the contribution of potatoes to global food security · the contribution of potatoes to global food...
TRANSCRIPT
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THE CONTRIBUTION OF POTATOES TO GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY
Pamela K. AndersonDirector General, International Potato Center
7 September 2010Potato Europe 2010
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..to achieve food security, well-being and gender equity for poor people in root and tuber farming and food systems in the developing world.
We do this through research and innovation in science, technology and capacity strengthening.
CIP’S mission
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1. Cali (Colombia)2. Quito (Ecuador)3. Lima (Peru)4. Huancayo (Peru)5. San Ramon (Peru)6. Cochabamba (Bolivia)7. Sao Carlos (Brazil)
8. Kumasi (Ghana)9. Cotonou (Benin)10. Huambo (Angola)11. Addis Ababa (Ethiopia)12. Nairobi (Kenya)13. Kabale (Uganda)14. Ruhengeri (Rwanda)15. Lilongwe (Malawi)16. Blantyre (Malawi)17. Chimoio (Manica Province, Mozambique)
18. Tashkent (Uzbekistan)19. New Delhi (India)20. Shillong (India)21. Kathmandu (Nepal)22. Dhaka (Bangladesh) 23. Bhubaneswar (India)24. Beijing (China)25. Hanoi (Vietnam)26. Lambang (Indonesia)27. Los Banos (Philippines)28. Manokwari (Papua Indonesia)29. Wamena (Papua Indonesia)30. Honar Honiara (Solomon Islands)
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The spread of the potato around the
world from Peru
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FOOD CONSUMPTION
511421
207116
103 66
0
100
200300
400
500
600R
ice
(Pad
dy
Whe
at
Pota
toes
Mai
ze
Cas
sava
Swee
tPo
tato
es
Millions
tonn
es
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Potato production shift
Source: FAOSTAT
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0
5
10
15
20
25
1962 1972 1982 1992 2002
year
kg/c
ap/y
ear
Central America
Africa South ofSahara
Low -IncomeCountries
Low -Income FoodDeficit
Regional trends in potato consumption
Source: FAOSTAT
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POTATO CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE
DEVELOPING WORLD
GLOBAL TRENDS
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Drivers of Growth in Potato Production
Potatoes are
Cheap and Nutritious
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan-
00
Jul-0
0
Jan-
01
Jul-0
1
Jan-
02
Jul-0
2
Jan-
03
Jul-0
3
Jan-
04
Jul-0
4
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Inde
x Ja
n '0
0=10
0
Crude Petroleum
Wheat
Maize
Soybean Oil
Between 2000 and 2008 wheat, maize, and rice prices increased dramatically
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Food riots a mass phenomenon when prices spike
Source: J. von Braun based on news reports. Price are data from FAO 2009
Price spike
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Drivers of Growth in Potato Production
May 2008 – FAO study
Potato – the antidote to high food prices
While grain prices were sky-rocketing, potato prices around
the world were stable
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(Per 100 g, after boiling in skin and peeling before consumption) Source: United States Department of Agriculture, National Nutrient Database
Nutritional Security –Nutrient Content of Potatoes
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Drivers of Growth in Potato Production
Potatoes are
Multi-purpose
Income Generators
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Drivers of Growth in Potato Production
Growth rates for the roots and tubers
(including potatoes)are by far out-performing
the major grain crops
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Growth rates of yields for major cereals in developing countries are slowing
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003
Aver
age
annu
al gr
owth
rate
(%) maize
rice
wheat
Source: World Bank, 2007. World Development Report 2008: Agriculture for development.
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Yam 2.9%
Potato 2.7%
Cassava 1.9%
Sweetpotato 1.0%
GROWTH RATES OF
ROOTS & TUBERS (1993 – 2020)
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Drivers of Growth in Potato Production
Potatoes are efficient
Potatoes produce more energy per unit land and time
than any other major staple crop
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MJ/ ha / day
Potato 216
Yam 182
Maize 159
Sweetpotato 152
Rice 121
Cassava 121
Production of edible energy
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Asia – Increasing
productivity
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Food Security is a critical challenge in Asia
China
DPR Korea
Myanmar Lao PDR
Cambodia Vietnam
Indonesia
Philippines
PNGChinaAsian “tigers”Constrained economies
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0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Years
(Mill
ions
tons
)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
(Mill
ions
has
)
ProductionArea
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Years
(Mill
ions
tons
)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
(Mill
ions
has
)
ProductionArea
Source: www.faostat.org
China
India
Production and Area Growth:India and China
A half century of expansion
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THE CHINA CHALLENGE –FOOD SECURITY
The Chinese population is expected to continue growing and stabilize at about 1.5 billion. They have targeted 95% food self-sufficiency, which means that over the next 2 decades food production will need to increase by 100,000,000 T/year, and that 50,000,000 T/year could come from potatoes alone
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Index of production, area and yield in China
2006Production – 70 million MTArea – 4.9 million haYield – 14.4 t/ha Source: www.faostat.org
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
ProductionAreaYield
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Virus
Late blight
Clean seed
Bacterial wilt
National average(14.4 t/ha)
+ 6.0 tons
+ 5.1 tons
+ 2.8 tons+ 0.6 tons
Yield(t/ha)
Potato yield gap analysis (expert panel)
Source: a) Keith Fuglie. 2007. Research Priority Assessment for the CIP 2005-2015 Strategic Plan: Projecting Impacts on Poverty, Employment, Health and Environment.b) Yearbook of China Agricultural Statistics. 2005
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Potato production and poverty in China
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CIP-CHINA CENTER FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC 4 February 2010
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Sub-saharan Africa –
Increasing rural incomes
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Tremendous growth over last decade in area planted to potato in
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)Major African Field Crops Area Growth
1994-2005 (source www.faostat.org)
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Years
Sweet potatoesPotatoesBeans, dryYamsWheatCassavaRice, paddyMaize
Scott et al. (2000) prediction 250% increase in SSA potato demand between 1993 & 2020 on target!
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Most of the growth was in the ECA
Sub-region
Share of
areaASARECA 71%
SADC 21%
CORAF 8%
!"#$%&'()))*+,"-.,.*"$/
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Percent change in potato production in selected countries, 1994-2004
(3yrs average)
-200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
1
% change
Burkina Faso
Jamaica
Bahrain
Eritrea
Estonia
Turkmenistan
Azerbaijan, Republic of
Nigeria
Rwanda
Angola
Source: FAOSTAT
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Ware Potatoes 80%
Seed Potatoes 10% Waste 10%
Ware Potatoes used as boiled vegetable 85%
Processing 15%
Chips 90% Crisps 10%
Utilization of potatoes in the ECA countries
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A Masaai group in Kenya supply Steers and Njoro canning with processing potatoes about 8 tons/week
Receive > US $2000/acre/year
From barley they get about $US 200/year/acre
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Virus
Late blight
Clean seed
Bacterial wilt
World average
+ 6.0 tons
+ 5.1 tons
+ 2.8 tons+ 0.6 tons
Yield(t/ha)
Potato yield gap analysis
Source: a) Fuglie, 2007. Research Priority Assessment for the CIP 2005-2015 Strategic Plan: Projecting Impacts on Poverty, Employment, Health and Environment.
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Demand for potato seed is great,but often unfulfilled
Availability of certified (formal) seed as a percentage of need
Kenya 1%Peru 2%China 20%Argentina 60%United Kingdom 66%Holland 99%
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Aeroponics system yielded multiplication rates of up to 50:1 with CIP varieties
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Benefits of Aeroponics
Increase in multiplication rate from 5:1 to 50:1Reduced field generations- less disease and less pressure
on land
No need to sterilize substrateBan on methyl bromideRising energy prices
1% of conventional water usageReduction in cost of pre-basic tuber production from
12 cents to 4 cents
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1. Ethiopia
2. Kenya
3. Uganda
4. Rwanda
5. Malawi
6. Angola
7. Tanzania
Public – Private Seed Systems
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Latin America –
Increasing nutrition
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Age: 2 yr 9 mo
BW: 10.7 kg
Height: 78.3 cm
Age: 2 yr 6 mo
BW: 11.6 kg
Height: 86.4 cm
Girls from ANDAHUAYLAS(Photograph: Courtesy of UNICEF)
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% of Children < 5 yr with Cronic Malnutrition
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Variability in the micronutrient concentration of the potato germplasm
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Previous reports
HarvestPlusCIP
Fe (mg / kg) 8 ! 26 12 ! 37
Zn (mg / kg) 8 !17 8 ! 31
Vitamin C (mg / 100 g)
42 ! 100 22 ! 140
Phenolic Compounds (mg / 100 g)
40 - 1108 115 ! 2401
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Ranges of Fe in potatoes and projected advance by selection
0
10
20
30
40
50
Literature
Clones
Progenies
20052006
20072008
2009
mg
Fe/k
g dw
12
37 37
19
48
H+ 2004-5
Breeding Target
19 + 20
10% bioavailability800 g/day
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Target countries for potential impact on nutrition from consumption of biofortified potato
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1. Increase field productivity
2. Increase system productivity
3. Link small farmers to market
4. Develop public-private partnerships
5. Biofortification
6. Public awareness – benefits of potato for the global food security
Increasing Potato’s Contribution to Food Security – The Challenges
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