the ageing population will change demand for housing. in ... · in buying a retirement property –...

The ageing population will change

demand for housing. In particular,

it is likely that more adaptable and

specialised housing will be needed.

Policy Implication 4.1

Housing and Neighbourhoods

The proportion of households where

the oldest person is 85 or over will grow

faster than for any other age group.

Under 25

25-34 45-54 55-64 65-7435-44 75-84 85+

2

0

1

3

5

4

2012 2037

Num

ber

of h

ouse

hold

s (m

illio

ns)

Age group (years)

Year:

Head of household in England by age, estimations for 2012 and projections for 2037

Source: DCLG (2012) 2012-based household projections

4.1a


Projected rise of people seeking housing with support services

70,000 300,000

2011 2019

The number of people seeking housing

with support services is projected to

rise.

Source: New Policy Institute (2012) Market Assessment of Housing Options for Older People | National Housing Federation (2011) Breaking the mould: Re-visioning older people’s housing

One study predicted a 70% increase in demand for specialist housing by 2033

Projected rise of people seeking housing with support servicesProjected rise of people seeking housing with support services

70,000 300,000

2011 2019

4.1b


2008

< 25

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65+

2033

< 25

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65+

By 2033, total households are

projected to increase by 27%. In that

time, one-person households are

projected to increase by 54%, with half

of the growth in the over 65 group.

The vast majority of older people live as married couples. However, over the

past decade the number of one-person households has increased from 2.6 to

2.9 million and will increase by 22% to 2031. This may have implications for

loneliness and the provision of informal care.

Source: Hoff, A. (2015) Foresight evidence review | Keating, N. et al (2015) Foresight evidence review

Projections of one-person households in England by age of head of household.

4.1c


The proportion of 65+ year olds living

in one person housholds is higher in

London than in many areas of Southern

England.

Source: Stockton, J. and Duke-Williams, O. (2016) Analysis of 2011 census data

24.7% - 29.5%

29.6% - 32.2%

32.3% - 45.3%

By 2031 the number of one person

households are projected to increase

by 60%.

Proportion of population aged 65 and over in UK local authorities in 2011 living in a one person household

4.1d


What people want from housing.

Bathrooms and toilets should

be capable of being converted to

disabled standards and large

enough to allow for carers

to provide assistance

There should be level

access and flush thresholds

at the entrance level.

Possible to accommodate living and

bedroom space at the entrance level.

There should be enough living space

for people to maintain their lifestyle,

social contacts and hobbies.

There should be at least two

bedrooms, although many

people prefer three, which allows

for couples to sleep in separate

rooms with a spare bedroom.

There should be sufficient

storage space.

A pleasant accessible outside

space should be available.

The home should be energy

efficient, easily heated, well

ventilated, well lit and

easily manageable.

There should be good

access to local facilities.

Source: Torrington, J. (2015) Foresight evidence review

The older population is diverse but consensus around:

4.1e


Older households are more likely to

have two or more spare rooms.

Source: ONS (2014) Overcrowding and Under-occupation in England and Wales

8.1 million houses in the UK in 2011

had at least two spare rooms and over

80% of owner-occupied housing has

at least one spare room (12.4 million

households), compared with 39%

socially rented housing (1.6 million)

and 49% privately rented housing

(2.1 million). However 1.1 million

households were over-crowded.

One below At standard One above Two above

Owner occupiers

0

20

40

60

80

Older households

Owner-occupier occupancy rates (%) with number of spare rooms relative to standard, as defined in Housing Act 2003)

4.1e

Building suitable new homes and

supporting the adaptation of the

existing housing stock will be

critical as the population ages. It

is also important that older people

can move to a more appropriately-

sized home with ease.



Of the remaining 95%...

...to provide reasonable access to disabled people

More than half require

structural or major

structural alterations

A quarter of these

homes are not

adaptable

Only 12% need

minor work

5%

In 2012 5% of homes had the required

features needed for disabled access.


4.2a


Currently, older people are more

satisfied with their current housing

than most – 97% among those aged 75

and over.

Source: DCLG analysis of 2012 English Housing Survey data

16-24 25-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+% ‘s

atis

fied

’ or

‘ver

y sa

tisf

ied’

wit

h cu

rren

t hou

sing

Age Group

0

60

80

20

40

100

97%

Proportion of individuals who are satisfied or very satisfied with their current housing, by age group, 2012.

4.2b


A large group of people are looking

to release equity and move to smaller

homes, but so far there has been little

progress in increasing housing options

for older people.

Sources: McKnight, A. (2015) Foresight evidence review. | Demos (2013) Top of the ladder. | New Policy Institute (2012) Market assessment of housing options for older people.

Many people would like to move into a house or flat with two

bedrooms, but most specialist housing only has one bedroom.

of people over 60 were

interested in moving.

of all owner-occupiers aged

55 and over who have moved do

so to properties with at least three

bedrooms.

of over 60s would be interested

in buying a retirement property –

equating to 3.5 million

people nationally.

of those interested in moving wanted

to downsize by at least one bedroom,

rising to 76% among older people

currently occupying three-, four-

and five-bedroom homes

25%

57%

58%

50%

4.2c


There is a financial barrier to moving to

a smaller house.

The ability to move to a smaller

house is at least partly dependent

on the size and value of the house.

Smaller houses are frequently in

more expensive areas so rightsizing

is rarely cost-effective unless the

house being sold is particularly

expensive or large. This can impact

poorer peoples’ ability to move into

more appropriate accommodation.

Source: McKnight, A. (2015) Foresight evidence review

4.2d


People who move away from homes

where they have lived for many years

experience a loss of autonomy and

control.


4.2e


For house movers, health and family

become more important with age, and

financial reasons are least important.

Source: DCLG SAT analysis of ELSA data

Over 50s Over 65s Over 75s Over 85s

40

30

20

10

0

Moved to a more suitable

home

Healthreasons

Be nearerfamily

Moved to a better area

Financialreasons

Reason for moving

% c

itin

g as

a re

ason

for

mov

ing

Reasons cited for moving, by age

4.2f


Overall housing build rates are, and

have been falling for several decades.

Source: DCLG (2015) Live tables on house building

450,000

400,000

350,000

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0

Local Authorities Housing Associations Private Enterprise

194

6

195

0

195

4

195

8

196

2

196

6

1970

1974

1978

198

2

198

6

199

0

199

4

199

8

20

02

20

06

20

10

Number of houses built per year by developer

4.2g


Source: Elderly Accommodation Council Analysis of DCLG data

Rates of building specialised housing

have declined, leading to fewer

opportunities for older people to

choose this.

30

24

18

12

6

20152009200319971991198519791973196719611955

For saleFor rent

Num

ber

of h

omes

bui

lt (

thou

sand

s)

Year

Number of specialised homes built, 1981–2011

4.2h


Although 93% of older people live in

mainstream housing, most guidance

for housing design is concerned with

specialist housing.

What changes and adaptations

will be necessary to mainstream

housing?


4.2i


170k

289k

2001

2011

The number of ‘concealed families’

increased in the early 21st Century,

potentially suggesting an increase in

intergenerational living.

Concealed families include young adults living with a partner and/or children

in the same household as their parents, older couples living with an adult child

and their family, or unrelated families sharing a household.

Source: ONS (2014) What does the 2011 Census tell us about concealed families living in multi-family households in England and Wales?

Number of concealed families

4.2j


Co-residence may be involuntary and

can cause strain or potential conflict.

Source: Keating, N. et al (2015) Foresight evidence review

Housing is generally not designed

for multigenerational living

4.2k


Intergenerational living or proximity of

different generations to each other is far

more common in European countries

with strongly family-oriented cultures.

48-64%

33-47%

16-32%

3-15%

No data

Percentage of respondents

Percentage of respondents aged 55 or older living with at least one of their children in the household, per Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) region, 2004/05

Source: Jappens, M. and Van Bavel, J. (2012) Regional family norms and child care by grandparents in Europe

4.2l

Housing should be considered

in the context of the wider

neighbourhood. Interventions

that improve people’s homes are

less likely to be effective without

similar improvements in the

neighbourhood.

Accessibility and social cohesion are two of the most significant factors that affect how older people experience their neighbourhood.



Neighbourhood environments

contribute to good health by providing

opportunities for exercise.

Neighbourhoods contribute to wellbeing

and quality of life by providing opportunities

for contact with nature and social

interaction. Access is a key component of

this, including availability of seating and

toilets, and density of bus stops.

Source: Torrington, J. (2015) Foresight evidence review | Ormerod, M., Newton, R. and Phillips, J. (2015) Foresight evidence review

4.3a


Neighbourhoods which enable people

to access health and social care and

local services demonstrate better

health outcomes and fewer emergency

hospital admissions.

Neighbourhood environments that make

outdoor activity easy or enjoyable are good for

quality of life and can have knock-on positive

health effects, for example, good quality and

clutter-free pavements.

Source: Torrington, J. (2015) Foresight evidence review | Ormerod, M., Newton, R. and Phillips, J. (2015) Foresight evidence review

4.3b

Home have great potential as

places of healthcare. This could

reduce demand on health and care

services, but will require homes

that support new technologies and

are safe, accessible and adaptable.



Women aged over 65 are more likely

to be living alone, due to earlier

widowhood, although the decreasing

gap in life expectancy between genders

is changing this.

Source: Kishita, N., Fisher, P. and Laidlaw, K. (2015) Foresight evidence review

4.4a

Housing and NeighbourhoodsHousing

Elderly people are more likely to live in

homes categorised as non-decent, in

need of serious repair, or excessively

cold.

Source: English Housing Survey (2014) Table DA3203: Decent Homes – households

5th quintile

25

20

15

10

5

0Non-decent Repair Modern facilities

and servicesThermalcomfort

25

20

15

10

5

0Non-decent Repair Modern facilities

and servicesThermalcomfort

Under 60 years

60 years or more

75 years or more

1st quintile (lowest) 2nd quintile 3rd quintile 4th quintile

Incidence of failing the decent homes criteria

4.4b


Housing in poor repair; including

damp, lack of insulation, poor heating,

unsafe stairs and low levels of daylight,

is associated with poor health and has

knock-on healthcare costs.

Source: Building Research Establishment (2011) The cost of poor housing to the NHS

Inadequate housing leads to 40,000 excessive winter deaths and causes

particular problems for those with sight or hearing disabilities.

Overweight & Obesity£5.1-5.2 billion

Housing£1.4-2.5 billion

Smoking£2.3-3.3 billion

Physical Inactivity£0.9-£1.0 billion

Alcohol intake£3.2 billion

Comparison with other common health hazards (costs to the NHS)

4.4c


Smart homes have the potential to

become places of healthcare, enabling

remote healthcare and freeing up

hospital bedspaces, or allowing more

flexible and conducive working.

Source: Damodaran, L., and Olphert, W., (2015) Foresight evidence review

4.4d


If home-based care is going to

be successful, houses need to be

appropriate for this.

Source: Mountain, G., Gomersall, T. and Taylor, J. (2015) Foresight evidence review

Homes will need to adapt to

accommodate new technologies

and have sufficient space for care

provision. For example, telecare

applications will need sufficiently

high speed Internet to work.

4.4e

Working from home is likely to

become increasingly common

in the future, particularly among

older people.

As with care in the home, this can be supported by suitable design and enabling access to necessary technologies, such as high-speed broadband.



Currently, working from home is more

prevalent among individuals who are

older.

Enabling better home working conditions for older workers will help to enable

longer working lives.

Source: ONS (2014) Characteristics of Home Workers, 2014

Only around 1 in 20 of those aged 16-24 use their home for work

Over a third of workers aged 65 and over use their home for work

Age 16-24 Age 25-49 Age 50-64 Age 65+

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

18.3%

38.3%

12.3%

5.1%

Percentage of each age group that use their home for work

4.5a


Teleworking services and smart

workplaces can maintain and prolong

participation in the labour force, as

well as increasing productivity and

reducing the mental/physical decline

of all workers.

Source: Damodaran, L., and Olphert, W., (2015) Foresight evidence review

4.5b

Many of today’s older people own

their home, giving them some

financial security and allowing

them to leave an inheritance.

Increasing property prices

and decreasing levels of home

ownership in younger generations

could affect this, turning homes

from financial assets into financial

burdens.



Older people are currently more likely

to own their home outright. Will high

rates of home ownership be maintained

in future?

Num

ber

of p

eopl

e (m

illio

ns)

0

1

2

3

4

5

16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

Age group

All private rentersAll social renters

Tenure type:

Buying with mortgageOwn outright

Number of household reference people by tenure and age group in England, 2013/14

Source: DCLG (2015) Tenure trends and cross tenure analysis

4.6a


There is lower home ownership

amongst younger cohorts than recent

trends, and it is not currently on course

to catch up.

This is due to high house prices, increasing rental costs and higher income

variance. Unless this is addressed, homes will be more of a financial burden

than asset as more people are left paying rent or mortgages in later life, and

fewer people have housing equity. The 1975 cohort, set to retire in 2040, also

have lower retirement savings than previous generations.

Source: IFS (2014) Living standards, poverty and inequality in the UK: 2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Hom

e ow

ners

hip

rate

Age

Retire in 2051-2055 | Born 1983-87

Retire in 2045-2050 | Born 1978-82

Retire in 2040-2044 | Born 1973-77Retire in 2035-2039 | Born 1968-72

Retire in 2030-2034 | Born 1963-67

Retire in 2023-2029 | Born 1958-62Retire in 2018-2023 | Born 1953-57

Retire in 2013-2017 | Born 1948-52

Home ownership rates by birth year and age

4.6b


Mortgagepayers

Privaterenters

31%

14%

Low home ownership rates may lead to

a higher share of future cohorts paying

rent during retirement.

This could lead to greater need for means-tested support

during retirement in order to meet housing costs.

Source: IFS (2014) Living standards, poverty and inequality in the UK: 2014

Private renters spend

twice as much of a

share of their income

as mortgage payers

do on housing.

This reduces the amount they are able to save while

working, and increases housing costs in retirement.

4.6c


Rates of home ownership among 65+

vary between different regions.

Source: DCLG analysis of census data

OwnerOccupied

PrivateRented

Social Rented andLocal Authority Housing

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Hou

ses

wit

h pe

ople

ove

r 65

(hu

ndre

ds o

f tho

usan

ds)

English Region

North East

Yorkshire

& The H

umber

North W

est

East M

idlands

West

Midlands

South W

est

East England

South East

London

Houses with older people (over 65) by English Region and tenure

4.6d

Housing plays an important role

in transferring wealth from one

generation to the next. Extending

life expectancy and falling home

ownership rates are likely to reduce

or negate the value of future

inheritances, as housing wealth

increasingly funds longer periods in

retirement and ill-health.



However, increased life expectancy may reduce inheritances, if care costs are high and paid for using housing equity

Inheritance from an older family

member may be used to increase home

ownership rates, reducing required

retirement income, and offset some of

the shortfall in retirement savings in

younger cohorts.

Source: McKnight, A., (2015). Foresight evidence review.

4.7a


Home ownership rates in some parts of

the North are lower than in the South,

leading to geographic disparities in the

policy challenge.

24.7 - 29.5%

29.6 - 32.2%

32.3 - 45.3%

Percentage owning their own home

Proportion of people aged 65+ owning their home by local authority, 2011

Source: Stockton, J. and Duke-Williams, O. (2016) Analysis of 2011 census data

4.7b

the ageing population will change demand for housing. in ... · in buying a retirement property –...

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