THE

CRUSADESOF

21ST CENTURY

BY RIAZ AMINVol-II

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CONTENTS

RECOLLECT AND RECOUNT.4ANGRY AFGHANS....10FOUR RISK FACTORS.33WE GOT HIM.65KHAN PARDONED...82

RISKS IN AVERTING RISKS109BALLOTS AND BODY BAGS135BUNNY AND BUNNY HUG152TERRORISM AT ITS BEST...174WISHING BUSH WELL..190ALLY WITH NO CHOICE.204

HUMILIATING THE HUMANITY ..221PEACE IN PIECES..245PUSHED AND PAMPERED...259NEED TO BE THERE..278WAR WENT ON...303

SMOULDERING SOVEREIGNTY326SISTANI SAVED SADR..347SKIRMISHES OF CIVILIZATIONS.366HARRASSED BUT HOPEFUL...392THREE YEARS OF TERROR ...411

AFGHANS DEMOCRATIZED...439UGLY UNION...457IN PURSUIT OF PEACE.479FALL OF FALLUJAH.505DISCOURAGING SIGNS527

PUSHING FOR POLLS ......549THIRD PARTY THREAT...568OPPORTUNITY IN CALAMITY .590ELECTION ENTANGLEMENT. ..613DISCOURAGING SIGNS640

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FOR SOFT IMAGE .........661AFGHANS AT THEIR OWN......679WUTHERING WAR ...699PROCESS SANS PROMISE ..715PHANTOMS FOR PAKISTAN..735

SHIITE IRAQ EMERGED .....765CRUSADES ELSEWHERE........781LABRADOR ON LEASH ...800IRAQI INFERNO.....826DESECRATION AND TORTURE 846

AMERICAN OUTPOST .....872PROCESS SANS SOLUTIONS...891TALK OF TIMETABLE......917SCARRED IMAGE.......941DEMOCRACY BY DEADLINES...966

RECOLLECTING

The world sympathized with Americans over collapse of twin towers

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and resultant killings. Americans decided to take revenge. In twenty-eightmonths they have caused hundreds of collapses and thousands of deaths.These were not condoled by many. The war continues. More ravages are instore.

One should pause and recount some facts, established and almostestablished. This war has targeted Muslims only. It is Crusades. This versionof Crusades has not been waged for any holy cause. It is the war fordestruction of Muslim countries aimed at pushing them back to Stone Age,where they belong to.

The countries nourishing or suspected of nourishing ill-will for theCrusaders are pushed on priority. Having pushed them, it is ensured that theystay there for long. The first goal towards achieving this aim is to destroyMilitary capability, even the one that is likely to be acquired. They aredeprived of offensive capability completely and defensive abilities arereduced to the minimum. While doing so the victims are made to believethat possession of military prowess causes socio-economic problems.

Within Islamic World there are monsters like al-Qaeda having ill-willfor the civilized world. They wage Jihad for fulfillment of their sinisteraims. Waging war without regular troops is terrorism. Those who do that areterrorists posing grave threat to the lonely superpower. They are killed orcaptured.

Their economic wealth is plundered and the one that cannot beplundered is destroyed. The victims are consoled with promises ofreconstruction. In reconstruction it is ensured that the level of subsistence isnot surpassed.

Political instability is caused by thrusting systems appropriate for thispurpose. Democracy is used as ploy. Those who resist are toppled on thepretext of regime change and others are eliminated through target killing.Promise of liberation is used to enslave them politically. All these measuresaim at spreading anarchy and preserving disunity of Muslim World.

Religious and cultural values are subverted with rhetoric ofenlightened moderation. Jihad is considered most dangerous out of all thevalues. Subversion of this concept is the key to break the will of Muslims fortheir self-preservation.

The Crusades have sufficient military strength to deal with entireMuslim World unilaterally. The principle of economy of effort, however,dictates the strategy to muster support of established anti-Islam forces. To

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this end freedom struggles of Muslims are declared cross border terrorism.It helps in isolating Muslims to facilitate their tackling one by one. To

eliminate the chances of Muslims presenting a united front some of them areneutralized by giving them the choice to step on to their side. This helpspreserving their disunity and their piecemeal annihilation.

Subversion of the spirit of Jihad constitutes important part ofpsychological strategy. This can be achieved by diverting their attentiontowards Jihad-e-Akbar and by throwing Mulla out of the Mosque as wassuggested by Satan in Iqbals poem named; IBLEES KI MAJLIS-E-SHOORA.

Application of the strategy has been ruthless as everything is fair inwar. The principle of might is right is followed in letter and spirit. Nothing ismorally incorrect with use of excessive force. Atrocious acts of theCrusaders are provided blanket cover by phrases like collateral damage andforce protection.

Deceptive phrases are coined to justify unfair acts to resolve issues oflegality and legitimacy right at the outset. Zero tolerance is exercised to curbintolerance as human values and values of the civilized world areconsidered contradictory. Even young boys of twelve years are kept incaptivity for years, released only after being hundred percent sure that theyno more pose any serious threat.

In fact Muslims have been dehumanized. They have no humanrights; thus, no remorse and no regrets. Mere Islamic identity of a country isa reason good enough for militant fundamentalists of the Christian World toinvade and destroy it.

Despite the trumpeted pretexts, no war has been so immoral andillegal. It has been an ugly war, bearing impressive names. Resultantly theCrusaders have been ruthless and devastating, but devoid of any heroics.

Nevertheless they have won some visible victories. They havedestroyed two Muslim countries and encouraged its partners to crush twolegitimate freedom movements in Kashmir and Palestine. Others have beenallowed to annihilate similar movements from Philippines to Chechnya.Most remarkable of the achievements can be attributed to their media. It hasconvinced the world about necessity of killing of Muslims as a routine.

Despite these visible victories the terrorism has not been defeated.Nevertheless, the Crusaders have succeeded in restricting it to MuslimWorld. This has made the civilized world safer, but only for the time being.

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It is the worst period of history of Ummah comprising more than fiftyindependent and sovereign states. Entire Muslim World is suffering fromBE-YAQEENI (uncertainty), which is worst than slavery in words of Iqbal.Leaders and masses suffer from fear and hunger; two of the worst curses ofAllah.

Muslim rulers have surrendered unconditionally after seeing the fateof those two who defied. Most of them agree with the Crusaders that the waris not against Islam. The few who disagree, lack the courage to confront theCrusades by calling for Jihad as that will amount to asking for trouble.

Resultantly they have accepted Jehadis as terrorists and condemnthem. They also accept the routine killing of hundreds of innocent Muslimswithout a squeak, whereas showing of dead bodies of the Crusaders killed inbattle is condemned. They seek enlightened moderation not realizing thatno faith is more enlightened and more moderate than Islam.

Rulers of Ummah are like rats in panic at the sight of Tom cat. Theyfind their survival in being on the right side of the Crusaders or in respectiveholes. They want to befriend them on humiliating terms tending to forgetthat their friendly fire is equally deadly.

Many Muslim leaders and intellectuals still believe that the Crusaderswill provide the medicine for healing of the injuries inflicted by them. Theybeg the Crusaders for solving Ummahs problems of poverty and illiteracy.They believe that the Crusaders will soon get busy in reconstruction of thecountries destroyed in war.

The people who hold their self respect dearer are not deterred by themight of their enemy. They have not been disheartened by successes of theCrusaders. They have refused to shun militancy; because this is the only wayto hurt the enemy.

Majority of Muslims disapprove methods adopted by the militants, butdisagreement ends there. They fully support the just causes for which theyare fighting. They resent atrocities committed against their brethrens onflimsiest of the pretexts. That is why there has been no decrease in militancy.It cannot be eliminated without addressing the root causes. It will survive aslong as injustice prevails.

The difference in thinking of the rulers and masses of Muslim Worldis too conspicuous. The rulers are prepared to tolerate all the disgrace to earna certificate of moderation from the Crusaders. The militant segment of theUmmah is also prepared to face all the excesses of the Crusaders, but refuse

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to compromise their self-respect. Paradoxes of tolerance are at play with extremes. One kind of

tolerance is that shown by a woman often seen working on constructionsites. She carries twenty bricks on her head with her baby tied on her back.After toiling for day-long she fetches water, collects fire wood, cooks foodand serves it to her family. Despite the hectic routine of hard labour she isstuck below the poverty-line.

But she tolerates all this without a complaint about abuses of herrights. Perhaps, she is not aware of rights, except the one that pertains to herhonour and self respect. She is prepared to tolerate every hardship in theform of exploitation, gender discrimination, poverty, illiteracy and so on, forpreservation of her honour.

Her desire is amply reflected in her upright stance, determined looksand firmness of her dealings. Her proud conduct is a viable deterrenceagainst all threats to her self respect.

There is another kind of woman who tolerates no nonsense of abovehardships and exploitations. She wants to have all the privileges at any price.These cannot be denied to her on pretexts of honour and self respect.Modern enlightened concept of personal liberty has rendered these pretextsuntenable.

Muslim leaders are not likely to unite to confront their commonenemy as most of them like Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia havejoined hands with the Crusaders to curb Islamic militancy. Therefore, thewar is likely remain one sided, but it will not be a walk-over for theCrusaders. Muslim masses will keep putting up resistance.

In the context of Arab World the prevalent situation is gloomier. EntireArabian Peninsula is practically occupied by the Crusaders as bulk of USstanding army is deployed therein. Arabs cannot dare think of acting againstthe interests of the Crusaders. Their Arab League is dead like OIC.

Sharon has been allowed to prepare levelled play-field. He isengrossed in removing bottlenecks and clearing obstacles on road to peacesuiting Israel. His actions have been and will continue to bear the tinge ofruthless brutality.

In Iraq Sunni fighters have surprised the world by their resilience inresisting the occupation of their country. It is because that Saddam, unlikeMulla Omar, avoided pitched battles and then allowed his soldiers to desertalong with weapons they could carry. These weapons are being used by

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them, but these are not going to last forever. The only silver lining has been the encroachment of monopoly of

Western Media by some courageous TV networks of Arabs and by blessingsof the information technology. There is slight glimmer of hope thatresilience of Iraqis may encourage the Arabs to stand on their feet.

In the context of the Subcontinent India cleverly availed theopportunity presented by the tragedy. It coerced Pakistan to win a victorywithout war. India is now consolidating the gains through peace processentailing crushing of freedom movement. The Crusaders have rendered allout support.

Tajiks have been rewarded with seat of Kabul for their contribution tothe Crusades, but Afghanistan is virtually disintegrated. Warlords are backrunning their respective fiefdoms. Zahir Shah has been allowed to return intime for the final rights of his own and the kingdom he had once inherited.

The strings of the puppet, Karzai, are controlled by Khalizad onbehalf of the Crusaders. He will be remembered in history for stabbing hisbrethren on their back. Pushtoon resistance is dying in the absence of outsidesupport. They also have to blame themselves for fighting pitched battles inarea away from their secure base ignoring their strength which lied infighting unconventional war.

A concentrated dose of wisdom administered at midnight via satelliteproved quite effective. Since then Musharraf has not faltered in hiscommitment to war on terror. He is ever-ready to respond to all the calls todo more.

Second dose was given by India through massive mobilization.Pakistan succumbed to pressure and allowed India to win without war. Itpleaded guilty to the charges of cross border terrorism and took stringentmeasures to check flow of any support across Line of Control.

It has reconciled with installation of hostile regime in Kabul. Today ithas no friend in Afghanistan. Tajiks and Uzbeks are hostile for its backing ofTaliban and Pushtoons are angry for betraying them. No sooner the crossborder terrorism issue with India subsided, Kabul started blaming Pakistanfor the same. Pakistan will not find choking of Durand Line as easy as it wasin case of Line of Control.

Pakistan is also under pressure to introduce socio-political reforms.Controlled version of democracy has not been accepted by the Crusaders.The menace of Mulla and Madrassa is still to be neutralized. The rulers are

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prepared to meet this requirement as is evident from their mindset withwhich they would have termed Ghazi Ilm Din Shaheed a terrorist if he hadcommitted that offence after 9/11.

Outside the country Pakistanis are humiliated, hunted, imprisoned anddeported in hundreds. In some cases, like Macedonia, they are killed forcommitting an offence of carrying verses of Quraan on their person. Onlynuclear assets are intact to which Pakistan is clinging on dearly, but for howlong?

Muhammad Riaz Amin16th January 2004

ANGRY AFGHANS

America wont leave Afghanistan until security returns vowedEvans. Britain remained committed to stabilizing Afghanistan. Couple ofmonths later Brahimi warned that UN might quit Afghanistan due to securityhazards and Annan backed him.

Framing of constitution was a big challenge amid violence andintimidation. Nevertheless new constitution was ratified by Loya Jirga,which envisaged strong presidential system to unite the war torn country.Afghan optimists hoped that it would be instrumental in bringing peace.

Angry Pushtoons were the only one who resisted occupation. Somemore Pushtoon groups showed interest in resisting occupation. YounisKhalis declared Jihad against US, but Governor of Nangarhar denied thereport. Former Afghan President Rabbani and ex-premier Hikmatyar heldsecret meeting amidst calls for Jihad. Jaish-ul-Muslimeen vowed joininghands with Taliban.

In the absence of any secure base inside Afghanistan Pushtoon,perforce used the tribal areas of Pakistan for this purpose. This has led toPakistan bashing. Accusing Pakistan of cross border terrorism on behest ofthe Crusaders has become a favourite pass-time for Kabul regime. PerforcePakistan has to respond to calls to do more.

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PEACE AND SECURITYAfghans still lived in fear admitted Karzai. America warned its

citizens in Afghanistan over security. NATO accepted that security remainedtenuous. South Korea closed Kabul mission. The UN expressed concernsover security. Karzai rejected the criticism, but his statement was notaccepted by the world body. Afghan Government was urged to do moreregarding security, particularly for relief workers.

Factional fighting remained the main hazard in restoration of peaceand tranquility:

Seven persons were killed in fighting between Tajiks and Uzbeks on29th September. Nine days later heavy artillery and tanks were used.Mazar was deserted. Warlords signed truce after killing about eightyfighters. The truce did not last for more than 24 hours.

Fighting returned to Balkh on 13th October about 800 years afterGenghis Khan. Five days later seven Afghans perished in Farah whena car was ambushed.

On 1st November police stopped former militia commander loyal tothe government in Helmand province. He resisted and fierce fightingresulted in killing 47 persons including the commander, three womenand twelve civilians.

On 2nd November fighting again erupted between Tajiks and Uzbeks.Militia commander, Salangi was shot dead in Kabul three days later.He had sided with Taliban during civil war.

Governor of Qalat escaped harm in two bomb blasts on 9th November. On 6th January a militia commander was killed in fresh factional

fighting in Zabul. Disarmament was the only way to tackle the menace of factional

fighting. In early October UN deployed teams in cities before launching thecampaign to disarm warlords. The programme started in Kunduz on 21stOctober in which 600 fighters surrendered their weapons, thereafter itreduced to trickle.

Disarming Tajiks and Uzbeks was the major problem. Tajiks offeredselective demobilization. Atta surrendered some tanks and Fahim, under

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pressure, showed willingness to hand over heavy weapons. Dostum did notbudge. He questioned the drive as Taliban were still active. Intriguingly hefreed hundreds of Taliban prisoners in January. It was not expression ofgoodwill gesture for Pushtoons, but of ill-will for Tajiks.

In November government decided to remove heavy weapons fromKabul. It received mute response from affected quarters as only somefighters surrendered weapons to ISAF. By mid January no significantprogress was reported.

America backed Karzais efforts to disarm, but did not refrain fromsponsoring favourite warlords. HRW asked US to end support to warlords.Similarly Britain did not even bother to reply when Supreme Court askedextradition of Zardad Faryadi, who was involved in murder cases.

Kabul sent a police contingent to Mazar to enforce truce and partiallysucceeded in maintaining security. Government vowed more changes todefuse tension, including merger of rival forces. Option of shifting Atta andDostum to Kabul was also considered. UN asked rival factions to put an endto violence. Dostum and Atta assured of support to Karzais efforts.Rumsfeld also tried to convince Atta and Dostum to disarm their fighters.

All these efforts failed in making any positive impact on improvementof security. The government could not protect Afghans from warlords.Those, who surrendered their weapons, felt insecure as commandersharassed them. International Crisis Group and Brahimi feared that warlordscould even impede the political process.

Business of drugs has been the main source of money required bythose warlords who did not get financial support from the Crusaders. Aidagencies blamed drug trade for persistent violence. Opium production wasgreat danger to stability said IMF. UN sanctions chief feared that drugmoney could even finance Taliban.

UK was worried about heroin production. It trained Afghancommandos for raids on heroin peddlers. US and Afghan troops destroyedtones of drugs. The government sought ISAF help to counter the mafia.These steps resulted in sophistication of drug trade.

Poppy cultivation increased to record level. Officials apprehendedfurther rise in poppy farming. Opium production was spreading like cancerwarned UN and it could push the country towards AIDs. American troopswere also reported becoming drug addicts.

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Mines remained security hazard and it was estimated that Afghanistanwould be free of them in ten years as only Japan offered $ 5.9 million aid forthis purpose. The incidents of highway robberies continued. In one incidentseven persons were shot dead by robbers on Farah-Kandahar highway.

Performance of ISAF in improving security in Kabul wasacknowledged widely. This resulted in decrease in attacks on peacekeepers;only one missile was fired towards ISAF base in Kabul during the entireperiod. Good performance exerted additional pressure on ISAF. Robertson,secretary general of NATO urged them to finish the job. NATO mustsucceed in Afghanistan he demanded. The pressure also forced them tolisten to the demands of expansion.

Karzai held talks with the chief for expansion of force outside Kabul.Aid groups urged expansion to areas of insecurity. Annan called forexpansion of ISAF. In September NATO deliberated on the issue andGerman Envoy indicated that peacekeeping forces might be expanded. InOctober NATO ministers discussed enlarging the force. Next month ISAFexpansion beyond Kabul was approved.

Expansion required additional troops for which UN kept urgingcountries for contributions. Canadian soldiers called for and US Senatorsurged NATO to send more troops. New NATO chief also sought moretroops, but only Norway and Finland agreed. NATO saw difficulties inexpanding peacekeepers. Its request for more helicopters was rejected and itstruggled to plug equipment and other gaps.

Peacekeepers focused on improvement of Afghan force, but Nationalarmy could only rise to about 10,000 because of slow training process. Thegovernment endeavoured to reform police force for which $ 17 million werepledged. China sent a police officer on UN request to help AfghanGovernment. Graduation of another batch added to its strength.

Afghan security forces gave mixed performance. Police assisted inmaintaining peace in Mazar. In December arrest of terrorists foiled rocketattacks on Kabul. Police also hunted kidnappers of two Indian road workers.

In October one person was killed as police clashed with soldiers.Governor and police chief of Balkh were sacked due to repeated clashesbetween opposing warlords. In November one person died and three werehurt as troops opened fire in Kabul on sacked civil servants who weredemanding outstanding pay. Afghan army assisted occupation forces inoperations carried out against Pushtoons.

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The desertions of soldiers, however, caused worries to thegovernment. About three thousand newly trained soldiers had desertedwhich constituted 30 percent of the total strength. Tough training, low wagesand factional links were quoted as main reasons of desertions.

Peace imposed by the US and its allies after the fall of Taliban

remained fragile, according to Amir Taheri of Iran. He attributed it to severalforces still at work:

The first threat comes from the Pushtoons who, like the Sunnis inIraq, find it hard to abandon their almost exclusive hold on politicalpower. And, again like Iraqi Sunnis who draw support from sistercommunities in neighbouring Arab countries, the Afghan Pushtoonslook for support to their kith and kin in Pakistan.

The second threat comes from the estimated half a million armedmen, divided into dozens of private armies, some of which are linkedto local and international drug barons.

The third threat comes from neighbouring states, especially Iran,Pakistan and Russia which, though not a neighbour, exerts influencethrough its military presence in Tajikistan. Afghanistan was created inthe 18th Century as a buffer state to separate the Tsarist, Persian andBritish Empires. Attempts at undermining Afghanistans neutralityalways led to war and could do so again in future. The most aggrievedneighbour of Afghanistan at present is Pakistan which, having backedthe Taliban to the bitter end, finds itself with no friends or clients inKabul.

The fourth and possibly the most important threat to future peace andstability in Afghanistan comes from the slow pace of re-construction.Another reason was that the puppet regime still faced the problem of

acceptance. Vacuum created due to ineffectiveness of central authority hasbeen filled by warlords. It causes fragile conditions of security. UNHCR feltthat more money and troops were needed for the stability.

REHABILITATION AND RECONSTRUCTIONThe talk of rehabilitation ought to begin with repatriation of refugees.

Reportedly 2.5 to 3 million refugees have returned home from neighbouringcountries. The remaining 50 percent have preferred to stay back most of

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whom are in Pakistan. Repatriation centres in Peshawar and Quetta wereclosed in mid November. The refugees stayed back for two reasons; killingof returnees and lack of interest on the part of UNHCR.

Australia continued pursuing tough policy regarding asylum seekers.It threatened to deport more Afghans including students. Hunger strikersstranded on Nauru Island faced death after Australia refused entry. SixAfghan hunger strikers were hospitalized in Lombok Island of Indonesia.

Britain offered airfares to refugees willing to return. EU planned torepatriate asylum seekers, which was slammed by the UN. In October SaudiArabia returned forty-two abducted Afghan children to Afghanistan.

Europes attention was diverted towards profits of reconstruction inIraq though the destruction phase was still not completed. Germany howeverannounced $ 1.4 million aid for refugees, but Japan threatened to stop aid.World was urged to help rehabilitation of refugees.

Rehabilitation of education was restricted to plans for launching aschool by a Canadian family and American higher education board plannedto set up a university. In health sector Kabul introduced new ambulanceservice in October. US donated wheelchairs for disabled Afghans. UNICEFobserved that health and education of women and children had improved.

On economic front Afghanistan and Britain signed accord to boostties. Russia showed willingness to write-off some Afghan debt. Dutchplanned to set up commercial bank. WB launched telecom project to linkKabul with provinces. Karzai reopened renovated Kabul-Kandahar highwayand thanked Bush for his role in construction.

ADB approved $ 20 million for renovation of roads; funding forconstruction of trade route linking Central Asia; and allocation of additional$ 5 million for irrigation system. FAO launched a project which wouldbenefit farmers of Hazarajat. Power plant in Kabul was reactivated inNovember.

Iran was asked to help in development of rural areas. It responded bydonating machinery. Indian firm was building Afghan radio and TV network.It also donated 300 trucks to Afghan army and an Indian team planned tobuild hydroelectric plant in Bamiyan.

Senior US officials admitted that Afghanistan was not a priority afteroccupation of Iraq. Hence Annan and Powell called on donors to extendhelp. UN team urged global support and Abdullah sought more foreign aidfor reconstruction.

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EU pledged 79.5 million euros and Solana reiterated commitment toreconstruction. EU also gave 50 million euros to help fight drugs trade.Canadian minister assured support. WB granted $ 95 million for povertyeradication.

America was repeatedly asked not to forget Afghans. Khalilzadassured that Bush remained committed to reconstruction of Afghanistan.Occupation forces established military reconstruction team in Herat.America offered $ 40 million for construction of bridge linking Tajikistan.Bush Administration prepared $ 1 billion aid package proposal.

The civilized world remained focused on cultural emancipation.Germany opened first cultural institute in Kabul in September. In Octoberthe clowns planned to cheer kids in Kabul. Indian engineers saved Buddhaniches from collapse. BBC launched new radio service for Afghans.

An Afghan beauty pageant contested Miss Earth title in Manila andwon special award: Beauties for a cause. US Congress lauded the gainsmade by Afghan women. Afghan embassy rejected beauty contestants claimof Miss Afghanistan. Supreme Court condemned her and it was apprehendedthat she could face prosecution. A minister immediately demanded moreprotection for women.

Women submitted a bill on womens rights. First women radio stationwas established in Herat. Ministry of Culture paid tribute to UN worker. InJanuary first Afghan woman sung on state television. Amnesty however, feltthat Afghan women were no freer than before.

Supreme Court opposed lifting of ban on women singers. Kabul TVrevived the ban. Some emancipated women feared that Taliban might return.Revolutionary Association of Afghan Women accused the puppet regime ofexcelling Taliban in abusing women. Government was also accused of HRviolations.

The prevalent anarchy was the major obstacle in rehabilitation andreconstruction of Afghanistan. Aid workers were frequently attacked andoften killed or kidnapped. De-miners were also attacked:

An aid worker was killed and another injured in attack on 25thSeptember. One was kidnapped and freed in Nimroz on 7th October.

In November a Turkish engineer was kidnapped near Pakistan border.Captors demanded release of 250 men, but a month later freed him. A

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French UN aid worker was shot dead and an Indian working forprivate firm was killed.

Three Indian workers were kidnapped on 6th December. Indiacontemplated sending commandos to protect its installations.Pushtoons demanded release of 55 prisoners for two Indians, but on24th December the captives were freed.

Taliban kidnapped an Afghan aid worker in Zabul on 5th January.America pledged to make conditions safer for aid workers. A top cleric was attacked in Herat and a census worker was shot dead.

In September two girls schools were burnt in Mazar and another school wasbombed in Khost in October. In December Taliban burnt a school and killedthe guard in Kandahar.

UN condemned killings of aid workers and suspended relief workafter each attack. It restricted staff movement and banned travel insideAfghanistan. Ultimately UN pulled out its staff from Pushtoon areas. Thegovernment vowed to bring to justice the killers of UN workers.

Approval of new constitution to introduce democracy in Afghanistanwas the major event of the period. America welcomed and UN hailed releaseof draft constitution. Taliban rejected the draft and called for electionboycott. Religious leaders flayed and students protested against draftconstitution. Hazaras demanded more representation.

Women had hoped that new constitution would enshrine womensrights as demanded. Contrarily the draft constitution failed to protectwomen according to Amnesty. America also demanded better protection towomen and religions in constitution.

Loya Jirga was scheduled to meet on 10th December. On 6thDecember Karzai hinted delay in debate on constitution. Like the previousmeeting, Loya Jirga was allowed time for wooing the delegates. Once againthe female candidates alleged rigging in Loya Jirga polls.

Karzai advocated strong president for Afghanistan. Northern Alliancediffered with him. Abdul Hafiz Mansoor, an elected delegate from Kabulopined that the proposed constitution was not for future. It is forcontinuation of this government.

Zahir opened Loya Jirga convention on 14th December. Mujaddadiselection strengthened Karzais hands. He had been Mujaddadis presssecretary when he headed government in exile in Peshawar. Mansoor, the

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defeated Tajik candidate, lashed out at Karzai for manipulating the draftconstitution to grab more powers and prolong his rule.

Malalai Joya, woman delegate from Farah, while speaking in LoyaJirga caused uproar by criticizing ex-Mujahideen and warlords, most ofwhom were part of the Jirga. I request the chair of the assembly not to giveopportunity (to speak) to such people who call the traditional Loya Jirga thecouncil of corruption and prostitution. They were responsible for leadingthis country towards crisis and civil war.

Afghan Loya Jirga headed for deadlock as Pushtoons supportedKarzai for presidential system; whereas NA wanted parliamentary system.Ismail slammed government for not inviting him to Loya Jirga. On 19thDecember delegates clashed over Sharia and women rights. Foreignjournalists were rightly barred from covering assembly proceedings.

Latif, delegate from Nangarhar termed the polls process as animalmarket in Bati Kot. He was referring to horse-trading. By 22nd Decemberofficials started pressing for ratification. Two days later Karzai refused tocompromise on strong presidential system. Delegates were given more timefor discussions and by 27th December Karzai emerged as winner.

Next day the debate on new constitution became sour as Abdul RasulSayyaf insisted in putting word of Islam in few articles of the constitution.He is trying to put the word Islam into every article alleged FinanceMinisters brother. Mr. Sayyaf likes to provoke the internationalcommunity he added. Mansoor insisted on his viewpoint. The governmentwants to impose their ideas and their draft. Behind this draft are America andthe United Nations. Even if you dont want it, it is imposed on you.

As marathon debate on constitution entered final phase somedelegates threatened boycott. Habiba Danish, an ethnic Tajik said, if theydont include our ideas in the constitution, we wont give up our weapons. Ifthey want national unity, we want equal rights. Hashim Mehdawi, a Hazaradelegate said, the Pushtoons were in power for years and should nowbehave like equal brothers under the umbrella of democracy.

On 2nd January Afghans, US and UN officials met to end impasse overconstitution. Two days later Jirga agreed on new constitution and ratificationwas welcomed widely. Putin greeted Karzai and China termed it a steptowards peace. Iran supported the new constitution. It was termed as triumphfor peace. It was also a triumph for the US and UN, whose officials workedtirelessly to broker a backroom agreement

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Salient features of new constitution are as under: Afghanistan is an Islamic Republic with Islam as its sacred religion.

Followers of other religions are free to perform religious ceremoniesin accordance with the provisions of the law.

No law shall be contrary to the beliefs and practices of Islam. Menand women have equal rights and duties before the law.

The president will be directly elected by the Afghan people with twovice presidents, who will be nominated by presidential candidateswhen standing for election.

The highest authority will be a Loya Jirga grand assembly consistingof national assembly members and provincial and district councilchairpersons. The Loya Jirga can prosecute the president and amendthe constitution.

A national assembly will consist of two houses: a Wolesi Jirga orhouse of people of 220 to 250 members, and a Meshrano Jirga orhouse of elders.

The Wolesi Jirga will be directly elected by the Afghan people. It hasthe authority to impeach ministers.

The president will appoint ministers, the Attorney General, ninejudges of the Supreme Court for ten years and Central Bank Governorwith the approval of the Wolesi Jirga.

Ministers, the Chief Justice and Supreme Court members canparticipate in the Loya Jirga without voting rights.

Ministers should not hold foreign passports but the Wolesi Jirgashould vote whether to approve appointments of ministers holdingdual nationality.

One-third of Meshrano Jirga members will be appointed by thepresident, of whom 50 percent will be women.

Former king Mohammad Zahir Shah is to be accorded the title ofFather of the Nation for his lifetime.

National assembly elections will be held within one year of thepresidential elections. Pashto and Dari will be the official languages. Despite ratification differences persisted on some aspects. New

constitution was flawed by deals with warlords observed HRW. America toowas concerned over religious aspects of the constitution. Rahimullah

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Yusufzai saw Karzai following Musharrafs footsteps. Jamiat Jaish-ul-Muslimeen rejected it.

Peacekeepers and Karzai government performed commendably inensuring security of delegates attending the Jirga, though Kabul was hit byrockets on 16th and 22nd December. Six days later five Afghan officials werekilled by suicide bomber near Kabul international airport. Taliban claimedresponsibility for suicide attack.

The next step towards democracy entailed holding of elections. Karzaihad approved new law on political parties on 12th October. Votersregistration started in December and voters were urged to get registered. Bysecond week of January over 250,000 Afghans were registered, includingwomen. UN faced funds shortage for registration. Canada donatedregistration kits to electoral body.

CIA was the first to cast doubts about holding of elections as perschedule. Some apprehended that ethnic division could cast shadow andAnnan warned that violence could jeopardize elections. An official of UNsounded more pessimist; elections in June seemed impossible.

Afghan government was determined to hold elections despiteviolence. Zalmay Khalilzad vowed that elections could be held even earlierthan June despite UN doubts. America was to push for polls. Karzai was sureto contest presidential polls.

PUNISHMENT OF PUSHTOONSThe Coalition forces administered following punishment to those who

resisted occupation of their homeland: On 22nd September several Kochees were killed in bombing by US

warplanes in Zabul. The same day US forces also clashed withmilitants in Paktika.

Mulla Omars aide, Mulla Abdul Razzaq Nafees, was killed insouthern Afghanistan on 6th October just days after killing of MullaAbdul Rahim. US troops again clashed with militants in Paktika.

Pashtu language newspaper was banned in Nangarhar on 10th October.Four days later Afghan and US troops raided Taliban camp inUruzgan.

Seven Pushtoons were reported killed and 12 held on 15th Octoberafter two days of fighting northeast of Kandahar.

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Taliban commander blamed for rocket attacks was arrested in Uruzganon 20th October. Five days later fifteen Pushtoons were arrested inKandahar operation.

US-led Coalition killed nine fighters in Paktika on 26th October. Nextday twenty al-Qaeda fighters perished near Pakistan border and anti-Taliban operations continued in Zabul and Ghazni.

On 28th October eighteen more were killed in US air raids on Talibanand al-Qaeda. Next day US Marine helicopter unit joined Coalitionforces.

On 2nd November eight members of a family were killed in Kunar inair raid. Eight days later US forces launched fresh operation inNuristan province and killed one next day.

Twenty-two Afghans were killed in two different incidents oppositeWaziristan on 15th November.

Six Afghan civilians were killed in Paktika in air strikes. Governorexpressed frustration over US friendly fire. Next day Americaclaimed that those killed were terrorists.

On 21st November US troops arrested four militants involved in rocketattacks in Paktika. A week later Hizb commander Ghulam Sakhee waskilled by US troops in Kunar.

Coalition troops clashed with Taliban forces in Khost on 4th Decemberand suspected terrorist was arrested in Kabul.

On 7th December nine Afghan children were killed in air strike inMakur southwest of Ghazni. UN urged swift inquiry into attack andAmerica swiftly regretted.

America launched largest ever anti-Taliban offensive with 2,000troops in south and east Afghanistan on 8th December.

US troops launched air assault in Khost on 9th December. Next day sixmore children were killed in Paktia offensive and two Talibancommanders were arrested near Spin Boldak.

On 11th December US troops killed four Afghans in their bid to arrestGeneral Asmatullah in Jalalabad.

Two Taliban were arrested in Uruzgan on 16th December and USforces killed two persons near Bagram base.

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On 23rd December US troops captured bombers in Paktika and twodays later twenty bombs were seized in Jalalabad.

US troops killed fourteen fighters in eastern Afghanistan on 1stJanuary. Next day security forces seized weapons near Jalalabad.

On 10th January four suspected Taliban died while trying to lay bombon a road. US-led forces unearthed weapons cache four days later. Infliction of collateral damage remained conspicuous part of

collective punishment. On 22nd September several Kochees were killed inZabul in bombing by warplanes. America investigated the incident andclosed the case after regretting civilian deaths. During first week ofDecember eight children were killed in air strike, which added to sense offear. The attackers must have desired exactly the same.

War on terror cannot be won at the expense of civilians said Annan.Afghan leaders preferred tolerance over showing annoyance over killingsof innocents. Such tolerance wont have been shown if some innocents ofthe civilized world were killed.

Six more children were killed in Paktia offensive on 10th December.The same day Rumsfeld had defended targeting of individuals. His bravesoldiers included children in the blanket cover provided by Rumsfeld. USmilitary defended the action. Hence there were no regrets this time.

Regrets no regrets, Americans were least pushed about theseincidents. To them controlling of terrorism was as important as controllingof nuclear proliferation. Effective control of proliferation entails destructionof fission material, not the destruction of bombs only. Children representedthe fission material of terrorism. With this mindset it would be better ifAmericans name man-hunting operations as Operation Regrets orOperation No Regrets or Operation Collateral Damage rather than givingfancy names.

Afghan militias assisting US were also accused of human rightsabuses, but Pushtoons did not take punishments lying down. They retaliatedand resisted:

On 26th September an American soldier was wounded in Kandahar.Two days later seven Afghan guards were killed in attack in Helmandprovince. Pushtoons claimed that US troops had abandoned Barikot.

Six rockets were fired at US base in Paktika on 29th September. Nextday a US soldier was killed and two were wounded in gunfight.

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On 1st October Pushtoons claimed killing eighteen government men.Next day eight Afghans were killed in southern Afghanistan, twoCanadians perished in mine blast and a driver carrying fuel forCoalition forces was beheaded.

US-led bases came under rocket fire on 4th October. Three days laterrockets were fired at US base in Kandahar.

On 8th October three rockets were fired at Jalalabad airport. Next dayUS Special Forces convoy was ambushed on road Gardez-Khost.

Forty Pushtoon prisoners escaped from Kandahar jail on 11th October.Next day fighters claimed killing 13 militiamen, kidnapped uncle ofGhazni governor and captured Khak-i-Afghan district. US soldier waswounded in fire fight in Kabul the same day.

Four Afghan troops were killed in ambush in Uruzgan on 13th October.Next day an American civilian was injured in another ambush.

Remote controlled mine explosion killed one and injured two inNangarhar on 16th October.

Twin blasts shook Jalalabad on 22nd October and Coalition soldier wasinjured in attack in Paktika.

On 24th October ten were killed in ambush in Samangan. Four dayslater two CIA operatives died in ambush in Shkin.

Three Americans were hurt in ambush in Paktika on 29th October andbombs went off in UN facility. Two days later US soldier was killed inclash in Uruzgan.

Rebels attacked a building and looted arms in Kunar on 1st November.Three days later four US soldiers were wounded in attack in Paktika.

Bomb exploded near offices of Oxfam and Save the Children on 5 thNovember and two rockets hit Jalalabad airport.

Fighters attacked on 7th November and killed policemen in Zabuldistrict. Three days later office of mine sweepers was attacked. Bythat day Afghan forces had lost control of seven districts in Zabul.

On 12th November fighters claimed killing Romanian soldier inKandahar province. Next day a blast near US military base in Kunarkilled four Afghans.

Two rockets landed near US base in Shkin on 14th November and

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another Romanian soldier, wounded earlier, died. Next day three USsoldiers were killed in mine blast in Kunar.

Five rockets were fired at US-led base in Kunar on 20 th November.Four days later five US troops were killed in helicopter crash and USconvoy came under rocket attack on road Gardez-Logar.

Two US and one Afghan soldier were wounded in clash in northeastAfghanistan on 28th November. Two days later fighters claimedcapture of Mizan district.

Afghan soldier was killed in clash on 2nd December. Next day two USsoldiers were wounded in grenade attack in Kandahar.

On 6th December twenty persons were injured in blast in Kandahar.Four days later fighters claimed capture of two district headquarters.

American soldier and Afghan worker were hurt in rocket fire atmilitary base on 11th December. Next day two US soldiers wereinjured in blast near Asadabad.

Seven soldiers were killed in attack near Spin Boldak on 21stDecember. Six days later several persons were killed in ambush inKhost.

Two US soldiers were injured in raid on convoy on 5th January. Nextday a grenade was hurled at UN office in Kandahar.

Gunmen killed twelve Hazaras in Bagram district of Helmandprovince on 7th January. Next day bomb blast at army base inKandahar wounded two soldiers.

Six Afghan soldiers were killed in Kandahar on 10th January. Next dayfighters killed four Afghan policemen.

On 15th January US base at Khost came under rocket attack andattackers claimed killing ten Americans. Pushtoons resolve for waging Jihad did not dissipate. They refused to

bow despite perpetration of atrocities against them for the last two years.Even Guantanamo detainee, Mulla Shehzada released in July, led attacksaccording to Time magazine. Taliban were still popular in many Pushtoonprovinces and Omar continued casting shadow over Kandahar.

Omar held secret meeting in September and Taliban tape urgedMuslims to counter US. He called for Jihad and vowed to expel US-led

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forces. Pushtoons threatened to step up attacks. Ex-minister Ghazi alsodeclared that resistance in Iraq and Afghanistan was Jihad. Pushtoonsasked people not to cooperate with foreigners. They urged Afghan driversnot to transport foreigners. Afghan women working for foreign NGOs werethreatened.

In the absence of any outside support Pushtoons resorted toinnovations. Reportedly they were making bombs out of DEEG BUKHAR;local word for pressure cookers. They also countered their defamation asthreats to those with shaven faces, involvement in Kandahar blast and killingof Pakistani engineer in Ghazni were denied promptly.

Occupation forces were determined to rid Afghanistan of terrorthreat. America denied the reports that Taliban were making a comeback.Armitage claimed Taliban were frightened. They were fighting a losingbattle said the visiting US Senator.

Catching Osama was not a priority said US General, yet Saddamscapture put bin Laden in spotlight. Focus was back on bin Laden saidKhalilzad. Bush claimed that US was on Osamas trail. He was running outof hiding places according to Myers. Congressman asked to double thebounty on Osama. Mention of Osama once again brought Hazrat Ali in thelimelight whose forces were blamed for providing safe passage to Osama,

US troops struggled against anti-occupation forces. Rafsanjaniclaimed that they were too terrified in Afghanistan and Iraq. Abizaid visitedtroops in southeast as US planned tactical change by establishing twelvebases in southern Afghanistan.

America found it difficult to win Afghans hearts. Therefore,Afghan government weighed talks with Pushtoon moderates. A spokesmanannounced release of Mutawwakil and his involvement in talks wasconfirmed. Karzai and US denied his release and Taliban denied talks withAfghan government. Mutawwakils whereabouts remained a mystery. Theprevalent insurgency was summarized by Gwynne Dyer as under:

Most of Zabul and Uruzgan provinces and half of the Kandaharregion are once again Taliban controlled by night.

Over two dozen American and ISAF troops have been killed thisyear, a loss rate worse than Iraqs, given the far smaller number offoreign troops in Afghanistan.

US troops claim to be inflicting vastly greater casualties on theiropponents; more than 400 fighters were killed in September alone.

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Most of these casualties are caused either by American air strikes orby local militias leave much room for doubt. The militias have a habitof furthering their private interests by labeling their opponents asTaliban.

After fifteen aid workers were killed in Taliban attacks in recentmonths, the United Nations has pulled its foreign staff back to Kabuland has forbidden them even to walk in the streets.

Senior UN officials have publicly doubted whether the electionsschedule for next June will happen at all.

The occupation force in Iraq numbers at least 150,000 American andallied troops, but there are only one-tenth as many in Afghanistan.One third of that is ISAF troops.

Why is it so small? Because US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeldwas determined to keep most US troops free for the planned attack onIraq.

This meant that his only option for controlling rural Afghanistan wasto make alliances with local warlords and try rule through them.

When Karzai tried to fire four or five governors who were runningtheir provinces as personal fiefdoms, US officials over-ruled him.

Until recently, the US also blocked every attempt to expand ISAFsrole beyond Kabul, because international peace-keeping troops wouldnot tolerate the informal American-warlord alliances that are the normin rural Afghanistan.He made three predictions: one there will be no internationally

recognized free elections in Afghanistan in 204; two, US forces0 will pullout within three years and lastly, Taliban will be back in power within five.

PAKISTAN BASHINGKarzai accused Pakistan of cross border terrorism and then sought

closure of religious schools in Pakistan. He also claimed that Osama washiding in mountains near Afghan border. He, in concert with others,continued the campaign of Pakistan bashing:

On 7th October Khalilzad asked Pakistan to do more against Taliban,while denying secret meeting between Taliban and US officials inIslamabad.

Kabul sought more help from Pakistan against terrorists. Five days

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later Abdullah asked Islamabad to do more against Taliban and al-Qaeda.

On 20th November Pakistan was warned against failure on terrorism.America, however, refused to comment on Taliban-ISI link.

Three days later Karzai again urged Pakistan do more againstterrorism. A week later he discussed infiltration from Pakistan withAbizaid.

Karzai reported sighting of Mulla Omar in Quetta. When Pakistanrefuted the report Kabul questioned swift denial of the charge.

Pakistan is a sanctuary for rebels alleged Khalilzad on 24thDecember.In addition to accusations, Pakistan was subjected to physical

aggression just as India did across Line of Control. On 28th Septemberrockets landed in South Waziristan from Afghan side. Next day US troopsbombed Pakistan area. On 2nd November eight persons were injured in Pak-Afghan border firing. Reportedly Afghan agencies also planned sabotage inPakistan.

Events inside Afghanistan were bound to affect Pakistan, but morethan that it was its submissiveness which invited undue bashing. Pakistanfailed to give befitting reply to Karzais baseless remarks about sighting ofOmar in Quetta. Karzai had no justification to raise hue and cry over such sighting. Hetoo had been in Quetta for years and still owned a house in the city. Thereare millions of Afghans staying back in Pakistan. How could he justify theirstay when he has been ruling Afghanistan for more than two years? Millionsof Afghans can be sighted in on Pakistani soil.

Khalilzad termed Pakistan sanctuary of rebels. This tout of theYankees should have been told that Pakistan joined the war not to crush therebels, but terrorists. It would have been better if he had advised his masterto redress the grievances of Pushtoons. This was the saner way to stopPushtoon rebels becoming terrorists.

Pakistan at last spurned Afghan claim over Taliban activities andblasted Karzais remarks about Islamabads cooperation in the fight againstterrorism. What the Afghan leaders can and must do is to talk less and domore in putting their house in order. Kabul recoiled and termed theseremarks irresponsible.

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Pakistan never refused to do more, but kept mentioning its limitations.Musharraf rejected the notion of going slow against terrorism. He, however,wanted electronic intelligence and high-technology intelligence devices.Pakistan also sought helicopters and UAVs for surveillance and asked Kabulto share intelligence. Pakistan was doing all to improve border securitysaid Kasuri. He vowed to strengthen cooperation against terrorism.Surveillance of Pak-Afghan border was intensified and fencing of borderwas started in October.

Despite allegations and counter allegations, both Islamabad and Kabulhad always been cognizant of the fact that they faced common challenges.Karzai acknowledged that friendship with Pakistan was in Afghanistansinterest. Addressing a delegation of Pakistani journalists he said, Pak-Afghan ties are deep-rooted. Stable Afghan Government is in Pakistansinterest reciprocated Faisal. Kabul condemned suicide attack on Musharraf.Jamali and Karzai vowed to fight out terrorism, during formers visit toKabul.

Pakistan was aware of the fact that cross border movement was aconcern of the civilized world rather than a worry of Afghans. A Canadiandelegation was escorted to Pak-Afghan border in November to provide themfirst hand knowledge of ground realities and measures taken.

A month later senior foreign diplomats visited Pak-Afghan border.No trespassing by undesired elements across border assured GovernorBaluchistan to the visitors. He added with grief, it is heart-burning to notethat there is no matching appreciation for our contributions in these effortsagainst terrorism. He should have also told that it was wrong to callresistance of Iraqis and Afghans as terrorism.

In addition to taking preventive measures Pakistan consented to jointoperations against Taliban and al-Qaeda. Pak-US-Afghan body stepped upanti-terror activity. Top Pak, Afghan and US officials visited disputed borderand both neighbours agreed to strengthen the control.

The Crusaders wanted more. They pressed Pakistan to launchoperations in Waziristan, the tribal area adjacent to troublesome Khost,Paktia and Paktika. Pakistan was coerced to employ its troops againstPushtoons and a force was assembled in South Waziristan for crackdown.

Right at the outset four soldiers were killed in Wana when their campwas subjected to rocket attack on 9th January. Next day a bomb blasted nearpolice check post in Tank. Punjab sports minister along with three personswent missing in the area.

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Wana Jirga served 48-hour ultimatum for surrender of wanted men.Tribesmen offered help ahead of deadline. The authorities were asked to takeelders into confidence before carrying out search of suspected places. It wasquite sensible suggestion.

Hunt of wanted men by Tribal Lashkar was also proposed. On 13thJanuary three tribesmen surrendered and seventeen more were producedbefore authorities in next three days. The most wanted men remainedunaccounted for.

Nevertheless Powell was happy about operation. I am pleased thatPresident Mushsrraf has responded to our overtures and is conducting newmilitary operations in that region this week. And he understands that thiskind of rogue presence is not in his interest and is dangerous for Pakistan,just as its dangerous to Afghanistan. If asked, the Government of Pakistanwould still deny any outside interference in its internal affairs.

Operations carried out under duress were criticized. Wana action wastermed a conspiracy against Pushtoons by ANP. Asfandyar said that theworld knew who brought al-Qaeda in this region. Imran condemned militaryaction. There was a row in Senate and JUI-F leader demanded end tooperation. Earlier Baluchistan Assembly had asked for troops pullout fromborder.

Pakistan never allowed Kabuls impulsive reactions to mar bilateralrelations. Trade activities kept increasing and Pakistan expected $ 1 billiontrade with Afghanistan. National Bank of Pakistan opened a branch inKabul. Pak-Afghan JMC meeting was quite productive according to Aziz.Pakistan remained committed to rebuilding Afghanistan. Survey for layingChaman-Kandahar rail track progressed. PIA planned to operate threeweekly flights to Kabul.

Afghanistan handed over 53 detainees in November and 49 more werefreed in mid January against expectations of release of all Pakistaniprisoners held in different jails. Pakistan freed 149 Afghans before Jamali setout for Kabul. Release of prisoners like pigeons every time a VIP visited theother country was not in good taste. Those who deserved to be released,must be released; visit or no visit.

Even Benazir wanted the government to do more in the context ofaddressing Karzais concerns. She tried to be more civilized than thecivilized. Who should do more: US, Pakistan or Afghanistan askedRahimullah Yusufzai. Every day, Afghan government functionaries inKabul, Jalalabad, Khost, Ghazni, Kandahar or Helmand issue statements

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claiming that the Taliban had found sanctuaries in Pakistan and regrouped tolaunch attacks on Afghanistan.

He answered, the US and the Karzai government would have toconcentrate on accelerating Afghanistans reconstruction. Instead of makingPakistan the scapegoat for their own failures, they also need to do more tocheck the movement of al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters on their side of thelong and porous Pak-Afghan border and stop them from launching attacks inAfghanistan. Denying the sanctuaries in Afghanistan by initiating measuresaimed at ending the alienation of the Pushtoon population would probablybe the best strategy in the present situation.

CONCLUSIONImprovement of security and acceleration of reconstruction of

Afghanistan have not received the required attention of all concerned.Therefore, Karzais calls for unity, prosperity and stability are likely toremain unanswered, despite his optimism about Afghans future.

Pushtoons wont give up struggle despite their complete isolation.Domination of Tajiks in Kabul will remain a uniting factor. Glimpses of theirunity were witnessed during meeting of Loya Jirga.

US death toll in Afghanistan has reached one hundred. Someobservers thought American losses were more than the reported in media.There were no grounds to believe this contention. America has only 15,000troops in entire country which are used quite sparingly in direct encounters.

The effects of American casualties cannot be considered in isolationof the losses of forces resisting them. America has the ability to kill in twominutes, more than its soldiers killed in two years. And as long asdifferences between various factions of Afghans persist, American losseswill remain low.

Afghans have reasons to be angry with Pakistan, but they must realizethat peace with Pakistan is extremely important for both the countries. Bothseemed to be conscious of this; however both failed to understand that peacewas not necessarily as important for the Crusaders as for them.

Pakistan can never stop the movement across Durand Line even byerecting fence. It must press for redress of grievances of Pushtoons ratherthan alienating own tribes in meeting demand of the Crusaders to do more.Jamali while saying US taking on too much in war on terror and going to

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Iraq leaving Afghanistan unstable conveyed the same message. This has tobe conveyed more explicitly.

16th January 2004

FOUR RISK FACTORS

No pressure on vital issues said Musharraf on 29th November. Sevenweeks later, after having acquired vote of confidence he addressed the jointsession of the Parliament. He warned the elected representatives against fourmajor risk factors: allegations of nuclear proliferation, cross border terrorismin Kashmir, cross border terrorism in Afghanistan and accusation ofextremism within Pakistan.

As regards proliferation of nuclear technology Pakistan was alreadyinvestigating about scientists greed after denying government levelinvolvement in providing assistance to any third country. Adoption of middleline, between guilty and not guilty, provided fuel to Western Media forraging the fire.

Musharraf while talking to Kashmiri leaders on 22nd December askedDelhi to show flexibility on core issue. He boasted, Pakistan cannot becoerced on Kashmir. Two weeks later he formally assured Vajpayee that hewould not allow use of any territory under Pakistans control to supportarmed freedom struggle of Kashmiris, or cross border terrorism as Indiapreferred to call it.

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For the satisfaction of the Crusaders and Kabul, Pakistan recentlylaunched operation in tribal area, which was appreciated by America. Yet thegovernment insisted that operation was against criminals hiding in theseareas. No invisible power behind FATA operation said Kasuri; therebyaccepting that everything was crystal clear. This risk factor has been coveredin the last article.

Musharraf ruled out any room for extremism on Pakistans soil. Thisword, like terrorism, is yet to be defined to establish as to who are the realextremists. The government, however, continued with its crackdown againstthe extremists. America was not satisfied with the progress made againstthis evil; hence it announced long-term strategic partnership with India. Suchpartnerships were essential to tackle Islamic militancy.

PROLIFERATION FACTORLibya decided to rid itself of WMDs and opted for international

inspections. Its officials met IAEA chief and he announced inspection at theend of the month. IAEA team discussed nuclear issue with Libyan officialson 28th December. Next day Libya revealed nuke secrets and showedwillingness to allow snap checks. ElBaradei wound up landmark visit withpraise for Tripolis cooperation. His team completed nuke probe andagreement to dismantle Libyan nukes was reached on 19th January.

Qaddafi advised other states to give up their nuclear programmes. TheCrusaders rejoiced over another visible success in war on terror. Americaasked rogue states to follow Libya. Powell said, Tripolis decision had putthe United States and its allies on the rollWe hope that the North Koreansare watching all this, and realizing that others are getting smart, and its timefor them to get smart too. In radio talk he also advised Syria, to get out ofthe hole that you have been in for all these years.

So, diplomacy, force and diplomacy - they have to be married up andeach used in service of the other he said. Powell believed that Iran has nowbeen more forthcoming toward the international community and started toacknowledge that it had programs denied earlier.

Qaddafis decision strengthened the conviction of the Crusaders aboutjustification of use of force against Ummah. Hoon in Sky News said, I dontthink you can separate out the relevance of military action in Iraq from thedecisions which the Libyans have takenWe showed after Saddam Hussein

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failed to cooperate with the UN that we meant business and Libya, and Ihope other countries, will draw that lesson.

Shahryar K Baseer in his letter to the News did not find much forrejoicing. Col Qaddafi has made the best move by any Muslim leader that Ihave seen so far. Admit to destroying something you never had and you willnot only gain approval, praise from all over the world, but you would alsoreceive rewards for it. Well done. Peter Preston of the Guardian said thesame with slight difference. Muammar Qaddafi, growing older, and hisisolated Libya, growing poorer, was getting nothing worthwhile from theatomic bomb they had not built yetLogic and common sense meantchanging tack.

In fact Libya tried to be clever to earn favours for its bold decision.Its Prime Minister asked Israel to scrap its weapons programme. Lockerbiedues tied to lifting of US curbs said Libya. Boldness of the decision was notduly acknowledged. America decided to keep sanctions in place and thesame day a report alleged that North Korea and Iran developed WMD inLibya. Qaddafis country still remained a rogue.

Iran signed protocol on surprise nuclear checks on 18th December, yetIsrael mulled attack on Irans nuclear sites, assuring steps to save Iraniancitizens. Iran warned Israel against attack and Rowhani claimed that hiscountry was respecting nuclear safeguards.

Iran too had divulged some secrets in its report submitted to IAEA,but denied foreign scientists had helped its nuclear plan. Sharing ofinformation with UN watchdog (or US) was enough for pointing fingerstoward Pakistan.

Reportedly Iran had contacted Pakistani scientists for acquisition ofnuclear know-how during Zia Era, but military leader kept the cooperationrestricted to peaceful programme. During Nawaz Sharifs first tenure therumours spread about Aslam Beg suggesting transfer of nuclear know-howto Iran. This time the civilian leader snubbed the General.

Iran too had tried to earn some rewards while surrendering. LikeLibya, Iran was also disappointed. America refused to send Iranian rebelshome and instead decided to send them to third countries. US easedsanctions against Iran due to Bam tragedy, but only temporarily.

North Korea rejected US move for six-party talks and vowed tocontinue building bombs. It pledged to fortify nuclear force and slammed

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US move to build low-yield nukes. Japan, US and South Korea softenedstance for the sake of six-way talks. In December North Korea gave greenlight for talks early next year.

Analysts observed that North Korea was unlikely to follow Libyaspath as it vowed to continue diplomatic wrestling with US. Washingtonmust agree to reward for refreezing nuclear weapons facilities, asked NorthKorea. China hailed the move. South Korea, US and Japan welcomed thereference about halt of nuclear activities.

On 9th January North Korea said that it would be a folly to hope itwould follow Libya. Next day it showed nuclear deterrent to USdelegation. US team cautioned against premature comments about theirvisit to nuclear complex. On 12th January North Korea again offered freezingof nuclear reactors.

Roh urged patience in nuclear row. In third week of January US andSouth Korea agreed to pull American troops out of Seoul. This confirmedthat America had no plans to use military means. The pullout meant meetingthe requirement of troops against Muslim World.

Revelations made by Iran and Libya led to investigations againstPakistani scientists. Before talking about investigations a few words abouthistory of proliferation as traced out by Shireen M Mazari:

Among the first proliferators in the nuclear field were the US andFrench governmentswho transferred nuclear technology to Israel.France insisted that it committed no violations as in 1950s because atthat time there was no agreement.

It is widely believed that two states (South Africa and Israel)conducted a joint nuclear weapon test in the Indian Ocean inSeptember 1979.

An ex-Mossad agent, Ostrovsky had disclosed that one of hisassignments was to escort a group of Indian nuclear scientists in mid-July 1984, who had come on secret mission to Israel to meet withIsraeli nuclear experts and exchange information.

India and Israel have also cooperated on the nuclear front and it isknown that the second set of nuclear tests conducted by India in May1998 were a joint Indo-Israel venture.

Russias role as a proliferator is another fascinating study - again

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linked to India. Nadeem Malik compiled following information about role of non-

governmental elements in trafficking nuclear technology: Urenco, a British, German and Dutch consortium, was the first name

in various international reports as the primary culprit for leakinguranium enrichment technology to Iran, Iraq and North Korea.Concerns about Urenco emerged more than 10 years ago whenthousands of centrifuge parts, based on Urenco designs, werediscovered in Iraq after the Gulf War.

When the United States and the IAEA were engaged in investigationsagainst Iranian nuclear programme, suspicions emerged that Iransuranium enrichment programme used technology identical to Pakistanplans. IAEA requested all third countries to cooperate closely inclarifying questions about Tehrans nuclear programme.

Iran reportedly informed IAEA that its centrifuge enrichmentprogramme was based on Urenco designs. (To enrich uranium toweapon-grade, centrifuges are used to process raw uranium into fuelfor reactors or fissile material for bombs. This enrichment processrequires perfect machines, which spin at twice the speed of sound.)

Urenco denied providing technology or blueprints to Iran, but thereare possibilities of obtaining it through a middle man or steal it froma nuclear laboratory.Mufti Jamiluddin Ahmad summarized the events leading to accusing

Pakistan. According to him: Muslims have at last started behaving or have been made to behave.

As the class of naughty students started behaving, the head-boythreatened to attack and destroy the Iranian programme.

Now come reports in Washington Post quoting European officialsand US, which point out overwhelmingly to Pakistan as the source ofcrucial technology that put Iran on a faster track toward becoming anuclear weapons power.

There are also reports about the involvement of some Germanbusiness people and a Sri Lankan Muslim. It is said that Iranians havegiven these names to IAEA.

This led to debriefing of A Q Khan, which was reassuring forAmerica. Wed certainly welcome Pakistans investigation and its

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debriefing of individuals who may have valuable information toconvey.

Pakistan had admitted a year earlier that scientists involved in its atombomb programme might have been driven by personal ambition or greed toexport technology to Iran, but insisted that government had no part in anysuch deals, reported a British newspaper. On receipt of two-page letter fromIAEA Pakistan embarked upon hectic debriefing of scientists. It sent nuclearprobe teams to Libya and Iran to look into greed factor which could haveled them to cash in on nations nuclear know-how.

IAEA assured guarding secrecy of Pakistani scientists role in Iraniannuclear programme. The Agency believed that public disclosure of suchnames, provided by the IAEA to Government of Pakistan, could jeopardizethe investigations of Pakistani nuclear scientists.

Saif-ul-Islam Gaddafi supported Pakistans contention. Libya haspurchased weapons and other necessary equipment from international blackmarket; not from Pakistan. We have purchased even the spare parts of ourpassenger planes from black market he came out with rather weakargument.

A Q Khan was being questioned accepted Foreign Office on 22ndDecember. Nadeem Malik reported that debriefing was linked to his past-one-time association with Urenco. By 21st January three scientists, YasinChohan, Mohammad Zubair and Saeed Ahmed, were released afterdebriefing. Three days later Rashid disclosed that eight scientists andadministrators from the Khan Research Laboratories were still held.

Government accepted that scientists debriefing was linked to IAEAletter, but denied involvement of FBI in debriefing and refused to handoverscientists to any foreign state. Pakistan pledged to distance itself from anyscientist found guilty of nuclear proliferation. The culprits, if found any,will be punished said Rashid.

Qadeers fate hanged in balance, reported Kamran Khan. He furtheradded that foreign accounts having proceeds from nuclear technologytransfer have been found. Dubai bank had provided the requiredinformation to Pakistan. The Iranian authorities have confirmed theinformation about bank accounts that were being controlled by suspectedPakistani scientists. The details of these accounts were held by IAEA andAmerica. Top scientists contacts with Dubai-based gold trader were also

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under probe. Its an open and shut case said his source. Spokesman termed the detention of scientist as normal practice.

Nobody asked him as to how many of them were detained before 9/11.Supreme Court Bar Association alleged that scientists debriefing was beingcarried out under US pressure. Nuclear scientists arrest also echoed inSenate on 10th December.

Surprisingly the criticism of debriefing from within Pakistan was farless than expected. Only Bilour expressed concern over questioning ofKhan. He reminded the government that India had honoured its nuclearscientist and elected him president. PPP and PML-N refused to attendbriefing on nuclear issue. Country-wide protest on 23rd January, mainly bylawyers, was too less and too late.

Meanwhile a Jew, Asher Karni, a businessman from an Africancountry, was arrested in Colorado on 14th January for exporting triggers toPakistan. This drama was necessary to add more suspense to Pakistansinvolvement in proliferation. UN also contemplated quizzing Benazir andNawaz on nuke export.

The role of developed world in proliferation of nuclear technology, byact or neglect, was ignored altogether. Urencos denial was accepted as finalword and other proliferators were not asked any questions at all, thoughAlBaradei had accepted existence of international network and itsinvolvement in proliferation.

IAEA was reminded in a press briefing that it had no legal mandate toevaluate the nuclear programmes of India, Pakistan and Israel and othercountries who have still not signed the NPT and full-scope safeguardagreement with IAEA. As reported by Zia Iqbal Shahid, Gwozdeckyadmitted, but insisted that all countries should become part of the non-proliferation regime and all should receive equal treatment.

Asked whether the IAEA still called India and Pakistan thresholdnuclear states or the status of the countries has been redefined by the IAEAafter they have conducted nuclear bangs, the spokesman parried the questionagain citing lack of jurisdiction over such countries. But he argued that thecurrent situation of nuclear and non-nuclear states would changeThecurrent situation where you have have and have-not nations isunsustainable in the long run.

The bias was too obvious. While sanctions were imposed on others on

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suspicions, Israel remained top recipient of American aid. Peter Preston ofthe Guardian questioned; if Libya can do it, why not Israel? He elaborated:

If Weapons of Mass Destruction are a menace in unstable regionssuch as the Middle East, if their availability must be reduced, the logicbegins to move closer to the confrontation we never seekBush andBlair seldom mention Israel.

Israel possessed 200 nuclear warheads 17 years earlier. That makesIsrael the worlds fifth largest nuclear power. US Congress has alsoaccepted that Israel has undeclared offensive chemical warfarecapabilities and is generally reported as having an undeclaredoffensive warfare programme.

Logic behind allowing Israel to possess these capabilities was that itwas surrounded by many potential foes who denied its right to exist.(The facts are to the contrary. Israel has been used for surroundingmany Arab states.)

Now Iraq stands wrecked, Libya has surrendered its right willinglyand Iran has stepped back voluntarily. Logic comes knocking atSharons door. The situation demands not to keep Dimona and thebiological research centre at Nes Ziona out of question and topretend that they dont exist.

In the meantime Israel could hardly contain its delight at the turn ofevents. With one of its sworn enemies with nuclear ambitions havingbeen trapped in a hole, and another becoming warm and fuzzy withthe West, it is left holding all the cards or, to be precise, the long-rangenuclear missiles and nuclear submarines wrote Linda S Heard in GulfNews. Shireen M Mazari viewed the bias from Pakistans perspective. She

blamed bizarre confessions from the weak within the Ummah providingfurther abusive ammo for the highly prejudiced Western Media and theirgovernment. But by the logic under which France provided nucleartechnology to Israel, those states, and citizens of those states, that are notsignatories of the NPT, MTCR and other agreements, do nothing wrong ifthey provide missile and nuclear support for third countries she added.

Even according to the Western Media international market in nuclearweapons technology has flourished with European, Asian and NorthAmerican companies, middle-men from Germany, Sri Lanka and Israel, andscientists from Germany, Pakistan and India.

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Pakistan too had developed its nuclear capability through stealing orby violating the trade regime. It exploited the civilized peoples lust formonetary gains. If the West could destroy countries to earn profits fromreconstruction, its individuals called middlemen were justified in sellingsecrets to accumulate easy money. Naomi Klein said the same thing. Itsgreed, not ideology that rules the US and rest of the civilized world.

America too was not bothered about intricacies of logic in pursuanceof its aim of denuding Ummah from any worthwhile military capability. Themanner in which Bush and Blair gave the good news of Libya denouncingthe WMDs was similar to those made after fall of Kabul and Baghdad.

No doubt destruction of these countries had convinced Qaddafi aboutfutility of nuclear programme and America expected more countries wouldfollow. Bush threatened the suspects; US will never seek permission forwar. The noose was now being tightened around Pakistan.

Haass, a former key member of Bush Administration, alleged thatPakistan was still a threat to world. To this end the civilized people couldapply the laws of jungle as and when desired, the laws that continuethreatening world order in words of Annan.

Musharraf and Jamali repeatedly asserted that nuclear assets were insafe hands, but American trust wont last for long. Emphasis has alreadyshifted from no nuclear transfer to nuke safeguards. America expressedits doubts in concealed statements. Pakistan was expected to live up tonuclear pledge.

The final effect of ongoing investigations being carried out in ownnational interest could prove to the contrary. According to the News dated24th January, the manner in which the whole process was conducted seemedto judge them (scientists) guilty before being heard.

Some greedy scientists might be caught and punished. But that wontmark end of the row. Western Media will then start accusing the governmentof its inability to control activities of selected few. How could such a countrybe trusted with safety of nuclear weapons?

These fears were confirmed by the statements of Pakistani leaders.Jamali urged PAF to exercise full vigil. Army overhauled nuclear commandand control structure. During recent visit to Davos Musharraf refused to giveup nuclear programme unilaterally, but was willing to consider it if Indiaagreed to do so.

This brought in Indian nuclear programme. According to Praful

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Bidwai although nuclear technology and material are among the worldshighly traded items and many Western states are deeply implicated, yet therecent events constitute a wake up call to us in South Asia. Nuclearweapons have become a liability, not an asset.

According to Zia Iqbal Shahid, after Tripolis pledge to give upLibyas unconventional weapons programme, the major world powers intendto concentrate on South Asia pressing India and Pakistan to follow theexample by initiating a process which could culminate in dismantling boththe countries nuclear, chemical and missile programmes.

Once Bidwais awareness spreads and India also realizes that itshegemonic designs can be pursued far more effectively through conventionalmeans, it might agree to have nuclear-free South Asia. If this does nothappen, Pakistan can be pressed to give up unilaterally. Badar Alam,however, felt that Pakistan and India have already frozen their nuclearprogrammes and missile development would also stop.

Musharraf complained about involvement of scientists of othercountries and about passing of breaches by European countries in silence,but nobody listened. Similarly his cries upon being asked to rollback thenuclear programme could prove ineffective and his pledges of nocompromise would be of no help. Peaceful component of Pakistans nuclearprogramme could also be affected.

Dick Cheney, the day he met Musharraf in Davos, said that directthreats require decisive action. Democratic nations must join together tofight against terrorism and the spread of the worlds most dangerousweapons. Who else was left other than North Korea and Pakistan? Theformer enjoyed the advantage of not being part of the Ummah.

PLEADING GUILTY Attempts for peace were sincere, claimed Jamali. President and Prime

Minister lauded acceptance of ceasefire by India and adoption of confidencebuilding measures was accelerated. Pakistan accepted Indian demand ofaccording preference to restoration of over-flights over other means oftransportation. Pak-India air link was resumed on 1st January. PIA planned12 flights a week to Delhi and Bombay. Air links with Bangladesh andNepal were also resumed on 4th January.

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India agreed for talks on Samjhota Express. The matter was discussedin New Delhi on 17-18 December in which both countries agreed forresumption of rail link with effect from January 15. Bus service to Amritsarwas also considered.

Pakistan also agreed to increased bilateral trade though it was doneindirectly by signing free trade pact at SAARC Summit. Other measurestaken were:

Foreign ministers agreed on additional protocol on terrorism andsocial charter for poverty alleviation.

India proposed direct sea-link and Pakistan welcomed the proposal. State Bank of Pakistan froze accounts of three banned groups. AJK Government banned six religious groups and sealed their offices. India handed over seven prisoners to Pakistan on 5th December. Replica of Ghauri missile was dismantled in Islamabad and replaced

with peace statue. Pakistan promised India-Iran gas pipeline safety. India freed Pakistani women sleepwalker after detaining her long

enough to be raped and give birth to baby girl. Pak-India border security officials held talks on 20th December and

agreed to joint border patrolling. India offered new transport and diplomatic ties to Pakistan. Two roads in Quetta and Hyderabad were dedicated to Hindu hero

Lala Lajpat Rai. Musharraf was satisfied with peace at Line of Control. Incursions

were down after ceasefire acknowledged Vajpayee. However meaningfuldialogue with Islamabad could resume only after Pakistan permanently endsfighters crossing into IHK he added.

Some measures were mentioned for the sake of point scoring.Pakistan considered conferring an award to Vajpayee. Musharraf promisedpullout from AJK if India agreed to withdraw from IHK. India proposedcelebrating 150th anniversary of 1957 war of independence jointly by India,Pakistan and Bangladesh. Vajpayee suggested common currency for SouthAsia. Pakistan termed the proposal as premature.

Single currency feeler tasted sweet and sour to Ibrahim Khan. India

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wanted to follow European example. It did not realize that in a region withmost political disputes resolved and military instrument of NATO fullyestablished for protection of common political and economic interests, theidea took half a century to materialize. Indian intention to rush fromconfrontation to common currency was too noble to be trusted.

Mother of all the measures was announced by Musharraf in aninterview. He said that Pakistan was ready to drop plebiscite demand. Weare for United Nations Security Council Resolutions, however, now we haveleft that aside.

The statement earned mixed reaction. America welcomed his stanceon Kashmir. European diplomats said that Indian, Pakistani and Kashmirileaders indicated their propensity by dropping plebiscite demand fortripartite talks. India too welcomed surprise offer. Some Pakistanicommentators also welcomed it. Mufti Jamiluddin Ahmad saw Pakistancoming out of stereo types. Zia Iqbal Shahid hoped that the offer willencourage diplomacy. Some leaders in IHK saw it as step forward.

Opposition parties termed it another U-turn. If so, it had been takenlong ago, but made public only now. Musharraf has no right to decide onplebiscite said Qazi. Senators traded allegations on Kashmir. HizbulMujahideen criticized the offer.

It is difficult for people to digest flexibility opined Nusrat Javeed.Foreign Office clarified that Musharraf was quoted out of context. Nochange in stand on Kashmir said Rashid. Kasuri assured that demand basedon UN Resolutions was not dropped.

India made a positive move by accepting the invitation to attend theSAARC Summit, but ambiguity about Vajpaye