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The BeaconPakistan Navy War College Review (2017-2018)

47th Pakistan Navy Staff Course

PAKISTAN NAVY WAR COLLEGENaval Complex Walton, Askari V, Gulberg III, Lahore, Pakistan

Ph: 0092-42-99232416, 66960103, Fax: 0092-42-99232419Email: [email protected], Web: www.paknavy.gov

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DisclaimerThe thoughts and views expressed in The Beacon are those of authors and not necessarily those of

Pakistan Navy War College or Pakistan Navy.

The BeaconPakistan Navy War College Review (2017-2018)

The Beacon is the new avatar of Pakistan Navy War College’s annual publication. It carries a compilation of selected research papers contributed by Course Participants and College Faculty of the 47th Pakistan Navy Staff Course. The Beacon primarily endeavours to disseminate maritime and security knowledge related to oceanic affairs. The Beacon also includes other selected titles for wider readership both, within and outside the Navy. Subjects of national or international significance such as; conflict and conflict resolution, socio-economic challenges, climate change and environmental security as well as regional & international geopolitical trends appear on the pages of The Beacon.

iii

PATRON-IN-CHIEF

Rear Admiral Naveed Ahmed Rizvi HI(M)

PATRON

Cdre Ch.Sajjad Akber Khan SI(M)

CHIEF EDITOR

Ms. Sana Saghir

EDITOR

Lt Cdr Aamer Shakoor PN

MEMBERS

Lt Cdr Saeed Ur Rehman PN Lt Cdr M Asad Yaseen PNLt Cdr Kashif Azeem PN

Lt Cdr M Mohsin Qadeer PN

iv

ADVISORY BOARD

Dr. Stanley Byron WeeksConsulting Employee Science Applications InternationalCorporation (SAIC) Mc Lean,Virginia, USA

Dr. Wang DakuiDirectorNational Marine EnvironmentalForecasting Centre (NMEFC), China

Prof Wang DehuaDirector Institute of South and Central Asian Studies,China

Dr. Amin TarziDirectorMiddle East StudiesMarine Corps University (MCU), USA

Cdre Dr. S. M. Shahzad SI(M) Naval Headquarters, Islamabad

Cdr (R) Dr. Azhar AhmadHOD (Humanity and Social Sciences),Bahria University, Islamabad

Cdre (R) Dr. Ihsan Qadir SI(M)Ex-Director NCMPR, Karachi

Dr. Hasan Yaser Malik TI(M)Manager (Corporate Affairs) Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Limited, Islamabad

Dr. Aiysha SafdarLecturer, Kinnaird College, Lahore

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CONTENTS

Sr. # Title Page #

1Improving Health of Fishing Industry to Revive Country’s Blue EconomyLt Cdr Tahir Majeed Asim TI(M) PN

1

2Analyzing The Evolving Defence Collaboration Between Pakistan and RussiaMajor Tipoo Awan PA

19

3Indian Ballistic Missile Defence Programme and Its Implications for PakistanLt Cdr Usman Zafar TI(M) PN

31

4Emerging Regional Faultlines in Middle East and Its Ramifications for PakistanLt Cdr Muhammad Sumair Irshad PN

41

5Development of Coastal Tourism in Pakistan Prospects & Way ForwardLt Cdr Zahid Khan PN

54

6Impact of 2050 African Integrated Maritime Strategy (Aims) on South African NavyCommander Dieter Jones (South African Navy)

69

7Connecting Ships, Ports and People – Challenges and Way Forward for PakistanCdr Shahzad Aslam Syal PN

80

8

BOOK REVIEWSSea Power – The History and Geopolitics of The World’s OceansAdmiral (R) James Stavridis USN (United States Navy)

Reviewed by Lt Cdr Tahir Majeed Asim TI(M) PN

88

9Sapiens: A Brief History of HumankindYuval Noah Harari

Reviewed By Lt Cdr Asad Yaseen PN92

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Sr. # Title Page #

10

India-Pakistan Nuclear Diplomacy – Constructivism and The Prospects for Nuclear Arms Control and Disarmament in South Asia Mario E Carranza

Reviewed by Lt Cdr Mobeen Ul Haq PN

95

11

A LEAF FROM HISTORYJapanese Attack on Pearl Harbour- A Strategic MistakeCapt. Umar Hayat PN

98

12

Alumni SectionResearch at Pakistan Navy War College Gets Global Accreditation 105

1

IMPROVING HEALTH OF FISHING INDUSTRY TOREVIVE COUNTRY’S BLUE ECONOMY

Lt Cdr Tahir Majeed Asim TI(M) PN*

ABSTRACT

Pakistan is blessed with 290,000 km2 of EEZ and continental shelf and its waters contain the world’s most diverse species of fish. However, in absence of a strategic vision, guidelines,

lack of political will, non-coherent and conflicting interests of provinces, fishing industry of Pakistan is transiting through

its lowest ebb. Ever increasing fishing fleet and use of banned nets has caused immense destruction in fisheries sector of the country. Moreover, illegal, unreported and unregulated

fishing, destruction of mangroves forest, damage to ecosystem due rising pollution in Arabian Sea, non-adherence

to policies and local/international fishing laws, unhygienic conditions at fish harbours, absence of stowage facilities for preservation of fish catch have further aggravated the

challenges associated with fisheries sector of Pakistan. This research work discusses the challenges faced by Pakistan’s

fishing industry and recommends a way forward to transform this industry into a cornerstone of country’s Blue Economy.

Keywords: continental shelf, exclusive economic zone, strategic vision

_______________________*Lt Cdr Tahir Majeed Asim TI (M) was commissioned in Operations Branch of Pakistan Navy in 2002. He has done his Bachelors in Electronics Engineering from Pakistan Naval Engineering College (PNEC) and was awarded Chief of Naval Staff (CNS) Gold Medal for overall best performance in academics. The author has held various appointments: Flag Lieutenant to Commander Pakistan Fleet, Principal Warfare Officer (PWO) onboard PNS ZULFIQUAR, Commanding Officer onboard PNS ZARRAR, Executive Officer onboard PNS AZMAT. He has also done Master’s degree with distinction in Joint C4I Systems Technology and Master’s degree in Joint Information Operations from US. He is also a recipient of Tamgha-e-Imtiaz (Military). The officer is a graduate of 47th Pakistan Navy Staff Course (PNSC). His Individual Research Paper (IRP) was adjudged best amongst Pakistani Course Members of the 47th PNSC. This paper is an abridged version of author’s IRP.

2 THE BEACON - PNWC Review (2017-2018)

INTRODUCTION

Geographical location of Pakistan with more than 1000 km coastline along Arabian Sea, 240,000 km2 of exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and 50,000 km2 of continental shelf provides Pakistan significantly large maritime avenues for exploration. This includes but not limited to exploration of oil, gas & mineral reserves from sea, seabed & subsea soil mineral, marine & coastal tourism, seafaring community, coastal economy, development of port infrastructure to handle country’s seaborne trade, shipbuilding & shipbreaking industry and fisheries industry. Realization of this sector’s potential can benefit and expand the country’s Blue Economy.1 Among segments of Blue Economy, fisheries sector is currently contributing marginally towards national economy in terms of foreign exchange earnings. Besides, being the cheapest source of animal protein from variety of species found in country’s EEZ, fisheries also provides livelihood to thousands of people residing near Makran coast.

Today Pakistan’s fishing industry has evolved into a fairly large fleet comprising of a variety of boats with varying sizes and fishing nets. Among many other factors, this increase in fishing fleet size has affected this industry on two fronts. On one hand, more people have been provided livelihood but at the same time, it has resulted in over-fishing and illegal sale of fish at sea. This has eradicated numerous fish species owing to over-fishing. Exports from this sector have been drastically reduced owing to ban imposed by European Union (EU) since 2007 on the pretext of unhygienic conditions onboard fishing vessels and fisheries auction yards and other unsanitary practices involved in fish processing plants.

While battling with its existence and remaining engulfed with multifaceted problems, a total of 103,277 tonnes of fish and its value-added products were exported during 2016-17 (July-March) earning US $ 276.269 million as compared to 92,046 tonnes of exports worth US $ 240.038 million during 2015-16. Pakistan’s fish industry contributes less than 0.5% to the country’s GDP. On a comparative scale, other regional countries such as Bangladesh whose annual earnings from seafood exports totalled US $ 530 million in the year 2015-16 while contributing over 4.5% to country’s GDP, Pakistan seafood industry has a negligible contribution in country’s economy. It is imperative for Pakistan to fully exploit its

Improving Health of Fishing Industry to Revive Country’s Blue Economy 3

marine resources to earn a significant amount of foreign exchange reserve thereby improving the overall health of this sector, ensuring food security and respectable livelihood for those directly or indirectly involved in the fishing industry.

Maritime Dimensions of Pakistan

Pakistan is blessed with a coastline of more than 1000 km and rich marine resources including unexplored oil, gas and mineral reserves. Totalling an area of 290,000 km2, Pakistan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and extended continental shelf are bigger than combined areas of the province of Punjab and Sindh and slightly less than the area of Balochistan. The coastal area of Pakistan is regarded as a complex system of rivers, inlets, mangroves, and contains world’s sixth largest river Indus flowing from Himalayas to the Arabian Sea.2

Pakistan’s marine fishery sector accounts for approximately 80% of the country’s total fish production.3 The marine fisheries sector of Pakistan remains a vital source of food and income for over a million people residing in the coastal areas and foreign exchange for the country.4 The coastal economy is largely dependent on fishing sector and remains a vibrant element of country’s economic arena. In general, Pakistani population is more dependent on chicken for animal protein as consumption of seafood is one of the worlds’ lowest in Pakistan with annual per capita intake of about 1.8 kg as compared to around 20 kg per capita in other parts of the world.5

Fishing Zones

In order to regulate the overall fishing activity and facilitate the local fishermen, the Federal Government has delineated fishing in following three zones in its Deep Sea Fishing Policy 2009:

• Zone – I. Zone – I start from internal waters and from baseline to 12 nautical miles (NM). This zone is under the jurisdiction of respective provincial governments of Sindh and Balochistan.

• Zone – II. The area between 12 to 20 NM is under the


jurisdiction of Federal Government and act as a buffer zone to facilitate local fishermen.

• Zone – III. The area between 20 to 200 NM under this zone comes under the jurisdiction of Federal Government for Deep Sea Fishing.

Present and Past Seafood Exports from Pakistan

Seafood exports from Pakistan generally fall into two major categories i.e. dried/ salted and frozen fish.6 Export of dried/salted seafood has followed a sinusoidal pattern during last two decades. About 19,964 tonnes of dried/salted seafood was exported in 1991 and after reaching a maximum figure of 26,247 tonnes in 1993 has now dropped to less than 10,0007 tonnes. Export of frozen seafood has also followed a similar pattern whereby 8,021 tonnes8 of frozen seafood was exported in 1991. In 2006, over 86,000 tonnes of frozen seafood was exported, however, exports fell below 70,000 tonnes in 2010.9 Graphs below illustrate seafood exports from Pakistan for the last two and half decade:

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Figure 2: Year-wise Export Quantity and Value of Frozen Seafood11


CHALLENGES ASSOCIATED WITH PAKISTAN FISHERIES

Deep Sea Fishing Policy

Federal Government enjoys overall constitutional responsibility to maintain and preserve sustainable fisheries beyond territorial water i.e. 12 NM.12 According to Pakistan Deep Sea Fishing Policy, foreign-flagged vessels can be granted a license to undertake fishing expedition in Pakistan’s EEZ. However, according to UNCLOS, foreign-flagged vessel can be allowed access to resources within coastal state EEZ if its resources are surplus and cannot be fish by its own fishermen. Pakistan Deep sea fishing policy issued by Ministry of Maritime Affairs in 2009 restricts foreign-flagged vessels to undertake fishing in Zone-3 as mentioned above. Earlier issued deep sea fishing policies and in absence of any such restriction of zones, foreign-flagged vessels freely operated in country’s EEZ and have resulted in eradication of a number of species. Recent stock assessment report of Pakistan EEZ suggests reducing fishing effort by at least 50% to rebuild lost resources and no more licenses be issued to foreign vessels for the preservation of fishing resources.13

Size of Fishing Fleet

The size and outlook of Pakistan’s fishing fleet has changed after the mechanization of boats. Now, fishing boats are making longer trips as compared to past thereby increasing overall catch effort. As per recent Fisheries Resource appraisal of Pakistan, the current size of fishing fleet is around 18000 vessels as depicted in Figure 3 below.14 Moreover, due to incomplete registration of fishing boats operating in Pakistan EEZ, an exact number of boats still remains uncertain.15

Fishing vessels up to 100 GRT (Gross Register Tonnage) are allowed to fish within 12 NM from the coast with duration of fishing trip less than 30 days.16 However, the majority of fishing fleet is regularly observed fishing out of 12 NM with duration of trip averaging 40-45 days and sometimes as long as 60-70 days.17 Owing to increase fishing effort by large fishing fleet resulting in low-quality catch and practical eradication of numerous species from Pakistan’s EEZ, immediate reduction in the fishing fleet by 50% is essential.18


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Figure 3: Growing Fishing Fleet

Size of Fishing Nets

In order to understand fishing nets, it is considered prudent to understand few types of fishing practices in Pakistan’s EEZ.

• Gillnetting

Gillnetting is undertaken by placing a net in a manner that it acts as a wall and hangs in the water column as depicted in the illustration:19

Figure 4: Gillnetting

• Bottom Trawl.

A bottom trawl is a type of fishing method that traps and catches target species, such as groundfish or crabs, by trawling along the bottom of the sea as illustrated:20


Figure 5: Bottom Trawling

Current cod end size of fishing net with zero net eye clearance does not allow even a small pencil to pass through it. Thus, this has resulted in huge loss to fishing industry as every single boat returning from the sea is carrying 80-90 tonnes of juvenile fish that ultimately lands in poultry meat and fishmeal processing plants.21 It is estimated that only 2-3 tonnes of human consumable fish are brought during each trip by fishermen. Moreover, over 200 trucks of the juvenile are supplied to fish/poultry meal industry daily from Karachi fish harbour.22

Although, Government of Sindh and Balochistan have made legislation on size of the net allowed for fish trawl and shrimp trawl i.e. fish trawl net cod end not less than 55 mm and shrimp trawl net cod end not less than 25 mm; however same has not been implemented in true letter and spirit.23 Three famous nets commonly known as Gujjo, Katra and Bhulo in local language by fishermen are among the deadliest fishing gear and are a major source of concern for the policymakers.24 Another reason identified for use of banned fishing nets by fishermen is that a general practice exists among meal producing industries to directly purchase juvenile (or trash fish as it is called by fishermen) from fishermen.25 This practice is against the globally adopted procedure for sale/ purchase of juvenile whereby fish harbour/fish landing point management is bypassed. In order to save juveniles and enhance the quality of fish, globally poultry and fish meal production is undertaken by using alternate means and use of juveniles is banned.

Registration/ Licensing of Boats

Provinces, as well as Mercantile Marine Department (MMD) under Ministry of Maritime Affairs, are undertaking registration of


boats, yachts and other vessels. Despite having stringent SOPs for inspection of the boat and its crew health/ training, a large number of boats with poor hygienic conditions and adverse physical conditions are registered. On an average, a newly constructed boat after registration lives for 25-30 years in the fishing fleet. However, minimal number of boats qualifies this criterion based on physical condition; notwithstanding, they are still being used by boat owners for fishing even during the monsoon period.26

A mechanism is missing whereby new licenses are issued after 100% registration of boats is complete, allowing better visibility on size of fishing fleet, available resources in EEZ that can be exploited to avoid overfishing and cancellation of boats licenses outlived their life and not fit for fishing at sea. Moreover, strict control on issuing licenses will not only improve fishing industry but at the same time will deprive a lot of illiterate and poor fishermen of their source of livelihood. In this regard, provision of an alternate source of livelihood to fishermen is essential and concerted efforts by both Federal as well as Provincial government is mandatory.

Illegal Unreported Unregulated Fishing (IUUF)

Illegal fishing is conducted by national or foreign vessels in water under the jurisdiction of a state, without the permission of that state, or in contravention of its laws.27 Whereas, undeclared fishing refers to unreported or misreported fisheries to the competent national authorities in violation of national laws and regulations. Fishing in a manner that weakens the efforts undertaken by fisheries regulatory authorities to preserve the marine species and ecosystem is regarded as unregulated fishing.28

IUUF is a major factor in overfishing and it is estimated that current annual IUUF losses worldwide are between US $ 10 billion and $ 23.5 billion equating 11 – 26 million tonnes of fish.29 UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) asserts that the main cause of IUUF is lack of control over EEZ by respective coastal state.30

IUUF is gradually transforming itself into organized crime whereby many countries while owning vessels under the flag of convenience and crew from different countries are even able to sell their catch in international markets in US, EU and Japan despite


strict regulatory controls.31 In Pakistan EEZ, IUU fishing is being done in following three different categories:

IUUF by Deep Sea Fishing Trawlers

Although no license has been issued for deep sea fishing by Government of Pakistan,32 Ministry of Maritime Affairs after 2006, however, still certain number of foreign trawlers is reported to be engaged in illegal fishing.

IUUF by own Fishermen

Own fishermen authorized to undertake fishing within Zone-1 i.e. within 12NM from coast regularly violate territorial limits and undertake fishing in Zone-3. Besides, using banned fishing nets and selling fish catch at sea is common practice. It is estimated that owing to use of banned nets and violation of fishing zone limits, almost 65,000-70,000 kg of juvenile shrimp is caught every day and used for fish meal and poultry meal industry leading to a huge loss on account of foreign exchange and seafood exports.33

Poaching by Indian Fishermen

Poaching by Indian fishermen along Sindh coast has become a consistent practice. Owing to disturbed ecosystem off Gujrat coast, climatic changes and depleted fish stocks, Indian fishermen have moved up and regularly undertake fishing in Indus Delta region. Poaching by Indian fishermen has adversely affected Pakistan fisheries as every month more than 600 boats enter Pakistani EEZ resulting in per month revenue loss of Rs. 2 billion.34

Environmental Degradation – Endangered Biodiversity

Being the hub of economic activities and industrial zones in Karachi, there is a sharp increase in population and industrial wastes. It is estimated that more than 470 million gallons of effluents are dumped into the Arabian Sea daily leading to collapse of ecosystem and adversely affecting the quality of fish.35

Another important aspect of environmental degradation is decline in mangroves forest. Mangroves act as first line of defence


against coastal erosion and hatchery for shrimp, lobster and fish larvae. In Pakistan, mangroves forest are largely found in areas off Sindh and Makran coast. However, due urbanization and land reclamation activities off Karachi coast, mangrove forests have been affected adversely. Generally, one hectare of mangroves can yield annually 100 kg of fish, 25 kg of shrimp and 15 kg of crab meat.36

Aquaculture

United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization define aquaculture as farming of aquatic organisms, including fish, molluscs, crustaceans and aquatic plants.37 Though worldwide aquaculture has transformed into a leading industry, however, in Pakistan it is still in infancy and underdeveloped sector. According to the latest estimates, the total area covered by fish ponds across all provinces is about 60470 acres with Sindh having 49170 acres, Punjab 10500 acres, KPK 560 acres and around 240 acres in Balochistan & Azad Jammu Kashmir.38 As a thumb rule, 1 acre farm can yield 1 tonne of fish, however, some fish farm owners in Punjab while using better practices have produced as high as 6 tonnes of export quality shrimps/ fish.39

Despite having more than 1000 km long coastline, no concrete efforts have been undertaken by neither Federal nor both Provincial governments of Sindh and Balochistan to promote marine aquaculture. Figure 6 below shows the total aquaculture growth in Pakistan:

Figure 6: Total Aquaculture Production (in tonnes)- Pakistan40


IMPACT OF 18TH AMENDMENT AND FISHERIES MANAGEMENT

Subsequent to the 18th constitutional amendment in Pakistan in the year 2010, management and monitoring of fishing within territorial waters of the country is now responsibility of respective provinces. Federal government exercises rights over fishing beyond territorial waters till limits of EEZ. However, current available resources in both provinces are not being managed adequately. Same is evident from the ban imposed by EU. Large number of unregistered boats, unhygienic conditions at the fish harbour, lack of training and awareness, use of illegal nets and lack of political will and resolve to revive fishing sector are cited as some reasons. Various stakeholders involved in fisheries sector of Pakistan are:41

• Marine Fisheries Department • Export Promotion Bureau • Ministry of Commerce• Korangi Fish Harbour Authority • Fisheries Department, Government of Sindh• Karachi Fisheries Harbour Authority • National Institute of Oceanography • Fishermen’s Cooperative Society• Pakistan Seafood and Industries Association • Sindh Trawler Owners and Fishermen Association Karachi • Trawler and Boat Owners Group• Fisheries Department, Government of Balochistan• Gwadar and Pasni Fish Harbour• Marine Mercantile Department (MMD)

After the 18th constitutional amendment, Ministry of National Food Security & Research has been established in lieu of Ministry of Food and Livestock (MINFAL) by Federal government. This ministry is responsible to prepare policies to promote fisheries sector and the introduction of scientific methods. However, yet new fishing policy and introduction of scientific methods are awaiting promulgation. Notwithstanding despite dedicated Ministries in both provinces for Fisheries, the appointment of


Fisheries Development Commissioner as a representative of Federal Government at Karachi, there exists a severe lack of coordination, conflict of interests and absence of cohesion in efforts towards addressing core issues of fisheries sector.

Closed Season for Fishing

In Pakistan, monsoon period i.e. June and July are closed season for fishing. However, over a period of time fishermen are not observing this close season and remain engaged in fishing.42 This has not only affected our ecosystem and quality of fish but at the same time has resulted in overfishing. Main reason identified for non-adherence to instructions of a closed season for fishing is non-availability of alternate source of income with fishermen.43 In the absence of financial support from Federal as well as Provincial governments to fishermen, fishermen are forced to undertake fishing trips even during monsoon.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Corrective Measures at Grass Root Level

It is an established fact that the maritime sector is a specialized field and requires specialized people to manage and administer this sector. Besides numerous hurdles in Government machinery, lack of awareness among masses, absence of resolve and political will are contributory factor towards our failure as a nation in taking benefit from this huge blessing available in form of sea and coastline.

Appointment of specialist individuals with appropriate background and educational qualification is the first step in right direction. It is envisioned that corrective measure at grass root levels such as more pronounced role by Ministry of Maritime Affairs and its staffing by individuals with sufficient experience in maritime sector will help in avoiding total collapse of this sector and transform straggling maritime sector into leading industry.

Bifurcation of Regulators and Policy Makers

In the current setup of regulators and policymakers sitting


under one roof, true implementation of long term and short term policies will remain an Achilles heel. In order to accrue true benefits from fishing sector, it is considered prudent to have a clear distinction among regulators and policymakers. This will not only allow preparation of policies independent from external influence but also break the nexus of regulators with decision makers for personal gains.

Capacity Building

Critical analysis of reasons for decline of fisheries sector reveals that our fishermen are still relying on decades-old fishing techniques, poorly maintained fishing platforms, unhygienic storage conditions for fish, lack of education and training and above all absence of awareness to follow international and local laws for fishing. The absence of alternate source of income has also resulted in increased fishing fleet. In order to resolve this core issue, it is opined that capacity building of fishermen be undertaken in following domains:

• Provision of easy loans/grant to own better fibreglass built boats.

• Installation of adequate fish preservation mechanism.• Training and provision of fish finders for enhanced yield.• Provision of fishing nets of size as approved by respective

provincial governments to avoid overfishing and catch of juvenile fish.

• During monsoon period, fishermen be provided stipend money by respective provincial governments as compensation to keep them away from sea.

• Regular monitoring of the health of fishermen and boats as desired by EU standards.

Stringent Control over Poultry and Fish Meal Industry

Though poultry and fish meal industry is one of the leading industries of Pakistan and is earning significant foreign exchange, however, this is being achieved at the cost of losing big markets of EU, Middle East and other export destinations.


In order to avoid selling juveniles to industrialists, there is a need to break the nexus between boat owners and industrialists. Worldwide production of poultry and fishmeal from juveniles fish is avoided and use of other means such as soya etc. is being preferred. The raw material in the form of juvenile fish is a prime mover for these industries and strict control over raw material will ultimately help in curtailing liberty of action of this industry.

Redefining Role of Pakistan Maritime Security Agency (PMSA)

PMSA Act 1994 provides legal powers to officers and men to enforce laws regarding fishing, customs, narcotics and marine environment at sea. With the induction of latest platforms and equipment, capacity of PMSA has enhanced manifolds. However, there is a visible gap in policies being formulated by Federal and Provincial governments and its regulation/ monitoring and implementation at sea. A huge number of Indian fishermen regularly poach inside Pakistan EEZ, banned nets such as Gujjo, Katra and Bhulo are being openly used by Pakistani as well as Indian fishermen. Selling of fish catch at sea to a third party and unauthorized fishing by foreign vessels inside Pakistan EEZ is also common.

It is opined that there is a need to review methodology adopted by PMSA to enforce Government laws vis-à-vis operation of its air and surface platforms at sea. Enforcement of law at sea is a continuous job and merits more presence and inspection of vessels. Moreover, selling/auction of Indian boats and nets in Pakistani markets shall be discontinued with immediate effect to control the size of fleet and avoid overfishing.

Export of Value-added Sea Food

Pakistan’s Sea Food export industry is mere relying on raw fish, shrimps and other seafood items. These items are subject to stringent inspections and quality control. In absence of value-added seafood exports in today’s competitive market, space for Pakistan fisheries is reducing in international market. It is therefore considered imperative that change in techniques and marketing of own seafood in international market will earn dividends for us.


Reduction in Fishing Fleet and Registration of Boats

In order to preserve fishing resources in our EEZ and revival of fishing industry, it is opined that fishing fleet size may be reduced by at least 50% and registration of fishing vessels be undertaken on priority to determine exact fishing effort being generated in our EEZ. Reduction in fishing effort will help in the rejuvenation of resources and produce quality fish for both domestic as well as for export purposes.

Installation of Vessel Monitoring System (VMS)

In order to track fishing vessels operating in own EEZ, monitoring fish catch from every vessel, increasing the effectiveness of PMSA and avoiding intrusion by illegal fishermen in own waters, equipping own fishing fleet with VMS is considered mandatory. Pakistan being a signatory to Indian Ocean Tuna Commission (IOTC) Resolution 15/03 adopted in 2015 is required to install VMS system on board fishing vessels greater than 15 m in length.44 Moreover, EU45 and FAO46 have also made installation of VMS mandatory for all fishing vessels.

Reduction in Marine Pollution

In order to protect fish species and marine life from pollution, it is considered prudent that solid and liquid waste treatment plants be installed and direct flow of effluents in sea be completely forbidden. Stringent SOPs be formulated to impose heavy fines on discharge of oil bilges/wastes in harbour by ships. Moreover, mangroves plantation be undertaken in creeks area and along the coast to protect marine environment and marine life.

Marine Aquaculture

Currently, no marine aquaculture exists in Pakistan, however, with the implementation of lucrative policies and benefits, local as well as foreign investors may be invited to this sector. It is opined that Provincial government policies in this regard need to be reviewed and immense potential in this sector may surpass the overall marine fish catch, if handled in scientific ways.


National Fishing Policy

National Fishing Policy was last published in 2007. A lot of changes have occurred in Pakistani waters w.r.t ecology, environment, climate, fish resources and biodiversity. Moreover, globally adoption of new technologies for fishing sector has been made compulsory by various authorities and countries such as US, EU, FAO, IOTC etc. There is a need to review existing fishing policy and in light of FRAP stock assessment report and multidimensional challenges associated with fishing industry, new National Fishing Policy be promulgated.

CONCLUSION

Pakistan has been blessed with colossal maritime resources, but this needs to be understood that these resources are finite and merits adequate protection and preservation. It is of extreme importance to realize that country’s fishing industry is transiting through the lowest ebb of its existence and if corrective measures are not taken, it may lead to complete collapse. Though it appears that Pakistan’s annual fish catch is following a steady trend, it is to be realized that with remaining 30-35% of fish stock in our waters and no efforts to protect this sector, soon country may lose annual US $ 300-350 million contributions in its economy.

Countries such as India, Bangladesh, Vietnam and China are leading the fishing industry and while adopting systematic and methodical approach to promote this sector, today fishing industry of these countries have become cornerstone of their economy. In order to transform Pakistan’s fishing industry into a leading component of our economy, a complete overhaul is required. There is a need to adopt wholesome approach to take on this challenge and revive the country’s fishing industry.

NOTES & REFERENCES

1 Gunter Pauli, The Blue Economy, Paradigm Publications, New Mexico, 2010. Belgian entrepreneur Gunter Pauli has coined the term Blue Economy.

2 Paul Fanning et al., “Fisheries Resources Appraisal in Pakistan,” Comprehensive Assessment of Pakistan’s Marine Fisheries Resources to 2015 (Rome, Italy: Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations and Marine Fisheries Department Government of Pakistan, 2016), 1.


3 Ibid.4 Mrs Rukhsana Asghar Director Marine Fisheries Sindh. Interview by author. Karachi,

November 19, 2017.5 Mr Wasim Khan DG Marine Fisheries Department. Interview by author. Karachi,

November 22, 2017.6 Mr Faisal Iftikhar CEO Fisheries Development Board. Interview by author.7 Muhammad Mohsin et al., “Contribution of Fish Production and Trade to the

Economy of Pakistan,” International Journal of Marine Science 5, no. 18 (March 19, 2015): 3, https://doi.org/10.5376/ijms.2015.05.0018.

8 Ibid., 5.9 Ibid., 6.10 Ibid., 4.11 Ibid., 5.12 Fishing and Fisheries beyond the Territorial water is placed in the Federal Legislative

List, Fourth schedule, Part 1, clause 36 in the Constitution of Islamic Republic of Pakistan.

13 Paul Fanning et al., “FRAP,” 156.14 Ibid., 12.15 Mrs Rukhsana Asghar Director Marine Fisheries Sindh. Interview by author.16 Government of Sindh, Livestock & Fisheries Department: Notification, Muhammad

Memon. SO(Fish)/11(27)/L&F//07, Karachi, November 19, 2007.17 Mr Sohail Akbar Shah Secretary Livestock and Fisheries, Government of Sindh.

Interview by author. Karachi, November 19, 2017.18 Paul Fanning et al., “FRAP,” xxiv.19 “Fishing Gear – Gillnets”, accessed January 12, 2018,

https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/national/bycatch/fishing-gear-gillnets20 “Fishing Gear – Bottom Trawls”, accessed January 12, 2018

https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/national/bycatch/fishing-gear-bottom-trawls21 Mr Asad Rafiq Chandna DG Ministry of Maritime Affairs. Interview by author.

Karachi, November 20, 2017.22 Mrs Rukhsana Asghar Director Marine Fisheries Sindh. Interview by author.23 Government of Sindh, Livestock & Fisheries Department: Notification, Dr Laiq

Ahmad. 5(3)SO(Fish)/L&F/2012, Karachi, 31 May 2012.24 Mr Wasim Khan DG Marine Fisheries Department. Interview by author.25 Mr Faisal Iftikhar CEO Fisheries Development Board. Interview by author.26 Mr Akbar Qazi Director Fisheries Baluchistan. Interview by author.27 Commodore M Afzal DDG PMSA, “IUUF & Countering the Threat of Poaching,” in

Development of Fisheries Sector-Analysis of Issues and Formulation of Strategies (National Maritime Seminar 2010, National Centre for Maritime Policy Research: Bahria publisher, 2010), 112.

28 Ibid., 113.29 Agnew DJ et al. (2009) Estimating the Worldwide Extent of Illegal Fishing. PLoS ONE


4(2): e4570. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.000457030 “Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated Fishing (IUUF)”, Food and Agriculture

Organization of United Nations accessed January 13, 2018, http://www.fao.org/fishery/iuu-fishing/en

31 Commodore M Afzal DDG PMSA, “NMS 2010,” 113.32 Mr Asad Rafiq Chandna DG Ministry of Maritime Affairs. Interview by author.33 Mr Wasim Khan DG Marine Fisheries Department. Interview by author.34 Cdr Ghazi Salahuddin PN, interview by Lt Cdr Tahir, November 22, 2017.35 “Almost 472m gallons of sewerage dumped in Arabian Sea daily: official”, Public

Accounts Committee, accessed January 13, 2018, https://www.dawn.com/news/1309227/almost-472m-gallons-of-sewerage-dumped-in-arabian-sea-daily-official

36 Mr Babar Khan Regional Head (Sindh and Baluchistan) WWF-Pakistan. Interview by author.

37 “Definitions,” accessed January 17, 2018, http://www.fao.org/docrep/003/x6941e/x6941e04.htm.

38 “FAO Fisheries & Aquaculture - National Aquaculture Sector Overview - Pakistan,” accessed January 17, 2018, http://www.fao.org/fishery/countrysector/naso_pakistan/en.

39 Cdre (R) Obaidullah. Interview by author. Karachi, November 18, 2017.40 “FAO Fisheries & Aquaculture - National Aquaculture Sector Overview - Pakistan.”41 “Marine Fisheries Sector in Pakistan.Pdf,” accessed January 18, 2018, http://www.

irispunjab.gov.pk/StatisticalReport/Manufacturing%20Industry%20Data/Marine%20Fisheries%20Sector%20in%20Pakistan.pdf.

42 Cdr Ghazi Salahuddin PN. Interview by author.43 Miss Zainab Afzaal Deputy Director Balochistan Fisheries Gwadar. Interview by

author. Lahore, November 15, 2017.44 “Resolution 15/03 On the Vessel Monitoring System (VMS) Programme | IOTC,”

accessed January 20, 2018, http://www.iotc.org/cmm/resolution-1503-vessel-monitoring-system-vms-programme.

45 “Vessel Monitoring System (VMS),” Text, Fisheries - European Commission, September 16, 2016, https://ec.europa.eu/fisheries/cfp/control/technologies/vms_en.

46 “FAO Technical Guidelines for Responsible Fisheries,” Fishing Operations, Vessel Monitoring Systems (Rome, Italy: UN FAO, 1998).

19

ANALYZING THE EVOLVING DEFENCE COLLABORATION BETWEEN PAKISTAN AND RUSSIA

Major Tipoo Awan PA*

ABSTRACT

International alliances around the globe are being redrawn based on dynamic interests of the nations. The international

political system is witnessing the collapse of the unipolar world with the resurgence of Russia. Simultaneously, Pakistan

has finally been able to rid itself of US influence like never before and is striving to diversify its relations, learning from the mistakes committed previously. This evolving

global environment coupled with mutual interests between Russia and Pakistan has brought them closer, resulting

in unprecedented breakthroughs especially in the defence sector; an area holding tremendous scope for expansion

and enhancement. In this context, the paper will discuss the opportunities of defence cooperation between Russia and

Pakistan. Moreover, the historical background of Pak- Russia relations and the converging interests of the two nations

with regards to the region in general and defence industry, in particular, will also be deliberated. Pak-Russia relations have never been cordial in the past and the resurgence of

common interest will further solidify bilateral relations but this development is bound to be slow and full of impediments which will also be pondered upon in the paper. In the end, the way forward in Russo- Pakistan defence collaboration will be enunciated and certain recommendations to enhance these

prospects will be put forward.

Keywords: alliances, international political system, unipolar world, global environment.

_________________*Major Tipoo Awan was commissioned in Artillery Regiment of Pakistan Army in 2000. He is graduate of Command & Staff College, Quetta Class of 2012. The author has held various appointments; 2I/C as well as Staff Officer in Divisional Artillery Brigades. He has also served in UN Mission in Darfur, Sudan. Author is a graduate of 47th Pakistan Navy Staff Course of Navy War College.


INTRODUCTION

Pakistan’s relations with USSR have been somewhat acrimonious. From the very start, Pakistan’s open and overt alignment with the US antagonized the Soviets. And this continued through the latter part of the 20th century until recently when Russia and Pakistan moved closer. The realignment has been result of interests and changing geo-strategic compulsions. Both sides can benefit from the recent thaw in relations. In this respect, defence collaboration between the two states will surely receive a boost. But the possibility of this collaboration will be filled with obstacles and baggage of history; however, with consistent and astute handling, it is still realisable. Given that Pakistan Armed Forces’ dependence on US military equipment is increasingly susceptible to distrust and uncertainty besides a penchant for India, hence diversifying relations will bode well for Pakistan. It is thus, of paramount significance to enhance defence collaboration with Russia and explore avenues to reduce dependence on US equipment.

HISTORY OF PAK-RUSSIA RELATIONS

The history of Pak-Russia relation is a dismal tale of misperceptions and lost opportunities.1 Bilateral relations between the two nations can be divided into following distinct phases:

Joining US-Backed Alliance

Bilateral relations of Pakistan and Russia have largely remained unpromising despite the absence of direct differences between the two-state.2 Amidst the catastrophic episode in the early years of independence, Pakistan was in dire need of financial support to handle its economic and military issues thus opted to jump onto the US-sponsored bandwagon and became a member of SEATO in 1954 and CENTO in 1955.

Cold War Era

Pakistan ’s tilt towards the western bloc was not seen as a welcome move by the USSR as cold war alliances were made to contain the spread of communism in the world. However, some noteworthy cultural and industrial exchanges took place like granting most favoured nation status to one another in 1956, a bilateral trade agreement and Russia’s provision of aid for Pakistan’s agriculture sector. A serious blow to the efforts to normalize relations was the U-2 spy plane incident in May 1960. This phase of lesser hostilities vanished in 1971 with overwhelming Russian military support to India which proved substantial to the dismemberment

Analyzing The Evolving Defence Collaboration Between Pakistan and Russia 21

of Pakistan. In 1979, as the Soviet Red Army walked into Afghanistan, Pakistan spearheaded the movement to support Afghan Jihad and such events transpired that eventually led to the disintegration of Soviet Union.3

Post-Cold War

In 1989, Russian ambassador to Pakistan offered help in installation of a nuclear plant in Pakistan; however, it was cancelled after US intervention. A major breakthrough came in September 1995 when Russia agreed to supply military hardware to Pakistan but again this offer went cold. In 2001, just before September 11 attacks, ISI Chief Lieutenant General Mahmood visited Moscow for finalizing a deal for Russian Mi-17 helicopters.

Post 9/11

In August 2002, a bilateral Consultative Group on Strategic Stability was created to deal with regional stability and bilateral cooperation. However, despite this, defence collaboration was not brought under consideration until 2006 when Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Pakistan. It was agreed to jointly fight terrorism and cooperation in defence was also agreed upon, making it a landmark development. In 2009, 2012, 2013, 2015 and 2018, COASs visited Russia while in 2013, Russian Army Head visited Pakistan. A new opening in the relationship was provided by Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu’s visit of Islamabad in November 2014.4 During this period, the deal of four Mi-35 helicopters was approved which was pending since 2009. More recently, in the wake of Ukrainian crisis and US/ European sanctions, Russia began to re-evaluate its policies in South Asia, expanding relations with Pakistan.5 Defence collaboration took a step further in September 2016 when the first-ever joint Army exercise took place after two joint naval exercises in 2014 and 2015.6 In March 2017, a delegation of the Russian army, led by DCGS General Israkov Sergi Yuryevich, visited FATA and were briefed on Pak Army’s CT efforts.

Missed Opportunities

• Instead of following a better option of maintaining neutrality, joining of US-backed alliances caused a fundamental division in Soviet- Pak relations in the early 1950s.

• Pakistan had no independent policy towards Soviet Union – at least till end of the cold war and always saw USSR through the prism of U.S. or Indian angles.


• Opportunities presented by a temporary thaw in the bilateral relations, like Tashkent Agreement, Russian help in construction of Pak Steel Mills and offer of Missile Boats, were not taken advantage of.

• Dismemberment of Pakistan in 1971 and the important role played by Russian Military aid to India worsened the relations.

• Pakistan’s leading role in Afghan Jihad and its direct link with disintegration of USSR is something Russians will not forget easily. Our policy of throwing all eggs in one basket was fundamentally flawed.

• 1990s witnessed status quo in bilateral relations as neither country endeavoured to establish good relations.

• Post 9/11 period the changing geopolitics brought Pakistan and Russia closer and relations have become more stable and steady in the present millennium.

CONVERGENCE OF INTERESTS

The geopolitical environment, which is ever evolving, can even bring hostile nations together based on the convergence of national interests. After a protracted period of ill-conceived policies, Pakistan has taken a right step by re-evaluating its policy towards Russia and establishing cordial bilateral relations, hastened by the unexpectedly quick convergence of mutual interests. The upward trend in the overall convergence of interests ultimately affected the defence collaboration resulting in major breakthroughs in ensuing paragraphs.

Pakistan should capitalize on this unique convergence of interests while avoiding the mistake of taking a lopsided approach. The least Pakistan can learn from its diplomatic history is to revamp its approach towards Russia in diplomatic, economic and military domains without antagonizing US.

Russian Interests

• Afghan Imbroglio & its Spillover Effect on Central Asian Republics (CARs)

One of the primary concern of Russia is to preserve security in Afghanistan which has a profound bearing upon the Central Asian Republic states (CARs). Russia has expressed a keen interest to cooperate with Pakistan in terms of building a defence capacity around Afghanistan so as to curtail the proliferation of unrest from Afghanistan into surrounding areas and ultimately to Russian borders. Moreover,


the presence of NATO troops is a source of concern for Russia and the leadership is striving for peace and stability in Afghanistan so that its backyard is cleared of foreign troops presence.7

• Access to Ports Round the YearDespite being a major power, geography has been cruel to

Russia since it is almost landlocked. Over the last 200 years, Russian strategists have been trying hard to seek access to warm waters.8

• Counter US InfluenceRussian President Vladimir Putin has sought to strengthen

regional organizations to counter US influence particularly in Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO); a monumental initiative in which Pakistan also stakes.9

• CPEC - Gateway for Eastern Bloc Russia has shown its desire to utilize CPEC and especially the facilities of Gwadar port. This comes at a time when Russia is facing economic hardships/ sanctions from the West. Russia can get a guaranteed opening to the Indian Ocean through the Arabian Sea. Linking Russia and CARs to the port of Gwadar10 will boost up economic growth of Pakistan.

• Thaw in Indo- US RelationsIndia is leaning towards US in all spheres. Since 2011, the US has

surpassed Russia as a top military vendor to India. Between 2011- 2014, India imported US $ 13.9 billion in military equipment from the US and only US $ 5.34 billion from Russia; such unravelling developments perturbs Russia due to the legacy of mutual relationships it had with India.11

Pakistan’s Interests

• Better Relations with an Emerging Power

Although Pakistan’s efforts against terrorism have received world-wide recognition but it has been criticized a number of times for its lacklustre approach. The US military and think tanks keep hurling allegations that Pakistan is complicit in supporting terrorists. This has pushed Pakistan to look for diversifying its relations with Russia.

• Diplomatic Support Pakistan can utilize Russian support in Kashmir dispute and


remove biases in UNSC for tilting the balance in own favour. Moreover, it can also garner Russian support for getting an entry in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).12

• Pakistan’s Defence Requirements. Russia lifted ban on providing military hardware and weapons to Pakistan in 2014. This paves way for defence deals. High ranking military officials of both countries have initiated visits in interests based domains.

• Bilateral Exercises A group of Russian troops conducted a joint military exercise in Pakistan from September/ October 2016. Being the first ever military exercise, it became a stepping stone towards future joint inter-services level exercises. Pak Navy ships have commenced port visits to Russia and vice versa.13

PROSPECTS, SCOPE AND IMPEDIMENTS

Prospects & Scope

• Pakistan’s Defence RequirementsAlthough Pakistan has gradually attained a reasonable level

of indigenization in defence hardware, however, there still exists a pressing requirement to induct cutting-edge technology from other countries because of multiple reasons like the economy, modern technology and diversification.

• Alternatives of Military Equipment As against relying on US which has mostly placed conditionalities or else stopped arms exports to Pakistan all together on several occasions, developing defence relationship with Russia gives Pakistan’s alternative sources of acquiring military equipment which is cheaper as well. Despite the fact that the main suppliers of arms and defence equipment are China, USA and Turkey, Pakistan in recent years has avoided depending on one or two majority foreign suppliers in an effort to diversify.14

• Familiarization with Russian Equipment Russian and especially Chinese equipment (based on Soviet technology) have been used by Pakistani armed forces. Therefore the equipment can be easily absorbed as there is no issue of familiarization.


• Cooperation in Cyber Domain Russian expertise in cyber warfare is well known which is the new frontier in warfare and has become an active element of national security. Once again it is necessary to explore specific areas for technical cooperation in this field.

• Scientific and Technological Cooperation Both countries need to cooperate in science and technology. Space agencies of both countries i.e. Roscosmos State Cooperation for Space Activities and SUPARCO are already having an agreement to work together towards the peaceful exploration of upper space. In fact, both agencies jointly launched Pakistan research satellite in April 1999. Pakistan should seek joint research and human resource training along with development of infrastructure to launch both commercial and military based satellite stations.15

• Cooperation in Counter-Terrorism & Intelligence Sharing Pakistan is one of the few nations to successfully defeat the menace of terrorism and therefore has gathered exceptional experience. Russia on the other hand, though not directly affected by terrorism to such an extent recognizes the prospect of such threats to its internal security as well as regional security. Moreover, counter-terrorism efforts require coordinated intelligence work. Thus, Pakistan emerges as an influential player in the regional context and a useful partner for Russia in counter-terrorism efforts.

• Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG) Membership Russian is an influential player in the NSG and has been persuaded by India not to back Pakistan’s entry. As relations between Pakistan and Russia get stronger, Pakistan must consider convincing Russia for its membership. This sensitive issue will require careful handling by the government in terms of finding an opportune moment to put this matter on the table with Russia.

Specific Areas of Defence Cooperation

Some specific areas of defence collaboration are enunciated in the succeeding paras:

• Advanced engine for JF-17 combat aircraft.• Attack and transport helicopters. • Air refuelling pods for IL-78 acquired from Ukraine.


• SU-35 fighter aircraft.• High-precision weapons, artillery, air defence systems specifically

S-300 / 400 AD missile system.• Russian small arms.

POSSIBLE IMPEDIMENTS TO PAK-RUSSIA RELATIONS

Owing to numerous complex and interconnected factors, the complete normalization of relations between Russia and Pakistan will not be without impediments and Pakistan must tread very carefully on this path. Some of the impediments are discussed below:

• Indian Influence Due to lasting partnership that India and Russia had been sharing since the 1960s, India exercises sizeable influence on Russia. One of the biggest markets for Russian military hardware is India. Russian interests in India have been substantial and hence understandable. However, India’s growing ties with US, specifically in military domain, would play a pivotal part in Russian moves of making friendly advances to other counterweights in the region.15 Although Russo-Pakistan relations are on an upsurge with the defence deal and joint exercises, India has shown ample resentment against this and will continue to exert influence in this regard for some time. According to a former Indian diplomat “It is this strong decades-old partnership that makes recent Russia-Pakistan defence pact hard to digest”.16

• Bitter Memories It should be kept in mind that incumbent Russian military leadership joined or was in formative years of their service in the late 1980s when their country disintegrated partly because of Afghan jihad; something that is bound to take time to fade away. Given the historically hostile Russo-Pak relations and these bitter memories, normalization of relation in defence collaboration to a level we envision will take time.

• US Influence on Pakistan US-Pakistan relations can be deemed as of . Both have been allies since Pakistan’s independence but both have a huge trust deficit. They have witnessed immense ups and downs in the last 70 years and whenever they seem to get a consistency and stability they go off-rail.17 Having said that due to the key interests, both are bound to be in cooperation with each other on issues and US will continue to have a certain level of influence on Pakistan of which Russia has always been


wary.18

RECOMMENDATIONS

In view of the findings and conclusions drawn during the course of study, the following recommendations are offered:-

Procurement Of Specific Equipment: 19,20,21

• Tanks Pakistan has been operating Russian based T-80 UD tanks which is a formidable military machine. Although Pakistan has attained a reasonable level of self-sufficiency in the production of tanks nonetheless, cutting edge technology by Russia can be of immense value and must be explored.

• EW Technology Pakistan’s National Radio Telecommunications Corporation has shown interest in the Russian EW equipment. This project must be pursued to improve this force multiplier for Pakistan Army.

• Helicopters Russian gunship and transport helicopters have proven their worth globally. The arrival of Mi 35 helicopters from Russia could lay the basis for future collaboration to address Pakistan’s ageing fleet of attack and transport helicopters.

• Small Arms (SAs) Russian Small Arms is exceptionally rugged and durable. Pakistan should look into possible purchase SAs including pistols, assault rifles and snipers from Russia. This may be in the form of an initial purchase followed by a ToT between POF and Russian manufacturers.

Collaboration in the Field of Missile Defence System

In the last few years, Pakistan has filled the gap in its AD systems by inducting E-SHORADS and LOMADS. HIMADS however, are still a weakness in our system. Russian S 300/ 400 can help us in filling that void and this avenue can also be tapped in the possible future deals.

TOT and Spares for Aged Inventory

Russia can be very helpful in the provision of spares and ToT for


a relatively large inventory of Russian hardware including T Series tanks, assault rifles, artillery guns and helicopters in Pakistan Army.

Cooperation in Space Technology

Space program in Pakistan has always been ignored. Pakistan can explore the viable opportunity for development of space stations and launch pads from Russia. Moreover, access to existing satellites will enhance situational awareness and intelligence gathering to a marked limit.

Training of Officers and Troops

Exchange of officers and troops of both armies should be started for professional military courses for mutual understanding and cooperation.

CT & Intelligence Sharing

Because of peculiar issues and environment, Russia and Pakistan have amassed massive experiences against SCW, guerilla warfare and CT and both countries can mutually benefit from these experiences by incorporating them in joint exercises and training. In this regard, intelligence sharing can be a huge benefit. Both countries, therefore, should devise a mechanism for intelligence sharing and coordination.

Air Force

Pakistan and Russia can collaborate in local production and maintenance of JF-17 firefighter engines. They are already in talks over the acquisition of advance Russian jets and related R & D which will take due course of time. However, when concluded, this acquisition would set the stage for future bilateral defence cooperation in the air industry.

Navy

Russian naval equipment is time-tested and their platforms hold immense firepower. Collaboration for purchase/manufacturing of various platforms needs to be carried out. Coast Guard and maritime exploration are other areas where collaboration must be pursued. Moreover, joint exercises should continue to be held and the Russian Navy should be invited for Aman exercises.


CONCLUSION

The road to long-lasting deep relations with Russia, especially in defence collaboration, will be full of impediments and needs a carefully planned and craftily implemented diplomatic manoeuvre. Recent Russian military joint exercises with Pakistan Armed Forces are a stepping stone for expansion in future. Moreover, Russian consent to sell most advanced combat helicopters to Pakistan is a testament to the mutual level of confidence. This can be further exploited with a careful and adept handling of affairs. At the same time, Pakistan must not get overzealous; neither should we expect results within days. The opening of good defence relations with Russia should be aptly and judiciously exploited to increase our leverage and diversify our relations. At the same time, we must keep our channels open with other states in line with our national interests.

NOTES & REFERENCES

1 Arshad Mahmood and Umar Baloch, Enhancement of Russian Interests in South Asia during Putin’s Era, Faculty of Contemporary Studies, NDU, 2013.

2 Muhammad Owais, “Pakistan-Russia Relations: Economic and Political Dimensions,” in Pakistan Horizon 60, no. 2 (April 2007): 126.

3 Sarafraz Khan and Noor Ul Amin, “An Overview of Pak-Soviet Russia Relations,” in Central Asia, ISSN 1729-9802.

4 Mark A Smith, Russia’s Relations with India & Pakistan, Conflict Studies Research Centre UK, August 2004.

5 Aqil Rehan. “Pakistan– Russia Relations and Future Prospects.” NDC Journal December 2014.

6 Dmitriy Frolovskiy, “What’s Behind Russia’s Rapprochement With Pakistan?” The Diplomat. May 14, 2016, http://thediplomat.com/2016/05/whats-behind-russias-rapprochement-with-pakistan/.

7 Dawn, 17 September 2002, 9 June 2006, 12 Nov 2014, 6 August 2013, 30 March 2017.8 Ibid.9 Ibid.10 Ibid.11 The Nation, 17 November 2006.12 Amin, Tahir. “Pakistan-Russia Relations and the “Unfolding New Great Game” in South

Asia.”, 2016.13 Ibid.14 Amin, Tahir. “Pakistan-Russia Relations and the “Unfolding New Great Game” in South

Asia.”, 2016.15 Khurram Abbas, ”Russia’s revival opportunities and Limitations for Pakistan”,IPRI, Feb

2106,


16 Petr Topychkanov, “Deep military cooperation between Russia and Pakistan threatens Delhi,” October 11, 2016.

17 Sam LaGrone, “US Edges Out Russia to Become India’s Largest Military Equipment Vendor,” United States Naval Institute (USNI), News, August 13, 2014, https://news.usni.org/2014/08/13/u-s-edges-russia-become-indias-largest-military-equipment-vendor

18 Rama Lakshmi, “India and U.S. deepen defense ties with landmark agreement”, 30 August 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/india-and-us-deepen-defense-ties-with-landmark-agreement/2016/08/30/2e7e045b-e3c3-49ff-9b2c-08efaa27b82b_story.html

19 Mateen Haider,”Pakistan and Russia sign landmark defence deal”. DAWN, Aug 2105,, http://www.dawn.com/news/1201473

Vermont Hewitt, The New International Politics of South Asia: Second Edition (Manchester and New York: Manchester University Press, 1997), 83

20 Jhinuk Chowdhry, “India watched warily as Russia deepens ties with neighbours,” 10 Jan., 2015, https://www.rt.com/op-edge/221411-russia-relations-india-military-economy.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/india-and-us-deepen-defense-ties-with-landmark-agreement/2016/08/30/2e7e045b-e3c3-49ff-9b2c-08efaa27b82b_story.html



https://www.rt.com/op-edge/221411-russia-relations-india-military-economy

31

INDIAN BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENCE PROGRAMME AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN

Lt Cdr Usman Zafar TI(M) PN*

ABSTRACT

Indian Ballistic Missile Defence (MDP) programme, which started in the year 2001, has progressed well over the years.

India considers its BMD as defensive in nature which is essentially required to mitigate the risks associated with

NFU policy. Indian BMD is however predominantly status driven - aimed at projecting India as global power through

demonstration of the cutting-edge technology. This research work has endeavoured to realize the effects of Indian BMD development, on Pakistan nuclear deterrent, by studying it in conjunction with ever-growing conventional asymmetry

between Pakistan & India and adoption of CSD/ PAO strategy by India. Research has revealed that BMD is, in fact,

detrimental to nuclear deterrence and strategic stability between India and Pakistan as it may induce a false sense of security in Indian leadership thus encouraging them to act

with belligerence during crises. Despite the fact that it is not foolproof, it may encourage India to pre-empt by undertaking

counterforce targeting strike on Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal with an assumption that India will be able to defend itself,

using BMD, against Pakistan’s limited 2nd strike. Furthermore, it has been argued that Indian BMD bolsters India’s CSD/

PAO strategy and creates a room for limited war.

Keywords: Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD), nuclear deterrence, strategic stability, Cold Start Doctrine (CSD), Proactive Operations

(PAOs).

__________________________

Lt Cdr Usman Zafar TI (M) was commissioned in Weapons Engineering (WE) Branch of Pakistan Navy in 2003. He holds Bachelors degree in Avionics Engineering from College of Aeronautical Engineering and a Master’s degree with distinction in Telecommunications from Military College of Signals. As an Air Engineer by profession, the author has held appointments as an Air Engineering Officer of 222 ASW Squadron. He is a recipient of Best Engineer Trophy and Sword of Honour from PAF Academy Risalpur. Author is a graduate of 47th Pakistan Navy Staff Course of Navy War College.


INTRODUCTION

India, while pursuing its policy of non-alignment, always opposed the idea of Ballistic Missile Defence, prior to 2001. In July 2000, Indian Foreign Minister, while commenting on US plan for National Missile Defence programme (NMD), remarked: “the US should give up this whole exercise as it will lead to far too many problems than we can visualize now”.1 However, Indian government took a policy U-turn, after the US unilaterally withdrew from Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty in 2001, and became the first nation to publically endorse US announcement of building NMD. India also exploited this opportunity to start its own BMD programme, initially, under the name of “Defence for Delhi” project2 which has been able to achieve sufficient success over the years.

INDIAN BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENCE (BMD) PROGRAMME

Indian BMD is a two-tier system whereby the first tier constitutes Prithvi Air Defence (PAD) system and the second tier constitutes Advance Air Defence (AAD). PAD is meant to intercept the incoming missiles in exo-atmospheric range (50-80 km) whereas AAD system neutralizes incoming missiles in endo-atmospheric range (up to 30 km).3 India is pursuing its BMD programme in two phases. The first phase aims to engage the missiles fired from a range of 2000 km whereas the second phase intends to engage missiles having ranges till 5000 km.

Since the inception of BMD project, DRDO had carried out a number of tests highlighting the successes in the domain of missile defences. The first test was carried out in November 2006 of PAD system followed by December 2007 test of AAD interceptor missiles. Then again in March 2009, DRDO claimed to have successfully carried out missile interception. In 2012, DRDO Chief V. K. Saraswat claimed to have successfully completed the first phase of BMD project by stating: “The ballistic missile defence shield is now mature……We are ready to put Phase-I in place”.4 He further added that BMD shield was ready to protect two Indian cities i.e. New Delhi and Mumbai.

In addition to PAD, DRDO has been working on more advanced interceptor missile, under the project ‘Prithvi Vehicle

Indian Ballistic Missile Defence Programme and Its Implications for Pakistan 33

Design (PVD)’, capable of engaging the incoming missiles at an altitude of above 150 km. It also houses an infrared seeker to distinguish between actual warhead and decoys. A recent test of PVD was carried out on 12th February 2017.5 PVD is destined to replace PAD in two-tier BMD configuration. Similarly, latest testing of AAD interceptor missile was carried out on 1st March and 28th December 2017.

In pursuit of its indigenous BMD programme, India had been acquiring latest BMD components from US, Russia, Israel and France as well. The most notable out of these is Swordfish radar which is derivative of Israeli Green Pine radar capable of detecting and tracking missiles at long ranges. It is known to track over 200 targets simultaneously at a range of 600 – 800 km. The DRDO further plans to extend the range of Swordfish radar up to 1500 km.6 India has also acquired Fire Control radar from France and missile Seekers from Russia. To further enhance her surveillance capability deep inside Pakistan, India inducted 3x Phalcon Airborne Early Warning Command and Control Systems (AWACS) between 2009-11. Moreover, DRDO plans to integrate its missile defence shield with an array of geostationary satellites in order to monitor missile activities within a radius of 6000 km.7

EFFICACY OF INDIAN BMD

Despite DRDO’s claim of fully deployable BMD in 2012, the operationalization of BMD shield over Delhi and Mumbai is still awaited. This has in fact created doubts with regard to the efficacy of BMD. These doubts are further strengthened with DRDO not releasing any test parameters of BMD interceptors for analysis by independent experts. It is believed that DRDO’s test under controlled and simulated environment may not prove system’s capability in the actual threat environment. Even if DRDO’s claims are taken credible, a successful BMD can never guarantee 100% interception. Moreover, BMD development is a very costly business. The US continental BMD system is estimated to have spent about US $ 100 billion from 2002 to 20128. Though Indian BMD is limited in scope and functionality but still requires a huge sum of money.

Notwithstanding the huge cost and partial efficacy associated with Indian BMD, it can still be very detrimental to


nuclear deterrence and strategic stability in South Asia because of psychological effects associated with it. Despite being not foolproof, it is feared that BMD may induce a false sense of security in Indian leadership thus encouraging them to act with belligerence during the crises. It may encourage Indian decision makers to carry out pre-emptive or decapitating strike against Pakistan with a calculation that it has sufficient defences against Pakistan’s limited second strike. Hence, BMD may not be offensive itself but it can encourage Indian leadership to be offensive which is detrimental to nuclear deterrence and strategic stability between Pakistan and India.

INDIA’S MOTIVATION FOR BMD

India claims that its BMD development is primarily driven by its security needs based upon its threat perception. India considers both Pakistan and China as potential adversaries9. It alludes that Pakistan growing missile arsenal especially Tactical Nukes in the form NASR missile risks its security. Similarly, China’s modernization of its forces in general and nuclear delivery system, in particular, concerns its security.

Though India claims its BMD to be security driven, however, the analysis reveals that it is predominantly status driven. India’s shift from its policy of non-alignment in 2001 and endorsing US missile defence system was primarily due to the reason that US offered strategic partnership to India which Indian leadership considered beneficial not only to meet its defence & economic needs but also to support her desire for global power projection. Strategic partnership with the US has provided India much needed access to modern cutting-edge technology essentially needed to pursue ambitious projects such as BMD. Development of BMD has allowed India to join an elite group of four nations (US, Russia, Israel and China) who have been able to develop missile defences up till now. Hence, BMD is a practical manifestation of India’s aspiration to project herself as a global power through demonstration of the cutting-edge technology. However, what India is not realizing that its status driven approach, towards developing technologies such as BMD, is detrimental to Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent and may lead to an unending nuclear arms race in the region.


INDIAN BMD - DOCTRINAL REQUIREMENT OR A LUXURY?

An important tenet of declared Indian nuclear policy is commitment to ‘No First Use (NFU)’. India adopted this principle of NFU so as to project herself as a responsible nuclear state that will never initiate a nuclear conflict unless it is attacked by another nuclear state using nuclear or chemical/biological weapons. However, Indian establishment, as well as most of the Indian scholars, considers that NFU carries with it a substantial amount of risk. They argue that India has modest number of nuclear warheads. In case of First Strike by Pakistan, it might lose most of its nuclear weapons and may not be left with an adequate number of weapons to conduct a massive retaliatory strike. Similarly, survivability of command & control setup together with Indian political leadership, during the first strike, is considered important to take decisions in a time of crises. In such a situation, BMD provides adequate defences against enemy’s disarming strike thus ensuring survivability of nuclear forces, command & control setup and political leadership to mount a punitive strike. Therefore, India considers BMD as a defensive tool which is a doctrinal requirement, not a luxury10.

IMPLICATIONS OF INDIAN BMD ON NUCLEAR DETERRENCE

Analysis has revealed that exact effects of Indian BMD, on nuclear deterrence between Pakistan and India, can only be realized once it is seen in conjunction with growing conventional asymmetry between India & Pakistan, India’s CSD/ PAOs strategy and India’s on-going technological developments as part of its grand nuclear strategy. In this regard, the following arguments merit consideration:

• India is the only nuclear state in the world which is pursuing an aggressive conventional warfighting doctrine, under the concept of CSD/ PAO, against another nuclear state. PAO strategy was developed to wage limited war against Pakistan while remaining under the nuclear threshold. The cornerstone of this strategy is a conventional asymmetry between Pakistan and India. However, Pakistan was able to effectively deter CSD/ PAOs by introducing low yield TNWs, against the conventional threat, under the overall strategy of Full Spectrum Deterrence. Now, with development of BMD,


it is considered that India is once again trying to create a space for limited war under CSD/ PAO concept. Hence, it is deduced that BMD augments CSD/ PAO and create room for India to exploit conventional asymmetry by imposing a limited war, thus it is detrimental to nuclear deterrence and strategic stability.

• As part of its grand nuclear strategy, India is endeavouring hard to achieve counterforce targeting capability through development of MIRV11 technology together with a nuclear-capable hypersonic cruise missile. Since counterforce targeting is typically used for pre-emption or massive first strike, hence, India may opt to pre-empt while considering that it can protect itself from a limited second strike using a missile shield. These on-going Indian developments have also led to a heated debate among the nuclear scholarly circles that India may be shifting from its declaratory NFU policy. Though India has not acknowledged it officially, a former high-level Indian official in his published memoir suggested: “India would consider nuclear first use in a third circumstance, as a pre-emptive counterforce attack if India has a reason to believe that Pakistan is preparing a first strike against it”12. This threat of disarming first strike coupled with BMD may promote “Use it or Lose it” dilemma within Pakistani establishment in case of crises thus further lowering the nuclear threshold and effecting nuclear deterrence negatively.

• India already has assured Second Strike capability in the form of SSBN; hence, developing BMD to safeguard Indian nuclear missiles for assured second strike seems like a weak argument.

• One of the benefits of BMD technology is that it will provide dividends in conventional as well as satellite technology development. In a conventional domain, it may provide enhanced surveillance capability to Indian conventional forces in the form of long-range detection & tracking radars/ sensors, thus further broadening the conventional asymmetry between the two countries. As a result, Pakistan reliance on nuclear weapons will further increase which is detrimental to strategic stability.

• As already mentioned BMD may encourage India to pre-


empt or wage a limited war against Pakistan under PAOs concept. To cater the threat of pre-emption especially during crises, Pakistan may opt to change the posture of her nuclear forces from de-alert nuclear forces and demated warheads to high alert nuclear forces and mated warheads. This high state of preparedness of nuclear weapons may increase the risk of inadvertent or accidental launch.

• Though India considers BMD as a doctrinal requirement but it never included the role of BMD in its declared nuclear doctrine. Similarly, no document has ever been published defining the specific roles & objectives of BMD in India’s overall nuclear strategy. Hence, by not defining the exact role & tasks of BMD, India has further strengthened the apprehension that BMD can be used in an offensive role.

• India may be developing anti-satellite weapons (ASAT) under political cover of BMD as interceptor missiles for BMD can easily be adapted to engage satellites.

BMD & NUCLEAR ARMS RACE

Indian BMD has triggered a new arms race between Pakistan and India. To counter Indian BMD, Pakistan has already diversified its delivery system by developing nuclear-capable cruise missiles, MIRV-capable Ababeel missile and TNWs. As India will further expand and mature its BMD, this arms race will further intensify However, Pakistan being a weaker economy, has to very intelligently choose as to what all new technologies it should build to offset the advantages gained by Indian BMD. Pakistan should not make the same mistake which Russia did during the cold war by indulging in an extensive arms race with USA which ultimately drained her economy and resulted in the disintegration of USSR.

OPTIONS FOR PAKISTAN TO COUNTER INDIAN BMD

Apart from diversification of delivery systems (MIRV, cruise missiles, TNWs), the best option for Pakistan is to pursue both qualitative and quantitative enhancements to its existing delivery systems and nuclear warheads. In a qualitative domain, Pakistan should actively pursue countermeasures which can deceive BMD by improving the penetration capability of Pakistani missiles. This


includes employment of stealth technologies to reduce detection probability of warheads from BMD radars and interceptor missile seekers. Other qualitative options may include decoy warheads, chaffs & flares, manoeuvrable warheads, jamming, thermal shielding etc. In quantitative domain, Pakistan should endeavour to increase its arsenal of nuclear warheads as well as the delivery system. The purpose of quantitative increase is to saturate the Indian BMD with more missiles than its maximum interception quantity.

With regard to the development of own missile defence system, it is considered that probability for development of any such technologies, at least in near future, is very rare owing to Pakistan’s limited research/ technological base and huge cost involved. Similarly, acquiring missile defence system from US, Russia or China is also a rare possibility owing to exorbitant cost as well as strategic implications in case of US and Russia. Though in the recent past, Pakistan military has shown interest in the acquisition of Russian S400 missile defence system13.

CONCLUSION

Research has concluded that development of Indian BMD is impinging upon nuclear deterrence and strategic stability between Pakistan and India. Despite being not foolproof, it may induce a false sense of security in Indian leadership thus encouraging them to act with belligerence during crises. It has been further analysed that BMD may encourage India to pre-empt while undertaking counterforce first strike against Pakistan’s nuclear forces & C2 infrastructure with the assumption that BMD provides adequate defences against Pakistan’s limited 2nd strike or ragged retaliation. It is also argued that BMD bolsters India’s CSD thus creating a space for limited war under PAOs environment which is detrimental to nuclear deterrence and strategic stability. Moreover, apart from instigating a new nuclear arms race, it will further broaden the conventional asymmetry between the two nuclear states thus forcing Pakistan to further increase its reliance on nuclear weapons.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Following is recommended to enhance Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent in response to Indian BMD development:


• Pakistan should pursue qualitative (such as incorporation of decoys, chaffs, jamming, stealth features to its warheads) and quantitative (such as increased number of warheads and delivery systems) enhancements to its nuclear arsenals to defeat Indian BMD.

• In the long run, Pakistan should endeavour to build its own indigenous BMD system in collaboration with China.

• While new arms race has initiated with the introduction of BMD in the region, Pakistan must endeavour to build cost-effective countermeasures while maintaining its overarching principle of Credible Minimum Deterrence (CMD).

• Since India wants to exploit room for limited war through development of BMD, Pakistan must maintain its First Use option, under the overall strategy of Full Spectrum Deterrence, to thwart any Indian aggression at strategic, operational or tactical level.

• In addition to MIRV, Pakistan should endeavour to employ more sophisticated techniques such as Manoeuvrable Re-entry Vehicle (MaRV) on its missiles.

• Though Pakistan has recently tested Babur-III SLCM from a submerged platform, however, it should endeavour to acquire assured 2nd strike capability through acquisition of nuclear submarines to enhance its nuclear deterrent.

NOTES & REFERENCES

1 Rajesh Basrur, “Missile Defense and South Asia: An Indian Perspective,” The Impact of US Ballistic Missile Defenses on Southern Asia, 2001, 3.

2 Charles D. Ferguson and Bruce W. MacDonald, Nuclear Dynamics in a Multipolar Strategic Ballistic Missile Defense World (Federation of American Scientists (FAS), 2017), 11.

3 Zafar Khan, “India’s Grand Nuclear Strategy: A Road Towards Deployment Of Ballistic Missile Defence System,” Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad, 2016, 49.

4 “Missile Defence Shield Ready: DRDO Chief,” The Hindu, May 6, 2012, sec. National, http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/missile-defence-shield-ready-drdo-chief/article3390404.ece.

5 Franz-Stefan Gady Diplomat The, “India Successfully Tests Prithvi Defense Vehicle, A New Missile Killer System,” The Diplomat, accessed January 22, 2018, https://thediplomat.com/2017/02/india-successfully-tests-prithvi-defense-vehicle-a-new-missile-killer-system/.

6 Frank O’ Donnell and Yogesh Joshi, “India’s Missile Defence: Is the Game Worth the


Candle?,” The Diplomat, August 2, 2013.7 Zafar Khan, “India’s Grand Nuclear Strategy: A Road Towards Deployment of Ballistic

Missile Defence System,” Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad Vol. XXXIV No. 1, no. Winter 2015-16 (n.d.): 49.

8 Narayan Menon, “Ballistic Missile Defence System for India,” Indian Defence Review 27, no. 3 (September 2012).

9 Balraj Nagal, “India and Ballistic Missile Defense: Furthering a Defensive Deterrent,” 2.

10 Ghazala Yasmin Jalil, “Indian Missile Defence Development: Implications for Deterrence Stability in South Asia,” 31.

11 Debak Das, “Indian Ballistic Missile Defense and Regional Security,” 19.12 Alicia Sanders-Zakre and Kelsey Davenport, “Is India Shifting Nuclear Doctrine?,”

Arms Control Today, no. May, 2017 (n.d.): 28.13 Franz-Stefan Gady Diplomat The, “Will Pakistan Buy Russia’s S-400 Missile Air

Defense System?,” The Diplomat, accessed January 28, 2018, https://thediplomat.com/2017/02/will-pakistan-buy-russias-s-400-missile-air-defense-system/.

41

EMERGING REGIONAL FAULTLINES IN MIDDLE EAST AND ITS RAMIFICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN

Lt Cdr Muhammad Sumair Irshad PN*

ABSTRACT

The Middle Eastern region has plummeted into an unprecedented chaotic situation. The animosity and rancour

between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Iran has direct bearing on the security dynamics of not only the Middle

East but also on Pakistan. The nature of KSA and Iran rift is driven by economic & political competition rather than a

sectarian scuffle. Since the finalization of JCPOA (P5+1), Iran’s economy has witnessed an upsurge. The recent oil glut and

improving Iranian economic position has further aggravated KSA-Iran relations. Contextually, Pakistan is to prioritize

internal security situation in order to address external constraints while adopting a more balanced policy towards

distant friend KSA and next door neighbour Iran. Thus, to adopt National Action Plan (NAP) under the ambit of

National Internal Security Policy (NISP) holistically appears to be need of the hour in order to arrest myriad challenges.

Keywords: Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), oil glut, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), Iran, National Internal

Security Policy (NISP), National Action Plan (NAP)

________________________

Lt Cdr Muhammad Sumair Irshad was commissioned in Pakistan Navy in 2006. He has done his Bachelors in Electronics Engineering from Pakistan Naval Engineering College (PNEC). The author has held appointments as Principal Warfare Officer (PWO) onboard PNS BAHADUR, Above Water Warfare Officer and Operations Officer onboard PNS SHAMSHEER, Operations Officer onboard PNS SHAHJAHAN as well as remained attached with Commander Combined Task Force 151 at US NAVCENT. The author is a graduate of 47th Pakistan Navy Staff Course of Navy War College.


INTRODUCTION

Bilateral relations between KSA and Iran are dependent upon multiple factors posing clear bearing on the Middle East in general and Pakistan in particular. KSA and Iran rift is not sectarian but has economic undertones. Since the finalization of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and P5+1, Iran’s economy has seen an upsurge1 and occupied space in the international oil market.2 The recent oil glut and bolstering Iranian economic position has accordingly further aggravated KSA-Iran relations. Contextually, Pakistan is to prioritize internal security situation in order to address internal constraints while adopting a more moderate foreign policy towards KSA and Iran.

STRATEGIC CONTEXT

Power Politics in the Middle East - Fallout on Pakistan

The Middle Eastern region may well be characterized by two main attributes – power politics and oil, entailing world’s attention and reliance on this region. At the core of the rift are the economic and political ambitions principally dividing the region into two main blocs. These two blocs are distinguished by disparate ideology, cultural heritage with historical linkages, sectarian divide, monetary matters, and oil hegemony. Once these two blocs are analysed based upon caveats highlighted above, it may be deduced that there are mainly two players at the core of this power politics in the Middle East – Islamic Republic of Iran and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Bilateral relations of these two actors impinge directly not only on the Middle East but on Pakistan as well.

Pakistan, being sole Muslim nuclear power and possessing the Islamic world’s most capable military both, in terms of professionalism and technology, cannot avert the influence radiated by these two players. The influence is felt not at the military level but it strikes two other pillars of our society – politics and public sentiments (masses). Pakistan’s military is driven by merit and professionalism, not on sectarian or ethnic lines like most of the militaries of GCC countries.3 Hence fallout of the power politics between Iran and KSA is visible on our policy making and on our sectarian affiliations with either of the countries, one being our

Emerging Regional Faultlines in Middle East and Its Ramifications for Pakistan 43

next door neighbour and another distant friend.

• Geo-Political PerspectiveStrategic context of Pakistan’s foreign policy towards Iran

and KSA has long rooted historical perspective attached to it. Bilateral relations between KSA & Iran have come across two main crossroads since the creation of Pakistan; one after Iranian revolution of 1979 and another following signing of JCPOA or P5+1 agreement. JCPOA has made Iran economically strong leading to strong “latent”4 military power. The Iran-KSA led Middle Eastern bloc cast direct bearing on security environment of Pakistan. Post 9/11 events have shaped the global security environment with Pakistan being frontline state countering the menace of terrorism not only on the soil of our Western neighbour but ironically on our own land, whereby 70,000 people have lost their lives and the country has lost US $ 123 billion to the economy.5 Similarly, the rift between both Iran and KSA has rather manifested through sponsoring of proxies against each other. Syria (Iran supporting Government and Hezbollah fighters whereas KSA supporting Sunni rebels), Yemen (Houthis supported by Iran and pro-Mansur Hadi soldiers by KSA), Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iraq (Government inclined towards Iran6), Jundallah in Pak-Iran bordering areas being sponsored by KSA,7 Al-Qaeda and now ISIS are the proxies based conflicts which have linkages with corresponding nation sponsoring them for achieving their politico-strategic objectives.

• US Influence on Iran-KSA Bilateral RelationsThe latter half of the twentieth century has witnessed

pronounced impact of USA in the region after the withdrawal of British from the Middle East region. The US involvement is mainly attributed to offsetting communist expansion in the region.8 Though Saudi Aramco was formed in the 1930s, US was quick to realise the importance of oil with vested interests in KSA.9 However, the mainstay of US still rested in Iran. Post World War II Iran was a close ally of US, who guaranteed Iran that through political and military support, it was willing to make Tehran dominant player in the region. This also manifested the core of Iranian foreign policy at that time. This overt support


from US laid the foundation of Iranian Nuclear Program in 1953 when US President Eisenhower conceived Atoms for Peace initiative10. The decade of 1955-1965 was the period dominated by Shah’s quest for a nuclear weapon as a credible tool of deterrence against the Soviet invasion11. However, under the umbrella of CENTO,12 atomic research prospered in Iran. This period also saw Iran securing regional stature.

The foreign policy of Iran remained more accommodative for regional as well as extra-regional countries including Britain. The year 1977 proved to be a breakthrough once Iran entered into joint venture with Israel for a nuclear capable surface to surface ballistic missile system known as Jericho. However, this partnership code-named ‘Flower’ could not bloom13 much and Iranian Revolution of 1979 happened which utterly changed the landscape of security environment in the Middle East. By that time, US was endeavouring to achieve her “twin pillar”14 alliance between Iran and KSA, however, it never achieved official status. The only instance where prior to 1979, KSA and Iran had major difference was Iranian sovereignty claim over Bahrain. It is believed that by that time US was pushing Iran in her regional dominance and Bahrain move carried her tacit approval, as well.

• Post-1979 Revolution Iran and Divergence of InterestsRight after the Iranian revolution in 1979, the bitterness

between KSA & Iran was well characterized by difference of ideology, with both nations striving for “Islamic superiority”.15 Shia leadership under Ayatullah Khomeini and KSA embarked upon a contentious feud which is still at play. Post-1979, the estrangement is mainly attributed to dominance in the Islamic world. It may be analysed that the Iranian revolution of 1979 for the first time challenged Saudi dominance in the Islamic world. The era of rhetoric continued till 2003 and an overwhelming uncertainty was observed in the wake of US attack on Iraq. The rift during first decade of 21st century has been characterized more of economic rivalry, stemming from Iran and KSA’s role as a dominant supplier of oil and gas. The competition manifested itself within OPEC and had wider ramification at the economic level16.

The quest of Iran for nuclear weapon had further threatened


the regional position of KSA, who had been actively pursuing US to discourage Iran from nuclear development. Since then, the avenue of the rivalry has found its space in the shape of proxies. Growing isolation of Iran coupled with economic sanctions under the leadership of Ahmadinejad mounted economic challenges for Iran, this had adverse impact on economy in 2012 with -7.5% growth rate in GDP17. However, under Hassan Rouhani, Iran adopted an extrovert approach and became welcoming mainly due to mounting internal economic turmoil. The same approach led to the Joint Plan of Action (JPA), later refined into Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which eased Iran’s international diplomatic isolation18. Till date, Iran has been complying with the instructions of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)19 and has adopted an unprecedented approach once it comes to cooperation with the latter.

Regional Tinderbox: Iran’s Nuclear Program

Iran’s nuclear program faced severe international ramification especially from US in 2002, when Iran confirmed that it was building a uranium enrichment facility at Natanz and a heavy water production plant at Arak20. The perceived threat escalated significantly in 2010 when Iran began enriching uranium to 20% purity, which is relatively easy to enrich further to weapons-grade uranium (90%+)21. Another requirement for a nuclear weapon is a triggering mechanism that, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran researched as late as 2009. US and the allies had been positioning that Iran must not possess a nuclear-capable missile. Furthermore, Iran is a party to all major non-proliferation conventions, including the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)22 and the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC)23. Iran insists that it has adhered to all its commitments under these conventions, but international community asserted that it did not meet all its NPT obligations and that Iran needed to prove that its nuclear program is for purely peaceful purposes.24

ECONOMIC CONTOURS OF JCPOA FOR IRAN

Genesis of JCPOA

Iran’s nuclear program faced severe international backlash


especially from the US in 2002, when Iran confirmed that it was building uranium enrichment and a heavy water production plant.25. The perceived threat escalated significantly in 2010 when Iran began enriching uranium to 20% purity, which is relatively easy to enrich further to weapons-grade uranium (90%+).26 It is however widely argued that Iran’s nuclear program is still far from full-fledged fruition in terms of its mastery of the front and back end of nuclear fuel cycle technology.27

• Formulation of JCPOAOn July 14, 2015, Iran and six powers that negotiated with

Iran about its nuclear programme since 2006 (the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, and Germany—collectively known as the P5+1) finalized a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).28 JCPOA required restrictions to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program can be used for purely peaceful purposes in exchange for a broad lifting of US, European Union (EU), and United Nations (UN) sanctions on Iran. ‘Implementation Day’ was declared by P5+1 on January 16, 2016, representing the completion of Iran’s nuclear requirements; entry into effect of UN Security Council Resolution 2231,29 which endorsed the JCPOA; and the start of sanctions relief stipulated in the agreement.

Iran had severe economic challenges prior JCPOA due to sanctions in 2012 GDP Growth rate was -7.5%.30 UN enforced first sanctions in 2006, with enforcing fourth round of sanctions in 2010. EU in July 2012 boycotted Iranian oil exports. Crippled with these sanctions, the year 2012 was worst for Iranian economy with Iranian Riyal falling to its record low value. All broad economic contours of JCPOA alongwith timeline are as follows:31

Nov. 24, 2013

Joint Planof Action

JointComprehensivePlan of Action

UNSC Endorsement

AdoptionDay

ImplementationDay

TransitionDay

July 14, 2015 July 20, 2015

Up to 90 Days Up to 8 Years


• Sanctions Relief under JCPOAFollowing sanction relief was provided to Iran under JCPOA32:

US sanctions relief lifting or suspension of US sanctions on foreign firms that were in transaction with Iran in Energy, Oil and automobile sector. It also included relief in sanctions enforced since 1995.

EU lifted the ban on the purchase of oil and gas from Iran.

IAEA in its last monitoring report confirmed Iran as taking all actions as per the timeline of the agreement, in that Iran has become a most visited country by IAEA.33

OIL GLUT

OPEC and Oil Balance

Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)34 has been space shared by Iran and KSA both. OPEC had been maintaining35 oil price of US $ 100 / barrel ($100/b), however, after mid-2014, it fell to less than $50/barrel. Reason for decline in prices was principle of supply and demand. Entry of Iran in oil market post-JCPOA added additional 1 million barrels per day (mb/d)36. As of 2017, oil production by KSA was 10 mb/d and Iran producing 4 mb/d. Iran’s productions in 2014 was 3 mb/d37. Lifting of sanctions authorized additional 1 mb/d. Hence, as a result, Iran is expecting 15 Billion USD Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 2018 as per its new five-year development plan38.

As per OPEC World Oil Outlook39, Iran has plans to develop mainly a gas-based competitive petrochemical industry after lifting of international sanctions post-JCPOA. On another hand, KSA is also increasing its ethylene capacity which is set to serve her diversification programme to reduce dependence on oil being single commodity-based economy as per KSA government Vision 2030.40 Space of additional 1 mb/d captured by Iran has contributed to the already existing rift between KSA and Iran.

Iran under sanctions was hence more acceptable option to KSA. US and KSA also share the fear that main beneficiary of JCPOA


are likely to be the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps- Quds Force (IRGC-QF).

US PULLING BACK FROM JCPOA AND IRAN’S ECONOMY

Based upon the analysis whether US can pull out of JCPOA or not. “Not likely” argument is supported as it is a multi-lateral binding agreement with a UNSCR backing. However, Washington may pull out of JCPOA unilaterally should the US President decided through executive order following Congress approval. A memorandum in this regard has already been signed by President Trump on 9 May 2018.

As alluded earlier, since the implementation day, Iran’s economy has observed an upsurge. The peak period of decline of Iranian economy was 2011-2013. Since JCPOA has afforded Iran access to her frozen foreign reserves/ assets as well as her ingress into the oil market. IMF said “Iran’s oil production and exports rebounded quickly to pre-sanction levels. Increased activity in agriculture, auto production, trade and transport services has led the recovery in growth in the non-oil sector”41. In this regard, Iranian GDP rapidly evolved in 2016 to 12.5% as compared to -7.7% in 2012. It has further grown steadily by 3.5% in 201742. Hence, any reversal of JCPOA would mount economic challenges on Iran with sustained economic progression undergoing a setback. It is pertinent to highlight that Iran’s non-crude oil production has increased over the last 2-3 years.

ISLAMIC MILITARY COUNTER-TERRORISM COALITION (IMCTC) AND REGIONAL SECURITY PARADOX

Perpetual peace in the region while sidelining Iran is not possible. IMCTC without Iran as her member may not be able to achieve its strategic objectives. Though, General Raheel at times has gestured through Pakistani government that alliance is not anti-Iran but anti-terrorism yet coalition members are from Sunni-majority or Sunni-led countries. This is likely to deepen Shia-Sunni divide across the Middle East43. Pakistan does believe that the coalition is not yet active44 and is only in a broader sense to enhance cooperation, intelligence sharing and cutting the financial networks of the terrorist outfits. Moreover, Pakistan is


striking balance between Iran and KSA. The visit by Pakistan Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa to Iran in November 2017 was designated by Ministry of Foreign Affair (MOFA) as a breakthrough in this regard. It is therefore assessed that IMCTC, in order to resolve regional security paradox, must let go of the anti-Iran notion with superfluous influence from USA. This is the only way IMCTC may transform into an effective entity for promoting regional stability.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Recommendations are enumerated below:

• Pakistan must maintain a balanced foreign policy towards Iran and KSA keeping national interest as top priority. To manifest, visit by high-level delegations to both Iran and KSA be continued.

• Pakistan may continue to support the implementation of JCPOA as the official stance and may call upon all signatory states to honour their commitments.

• To offset the growing Indian influence in Iran and deny it space in Chahbahar, Iran may be persuaded to join CPEC.

• In order to arrest internal security challenges following may be considered:

Establishment of National Intelligence Directorate headed by ISI.

Chief of Army Staff may be made member of NACTA board.

Provincial dichotomies in NISP/ NAP be addressed on an immediate basis through the Council of Common Interests.

Fund allocation for counterterrorism efforts required under NAP through NFC award.

• Comprehensive policy may be issued by State Bank of


Pakistan in sync with NACTA and National Intelligence Directorate to choke the financial pipeline of religious seminaries through Hawala, Hundi and other tools of black economy.

• Regulation and registration of religious seminaries be accelerated.

• Political culture may be strengthened by prioritizing national interest and enhancing politico-military harmony to ensure that militancy is afforded no place in the society and a national narrative towards counter-terrorism is adopted.

CONCLUSION

A nation’s foreign policy has direct bearing on the formulation of national security policy. In the absence of any consensus between politico-military leadership, a documented foreign, as well as security policy, is far from reachable due weak political culture. Any space provided to KSA or Iran to manifest their rift in Pakistan would definitely be exploited. Syria and Yemen are witnessing the proxy play as a fall out of power scuffle between Iran and KSA. If Pakistan is unable to curtail the influence of KSA and Iran running deep down in the society, internal security challenges would continue to rise despite all the sacrifices made by armed forces to counter the menace of terrorism. Terrorism is to be eradicated from Pakistan and if it is believed that root cause is radicalization through religious seminaries, then it would eventually die down if the financial pipeline is blocked. The balance between next door neighbour Iran and distant friend KSA would be critical to maintain balance of power in the Middle East. Pakistan is believed to be the anchor of Muslim world, the only nuclear Islamic power with reckonable and valiant military. All elements of national power have to be institutionalized so as to harness the dividends of prosperity rather than merely becoming a tool of coercive diplomacy.

NOTES & REFERENCES

1 “Economic Implications of Lifting Sanctions on Iran,” Middle East and North Africa


Region Quarterly Economic Brief, (Washington DC: The World Bank Publishing Division, 2016).

2 Anthony H. Cordesman, “The Iran Nuclear Agreement and Iranian Energy Exports, The Iranian Economy and World Energy Market,” Data Estimation (Rhode Island: Centre for Strategic and International Studies, August 2015).

3 Kamal Alam, “The Pakistan Army and Iran: A New Dawn or a Messenger for the Saudis?”4 John J. Mearsheimer, “Structural Realism” and Tim Dunne, Milja Kurki, and Steve

Smith, eds., International Relations Theories: Discipline and Diversity, 3rd ed. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013), 3.

5 “Pakistan Suffers $123 Billion in Losses in War against Terrorism,” Daily Times, May 26, 2017, https://dailytimes.com.pk/9639/pakistan-suffers-123-billion-in-losses-in-war-against-terrorism/.

6 Bahauddin Foizee, “Iranian Influence Gives Saudi Arabia Heartburn,” International Policy Digest, December 11, 2016, https://intpolicydigest.org/2016/12/11/iranian-influence-gives-saudi-arabia-heartburn/.

7 James M. Dorsey, “The Middle East Will Only Get Worse,” Fair Observer, November 8, 2018, https://www.Fairobserver.Com/Region/Middle_East_North_Africa/Saad-Hariri-Saudi-Arabia-Iran-Hezbollah-Israel-War-World-News-43400/.; A widely quoted Bedouin apothegm is “I am against my brother, my brother and I are against my cousin, my cousin and I are against the stranger”. This clearly manifests the mindset and societal makeup of Bedouins.

8 Mohammad Homayounvash, Iran and the Nuclear Question, 8.”event-place”:”Abingdon Oxon”,”author”:[{“literal”:”Mohammad Homayounvash”}],”issued”:{“date-parts”:[[“2017”]]}},”locator”:”8”,”label”:”page”}],”schema”:”https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json”}

9 Simon Mabon, Saudi Arabia and Iran - Power and Rivalry in Middle East, 3.10 Mohammad Homayounvash, Iran and the Nuclear Question, 1–5.11 Abolfath Mahvi, Shah’s cousin and owner of Iran Nuclear Energy company (INECO)

convinced him to tow the line during his 1963 visit to US with his words, “Since the US president will not support your request for America to increase its purchase of Iranian oil that would, in turn, allow you to purchase more arms, why not consider acquiring nuclear weapons? It will reduce the need to purchase more sophisticated arms and military hardware and will add to Iran’s prestige among the international community”. This in turn had long lasting impression on the way Shah perceived the use of Atom.

12 Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) also known as Baghdad Pact.13 Mohammad Homayounvash, Iran and the Nuclear Question, 135.14 Simon Mabon, Saudi Arabia and Iran - Power and Rivalry in Middle East, 4.15 Ibid., 2.16 Ibid., 5.17 International Monetary Fund, “IMF Data Mapper - Real GDP Growth: Annual Percent

Change” (IMF, October 2017), http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD/IRN/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD/IRN?year=2017.

18 Kenneth Katzman, “Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies,” Research for Congressional Debate (Washington D.C.: US Congressional Research Service, November 7, 2017).


19 Director General IAEA, “Verification and Monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in Light of UNSCR 2231 (2015).”

20 In November 2006, the IAEA, at U.S. urging, declined to provide technical assistance to the Arak facility on the grounds that it was likely for proliferation purposes.

21 Kenneth Katzman & Paul K Kerr, “Iran Nuclear Agreement,” Research for Congressional Debate (Washington DC: US Congressional Research Service, 2017), 23.

22 The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, commonly known as the Non-Proliferation Treaty or NPT, is an international treaty whose objective is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, and to further the goal of achieving nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament.

23 The Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) is an arms control treaty that outlaws the production, stockpiling, and use of chemical weapons and their precursors. The full name of the treaty is the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling and Use of Chemical Weapons and on their Destruction and it is administered by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), an intergovernmental organization based in The Hague, Netherlands

24 Kenneth Katzman, “Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies,” 7.25 In November 2006, the IAEA, at U.S. urging, declined to provide technical assistance to

the Arak facility on the grounds that it was likely for proliferation purposes.26 Kenneth Katzman & Paul K Kerr, “Iran Nuclear Agreement,” Research for Congressional

Debate (Washington DC: US Congressional Research Service, 2017), 23.27 Mohammad Homayounvash, Iran and the Nuclear Question (Abingdon Oxon:

Routledge, 2017), xi.28 Iran & P5+1, “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA),” July 14, 2015.29 “United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231 (2015),” Security Council Resolution

(New York: United Nations, 2015), http://www.un.org/en/sc/2231/.30 International Monetary Fund, “IMF Data Mapper - Real GDP Growth: Annual Percent

Change” (IMF, October 2017), http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD/IRN/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD/IRN?year=2017.

31 Finalization Day: is the date on which negotiations of this JCPOA are concluded among the E3/EU+3 and Iran, to be followed promptly by submission of the resolution endorsing this JCPOA to the UN Security Council for adoption without delay.

Adoption Day: is the date 90 days after the endorsement of this JCPOA by the UN Security Council, or such earlier date as may be determined by mutual consent of the JCPOA participants, at which time this JCPOA and the commitments in this JCPOA come into effect.

Implementation Day: is the date on which, simultaneously with the IAEA report verifying implementation by Iran of the nuclear-related measures described in Sections 15.1 to 15.11 of Annex V, the EU and the United States takes the actions described in Sections 16 and 17 of Annex V.

Transition Day: is day 8 years after Adoption Day or the date on which the Director General of the IAEA submits a report stating that the IAEA has reached the Broader Conclusion that all nuclear material in Iran remains in peaceful activities, whichever is earlier.


UN Security Council Resolution Termination Day: is the date on which the UN Security Council resolution endorsing this JCPOA terminates according to its terms, which is to be 10 years from Adoption Day.

32 Kenneth Katzman & Paul K Kerr, “Iran Nuclear Agreement,” 19.33 Director General IAEA, “Verification and Monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in

Light of UNSCR 2231 (2015).”34 OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmental organization, established in Baghdad, Iraq,

on 10–14 September 1960. The Organization comprises 14 Members: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. The Organization has its headquarters in Vienna, Austria. OPEC controls 40% of the world’s supply of oil. The consortium sets production levels to meet global demand and can influence the price of oil and gas by increasing or decreasing, OPEC World Oil Outlook 2040.

35 “What causes oil prices to fluctuate?”, Investopedia, https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/012715/ -causes-oil-prices-fluctuate.asp

36 Anthony H. Cordesman, “Stability and Instability in the Gulf Region in 2016: A Strategic Net Assessment,” 62.”genre”:”Working Draft”,”event-place”:”Washington DC”,”author”:[{“literal”:”Anthony H. Cordesman”}],”issued”:{“date-parts”:[[“2016”,6,15]]}},”locator”:”62”,”label”:”page”}],”schema”:”https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json”}

37 US Energy Information Administration (EIA), “International Energy Statistics,” International Energy Statistics (Washington D.C.: US Energy Information Administration, January 28, 2018), https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/data/browser/#/?pa=0&tl_id=5-A&vs=INTL.57-1-AFG-TBPD.A&cy=2016&vo=0&v=H&start=2014&end=2016.

38 OPEC Secretariat, “World Oil Outlook 2040,” Forecast (Vienna, Austria: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, October 2017), 51, https://woo.opec.org/index.php/pdf-download.

39 Ibid., 156.40 “Vision 2030”, Government of KSA, accessed on 19 September 2017, http://www.

vision2030.gov.sa/en.41 “Iran’s Economy Improving ‘substantially’ in 2016/17: IMF,” Tehran Times, October

4, 2016, http://www.tehrantimes.com/news/407046/Iran-s-economy-improving-substantially-in-2016-17-IMF.

42 International Monetary Fund, “IMF Data Mapper - Real GDP Growth: Annual Percent Change” (IMF, October 2017), http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper//OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD/IRN?year=2017.

43 In Depth - Top Stories, “Saudi-Led Islamic Military Alliance: Counterterrorism or Counter Iran?,” DW News, November 26, 2017, http://www.dw.com/en/saudi-led-islamic-military-alliance-counterterrorism-or-counter-iran/a-41538781.

44 Doctor Muhammad Faisal, DG (South Asia & SAARC), Spokesperson Ministry of Foreign Affairs Islamabad, How Pakistan may play an active role in sorting out the security environment in Middle East especially in the backdrop of IMCTC., Question posed by Lt Cdr Muhammad Sumair Irshad during Briefing to 47 th PN Staff Course IST (North), November 6, 2017.

54

DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL TOURISM IN PAKISTAN PROSPECTS & WAY FORWARD

Lt Cdr Zahid Khan PN*

ABSTRACT

In today’s world, coastal tourism is a major source of revenue generation for the countries privileged with coastline. Pakistan having 1000 km long coastline is amongst the privileged nations blessed with natural as well as cultural resources essential for harnessing

the prospects for coastal tourism development. Unfortunately, despite having an abundance of coastal

tourism resources, socio-economic condition of the local populace could not be improved as local communities on the coast are still lagging behind. However, after a period

of relative calm and improving the security situation in the country besides initiation of China Pakistan

Economic Corridor (CPEC) project, coastal tourism seems to be gaining momentum. Development of coastal

tourism industry, by virtue of accelerated economic activity, has the potential to improve the socio-economic

conditions of the area along the coast.

Keywords: socio-economic growth, China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), coastline, cultural resource.

________________________

Lt Cdr Zahid Khan was commissioned in Marine Engineering Branch of Pakistan Navy in 2004. He holds BE (Mechanical) Degree from Pakistan Navy Engineering College (PNEC). The author has held various appointments as DMEO onboard MUNSIF, MEO SAAD & HAMZA and DM (Mechanical shop) Dockyard.

Development of Coastal Tourism in Pakistan Prospects & Way Forward 55

INTRODUCTION

As per United Nation’s World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), tourism is a rapidly expanding industry around the globe w.r.t GDP share and economic dividends it brings.1 At present, world tourism sector has more than 10% share in the global economy in terms of GDP and has created/ supported jobs up to 292 million (equal to 1 in 10 jobs globally). Rising graph of the tourism industry is likely to grow further in the future as well as it has been estimated that job creation by tourism sector will reach 380 million in 2027.2 In the phenomenal growth of tourism industry, coastal tourism has played a major role in recent times. For instance, in Europe alone, coastal tourism is the largest economic sector which employs up to 3.2 million people and coastal tourism in United Stated generates up to 85% of total tourism revenue.3 Moreover, as per the World Tourism Organization’s (UNWTO) statistics, 12 out of 15 world’s leading tourist destinations are bestowed with the coastline.4

Pakistan tourism industry’s present share in GDP is just 2.8% which is almost negligible as compared to average tourism GDP share of region i.e. in 2016 Pakistan’s tourism sector contributed US $ 7.6 billion in GDP against regional average GDP share of US $ 15.2 billion.5 Pakistan’s share in global tourism and South Asian tourism is just 0.09% and 6.7 % respectively.6 As per the Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index (TTCI) 2017 report, Pakistan’s overall ranking is 124 amongst 141 countries. Pakistan’s present standing as a tourist destination is far below in SAARC countries while being ahead of Bangladesh only in the South Asian region. Pakistan’s low ranking means that the country’s current performance is below average on most of the listed factors. Only 1.75 million foreign tourists travelled to Pakistan in 2017.7

GEOGRAPHY AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS OF PAKISTAN’S COAST

Pakistan is blessed with 1001 km long coastline extending from Pakistan-Iran border in West to the Pakistan-India border near Sir Creek in East. Approximately 30% (250 km) of the coastal area belongs to Sindh province while remaining approximately


70% (750 km) area comes under the control of Balochistan province. Population in coastal areas especially Makran coast is sparsely concentrated and suffers due to lack of basic health and concomitant facilities. Socio-economic conditions of the local population along the coast are abysmal with minimal literacy rate (up to 10%).8 Karachi being the biggest coastal metropolitan city has better infrastructure/ facilities thus coastal tourism activities along Karachi coast exist but at a small scale. Areas other than Karachi, are struggling for basic health and other social facilities. Thus it can be said that the tourism industry along Makran coast is almost non-existent as no official figure of tourists travelling for coastal tourism could be found.

Harnessing the tourism sector has been adopted worldwide as a viable strategy to improve the economic condition of the local populace, especially along the coastline. Coastal tourism has the potential to generate immense revenue with minimal investments. However, kick-starting the coastal tourism industry is the real task. Therefore, it is considered important to study the potential of tourism at our coast and key issues affecting its development and future challenges.

PROSPECTS OF COASTAL TOURISM IN PAKISTAN

Natural and Scenic Beaches (Beach Tourism)

There are more than 28 beaches available along coastline (19 beaches in Sindh and 8 beaches along Baluchistan coastline).9 Each beach has enormous potential in itself due natural beauty. People prefer clean and sandy beaches over national parks and history museum for recreational excursions. Beaches in Karachi are polluted to an extent due to domestic waste and factories disposal/effluents; however, beaches along Makran coast are free of marine pollution and unplanned construction. Clean and pollution free water of the beach offers attractive atmosphere and tremendous opportunities for developing avenues for beach tourism.

Religious & Heritage Sites (Cultural Tourism)

Many religious/ heritage sites available along the coast


constitute cultural resource of coastal tourism. Major sites include Hinglaj/ Nani Mandir, Lion of Balochistan & Princess of Hope (natural rock formation), Hingol National Park, Buzzi pass, rare WWII Museum in Jiwani, mud volcanoes and stunning views of Astola Island etc. Famous Hingol park spread over huge area along Makran coast has numerous birds and fish species and wonderful sights to enjoy. Similarly, migratory birds from across the world frequently travel to the area due to moderate climate condition throughout the year.10 Likewise, Nani Mandir is the Hindu religion’s oldest temple known as Hinglaj or shrine for grandmother and also attracts thousands of Hindus yearly. Similarly, Jiwani World War II museum and Victoria Hut are amongst number of such sites which can augment the coastal area tourism potential.11

Communication Network (Coastal Highway)

Communication networks are vital for growth of tourism industry. Approximately 650 km long two-way road from Karachi to Pak-Iran border known as Coastal Highway has reduced the travelling time from Karachi to Gwadar from days to hours and has boosted coastal tourism’s potential manifolds. Highway offers quick access to breath- taking and spectacular sites all along the coast like Princess of Hope, National Hangol Park, birds viewing on long beaches and many more.12

Harnessing Domestic Tourist Potential

About 80 million domestic tourists (inbound tourism) travel annually to different areas of Pakistan especially during May to August every year.13 Most of the domestic tourist travel to northern Pakistan due better infrastructure/facilities along with good publicity. Therefore, domestic tourists potential exist which can be exploited/ attracted towards coastal tourism through the development of infrastructure/facilities and awareness among masses.14

CPEC’s Potential of Coastal Tourism

With full operationalization of Gwadar Port along the coast in CPEC project, business activities are likely to expand manifold.


Large numbers of local and foreign businessmen are likely to influx to coastal area on regular basis. Therefore number of avenues are in place for development of coastal tourism industry along the coastal belt starting from Keti Bander to Jiwani as part of the CPEC master plan.15 Projects of coastal leisure and vacation centres across Keti Bander to Jiwani routes along with landmark hotels, golf courses, high-end nursing homes, race courses and a hot air balloon facility along coastal tourism city zones are also likely to be built as CPEC progresses.16 Similarly, a variety of projects in Gwadar, Ormara and Keti Bander are under consideration (like international cruise clubs for Gwadar, building unique recreational activities for Ormara and wildlife sanctuaries and botanical garden for Keti Bander).17 By establishing basic infrastructure facilities along the coast, Pakistan has the opportunity to develop coastal tourism and generate revenue.18

Cruise Ship Industry/ Cruise Tourism

Cruise tourism is an emerging trend especially amongst tourists of Asia because it offers variety of destinations with cheap packages.19 Increased economic activities along coast with leisure time coupled with popularity of the destination have made cruise industry an important investment avenue. Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA) North Asia chair Dr Zinan Liu said in 2016: “While we expected Asia to experience record-breaking growth in cruise travel, we are astonished at the rate at which the region is emerging as one of the most significant cruise destinations and cruise source markets in the world.”20 During recent years, cruise ship visiting Asian destinations have been enhanced than ever before.21 Tourists travelling through cruise ships in Asia have tripled to 3.1 million passengers since 2012 and China’s participation is highest up to two third of the total.22 Pakistan, due its coastal tourism resources and strategic location, may prove suitable cruise ship destination.

Sports Tourism/ Water Based Activities/ Adventure Tourism

Red Sea and Maldives are famous for scuba diving due availability of requisite facilities and clean water. Similarly, Austria and France have outstanding arrangement for ski sports and


likewise South Africa, Scotland and Portugal offer a lot regarding diving sports. Developing similar facilities like scuba diving and snorkelling facilities and other water sport near Astola Island etc. can enhance coastal tourism’s prospects. Attracting domestic tourists as well as foreign tourists interested in water-based or sports tourism or adventure tourism will be possible; however, high-class facilities are considered mandatory.

FACTORS AFFECTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL TOURISM

Short-Sighted Government Vision and Policies

After promulgation of the 18th amendment in the constitution of Pakistan in 2010, the subject of tourism was transferred from Federal government to Provincial governments. This hasty decision made without proper consultation with stakeholders has created a huge gap in coordination.23 Presently, there is no national organization which ensures proper international coordination, regulate quality standards in tourism and hospitality sectors, promote Pakistan as a tourism destination in international tourism market, ensure human resource development in Tourism Sector and coordination efforts of all the Provincial tourism organizations for harmonizing development and promotion of tourism.24 There is an immediate need to establish a National Tourism Board at a Federal level having representation of all the provinces and tourism trade organization in private and public sector to bridge this gap and revive tourism in Pakistan.25

Dilapidated Tourism Infrastructure

Basic infrastructure/ facilities availability near tourist sites play a vital role in the growth of tourism. In addition to the security situation, it is the key hurdle which affected coastal tourism development in Pakistan. Our coastline especially Makran coast lacks basic facilities like availability of hotels, fuel pumps, food & TUC shops and recreation places etc. Even today mobile services are not available along coastline. In order to really develop coastal tourism industry, tourist spots infrastructure/ facilities etc need to be addressed on priority.26


Security and Safety of Tourists

The overall growth of tourism industry in Pakistan has been widely affected due the security situation and terrorist activities after 9/11. Tragic Incidents like massacre of foreign tourists in Nanga Parbat, targeting of Mallala Yousafzai in 2012 and bomb blast in public places significantly reduced outbound tourist arrival during the last two decades. Even domestic tourists condensed their leisure visits due security concerns. As per estimate, Pakistan’s tourism industry loses up to US $ 50 million every year due dismal security situation or terrorist activities in the country.27 Presently Pakistan is marked as 4th most dangerous country for the tourist in the world.28 However, after successful operations like Zarb e Azab in 2014 and Radd ul Fasad till date, tourism growth graph of Pakistan has started improving and same is likely to continue in future as well.

Lack of Inter-Departmental Coordination

Tourism is a cross-cutting theme and is related to a number of other departments and ministries; such as environment and communication etc. However, all these ministries and departments keep working in isolation without taking into account the synergies which may be developed with tourism. This results in missing out on many opportunities through which tourism development can take place without incurring much cost. Enhancement of inter-departmental coordination will improve coastal tourism significantly.

Negative Image as a Tourist Destination

Pakistan’s image in the world has been tarnished largely due to the negative portrayal of security issues in the country. The law and order issues do exist in some areas of Pakistan; however, the reality is much better than the perception in the local and international media. Travel advisory reports are developed by the diplomats who rely only on the media and have no exposure to ground realities. This negative image becomes a strong barrier for the international tourists to travel to Pakistan and also discourages the domestic tourists from travelling.


Lack of Proper Marketing and Promotion (no Advertisement)

In spite of being blessed with very valuable tourist attractions, Pakistan has not been successful in developing itself into a popular tourist destination in the world. One of the key reasons for this has been the inability to take a structured approach for marketing and promotion; a failure in the art of presentation of our tourism industry to the world. There have been very insignificant activities carried out in this regard on local and/or international media. Pakistan has very rich natural, historic, archaeological, cultural assets at the coast which can very easily and quickly create a brand for Pakistan tourism. Many countries have successfully branded their tourism attractions and one of the best example is Incredible India a brand created by Indian tourism authorities.

Lack of Private Sector Investment in the Tourism Sector

At present, there is no involvement of private sector in coastal tourism industry. Similarly, public-private coordination is also very less. Neither public nor private sector is spending to enhance capacity and capability to attract and satisfy the international as well as domestic arrivals. In this regard, no legislation by govt is considered to be the biggest hurdle for financial investment in coastal tourism29. Investors will not involve till the time there is surety about their investment return. That surety is linked with proper legislation by Government as well as security situation.

Non Conducive Environment (Conservative Culture)

Pakistan is an Islamic state with a conservative culture, therefore liquor is not freely available in the country and the bars/ nightlife functions are strictly prohibited. Non-availability of alcohol in public averts a large number of foreign tourists visiting Pakistan. Similarly, the clothes that western tourists wear in summer also invite stares by locals. This gets worse when they travel to rural areas of Pakistan especially coastal area. Additionally, it becomes difficult for the host Muslim community- where majority population has a conservative disposition- to absorb these tourists.


Tourism Workforce Development (Trained and Skilled HR)

Well trained and skilled HR factor play a vital role in coastal tourism revenue generation. In the developed countries major focus is given to HR related tourism. Pakistan tourism industry lacks this aspect significantly which deprives industry real earnings. Role of skilled HR becomes critical once footprints of the tourism industry are established.

FUTURE CHALLENGES FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL TOURISM

Tourism is an environment-friendly industry. However, phenomenal unplanned expansions in the tourism sector over last few decades have caused negative impacts on the environment. Unplanned development causes loss of natural and cultural tourism resources and create environmental issues. Misuse of limited freshwater resources, reduction in bird/ fish species, lessening of forests and coral reef along the coast are relevant examples in this regard.30 Therefore, in order to minimize negative effect on environment/ resources, the need for sustainable tourism becomes absolutely essential. In development of sustainable coastal tourism in Pakistan following major challenges requires immediate attention;

Need for Long-Term Planning

Sustainability principle in tourism demands utilization of resources with long lasting approach. Sustainable tourism requires active planning and coordination among various sectors of the coastal zones. In fact, all the negative effects on environment leading to loss of tourism resources are the by-product of inadequate long-term planning. Proper planning while considering aspects of environmental issues forms the basis of sustainable tourism. Therefore all efforts need to be put in to undertake the development for coastal tourism in planned manner.31

Need for Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM)

Integrated coastal zone management is a concept for


sustainable development of coastal area by integrating activities in the areas. It provides the holistic approach for management of coastal resources viz a viz principle of sustainability. Therefore for efficient planning and coordination, ICZM becomes absolutely necessary. After the start of the CPEC project, our complete coast has been divided into five zones under tourism spatial structure. It is being described as the broad future roadmap for coastal tourism development. In tourism spatial structure (2+1+5), Karachi and Gwadar ports being two nodes, coastal belt as the one axis and important places on the coast has been divided into five zones (Ormara, Jiwani and Gwadar, Keti Bander, Sonmiani and Jhal Jhao).32

Environmental and Cultural Threats

Massive influx of tourist normally at small place cause marine pollution, water contaminations and deterioration of local infrastructure dedicated for environmental protection etc. As per the principle of sustainability, development and construction from the beach should be kept as far as possible. This help to maintain and preserve natural beauty of the coast.33 Precautions need to be taken for preservation of natural and cultural resources of coastal tourism in order to sustain it w.r.t future requirement.

HOW DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL TOURISM CAN BECOME A PRIMER FOR SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROGRESS IN THE COASTAL AREA?

Economic revenue generated through tourism forms the basis for socio-economic progress in the area. There are a number of places in the world where socio-economic conditions of the community have improved through tourism industry. Development of economies like Kerala state in India, Cox Bazar in Bangladesh and development of Maldives through coastal tourism are relevant examples in this regard.34,35 Even in our own country, northern area economy and social conditions have improved because of better tourism industry.36 Therefore, development of coastal tourism industry in Pakistan can also become the primer for socio-economic progress in the coastal areas. Following points are considered


relevant in this regard;

• Influx of tourists and development of coastal tourism industry will initiate the process for improvement in basic infrastructure/ facilities like accommodation, communications, fuel pumps and quality restaurants etc. Process of developing infrastructure/ facilities through public and private sector will generate opportunities of employment for the local’s community.

• Increased tourism activities in the coastal area will attract local and foreign investor to invest. Such investments will add value to infrastructure/ facilities and will also give more economic opportunities to local populace.

• Pakistan coastal area is blessed with religious/ cultural heritage sites. Developed infrastructure/ facilities will attract a larger number of outbound tourists on account of religious/ cultural tourism. Same will offer economic benefits and social opportunities through direct means (like development of hotels, restaurants and handicrafts shops etc) as well as indirect business (like supply and services required by tourist contractor and guide).

• Huge business activity is likely to take place in near future due fast progress on CPEC project along the coast. Therefore business tourism will also generate economic opportunities for local populace.

• Tourists also help to boosts local economies by buying local products in term of food and gifts etc. Similarly, with the growth of tourism activity, tourists get involved in local culture like festival, traditional dance etc. In an era of internet, fast information and social network, coastal tourism can portray local socio-cultural values to rest of the country and world. Such activities further payback with more tourist’s influx and portraying of soft image of the society.37

RECOMMENDATIONS

Keeping above in view, following are recommended:


• National Tourism Policy with emphasis on coastal tourism needs to be processed and formalized at the earliest.

• National Tourism Board at federal level having representation of all the provinces and tourism trade organizations in private and public sector be established to bridge the gap between federal, provincial government and other public & private stakeholders.

• The existing infrastructure and facilities need a lot of positive changes. Government should take the initiative of developing basic infrastructure/ facilities like transportation, communication system and accommodation etc along the coast especially near tourist sites. Public-private coordination may be enhanced on priority. Similarly, local investors need to be encouraged to invest in providing facilities to the tourists.

• Especial international tourism corridors with different facilities such as clubs, and modern cinema theatres may be established to attract outbound tourists.

• Awareness enhancing campaign using all resources of media (including local and foreign) be started to increase the basic acquaintance level of the public regarding the coast and coastal tourism. Moreover, slogans like ‘See America’, ‘Amazing Thailand’ or ‘Wow Philippine’ etc may be devised for Pakistan to attract tourism.

• Human resource development in tourism and hotel management requires drastic measures. A sufficient number of trained and skilled HR (including tourist guides) be prepared and made available to improve tourism activities along the coast. Government by involving local investor may develop institutions to meet present and future HR requirement of the industry.

• One of the main complaints has been rampant fraudulent commercial practices in Pakistan which has deterred many foreigners from visiting the country in the past. Therefore as part of the campaign, the government needs to become increasingly vigilant of such practices and has to create opportunities for subsidiary businesses like tour operators


and travel agent etc. to be registered under the Ministry of Tourism. This registration will be beneficial to the campaign as well as the travel traders since the Government encourages tourists to avail services from the service providers which are registered and approved by the Government in order to minimize the risk of fraudulent practices.

CONCLUSION

Coastal tourism mainly relies on natural and cultural resources. Pakistan’s coast has all such resources in abundance but unfortunately could not get due importance alongside main tourism process in the past. Non-availability of infrastructure/ facilities, deteriorated security situation, non-conducive environment and lack of awareness among masses are various factors which affected coastal tourism despite having potential. However, it is also envisaged that developing infrastructure and facilities helpful for coastal tourism are likely to materialize as the CPEC expands. Challenges resolved through principles of sustainability can turn coastal tourism into a thriving and lucrative industry. Development of coastal tourism industry would definitely become the primer for improving the socio-economic condition of the local community. It will also prove beneficial in projecting maritime awareness to whole nation thus reducing their sea blindness. Therefore, both Federal and Provincial governments needs to plan and coordinate tourism industry developmental proposals keeping in view the principle of sustainability so that its growth remains viable and environmental friendly.

NOTES & REFERENCES

1 Ms. Marina Markovic, Mr. Alessio Satta, Ms. Zeljka Skaricic, Mr. Ivica Trumbic, Sustainable Coastal Tourism/ An Integrated Planning and Management Approach (Paris: French Ministry of Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and Physical Planning, 2009), 14.

2 Rochelle Turner, Evelyne Freiermuth, “Travel & Tourism Economic Impact 2016 World” (London: World Travel & Tourism Council, n.d.).

3 “A European Strategy for More Growth and Jobs in Coastal and Maritime Tourism” (European Commission, n.d.), 2.

4 Ms. Marina Markovic, Mr. Alessio Satta, Ms. Zeljka Skaricic, Mr. Ivica Trumbic, Sustainable Coastal Tourism/ An Integrated Planning and Management Approach.


5 “Pakistan’s Tourism Sector Lags behind Region’s Growth,” accessed February 7, 2018, https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/235429-Pakistans-tourism-sector-lags-behind-regions-growth.

6 “Promotion of Tourism in Pakistan,” 10.7 Dawn.com, “Foreign Tourists to Pakistan More than Triple since 2013.”8 Sidra Majeed, Sumia Bint Zaman, Irfan Ali and Dr. Shahid Ahmad “Situational Analysis

of Sindh Coast – Issues and Options” (Islamabad: Natural Resources Division, Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, 2010), 17.

9 “List of Beaches in Pakistan,” Wikipedia, August 25, 2017, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_beaches_in_Pakistan&oldid=797173325.

10 “Fascinating Eco Tourism Opportunities in Pakistan,” Akhbar Nama, June 10, 2015, http://akhbarnama.com/fascinating-eco-tourism-opportunities-in-pakistan-5879.html.

11 “Makran Coastal Highway,” Travel Guide (blog), June 2, 2017, https://www.mydestinationguide.com/makran-coastal-highway/.

12 Ibid.13 “80 Million Domestic Tourists Annually Travel in Pakistan: PTDC,” Times of Islamabad,

accessed February 26, 2018, https://timesofislamabad.com/07-Mar-2017/80-million-domestic-tourists-annually-travel-in-pakistan-ptdc.

14 “80m Domestic Tourists Travel in Pakistan Every Year: PTDC,” Daily Times, March 16, 2017, https://dailytimes.com.pk/23033/80m-domestic-tourists-travel-in-pakistan-every-year-ptdc/.

15 Khurram Husain, “Exclusive: CPEC Master Plan Revealed,” DAWN.COM, May 14, 2017, https://www.dawn.com/news/1333101.”URL”:”https://www.dawn.com/news/1333101”,”shortTitle”:”Exclusive”,”language”:”en”,”author”:[{“family”:”Husain”,”given”:”Khurram”}],”issued”:{“date-parts”:[[“2017”,5,14]]},”accessed”:{“date-parts”:[[“2018”,2,8]]}}}],”schema”:”https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json”}

16 M, Zia uddin “CPEC-Game-Changer for World Trade”, Pak Observer, Jun 2,2017, https://pakobserver.net/cpec-game-changer-for-world-trade/ , (accessed on Dec 29, 2017)

17 Husain, “Exclusive.”18 Minhas Majeed Khan, Ahmad Rashid Malik and Saira Ijaz , Ume Farwa, China-Pakistan

Economic Corridor A Game Changer (Islamabad: The Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad, 2016), 43–48.

19 “Report Shows Asia as the Fastest Growing Cruise Market,” ASEAN Cruise News (blog), August 17, 2016, http://www.aseancruising.com/report-shows-asia-fastest-growing-cruise-market/.

20 Ibid.21 Cruise Lines International Association, “Asia Cruise Trends” (Washigton DC: CLIA,

2017), 5.22 Ibid.23 “Promotion of Tourism in Pakistan” (Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and

Transperancy, 2015), 14.24 mountaintv, “World Tourism Day: Domestic Tourism Enhancing in Pakistan but

without Planning | Mountain TV,” accessed February 7, 2018, http://mountaintv.net/


world-tourism-day-domestic-tourism-enhancing-in-pakistan-but-without-planning/.25 Dr. Fatah Daudpoto, Individual consultant STDC, Personal Interview at Head office of

STDC, Clifton, Karachi, dated 28 January 2018.26 Dr. Roshan, MD Tourism STDC, Personal Interview at Head office of STDC, Clifton,

Karachi, dated 28 January 2018.27 Munawar Khan, “Degree Programme in Tourism” (Centria University of Applied

sciences, 2012), 21.28 “Foreign Tourism: Pakistan Ranked Fourth Dangerous Country - World - Dunya News,”

accessed February 26, 2018, http://dunyanews.tv/en/World/406554-.29 Dr. Fatah Daudpoto, Individual consultant STDC, Personal Interview at Head office of

STDC, Clifton, Karachi, dated 28 January 201830 Kilne, 2001; UNEP Division of Technology, Industry, and Economics, 200631 Ms. Marina Markovic, Mr. Alessio Satta, Ms. Zeljka Skaricic, Mr. Ivica Trumbic,

Sustainable Coastal Tourism/ An Integrated Planning and Management Approach, 16.32 Ministry of Planning Development & Reform Government of Pakistan, “China-Pakistan

Econmic Corridor” (Government of Pakistan, 2017), 23.33 Ms. Marina Markovic, Mr. Alessio Satta, Ms. Zeljka Skaricic, Mr. Ivica Trumbic,

Sustainable Coastal Tourism/ An Integrated Planning and Management Approach, 14.34 K. Rajesh, “Coastal Tourism in Kerala: Its Impact on Economy and Environment”

(Cochin University of Science and Technology, 2009).35 Sihabur Rahman “Coastal Tourism Development Case Study Cox’s Bazar Bangladesh”

(Centria University of Applied Sciences Degree Programme in Tourism, 2015).36 mountaintv, “World Tourism Day.”37 “‘Booming Domestic Tourism Has Caught Pakistan Unprepared,’” Business Recorder

(blog), September 9, 2016, /2016/09/2016090983818/.

69

IMPACT OF 2050 AFRICAN INTEGRATED MARITIME STRATEGY (AIMS) ON SOUTH AFRICAN NAVY

Commander Dieter Jones (South African Navy)*

ABSTRACT

African oceans, inland waters and seas are under increased pressure. Over many years, traditional maritime activities,

such as fisheries or shipping have intensified, while new ones, such as offshore renewable energy or aquaculture, emerged.

However, this rise in intensity of activities at sea is emanating against the backdrop of new maritime insecurities. Acts of maritime criminality include the maritime insecurity along

failed state coastlines, piracy on the east and west coast of Africa, illegal fishing, plundering of natural resources

and various forms of illegal trafficking (drugs, small arms, people). Over the past decade, direct collective losses of

revenue from illegal maritime activities in Africa’s Maritime Domain (AMD) amount to hundreds of billions of US dollars.

This has led to the maxim of Africa to deal with Africa’s problems. The vision has been the driving force behind the

2050 African Integrated Maritime Strategy (AIMS) which is explored in the research article.

Keywords: maritime criminality, aquaculture, failed states, Africa’s Maritime Domain (AFD), African Integrated Maritime Strategy (AIMS)

________________________

*Commander Dieter Jones graduated from South African Naval College in 1998. He is a warfare specialist and has spent most of his career serving in the Surface Warfare Squadron. He has filled positions as Navigation Officer, Principal Officer, Operations Officer and Executive Officer on FSG’s since 2003. He received the “Highest Overall Performance” award on the Surface Warfare Elective Learning Opportunity in 2007. Commander Jones also holds a bachelor degree (cum laude) from Southern Business School in Business Administration and Defence Management. The officer is a graduate of 47th Pakistan Navy Staff Course (PNSC) and his Individual Research Paper (IRP) was adjudged best amongst Allied Course Members of the 47th PNSC. The paper is an abridged version of author’s IRP.


INTRODUCTION

“Africa’s long and beautiful coastline and its abundance of marine resources can contribute to providing economic, food and

environmental security for the continent. These coastal and marine resources continue to be exploited in a manner that does not

benefit Africa and her people”.-Nelson Mandela1

To fully comprehend the factors that limit the efficiency of the South African Navy (SAN) today, it is imperative to have a sense of the history, in particular, the history post-1994 which saw a democratic South Africa and forming of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF).

The South African Navy – A Historical Perspective

The South Africa Afrikaner nationalist government which governed from 1948 until the end of the apartheid regime in 1994 exhibited deep hostility towards Great Britain due to the country’s colonial past. Despite this, and because of the perceived threat posed by the USSR, since the end of World War-II until the mid-1970s it seemed virtually self-evident that South Africa would side with the West in future conflicts against the Soviet bloc, serving as the ‘Guardian of the Cape Sea Route.’2

For this reason, in light of the historical ties between the SAN and Royal Navy, the South African Navy was perceived by many as simply an extension of, and in all but name and administrative function, an operational section of the Royal Navy.3 However, the South African government’s oppressive policy of apartheid led to Britain’s withdrawal from South Africa in 1975, thereby ending the close historical ties between the SAN and the Royal Navy.4 Once Britain withdrew, the SAN was still considered ‘blue water’. Due to apartheid, however, sanctions were imposed on South Africa which resulted in a slow decline of the SAN ultimately reducing it to a coastal defence navy only.

With the fall of the oppressive apartheid regime, the African

Impact of 2050 African Integrated Maritime Strategy (AIMS) on South African Navy 71

National Congress (ANC), under the leadership of Nelson Mandela, won South Africa’s first democratic elections in 1994. The ‘new’ South African government inherited the SAN in a poor state. Given the unrelenting socioeconomic needs that had to be addressed by the government, and the fact that South Africa was now at peace with its neighbours and facing no apparent military threat, many sceptics’ believed that the South African military forces would be significantly reduced in size and capability, or possibly even completely disbanded. Thankfully for the SAN, the latter did not happen. Instead of demobilizing, disarming and reintegrating the ‘apartheid-era’ South African Defence Force (SADF), its liberation movements’, armed wings and their proxies were all integrated into a new national military force, the SANDF. This is where the building process started.

During the apartheid-era (pre-1994), the SADF had more than 100,000 recruits, and consumed close to 4.4 % of the national GDP, making it one of Africa’s strongest and best-trained fighting forces of its time.

The new government faced a mammoth task – they entirely re-scripted the role of the SANDF from active external conflict resolution, to a more conservative role where South Africa would only get involved in regional conflict resolution when asked. For this reason, the budget shrunk rapidly as defence spending moved lower on the government’s priority list.

0

1

2

3

4

5

1988 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2017

Militaryexpenditure(% of GDP)

Figure 1 shows how South African military expenditure as a percentage of GDP declined from the 1980’s to date.5

The SANDF was repositioned as a purely defensive instrument of the state. The 1 % of GDP equates to approximately


R 54 billion Rand (USD 5 billion) to be shared across the SANDF.6

During her recent budget speech (16 July 2017), Defence Minister Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula describes the DoDs financial woes “as a serious mismatch between the current funding allocation and the expectations placed on the Department of Defence…”7

Analysis of the available budget reveals that the budget is sufficient for just 9000 operational hours at sea. Divided between the Operational Fleet (10 ships) translates to just over 37 days per ship for the financial year, or about one ship or submarine patrolling SA’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) on any given day. The harsh reality of this analysis is that with the current budget allocation will mean that each SAN ship will spend about 328 days berthed in port. This grossly budget is the biggest mismatch between capability vs. requirement.

02468

1012

Pre1994

Figure 2: SAN Force comparison pre-1994 and the SAN today

Current Capability Status of SAN

Today the South African Navy boasts as the most modern and sophisticated navy in Sub-Sahara Africa. Even though the number of vessels have reduced over the years it is important to look at quality over quantity of these modern platforms.


Coerc

ive

Benig

n Maintenance

Enforcement

Military

Diplom

atic PolicingDegree of Force

Employed

Defence Force Assistance to Civil Community

Enviromental andResource Management and Protection

Peace Building

Environmental andResource Protection

Quarantine Operations

Peace Keeping

Defence Aid to Civil Power

Drug Interdiction

Anti-PiracyOperations

PeaceEnforcement

Search and Rescue

Assitance to Foreign Forces

Disaster Relief

Presence

EvacuationOperations

Coercion

Figure 3: Roles of the SAN with reference to the Ken Booth Model8

Figure 3 is an extract from the SAN maritime strategy based on the Ken Booth model. Visible is the conventional roles adopted by the SAN. The further you move from the baseline the higher the degree of force is required to be employed. So can the SAN execute these roles today?

When purely looking at the conventional roles of the SAN as stipulated in the SAN Maritime Doctrine, it is easy to conclude that with its current Fleet, it is capable to execute all these roles locally and within the Southern Development Community (SADC) region.

However, the configuration of the SAN Fleet with modern FSGs and SSKs could be seen as a ‘counter-navy’ force, meaning it is designed and equipped to give South Africa the ability to engage in battle with another naval force which at this stage frankly does not exist in the SADC region.

The most glaring mismatch is the ability to execute benign and policing roles locally – not even considering regionally. The SAN has a long coastline (3200 km) with approximately 71,460 square kilometres of territorial waters and the size of the EEZ is 1, 553,000 square kilometres.9 The existing Fleet of Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPVs) and Inshore Patrol Vessels (IPVs) are grossly insufficient and with no Coast Guard and a limited number of fishery protection vessels in South Africa, there is a real mismatch in this domain.


AFRICA INTEGRATED MARITIME STRATEGY (AIMS)

The 2050 AIM Strategy provides an overarching understanding of maritime security which includes social, economic, security and environmental factors. Its vision is “to foster more wealth creation from Africa’s oceans, seas and inland waterways by developing a thriving maritime economy and realizing the full potential of sea-based activities in an environmentally sustainable manner”.10

So from the analysis of the AIM Strategy, the following additional roles/ requirements for African navies are highlighted below:Sr.# Role SAN

Capability Today

Remarks

a b c1 Cross-regional

environmental and resource management and protection

No Not enough OPVs for extended operations

2 Peacebuilding, Peacekeeping and Peace enforcement as part of ASF

Limited No heavy lift capability

3 Cross-regional prevention of hostile acts and criminal act at sea

Limited Not enough OPVs for extended operations

4 Cross-regional anti-piracy operations

Yes Limited to one operation at a time due to limited number of MPAs

5 Heavy sealift No -6 Cross-regional C2 systems No -7 Cross-regional MDAC No Current MDAC

only covers SA coastline


8 Cross-regional Hydrographical surveys

No Project HOTEL to cater for this requirement

9 Improved aids to navigation (cross-regional)

No Local capability only

10 Cross-regional disaster relief operations

Limited No heavy lift capability/ helicopter carrier

11 Cross regional environmental protection

No -

Table 1: Role vs. Capability mismatch for roles/ requirements imposed by the AIM Strategy

SAN Projected Capability Design

Given South Africa’s apartheid past, the Defence Review 1998 provided a defence policy that was largely introspective. However, the future evolution of conflict and the role that South Africa has assumed on the continent was significantly underestimated. South Africa’s international obligations and inescapable continental leadership responsibilities led to approval of the 2015 Defence Review. Salient points extracted from the South African constitution, the white paper on Defence, Defence Act and the 2015 Defence Review will help formulate an understanding of South Africa’s future defence ambitions:

• The Defence Mandate“The Constitution (1996: Chapter 11, Section 200(2)) mandates the Defence Force to ‘defend and protect the Republic, its territorial integrity and its people in accordance with the Constitution and the principles of international law regulating the use of force’.”11

• National PostureSouth Africa sees itself as a sovereign and peace-loving country with no aggressive intentions towards any other state, South Africa seeks to live in peace with its neighbours.12


South Africa recognizes that its own sustainability and prosperity are inseparably entwined with those of the continent and believes ‘a secure South Africa contributes to a secure region, and a secure region contributes to a secure South Africa’.13

• Changed Level of Defence AmbitionOver and above defence of South Africa’s sovereignty; South Africa remains committed to African peace and security, including its obligation to contribute to multinational political, economic and security interventions on the Continent”.14

“Sub-Saharan Africa is increasingly becoming a more important trade partner for our country. Over the next five years, we will continue to promote the building of a better Africa and a more just world. South Africa will continue to support regional and

continental processes to respond to and resolve crises, promote peace and security, strengthen regional integration, significantly

increase intra-African trade and champion sustainable development in Africa…”15

Analyzing the above it is clear that political will exists. South Africa has certainly changed its geopolitical and strategic interests which are the driving force of the changed defence ambitions for the country.

NAVAL POTENTIAL OF AFRICAN STATES

Only five countries on the African continent have a navy capable of law enforcement at sea: Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria and Morocco in North Africa and only South Africa down south.

Other than this there is very little capacity building by African navies to meet the requirements imposed by the AIM Strategy or more importantly to deal with maritime crimes. It is important to remember that buying ships is one thing, but building a capability takes time.


South African Defence Posture

South Africa’s Defence Posture is premised on a ‘layered’ approach to defence and security. This means giving preference to acting in partnership with other countries:

• To defuse situations before these give rise to some serious dispute or potential conflict.

• To resolve disputes and conflicts that do arise by means of diplomacy, mediation or negotiation.16

South Africa will, therefore, continue to employ inter alia security, political, economic and military co-operation with other states. Examples of emerging regional response to maritime security with South Africa at the forefront include the multilateral formations of BRICS, Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) and IBSA (India, Brazil, South Africa) Dialogue Forum to combat maritime crimes within the region.

Capability vs. Requirement Mismatch

The current SAN capability vs. requirement mismatch is highlighted below:

• The SAN Fast Attack Surface Groups (FSGs) and submarines equipped with surface to surface missiles, surface to air missiles and heavyweight torpedoes respectively is a design of a ‘counter-navy’ force. However, the likelihood of the SAN engaging enemy surface combatants, maritime strike aircraft or submarines in the region is remote.

• The AIM Strategy highlights the requirement for Africa to look after and improve own aids to navigation and hydrographical surveys. South Africa is the only sub-Sahara African country with a hydrographical survey ship and hydrographic office certified to print and sell charts for the region. The challenge is that SAS PROTEA is 45 years old and desperately requires to be replaced.

• Given that the most pressing maritime threats facing South Africa and the continent as a whole are in fact illegal fishing,


piracy and drug trafficking, the most glaring gap is the lack of a genuine inshore/ offshore patrol capability.

• The ASF and the AIM Strategy of a Rapid Crisis Response Force for Africa requires a heavy sealift capability. This capability is non-existent in sub-Sahara Africa. With South Africa being the most capable navy in the region and strategically located with access to the east and west coast of Africa, the SAN will be best suited to develop this capability.

• The limited number of Maritime Patrol Aircraft in the South African Air Force severely restricts maritime operations regionally.

• The available budget is grossly insufficient and arguably the biggest mismatch between capability vs. requirement.

CONCLUSION

South Africa is a maritime country blessed with an abundance of maritime resources. It is recognized that the country has not exploited the full potential of this ‘blue economy’ and therefore the maritime interests, economic development, stability and security depend on the sound management of the maritime region.

South Africa has also identified its leadership position on the African Continent. These responsibilities are the driving factors for South Africa’s new defence review, the maritime strategy and the defence ambitions which are meant to ensure stability in the region with matching effect on stability in South Africa.

The AIM Strategy is a positive step towards securing Africa’s maritime interest and ensuring that Africa’s resources are benefitting Africa’s people. The AIM strategy is ambitious and will be difficult to implement, however, with the volume of maritime crimes in SADC, and the limited naval capabilities in this region to deal with these crimes, it is important for South Africa to focus on the regional responsibilities whilst building capacity in the next few decades to align with the AU AIM Strategy requirements.


RECOMMENDATIONS

• Projects being executed under South African Maritime Strategy (BIRO, HOTEL and SAUCEPAN) are considered critical factors and essential for successful enforcement of the Maritime Strategy as well as requirements for South Africa to play a bigger role in ensuring stability on the African continent.

• Political will must be brought in line with approved defence review and the approved maritime strategy.

• South Africa in conjunction with the support of the African Union (AU) and other African countries must investigate procurement of a heavy sealift/ helicopter carrier to remain in line with the South African Defence ambitions and the AU Rapid Crisis Response Force requirement.

• The defence budget must be adjusted to at least 2 % of GDP as recommended by the International Monetary Funds (IMF) to sustain developing countries military organizations.

NOTES & REFERENCES

1 Nelson Mandela (Cape Town, 1998)2 Heitman, South African War Machine, p. 74.3 Bennett and Söderlund, South Africa’s Navy, p. 48.4 Heitman, South African War Machine, p. 82.5 South Africa – Military expenditure – Index Mundi.6 Defence Industry Strategy, 20177 Defence and Military Veterans Dept Budget Vote 2017/18. Parliament of the RSA, Cape

Town, n.d. www.gov.za8 SANGP 100 – South African Navy Maritime Doctrine9 SANGP 100, pg. 14.10 2050 AIM Strategy.Pg 9.11 Bill of rights of the constitution of the republic of South Africa.http://www.gov.za/

(accessed November 16, 2017).12 South Africa. (2011). Draft white paper on South Africa’s Foreign Policy (2012), pg11.13 Ibid, pg. 21.14 South African Defence Review.Department of Defence.pg2-25 – 2-28.15 State of the nation address by his excellency Jacob Zuma.16 South African Defence Review. Department of Defence. Pg. 2-3

80

CONNECTING SHIPS, PORTS AND PEOPLE – CHALLENGES AND WAY FORWARD FOR PAKISTAN

Cdr Shahzad Aslam Syal PN*

ABSTRACT

The world shipping fleet of around 90,000 ships with nearly one and a half million seafarers onboard navigate between hundreds of ports and account for 90% of global trade by volume and over 70% by value. Therefore, ships, ports and people constitute the key components of maritime sectors

around the globe. Pakistan is blessed with advantageous geo-strategic location, long coastline and vast EEZ which offer immense opportunities. However, national ‘sea blindness’

has precluded reaping benefits commensurate with country’s potential. There is a need to divert attention towards this

sector which is likely to provide substantial foreign exchange and act as a driver of national economy. A holistic approach to improve all facets of maritime sectors encompassing ports and shipping, shipbuilding and ship recycling, coastal areas

and hinterland connections and maritime security needs to be adopted in order to accelerate Blue Economy.

Keywords: seafarers, sea-blindness, hinterland, maritime security, blue economy.

------------------*Cdr Shahzad Aslam Syal PN served as faculty at PN War College. His previous appointments include Commanding Officer PNS AZMAT, Staff Officer (Operations) to Commander Auxiliary and Mine Warfare Squadron and Staff Officer (Career Management) at Naval Headquarters. He is qualified Long C, IPWO, PNSC and graduate of Turkish Staff Course.

Connecting Ships, Ports and People – Challenges and Way Forward for Pakistan 81

INTRODUCTION

“Land was created to provide a place for boats to visit.” - Brooks Atkinson1

The earliest users of boats would have never predicted that this simple means of travelling on water would become an extremely essential commodity for people around the world. Since ages, ships have been used not just for transporting goods, peoples and ideas but also as a medium for connecting cultures and civilizations. The ships have been a critical enabler in spreading dominance of great powers to shores across the globe. But the most prominent feature of ships has always been their usage as the most preferred means of transportation. This is because transporting goods through ships is much cheaper than other modes of transportation i.e. road, rail or air. It has the capability to transport huge amounts of goods and raw materials as compared to other modes and it is also safer and eco-friendly. Therefore, today around 90% of global trade by volume and over 70% by value is carried by ships and is handled by ports.2The world shipping fleet provides approximately 1,545,000 jobs for seafarers in international shipping.3 The people working behind the scenes on-board around 90,000 ships4 and hundreds of ports worldwide play a critical role in the efficient conduct of ship and port operations and thus ensure sustained availability of merchandises wherever required. In order to provide an opportunity to focus on these diverse actors involved in the maritime sector, ‘Connecting Ships, Ports and People’ was selected as the this year’s theme by International Maritime Organization.

Following the global trends, maritime sector in Pakistan is extremely crucial for the socio-economic development of Pakistan. Our advantageous geo-strategic location at the mouth of major international energy supply lines, long coastline of around 1,000 km and vast Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of 24,000 sq km offer boundless opportunities. After addition of 50,000 sq km continental shelf, the area in terms of size, is second only to the country’s largest province i.e. Balochistan. Over the years since inception, Pakistan should have taken enormous benefit out of these vast expanses of coastal and maritime zones. However, Pakistan has historically suffered from a general lack of knowledge and understanding amongst the policy makers as well as general public towards


maritime affairs. Due to this ‘sea-blindness’, Pakistan has not been able to reap the benefits of maritime sector commensurate with its potential.

MARITIME SECTOR OF PAKISTAN AND CHALLENGES

Pakistan’s maritime sector including ports and shipping, shipbuilding and ship recycling etc. has immense potential for expansion and subsequently earn substantial foreign exchange if attention is given to the sector.

With respect to ports, Pakistan currently has three major ports namely Karachi, Port Qasim and Gwadar. As per 2015 rankings, Port of Karachi ranked 69 in the world in terms of container traffic while it ranked 86 in terms of total cargo volume.5 The port is handling about 650,000 TEUs and 26 million tonnes of cargo per annum.6 Recent addition of Pakistan Deep Water Container Port (PDWCP) terminal at Karachi Port has further expanded the port infrastructure. The terminal, located at Keamari groyne east of Karachi Port, has the capacity to handle mother ships. The terminal operator, South Asia Pakistan Terminals (SAPT), is owned and operated by Hutchison Ports of Hong Kong. The port has the capacity to handle 3.1m TEUs a year and have a storage yard to accommodate 550,000 TEUs a year.7 The second biggest port of Pakistan i.e. Port Bin Qasim ranks 133 in terms of container traffic while it is ranked 163 in terms of total cargo volume. Although at present at nascent stage, Gwadar Port is likely to become one of the busiest ports of the region. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), connecting Chinese Western regions and potentially Central Asian States with Pakistani Port of Gwadar has been touted as ‘game changer’ for the whole region. By developing several economic zones all across the corridor and increasing connectivity, CPEC is likely to boost economic growth with significant increase in shipping and port activities across the region.

More than 95% of Pakistan’s trade (by volume) is carried by sea including vital POL supplies and essential commodities. Fast growing economies primarily depend on their own flag carriers for their maritime trade. Currently, Pakistan has national flag carrier, Pakistan National Shipping Corporation, own only 9 ships (05 bulk carriers and 04 tankers) with a total deadweight capacity of 681,806


metric tonnes.8 Less number of national flag carriers has increased dependence on foreign merchant ships for international trade. Therefore, 70 million of 83 million tonnes annual trade, i.e. 85% is carried by foreign ships. As a result, Pakistan spends over $ US 4 billion annually on freight to foreign carriers.

Shipbuilding and repair industry acts as a catalyst for development of other manufacturing industries and economy and is thus an unavoidable imperative for developing countries like Pakistan. KS&EW is currently the only enterprise in the country in this field. One shipyard each at Gwadar and Port Qasim has already been approved by the Government in principle. Capacity enhancement of KSEW and construction of the approved shipyards can lead to substantial earnings from this sector, self-reliance and will improve socio economic conditions.

In ship recycling industry, Gadani ship breaking yard was the largest in the world in 1980s. However, over the years, earnings from this sector have dwindled tremendously. Although Pakistan’s ship breaking industry is still ranked 3rd in 2016 as far as demolition of ships is concerned,9 the prevailing facilities and working conditions leave much to be desired.

HUMAN RESOURCE – THE ‘PEOPLE’ FACTOR

As per International Chamber of Shipping, the worldwide population of seafarers serving on internationally trading merchant ships is estimated at 1,647,500 seafarers, of whom 774,000 are officers and 873,500 are ratings. Currently, nationals from Greece and Japan that work as seafarers, for example, largely do so as officers, while seafarers from Indonesia, Pakistan and the Philippines are more likely to be employed as ratings10. The latest five-year Baltic and International Maritime Council and International Chamber of Shipping Manpower Report forecasts a serious future shortage in the supply of seafarers. The report identifies a current shortfall of about 16,500 officers (2.1%), and a need for an additional 147,500 officers by 2025 to service the world merchant fleet. The global supply of officers is forecast to increase steadily, but this is predicted to be outpaced by increasing demand. Many countries rely on increasing remittances from seafarers. For instance, in the Philippines, seafarer remittances in 2015 reportedly amounted to


$5.8 billion which superseded even foreign direct investment and overseas development assistance funds received by the Philippines.11

Pakistan, with its capacity to train and produce seafarers, must take immediate measures to seize the opportunity. However, before implementing such a strategy, Pakistan needs to look thoroughly current problems being faced by Pakistani seafarers. Dwindling size of PNSC means that it will not be possible to induct all Pakistan Marine Academy (PMA) cadets. Problem is further compounded due to requirement of reputed shipping companies of experienced seafarers. It, therefore, becomes imperative that local shipping companies are generous in hiring fresh PMA graduates. In addition, Pakistani seafarers also face discriminatory behaviour internationally. It necessitates instant bilateral/ multilateral agreements and effective diplomacy to restore the market of Pakistani seafarers and their safety on the part of concerned ministry. On the local front, working condition of many people involved in maritime sector has been less than satisfactory. The fire incident at Gadani has brought to light the weakness in our ship recycling industry.

People living close to coast are the ones who matter the most to the maritime sector. On a global basis, coastal regions are linked with far greater population density, productivity and amenity values. However, in our case, large part of coastline is still pristine and sparsely-populated and offers vast opportunities for development which has to be undertaken in a zoned, integrated, controlled, environment friendly and sustainable manner.

Training of people in various disciples of maritime sector is another obligation. Currently, Institute of Maritime Affairs is serving as a think-tank for analysis and study of maritime affairs. It has to be expanded exponentially in order to gain maximum from the ‘people’ who connect ports and ships.

WAY FORWARD

In his book, Super Highway, maritime strategist Rear Admiral (Retd) Chris Parry argues that in the second decade of the 21st century, the sea is set to reclaim its status as the world’s preeminent strategic medium. With globalization spreading and


economies becoming increasingly interconnected, his argument regarding increasing importance of maritime domain merits attention. Statistically, global maritime trade has quadrupled over the past four decades, and is projected to double again over the next fifteen years, on the keels of more than one hundred thousand merchant vessels.12

Despite having long land borders, Pakistan is dependent on sea for trade like an island nation. Thus our economic growth is intrinsically linked with CPEC and Blue economy. At the core of the solution for Pakistan, lies a national awareness and understanding of the potential of the maritime sector. Government supervision and monitoring and focussed attention would be essential. At present, maritime affairs of the country are being looked after by a National Maritime Affairs Coordination Committee (NMACC), which has its secretariat at Maritime Affairs Wing, Ministry of Defence. It is time that the committee be sensitized to formulate and promulgate maritime polices, propose necessary legislations, promote and coordinate economic growth through Blue Economy, implement and execute action plans related to maritime domain and most important of all enhance maritime awareness through all available sources.

With its prime location at the crossroads of energy supply lines, Pakistan needs to take immediate steps to enhance existing port infrastructure and its efficiency. Up gradation of existing ports, putting in place business friendly regulatory frameworks, strict implementation of international standards, appropriate laws and creation of equal opportunities to bring efficiency into the ports’ operations would lead to economic dividends. Early operationalization of Gwadar Port should be aimed to reap benefits of regional transhipment and transit port.

In line with the domestic requirements, Pakistan needs to add more oil tankers to its national flag carrier fleet. More ships for PNSC would also facilitate Pakistani human resource from the maritime sector. National Shipbuilding needs to be beefed up with early establishment of Shipyards at Gwadar and Port Qasim as approved in principle by the Government. Increased awareness amongst masses and human resource development in maritime sector may be envisioned through establishment of think tanks and


research centres vis-a-viz maritime domain.

Increased economic activity across maritime domain in the light of CPEC/ Gwadar and other initiatives in maritime sector would need enhanced security measures at sea. In order to ensure stable order at sea, Pakistan Navy and Pakistan Maritime Security Agency needs to be equipped with potent platforms to deal with conventional and non-conventional threats and other challenges.

CONCLUSION

Ships, ports and people form the key components of maritime sectors around the globe. Pakistan will have to abandon her ‘sea blindness’ and take accelerated steps towards Blue Economy. In this regards, nurturing national shipping lines, promotion of seafaring as a career, taking care of seafarers’ problems, improvement in port infrastructure and efficiency, development of Gwadar Port at fast pace, development of hinterland connections and coastal regions are some of the avenues that need to be explored in order to generate significant maritime activity that has the potential to drive national economy.

NOTES & REFERENCES

1 Brooks Atkinson, This Bright Land, (Doubleday: 1972).2 International Maritime Organization, accessed on 03 Oct 17, http://www.imo.org/en/

About/Events/WorldMaritimeDay.pdf3 Manpower Report, Global Supply and Demand for Seafarers – 2015, Baltic and

International Maritime Council and International Chamber of Shipping (Marisec Publications, 2015).

4 Review of Maritime Transport – 2016, United Nations Conference On Trade And Development,(United Nations Publications, 2016).

5 World Port Rankings -2015, The American Association of Port Authorities, accessed 28 Oct 17, http://aapa.files.cms-plus.com/Statistics/WORLD%20PORT%20RANKINGS%202015.xlsx.

6 KPT, http://kpt.gov.pk/pages/Default.aspx?id=39#page-heading.7 ParvaizIshfaq Rana, ‘Country’s biggest port starts test operations’, Dawn, December 10,

2016.8 Pakistan Economic Survey, 2016, p 215.9 Review of Maritime Transport – 2016.10 UNCTAD secretariat calculations, based on Baltic and International Maritime Council

and International Chamber of Shipping, 2016.


11 Review of Maritime Transport – 2016.12 Lloyd’s Register, QinetiQ, and University of Strathclyde Glasgow, Global Marine Trends

2030 (London, 2014), p. 50, https://www.dropbox.com.pdf.

88

BOOK REVIEWS

SEA POWER – THE HISTORY AND GEOPOLITICS OF THE WORLD’S OCEANS

Author: Admiral (R) James Stavridis USN (United States Navy)Publisher: Penguin Press (2017)

‘Sea Power – The History and Geopolitics of the World’s Oceans’ is a classic work; more a travelogue that takes the reader back in time to the epoch of galleys and transits through various important and historical events in the maritime arena. It then draws inferences from the geopolitical trends of the 21st century. The author produces a blend of anecdotes from his personal experiences travelling and serving various parts of the maritime world and correlates historic battles fought between great powers. The narrative appears to make the reader believe that oceans will remain the vital avenue for dominance in the world, more Mahanian than Mackinder. The author’s prognosis is that the militarization of oceans will transform the South China Sea, Eastern Mediterranean Sea and the Arabian Gulf as future war zones.

The Admiral who served with distinction and held the esteemed position as Allied Commander at NATO begins by dilating upon the importance of the Pacific Ocean in the current era. He further declares the ocean expanse to be the mother of all oceans. Tracing the voyages of Ferdinand Magellan across the briny waters of Pacific in the 16th century and who named the ocean as such, the author attributes its serenity to Magellan. Admiral also brings forth the unprecedented interest and involvement of numerous states in the Pacific – notable being China and India. Chinese development of carrier killer missiles and A2/AD strategy besides creation of military bases at artificial islands in the South China Sea has been touted as a source of grave concern. While oversimplifying the economic developments in China and rising military might, the author considers it to be an attempt to mask internal problems and an effort to shift the focus of its population. He heaps lofty praises upon US Navy Carrier Battle Group and its long-range air

Sea Power – The History and Geopolitics of The World’s Oceans 89

defence ships. Deriding at Chinese carrier, the author maintains these are little match for the US carrier force. Though, Admiral James considers that a strong Navy is a prerequisite for sea power he nonetheless suggests that best way to reduce friction between various global powers and other regions is maritime diplomacy, participation in joint exercises such as RIMPAC (Rim of the Pacific Excercise) and other diplomatic channels.

While alluding to the historical importance of the Atlantic Ocean, the author vividly praises the advancements in navigational techniques that took place during 15th – 16th century. He makes a special mention of Portuguese explorers and journey of Vasco de Gama towards Indian subcontinent. Atlantic Ocean gained importance once trade route between Europe and US mainland was established with import/export of fruits, vegetables, animals and at a later stage, even slaves were sent to US via sea route. This subsequently became the basis for industrial revolution in America, contends the author. Naval battles such as the 18th-century war between France and England, Battle of Trafalgar between Nelson and Napoleon in 1805, Battle of Atlantic in WW-II operations which wreaked havoc with allied shipping and turned the tide in favour of Karl Donitz/Hitler is striking in the narrative. Add to that is the Falklands War in the 1980s all of which render Atlantic momentous. The author fleetingly mentions opposing views and importance given to navy by Democrats and Republicans in America and change in higher level approach towards navy subsequent to Admiral Mahan’s classic work on Sea Power.

Harping on further, Admiral Stavridis considers the Indian Ocean along with the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf as vital in 21st century maritime and diplomatic spheres. It supports half of the world’s shipping, 70% of oil supplies also traverses across its sea lanes. In order to promote peace in this region where two arch rivals and nuclear states are located, author calls for greater US involvement with India and emphasizes on resolution of the Indo-Pakistan conflicts, more importantly, the Kashmir issue. Author deems Shia and Sunni divide in the subcontinent with each bloc being led by Iran and KSA as damning. It also leaves Gulf States in state of cold war where the presence of US 5th Fleet based at Bahrain is the saviour of America and its allies naval interests in the Indian Ocean. Author predicts that rise of India is inevitable in 21st


century and US must take advantage of this by engaging New Delhi through bilateral exercises and keeping her presence in the region.

The author forewarns that by infiltrating in Europe, IS could ignite a religious war in the event Rome is struck. To this end, he recommends that more maritime involvement of NATO, better intelligence collection efforts and a long-term solution to the current Middle Eastern crisis is the only possible way to thwart IS goals.

While highlighting importance of South China Sea, author explains its historical background and establishes linkages with Chinese dynasties and opium wars. China’s increasing military power has been viewed with grave concern by the author. About the Caribbean nations, author is critical of the Monroe Doctrine. According to him, the doctrine was unrealistic and could not become consequential until power of the US grew. Cuba most certainly comes into sharp focus in discussion on Carribean. About the Arctic Ocean, author stresses that the environmental threat to the region is virtually incalculable and must be addressed. Global warming is destroying the polar ice cap and dangerously raising the sea levels. Without decisive action, many of today’s continental coastlines will vanish under water by the next century, warns the author.

While reiterating the importance of naval power in the contemporary era, the author attempts to simplify certain issues. He glorifies US Naval power as the invincible force around the globe. The author, however, seems unable to maintain a neutral stance on certain aspects, especially while in his discourse on the military buildup of China and India. Paradoxically, while appreciating Indian naval developments and nuclearization of Indian Navy, the author considers PLA (N) developments as a threat to regional peace and stability. For US, the Admiral recommends strengthening of ties with India by way of collaboration on diplomatic, cultural, military and political bonds. This collaboration according to the author also entails sale of advanced naval hardware Aegis Combat System, cooperation in nuclear submarines and maritime science and diplomacy etc. This stand in contrast to arguments author makes earlier to minimize military developments in the Indian Ocean owing to Kashmir dispute.

Sea Power – The History and Geopolitics of The World’s Oceans 91

Professedly, a strong proponent of soft power in maritime arena, the author seems to be a victim of insincerity as he vociferously promotes the acquisition of 12 carrier battle groups for US Navy along with reconstituting 8th and 9th Fleet of US Navy.

Despite difference of opinion over certain issues, the book makes an informative and worthwhile reading for students of Maritime Affairs, Naval History and also for maritime policymakers.

Reviewed By Lt Cdr Tahir Majeed Asim TI(M) PN

92

SAPIENS: A BRIEF HISTORY OF HUMANKIND

Author: Yuval Noah HarariPublisher: HarperCollins (2014)

‘Sapiens’ by Yuval Noah Harari makes for a thought-provoking and compelling read. The book is so titled since it traces the origins of Homo Sapiens. With extraordinary vitality, Hariri explores through past and present of the human race. Cataloguing series of revolutions beginning with cognitive age (70,000 years ago) morphing into agricultural revolution (11,000 years back) to scientific (500 years ago), the author chronicles more recent history. According to the author, it was the scientific revolution that set in motion the industrial revolution precipitating into the information age. The author reckons an end to ‘Sapiens’ positing that genetic engineering may perhaps replace humans.

The book opens up with an appraisal of hunting-gathering culture, a time when people lived in close contact with nature, enjoyed different kinds of raw food, and roamed around freely in the land gossiping, singing, telling stories and exploring myths. It further shuffles through general pattern by which humans became master of every other creature on earth. Social coordination among humans led to the creation of various myths which bonded them into a community and they later formed a nation. Such a vast and wide-ranging network of coordination is virtually non-existent in any other living creature on earth. As in the case of apes and monkeys who live in a setup of a closely knit community where an alpha ape commands full authority on the pack in terms of food supplies and internal disputes etc. But as they don’t have myths or doctrines which can bind them in the form of cities or nations they live in small packs based upon biological links. They are furthermore devoid of the spirit to form a setup with aspersions of becoming the rulers of the world. Humans have, on the contrary, excelled in this trait and therefore their cooperation often extends to millions of people taking pride in common origin or a particular caste or creed.

‘Sapiens’ also differentiates between the concepts of equality

SAPIENS: A Brief History of Humankind 93

and individuality. Although the humans have been created equal, they have evolved differently because every individual is born with a unique combination of DNA and is exposed to a different environment which has resulted in a totally different individual from the rest of the humans. Therefore, the ideas of equality, fraternity, justice and democracy are all the products of our collective imagination and not something encoded in our genes. This is the reason that our history is imbued with all such gory details of revolutions and uprisings to bring these principles into laws.

Yuval Harari gives a detailed description of cultural transformation from the time immemorial. In a way, the micro-cultures merged into bigger empires like the Roman or the Byzantine Empire and their later disintegration into various nations. The author winds up the theme with a curious question as what will be the shape and form of our culture under the concept of a mega empire in this era of globalization. Are the humans heading for a global culture assimilating all the cultures existing on the planet earth, posits Harari. How long would they be able to preserve their culture from this global influence or is it even a wiser option to do so, he adds.

The book gives a detailed description of the writing system as for how the Sumerians invented the first known script in history and how it evolved over the years to transform into a computerised binary script of 0 and 1. The ‘Sapiens’ also enlightens about the era of exploration of the world and what it took for the Europeans to construct the map of the world and virtually become the conquerors of the world. It highlights an intriguing fact that in the 16th century when the Ottomans in Middle East, the Chinese in East Asia and the Mughals in South East Asia were all powerful dynasties then why didn’t they undertake the feat of exploration and colonisation of the world when their European brethren were competing each other in the accumulation of wealth from those distant lands. Nonetheless, these trio dynasties contributed for more than 2/3rd production of the world yet they didn’t join the bandwagon so it certainly can’t be the case that they lacked the resources to do so rather there are certain other factors which led to this segregation.

In spite of all its dazzling revelations, the book is nonetheless


not free of contradictions at places. The script provides for a self-assured viewpoint on certain serious issues like religion or creed. Harari oversimplifies religion and tries to give an impression as if religion is nothing but a product of our common imagination. He has tried to present religion through the prism of natural sciences which is quite illogical. It’s the same as saying that gravity never existed before Newton discovered it. If science hadn’t been able yet to discover God then it doesn’t point to the fact that all the religious persons are paranoid. The author’s implied reference that if you’re a devout Muslim, Christian, Hindu or Zoroastrian then you cannot actually be a practical or a logical person in your life is a misjudgment. Religion does play a significant role in our day to day life. Although the book contradicts many religious beliefs, yet it does not overshadow the remarkable genius with which the book sweeps through consequential events in the evolution of Homo Sapiens.

The book presents a panoramic glimpse of history punctuated with a variety of diverse issues since the times humans strolled earth. It is a sobering message on the extent of the age of the planet and human life, where an individual counting for minute fraction of seconds could leave a lasting impression.

Reviewed By Lt Cdr Asad Yaseen PN

95

INDIA-PAKISTAN NUCLEAR DIPLOMACY – CONSTRUCTIVISM AND THE PROSPECTS FOR NUCLEAR

ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT IN SOUTH ASIA

Author: Mario E CarranzaPublisher: Rowman & Littlefield (2016)

The book is inspired by the thought that the nuclearization of South Asia is no longer a regional matter as it has morphed into a global issue and needs to be analyzed as such. The book focuses on India-Pakistan nuclear relations under the constructivist framework and examines India and Pakistan’s interaction with Nuclear Non-Proliferation Norm (NNPN) to propose a way for the gradual nuclear disarmament in South Asia.

In the introductory part; Dr Carranza has provided an exhaustive analysis of literature written on the subject of nuclear diplomacy of India and Pakistan. The author frequently mentions Stephen Cohen’s work – ‘Shooting for a century’ and his rather pessimistic opinion on the resolution of Indo-Pakistan conflicts. He argues that since most authors have analyzed the subject through the lens of realism/neo-realism approach to thus end up in a proverbial cul-de-sac. The author is, however, optimistic and mentions that if the measures adopted for conflict resolution are guided under a framework of constructivism, a gradual transition towards reconciliation and subsequent denuclearization could be achieved. To this end, he proposes Alexander Wendt’s social constructivism (‘thin’ constructivism) as a plausible framework for Nuclear Non-Proliferation Norm (NNPN) in South Asia. The basic tenets of thin constructivism assume that the structures of human association are determined primarily by shared ideas from where identities and interests of purposive actors are constructed.

In the chapter, ‘An Impossible Game’, the author examines the nuclearization of South Asia since May 1998 India and Pakistan’s nuclear tests. A debate on ‘stability-instability paradox’ and comparative analysis of South Asia with Cold War Europe also appears in the narrative. It is viewed that Cold War Europe


was inherently more stable as USSR and US did not have domestic and cross-border threats. The author briefly touches the strategic constraints which have forced the rivals to abandon the ‘minimum deterrence’ in favour of ‘minimum credible deterrence’, thus making it an ‘Impossible Game’ to achieve stable nuclear deterrence in South Asia.

The author alludes to India-Pakistan nuclear conundrum and examines it in the light of International Relations (IR) theories. He views India’s initiative of testing nuclear weapons in May 1998 as a strategic miscalculation which only defeated its unchallenged nuclear deterrence and stirred up an unending nuclear arms race in South Asia. The author concludes the discussion on ‘nuclear proliferation optimism/pessimism pre and post-May 1998’ by proclaiming that ‘nuclear deterrence stability’ is an unachievable myth that helped perpetuate India-Pakistan nuclear conundrum. In his view, the so-called stability-instability paradox is a misleading notion that allows ‘pro-bomb’ advocates to rationalize the idea that it is possible for India and Pakistan “to live with the bomb”. The author explains that while realist approach is the standard explanation for India-Pakistan rivalry, realism has congenital inability to blend change in its model. However, constructivists approach provides an alternative framework and allows the possibility of changing state preferences towards Indo-Pakistan nuclear settlement.

In the chapter, ‘Explaining and Forecasting Nuclear Reversals in South Asia’, the author suggests a constructivist framework for nuclear reversal in South Asia. He claims that India and Pakistan cannot ignore changes in the international social and normative environment since May 1998. According to the author, Bush Administration (2001-2008) continued legitimizing nuclear weapons while progressively recognizing India’s right to possess nuclear weapons under a discriminatory interpretation of proliferation. Overall, US concessions to India under 2008 nuclear deal had a negative impact on the NNPN. Despite this, the author believes that a combination of international normative pressures and internal domestic politics could initiate nuclear reversals under a constructivist framework. The writer views Pakistan-India adherence to moratorium on nuclear testing as a testimony of the impact of international social environment, however, is unsure as to how the interplay of domestic politics could contribute towards

India-Pakistan Nuclear Diplomacy – Constructivism and The Prospects for Nuclear Arms Control and Disarmament in South Asia

97

nuclear reversal. The author calls into question the policy of ‘de-hyphenation’ & terms it a ‘folly,’ since it clearly sides with India and attempts to contain Pakistan.

While discussing normalization of India-Pakistan relations, as it is an important element of the constructivist framework, the author invites world powers like US, Russia and China to play their role towards resolution of disputes between India and Pakistan. The author admits that Pakistan has made a proposal for nuclear disarmament every year at the United Nations, however, India has rejected the proposal ever since on the pretext of a regional approach involving China as well. Thus it becomes a zero-sum game in the overall context.

In the concluding chapter, Dr Carranza examines Alexander Wendt’s three cultures of anarchy and argues that the dominant characteristic of anarchy can at best be defined, not as ‘Hobbesian’ but as ‘Lockean’ rivalry, which entails the use of violence to settle disputes, while recognizing others’ right to live. From a constructivist point of view, Pakistan and India are not immune to normative changes at the global level and are responsible to the international community for their commitment towards NNPN. Therefore they will be forced to take meaningful nuclear arms control and disarmament measures and thus pave the way for US-sponsored charter of ‘nuclear weapons-free world’.

The constructivist framework which the author has proposed for the resolution of India-Pakistan nuclear rivalry can at best be seen as an unrealistic solution. The hope that sanity would prevail on lines of the constructivist framework may sound appealing but in practice, the world where we live in, it is the ‘law of jungle’ that prevails. All in all, the book makes a useful guide for those engaged in nuclear diplomacy in South Asia and to understand what lies beneath the deterrence stability between two nuclear-armed neighbours.

Reviewed by Lt Cdr Mobeen Ul Haq PN

98

A LEAF FROM HISTORY

Japanese Attack on Pearl Harbour- A Strategic Mistake

Capt. Umar Hayat PN

The paper is being reproduced from the original version submitted by the author in 2011 to the Department of Strategy, US Naval War College Newport, Rhode Island.

INTRODUCTION

The complex elements underlying Japanese nationalism and modernization in the 2nd half of the nineteenth century combined to produce the first powerful challenge to Western interest in the region. As a result of impressive industrialization and military growth, Japan embarked to become an empire. After resoundingly defeating China and Russia in successive wars in 1894 and 1904-05, Japan became a major power in the region to reckon with. Japanese military venture into China against US ‘Open Door ’ policy1 drew strong opposition from US which finally culminated in the Japanese surprise attack on Pearl Harbour, a move which itself was an aberration to IJN defensive maritime doctrine.2 From a tactical point of view the attack was the most brilliant operation in the naval history but from a strategic standpoint, it was a massive blunder ensuring Japan’s defeat all but certain due to US overwhelming superiority in terms of resources and manpower. Apart from US massive industrial prowess and latent military strength, Japanese leadership also miscalculated the psychological impact of Pearl Harbour on the US public and government which saw the attack as treacherous move negating the principles of International Law. The US public sentiments were so inflamed that they were committed to supporting a ‘total war’ to tear apart the Japanese empire at all cost. Japanese flawed planning process which never catered for the factor ‘enemy’ also contributed to this strategic blunder. Unlike China and Russia, US was an enemy of a different

A LEAF FROM HISTORY: Japanese Attack on Pearl Harbour - A Strategic Mistake 99

kind as it was a functioning democracy with no internal threat. As Japan lacked the resources to wage total war, Japanese strategy was to seek a negotiated settlement with the US after securing Southern resource area and German victory in Europe thereby strengthening its bargaining position vis-à-vis US.3 The strategy was, therefore, a gamble as there was no alternative in case events occur contrary to the Japanese speculation. In the ensuing paragraphs I would expand further on these arguments to support the thesis.

MISMATCH OF POLICY AND FLAWED STRATEGY

Japanese policy objectives for Pacific campaigns were too ambitious4 and resulted in imperial overstretch and created too many enemies. Taking into account the US engagement in European theatre against Nazism, Japan embarked on the ‘Hold North and Go South Strategy (hokushu nanshin)’, as weakened European colonial powers and relatively weak US navy were considered of no match to them. Army spared merely 11 division of the total 51 division for ‘Go South Strategy.’ The bulk of their land forces remained engaged in Manchuria and China till the final stages of the conflict. Considering the nature of the attack on Pearl Harbour (without war being declared) and other greater Japanese strategic objectives, the Japanese leadership’s plan of limited war was a strategic error of monumental proportion. Considering American economic might5 and injured public sentiments, declaration of total war by the US should have been anticipated and in such case, Japan had no chance to win a victory. In fact, Japanese relied heavily on factors other than material as Admiral Osami Nagano while interacting with the Japanese Emperor said, “The government has decided that if there were no war, the fate of the nation is sealed. Even if there is war, the country may be ruined. Nevertheless, a nation which does not fight in this plight has lost its spirit and is already a doomed nation”.

Japanese strategic planning also did not take into account the logistic requirement to sustain operations in the wider theatre of influence. Had they done so, they could have realized that in its South East Asian and Pacific conquest, Japan would overextend itself and that its current and projected capabilities were inadequate for producing and distributing equipment and supplies to forces on the land and island front6 Had the Japanese leadership taken


SWOT analysis of the strategic situation they would not have attacked Pearl Harbour. Japanese negated the Clausewitzian strategic thought that: “The first, the supreme, the most far-reaching act of judgement that statesmen and commander have to make is to establish the kind of war on which they are embarking; neither mistaking it for, nor trying to turn it into, something that is alien to nature”.7

Apart from strategic miscalculation, Japanese strategic concept of Operation was also deeply flawed as its success was based on German’s success against Britain, the outcome of which was uncertain at that point in time. Japanese Plan was, in fact, a strategic gamble which required cooperative adversary, the success of an ally and heavy reliance on the nation’s willpower. Such a strategy was bound to fail as it negates the Clausewitzian concept of interrelationship of Policy, Strategy and Operations which states, “No one starts a war or no one in his right senses ought to do so without first being clear in his mind what he intends to achieve by that war and how he intends to conduct it”.8

APPLICATION OF ERRONEOUS LESSONS FROM RUSSO-JAPANESE WAR

Russo-Japanese war of 1904-05 had greatly impacted Japanese national and military doctrine. Japan was able to defeat Russia by adhering to the following broad principles:

• Capitalizing on concentrated but limited power• Exploit short-term weakness to pre-empt long-term strength• Seizing the objective area quickly• Convince enemy that cost of recovering of the area would be

unacceptable thus ensuring negotiated settlement in own favour.

Japanese applied the same strategy for settling the score with US and Allies in the Pacific. Knowing the fact that US Navy would be much stronger in 2 years’ time after planned modernization,9 Japanese decided to engage USN rather earlier than later, as its current fleet strength was sufficient as per IJN doctrine to take


on USN10 (Exploit short-term weakness to pre-empt long-term strength) and the ratio IJN to USN tonnage was to increase in favour of USN in coming years due to massive planned USN production.

1941 1942 1943 194470.6% 65% 50% 30%

Table: Anticipated Ratio of IJN To USN Tonnage11

Following the cardinal principle of seizing the objective area quickly, IJN quickly conquered Southern resource area and a defensive cordon of the Greater Asia. By defending the newly conquered territories with utmost dedication, Japan wanted to convince the enemy that cost of recovering of the area would be unacceptable.

Opposed to Japanese strategy in the Russo-Japanese war, the Japanese, however, did not effectively used other pillars of national power. The major deviation to Russo-Japanese war an undertaking of offensive action in enemy territory as Japan never attacked Vladivostok in the previous campaign. Furthermore, Qing’s China and Romanov’s Russia were both cooperative adversaries. Both had suffered a collapse of their respective home fronts for long-festering domestic reasons. If either adversary had targeted Japanese SLOCs or drawn the war deeper inland, the cost of the war would have skyrocketed12. Contrary to China or Russia, the US was a stable democracy with no issues at the domestic front (an Isolationist group in the Congress opposing US engagement on behalf of Allies were side-lined after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour).

PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACT OF PEARL HARBOUR

Prior to launching any military offensive, it is important for the planner to clearly understand the strategic consequences of such actions. As Clausewitz said, “The commander must guess, so to speak; guess whether the first shock of battle will steal the enemy’s resolve and stiffen his resistance, or whether, like a Bologna flask, it will shatter as soon as its surface is scratched …. Guess whether the burning pain of the injury he has been dealt will make the enemy collapse or, like a wounded bull, arouse his rage13.” Japanese leadership failed to


comprehend the strategic effect of the attack on Pearl Harbour. The Japanese always relied on their supreme resolve (Bushido code and Samurai tradition) to wear down the opponents in the war of attrition to secure a negotiated settlement. There is no doubt that Japanese always displayed moral supremacy over their enemies (Kamakazi was an example), yet Japanese leadership made fundamental miscalculation over the efficacy of their psychological primacy and failed to realize that it could not overcome too severe a material handicap. Japanese deluded themselves into the belief that attack on Pearl Harbour would leave American divided, confused and dismayed. This was a grave miscalculation and total misunderstanding of the American people at the time. The attack generated such a fury among the public that Roosevelt was not required to plead his case for declaration of war by US Congress against American Isolationist lobby14. If the Japanese were correct in their view that psychological rather than the material factor was the decisive element of the war, then Pearl Harbour attack ensured their defeat.

COUNTER-ARGUMENT

There are historians who are of the view that the Japanese had no alternatives in the prevailing strategic environment. The attack on the Pearl harbour was the only way to secure the flanks of the main Japanese thrust into Southeast Asia to capture its raw material. If the attack had not been carried out, Japanese would have found themselves fighting a two-front war in the Pacific, a continuation of their offensive in Southeast Asia coupled with defensive operations in the central Pacific. Japan’s operational plan at Pearl Harbour was only designed to ‘buy time’ to conduct defensive zone and negotiate a settlement on hostilities.

Above stated argument does not hold ground as Japanese did have alternatives which could have ensured better prospects of achievement of Japanese national interests. In fact, Japan of the 1930s was a nation driven by almost irrational radicals to commit irrational acts against the West. Moderate leaders who opposed conflict with Britain or US – whether civilian such as foreign minister Inoue Junnosuke or military officers like Lt Gen Nagata Tetsuzen were simply assassinated.15 The plan of attack on Pearl Harbour did not also command acceptance within the Japanese


high command. In the heated argument that took place before the Japanese strategic policy was settled, Yammamoto’s demand for an attack on Pearl Harbour was resisted by those who believed that no American government could take the United States into a war in defence of British and Dutch colonies in South East Asia. There can be little doubt that these individuals were right; isolationist sentiments and congressional hostilities would have prevented the Roosevelt administration from going to war for Batavia and Singapore.16 Moreover, until the attack on Pearl Harbour and Philippines by Japanese Military and IJN, US President Roosevelt and his advisors were uncertain whether the American public would support an armed commitment to stop Japanese aggression. Considering the fact that the US did not declare war on Germany once France and Netherland were occupied by Germans and Battle of Britain was being fought, US might not have declared war on Japan merely over the occupation of Dutch and British colonies in South East Asia. Even if the United States declared war on Japan, it might not have had public pressure to allocate equivalent resources for Pacific to that of European theatre. Moreover, attacking US fleet could have been engaged successfully by the superior IJN close to home waters in accordance with their tactical doctrine and then Japan could have negotiated a favourable outcome.

CONCLUSION

The defeat of the Japanese Navy in World War II can be attributed to its success in the Russo-Japanese war. After its success against Russia, it failed to appreciate the nature of the upcoming conflict. The Japanese navy had previously succeeded in wars of limited aims with limited resources against regional opponents. It kept preparing for a ‘War’ against the US for a long time, but actually, it had prepared for a ‘battle’ instead of a war. Japan mistook tactics for strategy and strategy for operations. That is the reason that despite initial tactical successes in the Pacific theatre, the Japanese Navy was completely defeated at the end of the war. As Millett and Williamson stated in Lessons of War: “Mistakes in operations and tactics can be corrected, but political and strategic mistakes live forever.” The statement cannot be truer than for the Imperial Japanese Navy of World War II.


NOTES & REFERENCES

1 The policy was enunciated by US Secy of state John Hay at the turn of the century.its key principles were: preservation of the independence, sovereignty, and territorial and administrative integrity of China; and establishment of equal opportunity for all nations engaged in commercial and industrial relation with China.

2 The triumph of Japan in Russo-Japanese war of 1904-05 provided not only a legacy but also a naval doctrine for the IJN, known as Taikon Kyohosyugi, the principle of big ship and big gun. The IJN operational plan was dominated by Tsushima, which focused on a counterattack against an enemy fleet of the Japanese mainland

3 Daniel Marston,The Pacific War from Pearl Harbour to Hirshima, Osperay Publishing ltd 2005UK, p.47

4 The Japanese plan for new order in east Asia and South Sea prepared by research section of Ministry of war incorporated Burmese and Malaya’ monarchies, absorption of Australia Newzealand and Cylone as a part of Japanes empire in the first phase. 2nd phase which was to undertaken 20 years later was to extend Japanese influence in North and Central America.

5 US potential to mobilize the economy was greatly underestimated by Japanese. US economic might can be gauged from the fact that US was utilizing merely 8% of her economy to fight the war on both across Atlantic and Pacific. Of the 54 million working American, only 8 million participated directly in the war work.(‘A War to be Won’ by Murray and Millett,pp 544)

6 Conflict in the Pacific was indeed a war of distances,the sea route from Java to Tokyo was 4100 NM, the width of the Southern reaches of Japanese Empire was 6400 miles. The oceanic parameter of Japanese empire at its zenith was 14,200 miles in length-equivalent to well over half of the earth circumference.

7 Carl von Clauswitz, On War,ed. And trans. Michael Howard and Peter Paret,rev.ed.(Princton,1984),88

8 Carl von Clauswitz, On War,ed. And trans. Michael Howard and Peter Paret,rev.ed.(Princton,1984),579

9 In June 1940 congress passed Vinson act to provide 11% increase in USN tonnage and 4500 naval aircraft. A month later congress also authorized Two Ocean Navy Act which planned to produce 1,325,000 tons of shipping, a goal far beyond Japanese industrial capacity

10 As per IJN doctrine formulated by Vice Admirl Sato Akuyama ,force level of at least 70%of the strength of that of the USN was required to enable IJN to have chance of victory against attacking US fleet (KAIGUN pp 143).

11 Daniel Marston,The Pacific War from Pearl Harbour to Hirshima, Osperay Publishing ltd 2005UK, p.33

12 Lecture by Prof Sally Pain on Startegic Overview of Rise of Japan delivered in Spruance Hall on Dec 11

13 Carl von Clauswitz, On War,ed. And trans. Michael Howard and Peter Paret,rev.ed.(Princton,1984), pp572-573

14 Extract from ‘Empire in the Balance’ by H.P. Wilmott p14115 ‘Japan’s Economic Security and the Origin of Pacific War’ by Micheal A Barnhart16 ‘Extract from ‘The Great Crusade’ by H.P. Wilmott p165

Research Paper of Pakistan Navy War College Gets Global Accreditation 105

ALUMNI SECTION

RESEARCH PAPER OF PAKISTAN NAVY WAR COLLEGEGETS GLOBAL ACCREDITATION

Lt Cdr Zaeem Shabbir PN 46th PN Staff Course

In the 46th PN Staff Course, Lt Cdr Zaeem Shabbir earned the best IRP Trophy for his paper on ‘Militarization of Space & Options for Pakistan’. It comprised of two distinct parts: the first part assimilated the capability and possible military usage of Indian space program, whereas the second part explored the response options that may be exercised by Pakistan to counter these threats. The expanded version of the latter part was later selected for presentation at the Fifth International Conference on Aerospace Science & Engineering (ICASE) scheduled from Nov 14-16, 2017 at Islamabad.

ICASE is a biennial conference, which is regularly held at Institute of Space Technology, Islamabad. This conference has rapidly become a platform to bring together the essential strands of academia and industry. Thus, it provides a unique opportunity for the space sciences community to present and learn about new ideas and developments.

A research paper titled “Counterspace Operations – A Doctrinal Survey of Military Space Powers” was presented in the sub-track of “Space Technology Management & Awareness”. It delved into the military response options to counter the advantage of space to the enemy. Based upon the discussion/ opinion on presentation, an original research work containing a generic framework for any nascent space power has also been prepared and forwarded to “International Journal of Space Politics & Policy”; a highly reputed journal in the field of Astropolitics.

A gist of the research paper is as follows:


COUNTERSPACE OPERATIONS: A DOCTRINAL SURVEY OF MILITARY SPACE POWER

In 21st century warfare, satellites have become indispensable for militaries for gaining dominance in the battlespace. Referred to as “national technical means of verification” in article V of the SALT-I treaty, satellites had carried special protection since 1972. The threat to satellites, which had thus receded significantly, resurrected with the dawn of new millennia as USAF announced its resolve for space domination in its doctrine of Counterspace Operations (published in 2004) and testing of Anti-Satellite Missile by China and US in 2007 and 2008 respectively.

Presently, as the global community becomes more and more reliant on space technologies, there are worldwide concerns for the security of satellites in space. The term “Counterspace Operations” (CSO’s) continues to gain attention of military planners and researchers around the globe. Such operations include various kinetic and non-kinetic operations that can be exercised to protect own assets or target the enemy’s assets pertaining to the medium of space. These operations can be carried out through any of the six mediums of warfare and may pertain to assets on ground, in space or the electromagnetic link connecting the space and ground segment. On one hand, offensive CSO’s are necessary to counter the qualitative edge of enemy in realm of space, whereas on the other hand, defensive CSO’s are also necessary for protection of own assets.

Major space powers have greater ambitions and stakes in the medium of space and hence are their concerns for the safety of their space programs. This research work has collated the viewpoint about the CSO’s as articulated in the doctrines of militaries of some advanced space powers along with the opinions of several authors. These space powers include China, India, NATO, Russia, UK and USA. The purpose is to draw the attention of military personnel as well as space technology protagonists to these global concerns. Major findings of the research are as follows:

• The concerns of UK and NATO are modest without much

Research Paper of Pakistan Navy War College Gets Global Accreditation 107

offensive ambitions. This is primarily driven due to their dependence on US resources, particularly in the domain of space.

• On the other hand USA, Russia and China have high priorities and concerns pertaining to CSO’s. In particular, the doctrine documents of US Airforce comprehensively present the conceptual approach towards ensuring space superiority in an event of conflict. China and Russia, although are advocating the PAROS treaty, continue to develop a strong, credible capability to be used against a potential enemy.

• India, being an aspirant space power, has enshrined the elements of passive defensive measures in its space program so as to keep it protected during crises or war. Although the official documents and statements portray a pacified image, yet there exists a significant drive in the intellectual and technical community of India to develop and test the offensive CSO capabilities.

• However trivial these CSO’s may look in the overall canvas of military operations; the intent is always to gain the effects that are strategic in nature.

• Given any definition of CSO’s from any of the above-stated doctrines, it can be stated that the presence in orbit, is in itself a counter space operation. This conclusion, last but not the least, is considered to form the best possible option for a smaller or a nascent space power with limited resources.

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