thayer vietnam political developments in 2009
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Political Legitimacy of the OnePolitical Legitimacy of the One--PartyParty
State: Challenges and ResponsesState: Challenges and Responses
Carlyle A. ThayerCarlyle A. Thayer
Presentation to Vietnam Update 2009Presentation to Vietnam Update 2009
Canberra, November 19Canberra, November 19--20,200920,2009
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lin f Pr n i nlin f Pr n i n
Political Legitimacy
Political Legitimacy
Bauxite Mining Controversy
Bauxite Mining Controversy
Catholic land issues
Catholic land issues
Crackdown on PoliticalDissent
Crackdown on PoliticalDissent
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P li i l L i imP li i l L i im
Normative status conferred on political
leaders, governing institutions, anddecisions by those who are governed
Embodies notions of moral authoritySources:
Charismatic
Traditional
Rational-le al and erformance
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1. Bauxite Minin Controvers1. Bauxite Minin Controvers
10th Party
Congress Framework
CHALCO
CHALCO Politburo
approval
5-year Socio-
5-year Socio-
November2006
No. 167
Prime MinistersPrime Ministers
conom c anconom c an,
1, 2007,
1, 2007
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Location of bauxite
mine sites: DakNong and Lam
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Bauxite Minin Time LineBauxite Minin Time Line
Prime
Politburo
Petition of135
intellectuals
Ministerorders
review 30th
HanoiSeminar onbauxite and
rev ewsbauxiteissue 16th
April
vNationalAssembly17th April
V NguynGip openletter 5th
2nd openletter byGip 9th
April
anuary
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Bauxite Minin ControversBauxite Minin Controvers
V Nguyn Gip(May 7)
National Assembly (May 27)
Deputy Nguyn MinhThuyt, Son La province,
I hope you pay attention to bauxite
mining in the Central Highlands
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AntiAnti--Bauxite CoalitionBauxite Coalition
EnvironmentalistsEnvironmentalists Retired stateofficialsRetired stateofficials Social scientistsSocial scientists
Retired militarRetired militar Other academicsOther academicsc en s sc en s s
officers
officers
& intellectuals
& intellectuals
EconomistsEconomistsGeneral Vo
Nguyen GiapGeneral Vo
Nguyen GiapSome NADeputiesSome NADeputies
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Other AntiOther Anti--Bauxite O onentsBauxite O onents
Lawsuit in
Catholic priests-
Pastoral Letter byCardinal PhamMinh Man,Archbishop of
Hanoi PeoplesCourt andPeoples
Supreme Court,June 11, July 3
Thich QuangDo, UBCV,opposes
petition, April,
bauxite mining,May 31
Facebookand blogsites raise
auxitemining,March 29
China issues2009
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R nR n
nv ronmenta concerns an mpact onethnic minorities to be taken into account
National Assembly limited to questions
Chinese company fined
Bauxite mining to proceed
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2. Catholic Land Issues2. Catholic Land Issues
u y nc en a am
Ta Church, Quang Binhprovince - 11 arrested
ege po ce ruta ty
Gangs assault Catholics
rc estrate campa gn ystate media
26 July & 2 August
at o cs stage massprotests in 3 provinces
8 August 178 parishes inVinh diocese hold protests
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Tam Ta ProtestsTam Ta Protests
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Tam Ta ProtestsTam Ta Protests
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Tam Ta ProtestsTam Ta Protests
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Catholic Bishops call for dialogue with Government
.
committed to working for good of country.
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3. Crackdown on Dissent3. Crackdown on Dissent
9th Plenum Central Committee of the Vietnam
-
Difficulties: acts of sabotage by hostile forces
T Huy Ra appointed to Politburo. Secretary of the VCP Central Committee and head
of Commission on Information and Education(Popularization and Education, Propaganda ad
.
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TrTrnn HuHu nhnh DuDu ThThcc
Connection Internet Avid blogger
Plotted to set up
political party to replace
Charged with spreadingro a anda a ainst the
stateFrench trained information
technology specialist arrested
ay
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L CnL Cn nhnh In contact with Viet Tan
and Vietnam Democratic
Party
Avid blogger
Japanese ODA and award
of bauxite contract
Raised questionsmer can ra ne awyerarrested June 13
China
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TrTrn Khn Khi Thanh Thi Thanh Th
Novelist, poet, essayistwho wrote on Internet,edited To Quoc
2006 subject toarassmen an pu c
denunciation
9th October
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Pro-Democracy
Banners
Hai Phong 16 Aug 08 (above) and Hai
Hanoi 28 Jul 08
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Nguyn Tin Trung
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,,and Vand V HngHng
Tried and convicted September 2009
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Blo ers & Journalists Tar etedBlo ers & Journalists Tar eted Huy c, blogged under name Osin, fired
from Si Gn Ti p Th newspaper
Bi Thanh Hiu blo ed as N i Bun Gi(Wind Trader) arrested in August
,
partition, critical of Chinese territorial claims
Nguy n Ngc Nh Qunh, blogged undername M Nm (Mother Mushroom)
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Chinese Unilateral Fishing Ban
Ma 16-Au ust 1 2009
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General Directorate IIGeneral Directorate II
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Political Im licationsPolitical Im licationsAnti-Anti-
bauxitecoalitionbauxitecoalitioneo ogy
& Securityeo ogy
& Securitynt -
Chinesent -
Chinese
MinisterMinister
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Towards the 11Towards the 11
thth
Con ress Januar 2011Con ress Januar 2011
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In r r in P li iIn r r in P li i
Long Le three distinct groups
StratFor factional in-fighting
Alex Vuving modernisers v- anti-imperialists
Ed Malesky winning coalitions must be fashioned
by a national party congress; patronage rules!
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P rf rmP rf rm
Party-StateLegitimacy
BauxiteMiningI
Anti-Chinese
nationalism
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ConclusionConclusion
bauxite
miningissue
bauxite
miningissue
TheChinesequestion
TheChinesequestion
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Political Legitimacy of the OnePolitical Legitimacy of the One--PartyParty
State: Challenges and ResponsesState: Challenges and Responses
Carlyle A. ThayerCarlyle A. Thayer
Presentation to Vietnam Update 2009Presentation to Vietnam Update 2009
Canberra, November 19Canberra, November 19--20,200920,2009