the espon scientific platform data, tools and scientific innovation moritz lennert - igeat - ulb
TRANSCRIPT
The ESPON Scientific Platform
Data, tools and scientific innovation
Moritz Lennert - IGEAT - ULB
Overview• Expressionism or realism: Using regional data
– The vast treasures of the ESPON Database– Limits to regional data: MAUP and disrupted time series– Possible solution for the future: Long-Term Database and
cartographic techniques– From data to messages: policy indicators
• Do It Yourself: ESPON tools for everyone– ESPON DB and Data Navigator– WebGIS– HyperAtlas
• Experiments in vitro: Modelling techniques for territorial research– Models to analyse the current situation– Models to simulate and forecast the future– A general model for territorial impact assessment
• Looking ahead: Prospective thinking• Friendly discussions: Scientific peer review in ESPON ?
Expressionism or realism: Using regional dataThe vast treasures of the ESPON Database
• covers 29 countries 29 countries !!!
Expressionism or realism: Using regional dataLimits to regional data: Disrupted time series and MAUP
2) Modifiable Area Unit Problem:Results of spatial analyses depend on definition of studied units
An illustration of MAUP: the variation of Urban-Rural Typology at different levels of territorial aggregation (NUTS 2 and NUTS 3) (Project 3.4.3
Proposals:• new hierarchies of territorial division for research and strategic policy making
• development of interactive and dynamic cartographic methods• development of multiscalar methods of analysis
1) Time series interrupted by change in data and region definitions
Expressionism or realism: Using regional dataPossible solution for the future I: Long-Term Database
Hierarchy of geographic entities, names
Definitions ofbasic stock indicators (population, area, GDP)
Definitions and formulas of complex indicators (pop. density, GDP/cap)
The actual data
Collection of estimation methods for missing data
Expert system for choice of estimation method
Expressionism or realism: Using regional dataPossible solution for the future II: Innovative cartography
Expressionism or realism: Using regional dataFrom data to messages: policy indicators
Do It Yourself: ESPON tools for everyoneESPON DB and Data Navigator
Do It Yourself: ESPON tools for everyoneHyperAtlas and WebGIS
• ESPON WebGis: Mapping the ESPON database online
• ESPON HyperAtlas: Innovative multiscalar cartography on your desktop
Experiments in vitro: Modelling techniques for territorial researchModels to analyse the state of the system
• Mostly pre-existing models, adapted to the specific needs of ESPON research
• Most models concern transport theme: accessibility, flows, pollution, infrastructures, etc
• Provide complex indicators
• Examples: ICON index, various accessibility measures, logistic model of IT diffusal, etc.
• Used for the analysis of the situation of the modelled system in the present or past
Experiments in vitro: Modelling techniques for territorial researchModels to simulate and forecast the future
• deal with the future, based on different assumptions => forecast and impact assessment
• MAcro-economic, Sectoral, Social and Territorial (MASST) model
• Existing models used: SASI, CGEurope, STIMA, CAPRI, etc
• Some ESPON babies:
• Know Trans-European Networks (KTEN/K10)• Demographic Cohort-Survial model
• RESSET (accessibility and economic development)
Experiments in vitro: Modelling techniques for territorial researchA general model for territorial impact assessment
Multicriteria Model with two main layers:
1) General assessment
GA = Σc θc . PIMc
2) Territorial assessment
TIMr = Σc θc . Sr,c . (PIMc . PIr ). Par
r = regionSr,c = sensitivity of region r to criterion cPI = policy intensityPA = policy applicability
c = criterionθc = weightPIM = general impact
Looking ahead: Prospective thinking
• Policy making = future-oriented => Applied scientific results have to respond to this need
• Territorial development = very long-term
• Much of what will happen is out of reach for « classical » (quantitative) scientific methods
• ESPON provides prospective thinking in the form of the scenarios
• Thinking beyond the verifiable and imagining the possible in scientifically informed creative prospective research
• Permanent process depending on policy goals and general evolutions
Friendly discussions: Scientific peer review in ESPON ?
• If we want evidenced-based policy, we need solid evidence• Knowledge grows through controversial discussion
• ESPON seminars always very polite:
Friendly discussions: Scientific peer review in ESPON ?
• Can be a frustrating experience for all sides
• We just had the first experience of « peer review » in ESPON
• Sometimes it feels like this:
Friendly discussions: Scientific peer review in ESPON ?
• But it advances everyone's knowledge
• Have a great seminar !
• So, let's dare some more controversy: