[task 1 1] analysis of the current energy situation in the gms countries

Analysis of the Current Energy Situation for GMS Countries

Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion

ByAssociate Prof. Dr. Pham Hoang Luong

Dr. Nguyen Thi Mai AnhDr. Do Tien Minh

International Dissemination Workshop17 September 2015, Bangkok

Funded by UK Research Councils’ Energy Program, the department for International Development (DFID) and the Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC), and managed by the Engineering and

Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)

Analysis of the Current Energy Situation for GMS Countries


ContentsDescription of Task 1Analysis ResultsSome Key Findings and Conclusions

Description of Task 1


Objectives: To obtain baseline information and an assessment of the currentenergy situation for GMS countries

Subtask 1.1: To analyze historical development of energy consumption and energy efficiency for GMS countries

Subtask 1.2: To project energy demand with special focus on new modern energy consumers using LEAP model

Subtask 1.3: To analyze energy data at the end-user level to see the data availability for setting baselines

Analysis Results


1. Historical development of energy demand in GMS countries1.1 Energy consumption at national level

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Figure 1: Total final energy consumption by GMS countriesSource: (MECON Project Team Report, 2013)

Analysis Results


1. Historical development of energy demand1.1 Energy consumption at national level

Figure 2: Share of sectoral energy consumption in GMS countriesSource: (IEA, 2014) and (MECON Project Laos Team’s Report, 2014)

* Data for Cambodia is available from 1995 only

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Agriculture Commercial Industry Residential Transport

Analysis Results


1. Historical development of energy demand1.1 Energy consumption at national level

Figure 3: Share of fuel mix in GMS countriesSource: (IEA, 2014) and (MECON Project Laos Team Report, 2014)


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Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Geothermal Biofuels and waste Electricity Heat

Analysis Results


1. Historical development of energy demand1.2 Energy consumption at household’s level

Figure 4: Household’s energy consumption in GMS countriesSource: (IEA, 2014) and (MECON Project Laos Team Report, 2014)


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Analysis Results



Figure 5: Share of household’s energy consumption by fuel in GMS countriesSource: (IEA, 2014) and (MECON Project Laos Team Report, 2014)


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Coal Oil product Natrural Gas Bio-fuels and waste Electricity

Analysis Results



Figure 6: Electricity consumption in GMS countriesSource: (IEA, 2014) and (MECON Project Laos Team Report, 2014)


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Analysis Results



Figure 7: Share of household’s electricity consumption in total national electricity consumption in GMS countries

Source: (IEA, 2014) and (MECON Project Laos Team Report, 2014)* Data for Cambodia is available from 1995 only

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Analysis Results


2. Status of Energy Efficiency in GMS countries2.1 Energy intensity at national level

Figure 8: Energy intensities of the GMS countriesSource: (MECON Project Team Report, 2014)


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Analysis Results


2. Status of Energy Efficiency2.2. Energy efficiency at household’s level

Figure 9: Household’s energy consumption per capita GMS countriesSource: (IEA, 2014) and (MECON Project Laos Team Report, 2014)


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Analysis Results


2. Status of Energy Efficiency2.2. Energy efficiency at household’s level

Figure 10: Household’s electricity consumption per capita GMS countriesSource: (IEA, 2014) and (MECON Project Laos Team Report, 2014)


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Analysis Results


2. Status of Energy Efficiency2.3 Energy efficiency targets and policies• All GMS countries have taken steps to improve energy efficiency. The

range of adopted policies and measures vary among those countries:- All GMS countries have energy efficiency policies and strategies- Limited application of MEPS in Thailand and Vietnam- Energy label is mandatory for some products in Thailand and

Vietnam but volunteer in other countries- Except Thailand, ESCOs have not been established in remaining

countries• Barriers to Energy Efficiency improvement are:

- Narrow focus (without consideration of economy-wide impacts)- Lesser role for mandatory measures, incentives and practical implementation

- Distortion of energy price caused by cross-subsidy - Lack of awareness and expertise

Analysis Results


4. Availability of energy data for setting baselineData Cambodia Laos Myanmar Thailand Vietnam

International Domestic International Domestic International

Domestic International Domestic International Domestic

GDP IEA UNESCAP IEA IEA IEA GSO

Population IEA LSB IEA WB IEA GSO

Family size LSB NESDP GSO

Poverty rate LSB WB GSO

Private consumption UNESCAP WB GSO

Energy consumption IEA MEM IEA IEA

Electricity consumption IEA MEM IEA IEA

Electrification rate MEM WB EVN

EE of Appliances Survey

Rate of EE appliances Survey

Energy consumed by appliances

Survey

Some Key findings and Conclusions


• GMS countries have experienced:- a sharp increase in energy consumption which are driven by economic growth, population growth, industrialization, urbanization and change in people’s living style. - a big change in the way that the energy was used, both fuel structure and energy-efficient technology application

• For the same reasons mentioned above, GMS countries will continue to face the increase in energy demand in the future. If these no appropriate policy measure taken place, this would invite some big challenges including insecurity of energy supply , environmental pollutions and socio-economic problems

• There are many opportunities and rooms for Energy efficiency improvement in GMS countries. The range of adopted policies and measures include regulations, market-based and financial instruments, and information and awareness measures.

• There is a need for regular updating energy data through surveys and statistical data collection system

[task 1 1] analysis of the current energy situation in the gms countries

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