The Future

3rd Industrial Revolution

By Jeremy Rifkin

When Generation, Storage and Connectivity for energy is ubiquitous and inexpensive what could entrepreneurs do?

Sustainability:Water & Air ?

Water is Life,

Energy is Quality of Life

Past & Present – Centralization Paradigm

Today’s Problem: Visability, Peak Energy & Demand

Today Problem: Standby Capacity is Inefficient & Expensive

Today’s Problem: Grid Outages (Cyber, Weather, Age)

(addressable today)

The Future Solution is Decentralization

ComputingMainframes with Micro Computers with Mobile Computing

Unleashed by Innovation

CommunicationsLandlines with Cell Phones with Mobile Voice, Video & Data

Unleashed by Innovation and Policy

Utility Decentralization is Central Power Plants working with Distributed Energy Resources

RATIONAL and INEVITABLEBeing Unleashed by Technology & Policy

Solution

1st Order Result :Negative Network Impact “Status Quo Objects”

2nd Order Result:Explosive Growth for DER & IOT

Wildcard:Speed of Innovation & Cost Reductions

“Similarly to the Internet”

Distributed Energy Resources (DER) & Internet of Things (IOT)

The Internet 1975

Processing, Storage and Communications were EXPENSIVE !

The Internet Today – Processing, Storage and Communications are Cheap !

What and Why?

Processing Speed and Communications

2016 Deal Bid $.029 per kWh for Large Scale Solar

The Next Law -

• Moore's Law – Inexpensive ProcessingMain Frame to Micro Computers – Centralized to Distributed (I.T. driven)

• Metcalf's Law – Inexpensive Communications Telecommunication - Ma Belle Breakup – Centralized to Distributed (I.T. driven)

• Sachs Law – Inexpensive Renewables & Storage DER & Internet of Things devices - Centralized to Distributed (E.T. )

“When Sachs, Moore's and Metcalf's Laws Come together with big data analytics

EVERYTHING will change”

When Processing, Storage & Communications are inexpensive It Will Means Explosive Growth for DER & IOT

DER and IOTOpportunities

Standards and Protocols will allow for Sachs, Moore's’ and Metcalf’s Laws to cause accelerated adoption

Of (DER & IoT) LANs and WANs for Energy

2016

Internet of Things

IoT51 Billion Devices

coming Every Building

The GridSmart Meters

+Distributed Energy

ResourcesDER

I.T. E.T.

2020IT, ET, IoT & Data

- Progress- Duke- Nextera- Edison

Electric- GE- ITRON

- Google- Cisco- IBM- Honeywell- GE- Siemens

Opportunities for Entrepreneur Companies

DER & IOT make buildings Intelligent Energy Nodes

DER & IOT enables Big Data, which can optimize the load & grid.

Original Demand Profile Optimal Demand Profile

The DifferencesAre the Savings !

Aggregator

(VTN or VEN)

C&I Residential

C&I Residential

Utility

(VTN)

Distributed Energy Resource (DER)

Aggregation Providers

Distributed Energy Resource (DER)

Management

Dynamic

Prosumer

Emerging Market Structure -Prosumer & Dynamic

Path to Dynamic Energy (Transactive)

The Not Too Distant Future.Intelligent Energynet

(Imagine Big Data Analytics with Machine Learning applied to DER & IOT)

Solar and Storage

Parking Lot Power Plants w/Storage – “uses real estate but does not consume it”

$ COST AVR kw/hr

6am 12pm 6am

1-Peak & Capacity Most expensive energy

Increasing faster than

other energy costs

Time of use pricing

Standby Demand Cost

Pain Driving Change2- Outages & Infrastructure

Stress from Peak Demand

Weather threats

Cyber threats

Smart Grid Integration

Analog vs. Digital

Mechanical vs. Electrical

Capital Constraints

Solution :Decentralization with DER

Result 1st Order:Negative Network Impact

Result 2nd Order:Explosive Growth for DER

Wildcard:Speed of Innovation & Cost Reductions

2016 Deal Bid $.029 per kWh for Large Scale Solar

Storage Solutions by Sector

27

Ramp Control

Curtailment Mitigation

Firming/Shaping

Interconnection Compliance

Grid Services

T&D Deferral

Voltage Support

Power Quality

Grid Reliability Enhancement

Frequency Regulation

Voltage Regulation

Responsive Reserves

Commercial & Industrial

Peak Shaving & Demand Charge

Management

Energy Market Participation

Time Shift and Back Up Power

EV Charging

Renewable

Integration

Transmission

& Distribution

Ancillary Service

Providers

Supplamental

”Killer”Area of Impact Tool ApplicationLiteracy Printing Press Bible

Transportation Automobile Model T

Computing Micro Computer Spreadsheet

Telecommunications Wireless Cell Phone

Information Internet Search Engines

Energy DER & IOT EnergyNet Intelligent Sustainability Distributed

Resources

LEDs for Efficiency

Solar for On Site Generation

Big Data Analytics w/AI

WHAT IS A “KILLER APPLICATION”?

Grid

The EnergyNet is coming

Generate

Transmit

Distribute

Store

Buildings

Efficiency

SMART

Net Zero

Intelligent

Grid Node

think “IPhone”

Transportation

Electric

Bio Fuels

Nat Gas

Fuel Cells

MODERNIZATION