The Bolivarian Revolution The Bolivarian Revolution of Hugo Chávez of Hugo Chávez

Accomplishments and Accomplishments and Trends Trends

February 6, 2006 February 6, 2006

Five DimensionsFive Dimensions

Generational turnoverGenerational turnoverPhenomena that sustain the new Phenomena that sustain the new

eliteeliteBolivarian Vision and its use Bolivarian Vision and its use Constraints of the visionConstraints of the visionThe FutureThe Future

I. Generational TurnoverI. Generational Turnover

Leadership: Old & New Leadership: Old & New

Quebec Summit (April 2001)Quebec Summit (April 2001)

José V. Rangel: odd man out? José V. Rangel: odd man out? ((Vice President) Vice President)

Leader of URD in Leader of URD in 1960´s 1960´s

Presidential Presidential candidate (1973; candidate (1973; 1978; 1983) of 1978; 1983) of MAS, MEP, PCV MAS, MEP, PCV

Implacable hatred Implacable hatred of Punto Fijo of Punto Fijo system and blames system and blames USA for its USA for its longevitylongevity

A New Generation of A New Generation of ImplementersImplementers

II. Phenomena that sustain II. Phenomena that sustain the new elitethe new elite

Class conflictClass conflictHostility to western modernization Hostility to western modernization

Caracas: Modern & Caracas: Modern & Western?Western?

Caracas: Poor & Primitive Caracas: Poor & Primitive

Phenomena that sustain the Phenomena that sustain the new elite: new elite: Class ConflictClass Conflict

Other phenomenon that Other phenomenon that sustain the Bolivarianssustain the Bolivarians

Memories (some implanted) of Memories (some implanted) of venality and incompetence of the venality and incompetence of the defunct liberal democracy regime defunct liberal democracy regime

Revenge against those who Revenge against those who benefited from Punto Fijo benefited from Punto Fijo

Anti-Americanism Anti-Americanism

III. The Bolivarian III. The Bolivarian Vision Vision and and its Useits Use

Abandon failed ISI policiesAbandon failed ISI policies

Replace the (mistaken) vision of Replace the (mistaken) vision of using Venezuelan wealth to emulate using Venezuelan wealth to emulate living style of the North Atlantic living style of the North Atlantic ““Punto Fijo” democracy unraveled Punto Fijo” democracy unraveled

because it stimulated desire for western because it stimulated desire for western life style that is neither feasible or life style that is neither feasible or desirable desirable

ISI (between 1958 – 1990) sought to ISI (between 1958 – 1990) sought to facilitate high levels of middle class facilitate high levels of middle class consumption consumption

Oppose Savage Neo-Oppose Savage Neo-liberalismliberalism

Mistaken reliance on free markets to Mistaken reliance on free markets to “westernize” “westernize”

Not feasible in Latin AmericaNot feasible in Latin America

Not desirable Not desirable

More on the Bolivarian More on the Bolivarian VisionVision

Basic human needs must be made Basic human needs must be made available to allavailable to allEducationEducationhealth carehealth careHousingHousingCulture Culture

Petroleum income can facilitate the Petroleum income can facilitate the vision (some things never change) vision (some things never change)

Still More on the Bolivarian Still More on the Bolivarian VisionVision

Disdain for the existing middle class Disdain for the existing middle class Suspicion of meritocracy – a cover to Suspicion of meritocracy – a cover to

exclude the disadvantaged exclude the disadvantaged Emphasis: equality of outcome Emphasis: equality of outcome Highest priority - making the urban Highest priority - making the urban

slums livable slums livable

Use Use of the Bolivarian vision: of the Bolivarian vision: domestic affairsdomestic affairs

Discredit accomplishments of Discredit accomplishments of defunct liberal democracydefunct liberal democracyFailure to reach stated goalsFailure to reach stated goalsCorruption Corruption

Domestic entrepreneurial sector Domestic entrepreneurial sector attacked for selfishness and attacked for selfishness and corruption corruption

Urban space with middle class Urban space with middle class symbols allowed to deterioratesymbols allowed to deteriorate

UseUse of the Bolivarian Vision: of the Bolivarian Vision: Taming the Military Taming the Military

Among 59 top positions in the Venezuelan Among 59 top positions in the Venezuelan armed forces - Chávez armed forces - Chávez changed 45changed 45 (75%) (75%) in July 2005 in July 2005

National Guard – most impacted (24 of the National Guard – most impacted (24 of the 29 top positions) 29 top positions)

Ties with Cuba replace training by U.S. Ties with Cuba replace training by U.S. militarymilitary

asymmetric warfare asymmetric warfare to discourage opposition hope that the Marines to discourage opposition hope that the Marines

will land will land Alternative force to regular military Alternative force to regular military

Changes Military Changes Military Doctrine/Training Doctrine/Training

War College in Los Chorros closed for War College in Los Chorros closed for six monthssix months

Manuals and text books being Manuals and text books being rewritten rewritten

Emphasis on asymmetric warfare Emphasis on asymmetric warfare

UseUse of the Bolivarian vision: of the Bolivarian vision: International ArenaInternational Arena

Controlled elevation of tensions with Controlled elevation of tensions with the United States (symbol of Western the United States (symbol of Western consumerism) consumerism)

Search for allies that seek to diminish Search for allies that seek to diminish power/influence of the United Statespower/influence of the United States

Policies that bolster high price for Policies that bolster high price for petroleumpetroleumOPECOPECChina China

Chávez’s Hemispheric Vision: Chávez’s Hemispheric Vision: Brazil plays a key role in Brazil plays a key role in reducing U.S. Influencereducing U.S. Influence

IV.IV. Constraints Constraints on Chávez’s on Chávez’s Bolivarian “vision”Bolivarian “vision”

Class conflict Class conflict emphasis emphasis complicates using complicates using expertise/talent expertise/talent developed between developed between 1958-981958-98

Talent necessary to Talent necessary to stem deterioration stem deterioration of infrastructure of infrastructure

Other Constraining Other Constraining ConsequencesConsequences

Failure to define role for loyal Failure to define role for loyal opposition strengthens option of opposition strengthens option of political change by forcepolitical change by force

Discouragement of foreign Discouragement of foreign investment from the North Atlantic – investment from the North Atlantic – unintended consequence - unintended consequence - increases increases dependencedependence on petroleum income on petroleum income

““Small vision” ISI strengthens Small vision” ISI strengthens dependence on revenue from dependence on revenue from petroleum petroleum

United States government: A United States government: A Constraint on the Chávez Constraint on the Chávez

Vision?Vision?

USA seen by the Venezuelan USA seen by the Venezuelan people people

Many supporters of Bolivarian revolution Many supporters of Bolivarian revolution have brought into Chávez’s negative have brought into Chávez’s negative view of the Untied States view of the Untied States

Positive view of the U.S. at all time low Positive view of the U.S. at all time low (35% in poll of public opinion – Sept. (35% in poll of public opinion – Sept. 2005) 2005)

Bolivarians see some groups in U.S. as Bolivarians see some groups in U.S. as allies in their struggle with U.S. ruling allies in their struggle with U.S. ruling elite elite Poor Poor Leftist academicsLeftist academics

V. The FutureV. The Future

Electoral Panorama: Electoral Panorama: Marginalization of Chávez Marginalization of Chávez

OpponentsOpponents

Revocatory referendum (August, 15, Revocatory referendum (August, 15, 2004) 60% for retention 2004) 60% for retention

Regional and Local elections Regional and Local elections (October 31, 2004) 80% of seats for (October 31, 2004) 80% of seats for the Revolution the Revolution

Municipal Council elections (August Municipal Council elections (August 7, 2005) 80 % of seats for the 7, 2005) 80 % of seats for the Revolution Revolution

National Assembly National Assembly ElectionsElections

(December 4, 2005)(December 4, 2005)

Unprecedented government control Unprecedented government control over selection of revolutionary party over selection of revolutionary party candidates candidates President’s office maintained a file on President’s office maintained a file on

each of the 360 candidates offered by each of the 360 candidates offered by the governmentthe government

Exceeded level of centralism/personalism Exceeded level of centralism/personalism that marked candidate selection under that marked candidate selection under the Punto Fijo regime the Punto Fijo regime

National Assembly National Assembly ElectionsElections

(December 4, 2005)(December 4, 2005)

OppositionOppositionPolling suggested that government Polling suggested that government

would win 80% of seatswould win 80% of seatsLeaders decried tilting of electoral Leaders decried tilting of electoral

playing fieldplaying fieldConcerned over the secrecy of the vote Concerned over the secrecy of the vote Withdrew from the processWithdrew from the process

Eliminating Residues of Eliminating Residues of “bourgeoise democracy”“bourgeoise democracy”

Primary function of National Primary function of National Assembly - to legalize the initiatives Assembly - to legalize the initiatives of the revolutionary chieftain of the revolutionary chieftain

Function of the National Assembly Function of the National Assembly will be to assess whether proposed will be to assess whether proposed laws are sufficiently revolutionarylaws are sufficiently revolutionary

If they are sufficiently revolutionary If they are sufficiently revolutionary the National Assembly will expected the National Assembly will expected to pass them to pass them

2006 Presidential Election 2006 Presidential Election and Beyondand Beyond

Scheduled for December 3, 2006 Scheduled for December 3, 2006 Opposition participation “up in the air” Opposition participation “up in the air” Little evidence that the revenge motive is Little evidence that the revenge motive is

dissipatingdissipating Abandonment of elections as procedures Abandonment of elections as procedures

conceived as instruments to bring conceived as instruments to bring alternative forces to power? alternative forces to power?

How Much Pluralism: the Central How Much Pluralism: the Central Government Government

Presidentialism predominates Presidentialism predominates Military Military

Unprecedented monitoring of political Unprecedented monitoring of political loyaltiesloyalties

Militias as counterweights Militias as counterweights Chavizistas dominate the national Chavizistas dominate the national

bureaucracy bureaucracy Imported oil broke power of PVSA Imported oil broke power of PVSA

managers managers Presidential Missions have undercut the Presidential Missions have undercut the

traditional bureaucraciestraditional bureaucracies

How Much Pluralism: the How Much Pluralism: the Regions, Municipalities and Regions, Municipalities and

Neighborhoods Neighborhoods Regional institutions weakenedRegional institutions weakened

Elected governors have less control over Elected governors have less control over budgetsbudgets

Most governors belong to government Most governors belong to government political parties political parties

Municipal level in fluxMunicipal level in fluxOpposition controlled governments Opposition controlled governments

bypassedbypassedLack of clarity on how strong municipal Lack of clarity on how strong municipal

institutions should be institutions should be Neighborhood organizations deal Neighborhood organizations deal

mostly with Caracas-based “missions”mostly with Caracas-based “missions”

How Much Pluralism: Political & How Much Pluralism: Political & Societal Societal

Organized labor slowly being brought Organized labor slowly being brought to heel to heel

Urban poor remain supportive Urban poor remain supportive Inclusion has led to perceptions of Inclusion has led to perceptions of

having a stake in the regime having a stake in the regime Petroleum revenue has facilitated direct Petroleum revenue has facilitated direct

transfer of income from central transfer of income from central government government

Poor don’t view their quality of life as Poor don’t view their quality of life as having deteriorated under Chávezhaving deteriorated under Chávez

How Much Pluralism: Middle How Much Pluralism: Middle SectorsSectors

Middle sectors created during Punto Middle sectors created during Punto Fijo remain opposed or ambivalentFijo remain opposed or ambivalentEasy to ignore in direct democracy Easy to ignore in direct democracy 30% of population (40% depending on 30% of population (40% depending on

the specific public opinion poll) the specific public opinion poll) Revolution is beginning to create a Revolution is beginning to create a

supportive middle classsupportive middle class

How Much Pluralism: How Much Pluralism: Economic Elites Economic Elites

Traditional entrepreneurial groups have Traditional entrepreneurial groups have “adjusted” to the Chavistas “adjusted” to the Chavistas

Large land owners negotiating sale of a Large land owners negotiating sale of a percentage of their holdings percentage of their holdings

Revolution divided on merits of attempting Revolution divided on merits of attempting to create a supportive capitalist class to create a supportive capitalist class

Opportunities for multinational Opportunities for multinational corporations based in MERCOSUR countries corporations based in MERCOSUR countries

Overarching Conclusions Overarching Conclusions

Political and economic conditions suggest Political and economic conditions suggest Chávez will strengthen his hold on Venezuela Chávez will strengthen his hold on Venezuela

Hostility to the United States unlikely to Hostility to the United States unlikely to diminish diminish

Core Nature of 21Core Nature of 21stst Century Socialism Century Socialism Optimistic – an innovative blend of Optimistic – an innovative blend of

socialism and free enterprise that reflects socialism and free enterprise that reflects the realities of Venezuela (and Latin the realities of Venezuela (and Latin America)America)

Pessimistic – 21Pessimistic – 21stst Century Ceauşescu Century Ceauşescu’s ’s RomaniaRomania