13/07/2016

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY XAU/USD

“Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation pattern from 1.0911 could extend with another recovery.” – based on Action Forex

EUR/USD unchanged on Tuesday

Level Rationale

■ R3 1.1227/64 55 and 100-day SMA; weekly R2

■ R2 1.1128/57 Monthly PP; 20-day SMA; weekly R1

■ R1 1.1079/90 200-day SMA; weekly PP

■ S1 1.0972 Weekly S1

■ S2 1.0924 Bollinger Band

■ S3 1.0895/69 Weekly S2; monthly S1

Pair’s Outlook The Euro against the US Dollar pair was volatile during Tuesday’s

session, as midday it jumped above the resistance cluster made up of

weekly PP at 1.1079 and 200-day SMA at 1.1090. However, the pair

closed the day’s trading session at 1.1060, which is not far from where

it started it at 1.1056. On Wednesday morning the currency exchange

rate remains almost flat, as it has moved only three pips up, which is

from the opening rate of 1.1060 to 1.1064 by 5:00 GMT. If the pair

continues to move upwards, it is bound to test again the previously

mentioned resistance cluster.

Traders’ Sentiment SWFX traders have not changed their sentiment on Wednesday, as 53%

of open positions remain short. In the meantime, pending orders in the

100-pip range are 63% short.

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

Wednesday, July 13, 2016 07:30 GMT

Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago Positions -6% -6% -4%

-26% -34% -46% Orders

Indicator 1D 1W 1MN

MACD (12; 26; 9) Sell Buy Sell

RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Sell Sell Sell

ADX (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

CCI (14) Neutral Buy Neutral

AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy

Alligator (13; 8; 5) Sell Neutral Sell

SAR (0.02; 0.2) Sell Sell Buy

Aggregate ↘ → →

GBP/USD attempts to establish a fresh one-week high

Level Rationale

■ R3 1.3810/19 Weekly R3; monthly PP

■ R2 1.3576/1.3625 Weekly R2; 20-day SMA

■ R1 1.3267 Weekly R1

■ S1 1.3033 Weekly PP

■ S2 1.2724 Weekly S1

■ S3 1.2619 Monthly S1

Pair’s Outlook The Sterling almost fully erased previous week’s losses yesterday, but

the second resistance level, namely the weekly R1, limited the gains.

Today the weekly R1 acts as the immediate resistance, which could

reverse the bullish momentum, causing the British Pound to return to

the weekly PP at 1.3033, as technical indicators in the daily and the

weekly timeframes suggest. On the other hand, we could see another

rally take place ahead of the BoE’s interest rate decision tomorrow,

when the Cable is expected to weaken substantially. Further gains are

unlikely to exceed the 1.3430 area, despite the second nearest

resistance located around the 1.36 mark.

Traders’ Sentiment There are 60% of traders with a positive outlook towards the Cable

today, while the share of sell orders remains unchanged at 74%.

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

Wednesday, July 13, 2016 07:30 GMT

“The GBP remains under pressure and the currency lost 406 pips last week. Trading the GBP pairs is going to be 'relatively' easy. We wait for retracements and we go short with a preference for the GBP/USD and GBP/AUD.” - Forextell (based on PoundSterlingLive)

Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago Positions 20% 28% 30%

-48% -48% -16% Orders

Indicator 1D 1W 1MN

MACD (12; 26; 9) Sell Sell Sell

RSI (14) Neutral Buy Neutral

Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Sell Sell Sell

ADX (14) Neutral Sell Neutral

CCI (14) Neutral Buy Buy

AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy

Alligator (13; 8; 5) Sell Sell Sell

SAR (0.02; 0.2) Sell Sell Buy

Aggregate ↘ ↘ →

USD/JPY makes a U-turn

Level Rationale

■ R3 108.78 100-day SMA

■ R2 105.94/106.65 Bollinger band; 55-day SMA; 38.20%

■ R1 105.07 Weekly R3

■ S1 104.36/103.94 Monthly PP; weekly R2

■ S2 103.10 20-day SMA

■ S3 102.26 Weekly R1

Pair’s Outlook The USD/JPY currency pair continued to appreciate on Tuesday, easily

piercing the second resistance area and even putting the third level to

the test. However, the Yen received a boost earlier today, with the

bearish trend regaining dominance. The pair is now likely to ignore the

nearest support cluster, represented by the monthly PP and the weekly

R2, and negate the most part of yesterday’s gains. Technical indicators

support this scenario, as the are now giving bearish signals in the daily

timeframe. The 20-day SMA around 103.10 is the level to limit the

losses, although a drop lower is not out of the question.

Traders’ Sentiment Today 63% of all open positions are long, compared to 68% of Tuesday.

Meanwhile. The portion of buy orders dropped again, namely from 61

to 44% over the past 24 hours.

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

Wednesday, July 13, 2016 07:30 GMT

“There has been some profit-taking by people who were yen-short, and that led the yen to rise today.” - Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank (based on Reuters)

Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago Positions 26% 36% 50%

-12% 22% -36% Orders

Indicator 1D 1W 1MN

MACD (12; 26; 9) Sell Sell Sell

RSI (14) Neutral Buy Neutral

Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Sell Neutral Neutral

ADX (14) Neutral Sell Sell

CCI (14) Sell Buy Buy

AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy

Alligator (13; 8; 5) Sell Sell Sell

SAR (0.02; 0.2) Buy Sell Sell

Aggregate ↘ → ↘

Gold suffers losses on Tuesday

Level Rationale

■ R3 1,382/84 Monthly and weekly R1s

■ R2 1,358.76 Weekly PP

■ R1 1,342.44 Weekly S1

■ S1 1,319/23 Weekly S2; 20-day SMA

■ S2 1,302.78 Weekly S3

■ S3 1,295.11 Monthly PP

Pair’s Outlook The yellow metal marked its second consecutive session of losses on

Tuesday, as it fell from 1,355.19 at the start of day’s trading to 1,331.66

at the end of Tuesday’s trading. In addition, this fall went right through

the support provided by the weekly S1 at 1,342.44. However, on

Wednesday morning, the bullion has surged a little bit on Wednesday

morning, as the metal started the session at 1,332.70, and it has slowly

moved towards 1,337.14 mark by 5:00 GMT. In addition, daily

aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for the bullion for today.

Traders’ Sentiment Traders have decreased their bearish sentiment on Wednesday, as 59%

of SWFX traders are short on the yellow metal, compared to 65% on

Tuesday. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 71%

long.

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

Wednesday, July 13, 2016 07:30 GMT

“Theresa May was chosen the new Conservative Party leader on Monday. She will become Prime Minister on Wednesday evening. The lack of a prolonged period of transition in the UK’s is negative for the gold market.” – Sunshine Profits (based on investing.com)

Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago Positions -18% -30% -32%

42% 24% 30% Orders

Indicator 1D 1W 1MN

MACD (12; 26; 9) Buy Buy Buy

RSI (14) Neutral Sell Neutral

Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Sell Sell Sell

ADX (14) Buy Neutral Neutral

CCI (14) Neutral Sell Sell

AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy

Alligator (13; 8; 5) Buy Buy Buy

SAR (0.02; 0.2) Buy Buy Buy

Aggregate ↗ → ↗

Signals Buy – the pair shows a clear uptrend Sell – the pair shows a clear downtrend Neutral – no specific trend for the pair Chart SMA (55) – Simple Moving Average of 55 periods SMA (200) – Simple Moving Average of 200 periods Indicators MACD – Moving average convergence divergence – momentum indicator RSI – Relative strength index – compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in attempt to determine ‘overbought’ and ‘oversold’ conditions of the asset Stochastic – technical momentum indicator that compares a currency pair’s closing price to its price range over a given time period ADX – Average directional index – trend strength indicators CCI – oscillator used in technical analysis to help determine when a currency has been overbought or oversold SAR – trending indicator – shows the direction of a trend AROON – measures strength of a trend and likelihood that it will continue Alligator – trending indicator demonstrates presence of a trend and its direction Forecasts

Third Quartile – separates 25% of the highest forecasts

Second Quartile – the median price based on the

projections of the industry

First Quartile – separates 25% of the lowest forecasts

EXPLANATIONS

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

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