tennessee...2021/01/08 · source: tennessee department of labor and workforce development, bureau...

Tennessee Economic and Fiscal Indicators

January 8, 2021

Source: Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

• Tennessee had a 5.3% unemployment rate in November, a decrease from October’s 7.3% rate. The rate decreased because of unusually large estimated employment growth in November. The growth may be revised downward in coming months, which would raise the revised November unemployment rate.

• The U.S. unemployment rate remained at 6.7% in December, a notable decline from the 14.7% peak in April.

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Figure 1: U.S. & Tennessee Unemployment RateUpdated monthly; last revision 1/8/21.

Note: Calculated on seasonally adjusted monthly data.


• Total non-farm Tennessee November employment is down 3.6% compared to last year. Tennessee has seen a decline across most sectors, with Leisure & Hospitality down 13.0% and Manufacturing 6.0% lower than last year. Thisemployment series shows much smaller November employment gains than the series used in Figure 1 for the unemployment rate.

• The U.S. lost 140,000 jobs in December, and employment is 6.2% below last year. Leisure & Hospitality, has the largest decline, at 22.8%.

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Figure 2: Tennessee Total Nonfarm Employment GrowthUpdated monthly; last revision 1/8/21.


Figure 3: Unemployment Claims, 2006 through January 2021Updated weekly; last revision 1/7/21.

• Tennessee has seen 970,730 initial claims in 43 weeks. Claims have been over 10,000 for the past two weeks.

• Claims increased by 6,404, after also increasing last week. Normal post-holiday seasonal patterns are responsible for some of the growth in claims.

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William F. Fox • http://cber.haslam.utk.eduMarch, 2020Source: Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development

Figure 4: Distribution of Initial UI Claims: 12/26/2020Updated weekly; last revision 1/7/21.

• Initial Claims for 12/26 were heaviest in Professional & Business Services. Unclassified firms (other in the graph) have been associated with many claims during the past nineteen weeks.

• Leisure & Hospitality represented nearly one-half of claims during the week of 3/21 and the share has been much smaller every week since.

Financial Activities2% Other Services

5%Education & Health

Services8%

Transportation & Utilities 10%

Trade12%

Manufacturing12%

Leisure & Hospitality16%

Other16%

Professional & Business Services

19%

William F. Fox • http://cber.haslam.utk.eduMarch, 2020Source: Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development

Figure 5: Distribution of Continued Non-Farm UI Claims: 12/26/2021Updated weekly; last revision 1/7/21.

• Continued claims highlight ongoing, aggregated effects across industries. Professional and business services, leisure and hospitality and trade have high shares of continued claims.

Other Services 4% Financial Activities

4%

Transportation & Utilities 6%

Manufacturing11%

Other12%

Education & Health Services

13%

Trade15%

Leisure & Hospitality15%

Professional & Business Services

20%

Source: Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development

Figure 6: Tennessee Unemployment Claims in 2020Updated weekly; last revision 1/7/21.

• Initial claims have fallen from their historic peak and continued claims are declining rapidly. This week marks the thirty-third consecutive week that initial claims have been below the previous historical high of 30,753 (01/10/2009), after 7 weeks above the previous high.

• Continued claims are a better indicator of the number of individuals drawing from the trust fund. Continued claims have increased the past two week after falling every week since 5/9/20. Continued claims increased 14.8% the week of 12/26/2020.

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Initial Claims Continued Claims

William F. Fox • http://cber.haslam.utk.eduMarch, 2020Source: Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Figure 7: UI Claims as a Share of the Labor Force, Week Ending 1/2/2021Updated biweekly; last revision 1/7/21.

ContinuedClaims

• Only Scott and Lake Counties had initial claims above one percent of the labor force, but 12 other counties had more than 0.6 percent. Williamson and Moore Counties had fewer than 0.2 percent claims.

• No county had continued claims above three percent of its labor force, but 9 were above two percent, which is a sharp increase from last week.

Initial Claims

William F. Fox • http://cber.haslam.utk.eduMarch, 2020

Note: Weekly new UI claims at the LWDA regions are scaled to the statewide total new claims filed as reported by the Tennessee Department of Labor & Workforce Development

Source: Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Figure 8: Total UI Claims since 3/21 and Percent of Workforce Filing Claims, Week Ending 1/2/2021Updated biweekly; last revision 1/7/21.

• More than one in four workers have filed for unemployment in all but two of Tennessee’s nine workforce areas; Greater Memphisexceeds one third. Claims remain lowest among more rural, northern parts of Tennessee, and are higher along the state’s southern border.


Note: Weekly new UI claims at the LWDA regions are scaled to the statewide total new claims filed as reported by the Tennessee Department of Labor & Workforce Development.

Source: Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Figure 9: Percent change in new UI claims since 12/26/2020, Week Ending 1/2/2021Updated biweekly; last revision 1/7/21.

• Every region saw a significant increase in initial claims this week.

Figure 10: Growth in Sales & Use Tax CollectionsUpdated monthly; last revision 12/10/20.

Note: Data by month of collection.

Source: Tennessee Department of Revenue, Monthly Revenue Collections.

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)• Sales taxes increased7.1 percent in November, after rising 5.8 percent in October and 1.6 percent in September. Tax collections are based on sales during the previous month. Tennessee continues to see significant purchases of goods with consumption reductions strongest in eating and drinkingplaces and non-taxable services, such as travel. Sales tax growth was increased by marketplacefacilitators being required to collect sales taxes for the first time.

Figure 11: Growth in Total Tax CollectionsUpdated monthly; last revision 12/10/20.

Note: Data by month of collection.


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• Total tax revenues rose very rapidly until mid-March.

• Total tax revenues were up 2.0 percent in November. Sales and privilege taxes grew in November, while many other taxes, including the corporate taxes, fell.July tax collections were elevated and April collections lowered because deadlines for filing several taxes were delayed until July.

Figure 12: Unemployment Rate by County, November 2020Updated monthly; last revision 12/31/20.

% Change, November 2019 to November 2020

• Only 16 counties had a November unemployment rate above 6 percent and 9 were below 4 percent.

The November unemployment rate was higher in every county than last year, but was 1 percent or less higher in 9 counties.

Source: Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Bureau of Labor Statistics: Local Area Unemployment StatisticsIncludes non-farm, agricultural workers and the self-employed

Figure 13: Employment Growth Rate by County, 1-Year Change November 2020Updated monthly; last revision 12/31/20.

• Counties evidence very different employment growth by comparison with last year. Nearly one-third of counties have seen employment decline while nearly one-fourth have seen growth of more than 2 percent. These data parallel those used in Figure 1, which shows a much better employment picture than Figure 2.



Figure 14: Regional employment change from January 2020 (pre-COVID peak)Updated monthly; last revision 12/23/20.


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• A 6% statewide employment increase in November helped push all nine regions of the state over the January employment level.

• Sales taxes rose in 92 counties in November. Many counties had very high growth rates leading up to COVID-19, in part because the sales tax on remote sales is now being collected on a destination basis. The pattern continued in November with revenues growing faster than 30 percent in 22 counties.

•Only Davidson and Moore Counties have experienced a sales tax decrease for the fiscal year to date.


Figure 15: Local Option Sales Tax Revenue Growth by County, Nov. 2019-Nov. 2020Updated monthly; last revision 12/15/20.

Fiscal year to date

Table 1: Unemployment Rate by County, November 2020Updated monthly; last revision 12/31/20.


AreaNov-19

Rev. Nov-20Change(points) Area

Nov-19 Rev. Nov-20

Change(points) Area

Nov-19 Rev. Nov-20

Change(points) Area

Nov-19 Rev. Nov-20

Change(points)

Anderson 3.2 4.7 1.5 Franklin 3.3 4.4 1.1 Lewis 3.2 5.2 2.0 Scott 3.9 6.2 2.3Bedford 3.4 4.9 1.5 Gibson 4.1 5.4 1.3 Lincoln 4.4 5.2 0.8 Sequatchie 3.9 5.3 1.4Benton 3.9 5.8 1.9 Giles 3.6 5.0 1.4 Loudon 3.1 4.4 1.3 Sevier 2.5 3.9 1.4Bledsoe 5.0 6.2 1.2 Grainger 3.7 5.2 1.5 Macon 3.5 5.0 1.5 Shelby 3.7 7.3 3.6Blount 2.9 4.3 1.4 Greene 4.1 5.6 1.5 Madison 4.8 6.9 2.1 Smith 2.7 3.9 1.2Bradley 3.0 4.7 1.7 Grundy 3.9 6.3 2.4 Marion 2.9 4.6 1.7 Stewart 3.9 5.3 1.4Campbell 4.3 5.5 1.2 Hamblen 3.6 4.7 1.1 Marshall 3.3 5.6 2.3 Sullivan 3.4 5.4 2.0Cannon 2.8 4.1 1.3 Hamilton 3.0 4.7 1.7 Maury 4.1 5.1 1.0 Sumner 2.5 4.1 1.6Carroll 4.1 5.6 1.5 Hancock 5.0 6.5 1.5 McMinn 3.5 4.8 1.3 Tipton 3.6 5.3 1.7Carter 3.5 5.3 1.8 Hardeman 5.0 7.0 2.0 McNairy 2.8 4.5 1.7 Trousdale 2.7 4.3 1.6Cheatham 2.4 3.8 1.4 Hardin 4.0 5.8 1.8 Meigs 4.0 5.6 1.6 Unicoi 4.5 6.3 1.8Chester 3.2 4.4 1.2 Hawkins 3.9 5.4 1.5 Monroe 3.5 4.8 1.3 Union 3.6 4.9 1.3Claiborne 3.9 5.0 1.1 Haywood 4.3 6.5 2.2 Montgomery 3.5 5.3 1.8 Van Buren 3.9 5.8 1.9Clay 5.7 6.3 0.6 Henderson 4.0 5.0 1.0 Moore 2.6 3.6 1.0 Warren 3.7 5.5 1.8Cocke 3.9 5.7 1.8 Henry 3.9 5.5 1.6 Morgan 3.6 5.0 1.4 Washington 3.2 4.8 1.6Coffee 3.3 4.6 1.3 Hickman 2.8 4.1 1.3 Obion 4.0 5.9 1.9 Wayne 4.5 5.8 1.3Crockett 3.2 4.5 1.3 Houston 4.1 6.3 2.2 Overton 3.2 4.2 1.0 Weakley 3.4 4.7 1.3Cumberland 4.3 5.7 1.4 Humphreys 3.5 4.5 1.0 Perry 4.2 6.4 2.2 White 3.4 4.6 1.2Davidson 2.3 4.6 2.3 Jackson 4.1 5.6 1.5 Pickett 4.4 4.9 0.5 Williamson 2.3 3.3 1.0

Decatur 4.9 6.1 1.2 Jefferson 3.2 4.7 1.5 Polk 3.4 4.9 1.5 Wilson 2.5 3.9 1.4

De Kalb 4.0 5.8 1.8 Johnson 3.2 5.1 1.9 Putnam 3.1 4.6 1.5Dickson 2.7 3.8 1.1 Knox 2.7 4.1 1.4 Rhea 4.6 6.1 1.5

Tennessee 3.1 5.0 1.9Dyer 4.4 5.7 1.3 Lake 4.7 8.1 3.4 Roane 3.6 5.1 1.5Fayette 3.6 5.0 1.4 Lauderdale 5.0 6.8 1.8 Robertson 2.6 4.0 1.4 Tennessee

(Seas adj) 3.3 6.7 3.4Fentress 4.0 5.7 1.7 Lawrence 3.7 4.9 1.2 Rutherford 2.4 3.9 1.5

Table 2: Employment Growth Rate by County, November 2020Updated monthly; last revision 12/31/20.


AreaNov-19

Rev. Nov-20Change

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Rev. Nov-20Change

(%) AreaNov-19

Rev. Nov-20Change

(%) AreaNov-19

Rev. Nov-20Change

(%)

Anderson 33,924 34,718 2.3 Franklin 20,026 20,088 0.3 Lewis 5,162 5,117 -0.9 Scott 7,984 8,085 1.3Bedford 20,598 20,762 0.8 Gibson 21,546 21,782 1.1 Lincoln 16,021 15,576 -2.8 Sequatchie 6,015 6,211 3.3Benton 6,627 6,660 0.5 Giles 14,630 14,491 -1.0 Loudon 23,223 23,751 2.3 Sevier 53,515 52,072 -2.7Bledsoe 4,247 4,331 2.0 Grainger 9,346 9,566 2.4 Macon 23,155 23,485 1.4 Shelby 434,025 434,621 0.1Blount 62,598 64,058 2.3 Greene 28,508 28,740 0.8 Madison 8,245 8,423 2.2 Smith 9,462 9,408 -0.6Bradley 52,807 53,199 0.7 Grundy 4,905 4,927 0.4 Marion 11,404 11,345 -0.5 Stewart 5,356 5,467 2.1Campbell 14,412 14,751 2.4 Hamblen 27,595 28,066 1.7 Marshall 47,792 47,847 0.1 Sullivan 68,295 67,710 -0.9Cannon 6,590 6,546 -0.7 Hamilton 179,784 185,585 3.2 Maury 12,087 12,478 3.2 Sumner 102,260 101,638 -0.6Carroll 11,618 11,929 2.7 Hancock 2,049 2,081 1.6 McMinn 15,344 15,282 -0.4 Tipton 27,597 27,635 0.1Carter 23,416 23,250 -0.7 Hardeman 9,200 9,272 0.8 McNairy 49,229 48,905 -0.7 Trousdale 5,421 5,388 -0.6Cheatham 21,893 21,794 -0.5 Hardin 10,113 10,270 1.6 Meigs 5,036 5,152 2.3 Unicoi 6,940 6,887 -0.8Chester 8,407 8,414 0.1 Hawkins 23,009 22,800 -0.9 Monroe 19,707 20,224 2.6 Union 7,449 7,630 2.4Claiborne 12,708 12,877 1.3 Haywood 7,547 7,592 0.6 Montgomery 83,629 85,605 2.4 Van Buren 1,985 1,994 0.5Clay 2,653 2,673 0.8 Henderson 11,885 12,084 1.7 Moore 3,609 3,681 2.0 Warren 16,276 16,069 -1.3Cocke 14,420 14,411 -0.1 Henry 13,737 13,792 0.4 Morgan 7,722 7,896 2.3 Washington 59,255 58,738 -0.9Coffee 25,084 25,132 0.2 Hickman 11,419 11,365 -0.5 Obion 12,092 12,482 3.2 Wayne 6,002 6,014 0.2Crockett 6,960 6,975 0.2 Houston 3,203 3,224 0.7 Overton 9,876 10,178 3.1 Weakley 15,844 15,905 0.4Cumberland 22,850 23,215 1.6 Humphreys 8,684 8,764 0.9 Perry 3,003 3,012 0.3 White 12,018 12,170 1.3Davidson 404,061 401,421 -0.7 Jackson 4,555 4,635 1.8 Pickett 2,304 2,279 -1.1 Williamson 128,670 127,958 -0.6Decatur 4,373 4,367 -0.1 Jefferson 24,148 24,562 1.7 Polk 7,596 7,654 0.8 Wilson 76,686 76,168 -0.7De Kalb 7,531 7,452 -1.0 Johnson 7,582 7,751 2.2 Putnam 34,735 35,784 3.0Dickson 26,951 26,771 -0.7 Knox 240,724 246,323 2.3 Rhea 12,991 13,095 0.8

Tennessee 3,251,920 3,277,735 0.79Dyer 15,967 16,316 2.2 Lake 1,689 1,690 0.1 Roane 22,863 23,387 2.3Fayette 18,948 18,988 0.2 Lauderdale 9,396 9,523 1.4 Robertson 38,118 37,869 -0.7 Tennessee

(Seas adj) 3,250,818 3,278,073 0.84Fentress 7,421 7,519 1.3 Lawrence 18,947 19,197 1.3 Rutherford 184,095 182,764 -0.7

Table 3: Local Option Sales Tax Revenue Growth by County, Nov. 2019-Nov. 2020Updated monthly; last revision 12/15/20.


Area Oct-19 $ Oct-20 $Change

(%) Area Oct-19 $ Oct-20 $Change



(%)

Anderson 3,003,334 3,548,338 18.1 Franklin 797,494 946,700 18.7 Lewis 304,008 385,386 26.8 Scott 331,954 397,257 19.7Bedford 1,163,674 1,411,705 21.3 Gibson 1,040,135 1,255,775 20.7 Lincoln 676,091 767,106 13.5 Sequatchie 302,334 366,634 21.3Benton 389,925 475,915 22.1 Giles 706,391 856,584 21.3 Loudon 1,126,455 1,400,462 24.3 Sevier 11,423,852 14,276,722 25.0Bledsoe 100,605 127,725 27.0 Grainger 219,948 308,177 40.1 McMinn 958,974 1,593,172 66.1 Shelby 29,222,087 38,005,929 30.1Blount 4,657,059 5,388,930 15.7 Greene 1,606,048 1,893,823 17.9 McNairy 320,424 394,986 23.3 Smith 362,393 447,702 23.5Bradley 3,098,699 3,766,811 21.6 Grundy 136,766 186,681 36.5 Macon 446,326 550,955 23.4 Stewart 191,003 246,417 29.0Campbell 716,281 828,152 15.6 Hamblen 2,225,568 2,594,154 16.6 Madison 4,421,323 5,130,710 16.0 Sullivan 4,699,510 5,288,927 12.5Cannon 118,766 158,482 33.4 Hamilton 12,960,104 14,410,562 11.2 Marion 805,360 952,661 18.3 Sumner 4,470,631 5,399,501 20.8Carroll 475,954 615,667 29.4 Hancock 40,760 52,469 28.7 Marshall 663,907 896,923 35.1 Tipton 965,689 1,230,494 27.4Carter 1,089,364 1,351,652 24.1 Hardeman 350,980 445,829 27.0 Maury 2,531,476 3,856,961 52.4 Trousdale 114,222 132,433 15.9Cheatham 843,724 1,005,660 19.2 Hardin 759,332 879,155 15.8 Meigs 78,621 124,836 58.8 Unicoi 357,743 447,828 25.2Chester 237,444 310,312 30.7 Hawkins 920,468 1,132,156 23.0 Monroe 952,453 1,174,159 23.3 Union 175,623 225,269 28.3Claiborne 383,970 493,579 28.5 Haywood 286,890 363,530 26.7 Montgomery 6,007,372 7,203,174 19.9 Van Buren 59,101 90,710 53.5Clay 88,852 126,427 42.3 Henderson 637,281 757,956 18.9 Moore 115,795 111,308 -3.9 Warren 938,546 1,213,542 29.3Cocke 815,807 1,046,328 28.3 Henry 873,452 1,070,778 22.6 Morgan 139,654 187,710 34.4 Washington 4,510,785 5,018,623 11.3Coffee 2,001,768 2,449,086 22.3 Hickman 255,854 361,791 41.4 Obion 806,719 939,599 16.5 Wayne 193,065 253,902 31.5Crockett 188,422 249,542 32.4 Houston 107,854 124,439 15.4 Overton 368,019 440,796 19.8 Weakley 671,776 788,721 17.4Cumberland 1,781,110 2,060,785 15.7 Humphreys 401,241 487,065 21.4 Perry 101,758 153,524 50.9 White 420,459 585,955 39.4Davidson 40,971,547 37,892,547 -7.5 Jackson 84,332 133,182 57.9 Pickett 80,307 103,319 28.7 Williamson 12,714,027 14,434,207 13.5Decatur 215,526 263,763 22.4 Jefferson 1,108,386 1,408,882 27.1 Polk 172,727 220,352 27.6 Wilson 4,203,505 6,446,974 53.4De Kalb 361,334 443,729 22.8 Johnson 135,759 179,959 32.6 Putnam 4,043,762 3,763,672 -6.9 Out-of-state

collections 15,038,782 3,187,946 -78.80Dickson 1,817,123 2,103,948 15.8 Knox 18,029,276 20,234,726 12.2 Rhea 800,467 941,055 17.6Dyer 1,080,499 1,254,340 16.1 Lake 64,423 81,435 26.4 Roane 1,541,866 1,753,341 13.7 Telecomm

collections 1,854,889 6,803,884 266.81Fayette 739,058 1,128,140 52.6 Lauderdale 324,103 404,780 24.9 Robertson 2,031,495 2,354,332 15.9Fentress 312,026 422,996 35.6 Lawrence 988,399 1,226,426 24.1 Rutherford 12,185,900 14,884,940 22.1 Total Local Sales 246,616,347 276,296,588 12.03

tennessee...2021/01/08 · source: tennessee department of labor and workforce development, bureau...

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