Thanks! And Think BIG!The view from an admirer…

John WienerPresentation to the ARKANSAS BASIN ROUNDTABLE

09 October 13john.wiener@colorado.edu

www.colorado.edu/ibs/eb/wiener/

A Look Back – Wow!

• 1997 – My first look, asking people about when they make what decisions, and how weather and climate info might help

• Water sharing? When to make deals… “Can’t work!” Said the folks now making it work!

• The Drought, the Lower Ark, the Highline Lease, the SWSI, the Water Bank Sorta-try, the SuperDitch…

• And the Water Transfers Guidelines Committee• And the Ark Needs Assessments! Wow!

GOOD NEWS!

The Palmer Land Trust Plan –

Found Great Resource ValuesGreat Human Values

But, does it go far enough?Great for pieces…

How far can the Valley go?

HOW CAN VALLEY FARMING STAY VIABLE, PROFITABLE,AND SAFE FROM OUTSIDEPRESSURES?

Craig Cox*, Andrew Hug, and Nils

Bruzelius, 2011, Losing Ground

*Director of Soil and Water Conservation Society for many

years

Soil erosion is likely considerably worse than had beenestimated

BAD NEWS FROM BIG AG:EROSION has Big impacts!

SEE NEW USDA CLIMATE CHANGE AND U.S. AGRICULTURE, 2012; TECH. INFO. BULLETIN NO. 1935, WALTHALL ET AL.

Back to pre-emergent herbicides, post-emergents…. AND Tillage… “Stay with the package”But make the package more complicated… And, see National Research Council, 2012c, National Summit on Strategies to Manage Herbicide-Resistant Weeds: Proceedings of aSymposium. Washington, D.C.: National Academies Press. (Free on-line as all NRC reports)

Big Vs Small US Farming: Two Sets of Problems• For the Big conventional Ag: Sustainability Doubtful…

• Erosion of soil, soil quality losses already very serious!• Herbicide and other resistance evolving fast; no till at risk!• Input prices out of control, net being squeezed, “treadmill”• Water quality worsening with more corn, new land in crops?

• “THE SMOKING GUN”: 25 years (1982-2007) : same # acres but 22% are not the same acres! DISPLACEMENT FROM BEST LAND onto lower quality… and now, very rapid “sod-busting” again

• FOR EVERYONE: CLIMATE VARIATION AND CHANGE – higher intensity precipitation events, more frequent extremes with cumulative impacts… destructive sequences…

• For the small operations with 60% of US Farmland but only 16% of sales… and 7% of net farm income: HIGH VULNERABILITY• Urbanization, rural residential development – tremendous land loss!• Inability to finance resilience to climate and “markets”!

Keeping Water in Valley Ag is NBNS(Necessary But Not Sufficient)

• Better water management possible– PARTICIPATION, PARTNERSHIPS…– COST COMPARISONS needed, short-term– GOALS and VALUES needed, long-term– LONG-TERM FINANCING – Cities have some…– ARK BRT LEADING in Better transfers

• But FUTURE VALUE OF HIGH QUALITY IRRIGATED LAND NEAR MARKETS IS GOING TO BE MUCH HIGHER(see notes)

• HOW CAN COLORADO IRRIGATED FARMING KEEP THE LAND AND THE WATER AND KEEP CHOICES OPEN?

THREE FUNDAMENTALS from the science:• Work for NET yield (not the same as maximum output,

but best return on investment of inputs)… and the LONG planning horizon! THINK GRANDCHILDREN

• RIGHT-SIZING – best scale for a given combination of operations – economies of scale can be by groups

• AND WORKING WITH NATURE – combine sets of right-sized operations, resources, and projects to achieve higher levels of resilience… (e.g., sets of renewable energy sources and scales of farms and cooperating groups of farms and ranches). (long note!)

Thinking out of the farm-scale box

• My argument: farmers and ranchers need to use all their assets, with water as key, AND…

• Re-Think at the landscape scale – diversify, get off the treadmill, and “close the loops” of nutrient flows… get past failing alone.

• Cities and water managers can be vital partners – Where states don’t act or are self-crippled – Citizens have far wider interests than water rates– Water supplier foresight! They plan far ahead– And cities have cheaper long-term capital

• WHY is food supply and source so fragile?

This is the year after the 2002 DroughtWe used this data set for analysis because it is public information not used for taxation

Note: areas north of the Arkansas River are not irrigated by the Bessemer

BRASS TACKS! HOW ABOUT A BIGGER MENU FOR THEBESSEMER DITCH?

Here’s one view of the irrigation in usein 2003… from CDSS

Note: areas north of the Arkansas River are not irrigated by the Bessemer

Nobody in the driver’s seat… this is “development” of some of the best farm land in the US

http://www.colorado.edu/ibs/eb/wiener/illustrations/BessemerArkansasIllustrations/BessemerBlendeFormerFarmlandDSC_0569_1811.JPG

County Farm Road, over in Blende area east side… losing ground…

http://www.colorado.edu/ibs/eb/wiener/illustrations/BessemerArkansasIllustrations/BessemerBlendeAlfalfaHerbicideVsNeighborsDSC_0598_1834.JPG.JPG

Anti-Sprawl? “Smart growth”

Example: 100 acres residential,700-900 units; 90 A open spacesAnd parking , 40 acres commercial… Stables facilities: 40 acres, total est. water use for all <1000 AF; currentlyIn corn, about 575 AF, so adding 425 AF, different seasonality…

Why “smart growth”?• $$$$ to enable change, from sales, new money• END Perforation of the farming land• Benefits and $ spread across ditch• Facilities – retirement, daycare, clinic?• Facilities – more local business, food hub…• Facilities – lower cost, high efficiency housing• Reduce conflicts with farming vs houses, septics

vs wells…

Recreational Trails – GET $$ FOR OPEN SPACE VALUES

Everyone hates trails, at first, but they sure seem to sell… Using real management makes a huge difference for who deals with the hassles !

The whole of the green areas here: OUTSIDE the ditch is 6816 A INSIDE THE DITCH IS 3179 A (but very few fields given up!) -- ENOUGH TO BE AN HCP? AVOID ANY ESA PROBLEMS, AVOID CLEAN WATER ACT MESS with good filtration…AND SALEABLE WETLANDS MITIGATION?

End-run water quality, TMDLs… with an asset that helps!

Convert to wetlands, extending what is there?Would take water for that purpose, but seasonalitymight be different from most crops

http://www.colorado.edu/ibs/eb/wiener/illustrations/BessemerArkansasIllustrations/ExistingWetland6MileCreekDSC_0469_3408.JPG.JPG

Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP 21.org) : Irrigation on the Bessemer Ditch: “What if…” ½ the Alfalfa were converted to winter canola?

Canola for (1/2) of Alfalfa

Halved the Alfalfa area, and substituted for Canola

THE TIMING OF WATER APPLICATION HAS ECONOMIC VALUES AS WELL AS THE VOLUME –This provides a lot of early-season water that might be valuable for municipal supply as well as for other higher-value crops… Lots to explore!

Canola (just read “Price-stabilized biodiesel fuel and high-protein feed) for Corn

Halved the Alfalfa area, and substituted for Canola

Putting in winter canola instead of the corn (4130 A) makes water available early and later in the season… this may be what the municipality needs.

http://www.colorado.edu/ibs/eb/wiener/illustrations/BessemerArkansasIllustrations/EarlyLeavesOldTreesBessemer13Apr11.jpg.JPG

What’s in your dreams?

http://www.colorado.edu/ibs/eb/wiener/illustrations/BessemerArkansasIllustrations/SunflowerCloudsBessemerDSC_1469_2713.JPG