th lt d b lthe malt and barley supply/demand situation in...
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Th lt d b lThe malt and barley supply/demand situation in A t liAustralia ‘A Brewers Perspective’
Dr Mark GoldsmithManager Beverage MaterialsTechnical Services
ContentContent
Gl b l B T d• Global Beer Trends• Australian Beer Consumption
A t li M lti B l S l• Australian Malting Barley Supply• Australian Brewing Demand• Australian Brewing Barley Requirement• The Future • Summary
Global beer trends - consumptionGlobal beer trends - consumption
W ld b it ti h i d b 20%• World beer per capita consumption has increased by 20% over the last 10 years, outpacing spirits, wine and cider#
• Global growth is expected to continue at 2-3%* pag• E Europe, Latin America, Asia, Africa annual growth will
be 3-4%* driven by increasing personal wealth and shift from spiritsfrom spirits
• US, Japan, Australia trend will be flat but 4%* annual growth in premium sector
• Western Europe will decline – switch to wine• Imports continue to do well in all markets with growth at
6%+*6%+
Sources: *Eurocare Alcohol Trends Report April 2009# Canadean – Brewers Guardian Feb 2010
Global beer trends - productGlobal beer trends - product
P i i ti• Premiumisation• authenticity, materials, process, packaging, pricing,
origin (import)g ( )• craft beer
• Flavour• both at entry point as RTD alternative and as a means
of premium differentiation• WellbeingWellbeing
• low-carb, low joule, nutrition, wellness ingredients, • Alcohol reduction
• driven by social pressure – 4% is the new 5%, • In developing countries emphasis is on cheap
affordable beer often low abv low bitternessaffordable beer, often low abv, low bitterness
Premium/Super Premium BeersPremium/Super Premium Beers
US t d t d hi h fl hi h b ff i• US - trend toward high flavour, high abv offerings• Michelob 2006 Celebrate beers, Chocolate (matured
on cocoa beans), Vanilla Oak (aged in bourbon casks ) ( gon whole Madagascan vanilla beans
• Samuel Adams Utopia, 25% abv, limited edition
S l AdSamuel Adams Utopia
Premium/Super Premium BeerspEurope
UK i l i t diti l b i• UK - revival in traditional brewing credentials
– Green King Strong Suffolk Vintage g g gAle brewed at 6% abv and matured for 2 years in oak barrels
• Denmark – traditional use of fruits &• Denmark – traditional use of fruits & herbs
• Bramley Wit, a Belgian style wheat beer with Bramley and Belle de Boskoop apples, orange peel, cloves, coriander
JacobsenJacobsen Bramley Wit
Premium/Super Premium BeerspAustralia
S l b d hi l f li it d diti• Seasonal beers used as vehicle for limited editions• Crown Ambassador Reserve – using ‘green’ hops
Crown AmbassadorAmbassador
Reserve
CraftCraft
• The craft sector is important in creating knowledge, p g g ,enthusiasm, and language around beer, as well as a connection with ingredients
• US - About 3.4% of market*, growth at 9% p/a• Trend towards highly flavoured beers, bitterness >50g y ,
• UK - About 1.7% of market*, growth at 12% p/a*• Revisiting older styles of ales
* Consolidated industry estimates
CraftCraft
A t li i 2% k t* th 13% / *• Australia – circa 2% market*, growth 13% p/a*• Limited range of styles, but increasing
120 Microbreweries in Australia
* Consolidated industry estimates
Flavoured beersFlavoured beers
Fl f h t i i t• Flavours, refreshment, energy, aiming at young, and/or female consumers
• Explosion of flavoured beers in Europe and US• Explosion of flavoured beers in Europe and US• Positioned both in full strength and lower alcohol
segmentssegments
UK - Chocolate & Strawberry beer aimed at females
Flavoured beers - EuropeFlavoured beers - Europe
G t d t f ll RTD fl• German trend to follow RTD flavours • beer with cola
• UK market favours citrusUK market favours citrus• Carlsberg Edge & Fosters Twist
with lime, Becks Green with lemonFosters Twist
Lime flavour
Becks green lemon orange
Carlsberg EdgeLime flavour
Becks - green lemon, orange, lime + mint
Flavoured beers - USAFlavoured beers - USA
D i b j b ft• Driven by major brewers – often targeting specific ethnic groupings esp. Hispanic
• A-B 9th Street Market • eg. Pomegranate & Raspberry
A B Chelada (Bud + Clamato• A-B Chelada (Bud + Clamato Juice)
• Miller Chill (salt & lime)
Miller ChillLime & Salt
Flavoured beersFlavoured beers
I A i fl d b h ll b iti d• In Asia flavoured beers have usually been positioned as lower abv, refreshment products
• Guangdong Blue Ribbon 3%abv - pineappleg g• Jilin Yuehai Yinpu 2.2% abv - tangy apple
• Australia new category
Carlton Dry Fusion LimeCarlton Dry Fusion Lemon
Bare Cove Radler
Low/Lower Carb beersLow/Lower Carb beers• US standard for low carb – approx 2.0g/100ml• Over 50% of US beers are therefore ‘low carb’
• Miller Lite – the original low carb beer• Bud Light biggest selling beer in US• Bud Light – biggest selling beer in US• Michelob Ultra – extreme low carb <0.7g/100ml
Low/Lower Carb beersLow/Lower Carb beers
• No Australian standard, but taken to beLow carb = <1.5g/100mlLower carb = < 2.2g/100mlA t li t til 4• Australia – non category until 4 years ago
• Pure Blonde <1.0g/100ml• Plus Platinum Blonde Hahn Super Dry &Plus Platinum Blonde, Hahn Super Dry &
various others• XXXX Gold, Carlton Dry occupy lower
b tcarb sector• Europe - very weak low carb sector
Low Calorie / Low JouleLow Calorie / Low Joule
C f d t i l Li ht Lit Di t Di t L C b• Confused terminology – Light, Lite, Diet, Diat, Low Carb, Low Sugar, Low GI, Low Joule/Calorie
• ‘Low carb’ attracting some criticism as implying ‘low g y gcalorie’
• “Myth of the low carb beer”Calories contributed by alcohol and carbs• Calories contributed by alcohol and carbs
• 1gm alcohol = 7 calories; 1gm carb = 4 calories• In low alcohol beers carbs were often used to replaceIn low alcohol beers carbs were often used to replace
alcohol ‘mouthfeel• Carlton Mid has 4.0g/100ml of carbs
VB h 3 0 /100 l• VB has 3.0g/100ml• Germany - Becks Light sold as 64 calories per bottle• US - Miller Chill sold as 100 calories per bottleUS - Miller Chill sold as 100 calories per bottle
Low calorie / Low jouleLow calorie / Low joule
Becks Light
3.7% abv Corona Light
g64 calories
Corona Light from Mexico
– 105 calories105 calories100 Calorie
Australian Beer Consumption
Herald Sun May 28 2010Beer drinking in Australia at 60 year lowBeer consumption hits 1950’s levelsGap between wine and beer narrowing
Courier Mail November 14 2008E i t h i ti d i kEven in tough economic times, drinkers reach for a cold one to quench that hard-earned thirstearned thirst Australians spend $7.9 billion on beer a year wine sales are at $4.8 billionand spirits are at $3.5 billion annuallydemand for boutique beer has grown by 11.3
t i l tper cent in last year
Australian alcohol consumption per capita (>15 )Australian alcohol consumption per capita (>15 years)
6 105 L / person >15 yrs
4
5
rson 4.49
3
4
hol /
per Beer
WineS i it
1
2
L al
coh Spirit
0
996
997
998
999
000
001
002
003
004
005
006
007
008
009
19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Australian alcohol available for consumptionAustralian alcohol available for consumption
80,000
100,000
hol
60,000
es o
f alc
o
Beer Wine
20,000
40,000
'000
litre Spirit
0
996
997
998
999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Australian beer available for consumptionAustralian beer available for consumption
2,000
1,600
,Low strength (>1.15 and=<3.0)
800
1,200
M L
itres
Mid strength (>3.0 and=<3.5)
400
800M Full strength (>3.5)
Total
0
001
002
003
004
005
006
007
008
009
Total
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Low and Midstrength beer consumptionLow and Midstrength beer consumption
250,000
300,000
40%
150,000
200,000
000
L
Low strength(>1.15 and=<3.0)30%
40%
50,000
100,000
'0
Mid strength(>3.0 and
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
=<3.5)
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Australian Barley Supplyy y
Australian Barley ProductionAustralian Barley Production
10000
8000
4000
6000
kT
2000
095-96
96-97
97-98
98-99
99-00
00-01
01-02
02-03
03-04
04-05
05-06
06-07
07-08
08-09
09-10
Source: ABARE
Australian Malting Barley ProductionAustralian Malting Barley Production
10000
Total Malting
6000
8000
T
2000
4000
kT
095- 96- 97- 98- 99- 00- 01- 02- 03- 04- 05- 06- 07- 08- 09-96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: BBM estimate
Australian Malting Barley Production – Domestic brewing use
Total Malting Domestic Brewing
10000
Total Malting Domestic Brewing
3% 9%
6000
8000
T
2000
4000
k
095-96
96-97
97-98
98-99
99-00
00-01
01-02
02-03
03-04
04-05
05-06
06-07
07-08
08-09
09-1096 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Australian Malting and Brewing sitesAustralian Malting and Brewing sites
MaltingBrewing
Australian malting barley supply and demandAustralian malting barley - supply and demand
800
600
700
Average Malting Barley
400
500
barle
y
Average Malting BarleyProduction 2000 - 2009Malting Capacity
200
300kT b
Brewing demand
0
100
S Q SNSW Vic Qld WA SA Tas
WA malting barley demandWA malting barley demand
Market usage Baudin Buloke Gairdner Hamelin Schooner Stirling Vlamingh
Export grain Very High Moderate High Contract X Low Moderatep g(>500,000 mT) Very High Moderate High Contract X Low Moderate
Export malt (300,000 mT) High Moderate
– High High Contract X Very Low Low –Moderate(300,000 mT) High Moderate
Domestic brewing (15,000 mT) X X Low X Contract Very Low X
Shochu (140,000 mT) Moderate X X X X High X
Overall demand Increasing Developing Stable to Limited Limited Decreasing DevelopingOverall demand Increasing Developing decreasing Limited Limited Decreasing Developing
Source: GIWA Barley Council
Domestic and Export UseDomestic and Export Use
MBIBTC lt i t• MBIBTC malt scoring system • Two brewing styles
• sugar adjunctsugar adjunct• starch adjunct
• 6 parameters
• ExtractModification Same requirements • Modification
• Beta glucan• Viscosity
qfor both brewing styles
scos ty
• Attenuation High - for starch brewing• Diastase Low - for sugar brewing
Baudin (2002)Malting varieties Baudin (2002)Hamelin (2002)Flagship (2005)Gairdner (1997)Stirling (1980)
g
Buloke (2006)Vlamingh (2006)Hindmarsh *
Gairdner (1997)Fitzroy (2005)Commander (2009)
Stirling (1980)Grimmett (1982)Schooner (1983)
Low Malt Attenuation High
Hindmarsh *( )( )
Low Malt Attenuation High
Low alcohol Regular alcohol Low carb / DryMid alcohol
g yAll malt beers
Variety not relevant to Australian Beer Styles (sugar adjuncts)Variety not relevant to consumers
Australian Beer Stylesy
No direct correlation between beer style and malt usage
Malt UsageC f
Low alcoholLow Carb / Dry
Fl d
Craft
Premium
Regular alcohol All maltMid l h l
FlavouredLow cost
Mid alcohol
The FutureThe Future
*beer means a brewed beverage that:• *beer means a brewed beverage that: • a) is the product of the yeast fermentation of an aqueous extract,
being predominantly an aqueous extract of cereals: • i) whether the cereals are malted or unmalted; and• ii) whether or not the aqueous extract contains other sources of
carbohydrates; and………
• Beer produced from unmalted barley?• Australian brewers will not use materials derived from GM crops• Australian brewers will not use materials derived from GM crops
to produce beer• Government Tax
• "The tax on one standard drink of wine is about 4c on beer around 37c and on a standard• The tax on one standard drink of wine is about 4c, on beer around 37c, and on a standard spirits drink or an RTD it's about 93c“
• Greens leader Bob Brown will today announce in Melbourne the party's plan to impose a 1.5 per cent levy on alcohol and junk food ads (Herald Sun 21/7/10)
* Australian Excise Tariff Act
SummarySummary
Gl b l b ti ti t i• Global beer consumption continues to rise• Australian beer consumption is flat
A t li lti b l l t t i• Australian malting barley supply outstrips domestic brewing demand
However variety development not• However, variety development not favourable for domestic brewers
• The number of beer styles continues to grow• The number of beer styles continues to grow both globally and in Australia
• However no direct impact of beer style onHowever, no direct impact of beer style on malt usage (apart from low cost and premium)
• Australian brewers have a no GM crop policyp p y