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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution,

Current Status and Prediction

Update prepared byClimate Prediction Center / NCEP

August 19, 2013

For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml

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Outline• Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions• Monsoon Prediction• Summary• Climatology

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Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days

During the past 90 days, rainfall has been generally above normal over much of central and northern India, Indonesia and Philippines, but below normal elsewhere especially over parts of southeastern China, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

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Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days

The 30-day anomalous rainfall pattern over monsoon Asia is relatively similar to the 90-day pattern. Central and Northern India continues to receive above normal monsoon rainfall.

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Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days

During this past week, the monsoon rains have been pretty good over large parts of India and somewhat heavy over southeastern China. But rainfall continues to be deficient over central and eastern China. As of 19th of August (since 1st of June) , the India Met. Dept. (IMD) has announced that the all India monsoon rainfall index measure continues to be 14% above long term mean.

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Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes

The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

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Atmospheric Circulation

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NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2

Week-1

Week-2

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SummaryDuring the past 90 days, rainfall has been generally above normal over much of central and northern India, Indonesia and Philippines, but below normal elsewhere especially over parts of southeastern China, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. The 30-day anomalous rainfall pattern over monsoon Asia is relatively similar to the 90-day pattern. Central and Northern India continues to receive above normal monsoon rainfall.During this past week, the monsoon rains have been pretty good over large parts of India and somewhat heavy over southeastern China. But rainfall continues to be deficient over central and eastern China. As of 19th of August (since 1st of June) , the India Met. Dept. (IMD) has announced that the all India monsoon rainfall index measure continues to be 14% above long term mean. For the next two weeks, the NCEP GFS model predicts generally below rainfall over large parts of India, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos, and above normal amounts over north central India and coastal southeastern China.

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Demise of the Asian MonsoonDemise of the Asian Monsoon

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Onset of the Australian MonsoonOnset of the Australian Monsoon

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ClimatologyClimatology