The Consequences of the First Brain Drain

in U.S. History

Monday, May 2, 2011

11:00 AM - 12:15 PM

Percent of All Employed College Graduates Working in a STEM Field

Ten Years after Graduation

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1977/87 1986/96 1993/03

Cohort

Pecent of Em

plo

yed College

Graduates

Percent of STEM college graduates

enrolled/employed in STEM ten years>graduation

by level of STEM preparation (college GPA quintile)

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

1977/87 1986/96 1993/03

Cohort

Perc

ent

of STEM

Colle

ge G

raduate

s

All STEM College Graduates

)Most Prepared (Quintile 5

Quintile 4

Quintile 3

Quintile 2

)Least Prepared (Quintile 1

Percentage of all employed college graduates

working in a STEM field ten years after graduation

1977/87 1986/1996

Cohort

1993/2003

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Percent

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

Percent

1977/87 1986/96 1993/03

Cohort

All STEM college graduates

Most prepared (quintile 5)

Quintile 4

Quintile 3

Quintile 2

Least prepared (quintile 1)

U.S. trends in student mathematics performanceNational Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP 2008)

Source: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences,

National Center for Education Statistics,

National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), various years, 1973–2008 Long-Term Trend Mathematics Assessments.

239 242219 219 219 222

230 230 231 231 232

241

279 281266 264269 269 270

273 274 274 276 281

305 306

304 300 298302 305 307 306 307 308 307

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

1973

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

1978

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

Scores

Age 17

Age 13

Age 9

1973 1978 1982 1986 1990 1992 1994 1996 1999 2004 2008

Extrapolated

data

Original assessment data Revised

assessment

data

U.S. trends in student mathematics performanceNational Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP 2008)

Source: NCES The Nation's Report Card: Trends in Academic Progress in Reading and Mathematics 2008

http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/pubs/main2008/2009479.asp

Changes since 1973

Age Group White Black Hispanic

Age 9 ∆ 25 points ∆ 34 points ∆ 32 points

Age 13 ∆ 16 points ∆ 34 points ∆ 29 points

Age 17 ∆ 4 points ∆ 17 points ∆ 16 points

U.S.33%

Other OECD countries

25%

Japan12%

Germany8%

Korea7%

Canada5%

France5%

Turkey5%

U.S.14%

Other OECD countries

29%

Korea16%

Japan15%

Germany11%

Canada5%

France5%

U.K.5%

U.S.33%

Other OECD countries

25%

Japan17%

U.K.11%

Germany9%

Canada5%

U.S. share of all OECD high-performing students:

Science, math and reading

Source: These figures are reproduced from: Salzman and Lowell, 2008; “Making the Grade” Nature 453, 28-30].

Science Math Reading

Computer & information science graduates

U.S. citizen & permanent resident

0

10,000

20,000

40,000

30,000

50,000

60,000

BS degrees

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

MS & PhD degrees

Petroleum engineering starting salaries & graduates

Total and U.S. [citizen & perm. resident] grads

Source: IPEDS;

Tabulations: Kuehn & Salzman, 2010

Salary data from BLS & NACE

$43,674

$50,400

$55,987

$61,516

$86,220

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

1997 1999 2003 2005 2010 100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Total BS

US BS

Intersection of highest degree in

science & engineering and S&E

occupation: 2006

STEM managers by field of highest degree

1993--2003

Source: These figures are reproduced from: Lowell, Salzman, Bernstein, and Busquets, forthcoming

Engineering15%

Social Sciences8%

Physical and Biological

7%

Math & Computers4%

Health and Medical2%

Non-STEM64%

1993

Engineering8%

Social Sciences12%

Physical and Biological

7%

Math & Computers5%

Health and Medical1%

Non-STEM67%

2003

S&E managers 1993 -- 2003

As percent of total engineers/social scientists

Source: These figures are reproduced from: Lowell, Salzman, Bernstein, and Busquets, forthcoming.

1993

2003

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

% of all Eng in S&E Mgt

% of all SocSci in S&E Mgt

12.1%

6.6%

20.4%

26.9%1993 2003

Brain drain?

Change in “stay rates”–temporary resident Ph.D.s Comparison of doctorate holders in 2007 to average during 2000-2005

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

One-year stay rate

Two-year stay rate

Five-year stay rate

Ten-year stay rate

Average stay rate

Base period (2000-2005) average = 1.0

Source: Oak Ridge Associated Universities; Finn 2010.

Brain drain?

Change in “stay rates”–temporary resident Ph.D.sComparison of doctorate holder stay rates 5 to 10 years post-Ph.D.

Source: Oak Ridge Associated Universities; Finn 2010.

Pe

rce

nt

wh

o s

tay i

n U

.S.

Immigration yield for Top 10 H-1B employers

FY07-09

H-1B

Rank Company

H-1Bs

FY07-09

Greencard

Apps

FY07-09

Immigration

Yield

5 Tata 2,368 0 0%

3 Satyam 3,557 37 1%

2 Wipro 7,216 125 2%

10 Accenture 1,396 28 2%

1 Infosys 9,625 476 5%

9 Intel 1,454 163 11%

8 IBM 1,550 382 25%

6 Deloitte 1,896 588 31%

7 Cognizant 1,669 702 42%

4 Microsoft 3,318 2,214 67%Source: DHS USCIS: Initial H-1B I-129 Petitions FY07-09 & PERM Data FY07-09/ Ron Hira RIT, 2011.

Reasons to pursue U.S. higher education

N=981

Survey in 2010 of nearly 1,000 Indians who are currently undertaking, or have completed, graduate study in the US.

Source: Kumar, Finegold, Winkler, 2011 “Will they return?” Report, School Management and Labor Relations, Rutgers University 2011.

233 238 234

172

219212 211 205

148

191

21 27 29 24 28

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Total US Citizens/ Perm. Res. Foreign Students

Jobs accepted in the U.S. by

Anderson MBA graduates

24 2629

35

22

5 61

8

1

19 20

28 27

21

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Total US Citizens/ Perm. Res. Foreign Students

Jobs accepted outside the U.S. by

Anderson MBA graduates

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

ManagementSTEM

UCLA applications from foreign students

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

Management

STEM

UCLA total enrollment by foreign students