BESC 320 – Water and Bioenvironmental Science(Water & climate change; 2 Mar 2018)

Global warming may exacerbate issues with water-related sources of lethal and sub-lethal effects: http://www.psr.org/environment-and-health/climate-change/results-impacts/water-quality-and-waterborne.html

Class brainstorm—what determines global thermal balance?

• Many areas, both in the United States and globally, experience more intense precipitation as a result of climate change. Much of this falls as heavy rainstorms. Flooding often follows such storms and can jeopardize water quality.

• In rural areas, runoff picks up animal wastes, pesticides, and fertilizers.

• In cities, floodwaters not only carry toxins and other contaminants but can also overwhelm sewage systems, causing untreated sewage to flow directly into waterways.

• Contamination of drinking water by bacteria, viruses, and protozoa can trigger outbreaks of waterborne disease like the diarrheal diseases legionella, campylobacteriosis, and cholera. Warmer water temperatures also promote the growth and reproduction of these diseases.

• For more on climate change's impact on water quality and waterborne disease, download PSR's Fact Sheet: Climate Change Contaminates Your Water (PDF)

• Other areas experience decreased precipitation and seasonal or persistent droughts. Drought conditions not only reduce water supply; they also impair water quality because as water supplies decline, the concentration of contaminants increases.

• Additionally, lack of access to clean water prevents adequate hydration, disrupts good hygiene, and hinders the production of agriculture and livestock.

• Even the vast waters of the ocean are affected by climate change. Rising carbon dioxide emissions are causing ocean temperatures to warm and to become more acidic.

• The combination of higher surface water and increased nutrient loading from agricultural runoff contribute to harmful algae blooms that produce biotoxins. Consumption of fish or shellfish contaminated with toxins can cause neurological damage, respiratory impairment, skin irritations, and diarrhea.

• Increases in ocean acidity threaten coral reefs and the future of shellfish like oysters, clams, and mussels. Where people depend heavily on seafood for food and income, economic status and nutrition are both likely to suffer.

The big picture

Energy emitted by Earth is mainly infrared radiation (heat energy)Longer wavelengths are absorbed in the lower atmosphere, trapping heat close to the earth’s surface

Greenhouse EffectCertain gases absorb more heat from solar radiation (CO2, CH4)Increasing atmospheric CO2 due to use of fossile fuels is causing global warmingHeat is trapped by cloud layer (why are desert nights cold/days warm?)What is the latest front in energy development (post-frac; post-biofuel)?

Climate Change is a Threat to Health• Declining Water Quality• Increasing Waterborne Disease• Changing precipitation patterns• Rising water temperatures• Contributes to ocean acidification• Rising sea levels• Aridity• Increasing frequency and energy of storms such as hurricanes• Invasive species – increased colonization and numbers (e.g. harmful algal blooms• Social – human suffrage

• especially indigenous & sustenance lifestylee... (explore idea)

Anthropogenic global climate changeWhy care?• Climate change likely brings serious adverse impacts on environment and society• This has prompted a swell of global concern, debate, research, disinformation... • The global point group for the issue has come to be the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change; http://www.ipcc.ch/)

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) estimates the average global temperature will increase over the next century by 1.4 - 5.8o C (2.5 - 10.4° F). • Difference between current temperature and the last ice age is only 5o C • Every year of the 1990’s was among the 15 hottest of the past millennium • Night temperatures generally increased more than daytime. • Precipitation rates also increased.

Greenhouse gasesCarbon dioxide – from burning fossil fuels (see figure above)Methane – o Ruminants, coal-mines, oil operationso Absorbs over 30× infrared than CO2

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s) – o Highly persistent refrigerantso Declined in recent yearso Destroys ozone

Nitrous Oxide –o From burning organic material

Sulfur hexafluoride –o Electrical insulation

CO2

o Atmospheric levels increasing steadily (see above Figure)o Analysis of air in polar ice cores revealed 30% lower CO2 values during

glacial periods than during interglacial periods (evaluate)

o Neftel et al. Nature 331, 609 - 611 (1988); doi:10.1038/331609a0

– massive compilation of CO2

record in ice core 50,000–5,000 years bp

Effects of global warming Melting of polar ice caps (VICE video) One-third of population living in areas likely flooded by rising seas Bangladesh and Maldives feeling the pain even now

o View interview with Mohamed Nasheed, former and still only ever freely democratically elected president of the Maldives (link; 7 min)

o International documentary “The Island President” (o International documentary “Thirty Million” (link; 40 min)o Perspective piece (link; Science)

Changes in regional climatic patterns (e.g. more desert for Africa and China) Biomes will migrate – pace will favor some species and kill others Additional likely events:

More evaporation means more intense storms

More heat means greater production by phytoplankton of DMS

More clouds could produce elevated albedo

Etc. (think of some on your own) Predictions vary (e.g. for Texas) but best wisdom largely suggests

intensification of current patterns (wet gets wetter; dry gets dryer)

International Climate Compacts

Kyoto Protocol (1997) 160 nations agreed to roll back carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions to about 5% below 1990 levels by 2012 Progress has occurred, barely (see figure at right and link) KP sets different limits by country, depending on prior output Developing countries exempt Refusal of US to sign on (supposedly because of prior point)

But the following is why India should be exempt…

How might the graph above participate in or otherwise reflect more general reasons why Americans are simultaneously envied and despised throughout the world?

Germany is projected to be carbon neutral by 2050 (e.g. link)

Global climate change and water(sources for this lecture largely from IPCC and public lectures by George Ward)

The world has been increasingly hotter, since the industrial revolution:

NEAR ALL atmospheric scientists believe this is due to (not merely correlated with) increases in the greenhouse gas CO2. The firm scientific consensus is:

• Warming is not controversial

• CO2 increase is not controversial

• Likelihood of the CO2 increase being largely if not entirely due to anthropogenic impacts is not scientifically debatable• There is disinformation promoted counter to the point above

All 23 faculty in our Atmospheric Sciences Department agreed and stipulated:

“It is virtually certain that the climate is warming, and that it has warmed by about 0.7 deg. C over the last 100 years.”

“It is very likely that humans are responsible for most of the recent warming.”

“If we do nothing to reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases, future warming will likely be at least two degrees Celsius over the next century.”

CO2 math...• Burning fossil fuels releases 40B tons (80,000,000,000,000 pounds) annually• That is 8× the summed weight of every man, woman, child and baby on Earth• How much would the volume of CO2 needed to fill this room weigh? 3,000 lbs• How much would the CO2 you generate weight? 42,000 lbsA healthy young adult weighs 75 kg, he/she exhales 7 ml / kg or 500 ml as the tidal volume, the breath volume without extra effort. Exhaled air has 4% CO2, while inhaled air has 0.04%, with an approximate difference of 4%. 500 ml with 4% CO2 equals 20 ml of CO2. 8,409,600 breaths in a year, so 42,000 lbs CO2 3×1014 lbs CO2 exhaled by human collective annually

Hundreds of billions of dollars, maybe over a trillion, in impact.

For context, 80 % of the world population lives in developing countries.It is a social justice issue if the poor are differentially impacted. Note that within any country, the poor are likely to bear the brunt of natural disasters.

Example impacts and management items:

All these items and more apply globally—these examples are givent to provoke thought and illustrate the context-specific management required.

Risk factors and appropriate risk management/crisis response is extremely varied (just touched upon here) and situation specific (e.g. based on region, socioeconomic status, system of government)

Some summary points:Climate change produces a little warming (1-2 °C per c.) but re-regionalizes climate, and radicalizes climate (moderate regional shifts in climate and much greater variance (e.g. more frequent very high energy storms)).

Planning/preparation is called for NOW: e.g. disaster management/readiness, new crops and cropping, infrastructure (sea walls, or better move development away from coast)… (think of some on your own; be creative)

ModelsStipulate:We (the global scientific community, concerned citizens, politicians and indeed, industry) are worried about the future.The future is dependent mainly on how WATER is impacted by climate change. Concern fuels speculation.

Conclude:We need to do research, and generate climate models to understand where we are likely going with these impacts.

MANY models have been developed. My observation is they generally agree in qualitative pattern. Examples…

Here is a list of the major models:

Here are the major findings:

So… what does that have to do with you?