the airpact-3 photochemical air quality forecast system: evaluation and enhancements jack chen,...
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The AIRPACT-3 Photochemical Air Quality Forecast System: Evaluation and Enhancements
Jack Chen, Farren Thorpe, Jeremy Avis, Matt Porter,
Joseph Vaughan, and Brian LambLaboratory for Atmospheric Research
Washington State University
Tomorrow’s Air Quality: AIRPACT-3 Daily Forecast System
MM5(3.7.3) numerical mesoscale meteorological modelSMOKE(2.1): Sparse Matrix Operating Kernal for Emissions processing.CMAQ (4.6): Community Multi-scale Air Quality model: SAPRC-99 O3 & toxics chemistry
Aerosol (ver.4) in Aitken, accumulation, & coarse modes
Deposition of N, S, O3, & Hg species
12 km x 12 km grid cells, 21 layers
Forecast to 64 hours daily
PM species NitratesSulfatesOrganic aerosolsWind-Blown Dust (soon)PM2.5 total mass
Daisy-chain Initial Conditions
Dynamic Boundary Conditions: spatial & temporal variations from MOZART monthly diurnal average profiles
2005 anthropogenic emissions (SMOKE)
Wild and Prescribed Fire Emissions (from BlueSky system)
Gridded Emissions
Updated Biogenic Emission Model (BEIS3)
WSU Dairy NH3 Emissions Module
AIRPACT-3 Dynamic Emissions & IC/BC
MM5/MCIP Meteorology from UW Weather Forecast System
CMAQ
AIRPACT3, July, 2006 Ozone and Biogenic SOA Formation
http://www.airpact-3.wsu.edu
Retrospective long term evaluationAug – Nov, 2004 (coincident with Columbia Gorge Visibility Monitoring program)
• 8 hr daily maximum O3
•24 hr daily maximum PM2.5
•Speciated PM2.5
MM5 forecast performance resultsAugust 2004 Surface
Temp. (oC)Wind Direction (deg)
Wind Speed (m/s)
Precip (mm)
RH (%)
Mean error -0.3 5 1.6 0.0 4
Mean abs. error 2.4 64 2.3 1.7 13
N 32569 24892 25476 12378 23466
Nov. 2004 Surface Temp. (oC)
Wind Direction (deg)
Wind Speed (m/s)
Precip (mm)
RH (%)
Mean error 0.3 8 1.8 -0.4 3
Mean abs. error 2.2 70 2.4 2.1 14
N 32956 24416 24978 10887 22931
GFS initialization, CCM2 radiation scheme, Reisner-2 moisture microphysics parameterization, Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization and the MRF/Hong-Pan planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme
Daily maximum 8 hr ozone resultsP/O vs Observed
Timing errors (running 8 hr means)
0.1
2
4
6
1
2
4
6
10
Mo
de
led
/ M
ea
su
red
Ra
tio
806040200Measured (ppbv)
30
25
20
15
10
5
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Co
un
t (%
)
121086420Hour Difference Between Observed and Measured O3 Peak Time
Ranked daily maximum 8 hr ozone for selected sites (Aug/Sept, 2004)
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Mo
de
led
O3
(pp
bv)
90807060504030Observed O3 (ppbv)
NorthBend, WA Enumclaw, WA Talent, OR Carus, OR WhitneyEle, ID
8
6
4
2
0
Mo
de
led
(µ
g/m
3)
86420
Measured (µg/m3)
EPA_AQS IMPROVE SWCAA
PEC
10
8
6
4
2
0M
od
ele
d (
µg
/m3 )
1086420
Measured (µg/m3)
EPA_AQS SWCAA
PNO3
Ranked speciated PM2.5 observations and predictions
50
40
30
20
10
0
Mo
de
led
(µ
g/m
3)
50403020100
Measured (µg/m3)
EPA_AQS IMPROVE SWCAA
POC
5
4
3
2
1
0
Mo
de
led
(µ
g/m
3 )
543210
Measured (µg/m3)
EPA_AQS SWCAA
PNH420
15
10
5
0
Mo
de
led
(µ
g/m
3 )
20151050
Measured (µg/m3)
EPA_AQS SWCAA
PSO4
Enhancements to Airpact-3Wildfire emissions exported to Airpact-3 from the Forest Service BlueSky System
MODIS Image for Sept 5 2006
BlueSky System at Forest Service
Observed Fire Events
AIRPACT retrieves: fire
location, fire size, heat flux, emissions
Predicted 24-hr PM2.5 for Aug. 2006
WSU Pullman
MODIS Image for Sept 5 2006
BlueSky System at Forest Service
Observed Fire Events
AIRPACT retrieves: fire
location, fire size, heat flux, emissions
Predicted 24-hr PM2.5 for Aug. 2006Predicted 24-hr PM2.5 for Aug. 2006
WSU Pullman
WSU Pullman
BlueSky fire locations & size
SMOKE emissions processing for CMAQ
Predicted PM2.5 from fires
O3 with NOx from fires
O3 without NOx from fires
O3 difference
Wildfire Contributions to Regional Ozone
Daily max O3 Sept 2 – 6, 2006
Further developments
Nested domains (4 km grid cells)Enhanced automatic evaluationNASA products
Collaborators & Acknowledgements
Collaborating research groupsUSDA – Forest Service Don McKenzie & Sim LarkinUSDA – NRCS Susan O’Neill
Funding sourcesNW-Airquest ConsortiumNASA ROSES Decision Support System grant
Initial evaluation results
Ozone 8 hr daily maximaNMB = 6% and NME = 17%Peak values correctly estimated
PM2.5 24 hr daily maximaDaily FB range: -75% to +75%, mean FB = 3%Daily FE range: 3% to 79%, mean FE = 50%
Speciated PM2.5 Good match with NO3 observationsSplit decision for NH4: Gorge sites underestimatedSO4 underestimatedOC and EC overestimated at peak levels (associated with wildfires)
Enhancement of Airpact using satellite dataOMI-Aura Satellite Retrievals and AIRPACT-3 for NO2
U.S. retrieval AIRPACT-3
OMI (American) OMI (Dutch) AIRPACT
Urban NO2 along the I-5 corridor: OMI-AURA and Airpact
Bias and error maps for Aug-Sept daily maximum 8 hr ozone
Normalized mean bias
Normalized mean error
30
20
10
0
PM
2.5
(µg
/m3 )
8/7 8/15 8/23 8/31 9/8 9/16 9/24 10/2 10/1010/1810/26 11/3 11/1111/1911/27
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
R
100
50
0
-50
FE
/ F
B (
%)
Modeled Measured FB FE R
24 hr PM2.5 Performance Time Series