technometrica auto demand index for april 2012

TechnoMetrica Auto Demand IndexApril 2012 (Full Report)

70 Hilltop Road, Ramsey, NJ 0744670 Hilltop Road, Ramsey, NJ 07446Pho:201‐986‐1288 | Fax:201‐986‐0119

www.technometrica.com

About Us

TechnoMetrica, founded in 1992, is a full‐service Market Research consultancy that helps businesses identify, develop and capitalize on growth opportunities. Spotting trends and synthesizing insights that are well‐defined, accurate, and forward‐thinking is our passion. y g g , , g pResearch is the foundation for all our endeavors.

TechnoMetrica is a thinkery. We harness the power of creative thinking in everything we do: to develop study designs that best answer research objectives; to communicatedo: to develop study designs that best answer research objectives; to communicate research findings with impact; to develop effective marketing strategies and new product development. Our creations are the true testimonies that reflect our depth of thinking. Our clients are our ambassadors of our reputation.

In 1996, TechnoMetrica founded TIPP – the TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics. Shortly thereafter, TIPP joined forces with Investor’s Business Daily (1996 to present) –the nation’s fastest‐growing financial publication – to produce their highly respectedthe nation s fastest‐growing financial publication – to produce their highly respected IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index. TIPP also has a similar polling partnership with the Pulitzer Prize‐winning Christian Science Monitor (1998 to present).

TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – April 2012 2

Table Of Contents

I. Methodology 4‐5

II. Auto Demand Index 6‐17A. Auto Demand Index (Overall)B B R iB. By RegionC. By Area TypeD. By AgeE. By Gender/Marital StatusF B P t l St t d R /Eth i itF. By Parental Status and Race/EthnicityG. By Household Income

III. Demand For New Autos 18‐24A Vehicle Purchase/Lease Plans: OverallA. Vehicle Purchase/Lease Plans: OverallB. Vehicle Purchase Plans: Purchase Likelihood Over TimeC. New Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time FrameD. Vehicle Types MomentumE. Preferred Vehicle Types 3SMAE. Preferred Vehicle Types 3SMA

IV. Brand Preferences 25‐32A. Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy Today 3 SMAB. Brand Preferences Over Time 3 SMA (Top Ten Brands)


V. Contact Information 33

I. Methodologygy

MethodologyTechnoMetrica’s Auto Demand Index is a forward looking early (monthly) indicator ofTechnoMetrica s Auto Demand Index is a forward looking early (monthly) indicator of consumers’ intent to purchase or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months. The index has been set to an initial value of 100 based on demand levels between February 2007 and April 2007, the strongest selling season in the past decade.

The Auto Demand Index is based on the responses Americans give to the question: – How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? Would you say

very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely or not at all likely?

We express purchase intent as an index score that varies as a linear function of the percentage of consumers who are either “very” or “somewhat” likely to purchase or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months.

Higher index readings correspond to greater demand or intent to purchase/lease new automobiles.

The index and its movement is projectable to the national market for new automobiles, which consists of over 100 million U.S. households with drivers.

Each month TechnoMetrica uses a monthly Random Digit Dial (RDD) telephone survey to


Each month, TechnoMetrica uses a monthly Random Digit Dial (RDD) telephone survey to collect the survey data, with a sample size of 900+ respondents. The margin of error is +/‐ 3.3 percentage points

II. Auto Demand Index, Purchase OutlookA. Auto Demand Index (Overall)B. By RegionC. By Area TypeD. By AgeE By Gender and Marital StatusE. By Gender and Marital StatusF. By Parental Status and Race/EthnicityG. By Household Incomey

Auto Demand Index (Overall)Whil h A D d I d d f i ll iWhile the Auto Demand Index recovered from its all time low in March of 49 to 67 this month, it is still down significantly from January’s level of 105.

High Low

2007 129 79

2008 92 66

Base = All Respondents

120

Auto Demand Index 3SMA

2009 95 55

2010 97 56

2011 94 493SMA= Three Months Simple Moving Average

60

80

100

120 2012 105 49

0

20

40

60

0

Apr‐10

May‐10

Jun‐10

Jul‐1

0

Aug‐10

Sep‐10

Oct‐10

Nov‐10

Dec‐10

Jan‐11

Feb‐11

Mar‐11

Apr‐11

May‐11

Jun‐11

Jul‐1

1

Aug‐11

Sep‐11

Oct‐11

Nov‐11

Dec‐11

Jan‐12

Feb‐12

Mar‐12

Apr‐12


Auto Demand Index Moving AveragesBase = All Respondents

3SMA= Three Months Simple Moving Average

The 3 Month Simple Moving average shows the purchase intent has broken its momentum.

80

85

90

953SMA 6SMA 12SMA

6SMA = Six Months Simple Moving Average

12SMA = Twelve Months Simple Moving Average

65

70

75

80

50

55

60

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2

Apr‐10

May‐10

Jun‐10

Jul‐1

0

Aug‐10

Sep‐10

Oct‐10

Nov‐10

Dec‐10

Jan‐11

Feb‐11

Mar‐11

Apr‐11

May‐11

Jun‐11

Jul‐1

1

Aug‐11

Sep‐11

Oct‐11

Nov‐11

Dec‐11

Jan‐12

Feb‐12

Mar‐12

Apr‐12


Momentum( h) l ( h)Momentum Measure = Fast Average (3‐month) minus Slow Average (12‐month) Base = All Respondents

After reaching an all time high in February 2012, the momentum is declining.

1.90

2.40

16

20 ADI Auto Sales

0.90

1.40

4

8

12

AutoADI

‐0.60

‐0.10

0.40

‐8

‐4

0 SalesADI

‐1.60

‐1.10

‐20

‐16

‐12

Difference between 3SMA‐ Difference between 3SMA auto


ADI and 12SMA‐ADI sales and 12SMA auto sales

Correlation Between ADI and U.S. Auto Sales

ADI and U.S. Car sales have strong correlation.R²: 0.5472Correlation: 0 7606

Training set Test set

# of rows: 49 10

CCR n/a n/a

Summary

Correlation: 0.7606 CCR: n/a n/a

Average AE: 0.65287 1.7668947

Average MSE: 1.4180596 4.8434803

Tolerance type: Relative Relative

l

15.626667

16.626667

17.626667

ted Actual Forecasted

Tolerance: 10% 30%

# of Good forecasts: 43 (88%) 9 (90%)

# of Bad forecasts: 6 (12%) 1 (10%)

12.626667

13.626667

14.626667

ual and

Forecast

9.6266667

10.626667

11.626667

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59

Act


Rows

Generated with Alyuda Forecaster XL

Adding Gas Prices To ADI Provides Nearly Perfect Sales Correlation3SMA Sales predicted using 3SMA‐ADI & 3SMA Gas PricesR²: 0.7678Correlation: 0.9027

Training set Test set

# of rows: 49 10

CCR n/a n/a

Summary

I I T bl CCR: n/a n/a

Average AE: 0.6794808 1.1211821

Average MSE: 0.8182215 2.0367258

Tolerance type: Relative Relative

l

Input Value, %

3SMA ‐ADI 63.5%

3SMA Gas Prices 36 5%

Input Importance Table

16.626667

17.626667

ed

Actual Forecasted

Tolerance: 10% 30%

# of Good forecasts: 45 (92%) 10 (100%)

# of Bad forecasts: 4 (8%) 0 (0%)

3SMA Gas Prices 36.5%

12.626667

13.626667

14.626667

15.626667

al and

Forecaste

9.6266667

10.626667

11.626667

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59

Actua


Rows

Regression using Alyuda Forecaster XLGas Prices from Bureau of Economic Analysis

By Region 3 SMABase = All Respondents

78 75 80 84100

125

150Northeast

72 7787

68100

125

150Midwest

12 SMA = 6612 SMA = 75

78 75 8491

8366

25

50

75

4450

72 77 68 63

0

25

50

75

150South

0O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

0O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

West

6675 79

102111

10080

75

100

125

150

6578

5260 66 68 6275

100

125

150 12 SMA = 64

0

25

50

O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

52

0

25

50

O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

12 SMA = 78


Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months?

By Area Type 3 SMABase = All Respondents

8589

10591

100

125

150Suburban

72 77 83 88 86 80100

125

150Urban

12 SMA = 77 12 SMA = 77

6978

85 76

25

50

75

10072 7771

80

0

25

50

75

100

0O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

0O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

150Rural

12 SMA = 63

4453 60

81 8677

6375

100

125

12 SMA 63

44

0

25

50

O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12



By Age 3 SMABase = All Respondents

134

110120 129

106150

175

20018‐24

119131

110150175200

25‐4412 SMA = 11412 SMA = 92

110

68

90106

25

50

75

100

125

63 7895

119 11093

255075100125

0

25

O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

20045‐64

025

O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

20065+

12 SMA 34

65 69 70 72 67100125150175200

100125150175200 12 SMA = 3412 SMA = 60

56 65 69 70 72 67 62

0255075

O 11 N 11 D 11 J 12 F 12 M 12 A 12

32 3531

37 41 3725

0255075

O 11 N 11 D 11 J 12 F 12 M 12 A 12



O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12 O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

By Gender and Marital Status 3 SMABase = All Respondents

78 8297

10997

100

125

150Male

100

125

150Female

12 SMA = 8012 SMA = 65

75 78 82 78

25

50

75

100

52 62 6272 77

70 62

25

50

75

100

0O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

0O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

150Married

150Single

12 SMA = 75

6574 82

95106

9176

75

100

125

50

60 6356

70 74 7263

75

100

125

5012 SMA = 69

0

25

50

O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐120

25

50

O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12



By Parental Status and Race/Ethnicity 3 SMABase = All Respondents

91 9588

101116

10994

100

125

150Parents

78 83100

125

150Non‐Parents

12 SMA = 62

88

25

50

75

100

4857 64

78 8372

60

25

50

75

100

12 SMA = 93

0O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

0O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

134 140150Black/Hispanic

150White

5976

94

134 140

111

87

75

100

125

150

58 62 6371 75 69

5975

100

125

15012 SMA = 64

0

25

50

O 11 N 11 D 11 J 12 F 12 M 12 A 120

25

50

O 11 N 11 D 11 J 12 F 12 M 12 A 12

12 SMA = 87



O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12 O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

By Household Income 3 SMABase = All Respondents

125

15030K‐50K

10493

125

150Under 30K

12 SMA = 64

4253 61

76 74 7764

25

50

75

100

56 6351

8293

63

25

50

75

100

150100K+

15050K‐100K

0

25

O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐120

25

O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

12 SMA = 68

88 95107 110

119102 96

75

100

125

150

58 61 7079

73 67 6675

100

125

15012 SMA = 68

0

25

50

O 11 N 11 D 11 J 12 F 12 M 12 A 120

25

50

O 11 N 11 D 11 J 12 F 12 M 12 A 12

12 SMA = 93



O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

III. Demand For New AutosA. Vehicle Purchase/Lease Plans: OverallB. Vehicle Purchase Plans: Purchase Likelihood Over TimeC. New Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time FrameD. Vehicle Types MomentumE Preferred Vehicle Types 3 SMAE. Preferred Vehicle Types 3 SMA

Vehicle Purchase Plansl Base = All RespondentsApril 2012

Likely11%

Not Likely89%

In April, the share of Americans whosaid they were likely to purchase orlease a new vehicle in the next sixmonths is 11%, up from 8% in March.

25% Vehicle Purchase Plans Over Time

10%

15%

20% Likely 3 month SMA

0%

5%

Apr‐10

ay‐10

un‐10

Jul‐1

0

ug‐10

ep‐10

Oct‐10

ov‐10

ec‐10

an‐11

eb‐11

ar‐11

Apr‐11

ay‐11

un‐11

Jul‐1

1

ug‐11

ep‐11

Oct‐11

ov‐11

ec‐11

an‐12

eb‐12

ar‐12

Apr‐12


A M Ju J Au Se O N D Ja Fe M A M Ju J Au Se O N D Ja Fe M A

Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time FramelApril 2012 Base = Potential Customers

70%

80%

90%

100%

Within 1 Month16%

Between 4

Not Sure4%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Between 2

Between 4 & 6 Months

61%

10%

20%

30%

Of these likely to purchase or lease, 16% saywill do so within one month, while 19% saythey will do so within 2 to 3 months, while

Between 2 & 3 Months

19%

0%O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

Within 1 Month Between 2 and 3 Months Between 4 and 6 Months Not sure

y ,most (61%) are planning to do so further out(within 4 to 6 months).

In April the percentage of likely vehicle buyers within one month


Q. Will you make your purchase within the next month, 2 to 3 months, or in 4 to 6 months?

In April, the percentage of likely vehicle buyers within one monthincreased to 16%.

Gas Prices Delay Vehicle Purchase Timeframel Base = All RespondentsApril 2012

Overall

Thosewho said yes

By Age

Yes27%

No73%

41%32%

25%14%

Those who said yes

In April, 27% of respondents said they havedelayed the purchase of a new vehicle due togas prices.

14%

18‐24 25‐44 45‐64 65+

Those who said yes

By Region

Those who said yes

By Household Income

26% 27% 28% 27%35% 33%

26% 23%


Northeast Midwest South West Under $30K $30K‐$50K $50K‐$75K Above $75K

Q. What impact has today's gas prices had on your driving habits? Have you or are you delaying the purchase of a new car that you wanted to buy within the next six months?

Vehicle Type MomentumlApril 2012 Base = Potential Customers

12 Month Average 3 Month Average

Negative Change Positive Change

31%

27%

20%

13%11%

8%7% 6% 7%

14%12%

10%

6% 5% 5%

8%

Mid‐size Small SUV Pickup Full‐size Minivan Sub‐compact or Mini

Large SUV Compact


Q. What type of vehicle are you most likely to buy or lease?

Preferred Vehicle Types Over Time ‐ 3 SMA

19% 20%

30%

40%Compact Base = Potential Customers

30%

40%Subcompact/Mini

12 SMA = 6 12 SMA = 14

9% 8% 8%11%

14%

19% 20%

10%

20%14% 12%

7%

2% 4% 4% 5%10%

20%

0%O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐120%

O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

34%40%Mid‐Sized

40%Full‐Sized

33%

32% 31% 29%25% 27%

20%

30%

9% 13%14% 15%

9%

20%

30%

12 SMA = 8

0%

10%

O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

7%

9% 9%6%

0%

10%

O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

12 SMA = 31


Preferred Vehicle Types Over Time 3 SMABase = Potential Customers

%

30%

Minivan

30%

Pickup Truck

12 SMA = 7 12 SMA = 11

9%12%

9% 9%

4% 4% 5%10%

20%

9% 9% 10%12%

9%11%

10%10%

20%

0%O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

0%O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

Small SUV Large SUV

9%11% 12% 14%

12%20%

30%

9% 8% 8%

20%

30% 12 SMA = 712 SMA = 13

8% 9% 9%

0%

10%

O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

9% 8% 7% 6%6%

8% 8%

0%

10%

O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12


IV. Brand PreferencesA. Top Ten Brands Consumers Would BuyB. Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Top Ten Brands)

Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy TodaylApril 2012 Base = Potential Customers


19%

12% 12%

15%14% 14%

12% 12%

8%

5%4%

3%2% 2% 2%

8%7%

5%3%

2% 2%1%1%

Ford Chevrolet Toyota Honda Nissan GMC Hyundai Chrysler Dodge Subaru


Sorted by 3SMA

By Vehicle OriginlApril 2012 Base = All Respondents

Likely to Purchase by Origin

12Month Average 3Month Average80%

90%

100%


50%

60%

70%

43%

31%

6%

41% 38%

7%10%

20%

30%

40%

6% 7%

American Asian European0%

10%

O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

European Asian American


Q. If you were to buy a vehicle today, what brand would you buy?

Luxury vs. Non‐LuxurylApril 2012 Base = All Respondents

N t

3 Month Average100%

Non‐Luxury76%

Not Sure14%

70%

80%

90%

Luxury10%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Not Sure12%

12 Month Average

10%

20%

30%

40%

Luxury

Non‐Luxury78%

12%

0%

10%

O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

Luxury Non‐Luxury


Q. If you were to buy a vehicle today, what brand would you buy?

uxury10%

Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Top 4 Brands)Base = Potential Customers

30%

Toyota

17%21%

19%

30%

Ford

12 SMA = 19 12 SMA = 12

10% 10% 9% 8%11% 12%

14%

10%

20%13%18% 17%

15%19%

15%

10%

20%

0%O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

0%O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

HondaChevrolet

13% 12%20%

30%

11% 10%14% 15% 16% 14% 14%

20%

30% 12 SMA = 812 SMA = 12

8% 9%12%

7% 6%8%

0%

10%

O 11 N 11 D 11 J 12 F 12 M 12 A 12

11% 10%

0%

10%

O 11 N 11 D 11 J 12 F 12 M 12 A 12


O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Brands 5‐8)Base = Potential Customers

%

30%

GMC

30%

Dodge

12 SMA = 4 12 SMA = 2

2% 3% 4%6% 6% 7% 5%10%

20%

4% 3%1% 2% 1%

2%2%

10%

20%

Chrysler

0%O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

0%O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

Nissan

20%

30%

20%

30% 12 SMA = 212 SMA = 5

1% 1% 1%2% 2% 3%

2%

0%

10%

O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

4% 3% 2% 2%4% 6%

7%

0%

10%

O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12


Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Brands 9‐10)Base = Potential Customers

%

30%

Subaru

%

30%

Hyundai

12 SMA = 3 12 SMA = 2

2% 1%2% 2% 2% 2% 1%

10%

20%

2% 2% 3% 2% 3%2% 3%

10%

20%

0%O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

0%O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12


Conclusions

The Auto Demand Index tumbles as a casualty to high gasoline prices. TechnoMetrica’s research has shown high gasoline prices is the biggest wildcard car manufacturers face today. This is highly likely to produce a drop in car sales during the second quarter.y g y y p p g q

Only 11% of Americans are considering buying a new car within the next six months, up from 8% in March, but down significantly from the January high.

Persisting high gasoline prices could drive down demand and add to the financial troubles of the already vulnerable auto industry. Further, a sharp slump in car sales has immense potential to significantly affect the economy and employment.

Auto manufacturers and their dealers must proactively prepare for a sales slowdown. Auto factories take a long time to alter production rates and no manufacturer wants to have too many cars in inventory The same holds true for car dealers who must financehave too many cars in inventory. The same holds true for car dealers, who must finance the unsold cars in their inventory.

A rational energy policy, which acknowledges the realities of our resources, our


preferences as consumers, and the realities of our environment, may be the best way to reduce America’s gas pains disappear.

Contact Information

To request a full data set or for any questions, please contact us.

Contact: Raghavan Mayur

Address: 70 Hilltop Road, Suite 1001Ramsey, NJ 07446

Phone: 800‐328‐TECH (8324)201‐986‐1288

Fax: 201‐986‐0119

Email: mayur@technometrica comEmail: [email protected]

Web: www.technometrica.com


technometrica auto demand index for april 2012

Business

base allrespondents

mayur technometrica

technometrica

month

ramsey

byage

ccr

april