment of existing institutions and

policies

• Pro-poor Agriculture Water Management (AWM)

strategies

• Energy- irrigation nexus and fishery cultivation in the

eastern basin

• Transboundary issues and legislating context

Intervention analysis • Overview of interventions in productivity improvements

and poverty alleviation

• Impact assessment of potential intervention

Knowledge base

platform

• Developing web portal for accumulation and sharing of

existing and generated knowledge

• Developing decision support system

• Targeted dissemination and learning from common

experiences

"What IGB - BFP will do"

“Putting Action Fields together”

KHARIFKHARIF RABIRABI

Trends in water productivity in rice, Bangladesh Districts (1968-2004)

“Preliminary Results”

“Challenges in IGB”

FOCUS Low water productivity abreast with high poverty and environmental degradationCHALLENGES

•High heterogeneity•Transboundary issues•High dependency on groundwater•Dependency on glacier/ice melt & climate change impacts•Demographic pressure•High rural population & dependency on natural resources

CONSTRAINTS•Lack of effective institutions•Poor information base•Inadequate targeted interventions•Availability and accessibility of information

TARGETS•Water-land-gender-poverty relationships•Assessing water supply and demand•Mapping water productivity•Setting the institutional frame for an efficient and equitable water use•Identifying potential interventions•Generating Knowledge platform

OUTCOMES Making informed decisions for improving water productivity, alleviating poverty, and reducing human deprivation

IGB Profile• Basin area 225 million-ha• Population (2001) 747 million• Percentage rural population (2001)India 75Pakistan 68Nepal 86Bangladesh 80• Percentage of population below Poverty line (2000) 30.5• Net cropped area 114 million-ha• Water use in agriculture 91.4%

“Indo-Gangetic Basin” “Hunger Index of IGB Countries”

Parameters Bangla. India Nepal Pakistan

Acc. to improved water resources,%

74 86 90 91

Acc.to improved sanitation, % 39 33 35 59

Per cap. Electricity consumption, kWh

145 594 91 493

Popu. Below national poverty line

49.8 28.6 30.9 32.6

Agriculture, % of GDP 20.1 18.3 38.2 21.6

Per capita GDP (USD) 406 640 252 632

IRWR (m3/cap./yr) 688 1149 7539 325

SocioSocio--economic and water status of economic and water status of

IG Basin countriesIG Basin countries

Parameter Indus GBM

Resource Stress (scarcity, variation)

0.49 0.39

Development Pressure (exploitation, DW inaccessibility)

0.51 0.17

Ecological Insecurity ( water pollution, ecosystem deterioration)

0.80 0.57

Management Challenges (WU inefficiency, Sani. inaccess., Conflict manage)

0.57 0.65

Vulnerability Index 0.59 0.45

GDP/m3 of water use 3.34* 3.47*

*Global average:$8.6/m3; Avg five top food producers(Bra,Chi,Fra,Mex,US):$ 23.8/m3

Source: Babel and Wahid(2008)( Freshwater under Threat: South Asia)

Freshwater under ThreatFreshwater under Threat

January, 1984 (Rabi crop) May, 1984 (driest period) September, 1984 (Kharif crop-wettest period)

January, 2000 (Rabi crop) May, 2000 (driest period) September, 2000 (kharif crop-wettest period)

Scaled

NDVI

Biomass Dynamics in Indus and Ganges

Basin level scale using AVHRR Mega Dataset

Flooding in the Ganges Basin Flooding in the Ganges Basin

Damages Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan

Deaths 52,033 55,656 5,637 8,877

Population affected (million)

304.63 763.99 2.98 37.69

Homeless4219724

13210000

84925 4234415

Injured 102390 1561 1072 1981

Estimated Cost (US$ M)

12038.4 29417.2 0.977 2865.2Period

60-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 00-08

Nu

mb

er o

f fl

ood

even

ts

0

50

100

150

200

250Eastern Asia

SouthEast Asia

South Asia

West Asia

WP1: Poverty and Water Poverty AnalysisWP1: Poverty and Water Poverty Analysis

UpaliUpali, Stefanos, Gias, Stefanos, Gias……..Madar..Madar

Poverty analysis package reviews and Poverty analysis package reviews and

analyzes the existing poverty and wateranalyzes the existing poverty and water--

povertypoverty--gender information in order to bridge gender information in order to bridge

the gap/s between aggregate and specific the gap/s between aggregate and specific

analyses of poverty; illustrate the links analyses of poverty; illustrate the links

between interbetween inter--sectoral uses of water and sectoral uses of water and

links between water and other determinants links between water and other determinants

of poverty.of poverty.

Trends of Poverty Trends of Poverty

Spatial variation of rural poverty in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal in 2000

Water, Land and Poverty NexusWater, Land and Poverty Nexus

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40

60

80

100

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HC

R a

nd

% A

rea (

%)

HCR 1999-2000

Net irrigatedarea-% of net

sown area

Groundwaterirrigated area

- % of total

Rural head count ratio and net irrigated and groundwater irrigated

area

Rural head count ratio across land holding classes

0

15

30

45

60

La

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all

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Me

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Land holding size

HC

R (

%)

India Pakistan Bangladesh Nepal

Rural head count ratio across lad holding classes

WP2: Water AvailabilityWP2: Water Availability

LunaLuna, Upali, Asad, Ambili , Upali, Asad, Ambili …………..

Water availability

( How much and where?)

Climate ( and its Change) Water account

Water allocation Water hazards

What is the water balance?

Whole Basin Indus and Gangetic Basin Sub-Basins

Major challenge: inaccessible river flow data, transboundary nature

• PODIUM-Sim for the whole IG Basin

•WEAP Modelling for individual Ganges and Indus basins and scenario building

•SWAT/ SWAP Models for Sub-Basins

IGB basins Per capita water resources (m3/person)

1990 2000 2025 2050

Indus- India 97 2487 2109 1590 1732Indus- Pakistan 190 1713 1332 761 545Ganga - India 663 1831 1490 969 773

TRWR

(km3)

Water Resources Indus Ganges Total IGB (India)

Average annual surface water potential (km3) 73.3 523.0 596.3

Estimated Utilizable flow excluding ground water (km3) 46.0 250.0 296.0

Total replenishable ground water resources (km3) 26.5 171.0 197.5

Per Capita available water (m3) 2382 1951 2166.5

River Basin

Alluvium/ Unconsolidated Rocks

Hard Rocks

Total

Indus 1,334.9 3.3 1,338.2

Ganga 7,769.1 65 7,834.1

Static fresh ground water resource (km3) of IG Basin

Water resources potential and availability of the Indian portion of IGB

TRWR and per capita water resources in the Indus and Gangetic

Study the effect of upstream water resource development and as well as the influence of land use change on the hydrology and water balance of the Gorai River Catchment

Gorai-River Catchment

0

100

200

300

400

500

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

Flo

w (

MC

M)

1965-75 1990-99

Average monthly inflow to the Gorai Catchment measured at Gorai railway-bridge at two time periods

WP3: Water Productivity AnalysisWP3: Water Productivity Analysis

Cai, BharatCai, Bharat, Upali, Gias, Susana, Asad, Upali, Gias, Susana, Asad

Water Productivity• Basin performance on agril. water

utlisation- Crop (livestock, fish ) water productivity kg/m3

- Water value-adding $/m3

- Net value/costs

Factors affecting water productivity

Scope for WP Improvement

How well is the water used?

A “crop dominance map” of namely year 2008 shows major crops rice and wheat area, and other mixed croplands. Watering sources are also given for IGB map.

Introd.

Data

LULC

Prod.

Water

Results

Plan

Crop Dominance Map

Water Productivity Maps

Introd.

Data

LULC

Prod.

Water

Results

Plan

Rice productivity (kg/m3)

Mean AVG SDV Min Max

0.618 0.618 0.306 0.09 2.5

Other Studies completed, ongoing…….

• Spatio-temporal analysis of district level rice productivity in Bangladesh

• Water productivity in Rechna-Doab in Pakistan

• Fish water productivity and poverty in Bangladesh

• District-level foodgrain water productivity for India

WP4: Institutional AnalysisWP4: Institutional Analysis

( ( TushaarTushaar, Aditi, Dhruba, Sanjiv, Aditi, Dhruba, Sanjiv……RPS)RPS)

Policies and Institutions

Water

Water rights Water policies

Governance Energy policies

Farming

Land rights Infrastructure

Supply chains

Who ‘handles’ the water? What enables farmer to improve productivity?

Understanding the impact of selected economic and legal variables

8-10 m ha

3-5

Impact of rising diesel

prices on agricultural water use

Extent and cost of different sources of irrigation in India

Additional Studies……

• Water Control and Land-Lease Markets in India and Nepal

• Policy and Legal Analysis for IG basin Countries

WP5: Analysis of InterventionsWP5: Analysis of Interventions

((BharatBharat, Rajinder,Cai,Asad, Gias..), Rajinder,Cai,Asad, Gias..)

Set of physical, institutional

and policy level

interventions having

potential of significantly

improving productivity and

livelihoods

•Water allocation analysis

•Land use change analysis

•Best water management

practices analysis

Some potential interventionsSome potential interventions………………....

• Resource conservation (including laser land leveling) technologies in western IG basin

•Lining of water courses in IBIS (Pakistan)

•Multiple water use systems in Eastern Gangetic basin

•Improved fisheries management in Bangladesh

•Making optimum use of areas afflicted with salinity and waterlogging

•Potential of improved water management practices in

Eastern Gangetic basin

WP6: Knowledge Management and Impact WP6: Knowledge Management and Impact

Pathways Pathways (Matin, Bharat and all)(Matin, Bharat and all)

Component Function

Data Management Data acquisition, Collation of spatial data, prepare metadata

Access to existing knowledge

Knowledge harvesting, Sharing

Knowledge Development

Investigation, analysis, synthesis

Application Informed Decision making

Knowledge

Dissemination

Publication, communication, Knowledge portal development

Project Work Packages - Relationship

WP-6: Knowledge management

WP-5: InterventionAnalysis

WP-1: Understand the nature and location

of water poverty

WP-2: Understand water availability

WP-3: Understand water productivity across

the basin

WP-4: InstitutionalAnalysis

IMPACT PATHWAY – NETWORK MAP – Nepal

IWMI

CPWF

☺

WB, UN UNDP

2 �

DOI/CBS/DIHM/NARC

1 ☺

UNIV’s☺

FO/WUA/WG1 ☺

Farmers/ WG1 ☺

NGO’s/Consultants

1 ☺

PC Nepal

3 �

WECS2 �

District level GO/INGO’s2 �

PSC

RFAI

2 ☺

MOWR2 �

GWB

2 ☺

MOLD

2 ☺

WSDA

2 ☺

MOA

2 ☺

Green – Funding agency, Blue – Research partner, Red- Scale out of products on the ground, Black – Scale up of products at the policy level

☺-Receptive�-Neutral�-No so receptive

Numbers show degree of importance for change

Structure of the MeetingStructure of the Meeting

• After this Session, session on Water Poverty followed by lunch

• In all there shall be six sessions devoted to each of the work packages

•In each sessions there shall be few in-house presentations and some very interesting presentations by the potential partners.

•Style- highly relaxed and informal

•Today evening- we shall have a relaxation hour followed by dinner

•Tomorrow morning the sessions shall begin at 0900 and hope to be completed by 1630 hours.

Tushaar SHAH

�Taming the Anarchy:Groundwater Governance

in South Asia

� Appointment as IWMI Fellow

Congrats!!!

Madar SamadMadar Samad

RegionalDirector:

SouthASIA

UPALI AMARASINGHE

Promotion ,Publication and Providential Windfall $$$$$$

ADITI MUKHERJEE

GDN Award, Canberra

For Best Research Paper

AndMainstreaming

with IWMI !!!!!!!

Peter McCornick and Alok Sikka

Moving from BFP-IGB Basin Coordinator to NRAAI

From IWMI with love to

Duke University,

NC

THANK YOU VERY MUCH !!!