The Angst of Anthropogenic Global Warming: Our Species' Existential

Risk

William P. Hall President Kororoit Institute Proponents and Supporters Assoc., Inc. - http://kororoit.org william-hall@bigpond.com http://www.orgs-evolution-knowledge.net

Existentialist Society, Tuesday 6 September 2016 Access my research papers from Google Citations

http://tinyurl.com/hlqntmp

2

PART 1 ― WE LIVE ON A FINITE PLANET

Last year’s Meetup on Human Origins, Cognitive Technologies, and Futures explored human evolution and technological growth

Will the exponential growth of human population, knowledge and technology end in a singularity, spike, or an inflected S-curve

3

The first option – infinite growth – is impossible The second option – unsustainable exponential

growth followed by a catastrophic climatic/ ecological collapse - is all too likely. This is the path we are on now. The tipping point is not far away if it is not already too late

The third option – a sustainable steady state - may still be possible if we act now

Survival will require deep cultural change from striving for continuous growth to striving for sustainability. This change can only be achieved by political action

Human populations, knowledge, and technology have been growing exponentially

World population when I was born in August 1939 ~2.3 bn World population now ~ 7.4 bn; ~ 3.2 X in my lifetime 4

History of technology and human population growth

° °

Human population growth has been fueled by the burning of fossil fuels

The burning of fossil fuels creates greenhouse gases – Per capita in 1939, ~ 26 x 109 joules x 2.3 x 109 = 59.8 x 1018 joules total – Per capita now, ~ 62 x 109 joules x 7.4 x 109 = 458.8 x 1018 joules total – World fossil fuel consumption today is ~7.67 times what it was when I was

born 5

The human footprint on planet Earth is a geological scale phenomenon

Light pollution shows where people are using energy, largely sourced from the burning of fossil fuels

6

Based on NOAA satellite observations in 2006

AIS Real-time Vessel Tracking: Density of commercial ships

Tracking 153,000 commercial vessels when this was snapped All converting petrochemicals into greenhouse gas, water vapor,

and soot 7

FlightRadar24: Commercial aviation flights in the air at any one time

About 9,700 passenger aircraft were in the air when this was snapped All converting petrochemicals into greenhouse gas, water vapor, and soot

along the length of each flight path 8

Global scale land clearing is a major geological process in the Amazon Basin

9

Road transport, chainsaws, bulldozers, and fire – all converting fossil fuel and biomass into greenhouse gasses, water vapor, and soot – are used to clear land for short term farming until the leached tropical soils are exhausted

Existential risk

Risk is the probability or threat of quantifiable damage, injury, liability, loss, or any other negative occurrence that is caused by external or internal vulnerabilities, and that may be avoided through preemptive action.

An existential risk is a risk posing permanent large negative consequences to humanity which can never be undone - One where an adverse outcome would either annihilate Earth-originating intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtail its potential.

The greatest existential risk to humanity is humanity itself.

10

11

PART 2 GLOBAL WARMING

IS THE MOST IMMEDIATE

RISK

Inconvenient Fact: Fort McMurray – worst disaster in Canadian history

Fort McMurray recorded 32.6°C temp, ~5°C above the previous record and 23°C above the average

Wildfire began May 1 ~80,000 people evacuated from the

northern Alberta, Canada oil tar sands town, Fort McMurray

Some 1,600+ buildings in the town destroyed, insured damage between $5 and $9 billion not counting ~$1 billion to GNP to lost oil production.

May 30 (Times Colonist) - The fire is still burning and covers about 5,800 square kilometres

12

15 of the 16 warmest years on record have occurred this century. 2015 was by far

the hottest year ever recorded. European Russia (2010) and Siberia (2012) blasted by similar record high

temperatures and catastrophic, long-burning wildfires The Russian fires had worldwide effects as burning peat bogs released huge

quantities of carbon dioxide and heavy smoke into the air that accelerate the greenhouse effect and made the air nearly unbreathable.

And then there is the deliberate torching of forests and peat in tropical Asia, Africa and South America, and “land clearing” in Australia

Inconvenient Fact North American temperature anomalies at time of

Fort McMurray fire catastrophe

Temperature anomalies as at 3 May, 2016 The temperature anomaly for a place is the positive or negative deviation from a long-term average temp over a stated period of time. Note extreme anomalies in western Canada (Fort McMurray area), in the Arctic Ocean, and north eastern Greenland. To see the state of the world at other times, click map, select: Region, Parameter -Mean Temp Anomaly, Year/Month/ day. See also: http://arctic-news.blogspot.com.au/2016/05/wildfire-danger-increasing.html 13

Inconvenient Fact: The average global temperature for June 2016 was

the highest for this month ever recorded

14

Inconvenient Facts: The average global temperature for June 2016 was the highest for this month ever recorded (cont.)

The combined global average temperature for June 2016 was the highest for June in the 137-year period of record, at 0.90°C above the 20th century average of 14.8°C, breaking the previous record set in 2015 by 0.02°C—the 14th consecutive month a monthly global temperature record has been broken

Australia's mean temperature during June 2016 was 1.30°C (2.34°F) above the 1961–1990 average, the sixth highest June temperature since national temperature records began in 1910. Minimum temperatures were much warmer than average, while maximum temperatures were near average. The nationally-averaged minimum temperature was 2.22°C (4.00°F) above average—the fourth highest June minimum temperature on record.

Globally, June 2016 tied with March 2015 as the ninth highest monthly temperature departure among all months (1,638) on record. Overall, 14 of the 15 highest monthly temperature departures in the record have all occurred since February 2015.

(US NOAA – State of the Climate Global Analysis – June 2016)

15

Inconvenient Facts: Globally, 2015 was by far the hottest year yet

recorded

16

15 of the 16 warmest years on record have occurred this century. The global annual temperature has increased at an average rate of

0.07°C per decade since 1880 and at an average rate of 0.17°C per decade since 1970. If the graph is indicative, the rate of increase is accelerating! NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies - http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

The average global temperature across land and ocean surface areas for 2015 was 0.90°C above the 20th century average of 13.9°C

Not only was 2015 the calendar year most extreme temperature, but also the most extreme temperature for ANY 12-month period on record.

17

Inconvenient fact: As temperatures spiral out of control, 2016 is already on track to be the hottest year ever

The latest extreme temperatures are in part an effect of the current El Niño.

As we are entering what appears to be La Niña part of the climate cycle, the rate of temperature increase may slow or even turn negative for a year or so.

However, each El Niño tends to be more extreme than the previous one. 18

Click graphic for animation

See additional graphics from the Washington Post

Inconvenient fact: This year, the average temperature over the Arctic Ocean and Greenland have been catastrophically high

19

(For other date ranges, click the map and select desired region and period)

Inconvenient facts: First there was Fort McMurray in Canada, and

Siberia – and summer is far from over!

20

Click articles for complete stories

Positive feedback cycles in 5 ‘spheres: geo-, atmo-, hydro-, bio- and anthro- that IPCC models neglect

21

That sinking feeling

See Feedbacks in the Arctic

22

PART 2 POLAR ICE MELTING

Inconvenient Fact: Arctic sea ice is melting at an unprecedented rate

The sea ice cover is one of the key components of the climate system. It has been a focus of attention in recent years, largely because of a strong decrease in the Arctic sea ice cover and modeling results that indicate that global warming could be amplified in the region by a factor of about 3 to 5 times on account of ice-albedo feedback. This results from the high reflectivity (albedo) of the sea ice compared to ice-free waters. (http://neptune.gsfc.nasa.gov/csb/index.php?section=234) 23

(Ramez Naam 2012. Arctic Sea Ice: What, Why, and What Next. Sci. Am. Guest Blog, Sept. 21, 2012)

Inconvenient picture The volume of summer ice on the Arctic Ocean is

spiraling towards none

Daily Arctic sea ice volume is estimated by the PIOMAS reconstruction from 1979-present, producing an inwards spiral as the volume of sea ice reduces.

24

Click graphic for animation

Inconvenient picture A perspective view of the declining volume of sea ice

covering the Arctic Ocean

Each turn of the circle increases the amount of solar energy converted to heat in the Arctic Ocean, to further increase the rate of melting.

As the ocean warms, melting of adjacent ice caps is accelerated. 25

Read diagram from top (oldest) down (most recent). Each turn of the circle is a hear

Inconvenient fact: 2015 had the fourth lowest minimum extent in the

satellite record

On September 11, 2015, sea ice extent dropped to 4.41 million square kilometers, the fourth lowest minimum in the satellite record.

In response to the setting sun and falling temperatures, ice extent will now climb through autumn and winter.

However, the 2015-16 winter recorded the smallest maximum ice extent yet measured…

Also, the ice that remains at the minimum is getting thinner and thinner so it melts all the quicker next year…

26 National Snow and Ice Data Center Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis

Inconvenient Fact: 2016 Arctic sea ice wintertime MAXIMUM extent

hits another record low.

The 13 smallest maximum extents on the satellite record have happened in the last 13 years. (NASA; US National Snow and Ice Data Center)

27

Arctic sea ice reached a record low wintertime maximum extent for the second year in a row (see Slide 17).

On March 24, Arctic sea ice peaked at 14.52 x 106 km2 , a new record low winter maximum since record began in 1979.

This is slightly smaller than the previous record low 14.54 x x 106 km2 that occurred last year.

The end of El Nino is slowing melting that is now slightly behind 2012 record. Current predictions are that the 2012 record will not be broken

Inconvenient Fact: 2016 could still have the lowest amount of summer

sea ice yet recorded in the Arctic

THIS IS A DANGEROUS POSITIVE FEEDBACK LOOP IN ACTION White ice reflects sunlight as visible light and is not heated Visible light is not absorbed by greenhouse gases & escapes to space Dark sea water absorbs most sunlight, melting ice and heating the ocean and the air above it Heat melts more ice, exposing more ocean to light absorption, to further reduce ice cover Increased open ocean allows larger waves to develop – breaking up surface ice to help melt it Warm air, water and atmosphere emit infrared radiation Infrared radiation is blocked & absorbed by greenhouse gases Energy absorbed by greenhouse gases further heats atmosphere Warm atmosphere re-emits IR radiation back towards surface to heat it more 28

As at 30 Jan arctic temps 10º - 20º above normal, June was close to normal (click picture) but ice still melting

27 July

Arctic sea ice gone by September 2016?

Why the loss of sea ice is so dangerous to global warming

Sea ice minimizes local warming by reflecting most solar energy away from the ocean. Open water absorbs most of that energy to heat the water and overlying atmosphere 29

Inconvenient Fact: Early April start to Greenland Ice Cap melting season

As at 22/06/2016 Greenland’s three melt surges rival 2012 record: Greenland’s 2016 melt season started fast. It maintained a brisk pace with three extreme spikes in areas of melt through June 19. On June 9, Nuuk, the capital, reached the warmest temperature ever recorded for the month of June anywhere on the island, 24 degrees Celsius (75 degrees Fahrenheit).

Melting from April 10 through April 15, from record warm air over the entire ice sheet and rain along the west coast. 10 percent of the ice sheet surface melted on April 11, 5 percent on April 12 and less later.

During that melt event, temperatures rose up to 16 degrees Celsius (29 degrees Fahrenheit) above average for this time of year.

Positive feedback: Melting increases snow grain size to absorb more energy, fostering further melting. If the Greenland Ice Sheet melts away completely, sea level will rise ~7 meters (Gregory et al. 2004) For the latest news on Arctic warming see http://Arctic News/ 30

(US National Snow and Ice Data Center: Greenland Ice Sheet Today – 24 July)

(See Slide 11)

Although extent of melting still higher than average, the end of El Nino seems to be slowing it.

Inconvenient fact: Since 2003 Greenland has lost ~3.4 tera tons/3400 cubic miles of ice – to raise sea level by ~7.5 cm

Shows the total change in mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Here you can follow how the ice sheet gains mass through snowfall accumulating on the surface and how it shrinks through melting from the surface and discharge of icebergs from glaciers that end in the sea. More ice melts each summer than accumulates over winter. The gravity data comes from the NASA and German Aerospace Center (DLR) GRACE mission. Data are processed at different processing centers, which provide monthly models of the gravity field to the user. These monthly models are processed after Barletta et al. (2013) to derive ice mass changes 31

Monthly changes in the mass of Greenland ice since 2003 based on satellite measurements

Areas of ice melting and accumulation

Inconvenient Fact: Much of the land surface of Antarctica (and some of

Greenland) is below current sea level

When an ice sheet rests on a bed below sea level, ocean currents can deliver warm sea water to where the ice sits on the bed. This is step 1 in a potential chain reaction to speed melting.

Ocean heat eats away at the ice, and the grounding line retreats inland and ice shelves lose mass.

When ice shelves lose mass, they allow inland glaciers to march to the sea, meaning those glaciers can accelerate and thin as a result of the acceleration. This thinning facilitates further retreat of the grounding line, more acceleration and more thinning. More ice flows to sea every year and sea level rises. (Positive feedback!)

Inland of the ice sheet’s edge, the bed may slope steeply downward. In places the bed is more than a mile and a half below sea level. Where such slopes exist, when grounding lines retreat, warm sea water can infiltrate between the ice and the bed and cause the ice sheet to float off its grounding line. (NASA The "Unstable" West Antarctic Ice Sheet: A Primer)

Fresh meltwater floats on denser but warm sea water and freezes quickly in winter to insulate warm water below from icy winds – paradoxically allowing undermining to continue even in winter! 32

If the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet melted, this would contribute 4.8 m to global sea level (Because ice below sea level is replaced by the ocean, melting here does not add as much to sea level rise as ice perched enitrely above sea level in the east).

Models for the melting of grounded ice sheets (i.e. the land-based parts of the polar ice caps)

33 Deconto & Pollard 2016. Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise. Nature http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nature17145

Inconvenient Fact: Global sea levels are already rising due to warming

oceans and melting ice caps

High quality measurements of (near)-global sea level have been made since late 1992 by satellite altimeters.

This data shows a more-or-less steady increase in Global Mean Sea Level around 3.2±0.4 mm/year since 1992 - more than 50% larger than the average value over the 20th century. (CSIRO Sea Level Rise – Historical Sea Level Changes) 34

Sydney, 7 June ‘16

Shoreline retreat will accelerate!

35 Click picture to see a year of CO2 emissions in the Earth’s atmosphere

Some definitions relating to atmospheric science and “greenhouse gases”

Greenhouse effect: - Determined by physical properties of

atmospheric gases and the wavelength of radiant energy

- Short wavelength energy (i.e. visible light) not absorbed/reflected by gas

- Long wavelenth energy (i.e., infrared) absorbed or reflected to some degree

- Reflected/absorbed IR heats planet See Global Warming, Clouds, and Albedo:

Feedback Loops Atmospheric lifetime:

– Simplistically, the atmospheric “lifetime” of a greenhouse gas is the time it takes a pulse of the gas to decay to 0.368 (=1/e) of its original value.

– CO2’s lifetime is complicated (1) by temporary removal processes which store carbon in the biosphere before it is returned to the atmosphere as CO2 via respiration or, as a combustion product, in fires and (2) by its absorption by and acidification of the oceans. Because the modelled decay curve depends on the model used and the assumptions incorporated therein, it is difficult to specify an exact atmospheric lifetime for CO2. Most IPCC estimates fall in the 100-300-year range.

– Methane is removed from the atmosphere primarily through oxidation by hydroxyl radicals (OH-), but increased concentration of CH4 reduces the OH- concentration, which, in turn, reduces the rate of methane destruction, effectively lengthening its atmospheric lifetime. 36

Radiative Forcing Radiative forcing is

defined as the difference of insolation (energy transported by sunlight) absorbed by the Earth and energy reflected back to space. Radiative forcing is quantified at the tropopause in units of watts per square meter of the Earth's surface. Positive forcing (more trapped incoming energy) warms the system, while negative forcing (more energy escaping) cools it.

The graph summarizes the various components of the atmospheric greenhouse. – Albedo refers to the percentage of light reflected back to space as light. An albedo of 1

means that 100% of the incoming light is reflected without heating the planet, while an albedo of 0 means that all the light is absorbed and turned to heat.

– Aerosols refer to dust and tiny droplets of sulfuric acid that reflect light back to space. 37

Inconvenient Facts: CO2 vs methane in the amosphere

CO2 currently contributes more to global warming than methane. IPCC believes that natural processes remove CO2 from the atmosphere very slowly, with an atmospheric lifetime of centuries

Methane has a lifetime of around 12 years in the atmosphere (see Slide 27)

38

Amount more than tripled

39

PART 4 METHANE AND

METHANE HYDRATES

Global Distribution of Atmospheric Methane NOAA ESRL GMD Carbon Cycle

Inconvenient Fact: Melting of methane clathrates may force

catastrophic climate change through positive feedback

See Arctic News: Methane; Methane Hydrates 40

Inconvenient Fact: Methane may soon have even more impact on global

warming than CO2 has

41

Although human activities release a lot of methane, huge amounts are stored in temp sensitive ice-like hydrates known as clathrates in arctic regions. These reserves are held in arctic permafrost and on shallow continental shelves. As temperatures rise, methane in clathrates turns to gas that escapes to the atmosphere to further increase global warming. Because this is a geophysical process depending on temperature and pressure alone, it will be an unstoppable positive feedback process

Inconvenient fact: Atmospheric methane is rising fast even on an annual

basis

42

Earth System Research Laboratory Global Monitoring Division

Inconvenient fact: Formation of complexes with other gases increases

methane’s global warming potential

NASA - Interactions with Aerosols Boost Warming Potential of Some Gases

43

Potential sources of catastrophic positive feedback for methane

See Arctic News: Methane; especially How Much Time Is There Left to Act 44