the demographic dividend in africa - gates institute in africa.pdf · fertility reduction the...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Structure• Introduction
• Demographic Dynamics in Africa
• Determinants of the Demographic Transition
• Human Development Payoffs
• Jobs Payoffs
• Economic Growth in Africa
• Policies to Speed up the Demographic Transition
• Policies to Reap the Demographic Dividend2
Total Fertility Rate in Select World Regions, 1960–2010
3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Tota
l Fer
tilit
y R
ate
Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean
Middle East & North Africa North America South Asia World
Source: Health, Nutrition and Population Statistics. The World DataBank 2013.
Great Heterogeneity in Fertility Transition
4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7Mauritius Réunion Gabon Togo Senegal Malawi Niger
South Africa Lesotho Ghana Comoros DRC
Cape Verde Namibia Ethiopia Gambia Zambia
Botswana Zimbabwe Congo Mozambique Chad
Swaziland Côte d'Ivoire Sierra Leone Uganda
Sao Tome and Principe Burundi Guinea-Bissau Somalia
Sudan Equatorial Guinea Mali
Cameroon Liberia
Eritrea Rwanda
Mauritania Guinea
Kenya Benin
Madagascar Tanzania
CAR Nigeria
Angola
Burkina Faso
Total Fertility Rates
Fertility ReductionThe Demographic Dividend
• Pure age structure effects
• Behavioral effects
– Female labor supply
– Investments in child health and education
– Longevity and saving
• Dividend not automatic
– extra resources must be productively employed
– Dividend must be earned by investments
5
Working Age Share Projections
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Rat
io o
f W
ork
ing
Age
to
D
epen
den
ts
YearSource: World Bank Medium Fertility Variant
Ratio of Working Age to Dependents
Sub Saharan Africa
East Asia
South Asia
6
Probabilistic Projections of Fertility
7
Proximate Determinates of Fertility
8
Source: Madhavan et al 2013. Data Source: Various DHSs.
Proximate Determinants of Fertility Change
9
From Madhavan et al 2013. Data Source: Various DHS.
Policies to Promote Fertility Decline Decrease Child Mortality
10*World Development Indicator Data. 2010
Mortality Transition
11
Below 50 50-99 100-149 150-199 200-249
Réunion Namibia Comoros Guinea Chad
Mauritius Botswana Tanzania Cameroon
Cape Verde Madagascar Kenya Zambia
Eritrea Gambia Nigeria
Ghana Ethiopia Niger
Sao Tome and Principe Swaziland Burundi
Gabon Congo Burkina Faso
South Africa Lesotho Equatorial Guinea
Zimbabwe Togo Angola
Senegal Mauritania CAR
Sudan Côte d'Ivoire Sierra Leone
Liberia Somalia
Uganda DRC
Rwanda Mali
Benin Guinea-Bissau
Malawi
Mozambique
Under 5 Mortality per 1000 Births
Fertility Rates by Women’s Education
Data from various Demographic and Health Surveys.
Education of Women by Birth Year: Ethiopia
13
01
23
45
Ave
rag
e Y
ea
rs o
f S
choo
ling
, F
em
ale
1960 1970 1980 1990Birth Cohort
No Coverage Partial Coverage Full Coverage
Demographic Dividend is not Automatic
• Depends on effective policies in other areas – Education– Labor market– Trade– Governance– Macroeconomic management
• Demography creates supply side increases in labor, human capital, and saving – but there is still a need for jobs and investment
Fertility Rates by Mother’s Education
Data from various Demographic and Health Surveys.
Female Education Is a Major Diver of Fertility Rates
16
Education of Women by Birth Year: Ethiopia
17
01
23
45
Ave
rag
e Y
ea
rs o
f S
choo
ling
, F
em
ale
1960 1970 1980 1990Birth Cohort
No Coverage Partial Coverage Full Coverage
18
Male-Female Education Gap in Sub-Saharan Africa--
Secondary Enrollment
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
12-14 years 15-19 years 20-24 years 25-29 years(Reference)
30-34 years 35-39 years 40-44 years 45-49 years
Infant MortalityAdjusted RRR: Age of Mother at Birth
Short Birth Spacing Increases Infant Mortality
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
7-11months
12-17months
18-23months
24-29months
30-35months
36-47months
(ref)
48-59months
60-95months
>95months
Adjusted Relative Risk by Birth Interval
20
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1961-1965 1966-1970 1971-1975 1976-1980 1981-1985 1986-1990 1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010
Annual Growth RatesGDP & GDP per capita
GDP growth GDP per capita growth
Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
21
22
Economic ConsequencesThe Demographic Dividend
• Working age share 30 – 50 year boost
– Labor force per capita
• Investments in
• Child Health
• Education
• Female Labor Force Participation
• Savings
23
Increasing Youth Cohorts In Sub Saharan Africa
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
Ye
arl
y C
oh
ort
15
-24
(M
illi
on
)
Eastern Asia South-Central Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
24
Impact of large youth cohorts
• Youth Unemployment
• Underemployment in unpaid and low productivity jobs
• Slows industrialization and structural transformation, youth are absorbed in low productivity sectors such as agriculture
• Requires high levels of investment to maintain capital labor ratio
25
DRCTotal Population Under Different
Scenarios
26
DRCWorking Age Share of the
Population
27
DRCAverage Years of Schooling of the
Workforce
28
DRCShare of Workers not in Agriculture
29
Key:
DRCPPP Income per Capita
30
31
Goals Polices
Speed the Demographic Transition
To empower women and allow fertility choices
Child mortality, female education, social norms, access to family planning
Realizing the Labor Force Dividend
To absorb Youth Bulge FDI, domestic saving, natural resource revenueseducation, infrastructure, Industrialization(Agriculture and natural resources not sufficient)
Realizing the Savings Dividend
Harness the 2nd dividend Improve policies and institutions for promotingdomestic savings and investment