the cancun paradox
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The Cancun Paradox. and the Future of Climate Institutions. February 22nd, 2011 Leuven Centre for Global Governance Studies - KUL. René Audet Centre d’étude du développement durable. The Copenhagen Accord. 2009 (Copenhague). 2005 (Montréal). 2008 (Poznań). 2006 (Nairobi). - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Cancun Paradox
February 22nd, 2011Leuven Centre for Global Governance Studies - KUL
René AudetCentre d’étude du
développement durable
and the Future of Climate Institutions
2005
(Montré
al)
2009
(Copenhague)
2008
(Poznań)2007
(Bali)2006
(Nairobi)
Second commitment period of Kyoto Protocol
Long term coop action
CPH Accord
Neg
otiati
ng
man
date
s(t
wo-
trac
ks)
Exit negotiating mandate (Political declaration)
The Copenhagen Accord
2005
(Montré
al)
2009
(Copenhague)
2008
(Poznań)2007
(Bali)2006
(Nairobi)
Second commitment period of Kyoto Protocol
Long term coop actionNeg
otiati
ng
man
date
s(t
wo-
trac
ks)
Operationalized in the negotiating mandate
The Cancun Agreements
2010
(Cancun)
CPH
Agr
eem
ent
The Semantics of « Balance »
Does the semantics of balance can help to predict a
deal?
The Semantics of « Balance »
A balanced outcome should demonstrate
sufficient level of advancement in the KP
track
The Semantics of « Balance »
A balanced outcome should demonstrate
sufficient level of advancement in the KP
track
We need balance between developed and developing countries pledges for
mitigation actions
The Semantics of « Balance »
A balanced outcome should demonstrate
sufficient level of advancement in the KP
track
We need balance between developed and developing countries pledges for
mitigation actions
Balance between specific issues
(ex: adaptation/mitigation
in finance)
The Semantics of « Balance »
A balanced outcome should demonstrate
sufficient level of advancement in the KP
track
We need balance between developed and developing countries pledges for
mitigation actions
Balance between the needs of future
and present generation
Balance between specific issues
(ex: adaptation/mitigation
in finance)
The Semantics of « Balance »
A balanced outcome should demonstrate
sufficient level of advancement in the KP
track
We need balance between developed and developing countries pledges for
mitigation actions
Balance between the needs of future
and present generation
Balance between human needs and « Mother Earth’
capacities
Balance between specific issues
(ex: adaptation/mitigation
in finance)
Two-Tracks North&South Comitments
FuturGen/MotherEarth
Issues0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
The Semantics of « Balance » in the COP15&16 Plenary Sessions
G77Annex 1
Old and New Multilateralism
Cancun and the redefinition of multilateralism…
Old and New Multilateralism
Old – Club Model
Closed negotiations among great powers
Ex: the Triad (US, UE, Japan), the Quads (Triads + Canada), etc.
The CPH Accord as a Club model Accord?
Old and New Multilateralism
Old – Club Model
Closed negotiations among great powers
Ex: the Triad (US, UE, Japan), the Quads (Triads + Canada), etc.
The CPH Accord as a Club model Accord?
New – Dialogue Model
Coalitions as legitimate political representatives
Ex: the G20, G33, Coton4, Africa Group, LDC Group,
etc. in the WTO and UNFCCC
The role of the Cartagena Dialogue in Cancun.
ConclusionThe Copenhagen Accord will structure future climate negotiations and institutions more than is admitted.
The Cancun Agreements go as far as possible in the contexte of competing
semantics of balance
What about the balance between political will and science-based decisions?
New multilateralism and Cartagena Dialogue important for the next big trade-off…
Bedankt!