technical review of stocks€¦ · technical review of stocks cio wealth management research 15...

Technical Review of Stocks CIO Wealth Management Research 15 December 2014

Peter Lee, Chief Technical [email protected]

+1-212-713-8888, ext.01

Broader list

This report provides technical analysis on stocks that, we believe, are of a wide interest. This list is not a template forthe construction of your personal portfolio. You should discuss investment decisions with your Financial Advisor. For more information about this report, see Description and Methodology in the Appendix. We would like to thank Venkat Badri, an employee of Cognizant Group, for his assistance in preparing this research report. Cognizant staff provides research support services to UBS.

This report has been prepared by UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS). Analyst certification and required disclosuresbegin on page 42. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Table of Contents Ticker Name Page Ticker Name PageAMGN AMGEN INC 4 IBM INTL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP 21AMZN AMAZON.COM INC 4 ITW ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS INC 22APA APACHE 5 JNJ JOHNSON & JOHNSON 22AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC 5 KMB KIMBERLY-CLARK CORP 23BAC BANK OF AMERICA CORP 6 KO COCA-COLA CO 23BEN FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC 6 LB L BRANDS INC 24BMY BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB CO 7 MCD MCDONALD'S CORP 24BP BP PLC 7 MHFI MCGRAW HILL FINANCIAL 25BRK.B BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY - CLASS B 8 MMM 3M CO 25 C CITIGROUP INC 8 MO ALTRIA GROUP INC 26CAT CATERPILLAR INC 9 NEE NEXTERA ENERGY INC 26CELG CELGENE CORP 9 NSRGY NESTLE SA/AG 27COP CONOCOPHILLIPS 10 NVS NOVARTIS AG 27COST COSTCOWHOLESALE CORP 10 ORCL ORACLE CORP 28CPB CAMPBELL SOUP CO 11 OXY OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP 28CSX CSX CORP 11 PEP PEPSICO INC 29CTL CENTURYLINK INC 12 PFE PFIZER INC 29CVS CVS CAREMARK CORP 12 PG PROCTER & GAMBLE CO 30CVX CHEVRON CORP 13 PM PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL 30D DOMINION RESOURCES INC 13 RDSA ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC 31DD DU PONT (EI) DE NOMOURS 14 STJ ST JUDE MEDICAL INC 31DE DEERE AND CO 14 T AT&T INC 32DEO DIAGEO PLC 15 TEVA TEVA PHARMACEUTICALS 32DIS THE WALT DISNEY COMPANY 15 TGT TARGET CORP 33DOW DOW CHEMICAL 16 TOT TOTAL SA 33DUK DUKE ENERGY CORP 16 TRV TRAVELERS 34EOG EOG RESOURCES INC. 17 USB U.S. BANCORP 34F FORD MOTOR CO 17 V VISA INC-CLASS A 35FB FACEBOOK INC 18 VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC 35GILD GILEAD SCIENCES INC 18 VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC 36GIS GENERAL MILLS INC 19 WAG WALGREENS CO 36GSK GLAXOSMITHKLINE PLC 19 WFC WELLS FARGO 37HAL HALLIBURTON 20 WMT WAL-MART STORES INC 37HD HOME DEPOT INC 20 XOM EXXON MOBIL CORP 38HON HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC 21

Technical Review of Stocks

UBS CIO WM Research 15 December 2014 2

Changes since last report Additions Name Ticker

Technical Rating Changes Name Ticker Old New Apache Corp. APA Neutral Bearish BP PLC BP Neutral Bearish International Business Ma-chines

IBM Neutral Bearish

Kimberly-Clark Corp KMB Neutral Bullish Occidental Petroleum OXY Neutral Bearish Target TGT Neutral Bullish Total TOT Neutral Bearish Wal-Mart WMT Neutral Bullish

The last update on these stocks was published on 17 November 2014. Going forward, our previously published ratings for these stocks should not be relied upon.



Amgen Inc. (AMGN)

2010 2011 2012 2013 20144040

6060

8080

100100

120120

140140

160160

180180

Price 10-Week Moving Average 30-Week Moving Average

Source: FactSet, UBS CIO WMR as of 12 December 2014 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third 156-158 148.47-151.47 144.46-145 172-175 191-194 200-202

Technical rating Bullish Sector HealthCare

Last Sale Price $164.53

Rationale: The strong rally of the Biotech sector has driven many of the Biotech names including AMGN to fresh new highs. In the process AMGN has achieved a number of technical projections including the mid-140s (2000-2013 chan-nel breakout target) and the low-to-mid 160s (2013 channel breakout target). Trading above the top of its wedge at 172-175 negates the wedge pattern and confirms a flat/pennant breakout rendering next upside to 191-194 and then to 200-202. An overbought condition coupled with failure at 172-175 can lead to a pullback to the low-to-mid 150s.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

100100

150150

200200

250250

300300

350350

400400



First Second Third First Second Third 284-287.5 259-265 246-249 340-349 360.5-365 379-383

Technical rating Neutral Sector C. Discretionary


Rationale: The ability to retain its longer term support at the 2008 uptrend (now rising at 293), the May/Oct '14 lows (284-285) and the 50% retracement from 2011-2014 rally (287.5) prevented a deeper correction. However, AMZN continues to struggle to clear above its key resistance along the Jan '14 downtrend (335-340) as well as the 38.2-50% retracement (331.53-346.09) from Jan-Mar/Oct '14 decline. On the downside, violation of key support at 284-287.5forces a technical downgrade as next support is 259-265 or the 61.8% retracement and then May 2013 low at 245.75.



Apache Corp (APA)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

6060

7070

8080

9090

100100

110110

120120

130130



First Second Third First Second Third 56.5 51.03 41.05 61-63 69-71.5 75-78

Technical rating Bearish Sector Energy


Rationale: We recommend downgrading the technical outlook of APA to Bearish as it appears a structural breakdownhas been confirmed as the result of the Oct '14 violation of the pivotal 1999 uptrend at 75, the recent break of Apr '13 lows (67.91) and the violation of the 61.8% retracement (61.72) from 1999 to 2008 rally. Although APA is trading atdeeply oversold levels a break of 56.5 can trigger the next downturn to 51.03 or the Mar '09 reaction low and below this to the 76.4% retracement (41.05). Initial supply is now visible along the low-60s and then the high-60s to low-70s.

AstraZeneca PLC ADS (AZN)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

4040

4545

5050

5555

6060

6565

7070

7575

8080

8585



First Second Third First Second Third 66.5-67.50 61.79-63.5 53.5-56 76-77 81.19-82.68 86-87



Rationale: AZN has completed a 4-year technical base breakout on a surge above 52.5-53.5 in late-2013. This breakout ignited a major rally that achieved several of our technical targets including 66-67 or the Oct '06 record high and 76-77 or the technical target based on late-2013 breakout above 53.53. The May '14 rally to the low-80s also met longer term resistance associated with the extension of the 1998/2006 trend line (not shown). The recent consolidation towards the mid-to-high 60s may set the stage for the next move to 76-77 and above this supply signals the next rally.



Bank of America Corp (BAC)

2010 2011 2012 2013 201444

66

88

1010

1212

1414

1616

1818

2020



First Second Third First Second Third 16.73 15.43-16.2 14.37-14.84 18.03-18.25 19.10-19.86 21.16-22.6

Technical rating Neutral Sector Financials


Rationale: BAC is close to confirming a near-term technical breakout above its Mar '14 highs of 18.03. A recent posi-tive outside week pattern during 12/5/14 hints of an impending breakout. A breakout here can ignite a rally towards the top of its 2011 uptrend channel near the low-20s or near the 38.2% retracement (22.60) of 2006-2009 decline. Failure to decisively clear above 18.03 can also lead to another consolidation to initial support at 16.73 or the Dec '14 low and below this to key secondary support at 15.43-16.2 or the bottom of the 2011 uptrend and the 30-week ma.

Franklin Resources Inc. (BEN)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

3030

3535

4040

4545

5050

5555

6060



First Second Third First Second Third 52-52.5 48-49 44-45 58.5-59.5 64-65/68-69 79-81

Technical rating Bullish Sector Financials


Rationale: The intermediate-to-longer term trend remains bullish as evident by a major 5-year uptrend channel (49-50 and 64-65) as well as a large 6-year triangle breakout in early 2013 at 45. However, a negative outside month during Jan '14 (58.87) and 12/12/14 negative outside week warn of a correction back to its trading range between 49-50 and 58.5-59. The recent successful test of the Sep 2013 gap up at 48.72-49.31 is constructive. However, a breakout above 58.5-59.5 is still needed to confirm the next rally to 64-65 (near term), 68-69 (medium) and then 79-81 (long-term).



Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (BMY)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2020

2525

3030

3535

4040

4545

5050

5555

6060



First Second Third First Second Third 56.83-57.49 51-52 46.30-47.55 60-61 67-69 74.88/79.25



Rationale: Pharmaceutical Index (DRG) has appreciated 156% and BMY has gained 282.5% from their 2008/2009 bottoms. A 4-plus year uptrend channel breakout above 39 in 2013 has exceeded its technical target of 47-48. In fact, it has also surpassed its 61.8% retracement (52.38) from its 1999-2008 declines and is now challenging its 76.4% re-tracement (60.98). A positive outside month pattern during Oct '14 and a flag/pennant breakout above 59-60 hint of the next rally to 67-69 and possibly to the mid-to-high 70s, over time. Initial support is 56.83-57.49 and then 51-52.

BP PLC ADS (BP)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2525

3030

3535

4040

4545

5050

5555

6060

6565



First Second Third First Second Third 35.25-36.25 33.62 28.79 39.5-40.5 42.5-43.5 46.5-48.5



Rationale: WTI Crude Oil has fallen 46.75% and BP has decline 32% from their respective Jun '14 highs. In the pro-cess, BP has violated its 2010/2011 uptrend (44-45) confirming a symmetrical triangle breakdown. This breakdown forces a technical downgrade to a Bearish trend and suggests downside risks to as low as 28-29, over time. Near term support resides near its Jun '03/Jun '12 lows at 35.77-36.25. Violation can trigger the next decline to the Mar '09/Oct '11 lows at 33.62-33.7. The Jul '10 low at 26.75 is major support. Key initial resistances are 39.5-40.5 and 42.5-43.5.



Berkshire Hathaway Inc. – Class B stock (BRK.B)

2010 2011 2012 2013 20146060

7070

8080

9090

100100

110110

120120

130130

140140

150150



First Second Third First Second Third

140-143.5 132-136 121-124 149-151 153-155 162-164



Citigroup Inc. (C)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2020

2525

3030

3535

4040

4545

5050

5555



First Second Third First Second Third 51-53 47-48 45.06-45.18 54.3-55.28 64-65 73-75

Technical rating Neutral Sector Financials


Rationale: A cup and handle accumulation base is nearing completion. However, a wide trading range still exists be-tween 45.06 (Jun 2013/Apr '14 lows) and 54.3-55.28 (2009/2013/2014 highs). A breakout above the mid-50s con-firms a major breakout and renders upside targets to the mid-60s (near-term), mid-70s (intermediate) and mid-80s (longer-term). Initial support is 51-53 or the Nov/Dec '14 low and the 10- /30- week ma. Pivotal support remains near the Jun '13/Apr '13 lows at 45.06-45.18 and then 43.68-40.1 or the 38.2-50% retracement from 2012-2014 rally.

Rationale: BRK.B remains a leader within the Financial sector. Three breakouts above the mid-80s (mid-2012) as well as above the low-100s last year and the recent Aug '14 breakout above 133 or the 1998 internal trend line render up-side targets to the high 140s, near-term, 154-155, medium-term and then to 162-164, intermediate-term. Although higher prices are possible an overbought condition coupled with failure to clear above the top of its 2011 uptrendchannel at 149-151 and a negative outside week on 12/12/14 signals a pullback to 140-143.5 and possibly 132-136.



Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

5050

6060

7070

8080

9090

100100

110110

120120



First Second Third First Second Third 89-90 79.5-81.5 67.5-72.5 98-100 105-107 109.73-111.46

Technical rating Neutral Sector Industrials


Rationale: A triangle breakout along 87-89 during late-2013 followed by a breakout above the 2013 high (100) hint of a technical recovery. However, failure to follow through with these breakouts and the sharp selling over the pastfew weeks has led a death cross signal. This Industrial name is now testing its crucial 2011 uptrend (89-90) or the 2010/2011 uptrends. The ability to find support here may help to stabilize the recent strong selling. However, violation of support here can trigger a decline to the high-70 to low-80s. Key initial resistance is 98-100 and then near 105-107.

Celgene Corp. (CELG)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2020

4040

6060

8080

100100

120120



First Second Third First Second Third 105-109 96-98 86-88.5 119-121 128-129 135-136



Rationale: Similar to many Biotechnology names, the CELG rally from 2012 to present is very impressive (309.5%). This recent rally has led to another overbought condition that warns of another consolidation possibly of the magni-tude of the two prior setbacks including the Jan-Apr '14 correction (-23.5%) and the Sep-Oct '14 downturn (-13.8%). Despite an overbought condition it appears the relative strength remains strong and the ability of CELG to maintain above its 10- /30- week ma (105/93.5) can led to higher prices, long-term. Key initial resistance resides along 119-121.



ConocoPhillips (COP)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

4040

5050

6060

7070

8080

9090



First Second Third First Second Third 62.36-62.74 58.5-59.5 56.25-58.5 67-69 74.5-75 78-79

Technical rating Neutral Sector Energy


Rationale: A breakout above the low-60s in May ‘13 renders upside targets to the low-80s (near term) and then themid-80s (secondary). Both of these targets have been achieved prompting the Jul '14 to present correction. The ability of COP to find key support near the May 2013 breakout and the Feb '14 low along 62.36-62.74 is necessary to stabi-lize the recent strong selling. Nonetheless, we remain concerned about the potential for a large head/shoulders topthat has developed over the past year. Neckline support is at 62-63 and the left/right shoulders are visible near 74.5-75.

Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST)

2010 2011 2012 2013 20144040

6060

8080

100100

120120

140140

160160



First Second Third First Second Third 135-137 131-132 125-127 141-143 152-153 160-162

Technical rating Bullish Sector Cons. Staples


Rationale: The dominant trend remains the solid 2009 uptrend channel bounded by 121-122 on the downside and 141-143 on the upside. As long as this trend continues, we retain our bullish technical view on this Consumer Retail stock. However, the recent sharp rally may be encountering formidable resistance as a negative outside week developed on 12/12/14 near the top of its multi-year range. A moderately overbought condition also suggests a consolidation to initial support at 135-137 or the 10-week ma. Secondary support is near 131-132 or 61.8% retracement from Oct-Dec' 14 rally.



Campbell Soup Co. (CPB)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

3030

3535

4040

4545

5050



First Second Third First Second Third 41-42 38-39.5 36-37 45.71-46.67 48.08-48.83 52.5-53.5/56



Rationale: An ascending triangle breakout during 2013 above the high-30s renders an upside target to 48-49, which was achieved during May ‘13 (48.83). Another 1-plus year triangle pattern still bodes well for higher prices. A convinc-ing breakout above the May 2013 downtrend at 46-47 confirms a breakout rendering next targets to 48.08-48.83 (near term) or the May/Aug '14 highs, the low-50s (medium term) and then the mid-to-high 60s (long term). Key initial support is 41-42 or the Aug/Oct '14 lows and the 38.2% retracement from the 2011-2013 rally. Major support is 37.

CSX Corp. (CSX)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1515

2020

2525

3030

3535

4040



First Second Third First Second Third 34.29-34.60 32.25-33.25 29.75-31 38-39 41-42 46-47

Technical rating Bullish Sector Industrials


Rationale: Transport stocks including CSX have recently traded to all-time highs on the backdrop of lower oil prices. A positive outside month (Oct '14) breakout above the top of its 1-plus year uptrend channel at 32.5-33 has quickly achieved its technical price target near the high-30s (near term). Although higher prices to the low-to-mid 40s are pos-sible a gap down on 12/1/14 and a subsequent negative outside day on 12/14/14 warns of a consolidation. Initial sup-port is evident near 34.29-34.60 or the 10/23/14 gap up and Nov/Dec '14 lows. Secondary support is near the low-30s.



CenturyLink Inc. (CTL)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1515

2020

2525

3030

3535

4040

4545



First Second Third First Second Third 37.64-38.79 35.69 33.75-34.25 41.69-41.99 43.43 44.67-46.87

Technical rating Neutral Sector Comm. Services


Rationale: The strong and persistent selling from 2013 has abated soon after a breakout of the declining channel (at 31) during Feb '14. A subsequent breakout above 32-33 as well as a golden cross weekly buy signal during Apr '14 hasextended the recovery phase. Although higher prices are possible, the primary trend remains down as there is formida-ble resistance along the 2008/2011 downtrend (not shown) near the 43. The ability to surpass this downtrend confirms a major breakout. Initial support is 37.64-38.74 or Aug/Oct/Nov '14 lows and below this next support is 35.69.

CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

3030

4040

5050

6060

7070

8080

9090



First Second Third First Second Third 87-88 83.45-83.61 79-81 91-92 99-100 105



Rationale: The channel breakout during late 2012/early 2013 suggests upside targets to the low-to-mid 70s. CVS has surpassed this technical target reaching a record high of 92 during Nov' 14. A positive outside month (Oct '14) as well as a subsequent positive outside week (11/7/14) and a recent breakout above top of 2011 channel at 87-88 suggests upside targets to 99-100 and then 105. However, an overbought condition coupled with a negative outside day on 12/12/14 signals a consolidation to initial support at 87-88 or the 10-week ma and below this to 83.45-83.61.



Chevron Corp (CVX)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

7070

8080

9090

100100

110110

120120

130130


First Second Third First Second Third 100.66-102 95.3-95.73 85-87/81-83 107-110 113-115 118-120



Rationale: Energy names have all suffered intermediate term setbacks during the sharp Oct '14 downturn. Violation of the bottom of its pivotal 2011 uptrend channel at 116-117 and a weekly death cross sell signal confirms an intermediate term trend reversal. The recent decline is nearing next key support at 100.66-102 or the Nov '12 lows and 2009 uptrend. Additional support is also visible near the mid-90s and then towards the low-to-mid 80s or the 2003 uptrend and 61.8% retracement from 2008-2014 rally. Initial resistance is 107-110 and 113-115 or 10-week ma and the Jul '14 downtrend.

Dominion Resources Inc. (D)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

3535

4040

4545

5050

5555

6060

6565

7070

7575



First Second Third First Second Third 70-71 65-67 60-61 73.7574.59 77-79 84-85

Technical rating Bullish Sector Utilities


Rationale: The S&P Utility remains the second best performing major S&P sectors this year gaining 20% YTD. This is in sharp contrast to the SPX gains of 8.3% YTD. D has also gained 12.9% YTD outperforming SPX but lagging S&P Utili-ty. The recent rally has slowed near the mid-to-high 70s coinciding with the top of its 2009/2011 uptrend channel. A daily gap down on 11/11/14 suggests a near term trading range between 70-71 and 74-75. The larger trading range remains in the mid-60s or the Aug/Oct 2014 lows and the high-70s or the top of the 2009/2011 broadening top.



E.I. DuPont de Nemours & Co. (DD)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

3030

3535

4040

4545

5050

5555

6060

6565

7070

7575



First Second Third First Second Third 68-69 63-64.5 58-60 73-73.5 75-77.5 84-85

Technical rating Bullish Sector Materials


Rationale: The confirmed May ‘13 breakout of a triangle pattern (above 54.9) coupled with a 3-year ascending trian-gle breakout in Jul ‘13 (above 57-58) still render upside technical targets to 71-73 (near term), 75-77.5 (medium), 84-85 (intermediate) and 93-95 (longer term). The correction into late summer to early fall briefly violated the Nov 2013 uptrend. However, the ability to trade back above its 10- /30- week ma (68/70) and above recent Sep/Oct '14 highs of 72-73 alleviated an overbought condition. A retest of key initial support at 68-69 can solidify the uptrend.

Deere and Co (DE)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

5050

6060

7070

8080

9090

100100



First Second Third First Second Third 78-80 75-76 69-70 90.5-91.5 94-95.5 99-100



Rationale: Two triangle patterns dating back to 2010 and 2012 respectively are converging to a major breakout or breakdown. The ability to find key initial support at 78-80 during the Sep-Oct '14 correction helps to solidify the inter-mediate-to-longer term uptrend. However, there remains formidable resistance along the top of the two trianglesaround 94-95.5. Failure to retain 78-80 confirms a major technical break down and suggests downside risks to themid-70s and possibly to 69-70. Above 90.5-91.5 can lead to a retest of 94-95.5. A breakout here suggests 99-100.



Diageo PLC ADS (DEO)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

6060

7070

8080

9090

100100

110110

120120

130130



First Second Third First Second Third 108-110 98.5-102 92.55-93.12 123-125 129-131 134.08

Technical rating Neutral Sector Cons. Staples


Rationale: Although the longer term trend still remains favorable, we have become increasingly concerned about the deterioration of this global consumer staples name over the past two years as evident by a break of a well-defined 1-plus year triangle during the Sep-Oct '14 market downturn. In addition, three negative outside months during Jan '14, Jul '14 and Sep '14 as well as the rolling of 10- /30- week ma (121/117) warn of a potential top. Violation of 108-110 confirms top. The ability to find support here can lead to a near term trading range between 108-110 and 123-125.

The Walt Disney Co (DIS)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

3030

4040

5050

6060

7070

8080

9090



First Second Third First Second Third 88.5-90.5 84.5-86.5 82.47-82.68 94.5 98-99 104-105

Technical rating Bullish Sector Cons. Disc.


Rationale: This leading Consumer Discretionary has broken out of a major 15-year technical base (not shown) above 43.26 during early 2012. This breakout renders upside to the mid-70s which was achieved late last year. Since then a 3+ year uptrend channel has developed as defined by the top of the channel or key resistance (98-99) and the bottom of channel or key support (82-82.5). A breakout above 94.5 suggests next targets to 98-99 and then 104-105. Howev-er, a negative outside week on 12/12/14 warns of of a consolidation to the mid-to-high 80s or near its 10- /30- wk ma.



Dow Chemical Co. (DOW)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2020

2525

3030

3535

4040

4545

5050

5555



First Second Third First Second Third 40.5-42 36-38 38-40.5 47-48 50-51 55-57

Technical rating Bullish Sector Materials


Rationale: Although we are tempted to lower our intermediate term technical outlook, last year's breakout above the top of an ascending triangle pattern at 36-37 is technically significant as this signals the start of a recovery. A subse-quent breakout above the 2008/2011 highs at 42.23-43.43 earlier in the year reaffirms a sustainable turnaround and renders upside targets to 55-56.75 (Sep 2014/Mar 2005 highs), 61-63 (intermediate term) and then to 73-75 (longer term). Nonetheless, the sharp Sep-Oct '14 setback warns of a consolidation between the low-40s and the low-50s.

Duke Energy Corp. (DUK)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

4545

5050

5555

6060

6565

7070

7575

8080

8585



First Second Third First Second Third 77-78.5 74.5-75.5 72 84-85 91-93 98-100



Rationale: The 5+ year uptrend channel remains intact between 72 and 85.5. The recent technical breakout above the mid-70s (74.5-75.5) coinciding with the May '13 and May '14 highs renders upside target to 84-85 (medium term) and then to 91-93 (longer term). DUK has achieved its medium target on 11/5/14 trading to a high of 83.90 and promptinga recent consolidation to 77-78.5 or the 10-week ma, 38.2-50% retracement from Aug-Nov '14 rally and the Aug '14 uptrend. Additional support remains near the prior breakout at 74.5-75.5 and then near the bottom of channel (72).



EOG Resources (EOG)

2010 2011 2012 2013 20143030

4040

5050

6060

7070

8080

9090

100100

110110

120120



First Second Third First Second Third 81.07-83.66 76.15-78 69.5-72.5 92-94 102-104 108-110



Rationale: Similar to many of its Energy peers the sharp sell-off in Energy over the past few months has also impacted this leadership energy name. A number of near to intermediate term supports were breeched including: (1) 103-105 or the Jul '14 lows and the 30-week ma (103.5); (2) the large gap up on 5/6/14 (99.71-101.84); (3) 94-95 or the 38.2% retracement from 2011 to 2014 rally. The ability to find key support at 80-81 has led to a technical oversold rally that has stalled at 103-105. Violation of low-80s would confirm a head/shoulders top and downside risks to 69.5-72.5.

Ford Motor Co (F)

2010 2011 2012 2013 201466

88

1010

1212

1414

1616

1818

2020



First Second Third First Second Third 14.5-14.75 13.26-13.42 12.10-12.33 15.12-15.69 16.0-16.25 17.87-18.23



Rationale: During Oct '13 rally to 18.01, F failed to clear major resistance or the 2002/2011 highs (18.23-18.97). In the ensuing correction both of the 10-/30- week moving averages (14.88/16.17) and its Aug 2012 uptrend (15.5) were breached. F has broken its crucial 38.2% retracement (14.50) from Jul '12 to Oct '13 rally prompting the recent down-turn to 13.26 or to the 50% retracement (13.42) from 2012 to 2014 rally. The ability to find support here triggered atechnical rally to the 30-week ma (16.14). A trading range is now likely between 13.26 and 16.13 over the near term.



Facebook Inc. (FB)

Jul '12 Oct '12 Jan '13 Apr '13 Jul '13 Oct '13 Jan '14 Apr '14 Jul '14 Oct '14

2020

3030

4040

5050

6060

7070

8080



First Second Third First Second Third 74-74.5 70.32-72.5 66-67 79.57-81.27 85-87 91-92

Technical rating Bullish Sector Technology


Rationale: After rallying sharply over the past year, FB has slowed soon after experiencing a large gap down on10/29/14 (76.88-79.57). A subsequent negative outside week (10/31/14) further reaffirms the start of a consolidation. Key initial support is at 74-74.5 or the recent Dec '14 lows. Pivotal secondary support resides near 70.32-72.5 or the bottom of a large Jul '14 gap up as well as the pivotal Aug 2013 uptrend and the Oct/Nov '14 lows. Violation here can trigger a deeper correction to 66-67 and then to 61-62. Trading above 79.57-81.27 signals the resumption of the rally.

Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2020

4040

6060

8080

100100

120120



First Second Third First Second Third 98.37-101 96-97 91.73-92.63 109-111 115-117 120-125

Technical rating Neutral Sector HealthCare


Rationale: This Biotechnology name has rallied 83.98% from its recent Apr '14 low (63.5) to its Nov '14 record high (116.83). Although higher prices are possible the recent failure to clear above the top of a Broadening Rising Wedge pattern (115-117) and a 5-month diamond pattern warns of a maturing rally. Nonetheless, the recent Nov '14 correc-tion of -15.8% to 98.37 successfully tested key support along the 38.2% retracement (96.46) from Apr to Oct '14 rallyas well as the 30-week ma (97). Trading below 96-98 confirms breakdown and above 110-111 confirms breakout.



General Mills Inc. (GIS)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

3030

3535

4040

4545

5050

5555



First Second Third First Second Third 50-50.5 46-47 43-44 53.45-53.84 55.05-55.64 60-61



Rationale: After undergoing a 4-plus year uptrend channel between the high-30s and the mid-40s, GIS finally broke out above the top of this range during Jan ‘13. This has ignited a sharp rally to new all-time highs at 53.07 by Aug '13 and then to another record high of 55.69 by Jun '14. Since then the stock has entered into a trading range between 46-47 or key support and 53.84-55.64. Trading above 55.64 signals the start of the next sustainable rally to the low-to-mid 60s. On the other hand, trading below 46-47 confirms a head/shoulders top and downside risks to the low-40s.

GlaxoSmithKline PLC ADS (GSK)

2010 2011 2012 2013 20143030

3535

4040

4545

5050

5555



First Second Third First Second Third 41.68-41.91 38.45-38.76 34-36.5 47-49 51.5-53 55.5-56.75

Technical rating Bearish Sector HealthCare


Rationale: GSK continues to diverge against many of its Healthcare peers violating important supports below the bot-tom of its 2013 uptrend channel at 52-53 and recently below the bottom of a major 5-year uptrend channel at 47-49.The Jul/Aug '14 break down reinforced a key intermediate term trend reversal. A decline below its Nov '12 lows near 41.68 confirms a lower low and warns of further downside risks to mid-to high 30s. An oversold condition has devel-oped into this downturn. However, there is formidable resistance in the mid-to-high 40s or near the prior breakdown.



Halliburton (HAL)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2020

3030

4040

5050

6060

7070


Source: FactSet, UBS CIO WMR as of 28 November 2014 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third 35.75-37.5 32.82-33.74 29.83 44.37-47.12 51.78-53.69 58



Rationale: A breakout above the high-50s early in the year 2014 hints of a major breakout. However, the sharp down-turn in WTI Crude and Energy sector appear to have negated this major breakout. A 49.6% decline from Jul '14 highs,gap downs (11/17/14 and 11/28/14), death cross sell signal and the relative underperformance of the stock versus S&P 500 warns of strong selling. HAL is now approaching crucial support near the 2008 uptrend as well as Apr '13 lowsand 76.4% retracement from 2012 to 2014 rally at 35.75-37.5. Key initial supply is 44.37-47.12 (11/28/14 gap down).

Home Depot (HD)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

3030

4040

5050

6060

7070

8080

9090

100100



First Second Third First Second Third 94-95 86-88 81.56-83.25 99-100 103-105 120-123

Technical rating Bullish Sector C. Discretionary


Rationale: An accelerated channel breakout during early 2012 above mid-40s led to a much steeper 2-year uptrend channel. The violation of the bottom of the uptrend channel in the mid-70s during Aug/Sep 2013 warned of a top. However, this leading Home Improvement Retailer soon transitioned into a new trading range channel between 72.21-74.61 and 81.56-83.25. A recent breakout above the top of the channel at 83.1 renders upside targets to 93-94 (near term), 99-100 (medium), 103-105 (intermediate) and 120-123 (long-term). Initial support is 93-95 and then 86-88.



Honeywell International Inc. (HON)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

4040

5050

6060

7070

8080

9090

100100



First Second Third First Second Third 90-92 87-89 82.89 98-100 102-104 113-114



Rationale: A 13-year technical breakout in the low-to-high 60s during the late-2012/early-2013 (not shown) suggests higher prices, over time. However, on a near-to-intermediate term basis the strong rally over the past year has slowednear key medium term resistance at 98-100 or the top of its 2011 channel and Jul '14 record high. A convincing breakout here can help to extend the rally to 102-104 and then to 113-114. However, failure to surpass 98-100 cou-pled with an overbought condition can trigger a consolidation to key initial support along the low-90s to high-80s.

International Business Machines Corp (IBM)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

120120

140140

160160

180180

200200

220220



First Second Third First Second Third 140-145 125 100-105 170-180 195-200 215.90

Technical rating Bearish Sector Technology


Rationale: We recommend downgrading technical outlook to Bearish due to the confirmation of a large Ascending Broadening Top pattern. The violation of the 2010 uptrend near the high-190s solidifies an intermediate term top. In addition, a large downside gap on 4/19/13 between 196.5 and 206.15 as well as the 8/1/14 and 10/10/14 negative outside week patterns hint of strong selling pressure. Recently, a gap down on 10/20/14 also suggests the Bears re-main in control. Next support now resides along 140-145 coinciding with the 50% retracement from 2008-2013 rally.



Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

4040

5050

6060

7070

8080

9090

100100



First Second Third First Second Third 89-90 80 +/- 2 76.25 100 +/- 2 107-108 115-116



Rationale: A breakout above 59-60 during late-2012 reaffirms our bullish outlook. In addition, the surge above a 4-plus year rising uptrend channel during Apr/May ’13 in the low-70s is technically significant as this action can lead to the continuation of the uptrend. More recently, a positive outside month patterns on Aug '14 and Oct '14 should keep the Bulls in control. However, the 12/12/14 negative outside week pattern hints of a consolidation phase is likely before the resumption of uptrend. Initial support is 89-90 or the Jun/Aug/Sep '14 highs. Initial supply lies at 100 +/- 2 levels.

Johnson and Johnson (JNJ)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

6060

7070

8080

9090

100100

110110



First Second Third First Second Third 100 +/- 2 95 +/- 1 86.09 107-108 116-118 122-124

Technical rating Bullish Sector Healthcare


Rationale: In 2013, JNJ has finally broken out of its large multi-year technical base that dates back to the late-1990s. This breakout above the low-70s and then above the high-70s renders an intermediate-term target to 116-118. In ad-dition, constructive relative strength readings against S&P 500 Index favor higher prices, over time. However, the Ju-ly ’14 negative outside month pattern warns of a consolidation. Initial support lies along 100 +/- 2 or near the Jul/Aug '14 lows. Secondary support is also available near 95 +/- 1 or the Jul/Aug/Nov ’13 and Jan ’14 highs.



Kimberly-Clark Corp. (KMB)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

6060

7070

8080

9090

100100

110110

120120



First Second Third First Second Third 109.70 98-100 91.5-93 116-117 125-127 132-133



Rationale: We recommend maintaining a Bullish technical stance on KMB. The long-term trend starting from 2008-09 lows remains in a decisive uptrend. Although a negative outside month pattern on Jul '14 led to a consolidation, a solid rally from Oct '14 lows not only led to the resumption of the primary trend but also led to a (Oct '14) positive outside month pattern. Targets as high as the mid-to-high 120s and the low-130s are possible over time. The relative perfor-mance has also improved reinforcing the bullish trend. Initial support is at 109.70 or the Jul '14 high and then 98-100.

Coca Cola Co (KO)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2525

3030

3535

4040

4545


Source: FactSet, UBS CIO WMR as of 30 October 2014 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third 39.06 36 +/- 1 31.50-32.50 45 50-51 54-55

Technical rating Neutral Sector Cons Staples


Rationale: We retain a neutral rating on KO primarily due to its inability to hold onto its 4+ year uptrend channel. This warns of a maturing bull trend. A positive outside month in Oct ’13 gives the bulls hope for a recovery. Technically, aconvincing move above 44.47 (the Jul 1998 previous all-time highs) and 45 (the Nov '14 high) are needed to confirm a sustainable recovery to the high-40s and possibly to the low-50s, over time. However, the stock’s relative underperfor-mance with respect to SPX and the July/Oct ‘14 negative outside month patterns hint of continued technical weakness.



L Brands Inc. (LB)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2020

3030

4040

5050

6060

7070

8080



First Second Third First Second Third 76-77 68.50 +/- 1.5 60 +/- 2 85-86 89-92 96



Rationale: After a solid performance in 2013, LB's stock price performance had been volatile during early 2014. A 12/6/13 negative outside week pattern led to a 20% correction. Also an Apr ’14 negative outside month pattern tested the conviction of the bulls. Nonetheless, positive outside weeks on 5/9/14 and again on 6/27/14 paved the way for animpressive bounce back. A weekly golden cross buy signal and superior relative performance favor higher prices. To protect gains we recommend raising initial support to as high as 76-77 or the Nov '14 reaction low and the 10-wk ma.

McDonald’s Corp (MCD)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

6060

7070

8080

9090

100100



First Second Third First Second Third 88 +/- 2 83.31 80 +/- 1 92-92.25 97.30 103.78



Rationale: 2009 uptrend (dash line) breakdown in 2012 triggered a sharp decline to the bottom of its 2008 uptrend. The ability to maintain 83.31 during this pullback has led to another technical rally to key near term resistance coincid-ing with the 2013/2014 highs at 103.78. However, repeated failures to breakout followed by a violation of 2008/09uptrend (mid-90s) warn of a decline to the Oct '14 low (89.34) and then to Jan ’13 gap up (86-89). Below this suggests next support at 83.31 or Nov ’12 lows/2003 uptrend. A move below 83.31 would warrant a technical downgrade.



McGraw Hill Financial Inc. (MHFI)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

3030

4040

5050

6060

7070

8080

9090



First Second Third First Second Third 85 +/- 2 75 +/- 2 70 +/- 1 93-94 100-101 106-107



Rationale: The bullish trend remains intact on MHFI as evident by a confirmed breakout of a 4+ year uptrend channel along high-60s late last year. Despite a volatile year and the minor breech of the 1-year uptrend the ability to maintain the low-70s or the top of the five year uptrend channel breakout and a subsequent move to new all-time highs support the continuation of the primary bull trend. In addition, the Oct '14 positive outside month signals the next rally. How-ever, we can expect a consolidation over the near-term based on the recent 12/12/14 negative outside week pattern.

3M Co (MMM)

2010 2011 2012 2013 20146060

8080

100100

120120

140140

160160



First Second Third First Second Third 155/ 45 +/- 3 130 +/- 1 125 +/- 1 163-166 174-175 181-182



Rationale: A classic inverse head and shoulder pattern breakout dating back to 2004 (not shown) offers bullish impli-cations, at least from an intermediate-to-longer term perspective. The upward sloping neckline corresponds to 107.50-108.50. The right and left shoulder corresponds to the high-60s and the low-70s, respectively. A breakout during the first quarter of 2013 and more recently a positive outside month pattern during Oct '14 reaffirms an accumulationphase. Initial support is near the 10-wk ma (155) and then 145 +/- 3 or near the Jun/Jul/Sep '14 highs and 30-wk ma.



Atria Group Inc. (MO)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2020

2525

3030

3535

4040

4545

5050



First Second Third First Second Third 48.5/44 +/- 0.5 40 +/- 0.5 33-35 51-52 55-56 60-62



Rationale: This defensive consumer staples name is showing recent technical strength despite a rare but well defined broadening wedge formation as denoted by a widening trading range between the high-30s and the high 40s. A breakout above the 2012 uptrend (shown above) has triggered a rally towards the top of the wedge. In addition, rela-tive outperformance of the stock in recent months indicates defensive/income money favoring this name. Nonetheless, a 12/12/14 negative outside week coupled with a convincing break of initial support at 48.5 can trigger a pullback.

NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

5050

6060

7070

8080

9090

100100



First Second Third First Second Third 98 +/- 2 90 +/- 0.5 86.12 106-108 113-114 118-119



Rationale: This Utility name continues to progress higher via a well-defined 3-year uptrend channel. The top of theuptrend channel in the low-110s offers key near term resistance. Despite the defensive nature of NEE, we remain en-couraged by the Oct '14 positive outside month pattern. Initial support lies at 98 +/- 2 or near the Jul/Aug/Sep '14 highs and 10- /30- week moving averages. Secondary support lies at 90 +/- 0.5 or near the Mar/Oct ’14 lows. Initial supply is near 106-108 and above this to 113-114. Intermediate-term targets remain 118-119.



Nestle S.A. ADS (NSRGY)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

4040

4545

5050

5555

6060

6565

7070

7575

8080



First Second Third First Second Third 65.79 63.38 61.50 76 78.52-80.65 84-86

Technical rating Neutral Sector Cons. Staples


Rationale: The long-term bullish trend from the 2009 lows still remains intact. In addition, a multi-year breakout above the 2008 highs (not shown) during 2010 reinforces the primary uptrend. However, since the mid-to-late 2011 the rela-tive strength trend against the S&P 500 Index has deteriorated indicating either a maturing trend or a lack of leader-ship/out of favor. Although the stock can continue to trend higher; it will likely appreciate at a slower pace than in thepast and as a market performer this warrants a neutral outlook as initial support resides at 65.79 or the Oct ’14 low.

Novartis AG (NVS)

2010 2011 2012 2013 20144040

5050

6060

7070

8080

9090

100100



First Second Third First Second Third 90-91/84.42 80 +/- 2 75 +/- 1.50 96.97 100-101 106-107



Rationale: A convincing move above the multi-year highs in the mid-60s reinforces the intermediate term uptrend. In addition, the onset of an inverse head and shoulders pattern breakout on the longer-term charts (not shown from2005-2006) as well as a five year symmetrical triangle breakout is positive. A positive outside month on Feb ’14 canhelp to extend the 1-year uptrend channel. However, July '14 negative outside month pattern and 10/3/14 negativeoutside week hints of a consolidation. A move above 96.97 sets new record highs and below 90-91 warns of a decline.



Oracle Corp. (ORCL)

2010 2011 2012 2013 20142020

2525

3030

3535

4040

4545



First Second Third First Second Third 35-36 32 +/- 1 29.52 42-43.19 46.47 50-52



Rationale: A surge above key resistance at 36.50 earlier in the year confirms a multi-year breakout. In addition, posi-tive outside month patterns in Dec ’13, Feb ’14 and Aug '14 signal higher prices. Although the Jun/Sep ’14 negative outside month warns of a consolidation, a move above 43.19 or the Jun '14 high can offset near term weakness allow-ing for a retest of 2000 record high at 46.47. Initial support lies at 35-36 or near the Feb/Oct '14 lows. Initial supply is at 42-43.19 or the Jun/Aug/Sep/Nov '14 highs and 30-week ma. Key resistance lies at 46.47 or the Sep 2000 highs.

Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

7070

8080

9090

100100

110110



First Second Third First Second Third 69.50-69.76 63.68 56.30 79.50-81.20 85-88 93-95



Rationale: We recommend downgrading OXY to a Bearish technical outlook. A negative outside week appeared on6/27/14 coinciding with the recent peak in WTI Crude Oil (107.68). An ensuing decline (-27%) weakened the absolute and relative charts. A breakdown below 2011 uptrend, a weekly death cross, a negative outside week (11/28/14), dete-riorating relative against SPX and Energy peers, and multi-year head/shoulders top warn of strong selling pressure. Ini-tial support is 69.5-69.76 coinciding with the Nov/Dec 2012 lows and below this to 63.68 or the Oct '14 low.



Pepsico Inc. (PEP)

2010 2011 2012 2013 20145555

6060

6565

7070

7575

8080

8585

9090

9595

100100



First Second Third First Second Third 89.82 86 +/- 1 80 +/- 2 100-102 107-108 111-112

Technical rating Bullish Sector Cons Staples


Rationale: This Consumer Staples name has recorded new highs via a recent 4-year channel breakout. This important breakout renders upside targets into the low-100s, medium term. While the relative strength against SPX needs further work on an intermediate term basis; it has shown marked improvement over the near-to-intermediate term. In addi-tion, a breakout of the 1-year trading range between high-70s and high-80s, a golden cross buy signal, favorable mov-ing averages and the Jul/Oct '14 positive outside month patterns are positive. Initial support is 89.82 (Oct '14 low).

Pfizer Inc. (PFE)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1515

2020

2525

3030

3535



First Second Third First Second Third 29.50-30 27.12-28 24 +/- 0.50 33.12 35.75 37-38

Technical rating Neutral Sector Healthcare


Rationale: A 10-year downtrend breakout above 19 +/- 1 during 2011 (not shown) has ignited a major trend reversal favouring a sustainable recovery. From the 2009 bottom (11.62) this pharmaceutical name has retraced over 50%(30.83) of its 1999-2009 declines. However, repeated failures to maintain above the 50% level (30.83) coupled with flat moving average trends, a 2012 uptrend breakdown and 12/12/14 negative outside week pattern warrants a tech-nical neutral trading range trend. Initial support lies near 29.5-30 or near the 10-/ 30- week moving averages.



Procter & Gamble Co (PG)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

4040

5050

6060

7070

8080

9090


Source: FactSet, UBS WMR as of 12 December 2014 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third 84-86 81.57 77.29 94.50 99-100 106.50



Rationale: The longer-term outlook for PG continues to be Bullish. The 2009 uptrend channel breakout last year in thelow-70s has met our technical projection of mid-80s. As PG traded towards the mid-80s in Nov ’13, two negative out-side weeks developed (11/29/13 and 12/13/13) and a head/shoulders top warned us of technical weakness. However,in recent months the relative strength versus S&P 500 has begun to stabilize. The Oct '14 breakout above 85.82 andthe Oct '14 positive outside month signals the start of the next major rally. Initial support is at 84-86 or near 30-wk ma.

Philip Morris International (PM)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2020

3030

4040

5050

6060

7070

8080

9090

100100



First Second Third First Second Third 81 +/- 1 73-75 67-68 90-92 96.6-96.73 100



Rationale: This Consumer Staples name retains its longer term bullish uptrend dating back to 2008/09. However, it needs to clear above its Apr/May 2013 highs of 96.6-96.73 to signal a sustainable, intermediate term recovery. A sym-metrical triangle pattern remains intact and the convergence of two key moving averages suggests an inflection point. Although the Jun ’14 negative outside month pattern will likely test the resiliency of the bulls, we note the onsets ofthe Oct '14 positive outside month as well as 12/05/14 positive outside week may neutralize future selling.



Royal Dutch Shell PLC ADS Cl A (RDSA)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

5050

5555

6060

6565

7070

7575

8080

8585



First Second Third First Second Third 61.5 +/- 1 57.97 52.23 66.29-70.88 75 +/- 1 79-80



Rationale: RDSA has also declined in sympathy with its energy peers falling 25% from Jul-Nov '14. This has weakened both the absolute and relative (versus SPX) charts. Earlier, this Energy name showed technical signs of leadership by confirming its large 2011 symmetrical triangle above the low 70s. However, the stock failed to maintain its 2011 highs slipping back to crucial support at the low-to-mid 60s. Despite an oversold condition, a death cross sell signal (10 week ma crossing below the 30 week ma) warn of a choppy and volatile environment into the end of the year.

St. Jude Medical Inc. (STJ)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

3030

3535

4040

4545

5050

5555

6060

6565

7070



First Second Third First Second Third 63.45 60 55 +/- 1 71.90 74-76 78-80



Rationale: We remain favorable on STJ due to last year's breakout above the mid-50s which has negated a five year head and shoulder top pattern prompting the recent rally to new highs. In addition, the Sep ’13 positive outside month formation and subsequent 10/04/13, 10/18/13, 12/06/13 and 5/2/14 positive outside weeks bode well for higher pric-es. However, the 7/11/14 negative outside week had led to a healthy correction (-23.8%) from the Jul '14 highs. That said a successful test of the mid-50s in Oct '14 coupled with a positive outside month helps to reinforce the bull trend.



AT&T Inc. (T)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2424

2626

2828

3030

3232

3434

3636

3838

4040


Source: FactSet, UBS CIO WMR as of 12 December 2014 Support Levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third 31.74 30 27-28 33.33-34.09 37 +/- 0.5 39



Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. ADS (TEVA)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

3535

4040

4545

5050

5555

6060

6565



First Second Third First Second Third 52-54 47.36-48.35 44.50-45.10 61-62 64.95 68-69



Rationale: We maintain our technical bullish rating based on the recent breakout of a large symmetrical triangle da-ting back to 2011. In addition, the Mar/May ’13 positive outside months as well as a successful breakout earlier in2014 reaffirms a recovery. Based on this successful breakout, technical targets to the mid-60s are possible, over time. The Oct '14 positive outside month pattern also keeps the Bulls in control. Initial support now lies at 52-54 or near the 30- week moving average. Secondary support lies at 47.36-48.35 coinciding with the Mar/Apr/Oct ’14 lows.

Rationale: We maintain a technical neutral stance on AT&T due to a broad trading range over the past few years. However, the potential rolling over the key (10- /30- week) moving averages as well as a negative outside month pat-tern during Oct '14 and continued relative underperformance of the stock versus S&P 500 warns of further selling pres-sure. A convincing breakdown below initial support at 31.74 or the Feb '14 low confirms a lower low formation and forces a technical downgrade. Initial supply resides along 33.33-34.09 coinciding with the Dec '14 gap down.



Target Corp (TGT)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

4545

5050

5555

6060

6565

7070

7575



First Second Third First Second Third 67.76-70 62 +/- 2 56 +/- 2 77-78 83 87-88



Rationale: We recommend upgrading TGT to a Bullish technical view. After witnessing a 25.6% correction from its Jun '13 highs, an impressive rally from oversold levels led to a move above 73.50 or the Jun '13 highs. A breakout above 73.50 suggests longer-term technical targets well into the low-to-mid 80s. Favorable 10/30-wk moving averag-es, improving relative performance of the stock versus S&P 500 Index and a breakout of the 4+ year uptrend channel are bullish developments. Initial support lies along 67.76-70 or the Nov '14 gap up. 77-78 is key initial supply.

Total S.A. ADS (TOT)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

4040

4545

5050

5555

6060

6565

7070

7575



First Second Third First Second Third 45.93-46.79 41.75-41.85 40 55-56 60 +/- 2 67.70-70



Rationale: We recommend downgrading this Energy name to Bearish technical outlook as the result of the recent sharp pullback from the mid-70s to the low-50s. A weekly death cross sell signal and the onset of a Sep '14 negative outside month confirms a weak technical picture. In addition, continued relative underperformance of the stock versus S&P 500 warns of further selling pressure into the end of the year. Key initial support is 45.93-46.79 or the Apr/Jun '13 lows. Secondary support lies at 41.75-41.85 or the Jun/July 2012 lows. 40 or the Sep 2011 low is long-term support.



Travelers (TRV)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

5050

6060

7070

8080

9090

100100

110110


Source: FactSet, UBS CIO WMR as of 30 October 2014 Support levels Resistance levels

First Second Third First Second Third 99-100 96-96.50 90.83 106-107 110-111 114-115



Rationale: A breakout of a multi-year basing pattern above the mid-60s in early 2012 drives our long-term bullish out-look. We expect this insurance company can rally into the low-110s range over the medium term. The stock's relative outperformance versus SPX, rising moving averages and the Oct '14 positive outside month formation are positive. However, a near-term overbought condition coupled with a negative outside week on 12/12/14 hints of a consolida-tion to initial support at 99-100 or near the Nov '14 lows and the 10-week moving average.

US Bancorp (USB)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2020

2525

3030

3535

4040

4545



First Second Third First Second Third 38 +/- 2 34.5 31-32 50-51 55-56 59-60



Rationale: This Financial stock has recovered all of its losses incurred during the subprime crisis. A move above its pre-vious all-time highs at 42.23 keeps bulls optimistic on this stock. However, USB has traded in sympathy with many ofits Financial peers from the mid-2014 highs. While we note the near-term relative underperformance of this stock to S&P 500 Index, we also point to the bullish primary uptrend over the past few years. A breakout above 44 or the Jun/Nov ’14 highs can extend the rally to the low-to-mid 50s. In addition, a12/5/14 positive outside is favorable.



Visa Inc Cl A (V)

2010 2011 2012 2013 20145050

100100

150150

200200

250250



First Second Third First Second Third 251.89-252.82 243-244 218.40-228.02 278-280 290-292 300-303



Rationale: A solid 530% rally from 2008 lows basically sums up the bullish outlook on this stock. The stock witnessed an explosive rally from an absolute price and relative basis over the past 4+ years. However, the stock began to consol-idate from the mid-230s or near the Jan ’14 highs. A negative outside month in Mar ’14 and a death cross sell signal in May ‘14 signal a consolidation. However, this correction has ended via recent positive outside month breakout above its Jan '14 record highs at 235.50 during Oct '14. Initial support lies at 251.89-252.89 or near the Nov '14 gap up.

Vodafone Group PLC ADS (VOD)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2020

2525

3030

3535

4040



First Second Third First Second Third

33.07 28.63 27.49 37 39 +/- 0.5 42.14



Rationale: In Aug ’13, this Communication Services name has completed a breakout above an extensive trading range as defined by 31 +/- 1 on the upside and 25 +/- 1 on the downside. An upside gap on 8/29/13 led to a positive outside week formation that extended the gains. After achieving a high of 42.14 in Feb ’14, which is marginally above its 2007 highs (near 41.58), an overbought condition developed. A violation of 2013 uptrend and the rolling of the 10-/30-week ma as well as deteriorating relative strength (versus S&P 500) suggest a neutral to defensive technical outlook.



Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2525

3030

3535

4040

4545

5050

5555



First Second Third First Second Third 45 40.50-41.50 35-37 47.56-48.56 51.73 53.66-54.31



Rationale: A multi-year breakout above 2007 highs or 43.01 in late-2012/early-2013 is still constructive. However the negative outside week patterns during 1/10/2014, 4/11/14, 4/25/14, 6/6/14, 8/1/14, 10/10/14, 12/5/14 and relativeunderperformance of the stock warn u s of increasing weakness. Although a positive outside week pattern on 7/4/14and 7/11/14 and a July/Oct ’14 positive outside month patterns are favorable, a gap down on 12/9/14 further weak-ened the charts. Initial support lies at 45 or the Sep '13 low. Initial supply lies at 47.56-48.56 or the Dec '14 gap down.

Walgreen Co. (WAG)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

3030

4040

5050

6060

7070



First Second Third First Second Third 65.19 57.75 54.86-55.27 76.39 80-81 83.50-84



Rationale: A 14% gap down on 08/06/14 not only hurt the near-term bullish trend but also led to a weekly death cross sell signal. The question is whether this recent bearish action signals a top? Despite the near-term weakness, we remain optimistic on WAG as long as the stock retains its multi-year breakout in the low-50s. In addition, the 2/7/14 and 9/5/14 positive outside week patterns provide downside protection. A breakout above the Jun '14 highs at 76.39 signals the resumption of the primary bull trend. 65.19 coinciding with the Sep '14 high is now initial support.



Wells Fargo & Co (WFC)

2010 2011 2012 2013 20142020

2525

3030

3535

4040

4545

5050

5555



First Second Third First Second Third 53 +/- 0.5 44.17-46.44 39.40-40.07 58-59 63-64 67-68



Rationale: A breakout of a 4+ year large ascending triangle pattern broadly drives our bullish rating. The sustainability of the stock above its previous all-time highs of 44.68 established during Sep 2008 has attracted new buyers. Longerterm projections well into the low-to-high 60s are possible based on the 4-year symmetrical triangle breakout. In the near-term, a sharp recovery during Oct '14 re-established its primary uptrend channel. In addition, 12/5/14 positiveoutside week pattern keeps investors optimistic. Initial support is at 53 +/- 0.5 or near the 10- /30- week ma.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT)

2010 2011 2012 2013 20144545

5050

5555

6060

6565

7070

7575

8080

8585

9090



First Second Third First Second Third 75.59 70.25-71.50 67-68 87-88.09 91-92 94-95



Rationale: We recommend upgrading WMT to a Bullish technical outlook as higher prices are now likely. A 13-year breakout in 2012 along the mid-to-high 60s hint of a major rally. Although 12/6/13, 5/16/14 and 6/13/14 negative outside week patterns have led to a trading range environment between low-70s and low-80s, a positive outside week formation on 11/7/14 led a successful breakout above low-80s and now signals the start of the next rally to the low-to-mid 90s. Initial support is 75.59 or the Nov '14 low. Initial supply lies at 88.09 or near the Nov '14 highs.



Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

6060

7070

8080

9090

100100



First Second Third First Second Third 84.70-86.91 75 +/- 2 67.03-69.21 97.02-100.43 104.61 108-109



Rationale: On an intermediate term basis, XOM has struggled to convincingly confirm a major breakout above 2007/08 highs near high-90s failing to follow through to establish new highs. In addition, a breakdown below the bot-tom of its 4-plus year triangle, a death cross signal (10-wk ma crossed below its 30-wk ma), continued relative under-performance of the stock versus S&P 500, 6/27/14 and 10/10/14 negative outside weeks and Jul '14 negative outsidemonth hint of further weakness. A breakdown below key support in the mid-80s would force a technical downgrade...



Appendix

Description and Methodology This report provides technical analysis on a dynamic list of stocks that, we believe, are of a wide interest. Please note that technical views are highly variable and will change with market conditions. Accordingly, these rat-ings are only valid as of the publication date. Because CIO WMR equity sector analysts and WMR technical analysts employ different analytical methodologies, technical recommendations are, at times, contradictory to fundamental recommendations for the same security. For the latest company ratings by WMR sector analysts, please refer to the most recent equity sector research reports, located in the Equity Section on the Online Services Research website. For more background on the content of this report, please see Technical Analysis Research Primer, 18 February 2010.

Appendix

Term / Abbreviation Description / Definition

% +or- Moving Avg (DMA)

The percentage above or below the moving average (see Moving Average) is used to help measure an overbought or oversold condition and is a component of risk management. It is calculated by taking the difference between the group price and its 30-week moving aver-age (see below), and then dividing by the 30-week moving average times 100.

30-Week Moving Average Also known as the 30-week line or 150-day line), this is one of the most popular and re-spected moving average indicators (see Moving Average) in technical circles. It is calculated by totaling the latest 30 weekly (usually Friday closing) prices and dividing by 30 to arrive at the average. Each week, the most recent week’s figure is added to the total, and the price level from 30 weeks ago is subtracted – hence the term “moving.” Please note that a breakout above or breakdown below this line does not, in and of itself, constitute a buy or sell signal.

Adjusted Relative Strength (ARS) Number gives a 50% weighting to the 1-month relative strength, 30% to the 3-month, and 20% to the 6-month numbers to arrive at a single weighted number.

Base A chart pattern marking a period of accumulation following a downtrend. The larger the base, the greater the upside potential following its completion. A base can take many forms.

Beta A measure of volatility of a security as it relates to the market as a whole. Beta is often calculated using regression analysis. A beta is basically the tendency of a security’s returns to respond to swings in the market. A beta of 1 indicates that the security’s price will move with the market. A beta of less than 1 means the security will be less volatile than the market. A beta of greater than 1 implies that the security’s price will be more volatile than the market.

Blow off stage to a major rally This is often the last stage of a speculative bubble to a major rally. The blow off phase tends to be steep, but short-lived that often affords little opportunity for investors/traders to exit their positions. As price of a security or an asset advanced to an unsustainable level via a parabolic uptrend this give rise to the bursting of the speculative bubble resulting a quick and dramatic decline as investors/traders try to exit the market/security at the same time.

Breakdown A technical term indicating a downside resolution of a chart pattern. Its significance is determined by the same factors governing a breakout.



Appendix


Breakout A technical term indicating an upside resolution of a chart pattern. Breakouts can take many forms, and their degree of importance is determined by the significance of the chart pattern which preceded it.

Broadening Top Formation The Broadening top is a rare technical formation that resembles an inverted triangle pat-tern. It is formed by price swings that are increasingly widening and expanding volume. The most common of these broadening top patterns are the three ascending peaks and two descending troughs. The combination of wide price swings and increasing volume often convey an increasingly volatile and emotional market that's basically out of control. This pattern is often associated with market tops rather than market bottoms. The confir-mation of the Broadening top occurs when the price violates the second of these two troughs.

Channel

A chart pattern comprised of two parallel trend lines, which form a trading band. Channels take the form of uptrend, downtrend and horizontal.

Death Cross The opposite of a golden cross, this is a crossover on the chart resulting from a security’s shorter-term moving average falling below its longer-term moving average. Technicians often see this as a bearish technical sign indicating the market has turned negative on the security.

Downtrend Line

A trend line connecting successively lower peaks for a stock (or market). Its technical signif-icance is determined by the same factors governing an uptrend line.

Fan reversal pattern The fan formation is a technical pattern that is based on the use of multiple trend lines to denote a major trend reversal. The fan pattern gets its name as it basically resembles a “fan”. It should have a minimum of three trend lines (uptrends or downtrends). The break out/break down of the third downtrend/uptrend often completes the fan pattern and sig-nals the start of a major trend reversal. The starting point of these trend lines should come from a significant peak or a significant trough.

Fibonacci Retracement Level A technical analysis term used to describe potential areas of support (price stops declining) or resistance (price stops rising) on the charts. After a strong rally or decline there is a tendency for a security to retrace a certain portion of its prior move (up or down). Fibonacci retracements use horizontal lines to indicate areas of support or resistance at the key Fibo-nacci levels before continuing in the original direction. These levels are computed by taking the two extreme points and then dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%.

FSR Forecast Stock Return is defined as expected percentage price appreciation plus gross dividend yield over the next 12 months.

Gap

An open space in a chart created when a stock (or market) opens either higher than its highest level attained during the prior session (referred to as a gap up or an upside chart gap) or lower than its lowest level reached during the prior day (called a gap down or a downside chart gap). Some gaps are caused by events and should be ignored: ex-dividend gaps, new share issues, and expiration of futures contracts.

Golden Cross A crossover on the chart that involves a security’s shorter-term moving average (such as the 50-day moving average) crossing above its longer-term moving average (such as the 150-day or 200-day moving average). Technicians often interpret this crossing of two mov-ing averages as a bullish technical sign that suggests the market has turned in favor of the security.

Head-and-Shoulders Pattern This technical formation is one of the best known of the reversal patterns. There are two types of head-and-shoulders patterns that often appear on the charts – H/S top and H/S bottom. Both of these patterns often denote the process of a reversal either from a bullish or bearish trend. Head-and-shoulders formation often is comprised of a left shoulder, a head, and a right shoulder, and a line drawn across its shoulders defines its neckline. The breaking of the neckline to the upside confirms a head-and-shoulders bottom breakout, which signals the start of a bullish reversal favoring higher prices. The violation of neckline to the downside validates a head-and-shoulders top, reaffirming a bearish reversal of lower prices.

Internal Trend Line A single trend line connecting at least several high and low points for a stock (or market) over time.



Appendix


Linear Regression Band A common statistical technique often used by investors/traders to better forecast values by utilizing the least squares fit method to plot a trend line. A linear regression band consists of upper and lower bands. These bands are calculated by computing the number of stand-ard deviations above or below of the regression line.

Moving Average (m.a.) This is a technical indicator frequently used in technical analysis to show the average value of a security’s price over a set period of time. This tool is designed to smooth out a stock’s (or market’s) shorter-term fluctuations to provide a better picture of an underlying trend. Moving averages generally are used to measure momentum and define areas of possible support and resistance. Moving averages can be helpful as they emphasize the direction of the dominant or prevailing trend and also tend to smooth out price and volume fluctua-tions, or “noise,” giving the trader or investor a clearer picture of the security in question. Many moving averages exist.

MRA Market Return Assumption is defined as the one-year local market interest rate plus 5% (a proxy for the equity risk premium and not a forecast).

Neckline Support/Resistance This is a trend line that is drawn across the bottoms or tops of the left shoulder, the head and the right shoulder of a potential head-and-shoulders bottom or top pattern. When prices break through this neckline support level and continue falling after forming the right shoulder, it confirms a head-and-shoulders top formation. Conversely, neckline resistance is a trend line drawn across the tops of the left shoulder, the head and the right shoulder. When prices break above this neckline resistance level and keep on rising, it typically com-pletes the head-and-shoulders bottom pattern.

Overbought A technical condition in which the price of a security has risen to such a degree that the price becomes overvalued or has reached the upper band of its trading range resulting in a potential pullback in price.

Oversold Opposite of Overbought. A technical condition that occurs when the price of a security has fallen to such a degree that the price becomes undervalued or has reached the lower band of its trading range prompting a potential rally.

Positive/Negative “Outside” Day

When one day’s range (high and low) exceeds the prior day’s range, and the stock (or market) in question closes near its daily peak, this is referred to as a positive “outside” day. A negative “outside” day would be recorded if the stock (or index) finished near its daily low after having a wider range than the prior session. The same rule can be applied on a weekly and monthly basis as well.

Relative Strength

Relative strength is a performance comparison between a sector, group, or stock and the S&P 500 Index over a specified time frame. Our time frame is often a one-, three-, and six-month basis but does vary according to investment orientation.

RRD Rating/Return Divergence is automatically appended to the rating when stock price move-ment has caused the prevailing rating to differ from that which would be assigned accord-ing to the rating system and will be removed when there is no longer a divergence, either through market movement or analyst intervention.

Support An area where increased buying interest is likely to develop during a decline. These points, which can take several forms (minor, major, etc.), often provide downside protection for an issue in a primary uptrend, but only temporary relief to an issue in a primary uptrend, dur-ing which time many support levels are often broken.

Top A chart pattern marking a period of distribution following an uptrend. The larger the top, the greater the downside potential following its completion. It, too, can take many forms.

Triangle Patterns There are three different types of Triangle patterns – Symmetrical, Descending and Ascend-ing. Symmetrical Triangle is considered to be a continuation pattern that often signals a period of consolidation in a trend followed by a resumption of the prior trend. It is formed by the convergence of a descending trend and an ascending trend. An Ascending Triangle is a bullish pattern, which is denoted by two trend lines – a flat trend line and an ascend-ing uptrend line. A Descending Triangle is a bearish pattern. It is the opposite of the As-cending Triangle in that there is a flat trend line and a downward sloping downtrend line.



Appendix

Statement of RiskStock market returns are difficult to forecast because of fluctuations in the economy, investor psychology, geopoliticalconditions and other important variables.

Analyst certificationEach research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that withrespect to each security or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect hisor her personal views about those securities or issuers; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directlyor indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in the research report.

Required Disclosures

For a complete set of required disclosures relating to the companies that are the subject of this report, please mail arequest to UBS CIO Wealth Management Research Business Management, 1285 Avenue of the Americas, 20th Floor,Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10019.

Disclosures (15 December 2014)3M Co. 3, 6, 8, 10, 11, 13, 15, Altria Group Inc. 8, 10, 11, Amazon.com Inc. 8, 10, 11, Amgen Inc. 3, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13,15, 16; Apache 3, 6, 8, 10, 11, 13, Astrazeneca 8, 10, 11, AT&T Inc. 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 15, 16; Bank of America 3,4, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 15, 16; Berkshire Hathaway Inc. 6, 11, 13, 14, BP 1, 3, 5, 7, 11, 15, 16; Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. 3,4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 13, 15, Campbell Soup Co. 3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 13, 15, Caterpillar Inc. 4, 8, 10, 11, 13, 14, Celgene Corp.4, 6, 7, 11, 13, CenturyLink Inc. 3, 4, 11, 13, 15, 16; Chevron 4, 8, 10, 11, 13, Citigroup 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 15, 16;Coca-Cola Co. 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 13, 15, ConocoPhillips 3, 6, 11, 13, Costco Wholesale Corp. 8, 10, 11, CSX Corp. 3,8, 10, 11, 15, 16; CVS Health 8, 10, 11, Deere and Co. 8, 10, 11, 14, Diageo 7, 11, 15, 16; Dominion Resources 3, 4, 6,7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 15, 16; Dow Chemical Co. 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 13, 14, Duke Energy 3, 7, 8, 10, 11, 15, 16; E.I. DuPont deNemours & Co. 3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 13, 14, EOG Resources 3, 8, 10, 11, 15, 16; Exxon Mobil 4, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, Facebook11, Ford Motor Co 3, 6, 11, 13, Franklin Resources 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 13, General Mills Inc. 4, 8, 10, 11, 13, Gilead SciencesInc. 11, GlaxoSmithKline Plc 7, 11, 15, 16; Halliburton 8, 10, 11, 15, Home Depot Inc. 8, 10, 11, Honeywell InternationalInc. 4, 8, 10, 11, 13, Illinois Tool Works Inc. 5, 11, Intl Business Machines 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, Johnson and Johnson3, 4, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 15, Kimberly-Clark Corp. 8, 10, 11, L Brands 3, 11, 15, 16; McDonald's Corp. 8, 10, 11, McGraw-Hill Cos. 8, 10, 11, 16; Nestle SA/AG 7, 8, 10, 14, 15, 16; NextEra Energy Inc. 3, 7, 11, 15, 16; Novartis 3, 5, 7, 9, 11,14, 15, 16; Occidental Petroleum 3, 5, 7, 11, Oracle Corp. 4, 8, 10, 11, 13, PepsiCo Inc. 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 15, 16;Pfizer Inc. 4, 8, 10, 11, 13, Philip Morris Intl Inc. 3, 7, 8, 10, 11, 15, 16; Procter & Gamble Co. 3, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 15,16; Royal Dutch Shell Plc 3, 7, 11, St. Jude Medical Inc. 11, Target Corp. 11, Teva Pharmaceuticals Ltd. 5, 11, Total SA7, 11, 15, 16; Travelers 4, 5, 8, 10, 11, 13, U.S. Bancorp 3, 4, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 15, 16; Verizon Communications Inc. 3,8, 10, 11, 15, 16; Vodafone Group 1, 7, 11, 15, Walgreen Co. 8, 10, 11, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 13, WaltDisney Co. 8, 10, 11, 14, Wells Fargo 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 16;

1. UBS Limited acts as broker to this company.2. UBS AG, Australia Branch is acting as financial adviser to Coca-Cola Amatil Limited on the proposed agreement withThe Coca-Cola Company to accelerate growth in Indonesia, and will receive a fee for acting in this capacity.3. This company/entity is, or within the past 12 months has been, a client of UBS Securities LLC, and investment bankingservices are being, or have been, provided.4. This company/entity is, or within the past 12 months has been, a client of UBS Securities LLC, and non-investmentbanking securities-related services are being, or have been, provided.5. UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of this company's common equitysecurities as of last month's end (or the prior month's end if this report is dated less than 10 days after the most recentmonth's end).6. This company/entity is, or within the past 12 months has been, a client of UBS Securities LLC, and non-securities servicesare being, or have been, provided.7. UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking servicesfrom this company/entity within the next three months.8. This company/entity is, or within the past 12 months has been, a client of UBS Financial Services Inc, and non-investmentbanking securities-related services are being, or have been, provided.9. UBS AG is acting as agent in regard to Novartis AG's announced share buyback programme.10. Within the past 12 months, UBS Financial Services Inc has received compensation for products and services otherthan investment banking services from this company.11. UBS Securities LLC makes a market in the securities and/or ADRs of this company.



Appendix

12. An employee of UBS AG is an officer, director, or advisory board member of this company.13. Within the past 12 months, UBS Securities LLC has received compensation for products and services other thaninvestment banking services from this company/entity.14. The equity analyst covering this company, a member of his or her team, or one of their household members has along common stock position in this company.15. Within the past 12 months, UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries has received compensation for investment bankingservices from this company/entity.16. UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries has acted as manager/co-manager in the underwriting or placement of securitiesof this company/entity or one of its affiliates within the past 12 months.CIO Wealth Management Research stock recommendation systemAnalysts provide a relative rating, which is based on the stock’s total return potential against the total estimated returnof the appropriate sector benchmark over the next 12 months.

Industry sector relative stock view systemOutperform (OUT) Expected to outperform the sector benchmark over the next 12 months.Marketperform (MKT) Expected to perform in line with the sector benchmark over the next 12 months.Underperform (UND) Expected to underperform the sector benchmark over the next 12 months.Under reviewUpon special events that require further analysis, the stock rating may be flagged as “Under review” by the analyst.SuspendedAn outperform or underperform rating may be suspended when the stock's performance materially diverges from theperformance of its respective benchmark.RestrictedIssuing of research on a company by WMR can be restricted due to legal, regulatory, contractual or best business practiceobligations which are normally caused by UBS Investment Bank’s involvement in an investment banking transaction inregard to the concerned company.

Technical Research Rating DefinitionsRating Corresponding Rating Category Definition and criteriaBullish Buy Well-defined, reliable uptrend, an increase in the rate of change (or

strong momentum) and confirming technical indicators.Neutral Hold Trading range trend, a flat rate of change and confirming technical

indicators.Bearish Sell Negative or weakened trend, momentum and confirming technical

indicators.N/A Not enough historical data to make an evaluation.



Appendix

Disclaimer

In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA. This publication is for our clients’ information only and is not intended as an offer, ora solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any investment or other specific product. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or takeinto account the particular investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific recipient. We recommend that recipients takefinancial and/or tax advice as to the implications of investing in any of the products mentioned herein. We do not provide tax advice. The analysiscontained herein is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results. Other than disclosuresrelating to UBS AG, its subsidiaries and affiliates, all information expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliableand in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy or completeness. All information and opinionsare current only as of the date of this report, and are subject to change without notice. This publication is not intended to be a completestatement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in the report. Opinions may differ or be contrary to those expressedby other business areas or groups of UBS AG, its subsidiaries and affiliates. Chief Investment Office (CIO) Wealth Management (WM)Research is published by UBS Wealth Management and UBS Wealth Management Americas, Business Divisions of UBS AG (UBS) or an affiliatethereof. CIO WM Research reports published outside the US are branded as Chief Investment Office WM. UBS Investment Research is writtenby UBS Investment Bank. Except for economic forecasts, the research process of CIO WMR is independent of UBS Investment Research. Asa consequence research methodologies applied and assumptions made by CIO WMR and UBS Investment Research may differ, for example,in terms of investment horizon, model assumptions, and valuation methods. Therefore investment recommendations independently providedby the two UBS research organizations can be different. The analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report may interact with tradingdesk personnel, sales personnel and other constituencies for the purpose of gathering, synthesizing and interpreting market information. Thecompensation of the analyst(s) who prepared this report is determined exclusively by research management and senior management (notincluding investment banking). Analyst compensation is not based on investment banking revenues, however, compensation may relate to therevenues of UBS as a whole, of which investment banking, sales and trading are a part.UBS AG, its affiliates, subsidiaries and employees may trade as principal and buy and sell securities identified herein. At any time, investmentdecisions (including whether to buy, sell or hold securities) made by UBS AG, its affiliates, subsidiaries and employees may differ from or becontrary to the opinions expressed in UBS research publications. Some investments may not be readily realizable since the market in the securitiesis illiquid and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which you are exposed may be difficult to quantify. UBS relies oninformation barriers to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within UBS, into other areas, units, groups or affiliates ofUBS. Some investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and on realization you may receive back less than you invested or maybe required to pay more. Changes in foreign currency exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the price, value or income of an investment.Past performance of an investment is not a guide to its future performance. Additional information will be made available upon request. Thisreport is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The securities described herein may not beeligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. Distributed to US persons by UBS Financial Services Inc., a subsidiary of UBS AG.UBS Securities LLC is a subsidiary of UBS AG and an affiliate of UBS Financial Services Inc. UBS Financial Services Inc. accepts responsibility forthe content of a report prepared by a non-US affiliate when it distributes reports to US persons. All transactions by a US person in the securitiesmentioned in this report should be effected through a US-registered broker dealer affiliated with UBS, and not through a non-US affiliate. Thecontents of this report have not been and will not be approved by any securities or investment authority in the United States or elsewhere.Version as per May 2014.UBS specifically prohibits the redistribution or reproduction of this material in whole or in part without the prior written permission of UBS andUBS accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.© UBS 2014. The key symboland UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS. All rightsreserved.



technical review of stocks€¦ · technical review of stocks cio wealth management research 15...

Documents