Linhares

• Research in decision-making– Cognitive psychology– Game theory– Management science

• Technology & globalization• Developing high-technology (within FGV’s applied math group)

• Associate member, The Club of Rome

“Twenty years ago some spoke of limits to

growth. But today we now know that growth is the engine of change. Growth is the friend of the environment.

George H.W. Bush, 1992

Who was Bush responding to?Who was Bush responding to?

Dr Hugo Thiemann, who in 1968 asked

for a study

Dr Dennis Meadows who conducted that study in MIT.

“If present growth trends in world population, industrialization, pollution, food production, and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the next 100 years.

The most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrolled decline in both population and industrial capacity.”

Exponential growth

Gas: 2.8% growth/annum

Scenario #2.

One of the long-term scenarios of The Club of Rome.

Collapse in welfare and footprint

WHY?

Resources decline as population and industrial output grow; pollution follows, leading to collapse

The rise in pollution brings a collapse in food production; life expectancy follows

Who do these problems belong to?

NOBODY

there’s not a single country which, alone, could solve them

What’s their solution timeframe?

Much longer than 4 to 8 years

Longer than any single administration can handle

How to avoid disaster?

Negotiation

The Club of Rome brings together businessman, scientists, economists, heads of state, and personalities such as Nobel prize winners and Kings.

Throw in the same room people with different backgrounds, and focus on global issues.

2005 Host: Admiral Sir Mark Stanhope

Int’l Members: Heads of State

• Raymond Barre (prime minister, France)• Frederick W. de Klerk (South Africa)• Michail Gorbachov• Richard von Weizsäcker (Germany)• HRH Juan Carlos I, King of Spain• Luis Lacalle Hererra (Uruguay)• Mario Soares (Portugal)…

Members: Scientists & Economists

• Pentii Malaska• Jay Forrester• Dennis Meadows• Ernesto Zedillo• Patrick Liedtke• Roberto Peccei• Wolfgang Sachs…

Other Brazilian members

• Prof. Paulo Alcantara

• Prof. Candido Mendes

• Prof. Heitor Gurgulino

• Ex-Presidente Fernando Henrique

• Profa. Eda Coutinho Barbosa

• Deputado José Aristodemo Pinotti

• Helio Jaguaribe

Recent inauguration in Brazil• Paulo Skaf• Luiz Lacalle Herrera• Rodrigo Carazo• Luis Carlos Bresser Pereira• Uwe Möller• Tobias Lengsfeld• Paulo Alcantara • Fernando Henrique Cardoso• José Aristodemo Pinotti• Rubens Barbosa• José Serra• Cristóvam Buarque• Carlos Henrique Moreira

• Geraldo Alckmin• Joerg Geier• Marco Maciel• Celso Lafer• Eda Coutinho Barbosa• Jorge Wertheim• Rubens Ricupero• Roberto Gianetti da Fonseca• Alexandre Linhares• Heitor Gurgulino de Souza• Claudia Santiago de Abreu• Carla Winter Afonso• Mario Amato• Paulo Renato