Daniel B. Gilbert CHIEF METEOROLOGIST

Weather Modification, Inc.

Fargo, North Dakota USA

Terry W. Krauss PROJECT DIRECTOR

Alberta Hail Suppression Project

Alberta Severe Weather Management Society

Alberta CANADA

Bruce A. Boe DIRECTOR OF METEOROLOGY

Weather Modification, Inc.

WMI Photograph by Andreas Bertoni

Weather Modification Annual Meeting Desert Research Institute Reno, Nevada 23-25 April 2014

AHSP Project Area

AHSP Project Area

AHSP Project Area

SEEDING BUFFER ZONE

PROTECTED AREA

Approximately 11,100 mi2

(28,800 km2)

Cities and towns, not agriculture

RADAR & OPS CENTER

Quick History

• Alberta Research Program 1956-1986

• 1991 Calgary storm

• The Alberta Severe Weather Management Society (ASWMS)

• Rebirth of AHSP in 1996

Hail frequency in Canada

Hail frequency in Canada

Population Density

2011 Census

Canadian Natural Disasters(IBC, PCS)

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

Year

Th

ou

san

ds o

f D

ollars

CA

D

Canada Disasters Alberta Storms

7 Sep 1991

Calgary Hailstorm

1996 Quebec

Flooding

1998 Quebec

Ice Storm

2005 Ontario

Wind/Rain storm

2011 Slave Lake

Alberta Fire

0.00E+00

5.00E+07

1.00E+08

1.50E+08

2.00E+08

2.50E+08

3.00E+08

3.50E+08

4.00E+08

4.50E+08

Do

llars

CA

D

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Year

AFSC Crop Hail Award

SilageSt HailCrop

Concepts

Seeding Concepts Illustration from Canadian Geographic, based

on WMO schematic, 1995

Targeting

• Potential hailers headed for or developing over urban areas are targeted.

• Simultaneous seeding at cloud top and at cloud base.

Propagation Vector

Cell Motion

Storm Motion

TARGET AREA

15

16

Operations Design

• Five Aircraft: three Beechcraft C90 King Airs,

two Cessna 340As.

• Two aircraft bases, one in the south, west of

Calgary, the other up north just SW of Red

Deer.

• Operations are all directed from central

operations area about halfway between Calgary

and Red Deer.

Cessna 340A • 310 HP per side

• 1,650 fpm climb rate

• 244 kts max speed

• 29.8 kft service ceiling

• 24-30 BIPs, 102 EJs

2 wingtip generators

Two Cessna 340A aircraft are employed in the AHSP. Hailstop 2 is based in Springbank, west of Calgary, and Hailstop 4 is based at the Red Deer Regional Airport, immediately SW of Red Deer.

King Air C90 • 550 HP per side

• 2,137 fpm climb rate

• 230 knots max cruise

• 30 kft service ceiling

• 48 BIPs and 306 EJs Three King Air C90 aircraft are deployed in the AHSP. Hailstop 1 and 5 are based in Springbank, west of Calgary, and Hailstop 3 is based at the Red Deer Regional Airport, immediately SW of Red Deer.

AHSP Infrastructure

The War Room

Shown here, the Operations Room contains, TITAN, CIDD, AirLink, VHF radio, radar log, etc.

The Key Personnel

• Alberta Severe Weather Manager Society

– Chairman: Todd Klapak

– Project Director: T.W. Krauss

• Weather Modification, Inc.

– On-Site Project Manager: J.M. Fischer

– Chief Met./Operations Director: D.Bz. Gilbert

Configuring TITAN parameters prior to the 2012 season. (Gilbert and Krauss, front to back.)

Recent Improvements

• Radar upgrade in 2011

• Krauss became ASWMS Project Director 2011

• Hailstop 5 added at Springbank in 2013

• Insurance industry CEU tours and lectures

• New paint! 2013

• Overhaul AZ/EL radar gear system 2014

• Computer models and forecasting

Recent Improvements - Radar • HiQ digital receiver

with Doppler

• New transmitter (modulator and power supply) now Pulse Systems solid state

• Latest TITAN version

• Ubuntu Operating System

CDC Strategy Description

-3 No Seed Clear skies, fair weather cumulus, or stratus (with no rain). No deep convection.

-2 No Seed Towering cumulus, altocumulus, alto-stratus, or nimbostratus producing rain for several hours or weak echoes (e.g. virga).

-1 No Seed Scattered convective rain showers but no threat of hail. No reports of lightning.

0 Patrol flights and potential seeding

Thunderstorms (at least one) but no hail. VIL < 20 kg/m2 within the project area or buffer zones on north, east, and south sides.

+1 Seed Thunderstorms with pea or shot sized hail (0.5 to 1.2 cm diameter). 20 kg/m2 < VIL < 30 kg/m2

+2 Seed Thunderstorms with grape sized hail (1.3 to 2.0 cm diameter). 30 kg/m2 < VIL < 70 kg/m2

+3 Seed Thunderstorms with walnut sized hail (2.1 to 3.2 cm diameter). 70 kg/m2 < VIL < 100 kg/m2

+4 Seed Thunderstorms with golf ball sized hail (3.3 to 5.2 cm diameter). VIL > 100 kg/m2

+5 Seed Thunderstorms with greater than golf ball sized hail (>5.2 cm diameter).

Recent Improvements - Forecasting

Forecast vs. Observed CDC Daily Values - 2013

Green - The forecast and observed CDCs were the same (perfect forecasts).

Yellow - The observed CDC was greater than those forecast (underforecasts).

Blue - The observed CDCs were less than those forecast (overforecasts).

Observed Convective Day Category (CDC)

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Days

-3 10 10

-2 2 1 1 1 1 6

Fore

cast

CD

C

-1 3 2 1 6

0 2 1 4 1 8

1 1 1 3 3 4 11 1 24

2 3 4 17 4 28

3 1 1 1 3 5 7 18

4 1 1 3 2 7

5 0 0

Days 17 7 6 12 9 34 10 10 2 107

Percent correct exact CDC category = 45/107 = 42% (38% in 2012)

Percent correct within one CDC category = 85/107 = 79% (76% in 2012)

F O R E C A S T I N G

POD, FAR, HSS, and CSI PROBABILITY OF DETECTION, FALSE ALARM RATIO, HEIDKE SKILL SCORE, AND CRITICAL SUCCESS INDEX

2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002

POD (Hailcast) .89 .75 .72 .77 .91 .80 .82 .69 .84 .91 .76 .81

POD (WMI) .97 .98 .85 .85 .83 .68 .76 .69 .61 .60 .86 .83

FAR (Hailcast) .15 .22 .21 .31 .29 .35 .30 .31 .45 .47 .56 .34

FAR (WMI) .18 .23 .13 .14 .13 .20 .11 .14 .18 .30 .16 .33

HSS (Hailcast) .66 .51 .49 .46 .44 .43 .46 .35 .31 .39 .33 .56

HSS (WMI) .67 .68 .65 .72 .63 .49 .66 .55 .42 .51 .63 .59

CSI (Hailcast) .77 .62 .64 .56 .45 .52 .50 .42 .40 .51 .39 .57

CSI (WMI) .80 .76 .75 .73 .56 .52 .62 .53 .42 .49 .59 .59

Operational Statistics

Season Se

ed

ed

Sto

rm

Day

s

Air

craf

t M

issi

on

s

Tota

l Flig

ht

Tim

e

(ho

urs

)

Sto

rms

See

de

d

AgI

Pe

r St

orm

(kg

)

Eje

ctab

le

Fla

res

BIP

Fla

res

See

din

g So

luti

on

(g

allo

ns)

Sea

son

Act

ivit

y R

an

k

Mean 31.2 101.2 209.0 91.9 2.24 4705 620 153.3

2013 26 103 229.6 70 3.33 6311 636 131.7 9

2012 37 143 300.1 116 2.70 7717 914 260.3 2

2011 48 158 383.0 134 3.00 10779 1020 350.2 1

2010 42 115 271.8 118 2.20 5837 851 227.5 5

2009 20 38 109.3 30 1.60 451 237 56.5 18

2008 26 112 194.7 56 2.20 1648 548 113.5 13

2007 19 76 115.3 41 2.40 1622 413 77 17

2006 28 92 190.2 65 3.30 4929 703 145.4 10

2005 27 80 157.9 70 2.30 3770 515 94.2 14

2004 29 105 227.5 90 3.00 6513 877 132.7 6

2003 26 92 163.6 79 2.20 4465 518 92.6 12

2002 27 92 157.4 54 2.30 3108 377 80.3 16

2001 36 109 208.3 98 2.00 5225 533 140.8 7

2000 33 130 265.2 136 2.50 9653 940 141.3 3

1999 39 118 251.3 162 1.30 4439 690 297.5 4

1998 31 96 189.9 153 0.70 2023 496 193.8 8

1997* 38 92 188.1 108 1.00 2376 356 144.3 11

1996* 29 71 159.1 75 2.20 3817 542 80.5 15 *The 1996 and 1997 seasons began on June 15, not June 1, which has been the norm ever since.

Past four seasons have all ranked in top 10 most active Two busiest seasons were 2011 and 2012 AgI per storm highest in 2013 likely due to addition of fifth aircraft

Storm Tracks 2013

12 August 2012 4 Seed Flights

12.8 hrs flight time 584 Ejectable flares 90 End-Burner flares

14.8 Gallons of Acetone 26.5 kg of seed agent

12 August 2012 “The Bad & Ugly”

South of Water Valley received a report of loonie sized hail. Hail was intermittent and heavy rain lasted about half an hour.

A closer look at 12 August 2012

Received multiple reports of 30min of twoonie to golf ball sized hail North of Cochrane,

From Twitter #ABStorm hail bigger than a golf ball. Picture had golf ball with hail for reference.

Multiple reports of golf ball and hen egg sized hail in NW Calgary, AB. Event ongoing.

Received at least 25 reports of golf ball or bigger sized hail in NW, NE and SE Calgary, AB. Some reports of broken windows in homes and hail accumulations on the level. Smaller hail (~nickel) accumulating inches deep in various regions of the city. Event ongoing.

Received multiple reports of accumulating nickel to quarter sized hail in the NW area of Calgary, AB.

Storm Track & Intensity

Max VIL Track

Reduced VIL After Seeding

Reduced VIL after seeding

time

Vil

fro

m m

axZ (

kg

/m

2)

6543210-1

200

150

100

50

0

Seeding

S2

S3

S4

N

S1

Scatterplot of Vil from maxZ (kg/m2) vs time

Storm enters Calgary

Before Seeding

Seeding

VIL of Seeded storm < Natural storm VIL

Vil from maxZ (kg/m2)

Pe

rce

nt

10010

99

95

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

5

1

Loc

0.158

4.625 0.4280 49 1.413 <0.005

Scale N AD P

4.947 0.1791 40 0.538

SeedT

B

S

Probability Plot of Vil from maxZ (kg/m2)Lognormal - 90% CI

Seeded

Not Seeded

Lethbridge

Med Hat

Brooks

Foremost

Taber

Cardston

Questions?

Photograph

by B. Waller,

20120731