the deep decarbonisation pathways project (ddpp)
TRANSCRIPT
Solutions for a low-carbon transitionand prospects for COP-21
The Deep Decarbonisation Pathways Project (DDPP)
Henri WAISMAN
IDDRI
Astana Economic Forum – 21 May 2015Session: Decarbonization and carbon trading - the drivers of the "new economy".
2°C , a political target
“Deep cuts in global GHG emissions are required according to science, and as documented in IPCC AR4, […] so as to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels” (Cancun agreement - décision 1/CP.16) No plan B at political level Compatibility of national commitments with 2°C
Global peaking around 2020 At current pace (36 GtCO2 in 2010), budget exhausted in 15 - 40 years
Global emissions in absolute: divided by more than 2 by 2050 (36 →15Gt) Emissions per capita: divided by more than 3 (4,9 → 1,6tCO2/cap) Emissions per GDP: divided by almost 10 (400 →50 gCO2/$)
Carbon neutrality in the second half of XXIe century Profound transformations
How to reach 2°C?Deep Decarbonization Pathways
Deep Decarbonization Pathways (DDPs) = internally coherent visions of large-scale & long-term low-carbon transformation of the energy system around 4 pillars
Structural change Energy efficiency Decarbonization of energy supply (electricity, fuels) Fuel switching towards low-carbon energies
What combination of measures? Implementation and operational aspects (techniques, finance,
politicies)
The role of Deep Decarbonization Pathways (DDPs)
Support the national definition of the INDC Consistency of national contributions with 2°C (long-term) Provide information that complements and enrichs the short-term
and aggregate representation given in NDCs Enable discussions on national mitigation strategies to increase
ambitionat the country-scale (with different groups of national
stakeholders supporting different visions of the transition) with the international community (other Parties, sectoral experts,
practitioners…) Identify strategic domains for global action in support of national
transitions
DEEP DECARBONIZATION PATHWAYS PROJECT – GENERAL PRESENTATION
Objectives
Support/inform the elaboration and implementation of decarbonization strategies consistent with the 2°C No ex-ante allocation of carbon budget from the top National deep transformations (≠ marginal adjustments from
current trends) + Transition challenges
Favor the appropriation by policymakers and stakeholders of challenges and opportunities of their low-carbon transition Improve learning inside countries (Cf. nationales debates on
energy and climate) Structure dialog among countries (Cf. dynamic negotiation
process after Paris)
Approach
Elaborate decarbonization pathways that are National : articulation development / mitigation
National circumstances, interests and needs: socio-eco conditions, development priorities, infrastructure stock, resource endowment
Transparent : explicit contentTransformations disaggregated by sector and by driver of
decrabonization Long-term: backcasting to 2050
Tension between initial situation and long-term demanding target
(Current) Organisation
A joint initiative IDDRI / SDSN 16 countries (70% of 2010 CO2 emissions )
16 country teams, independent of their governments Expert judgment National models Policy relevance
DDPP analysis after 2015
Extending the number and types of countries Different levels of development Different challenges and interests in the energy field Beyond energy
Help to structure the national debates around energy/climate with diverse stakeholders carrying different visions
Support capacity building within the countries to ensure the availability of assessment tools able to inform discussions
New scales of analysis (cities, regions…)
DEEP DECARBONIZATION PATHWAYS PROJECT – 2015 ANALYSIS
www.deepdecarbonization.org
DDPP analysis in 2015
Two types of reports : National reports (May-June 2015) Global synthesis report (September 2015)
Refining and extend the analysis of national decarbonization trajectories Technical and structural assumptions Socio-economic dimensions National and global financial needs Policy and measures at national and global scales Uncertainties and dynamic adjustment of trajectories
Some high-level insights from the DDPP (1/2)
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Deep decarbonization consistent with the 2°C target is feasible in all contexts– DDPs can be defined in all countries of analysis– Countries have a wide array of choices (societal preferences). – Ambitious early action is required in all contexts
The implementation of deep decarbonization is realistic and accessible– Short-term action relies on already existing solutions – Energy sector investments are only marginally higher than current
trends, but their structure must change substantially – Long-term DD relies on technologies that are not currently available
but the portfolio of required solutions is already known
Some high-level insights from the DDPP (2/2)
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Deep decarbonization can favor the emergence of a desired energy model for economic development – Sensitivity to volatile and uncontrolled external conditions. – Decarbonization and domestic socio-economic development
priorities can be addressed consistently– Improved energy access and tackling energy poverty.
International cooperation is crucial– Clear and early collective signal to favor alignment of expectations– Globally coordinated technology push to develop a wide portfolio
of low-carbon technologies (no silver bullet)– Regulation of trade patterns to avoid extreme polarization of
carbon-intensive goods
BACKUP SLIDES
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Emission pathways for the 15 countries
Important reductions 2050/2010
o -45% in absoluteo -56% per capitao -88% per unit of GDP … but not enough for the
2°C target
CO2 Emissions (Gt)
IPCC estimates (world)
15 DDPs
Cumul2010-2050
825 792
Deep decarbonization requires all technical pillars
Technical solutions are different across the countries
The short-term challenge
Deep decarbonization is compatible with continued economic growth
Deep decarbonization is compatible with access to energy services
(ex: mobility)
Beyond technical improvements: structural change and development
styles