TEXAS EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION NEEDS

ASSESSMENTPresentation to the

Texas Early Learning Council

September 28, 2012

Project Partners

Ray Marshall Center for the Study of Human ResourcesLBJ School of Public Affairs University of Texas at Austin

Hobby Center for the

Study of Texas Rice University

Project Purpose

To give the state and organizationsserving young children

a clear picture of the nature of the population of young Texans

and the projected need for early education services

Project Scope Children ages 0 through 12

All children needing child care Population eligible for specific programs

(e.g., Head Start, CCDF, Pre-K)

Formal early childhood education and school-age care providers and slots

Quality programs accredited by a national or state quality measure

State of Texas and smaller geographic areas

Project conducted by only using existing data

Research Objectives

1. Estimate total children under age 13 and those eligible for ECE and school-age care

2. Document current supply of ECE and SAC

3. Conduct a gap analysis based on these data

4. Generate a comprehensive needs assessment analyzing Texas’ early childhood education and school-age care system

Understand and estimate the total number of children under age 13 and those eligible for early childhood

education programs

Objective 1:

Data Sources

U.S. Census Data, 2000 and 2010 Population of Texas children ages 0-12

Texas Department of Health Birth and death rates

American Community Survey, 2006-2010 Socioeconomic characteristics of

households

Types of Results

Change in 0-12 population, 2000-2010 Child population projections to 2015 and 2040 Socioeconomic characteristics of households with

children 0-12 in 2010 and projected to 2015 All results presented for:

Entire state Councils of Governments Metropolitan Areas Counties

Key Population Findings

Nearly 5 million Texas children ages 0-12 in 2010 Texas child population increased by 17% from 2000 to 2010

and accounted for over 50% of total US growth Growth expected to slow from 2010 to 2015 but still larger than

growth in any other state over past 10 years Growth concentrated within metro areas and dominated by

minorities Hispanic children were 49% of total in 2010 and projected to

make up 65% of growth to 2015 1.2 million children (24.9%) were living in poverty in 2010; 1.3

million (25.4%) projected to do so in 2015

Population Distribution for Ages 0-12, 2010

0-2 years old

3-4 years old

5-12 years old Total

1,151,310 777,163 3,066,796 4,995,269

0-2 years old

23%

3-4 years old

16%

5-12 years old

61%

0-2years old

3-4years old

5-12years old

Percent Change in Total 0-12 Populationfor Texas Counties, 2000 - 2010 Counties, 2010

Percent Change<100 Persons in 2000 (3)Population decline (118)No change or less than 10% (69)At least 10% but less than State growth [17.2% (26)]Greater or equal to State growth [17.2% (38)] Source US Census 2000 and 2010, SF1

Understand and document the current supply across the state of Texas

of formal providers of early childhood education programs and services

and school-age care for children under the age of 13

Objective 2:

Supply Data Sources

DFPS(child care licencsing)

ERC(Pre-K, PPCD, IDEA)

HHS ACF(Head Start)

Types of Supply Results Total unduplicated formal supply of early care

and education and services Specific supply results for:

Child care centers and family homes Pre-kindergarten (public and private) Military child care Head Start and Early Head Start CCDF subsidies IDEA services (ECI and PPCD) School-age care (partial)

Number of providers and number of slots for state, COGs, MSAs and counties if data available

Key Supply Findings Over 23,000 unduplicated providers of ECE in 2010 (centers,

homes, public Pre-K and military) had capacity to serve nearly 860,000 children, ages 0-4

35% of providers and 67% of slots in licensed child care centers

13% of providers and 26% of slots in public Pre-K

Other providers: Head Start (1,260 providers serving 93,000 children)

Private Pre-K (1,064 providers serving 55,000 children)

CCDF (12,600 providers serving nearly 140,000 children)

ECI (56 providers serving 66,600 children)

PPCD (4,000 providers serving 42,000 children)

2010 Total Supply of Unduplicated

Formal ECE Providers and Slots for Texas Children 0-4

Total Unduplicated Formal ECE Slots Ages 0-4 by County, 2010

Includes child care centers, family homes, public Pre-K and military.

Slots< 100 (44)100 – 249 (47)250 – 499 (40)500 – 999 (43)1,000 or More (80)

Texas School Ready!

Texas Rising Star

National Association for Education of Young Children

National Association for Family Child Care

National Early Childhood Program Accreditation

National Association of Child Care Professionals

Association of Christian Schools International

National Afterschool Association

Data Sources for Measuring Quality

Every COG and MSA has at least one provider meeting some type of quality standard

Only 160 of 254 have at least one provider meeting any type of quality standard

Unduplicated list of quality providers by county could not be determined due to lack of common identifiers across data sources

Distribution by COG, MSA and county provided for TSR! And TRS

Key Quality Findings

Distribution of TRS Sites by County

Conduct a gap analysis based on the completion of objectives 1 and 2

Compare gaps in the demand for services and the available supply

Identify the gap between the need for high-quality services and the availability of such services

Objective 3:

Gap Analysis Key Findings Unduplicated formal ECE slots in 2010 could serve 45% of

Texas children 0-4 and 78% of children with working parents Also measured for 0-2, 3-4 by COG, MSA and county

Model estimates for 20 largest counties of relative gaps (after controlling for family structure, employment and income):

Largest relative supply in Galveston, Webb and Bell counties Smallest relative supply in Brazoria and Dallas counties Current supply compared to population growth through 2040

Service gaps estimated for specific programs (e.g. public Pre- K, Head Start) if possible but data gaps prevented full analysis

Biggest data gaps were in measurement of school-age care and linking quality information to provider information

Proportion of Unduplicated Formal ECE Slots by Countyper 100 Children Under Age 5 in 2010

Relative Supply of Current Care by Projected Child Population Growth from 2010 to 2015 for 20 Largest Counties

Bell

Bexar

Brazoria

Cameron

Collin

Dallas

Denton

El Paso

Fort Bend

Galveston

Harris

Hidalgo

Jefferson

Lubbock

Montgomery

Nueces

TarrantTravis

Webb

Williamson

-5.0%

-2.5%

0.0%

2.5%

5.0%

7.5%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

App

aren

t ove

rsup

ply

of c

hild

car

e sl

ots

Projected County population growth, 2010-2015, children 0-4

Oversupply

Undersupply

Complete comprehensive needs assessment Currently refining conclusions and recommendations

Outside and peer reviews of all four reports

Technical review of all statistical work

Documentation of all data sets and methods Public dissemination of findings

University of Texas LBJ School of Public Affairs October 29, 2012

Electronic publication of all reports

Remaining Work

For Additional Information

Deanna SchexnayderRay Marshall Center for the Study of Human ResourcesLyndon B. Johnson School of Public AffairsThe University of Texas At Austin(512) 471-7891dschex@raymarshallcenter.org