The Future – Clear Blue Skies or Dark Stormy Clouds

Baby Bugmuncher - Olliver, V 2001

What will your next hour look like?

- An Ice Breaker- A exercise using one Future Tool

» -Futures Triangles

- An overview of two other tools» - Causal Layered Analysis » -Maps of Future Success

- Some examples from using these tools- Future up • Clear Blue skies or Dark Stormy clouds?

Ingredients for Today

- Chocolate- Humour- Thinking- Controversy

Ice Breaker- Turn to the person next to you-Tel them something about yourself that is unusual and which most people don’t know-Very briefly I would like three people to volunteer to stand up and tell us something about the other person. -Where are you from – tell us a bit about yourselves and what you would like to get out of today’s section.

Introduction• Strategic Planning Process• Tell me of your experiences• Is it a “Rear View Mirror” exercise?• How do we get the most out of it if the pathway

forward is often difficult to see or visualise.• How do you make your goals become reality and do

you have a sense that they can be realistically achieved.

• What could the future look like?

FUTURES CONE

PotentialPossible

Plausible

Probable

Preferable Potential

Time

Foresight ToolsInput methods: - Environmental Scanning

Delphi Technique

Lit searches

Analytical methods: - Emerging Issues & Trend Analysis

Futures Triangles

Forecasting

Backcasting

Interpretive Methods: - Causal Layered Analysis

Systems Thinking

Prospective Methods: - Scenarios

Visioning

Problem Precluding

Futures Triangle

Weight of the Past

The Push of the Present

Pull of the Future

Futures Triangle• Weight of the Past:• What has happened in the past, how have things changed, what forces

were at work to bring about the change, what barriers have there been to change and what is getting in the way?

• The Push of the present. • What are the issues of the present, who is applying pressure in a

particular area, what trends are pushing us towards probable futures and if there is a change coming where is this change coming from and what forces are at work?

• Pull of the future.• What is pulling the issue into the future, what future can people see and

what are the different competing views of the future based on the history and the present?

Exercise in the Future Triangles• I need 3 groups of 3 volunteers to work in teams.• One from each group will need to report back to the

workshop on their findings.• These teams will work together while each of you

will work on your own to see how you apply the Futures Triangle.

• There are three topics:– Care for the Aged and Disabled– Space Exploration/ Travel– Regulations

Futures Triangle• Weight of the Past:• What has happened in the past, how have things changed, what forces

were at work to bring about the change, what barriers have there been to change and what is getting in the way?

• The Push of the present. • What are the issues of the present, who is applying pressure in a

particular area, what trends are pushing us towards probable futures and if there is a change coming where is this change coming from and what forces are at work?

• Pull of the future.• What is pulling the issue into the future, what future can people see and

what are the different competing views of the future based on the history and the present?

Exercise in the Future Triangles• Report back and discussion around each topic• What conclusions do each of you make?• Discussion on the three topics:

– Care for the Aged and Disabled– Space Exploration/ Travel– Regulations

• Did this method assist you to think about what the future would be like:– Possible– Plausible– Probable– Preferable

Two Other Tools

• Detailed Causal Layered Analysis:• Level One: Litany – Pop level – Visible - what you see

on the nightly news.• Level Two: Systemic – Cultural, Social and Political

Causes.• Level Three: Discourses - Concerned with Structure

and how society works – Denominated by Worldviews.

• Level Four: Level of Myth and Metaphor – These are the deep stories within us, how we make sense of our lives. Myths and Legends.

Two Other Tools

• Problem Precluding:• Possibility of Success Evaluation (POSE)• Relative Freedom• Complexity• Environment

Problem Precluding

Possibility Of Success Evaluation (POSE)Increases

Increases in difficulty Zone Environment

Relative Zone

Freedom Zone

Zone

One Two Three Four Increases

Complexity

Two Examples

http://www.theagedcaregateway.com.au/

KPI Home Care Business

More Information• Ken Wilber - http://www.kenwilber.com• Ray Kurzweil - http://www.singularity.com/• Swinburne Strategic Foresight -

http://www.future.swinburne.edu.au/courses/Master-of-Strategic-Foresight-CMSF640/local

• Sohail Inayatullah - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5MJ_APlLc4

• Causal Layered Analysis - http://scenariosforsustainability.org/recipes/cla.html

• POSE – markss@ueph.com.au

The Future – Clear Blue Skies or Dark Stormy Clouds ?

Thank you for taking part and may your Future be what you create it to be.