the changing uk housing context€¦ · case study: private renang schizophrenia? tax policy • 3%...

The Changing UK Housing Context

KennethGibbUniversityofGlasgow

May2017

ShapingFutures

Toronto

Shaping Housing Futures Symposium University of Toronto

Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership of 12 May 2017

Chart Two: Stock by Tenure (As a % of All Dwellings) 2015

23% 17% 16% 15%

20% 15%

62% 62% 69%

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Scotland England Wales

Social Rented Housing Stock (%) Private Rented Dwellings (%)

Owner Occupied Dwellings (%)Source: Scottish Government

Source:CHMA2017Q1



Table 2: Households: by household type in 1996, 2006 and 2016

UK Millions

One person households

One family household:

couple*

One family household: lone

parentTwo or more

unrelated adultsMulti-family households

All households

1996 6.6 13.9 2.3 0.7 0.2 23.7

2006 7.3 14.5 2.6 0.8 0.2 25.4

2016 7.7 15.5 2.7 0.9 0.3 27.1

Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics

Notes:



-20%

-16%

-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

UK Scotland

Source: ONS HPI

House prices relative to pre-crisis peak (Monthly)

Source:CHMA2017Q1



Figure 3: Affordability ratio by local authority, 2015



-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

%

GB

Scotland

Annual rate of change in rental prices

Source: ONS

Source:CHMA2017Q1



Figure 5: UK house building, permanent dwellings completed, financial years 1970/01 to2013/14UK dwellings completed

Notes:1. Source: DCLG Live Table 2092. Data based on financial year



0

4

8

12

16

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Non-high income multiple;LTV > 90

High income multiple; 90 <LTV < 95

High income multiple; LTV> 95

All loans with impairedhistory

%

Higher-risk lending as proportion of all regulated residential lending: UK (Quarterly)

Source: FCA

Source:CHMA:2017Q1



Policy Frameworks

• UK-levelhousingpolicy:-largepartoffiscalpolicyincludingspendingrules-mostwelfarespend-financialpolicy,monetarypolicy&finnacialregulaKon• Devolvedhousing:e.g.RTB;homelessness,borrowing• Rubbingpoints:welfarebenefits,HAreclassificaKonandthePRS• MulK-levelgovernance–citydeals,localgovernance,etc.



Case Study: Private RenAng Schizophrenia?

TaxPolicy•  3%surchargeonstampduty(landbuildingstransacKonstaxinScotland)•  8%surchargeoncapitalgainstaxforlandlordssellingassets•  StealthtaxreducKononmortgageinteresttaxrelieftobasicrate(becomesaturnovertaxandincreasesmanylandlordsmarginaltaxrate)

Scotland•  FromDecember2017,newopen-endedtenancy–asymmetricrulesforendingtenancies•  LocalrentpressurezonesandrentgrowthlimitaKon•  3rdpartyarbitraKonoverunreasonablerentincreases



Policy Responses

Fixing our broken housing market

•  Fixingourbrokenhousingmarket•  SupplytargetsinEngland,in

London,WalesandScotland•  HomelessnessreducKon&

prevenKon

•  OtherkeyresponsesnotalreadymenKoned:-industrialeconomicsofbuilding-localhousingneed&plans



The 2016 UK General ElecAon

• Overview–opposiKonpartyposiKons• KeyConservaKvePledges:-socialhousing(butlaterreversionandfixedtenancies)-biddingforrighttoborrowmore-carefunding:£100Kceilingonassets–quickestu-turninhistory?• Brexitandhousing(dependingon‘deal’):-economytohousingnegaKvedriversviaGDP,currency&migraKon-construcKonsector-muchbiggereffectsifleadstofurtherconsKtuKonalchange



the changing uk housing context€¦ · case study: private renang schizophrenia? tax policy • 3%...

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