the changing role of simulation · enabling the revolution • increased emphasis on purpose built...

NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

Incorporating the 2nd

The Changing Role of Simulation

Joe WalshintrinSIM, USA

Bradley HoltzCyon Research, USA



• The use of Simulation has seen continual double digit % growth annually for about 30 years until 2008

• This cumulative growth now means that Simulation is a significant portion of the Engineering Software Market and a driver for future growth

• This has resulted in increased focus and investment in simulation by major PLM software vendors



• This growth is coupled with increasing awareness that Simulation is the key enabler toIncreased Competitiveness

• The changing role of simulation is more about it’s role in business than the changes in technology

• Let’s explore the Simulation as it relates to perceived Business Value and breadth of applicability


Failure Analysis• This is where it

begins – Understanding

“why it failed”• Run by a few

“experts” • Dominated by test

vs analysis comparisons


Design Validation

• Checking before it fails

• The dawn of Virtual Prototyping

• Broader use of simulation


Design Decision Support

• Why not use simulation to make better design decisions

• Why not ask designers to run simulations


Design Drivers

• Simulation making design decisions

"We are only at the verge of the era where simulation generates, rather than evaluates, geometry."

Keith Meintjes, CIMdata


Systems Engineering

• Driven by growth of embedded software

• Heavily used in EDA world

• Design drivers extended to systems


Business value = broader demand

• Demand should be increasing on a classic S curve

• Is simulation at an inflection point to break through ?

Simulation Demand



• intrinSIM looked at actual & projected MCAE Market growth since 2009 (Courtesy of Cambashi data observatories)

MCAE Approx. Growth Rate

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Chart2

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Growth Rate


-0.1093240303

0.1154686817

0.1660660582

0.075382927

0.0780685965

0.0933136324

0.0963872406

Sheet1

-10.93%11.55%16.61%7.54%7.81%9.33%9.64%

20082009201020112012201320142015

AltairVendor1152,000136,000172,000212,000250,372277,208304,996333,998

ANSYS WorkbenchVendor2425,542408,339458,386536,651586,128637,653702,319777,066

DS - SimuliaVendor3141,855144,022169,589202,809234,324271,908318,477371,761

ESIVendor4103,262104,612111,692131,108143,785153,792165,054176,140

LMS (now part of SPLM)Vendor5176,516150,301179,078247,741273,127305,821343,172385,963

MSCVendor6254,386218,066199,500207,500221,971231,805244,414255,810

50%Other CAE % of other MFGOther944,437796,364893,5131,008,5971,028,6541,073,9541,149,1841,237,979

2,197,9981,957,7042,183,7582,546,4062,738,3612,952,1413,227,6163,538,717

AltairVendor1-11%26%23%18%11%10%10%

ANSYS WorkbenchVendor2-4%12%17%9%9%10%11%

DS - SimuliaVendor32%18%20%16%16%17%17%

ESIVendor41%7%17%10%7%7%7%

LMS (now part of SPLM)Vendor5-15%19%38%10%12%12%12%

MSCVendor6-14%-9%4%7%4%5%5%

Other CAE @ 50% of other MCAEOther-16%12%13%2%4%7%8%

Sheet1

Vendor1

Vendor2

Vendor3

Vendor4

Vendor5

Vendor6

Other

MCAE Approx. Worldwide Revenue in $ 1,000s

Sheet2

Vendor1

Vendor2

Vendor3

Vendor4

Vendor5

Vendor6

Other

MCAE Approx. Worldwide Revenue in $ 1,000s

Sheet3

Growth Rate




• Inserted MCAE growth and evolution based outlook

• This does not look like an inflection point

• What happened?

Expertise Required MCAE Market Trends evolution



• Simulation is still done primarily by specialized Analysts

• Growth of MCAE market is tempered due to lack of expertise available

Expertise Available Expertise Required

MCAE Market Trends evolution


Business Drivers

• Business Drivers are going to force a “revolution” to overcome the expertise based limitation

• Simulation will be forced to find a way


Business Drivers

• The demand is not going away

• A Simulation revolution will occur:– “Fit for purpose”– “Smart” – “Integrated”– “Transparent”

Expertise Available Expertise Required

MCAE Market Trends revolution


Enabling the Revolution• Increased emphasis on

purpose built applications• Increased emphasis on

Systems Engineering• Emergence of simulation

knowledge capture & reuse

• Emergence of near real time / near physics approaches

• Unlimited access for the appropriate “performance” evaluation needed


ASSESS is Born

• “… we should have a separate conference just on this topic.” – Rod Dreisbach, Boeing

• Lunch with Brad Holtz (Cyon Research)

– “…let’s start with a Summit”– Several discussion and a few

months later and the Analysis, Simulation & Systems Engineering Summit was born

http://c4uc.org/News/Summit.aspx

http://c4uc.org/News/Summit.aspx


ASSESS is Born

• January 2015• Santa Fe Institute as a host• 40 people for a summit

Analysis & Simulation focusSystem Engineering focusDesign focusIndustry AnalystsFinancial AnalystsEnd usersSoftware VendorsDomestic & International representation


ASSESS at COFES

• ASESS had a strong presence at COFES (Congress On the Future of Engineering Software) 2015– Summary overview of the Summit– Presentations on Key Issues from the Summit– Roundtable discussion regarding ASSESS

next steps


Key Issues from the Summit

• Design-centered Workflow Keith Meintjes

• Ease of use & usabilityMalcolm Panthaki

• Pre-CAD analysis and optimization Steve Levine on behalf of Dipankar Choudhury

• Impact of web/cloud/mobileJon Hirschtick


Key Issues from the Summit

• Knowledge capture & reuseMarc Halpern

• Ability to combine heterogeneous models in a systems approach

Steve Coy & Hubertus Tummescheit

• Appropriate model fidelity & role of unsexy stuff

Jack Ring on behalf of Mary Fortier

• Licensing models need to be revisited


ASSESS Next Steps

• Analysis, Simulation & Systems Engineering Strategy initiative– First pass at mission statement

“Expanding the use and benefit of Model Based Simulation, Analysis and Systems Engineering”

2005 2015 2020?1 in 22 1 in 6 ALL


ASSESS Next Steps

• Establish a community for communication– Creating multiple ASSESS LinkedIn groups

• Investigate organizational form going forward– Consortium / or part of an existing organization– intrinSIM working with AES and others to explore

potential government funding


ASSESS Next Steps

• ASSESS Symposium/ Conference planned– Joint activity by Cyon

Research and intrinSIM– Currently targeted for

January 2016 (1st or 2nd week)– Target larger audience than

the Summit (100-120)


Summary

• The Role of Simulation is changing– Growth is limited by available expertise– Simulation is increasingly being seen as a

key enabler for Competitive Advantage– Business Drivers are going to force a

Revolution– Technologies are emerging to enable the

Revolution


Summary

• Analysis, Simulation & Systems Engineering Strategy (ASSESS) initiative has been started to address this changing role– Collaborative industry wide effort

“Expanding the use and benefit of Model Based Simulation, Analysis and Systems Engineering”


Summary

• ASSESS activities– Sponsored by Cyon Research and intrinSIM– Initial Summit was January 2015– COFES 2015 sessions covering Summit Report &

ASSESS next steps • Summit report

– Creation of ASSESS LinkedIn Groups – Next ASSESS event is being planned for Jan 2016

– Contact us to become part of ASSESS

The Changing Role of SimulationThe Changing Role of SimulationThe Changing Role of SimulationFailure AnalysisDesign ValidationDesign Decision SupportDesign DriversSystems EngineeringBusiness value = broader demandBusiness value = broader demandBusiness value = broader demandBusiness value = broader demandBusiness DriversBusiness DriversEnabling the RevolutionASSESS is BornASSESS is BornASSESS at COFESKey Issues from the SummitKey Issues from the SummitASSESS Next StepsASSESS Next StepsASSESS Next StepsSummarySummarySummary

the changing role of simulation · enabling the revolution • increased emphasis on purpose built...

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