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Ofcom analyst briefing The Communications Market Report 2014 7 August 2014

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Page 1: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

Ofcom analyst briefing The Communications Market Report 2014

7 August 2014

Page 2: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

1

Agenda

Market Overview Jane Rumble, Head of Media Research and Market Intelligence

The telecoms industries Nick Collins, Senior Telecoms Analyst

The audio-visual industries Jonathan Fenn, Senior Media Analyst

Internet and web-based content Andrew Jackson, Senior Convergence Analyst

Post Steven Cape, Senior Analyst, Market Intelligence

Page 3: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

2

Market overview

Jane Rumble, Head of Media Research and Market Intelligence

Page 4: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

3

TV reported the largest rise in revenues

Source: Ofcom/ operators Note: Includes licence fee allocation for radio and TV, Figures are in nominal terms

£billion

Communications industry revenue: telecoms, TV, radio, post

Page 21 Figure 1.1

41.6 41.1 40.5 39.4 39.3 38.6

11.2 11.1 11.8 12.4 12.5 12.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.5

60.9 60.1 60.1 59.8 60.2 60.2

0

20

40

60

80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total

Post

Radio

TV

Telecoms

Annual change

5 year CAGR

0.2% -0.2%

2.9% 1.6%

-2.1% 0.9%

3.4% 2.8%

-1.7% -1.5%

Page 5: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

4

Falling household spend on communications

Source: Ofcom / operators/ ONS Notes: Adjusted for CPI; includes VAT.

27.59 25.67 25.49 23.80 22.85 22.32

52.32 49.95 49.32 48.70 48.23 45.65

11.77 11.59 11.28 11.79 12.49 13.19

29.68 29.75 30.68 31.01 30.59 30.61

126.73 122.19 121.48 120.40 119.20 117.08

5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 5.5% 5.5%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

0

50

100

150

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Post

Radio

Television

Fixed internet

Mobile services

Fixed voice

% of total spend

£ per month (2013 prices)

Page 32 Figure 1.12

Page 6: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

Take-up of connected devices grows

5

39%

14% 11% 5%

51%

22% 24%

7%

61%

24%

44%

11%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014

Source: Ofcom research Page 24 Figure 1.3

Page 7: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

6

Source: Ofcom research, data as at Q1 of each year

Proportion of households/ adults (%)

90 90 93 93 92 92 93 94 94 95

91 90 90 88 87 85 85 84

84 84

60 60 64 67 70 73 76 79 80 82

31

41

52 58

68 71 74 76 75 77

65 65 67

72 72 73

20 21

32 39

49

57

12 15 17 13

5 8 0

20

40

60

80

100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mobile telephony

Fixed telephony

Internet connection

Total broadband

Fixed broadband

Internet on mobile(personal)Mobile broadbanddongle or datacard

Nearly six in ten consumers now report accessing the internet on their mobile

Page 25 Figure 1.4

Page 8: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

7

Proportion of media and communications time, by age

Source: Ofcom

37%

24%

31%

34%

39%

45%

49%

2%

5%

3%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

3%

1%

1%

10%

2%

8%

12%

13%

13%

15%

2%

1%

3%

2%

3%

2%

1%

5%

9%

5%

5%

3%

3%

2%

2%

1%

1%

1%

2%

3%

6%

5%

5%

6%

6%

5%

4%

4%

16%

23%

20%

18%

14%

10%

7%

5%

9%

7%

4%

3%

3%

2%

11%

11%

12%

10%

10%

10%

10%

5%

7%

5%

5%

6%

5%

3%

All adults16+

16-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65+

TV or films on a TV set TV or films on another device Short video clips Radio on radio setRadio on another device Other audio Print media Voice commsText comms Games Other internet media Other non-internet media

Average time spent hours:mins

9:16

10:15

11:20

10:54

11:46

14:07

11:07

Page 60 Figure 1.40

Young people spend as much time on text comms as watching TV or films

Page 9: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

8

The audio-visual industries

Jonathan Fenn, Senior Media Analyst, Market Intelligence

Page 10: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

9

Overall TV revenues were up by 3.4%

Source: Ofcom/broadcasters. Note: Figures expressed in nominal terms.

Total TV industry revenue, by source

4,384 4,655

5,027 5,428 5,512

5,879

3,488 3,143

3,496 3,630 3,551 3,697

2,554 2,555 2,563 2,585 2,671 2,600

793 736 715 723 750 736 0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Subscriptionrevenue

Netadvertisingrevenue

BBC incomeallocated toTV

Otherrevenue

£11,088 £11,220

6.7%

4.1%

6.0%

1.2%

-1.9% -1.5%

£m 1 year 5yr CAGR

Growth to 2013

£11,801 £12,366 3.4% 2.8%

-2.7% 0.4%

£12,485 Total £12,911

Page 161 Figure 2.36

Page 11: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

£2,204m £1,896m £2,144m £2,159m £2,054m £2,059m

£449m £445m

£518m £563m £563m £669m

£835m

£802m

£834m £908m £910m £968m

£3,471m

£3,136m

£3,486m £3,619m £3,551m

£3,697m

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Commercialmultichannels

Commercial PSBportfoliochannels

Main commercialPSB channels

TV advertising revenues up 4%

10

TV net advertising revenues, by source: 2008 - 2013

£m

0%

1 year 5yr CAGR

Growth

-1%

4% 1%

6% 3%

14% 8%

Source: Ofcom/broadcasters. Note: Figures expressed in nominal terms. Page 163 Figure 2.38

Page 12: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

11

Online TV revenues: 2007 - 2013

£m

17.1 39.6 41.0 44.3 61.8 15.0 18.8 22.3 24.5

63.5

111.7

32.2

73.5 112.8

146.4

183.9

21.4 49.6

72.7

140.6

183.3

257.7

363.6

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

FTV AdRevenues

Subscriptions

PPVtransactions

DTOtransactions

Annual Growth

41% 26% 76% 74% 40%

Total

Source: IHS

Online TV revenues grew 41% YoY

Page 130 Figure 2.4

Page 13: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

12

Spend on network TV programmes: 2012 - 2013

£1,772m £2,093m

£848m £747m

£814m £794m

£691m £708m

£492m £486m

£310m £298m £232m £246m £250m £260m £192m £179m

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2012 2013

Channel 5

Other PSB portfolio channels

BBC digital channels

BBC Two

Channel 4

Other digital channels

ITV1/ITV Breakfast

BBC One

Film/Sport channels

+3.7% £m 1 yr change

£5,601m £5,811m

+4%

-1%

+2%

-12%

+18%

-2%

+6%

-4%

-7%

Increase in programme spend driven by sports channels

Source: Ofcom/broadcasters. Note: Figures expressed in nominal prices Page 167 Figure 2.42

Page 14: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

13

224.9 219.2 216.4 205.6

17.2 22.2 24.2 26.2

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013

Timeshift

Live

Average minutes of viewing per day by activity

Source: BARB

4hr 2m 4hr 2m 4hr 1m 3hr 52m

Aver

age

min

s/da

y

TV viewing fell below 4 hours in 2013

Page 154 Figure 2.30

Page 15: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

14

343 345 347 341 311 316 314 309

269 270 269 256

234 232 227 216 199 196 196 185 169 165 157 148 151 147 142 134

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2011 2012 2013

Adults 65+

Adults 55-64

Adults 45-54

Adults 35-44

Adults 25-34

Adults 16-24

Children

The decline was seen across all ages

Source: BARB, Network

Average minutes of television viewing per day, by age, all homes

Average mins/day

Page 181 Figure 2.56

Page 16: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

15

69%

50%

82%

16%

16%

12% 5%

13%

2% 5%

7%

3% 3% 6%

1% 2% 8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

All adults 16-24 65+

Short video clips

Streamed TV or films (paid-for)

Catch-up TV or films (free)

DVD / Blu-ray

Recorded TV

Live TV

16-24s spend less time watching live TV

Proportion of watching activities, by age group

Source: Ofcom Page 64 Figure 1.45

Page 17: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

16

1% 2% 1% 4%

7% 6% 6% 8%

19% 17%

40%

2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 5% 6% 7% 8%

14%

20% 22%

38%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Q1 2013 Q1 2014

BBC iPlayer remains most popular online VOD service Claimed use of selected online VOD services

Source: Decipher mediabug Page 145 Figure 2.19

Page 18: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

17

42

47

38

24

12

20

9

9

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

H2 2012

H2 2013 TV total

PC/Laptop

Tablet

Smartphone

% Share

We are increasingly turning to TV sets and tablets to access on demand content

Estimated share of the UK long-form ‘pull’ VOD market, by device (programmes/films only)

Source: 3Reasons LLP. ‘TV total’ includes VOD via set-top box, internet-enabled sets and TVs connected by games consoles.

Page 147 Figure 2.21

Page 19: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

Take-up of smart TVs among UK TV households

18

7 %

12 %

0 5 10 15

2013

2014

% of UK homes with a smart TV

Smart TV take-up is growing and more people are connecting them

Source: Ofcom technology tracker. Data from Q1 of each year

Consumers’ use of internet connection on smart TVs

18%

Yes

No

82%

23%

77%

2014

2013

Page 132/3 Figure 2.5/7

Source: Ofcom research, Q Have you ever used the internet connection on your smart TV set?

Page 20: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

19

Internet and web-based content

Andrew Jackson, Senior Convergence Analyst, Market Intelligence

Page 21: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

Mobile internet audiences grow while laptop and desktop audiences remain flat

20

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13Fe

b-13

Mar

-13

Apr

-13

May

-13

Jun-

13Ju

l-13

Aug

-13

Sep

-13

Oct

-13

Nov

-13

Dec

-13

Jan-

14Fe

b-14

Mar

-14

Laptop and desktop audience Mobile audience Digital audience

YoY growth YoY growth

11.0% 6.6%

4.2%

Source: comScore MMX, MMX-MP, and GSMA MMM, UK

Active audience on laptop, desktop, and mobile devices Unique audience (000)

1.5%

5.7%

Page 266 Figure 4.20

Page 22: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

Tablets are preferred over laptops, desktops and smartphones

21

29

17 22

30

2 Laptop

Desktop

Smartphone

Tablet

Other

Most important device for internet access by device ownership Adults who own a desktop, laptop, smartphone and a tablet (%)

Source: Ofcom research, Q1 2014 Page 275 Figure 4.32

Page 23: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

We spend 22 billion minutes a month on Google websites

22

0.91

1.00

1.20

1.99

2.51

3.09

3.65

4.06

14.77

22.07

0 5 10 15 20 25

Sky Sites

Glam Media

Amazon Sites

AccuWeather Sites

eBay

Microsoft Sites

BBC Sites

Yahoo Sites

Facebook

Google Sites

Source: comScore MMX Multi-Platform, UK, March 2014

Top ten internet properties among the digital audience, by time spent Total Minutes (billions)

Page 285 Figure 4.39

Page 24: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

Digital advertising was worth £6.3bn across internet, TV and press brands

23

3,219

4,516

575

184

537

990

1,882

3,794

4,642

6,300

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Cinema

Radio

Out of home

Direct Mail

Press brands

TV

Internet

Non-Digital

Digital

Source: AA/Warc Expenditure Report, July 2014

UK advertising expenditure: 2013 Expenditure (£ millions)

Page 248 Figure 4.2

Page 25: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

Digital display advertising grew by more than 22% in 2013

24

Source: IAB / PwC Digital Adspend 2008 – 2013

Digital advertising expenditure, by type: 2008 - 2013 £ millions

684 755 1,050 1,280 1,479 1,862 1,942 2,097

2,245 2,708

3,087 3,495

713 658 718

759 818

887

3,350 3,541 4,097

4,822 5,448

6,300

0

2000

4000

6000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Other

Classifieds

Paid for search

Display

Page 249 Figure 4.3

Page 26: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

Mobile advertising spend doubled to more than £1bn in 2013

25

29 38 83 203

529

1,031

20 21 32

39 49

61

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Mobile Advertising Expenditure Internet on mobile phone take-up

Source: IAB / PwC Digital Adspend 2008-2013; Ofcom consumer research.

Mobile advertising expenditure, and mobile internet take-up Expenditure (£ millions) \ UK adult take-up (%)

Page 251 Figure 4.5

Page 27: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

Take-up of DVDs and Blu-Ray discs holds steady between 2005 and 2014…

26

93 92 88 81 84 79

31

80

0

20

40

60

80

100

Books Music CDs Video Cassettes DVDs*

2005

2014

Source: Ofcom Media Literacy Research 2005, Kantar Media Omnibus 2014 * Includes Blu-Ray discs in 2014

Take-up of physical media Adults (%)

Page 253 Figure 4.8

Page 28: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

…but average DVD and Blu-Ray disc collection size increases

27

89 90

45 45

86 84

36

68

0

20

40

60

80

100

Books Music CDs Video Cassettes DVD discs*

2005

2014

Source: Ofcom Media Literacy Research 2005, Kantar Media Omnibus 2014 * Includes Blu-Ray discs in 2014

Size of physical media collection Adults with collection (%)

Page 254 Figure 4.10

Page 29: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

There are generational differences in music consumption…

28

63 72

85 91 91 89

82 70 67

47

32

11

88

70 58

39

22

7

0

20

40

60

80

100

16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Physical Music Collection Digital Music Collection Music Streaming

Source: Kantar Media Omnibus 2014

Take up of physical music, digital music and music streaming, by age Adults (%)

Page 258 Figure 4.15

Page 30: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

…but digital video streaming has leap-frogged digital video ownership for all ages

29

40

25

6

82

66

28 29 17

4 0

20

40

60

80

100

16-34 35-54 55+

Download To Own Video Streaming SVOD

Source: Kantar Media Omnibus 2014

Take up of digital video services, by age Adults (%)

Page 259 Figure 4.16

Page 31: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

30

The telecoms industries

Nick Collins, Senior Telecoms Analyst

Page 32: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

31

Summary • Total telecoms revenue but fixed broadband revenue

• Total fixed lines but retail fixed voice revenues

• Fixed call volumes while non-traditional communication • Retail mobile revenue as SMS use • Mobile data connections and use of mobile data services

• ADSL broadband connections while superfast broadband take-up

Page 33: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

Total telecoms revenues fell by 1.7% in 2013

32

Source: Ofcom / operators / IDC Page 324 Figure 5.26

10.7 10.5 10.1 8.9 8.3 7.9

13.4 12.9 12.5 12.3 12.3 12.4

14.8 15.0 15.1 15.4 15.9 15.6

2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7

41.6 41.1 40.5 39.4 39.3 38.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Corporatedata services

Retail mobile

Retail fixed

Wholesaleservices

Revenue (£bn)

Page 34: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

Average household telecoms spend fell by 2.9% in 2013

33

Source: Ofcom / operators / ONS Page 346 Figure 5.54

27.59 25.67 25.49 23.80 22.85 22.32

52.32 49.95 49.32 48.70 48.23 45.65

11.77 11.59 11.28 11.79 12.49 13.19

£91.67 £87.21 £86.09 £84.29 £83.58 £81.17

3.9% 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

0

50

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Fixed internet

Mobile voice &data

Fixed voice

As a proportion oftotal householdspend

£ per month (2013 prices) As a % of total expenditure

Page 35: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

Total outgoing UK fixed and mobile voice call minutes fell by 3.9% in 2013

Source: Ofcom / operators Page 326 Figure 5.28

141 128 123 111 103 92

85 90 98 103 105 110

33 36 33 29 27 24

259 255 254 243 235 226

0

100

200

300

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Pre-paymobile

Post-paymobile

Fixed

Billions of minutes

Page 36: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

Fixed voice

Page 37: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

Retail fixed voice revenues declined by 1.7%

36

Source: Ofcom / operators

Page 328 Figure 5.32

5.3 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.5

1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3

1.7 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.9

1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8

10.2 9.6 9.3

8.9 8.6 8.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Other calls

Calls to mobiles

International calls

UK geographiccalls

Line rental

Revenue (£bn)

Page 38: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

The real price of a basket of residential fixed voice services increased in 2013

37

Source: Ofcom / operators

Page 353 Figure 5.62

18.37 17.56 17.98 18.01 18.39 18.71

1.22 1.00 0.92 0.76 0.69 0.63 2.15 2.14 2.21 2.15 2.01 1.97

21.74 20.70 21.11 20.92 21.08 21.30

0

5

10

15

20

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Calls to mobiles

International calls

Fixed access &UK geographiccalls

£ per month (2013 prices)

-4.8% 2.0% -0.9% 0.8% 1.1% Annual change -0.7%

Page 39: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

The decline in fixed voice call volumes accelerated in 2013

38

Source: Ofcom / operators Page 330 Figure 5.34

91.9 85.1 82.8 74.6 69.0 60.8

7.1 6.7 6.7

6.5 5.8

4.9

13.5 12.3 11.8

10.3 9.4

8.4

28.2 23.7 21.7

19.7 18.3

17.5

140.7 127.9 123.0

111.1 102.5

91.6

0

50

100

150

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Other calls

Calls tomobiles

Internationalcalls

UK geographiccalls

Minutes (billions)

Page 40: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

39

Source: Ofcom research, data as at Q1 of each year Page 351 Figure 5.60

Use of non-traditional communication services is increasing

80 71

52

22 17

4

81 78

54

28 24

8

83 78

53

35 32

14

0

20

40

60

80

100

Mobilemessaging

Email Socialnetworking

sites

VoIP (voicecall only)

Mobile instantmessaging

Video calls

2012

2013

2014

Proportion of respondents (per cent)

Page 41: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

The ability to video call and lower prices are the main advantages of using VoIP

40

Source: YouGov online survey Page 314 Figure 5.13

2%

9%

15%

17%

28%

38%

44%

55%

57%

61%

Other

I can see whether others are online

Call quality is better if the connection is fast enough

I can use three-way calling

I can send/receive message or data files while talking

I can receive and make calls from wherever I am

I can use video communication

Costs less than using my landline

Costs less than using my mobile phone

I can see people through video calling

% of all adults in the UK who use VoIP

Page 42: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

The total number of fixed lines increased by 2.4%, although business lines fell in 2013

41

Page 331 Figure 5.36 Source: Ofcom / operators

23.5 23.4 23.8 23.9 24.4 25.0

10.7 10.2 9.7 9.4 8.8 8.3

34.2 33.5 33.4 33.3 33.2 33.4

0

10

20

30

40

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Business

Residential

Lines (millions)

Page 43: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

Fixed broadband services

Page 44: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

Almost four in five UK premises are able to receive superfast broadband services

43

Source: Ofcom / operators, June 2014 data

Proportion of premises (per cent)

9 11 1

35 40

1

34 35

31

78 85

34

0

20

40

60

80

100

UK UK Urban UK Rural

Fibre-only

Cable and fibre

Cable-only

Nations reports Figures 5.2, 5.3 and 5.4

Page 45: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

The number of ADSL broadband connections fell for the first time in 2013

44

Source: Ofcom / operator data Page 332 Figure 5.38

Connections (millions)

8.1 8.0 7.8 8.1 7.5 6.6

5.5 6.4 7.5 7.9 8.8 9.2

3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3

17.3 18.2 19.5

20.6 21.7 22.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Others

Fibre

Cable

LLU-ADSL

Non-LLUADSL

Page 46: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

Over a quarter of the fixed broadband connections were superfast in Q1 2014

45

Source: Ofcom / operator data Superfast is defined as a package having a headline speed greater than 30Mb/s

Page 310 Figure 5.8

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.3 3.2 3.9 4.4 5.0 5.6 6.1

0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.8 2.8 4.1 5.2 6.4 8.8

10.9 14.9

17.5 19.9

22.3 24.6

26.7

0

10

20

30

0

2

4

6

8

10

2010

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2011

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2012

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2013

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2014

Q1

Superfastconnections(left axis)

Superfast as a% of allconnections(right axis)

Per cent Connections (millions)

Page 47: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

46

Average price of a fixed broadband connection increased in real terms in 2013

Source: Ofcom / operators Page 356 Figure 5.66

£19.29 £17.81 £16.44 £16.55 £16.81 £16.96

0

5

10

15

20

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

£ per month

Average actual speed

-11.2% -7.7% +0.7% -7.7% +1.6% +0.9% Annual change

4.1Mbit/s (April)

6.2Mbit/s (November)

3.6Mbit/s (November)

7.6Mbit/s (November)

12.0Mbit/s (November)

17.8Mbit/s (November)

Page 48: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

Increasing superfast broadband take-up is driving fixed internet revenue growth

47

Source: Ofcom / operators Page 332 Figure 5.37

0.1 0.1 0.1

3.1 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.7 4.0

3.2 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.7

4.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Broadband

Narrowband

Revenue (£bn)

Page 49: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

48

Source: Ofcom research, data as at Q1 of each year

Satisfaction with fixed broadband speed has increased

Page 359 Figure 5.71

45 42 39 39 41 47

36 38 41 41 39 37

81 80 80 80 81 84

0

20

40

60

80

100

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Fairlysatisfied

Verysatisfied

Proportion of all adults with service (per cent)

Page 50: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

Mobile telecoms

Page 51: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

The total number of mobile subscriptions fell for the first time in 2013

50

Source: Ofcom / operators Note: Excludes M2M connections.

Page 338 Figure 5.45

Subscriptions (millions)

47.5 47.6 44.9 42.5 39.9 36.1

30.0 33.0 36.7 39.8 43.5 46.9

77.5 80.6 81.6 82.4 83.4 83.1

0

20

40

60

80

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Post-pay

Pre-pay

Page 52: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

Falling SMS use resulted in a decline in retail mobile revenues in 2013

51

Source: Ofcom / operators

Page 334 Figure 5.40

6.3 6.1 6.4 6.8 7.3 7.8

5.1 4.7 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.3

2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 1.8

0.6 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.7 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.4 15.9 15.6

0

5

10

15

20

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Out-of bundledata

Out-of-bundlemessaging

Out-of-bundlecalls

Access andbundled services

Revenue (£bn)

Page 53: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

The real price of a basket of mobile services fell by 3.5% in 2013

52

Source: Ofcom / operators

Page 360 Figure 5.72

10.09 9.19 9.26 9.64 10.10 10.12

5.07 4.16 3.49 2.92 2.47 1.99

5.77 3.56 2.88 2.43 2.26 2.19

£20.93

£16.90 £15.63 £14.99 £14.82 £14.30

0

5

10

15

20

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Meteredmessaging

Metered voice

Line rental fee,UK landlinecalls andinclusive calls,texts and data

£ per month (2013 prices)

-13.7% -19.2% -7.5% -4.1% -1.2% -3.5% Annual change

Page 54: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

53

More than half of new post-pay mobile contracts cost less than £20 a month

Source: GfK Retail and Technology UK Ltd

Page 361 Figure 5.74

12 12 12 13 15 18 17 18 20 24 26 26 29 30 29 27 30 31 32 34 35 20 21 23 23 22 20 19 18 17 18 19 20 20 18 16 13 13 12 15 16 19 10 13 13 13 13 13 15 16 14 13 13 11 11 9 11 11 11 13 12 10 11 7

10 10 11 11 14 15 17 21 14 12 10 10 10 12 13 13 13 12 11 9 14

13 12 13 12 13 11 10 7 8 8 9 9 11 10 9 9 11 11 9 8 26 19 15 15 14 11 13 13 12 14 14 15 14 15 16 17 13 13 11 10 9 12 13 15 12 13 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 7 6 6 10 10 7 7 11 8

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2009

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2010

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2011

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2012

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2013

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2014

Q1

£40+

£35-39.99

£30-34.99

£25-29.99

£20-24,99

£15-19.99

£0-14.99

Proportion of sales (%)

Page 55: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

There were 55 million mobile data connections in the UK at the end of 2013

54

Source: Ofcom / operators

Page 338 Figure 5.46

4.9 5.2 5.1 4.9

24.6 30.1

38.4 44.5

3.2 4.1

5.1 5.6

32.6 39.4

48.6 55.0

0

20

40

60

2010 2011 2012 2013

M2M

Internet onhandset

Dedicatedmobilebroadband

Connections (millions)

Page 56: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

55

Use of mobile data services is increasing

Source: Ofcom research, data as at Q1 of each year

Page 367 Figure 5.83

40

29

19 19

47

36 29

26

52 45

35 34

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Web browsing Emailing Downloading apps Instant messaging

2012

2013

2014

Proportion of mobile users using service (per cent)

Page 57: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

4G mobile covers nearly three quarters of UK premises

56

Source: Ofcom based on operator data, June 2014 data

73.0 79.3

34.8

0

20

40

60

80

UK UK Urban UK rural

Proportion of premises with 4G coverage (per cent)

Nations reports Figure 5.7

Page 58: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

4G take-up growing steadily

57

Source: Ofcom research April 2014

Page 306 Figure 5.3

12%

88%

4G

Non-4G

Proportion of mobile users (%)

Page 59: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

58

Post

Steven Cape, Senior Analyst, Market Intelligence

Page 60: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

Total mail revenues have risen by 2.9%...

59

6,953 6,837 6,653 6,899 7,303 7,514

6,841 6,697 6,505

6,744 7,141 7,339

6,120 5,772 5,425 5,475 5,696 5,844

721 924 1,080 1,270 1,445 1,495

112 140 142 150 157 163 0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total market

Royal Mailtotal

Royal Mailend-to-end

Royal Mailaccess

Accessoperators

Revenue (£m)

Source: Ofcom / operators

Page 380 Figure 6.7

Page 61: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

…while mail volumes have declined by 5%

60

20,577 18,651

17,546 16,676 15,545 14,764 15,574

12,534 10,629

9,502 8,299 7,523 5,003

6,105 6,906 7,166 7,228 7,185

12 11 9 18 56 0

6,000

12,000

18,000

24,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total mail

Royal Mail end-to-end

Royal Mailaccess

Other operatorsend-to-endletters

Volume (million items)

Source: Ofcom / operators

Page 381 Figure 6.8

Page 62: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

25% 33%

40% 43% 46% 49%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

61

Access mail accounts for 49% of total mail

Proportion of access in total mail volume

Year-on-year growth rate of access volumes

39.1% 20.3% 14.8% 2.2% 0.8% -0.6%

Source: Ofcom / operators

Page 382 Figure 6.9

Page 63: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

End-to-end volume has grown but is less than 0.5% of total volume

62

11.8 11.3 8.5 18.0

56.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Volume (million items)

Source: Ofcom / operators

Page 383 Figure 6.10

Page 64: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

46

82

38 17

32 24 24 32

0

30

60

90

Directmail

Transactionalmail

Catalogues /brochures

Subscriptionmagazines

Largerparcels

Smallerparcels

Personal letters

Invitations /greetings

cards

63 63

The majority of mail received by consumers is sent by businesses

Proportion of respondents (%)

Source: Ofcom research

Page 397 Figure 6.28

Business to consumer Parcels Consumer to consumer

Page 65: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

Residential consumers are more likely to receive parcels from Royal Mail

64

Proportion of consumers reporting delivery of parcels, by company Company parcels delivered by (% of all who have received a parcel in the past week)

50%

21%

19%

10%

Only RoyalMail

Royal Mailand anyother/sOnly other/s

Don't know

71

9 8 7 6 6 4 4 4 0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

Page 396 Figure 6.26 Source: Ofcom research

Page 66: The Communications Market Report 2014 - Home - OfcomThe Communications Market Report 2014 . 7 August 2014 . 1 Agenda . ... Fixed voice % of total spend £ per month (2013 prices) Page

65

Questions?