the assessment report for climate change in cities (arc3-2...

International Conference on Sustainable Infrastructure 2016 - Shenzhen, China

Toward Developing a Blueprint for Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure: US National Science Foundation

Jeffrey Raven- October 2016

The Assessment Report for Climate Change in Cities (ARC3-2) Urban Planning and Design

Extracts from ARC3-2 Findings*

Jeffrey Raven1, Brian Stone2, Gerald Mills3, Joel Towers4, Lutz Katzschner5, Mattia Leone6, Pascaline Gaborit7, Matei Georgescu8, Maryam Hariri9, James Lee10, Jeffrey LeJava11, Ayyoob Sharifi12, Cristina Visconti13, Andrew Rudd14

1 Graduate Program in Urban and Regional Design, New York Institute of Technology, 1855 Broadway, New York, NY 10023 / Raven A+U; [email protected] 2 School of City and Regional Planning, Georgia Institute of Technology, Suite 204, 245 Fourth Street, NW, Atlanta, GA, [email protected] 3 School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Policy, University College Dublin; E001 Newman Building, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland; [email protected] 4 Parsons The New School for Design; New York, NY, 10011, USA; [email protected] Department: FB 06 5

Architektur, Stadtplanung, Landschaftsplanung; Universitat Kassel, Henschelstr. 2, Kassel D-34127, Germany; [email protected] 6 University of Napoli Federico II - Department of Architecture / PLINIVS-LUPT Study Center, Via Toledo 402, 80134 Napoli, Italy; [email protected] 7 European New Towns & Pilot Cities Platform, Rue du Trône n°4 1000 Brussels, Belgium; [email protected] 8 School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning; Arizona State University; PO Box 875302 Tempe, AZ, USA; 85287-5302, [email protected] 9 Environmental Studies Program, New York University; 285 Mercer Street, 9th Floor New York, NY 10003, USA; [email protected]

*This is a draft excerpt based on the work in progress of the Second Assessment Report on Climate Change and CIties (ARC3-2) document. The final and complete document will be published in 2016 by Cambridge University Press.

1. Introduction

In 2007 the Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN) was established during the C40-Large Cities Climate Summit. It is based at the Earth Institute in Columbia University. The UCCRN plays a key role in supporting a burgeoning ‘network of networks’ related to climate change and cities, through its own research, workshops, and networking. Key stakeholders with strong synergistic activities with ARC3 include: cities, city networks including general city groups, nation states, and international development agencies. UCCRN also supports other groups including NGOs, non-profits, private companies such as private-sector city planning and engineering firms, and other stakeholders concerned with the long-term development of cities (uccrn.org). As part of its activities it has undertaken an Assessment of Climate Change in Cities (ARC3) that mirrors the well-known IPCC assessment reports. The first ARC report (ARC3-1) was published in 2011 and focuses on how to use climate science and socio-economic research to map a city’s vulnerability to climate hazards, and how cities can enhance their adaptive and mitigative capacity to deal with climate change over different timescales. The second ARC Summary Report (ARC3-2) was presented at the 21st UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris, and the contents of the final report will be presented at the 2016 UN Habitat III Conference in Quito. This report contains a chapter on Urban Planning and Design, which attempts to bring together literature and strategies on how urban decision-making can enhance or moderate urban climate effects. Sixty percent of the world’s projected urbanized area by 2030 remains to be built, with some 90% of this in the developing world (Elmqvist et al, Eds., 2013). It is these urban areas that will have the greatest potential to

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moderate future climate change, and so it is critical that their optimal planning commence now, in advance of their construction. This paper extracts some of the key ideas the Urban Planning and Design chapter in ARC3-2 that contribute to developing a blueprint for sustainable-resilient infrastructure for China, the Asian Region and the world. Embedding Climate Change in Urban Planning and Design Urban planning and urban design have a critical role to play in the global response to climate change. Actions that simultaneously reduce greenhouse gas emissions and build resilience to climate risks should be prioritized at all urban scales—metropolitan region, city, district/neighborhood, block, and building. This needs to be done in ways that are responsive to and appropriate for local conditions. Major Findings Urban planners and designers have a portfolio of climate change strategies that guide decisions on urban form and function. • Urban waste heat and greenhouse gas emissions from infrastructure—including buildings, transportation —

and industry can be reduced through improvements in the efficiency of urban systems (Figure1.1). • Modifying the form and layout of buildings and urban districts can provide cooling and ventilation that reduces

energy use and allow citizens to cope with higher temperatures and more intense runoff (Figure1.2). • Selecting low heat capacity construction materials and reflective coatings can improve building performance

by managing heat exchange at the surface (Figure1.3.). • Increasing the vegetative cover in a city can simultaneously lower outdoor temperatures, building cooling

demand, runoff, and pollution, while sequestering carbon (Figure 1.4).

Figure 1: Strategies used by urban planners and designers to facilitate integrated mitigation and adaptation in cities: (1) reducing waste heat and greenhouse gas emissions through energy efficiency, transit access, and walkability; (2) modifying form and layout of buildings and urban districts; (3) use of heat-resistant construction materials and reflective surface coatings; and (4) increasing vegetative cover. Source: Urban Climate Lab, Graduate Program in Urban & Regional Design, New York Institute of Technology, 2016.




Key Messages Climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies should form a core element in urban planning and design taking into account local conditions. Decisions on urban form have longterm (>50 years) consequences and affect a city’s capacity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to respond to climate hazards. Investing in mitigation strategies that yield concurrent adaptive benefits should be prioritized.

Densely occupied cities are more efficient in their use of energy (and generate less waste heat as a consequence).

From parcel and neighborhood scale to municipal and regional scale, a discontinuity of policy between scales challenges the public’s understanding of holistic urban form. Consideration needs to be given to how regional decisions may affect neighborhoods or individual parcels and vice versa, and few tools have been developed to assess conditions in the urban environment at city block or neighborhood scale.

There is a growing consensus around integrating urban planning and design, climate science, and policy to bring about desirable micro-climates within compact, pedestrian-friendly built environments.

Urban climatology research produces sophisticated but theoretical results that resist easy integration with empirical, design-oriented findings of urban design.

Urban planning and design should incorporate long-range strategies for climate change that reach across physical scales, jurisdictions, and electoral timeframes. These activities need to deliver a higher quality of life for urban citizens as the key performance outcome, as well as climate change benefits.

Integrated mitigation and adaptation Framework for Sustainable and Resilient Cities Urban planning and urban design can be critical platforms for integrated mitigation and adaptation responses to the challenges of climate change. They have the opportunity to expand on the traditional influence and capabilities of practitioners and policymakers and integrate climate science, natural systems, and urban form—particularly compact urban form—to configure dynamic, desirable, and healthy communities. Traditionally, urban planning and design have focused on settlement patterns, optimized land use, maximized proximity, community engagement, place-making, quality of life, and urban vitality. Their focus is increasingly expanding to include principles such as resilience, comfort, resource efficiency, and biotic support. Applying these principles to urban policy helps to identify and strengthen prescriptive measures and performance standards and broaden urban performance indicators. If future cities are to be sustainable and resilient, they must develop the physical and institutional capacities to respond to constant change and uncertainty. This will require strategies for long-term commitments across multiple electoral cycles and often among many political jurisdictions that constitute functional metropolitan areas. Recognition of the growing vulnerability of urban populations to climate-related health threats requires the climate management activities of municipal governments be broadened. One means of doing so is to prioritize investments in mitigation strategies that yield concurrent adaptive benefits over those that do not. At present, non-integrated mitigation and adaptation is most commonly pursued, with the majority of mitigation funds directed to energy projects that produce no secondary benefits for local populations in the form of heat management and enhanced flood protection, or reduced damage to private property and public infrastructure. For example, mitigation strategies involving the substitution of a lower carbon-intensive fuel, such as natural gas, for a higher carbon-intensive fuel, such as coal, are an effective means of lowering CO2 emissions, yet provide few benefits related to climate adaptation.




Forward-thinking cities are beginning to exploit the positive potential of both natural systems-including green infrastructure, urban ventilation and solar orientation - to “future-proof” the built environment in response to changing conditions (see Figure 2). These passive urban design strategies “lock in” long-term resilience and sustainability, protecting the city from future decisions that could undermine its adaptability. They also remove the risk of relying on bolted-on, applied technologies that may require expensive maintenance or become obsolete in a short time. These form-based, contextually-specific urban planning and urban design strategies are the ultimate guarantors of successful life-cycle costs, payback, and liveability.

Figure 2: ’Green and blue fingers’ in Thanh Hoa City, Vietnam planned for 2020: Contiguous green corridors and canal circulation networks aligned with prevailing summer breezes, punctuated by stormwater retention bodies as urban design amenities, J. Raven-Louis Berger Group (2008).

Integrated mitigation and adaptation in cities can assume many forms across spatial scales, urban systems, and physical networks; in fact, a wide range of strategies adopted in service of urban sustainability already advance this objective. Enhanced urban transit, for example, has the effect of reducing both carbon emissions from single occupant vehicle use and waste heat emissions, which contribute to the urban heat island effect. Investments in pedestrian and cycling corridors, particularly when integrated with parks and other green space planning in cities, can reduce carbon emissions, enhance carbon sequestration, and, perhaps most effectively, cool cities through evapotranspiration and shading. Sustainability strategies across urban systems can contribute to climate management goals under the umbrella of integrated mitigation and adaptation. Urban Climate Change Considerations Urban areas occupy a small percentage (perhaps less than 3%) of the planet’s land area, but this area is intensively modified, (Miller and Small 2003; Schneider et al., 2009). The landscape changes that accompany urbanization modify climate across a spectrum of scales, from the micro-scale (e.g. street) and city-scale, to regional and global scales. The most profound changes occur in the layer of air below roof height. Here access to sunlight is restricted, wind is slowed and diverted, and energy exchanges between buildings are the norm. The spatial heterogeneity of the urban landscape creates a myriad of micro-climates associated with individual buildings and their relative disposition, streets and parks, etc. (Errel et al. 2012). This is also the layer of intense human occupation, where building heating and cooling demand is met, emissions of waste heat and pollution from traffic are concentrated, and humans are exposed to a great variety of indoor and outdoor urban climates. The magnitude of the urban climate effect is linked to both the form and function of cities (Box below). The former refers to aspects of the physical character of cities, including the extent of paving and the density of buildings. The latter describes the nature of urban occupancy including the energy used in buildings, transport, and industry. Integrated mitigation and adaptation strategies focus on managing urban form and function together to moderate climate changes at urban, regional, and global scales.




Urban form and function The physical character of cities can be described by three aspects of form: land cover, urban materials, and morphology. On the other hand, the flow of materials through a city describes its metabolism, the character of which is regulated by its functions (e.g. Decker et al., 2000). Surface cover (Form): The replacement of natural land covers by impermeable materials limits the infiltration of precipitation into the substrate, increases runoff, and decreases evapotranspiration.

Construction materials and surface coating (Form): Common urban materials such as concrete have high conductivity and heat capacity values that can store heat efficiently. Also many urban materials are dark colored and reflect poorly (e.g. asphalt). Morphology (Form): The configuration and orientation of the built environment, from regional settlement patterns to buildings create a corrugated surface that slows and redirects near surface airflow and traps radiation. Urban activities (Function): Cities concentrate material, water, and energy use that must be acquired from a much larger area. Some is used to build the city (changing its form) but most is employed to sustain its economy and society. Once used, the wastes and emissions are deposited into the wider environment, degrading soil, water and air quality, and increasing heat impacts over a wide area. Surface cover (Form): The replacement of natural land covers by impermeable materials limits the infiltration of precipitation into the substrate, increases runoff, and decreases evapotranspiration.




Urban Functions: Efficiency of Urban Systems - Compact Form, Energy, and Emissions Since the middle of the 20th century, built environments the world over have tended to increase outward from central cities consuming great swaths of previously undeveloped land while reinvestment in central cities falters. The infrastructure network needed to maintain this sprawling development pattern, particularly roads, has resulted in development that is land and infrastructure inefficient. It has also led to increased reliance on motor vehicles to get from one place to another. This reliance on motor vehicles has consequently led to a significant increase in Vehicle Miles (or kilometers) Traveled (VMT), a concomitant increase in greenhouse gas emissions, and an amplification of the urban heat island effect through increased imperviousness, reduced green cover, and enhanced waste heat emissions (Stone et al. 2011). By developing in a denser, more compact form that mixes land use and supports mass transit use (Figure 3), cities may begin to reverse these trends.

Figure 3: Efficiency of Urban Systems. Urban Climate Lab, Graduate Program in Urban & Regional Design, New York Institute of Technology, 2016.




Morphology: Climate-resilient urban form and layout Urban morphology is defined as the three-dimensional form and layout of the built environment and settlement pattern. From regional, urban and district scales to finer-grain street grids that promote walkability and social cohesion, climate-resilient planning and design strategies include configuration of urban morphology influenced by solar design, urban ventilation, and enhanced vegetation (Figure 4). There are almost infinite combinations of different climate contexts, urban geometries, climate variables, and design objectives. A starting point in any project is to assess the micro- and macro-climatic characteristics of the site, an exercise that will indicate appropriate bioclimatic design strategies (Brophy et al. 2000). As the climate heats up, compact communities offer attractive alternatives to suburban sprawl by featuring comfortable, healthy micro-climates with comparable natural amenities.

Figure 4: Urban Form and Layout. Source: Urban Climate Lab, Graduate Program in Urban & Regional Design, New York Institute of Technology, 2016.




Urban Materials: Surface Reflectivity and Heat-Resistant Construction Material Increasing the surface reflectivity or ’albedo’ of urban materials is a well-established urban heat management strategy. Due to the darkly-hued paving and roofing materials distributed throughout cities, a larger quantity of solar energy is often absorbed in cities than in adjacent rural areas with higher surface reflectivity, contributing to a lower albedo. Unable to compensate for an enhanced absorption of solar energy through an increase in evapotranspiration, a larger percentage of this absorbed energy is returned to the atmosphere as sensible heat and longwave radiation, raising temperatures (Figure 5). Recognition of the potential to measurably cool cities through the application of highly reflective coatings to roofing surfaces and streets has led to the development of new product lines known as “cool” roofing and paving materials. For roofing surfaces concealed from ground view, such as atop a flat industrial building, very high-albedo, cool material coatings can be applied to reflect away a substantial percentage of incoming solar radiation. Industry analyses of these materials have found that the surface temperature of roofing materials can be reduced by as much as 50◦F during periods of intense solar gain.

Figure 5: Surface Reflectivity. Urban Climate Lab, Graduate Program in Urban & Regional Design, New York Institute of Technology, 2016.




Surface Cover: Vegetation—Green and Blue Infrastructure The interaction of green and blue components in the urban environment links together integrated mitigation and adaptation strategies at different scales—from buildings and open spaces design to landscape design and metropolitan region planning, and can yield many co-benefits (Figure 6). A comprehensive climate-based design supports developing and maintaining a network of green and blue infrastructure integrated with the built environment to conserve ecosystem functions and provide associated benefits to human populations (STAR Communities, 2014). Urban planning and design strategies focusing on green infrastructure and sustainable water management help restore interactions between built and ecological environments. This is necessary to improve the resilience of urban systems reduce the vulnerability of socio-economic systems and preserve biodiversity (UNEP 2010).

Figure 6: Surface Cover. Source: Urban Climate Lab, Graduate Program in Urban & Regional Design, New York Institute of Technology, 2016.




Policy Recommendations A planning and design approach to urban climate intervention should follow a four-phase: Climate analysis mapping, public space evaluation, planning and design intervention, and post intervention evaluation approach (Figure 7).

Figure 7: Urban Climate Planning and Design Process. Urban Climate Lab, Graduate Program in Urban & Regional Design, New York Institute of Technology, 2016. Climate Analysis Mapping Considering climate in urban planning and design, the first step is to understand large-scale climatic conditions in Individual inner city local climates including their reciprocal interactions (Figure 7). Considerations include: • Regional occurrence and frequency of air masses exchange (ventilation) and their frequencies; • Seasonal occurrence of the thermal and air quality effects of urban climate (stress areas, insolation rates,

shading conditions); • Regional presentation and evaluation of the impact area and stress areas; • Energy optimization of location based on the urban climate analysis with regard to areas with heat load and

cold air areas, building density.

Climate analysis maps provide a critical first step in identifying urban zones subject to the greatest impacts associated with rising temperatures, increasing precipitation, and extreme weather events A climate analysis map may be developed in consecutive steps on the basis of spatial reference data. The spatial resolution is tailored to the planning level. Commonly employed climate analysis maps include urban heat hotspot and flood zone maps routinely employed in urban planning applications.

Public Space Evaluation




Urban climate is an essential part of urban planning evaluation. Urban climate maps are increasingly used in the planning process for urban development as well as for open space design. The public should be involved at all stages through the use of interactive geographical information systems and/or surveys which helps citizens to foresee potential land use changes. This enables climatic evaluation through spatial and temporal quantitative descriptions and specifications. At the regional level, areas worth protecting their climatic functions or where there are areas of heat load, fresh air supply and ventilation pathways, are identified as key targets for planning measures.

Planning and Design Intervention The task of planning and designing interventions relevant to urban climatology is to improve air quality and thermal conditions: • Reduction of urban heat islands (heat islands being an indication of thermal comfort/discomfort) by open

space planning • Optimization of urban ventilation via air exchange and wind corridors. • Prevention of stagnating air in stationary temperature inversion conditions by eliminating barriers against air

exchange • Maintenance and promotion of fresh air or cool air generation areas to further air exchange and to improve

air quality

Post-Intervention Evaluation • Field measurement studies should be conducted to assess the microclimatic performance of the urban design

and planning intervention. Infrared thermal imaging, and/or population surveys can be undertaken to assess the variation of temperature compared to conditions prior to intervention. Climate-resilient strategies can have the effect of prolonging moderate temperatures with associated benefits to public health and energy savings.

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