1

The Evolving Global Electric Supply Scenario and Biofuels Opportunities in

Bangladesh

Professor Saifur Rahman Director

Advanced Research InstituteVirginia Polytechnic Inst & State University, U.S.A.

www.ari.vt.edu

BUETDhaka, Bangladesh

03 March 2009

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman 2

Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2008** Other includes geothermal, solar, wind, combustible renewables & waste

World Electricity Generation by Fuel

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman 3

Transition from Central to Distributed

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman 4

In 2007, wind capacity reached 93,849 MW (WWEA, 2008).• The average annual growth rate in the last 10 years

was close to 30%

In 2007, photovoltaic (PV) capacity reached 9,100 MW (EPIA, 2008).

• Solar PV has a ten-year average annual growth rate of 31%

In 2006, geothermal capacity reached 9,600 MW (BP, 2008).

Worldwide Non-Hydro Renewables

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman 5

Off-shore Wind turbines, Blyth, U.K.

Wind Energy

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman 6

Wind Farm in Hawaii

Source: NREL

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman Source: www.awea.org/projects

U.S. Wind Energy Projects (as of 12/31/2008)

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman

Source: Source: www.bp.com

Worldwide Cumulative Installed Wind Turbine Capacity(End of 2007)

22277

16879

14714

78455875

3088

23327

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Germany USA Spain India China Denmark Rest of theworld

Megawatts (MW)

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman 9

Rooftop PV Test Facility at Virginia Tech, USA

Solar Photovoltaics

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman 10

Solar Power Highlights

Source: EPIA, 2008 and BP, 2007

Current solar PV capacity: 9,100 megawatts (end of 2007)

Some leading countries: - Germany (38.6%)

- Japan (38.4%) - USA (12.9%)- Spain (1.6%)

Above 40% growth rate continued in 2004 and 2005, more than doubling the solar PV capacity in two years.

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman 11

Global Installed Solar Photovoltaics

Source: EPIA, 2008

Cumulative Capacity 1992-20059,100

6,851

5,253

3,847

2,795

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman 12

Solar Photovoltaic Applications

Grid Connected applications Remote area applications Building Integrated PV (BIPV)

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman 13

Grid-connected Photovoltaics, New York City

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman 14

Photovoltaics for Railway Signaling in Tibet

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman 15

BIPV - 4 Times Square New York

Location: Conde Nast Building, NYC

Construction: BIPV Curtain Wall

Completed: July 2001

Peak capacity: 20kW

Type: Custom triple-laminated 40W amorphous Si modules

Environmental: >1million lbs of CO2 over its lifetime

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman 23

Building Integrated PV at a Thai University

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman 23

Biodiversity Monitoring Project in Bangladesh

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman 18

Lehrter Train Station, Germany

Source: http://www.cler.org/predac/article.php3?id_article=511

Number of module: 1,440Total area: 3,311 m2

PV output: 325 kWElectricity generation:

274,000 kWh/yr

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman 19

Hydroelectricit

yLarge and

Small

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman 20

Three Gorges Dam in China

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman 21

26 x 700 = 18,200 MW

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman 22

Small-Hydro

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman

Nuclear Power Plant

23

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman 24

Issues with Nuclear Energy

Long term storage of nuclear spent fuel Concern about nuclear proliferation No greenhouse gas (CO2) emissions Cost: US $5 billion to $7 billion for a

1,500 MW plant

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman 25

Costs of Renewable Power Technologies

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman 26

Cost-Competitiveness of Selected Renewable

Power Technologies

Source: Renewable Energy: RD&D Priorities, OECD/IEA 2006.

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman

Jatropha Plant and Seed

27

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman 28

Assuming there is no intercropping needed, just jatropha plants, testing shows one can obtain an average of 7.5 kilograms of fruit or 3 kilograms of seeds per tree.

Therefore, 6 tons/acre.

At a minimum, several hundred acres of land needed for commercial operation.

How many tons of Jatropha seeds per acre?

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman

How many liters of oil per 1,000 acres?

With an average ratio conversion of 40% from seeds into Jatropha oil, trees can produce 2,400 tons of Jatropha oil per 1,000 acres.

Applying a density rate of 0.9 kg/cm3, it is possible to obtain 2.7 Million liters of oil from 1,000 acres of land per year.

2.646 million liters of biodiesel per 1000 acres

29

(c) Saifur Rahman (c) Saifur Rahman 30

Contact Information

Name: Prof. Saifur RahmanAffiliation: Virginia Tech, USAPhone: (703) 528-5500Email: srahman@vt.eduWeb site: www.ceage.vt.edu

Questions or Comments?