the climate challenge. is ‘human society’ the cause? this crisis is man-made (not natural)...
TRANSCRIPT
The climate challenge
Is ‘Human Society’ the cause?
• This crisis is man-made (not natural)
• Overpopulation?
• This crisis is directly linked to the capitalist mode of production
The greenhouse effectSolar
radiation
50%
20%
100% 26%
4%
Conduction, Evaporation
Infrared
H2O
CO2 , CH4, N20
+15°C+15°C390 Wm-2
Capture
153 Wm-2
The greenhouse effect
• A natural phenomenon
• Makes life on Earth possible• Higher temperature: liquid water is available• Brings inertia to the system
• Main gases responsible:• Carbon dioxide (CO2)
• Methane (CH4)
• Nitrous oxide (N2O)
• Water vapour (H2O)
• Direct link to the carbon cycle
The carbon cycle
The imbalance of the carbon cycle
• Vegetation / Atmosphere• Respiration : 60 Gt / year• Photosynthesis : 62 Gt / year• Net result = - 2 Gt / year
• Oceans / Atmosphere• In solution : 92 Gt / year• Release : 90 Gt / year• Net result = - 2 Gt / year
• Deforestation : +2 Gt / year• Burning of oil, coal, gas = +6 Gt / year• In total :
• +8 Gt / year released by human activities • THIS IS TWO TIMES TOO MUCH!!
The phenomenon of warming, causes and consequences
Causes of global warming
• Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution:– CO2 : + 31 %
– CH4 : + 150 %
– N2O : + 15 %
• 3 crucial « events »– Industrial Revolution– Post war boom– Globalisation of exchanges
Causes of global warming• Emitting sectors in France:
• And globally :
The coming climate change
• The IPCC:– Notes the state of affairs in research and
technologies– Publishes a report every 4 years (next report
in 2013)– Works with scientific consensus– Prudent in its positions by nature
• Yet they are not reassuring us…
The future evolution of the climate
• Today: the highest concentration of CO2 and CH4 since 400,000 years
• This is only the beginning … if we don’t do anything
Emissions total 2004 – 2030Emissions per inhabitant
The reality for climate change
• No more doubts on the existence of future climate disorders
• Sudden and irreversible changes• The facts confirm the most pessimistic
forecasts
• Yet retroactive changes are not even taken into account: melting of the permafrost, destruction of the ice shelves at the poles …
Arctic sea ice summer 2012
Melting event Greenland 2012
•
Arctic sea ice minimum on the 16th of September 2012
OccupySandy.org
What concrete consequences?
• Central scenarios:– Between + 2°C et + 4°C
• Highly probable scenarios:– Between + 1,1°C et + 6,4°C
The facts confront us with the most pessimistic scenarios
Concrete consequences• With + 2°C :
• Decrease of agricultural yields• Risk of famine : + 200 million people• Lack of water : 1,8 billion people• Rising water levels: : 10 million people• Expansion of zones with malaria : + 50 million people• Extinction of 25 to 40% of all species
• With + 3°C :• - 30% of the yield of wheat in India• Risk of famine : + 600 million people• Lack of water: 4 billion people• Rising water levels: 170 million people• Numerous islands erased from the globe
• With + 4°C : • Collapse of agricultural yields• Expansion of the zones with malaria: + 400 million of people• Rising water levels:330 million people
Stop temperature rise at + 2 °C
• + 2 °C : danger limit
• How do we do it?– Stabilise the temperature– Stabilise the concentrations of GHG’s
(450ppm)– Bring emissions back to natural « recycling »
capacity– Divide worldwide emissions by half– The factor 4 to garanty equal rights for all
Maximum emission rights (TC/inhabitant) to divide world emissions by 2, with 6 billion people…
…or to divide by 3 with 9 billion people
Berger 2005
To stop at + 2 °C
• Emissions must decline before 2015• Developed countries (compared to 1990)
• - 25 to - 40% in 2020• - 80 to - 95% in 2050
• From 2020 on, developed countries must deviate substantially from the trajectory (except Africa)
• World emissions : -50 à -85% en 2050
Climate policies of the
dominant Powers
The general trend
• Subordinate adaptation to the rhythm and needs of capital– Cost-risk analysis (example = Stern report)– Priority of technological solutions– Creation of new markets – New developement cycle of capital : « green
capitalism »• Point to the responsability of emerging countries• Use climate menace to impose their neoliberal
policies
The Kyoto protocol
• Some positive aspects :– « common but differentiated responsabilities »– Concrete targets and sanctions
• BUT numerous problems– Insufficient targets: - 5,2 % (reduced to - 1,7%)– Emissions of maritime and air transport not taken into
account– Carbon sinks = Emission reductions– Possible delocalisation of the efforts (CDM,MOC…)– Emission rights and carbon market: a form of
privatisation of parts of the atmosphere
Recent evolution of policies by the great powers
• Insufficient commitments:• -20% in 2020 for the EU• Obama wants less than Kyoto
• Ever more flexible mecanisms• Their role was limited with Kyoto• New technologies integrated as clean technologies: carbon
sequestration, nuclear, biofuels…• A specific market for the forests:REDD
• Make the lower classes take the brunt of the effort (ex : Carbon Tax )
• The answers to the climate and the economic crisis are contradictory, inconsistent public policies: cars, public transport…
All negotiations ended in failure
• UNEP: market forces, economic growth, green technologies
In the face of a predicted failure, the menace of a barbaric management
• New Orleans• Tuvalu, Vanuatu• The « Climate » report of the Pentagon:• The monstre storm « Sandy »« the numbers of deaths caused by wars, by
famine and by disease will decrease the size of the population which will readapt to the carrying capacity ».
Source: An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for the US National Security, SCWARTZ & RANDALL, 2003
A catastrophy can perhaps be avoided (in part…)
Personal energy savings …
• A policy of« small gestures » is not sufficient
• Fight against attempts to make you feel guilty
• An important part of what you buy, of transportation … is unavoidable
• Necessity of collective action to
make possible a lifestyle that saves energy and is low in carbon use
Saving energy to lower emissions
• What possibilities?– Suppress useless/harmful productions
• Armement, the army…• Numerous manufacturing of chemicals, of fertilisers…• Advertisements
– Energy efficiency• Rehabilitation of housing• Norms for electrical devices• Norms of car engines…
– Reorganisation of society (the most important source)• Ex. of transportation :
– Urbanisation : working class expulsed far from the city centre– Problemes of freight : production « just in time », international
division of labour according to the cost of labour
Renewable energies
• Solar : an IMMENSE potential
• Its caracter limits its valorisation in a capitalist system:– Low density in energy– Difficult to appropriate
• Necessity of a new orientation of research
• Necessity of making available and of large distribution of technologies: not only for those who can pay …
Renewables 8,1%
Budgets R&D Energie (AIE)
Research to be urgently
redirected!
Our anticapitalist project
Necessity of an anticapitalist strategy
• The market is powerless:– A change which is too radical– Time is too short– Any change needs the « agreement of the citizens »
• Capitalism confronts social forces with a dilemma– « To save nature or to increase the conditions of
exploitation of the workers »– Increase the costs of the exploitation of nature versus a
lowering of the cost of the work force• Our ecosocialist project :
– Planning based at the same time on the democratically determined needs and taking into account the ecological problems
Transitional method linked to an emergency program
• A pedagocical role:– Demonstrate that it is possible– Confront capitalism with its contradictions
• Link the social and the ecological dimension– The crises are fed by the same mecanisms:
competition, search for profits, dictatorship of the markets …
– Put the fulfillment of social needs and the respect of ecological equilibria at the centre of our program and our struggles
Examples of sectoral demands • Suppression of unnecessary and harmful industries• The building sector :
– Public service of housing and renovation• Transportation of commodities:
– Ban on long distance transport by road– Public policy for the development of infrastructure for rail transport
• Transportation of people:– Free public transport– Development of the possibilities for public transport infrastructure– Stop the development of suburbia– « reintroduction » of the working classes in the city centres
• The energy sector:– For a public service of the whole of the energy sector– Nationalisation of the big companies in the sector– Decentralisation of the means of production of energy– … in order to allow control by users and by employees
• Agriculture : food sovereignty and organic/ecological farming– Drastic reduction of nitrogen containing fertilizers– A break with the productivist logic in the farming world
An emergency plan withprofound transformations
• Reorganisation and transformation of labour• People’s control on production• Get out of the contradiction consumer/worker:
– Reduction of working hours must be a central axis of our program
• Necessary industrial reconversions :– Garantee employment, contracts, wages and work
collectives – To be applied by the workers themselves