The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP)

National scale action to operationalise the 2⁰C target

Steve Pye, UCL Energy Institute

June 1st 2015

67th Semi-annual ETSAP meeting, Abu Dhabi

Presentation overview

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• What is the DDPP, and why does it matter?

• UK analysis under DDPP using a TIMES model

The DDPP Initiative

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• Objective to demonstrate that countries can achieve deeply decarbonized energy systems by 2050, commensurate with the transformation required under the internationally agreed 2 °C target.

• Based on national level analyses by a consortium of the 16 largest emitting countries (>70% of global energy-related CO2 emissions).

• Each country developing multiple transition pathways to demonstrate how deep reductions can be met, guided by preliminary 1.6tCO2/capita.

• No burden sharing – all countries have to move in this direction.

Strengths of DDPP

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• Operationalises the 2°C target at national level

• Use of country-focused analysis means national context and characteristics accounted for

• Multiple pathways, recognizing different options

• A long term framework, critical for analyzing type of system transitions required

• Credible with national stakeholders; analysis undertaken by established, independent country teams

• Of course some key challenges – – Coordination!

– Consistency of assumptions between teams

– Different tools, and need for aggregation of results

The role of TIMES in DDPP

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• Over 40% of national teams are using TIMES modelling to some extent.

DDPP aims to make a difference in 2015, a critical year

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• Backed by the UN and French Government.

• Interim report delivered to Ban Ki-moon in July 2014, in support of the Leaders’ Climate Summit, and to the French Foreign minister.

• Final report to be published in September 2015 – and key publication in run up to COP21.

An iterative process: can the required reductions be made?

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Significant reduction of energy-related CO2 emissions in 2050/2010

-45% in absolute

-56% per capita

-88% per GDP

However, not sufficient for the 2°C target

Energy-related CO2 emissions (Gt)

IPCC estimates at the global level

15 DDPs

2050 level 12 11,5

Cumulative 2010-2050 825 792

What do we hope can be achieved?

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• Demonstrate strong decarbonisation can be achieved based on rigorous analysis, as required by science.

• Recognition at COP-21 that DDPs are a necessity (but in no way play into the negotiations at this stage).

• Provide a network and tools to facilitate and support wider DDP participation.

DDPP activities / outputs

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• First round of DDP analysis (September 2014)

• Technical feasibility and options

• One illustrative Pathway

• Challenges and enabling conditions

• Second detailed national analyses (June 2015)

• Final DDPP report (September 2015)

• Climate Policy Special Issue (~December 2015)

Full report available at www.deepdecarbonization.org

A brief overview of the new UK analysis

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• Current emissions

• Key challenges facing UK to achieve a DDP

• Scenario formulation

• Selected modelling results

• Conclusions for policy

Current GHG emissions: CO2 from energy use is critical, accounting for 82% of total GHG emissions

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What are the key transition challenges?

Developing DDPP scenarios

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D-EXP Decarbonise and expand

M-VEC Multi-vector pathways

R-DEM Demand side focus

Strong per capita emission decline necessary by 2030

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• Rapid reduction necessary, with a near halving of per capita emissions by 2030.

• Key issue of residual emissions in 2050.

How do we decarbonisation the system?

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• Out to 2030, primarily in the power sector – with stronger activity towards end use sectors post-2030.

• However, large market capacity investment pre-2030 to scale end use technology deployment.

Power sector decarbonisation vital – but different pathways

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• Strong decarbonisation by 2030, and system expansion by 2050.

• Different systems emerge based on outlook for different technologies.

Transport: the transition to low emission vehicles

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• Strong passenger car decarbonisation, driven by electrification in long term but also important role of ICE/hybrid efficiency, and hydrogen; limited role for biofuels.

• Virtually no oil left in the mix by 2050.

Residential buildings: re-orientation of energy services

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• Shifting from central heating a big challenge.

• Later mitigation in sector compared to transport; strong role for heat pumps – but gas use continues to deal with heating peak.

• Role for district heating, providing additional storage in strongly electrified sector. Stronger role if harness other low carbon heat sources but infrastructure challenge.

The role of CCS

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• A large part of the transition is predicated on emergence of CCS, although to a lesser extent under M-VEC.

• Huge uncertainty in modelling analysis, with implications for policy / international cooperation.

Gas supply

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• Distribution level supply drops off significantly. • Post-2030 not a license for further fossil exploitation as wholly contingent on CCS

(H2 production, power generation).

Report messages: domestic policy

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• Consistency of policy portfolio EMR implementation, Airport expansion, Infrastructure Bill • Long term legislative framework but limited policy time horizon, and current

ambition gap • Delivering action we know about with negligible regret Energy efficiency programme ambition weak; strong opportunity for cost- effective action, and dealing with energy poverty. • Preparing for long term critical #10yearstoprepare

• Review ambition of 2050 target, with the need for a push to net-zero soon after

2050

Report messages: international engagement

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• Increase global cooperation on technologies, particularly on CCS, offshore wind and LEVs

• Share experiences and legislation, policy and institutions (de-politicization, independent advice, monitoring)

• Continue to (and increase) spend on climate-focused development

Thanks for listening. Any questions? s.pye@ucl.ac.uk @st_pye

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Such models have been used to inform UK climate & energy strategy since 2003

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RCEP 2000 EWP 2003 CCC 2008 EWP 2007 DECC 2011

Proposed targets

Building evidence base and political consensus

Legislative framework and targets

Implementation framework