The Age of Vehicle Automation:

Opportunities for Transportation Providers

BusCon 2017Indianapolis, IndianaSeptember 12, 2017

About WSP (formerly WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff)

— Global professional services firm with over 35,000 employees

— Portfolio in Transportation, Buildings, Power/Energy and Environmental sectors

— Over ten years of active practice in connected/ automated vehicle market

McityAnn Arbor, Michigan(Source: University of Michigan)

The Race to Driverless

Source: Google

The Race to Driverless

Traffic Safety

What if cars (and trucks, and buses…) no longer crashed?

AV

ON

LYChanges in Roadway Capacity

Under low-volume conditions, vehicles travel at high speeds with sufficient spacing

As volume increases, speed decreases as vehicle headways decrease

If AVs could operate at high speed with low headways, huge potential capacity increases

IS THIS OUR FUTURE?

Changes in Demand & Opportunity

Will new segments of the population become “drivers?”

Changes in Car Ownership Model

What if this…

…increasingly became this

Potential to Change the Car Ownership Paradigm

11

Coupling of AV and Electrification

Ford plans to have a “Level 4 vehicle in 2021, no gas pedal, no steering wheel…”

- Former Ford Motor Company CEO Mark Fields

“We believe we have the chance to make level three, level four and level five doable [in 2021]”

- BMW“Bosch said it saw level three vehicles being released…at the end of the decade, and level four driving not before 2025”

- Reuters

Levels of Automation

Is this a connected car?

Source: Google

AV≠CV+1

What is connected?

Cooperative communications systemsLinking vehicles together, to the roadside, and to the “cloud” Interoperable systems that work across all equipment and

manufacturers

CV and AV on a collision course

— AV “sees” with sensors and must interpret environment

— Sensors detect green indication, computer knows green means GO

— No context beyond what human driver can see

Role of CV in the AV Space

— In a CV environment, the other vehicles and the traffic signal are “talking” to the AV:— Phase state— Time to phase

change— Real-time

optimal progression speed

— Real-time route guidance based on signal delay

— Identification of hazards out of the view of sensor systems

Role of CV in the AV Space

What is happening in reality today?

Connected Vehicle Pilot Deployments

Four major Federal connected vehicle pilot programs underway: Ann Arbor Connected Vehicle

Test Environment (AACVTE) Tampa (THEA) Pilot Wyoming/ICF Pilot New York City Pilot

Many other smaller Federal, State and Local deployments

• Extensive connected traffic signal system to support enhanced bus rapid transit

• Electrified Automated Vehicle (EAV) to serve as circulator for Easton commercial district

• Transit kiosks to link community to technology and on-demand services

Smart Columbus Initiative

Uber Driverless Testing, Pittsburgh

— Pilot of driverless vehicles with actual customers

— Back-up driver and researcher in vehicle at all times

Automated Shuttles

Source: University of Michigan

Federally Designated AV Proving Grounds

• Pittsburgh/PTI

• Texas AV Proving Ground Partnership

• U.S. Army Aberdeen Test Center

• American Center for Mobility

• GoMentum Station

• SANDAG

• Iowa City ADG

• U. of Wisconsin

• Central Florida AV Partners

• North Carolina Turnpike

Truck Platooning

Source: Peloton

Should we believe the

hype?

AUTOMATED TAXIS SAID TO PROVIDE

AFFORDABLE TRANSPORT FOR ALL

EXTRA! EXTRA!DRIVERLESS CARS SIGNAL THE DEATH

OF PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION

AUTONOMOUS CARS DECLARED

SOLUTION TO ALL MOBILITY PROBLEMS

SOS

hiny

bject

yndrome

It’s not just about the technology…

Auto Industry Disruption?

Acceptance of “Computer Driver”?

Revenue Impacts?

Federal and State Regulation?

Legal Liability?

Initial AV Cost?Insurance Industry

Disruption?

Public Acceptance

40,0002016 Traffic Fatalities

14%Increase from 2014

If C/AV technology reduced that to 35,000 fatalities in the future…

5,000Lives Saved?

OR

35,000Lives Taken by Flawed

Computers?

Mobility as a Service Paradigm

Enabled Thru Automation

Distributed SharedMobility Model

Enabled Thru Automation

Distributed SharedMobility Model

Efficiency is most

unresolved

Mobility as a Service Paradigm

34

Tremendous efficiency opportunities for freeways

35

…but this is MUCH harder

Still living in a 9-5 society

Travel Demand

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Vehicle Miles Traveled(Millions)

VMT Growth Rate:

1.6%Population Growth Rate:

0.8%

AV Changes in Vehicle-Miles Traveled (VMT)

When driving time is “regained”, how far might you ride in your car to work?

= AVX

Physical Street Space

=

— 49 Stories— 905,000 Square Feet— As many as 5,000 daily

occupants

Salesforce Tower,Indianapolis

What happens at 5:00pm when 5,000 people catch their driverless taxi?

43

Source: The Daily Beast

How does new mobility protect options for the elderly, disabled and economically disadvantaged?

Do not oversimplify

the view of the future

Technology + New Mobility Trends =

Opportunities for all Shared Transportation Providers

Public/Campus Transportation

— New opportunities with on-demand services

— Right-sizing service with more flexible service offerings

— Public-Private Partnerships (P3) to handle high cost/ low demand trips (late night, low density, etc.)

Elderly Mobility and Paratransit— On-demand

driverless transportation for those physically able

— Freeing up drivers to serve in a support capacity to passengers for assisted transportation

48

Downtown Parking Transition— Parking for shared

fleets, electrification— Shuttling/transit to

remote staging?— Increased demand

for high-capacity service with more development?

49

Airport Airside/ Landside Transportation

— Automation of inter-terminal shuttles

— Shuttling to remote staging for driverless vehicle services?

What can you do to prepare?

— Consider how your business model and customer needs may change

— Look for opportunities to trial new technology

— Embrace shift towards electrification

— Educate both employees and customers

Thank You

Scott Shogan, P.E., PTOEConnected/Automated Vehicle Market Leader, US Advisory Services

Scott.Shogan@wsp.com 313.963.2808

Twitter: @ScottEShogan

wsp.com