the future is blue

33
The Future is Blue Future Markets in Marine Economy Market Foresights No. 4 / 2014

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The Future is Blue

Future Markets in Marine Economy

Market Foresights No 4 2014

2

Contents

Introduction

Page 3-6

01Future Developments in Marine Economy

Growing Maritime Trade

Growing Usage of Maritime Resources

Growing Maritime Power Production

Growing Maritime Tourism

Page 7-14

02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

Intensifying Competition

Cost of Fuel Environmental Stressors and New Regulations

Page 15-20

03Opportunities and Future Markets

Growing Port Industry

Maritime Technologies and Development of Infrastructures

Sustainable Marine Economy and Shipbuilding Innovations

Maritime Work and Living Spaces

Food from the Sea and Saltwater Desalination

Page 21-29

References

Page 30

Introduction

3

The consumption of natural resources increases

with the growth of the world population

According to current prognoses the population

will keep growing until the end of this century at

least By the year 2100 the number of people

inhabiting the world will have grown from almost

seven billion today to up to eleven billion12 The

hunger and need for energy grows without

restraint In the future more people will use

more energy per capita This is mostly because

the standard of living in developing and emerging

countries will align with that in the western

world By 2040 the global demand for energy

will increase by more than 50 percent compared

to 2010 despite continuously increasing energy

efficiency3

In the new emerging economic

regions the demand for high quality foods and

consumable goods is growing along with the

income

A shortage inaccessibility or finality of resources

could lead to bottlenecks or leaping price

increases with some natural reserves such as

crude oil or high-tech metals A shortage of

drinking water and food will in some regions

increase the danger of conflicts over land and

water distribution Against this background

alternative and innovative resources become

more and more significant and valuable

Corporations and countries alike focus more and

more on access to new thus far economically

unattractive storage methods and power sources

and it is likely that these efforts will intensify in

the medium and long term

The oceans of the world promise to be a nearly

inexhaustible resource Within the next years and

decades management of marine resources will

increase greatly Ecological risks and technical

hurdles still hamper fast and ready access of

maritime resources Extreme conditions in the

deep sea for example pose high demands on

mining methods and technical equipment At the

same time demands grow loud to sustainably

use the oceans as a resource so that we may

benefit from marine reserves in the long term

and can guarantee our survival beyond the 21st

century

4Einfuumlhrung

40 percent of the world population lives in coastal and delta regions and the tendency is growing The consequences of climate changes will pose great challenges particularly to cities

4

5

Without a doubt one of the greatest challenges

facing marine economy is to avoid over-using the

oceans as a source of food resources power

and drinking water (by desalination) or as traffic

work and living space The reduction of fish

stock the warming of oceans by greenhouse gas

emissions as well as the stress placed on marine

ecosystems by pollutants and plastic waste are

only a few examples demonstrating that the

oceans are endangered already At the same

time these dangers offer opportunities for

example in the area of environmental

technologies Within marine economy the area

of sustainable marine economy will become a

multi-billion-market

Making the oceans accessible as a resource

requires a continuous development of the

maritime infrastructure This is a significant

future market for ship machine and plant

manufacturing companies The oceans will also

become more and more significant as transport

area As a result of the ever growing globalization

and changing spare time behaviors the growing

need for the transportation of goods and

passengers offers opportunities for companies

involved in the marine traffic and port industries

Developing coastal regions and a growing

environmentally responsible ocean tourism

promise ldquobluerdquo growth as well Tourism the

largest sector of the maritime industry creates

more than two million jobs in the European Union

and generates an added value of more than 100

billion Euro a year5

In the future the oceans and coastal regions will

be both work and living spaces for a growing

percentage of the world population Hundreds of

millions of people live on land located less than

five meters above sea level and the tendency is

growing Many of these rapidly growing mega-

cities expand in coastal and delta regions There

the ocean is not just an economic factor but

due to global warming a threat as well Rising

sea levels and increasingly extreme weather will

result in higher financial expenditures and

innovative technological methodology in the

segment of flood protection for coastal regions

Introduction

6

Future Markets in Marine Economy

Sustainable Marine Economy Growing Port Industry

Growing Usage of Maritime Resources

Growing Maritime Power Production

Development of Maritime Infrastructures

Maritime Technologies

Innovations in Shipbuilding Maritime Work and Living SpacesMarine Economy Growing Maritime Tourism

7

01Future Developments in Marine Economy

8

Which Trends Influence the Future of Marine Economy

Shortage of Resources Climate ChangesRising Demand for Food

Globalization Growth of Global Population New Economic Powers Urbanization

Shortage of Oil

Energy Innovations Demand for ExperiencesEcological Sustainability AutomationRobotization

9

Global trade will keep growing driven by forces

such as the continuing globalization and the

development of a broad and spend-happy middle

class in the emerging economic regions While

today about 60 percent of the global middle class

live in the developing and emerging countries by

the year 2030 it will be about 80 percent6 In the

same time period world trade will grow an

average of eight percent per year7 Marine trade

will more than double from todaylsquos nine billion

tons to 19 to 24 billion tons in the year 20308

Logistics companies port management ship

builders and their suppliers will benefit from

growing container traffic Following the over

capacity due to the economic crisis the demand

for new ships will grow by the year 20209 In

addition the average transport capacity and size

of container chips will keep growing To save

costs the shipsrsquo fuel efficiency and technical

equipment must improve continuously

Networking and automation are fields that will

become particularly significant

Future Developments in Marine Economy

10Future Developments in Marine Economy

The ocean holds huge resources from protein-

rich fish to crude oil gas and methane hydrate

as well as economically interesting minerals and

metals Biological resources are also useful in

fields such as cosmetics and medication

By the year 2030 food production will have to

increase by 50 percent to cover the growing need

of the world population Protecting the oceans as

one of the most important food sources will be a

particularly significant task because overfishing

of some fish stock is already an issue today

Products from wild catches are being replaced by

aquaculture ie controlled breeding Between

2012 and 2019 the global market for aquaculture

will grow by almost 50 percent to a total of 195

billion10 This development has a particularly

negative impact on developing countries where

peoplersquos livelihood is directly or indirectly

dependent on fishing or where nutritional

resources diminish by continued overfishing

Should fish stock be further decimated in the

future fishing regulations might tighten and

quotas intensify considerably

In the medium and long term increasing

commodity prices will make deep sea mining

attractive In the future ore in form of

manganese modules cobalt crusts and massive

sulfides will be mined as far as 4000 meters

below the surface11 Particularly manganese

modules which are rich in non-ferrous metals

provide high hopes because these metals are

used for the production of of modern high-tech

products such as smart phones solar cells wind

power plants or electric vehicles Sustainable

mining which is to say mining that will not put

too much strain on the ecosystem of the ocean

floor will provide a great challenge If we wish to

safeguard our resources in the long term the

mining of marine mineral resources is of strategic

importance Access to and research of these

resources are regulated by the International

Seabed Authority of the United Nations The rules

for commercial mining have not yet been

defined12

Between 2010 and 2040 the amount of oil mined in the deep sea will increase by more than 150 percent

13

11Future Developments in Marine Economy

Future Developments in Marine Economy 12

Nautilus Minerals from Canada is the first

company planning the mining of massive sulfides

from the seabed14 Germany owns research

licenses for two areas in the Pacific

The future of energy production also lies in the

oceans Globally about one third of natural gas

and oil is mined in the ocean and the tendency

is increasing15 The dependence of the global

economy on fossil fuels has risen to a precarious

level Almost all industrialized countries have to

import oil to cover their needs While the global

use of oil keeps growing quickly experts fear

that the maximum might be reached soon The

mining of new power sources which thus far are

not economically viable and the development of

new mining technologies are becoming more

significant In order to mine oil and gas in the

deep sea swimming platforms for example will

be needed Between 2010 and 2030 their

number will more than double to a total of 600

world wide16 In the future plants that can

operate directly on the seabed at depths of

several thousand meters will likely play an

increased role as well Suitable technologies

could revolutionize the offshore mining of natural

gas and oil and be far more cost effective than

todays platform-based plants

One of the largest fossil energy sources is

methane hydrate Countries investing most on

researching this energy source are Japan and the

USA In 2013 Japanese scientists were able to

mine gas stored one kilometer below sea level

and buried more than 300 meters deep in the

seabed Commercial mining is supposed to

commence by 2018 Offshore methane hydrate

resources could provide Japan with energy for

more than 100 years17 There are still

technological hurdles to overcome In addition

mining harbors geological and ecological risks

In addition to providing a large supply of energy

sources the oceans are also an energy source

itself Energy from wave tide and current power

plants will become a more significant part of the

regenerative energy mix The future market

marine energy is interesting for established plant

manufacturers as well as for innovative start-ups

13

Between 2013 and 2020 the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide

18

Future Developments in Marine Economy

14

The Finnish company Minesto for example

developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite

tethered to the seabed which moves with the

ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine

and a generator19

Offshore wind power will grow to become one of

the largest segments in the market for renewable

energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an

increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030

Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos

wind power will more than double to a total of 14

billion Euro By 2020 global investments in

offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20

Maritime tourism will become more significant as

well Today about 24 million people work in the

field of coastal and ocean tourism of which

150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past

few years this market has experienced an

enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the

number of passengers rose from 12 million to

213 million world wide a total growth of 77

percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers

will increase by an additional three million to a

total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect

passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have

to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding

industry will profit The trend toward experience

travel will increase the demand for specialized

tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)

Within the premium travel segment mobile

islands underwater hotels and submarine travel

could be an interesting growth market The

company Deep Ocean Technology for example

develops technologies for underwater hotels

The hotel room segments can be lowered up to

30 meters below sea level Plans to implement

such a prestigious project are already in

existence25

Future Developments in Marine Economy

15

02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

16

The competition for the economic usage of

maritime space and coastal regions will intensify

For example offshore wind park operators

compete with fisheries for space neighboring

states in the Arctic fiercely compete for

resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone

and cruise ship companies fight for the best

berths and mooring times in the most attractive

port cities To the extent that the oceans become

more and more attractive because new

technologies make the oceans a more efficient

and comprehensive fountain of food resources

and energy countries and corporations will

increase their investments and activities to

develop and access this potential Considering

the continuous population growth and the

increasing shortages of resources in a worst

case scenario unresolved or overlapping

territorial claims could turn violent and provoke

political conflict For example China and other

neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the

Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea

where experts assume large sources of raw

materials

Marine economy particularly ocean trade is

strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world

economy The world wide financial crisis had led

to a significantly reduced demand for shipping

space as well as cancellations and decreased

orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the

container ship building industry particularly in

Asia the German ship building industry had to

restructure and refocus building offshore-

oriented specialty ships instead of container

ships26 The question is how long will it take for

suppliers from emerging countries particularly

from China to enter the market for tailor-made

ships and offer them at lower costs There are

dramatic changes in the balance of the world

economy Developing and emerging countries will

provide an ever larger portion of the workforce

capital technology and trade volume By 2050

experts predict growth beyond average for the

BRIC states Their share of the global social

product will grow significantly

Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges

17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets

27

As soon as ten years from now China might

replace the United States as the largest national

economy in the world Today China is already

the largest container market In addition Chinese

banks could push into the market of ship

financing while German banks reduced their

involvement in this sector following the financial

crises In the future German ship owners

interested in investing might be forced to seek

financing from Chinese banks This could have a

negative impact on the German supplier industry

The competition between individual ports will

also intensify in the future Because container

ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer

central ports will handle an ever growing portion

of the sea trade For example within the next

few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its

container business to the JadeWeser port in

Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that

is independent of the tides and therefore

attractive to giant freighters28 International

relations change too While Hamburg used to

be among the largest container ports in the

world today it ranks only in 16th place By now

six of the top ten ports in the world are in

China29

Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges

to maritime traffic Although we seem to have

skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the

mining maximum by the expansion and

increased economic viability of unconventional oil

mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil

boom likely only defers the problem to a later

time

There are no clear predictions since a decrease

of conventional oil mining will result in higher

investments in research and development of

unconventional oil resources The danger

remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will

increase continuously or at the very least be

volatile In addition modernizing refineries will

result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-

product although the demand will keep rising

For several years now ship owners have tried to

reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with

slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies

18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

19

Sustainability is becoming ever more significant

in all trades The discussion of climate protection

involves marine traffic as well Due to new

environmental regulations the shipping industry

will face major challenges in the coming years

Increased restrictions that limit the emission of

harmful substances will require the use of

expensive fuels or investment in new filtering

and propulsion technologies Among other things

this will lead to additional cost increases for

container freight30 In 2008 the International

Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits

for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease

of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the

current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In

emission control areas an even stricter limit of

10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to

01 percent by 201531

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

20

Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)

32

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

21

03Opportunities and

Future Markets

22

Economic globalization will continue in the

coming years Adjusted for price the value of the

world wide trade of goods will grow from ten

billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars

in 203033 This development will benefit the port

industry too This industry includes all activities

involved in the value creation process of loading

and unloading goods as well as the transfer of

ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and

2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year

to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will

grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By

2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50

percent within the European Union35

Improving site conditions will become ever more

important for the individual ports for example

increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces

or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks

and train The German government focuses

current investments on the expansion of seaward

access roads as well as effective inland

connections36 Globally the need for investments

in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40

billion Euro a year by 203037

Ports will also

benefit from the growth of marine power

production For example ports will play an

increasingly central role in the value chain of

offshore wind energy There are future

opportunities in the fields of montage transfer

and service38 However ports will have to invest

heavily to be able to expand their capacities

accordingly

The significance of automation and safety

technologies will increase due to the growing

transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on

data that create a network of all actors involved

in the port economy promise additional

efficiency To guarantee international

competitiveness the cooperation between

individual ports might become increasingly

relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of

the cooperation between ports in Northern

Germany to improve the port location Germany39

Opportunities and Future Markets

23Opportunities and Future Markets

By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year

40

24

The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the

marine economy It connects ports

transportation methods and companies and

guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and

people The development of the oceans as a

source of food natural resources and energy

increases the need for an expansion of offshore

infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms

at ever greater distances to the shore require

new foundations and basic structures Innovative

technological solutions can significantly

contribute to a more cost efficient operation of

such plants The demand for specialists to

transport and mount materials and components

on site will grow The market for offshore supply

ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in

2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is

an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage

of goods natural resources and energy on

specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring

great logistic advantages for loading and

unloading procedures42 The expansion of an

underwater infrastructure for power cables will

be important to the energy transport particularly

to the transport of renewable energies Within

the next ten years the number of underwater

high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of

30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater

power cable will connect Norway and Germany

helping to level green power fluctuations

Opportunities and challenges in the area of

marine economy boost numerous technological

developments Maritime technologies are a

separate future market within the area of marine

economy They are particularly important to the

fields of ship technology energy mining the

mining of natural resources and the expansion

of maritime infrastructure Additional applications

are in the areas of measurement environment

and security technology Intelligent and

autonomous systems that can operate in great

depths are highly significant44 The Canadian

start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean

Institute for Marine Science and Technology and

the British company Seabed Resources want to

use highly modern robots to mine natural

resources in the deep sea

Opportunities and Future Markets

robust

25Opportunities and Future Markets

Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45

intelligent

sustainable

autonomous

26

In the middle and long term the trend towards

intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence

shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or

trucks scientists all over the world work on

concepts that are supposed to one day make it

possible that ships cross the oceans by

themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center

for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg

are developing related technology The crew can

be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks

after several boats at the same time To make

unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion

technologies and concepts have to be developed

as well because todayrsquos engine technology

requires far too much maintenance46

Technical developments that make use of the

efficiency potential reduce emissions and the

destructive influence on marine ecosystems are

becoming increasingly important considering the

background of climate changes and new

regulations Innovative marine technologies may

help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea

mining maritime energy production and more47

The greatest potential for successful positioning

in the future market of marine economy develops

in places where high technology and sustainable

concepts meet

The shipping sector does not only research

increasingly efficient propulsion methods but

also alternative propulsion methods Liquid

natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant

in the future The American company Tote

Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-

fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-

propelled container ship The ship is supposed to

start operating in 201548 By 2030 international

ocean shipping could potentially be the largest

LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The

industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop

this future market by expanding appropriate

LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel

methanol shore power and hydrogen will most

likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or

niche transport Hybrid solutions however might

prevail in the long term at least New and

powerful methods of energy storage are an

important prerequisite50

Opportunities and Future Markets

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

2

Contents

Introduction

Page 3-6

01Future Developments in Marine Economy

Growing Maritime Trade

Growing Usage of Maritime Resources

Growing Maritime Power Production

Growing Maritime Tourism

Page 7-14

02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

Intensifying Competition

Cost of Fuel Environmental Stressors and New Regulations

Page 15-20

03Opportunities and Future Markets

Growing Port Industry

Maritime Technologies and Development of Infrastructures

Sustainable Marine Economy and Shipbuilding Innovations

Maritime Work and Living Spaces

Food from the Sea and Saltwater Desalination

Page 21-29

References

Page 30

Introduction

3

The consumption of natural resources increases

with the growth of the world population

According to current prognoses the population

will keep growing until the end of this century at

least By the year 2100 the number of people

inhabiting the world will have grown from almost

seven billion today to up to eleven billion12 The

hunger and need for energy grows without

restraint In the future more people will use

more energy per capita This is mostly because

the standard of living in developing and emerging

countries will align with that in the western

world By 2040 the global demand for energy

will increase by more than 50 percent compared

to 2010 despite continuously increasing energy

efficiency3

In the new emerging economic

regions the demand for high quality foods and

consumable goods is growing along with the

income

A shortage inaccessibility or finality of resources

could lead to bottlenecks or leaping price

increases with some natural reserves such as

crude oil or high-tech metals A shortage of

drinking water and food will in some regions

increase the danger of conflicts over land and

water distribution Against this background

alternative and innovative resources become

more and more significant and valuable

Corporations and countries alike focus more and

more on access to new thus far economically

unattractive storage methods and power sources

and it is likely that these efforts will intensify in

the medium and long term

The oceans of the world promise to be a nearly

inexhaustible resource Within the next years and

decades management of marine resources will

increase greatly Ecological risks and technical

hurdles still hamper fast and ready access of

maritime resources Extreme conditions in the

deep sea for example pose high demands on

mining methods and technical equipment At the

same time demands grow loud to sustainably

use the oceans as a resource so that we may

benefit from marine reserves in the long term

and can guarantee our survival beyond the 21st

century

4Einfuumlhrung

40 percent of the world population lives in coastal and delta regions and the tendency is growing The consequences of climate changes will pose great challenges particularly to cities

4

5

Without a doubt one of the greatest challenges

facing marine economy is to avoid over-using the

oceans as a source of food resources power

and drinking water (by desalination) or as traffic

work and living space The reduction of fish

stock the warming of oceans by greenhouse gas

emissions as well as the stress placed on marine

ecosystems by pollutants and plastic waste are

only a few examples demonstrating that the

oceans are endangered already At the same

time these dangers offer opportunities for

example in the area of environmental

technologies Within marine economy the area

of sustainable marine economy will become a

multi-billion-market

Making the oceans accessible as a resource

requires a continuous development of the

maritime infrastructure This is a significant

future market for ship machine and plant

manufacturing companies The oceans will also

become more and more significant as transport

area As a result of the ever growing globalization

and changing spare time behaviors the growing

need for the transportation of goods and

passengers offers opportunities for companies

involved in the marine traffic and port industries

Developing coastal regions and a growing

environmentally responsible ocean tourism

promise ldquobluerdquo growth as well Tourism the

largest sector of the maritime industry creates

more than two million jobs in the European Union

and generates an added value of more than 100

billion Euro a year5

In the future the oceans and coastal regions will

be both work and living spaces for a growing

percentage of the world population Hundreds of

millions of people live on land located less than

five meters above sea level and the tendency is

growing Many of these rapidly growing mega-

cities expand in coastal and delta regions There

the ocean is not just an economic factor but

due to global warming a threat as well Rising

sea levels and increasingly extreme weather will

result in higher financial expenditures and

innovative technological methodology in the

segment of flood protection for coastal regions

Introduction

6

Future Markets in Marine Economy

Sustainable Marine Economy Growing Port Industry

Growing Usage of Maritime Resources

Growing Maritime Power Production

Development of Maritime Infrastructures

Maritime Technologies

Innovations in Shipbuilding Maritime Work and Living SpacesMarine Economy Growing Maritime Tourism

7

01Future Developments in Marine Economy

8

Which Trends Influence the Future of Marine Economy

Shortage of Resources Climate ChangesRising Demand for Food

Globalization Growth of Global Population New Economic Powers Urbanization

Shortage of Oil

Energy Innovations Demand for ExperiencesEcological Sustainability AutomationRobotization

9

Global trade will keep growing driven by forces

such as the continuing globalization and the

development of a broad and spend-happy middle

class in the emerging economic regions While

today about 60 percent of the global middle class

live in the developing and emerging countries by

the year 2030 it will be about 80 percent6 In the

same time period world trade will grow an

average of eight percent per year7 Marine trade

will more than double from todaylsquos nine billion

tons to 19 to 24 billion tons in the year 20308

Logistics companies port management ship

builders and their suppliers will benefit from

growing container traffic Following the over

capacity due to the economic crisis the demand

for new ships will grow by the year 20209 In

addition the average transport capacity and size

of container chips will keep growing To save

costs the shipsrsquo fuel efficiency and technical

equipment must improve continuously

Networking and automation are fields that will

become particularly significant

Future Developments in Marine Economy

10Future Developments in Marine Economy

The ocean holds huge resources from protein-

rich fish to crude oil gas and methane hydrate

as well as economically interesting minerals and

metals Biological resources are also useful in

fields such as cosmetics and medication

By the year 2030 food production will have to

increase by 50 percent to cover the growing need

of the world population Protecting the oceans as

one of the most important food sources will be a

particularly significant task because overfishing

of some fish stock is already an issue today

Products from wild catches are being replaced by

aquaculture ie controlled breeding Between

2012 and 2019 the global market for aquaculture

will grow by almost 50 percent to a total of 195

billion10 This development has a particularly

negative impact on developing countries where

peoplersquos livelihood is directly or indirectly

dependent on fishing or where nutritional

resources diminish by continued overfishing

Should fish stock be further decimated in the

future fishing regulations might tighten and

quotas intensify considerably

In the medium and long term increasing

commodity prices will make deep sea mining

attractive In the future ore in form of

manganese modules cobalt crusts and massive

sulfides will be mined as far as 4000 meters

below the surface11 Particularly manganese

modules which are rich in non-ferrous metals

provide high hopes because these metals are

used for the production of of modern high-tech

products such as smart phones solar cells wind

power plants or electric vehicles Sustainable

mining which is to say mining that will not put

too much strain on the ecosystem of the ocean

floor will provide a great challenge If we wish to

safeguard our resources in the long term the

mining of marine mineral resources is of strategic

importance Access to and research of these

resources are regulated by the International

Seabed Authority of the United Nations The rules

for commercial mining have not yet been

defined12

Between 2010 and 2040 the amount of oil mined in the deep sea will increase by more than 150 percent

13

11Future Developments in Marine Economy

Future Developments in Marine Economy 12

Nautilus Minerals from Canada is the first

company planning the mining of massive sulfides

from the seabed14 Germany owns research

licenses for two areas in the Pacific

The future of energy production also lies in the

oceans Globally about one third of natural gas

and oil is mined in the ocean and the tendency

is increasing15 The dependence of the global

economy on fossil fuels has risen to a precarious

level Almost all industrialized countries have to

import oil to cover their needs While the global

use of oil keeps growing quickly experts fear

that the maximum might be reached soon The

mining of new power sources which thus far are

not economically viable and the development of

new mining technologies are becoming more

significant In order to mine oil and gas in the

deep sea swimming platforms for example will

be needed Between 2010 and 2030 their

number will more than double to a total of 600

world wide16 In the future plants that can

operate directly on the seabed at depths of

several thousand meters will likely play an

increased role as well Suitable technologies

could revolutionize the offshore mining of natural

gas and oil and be far more cost effective than

todays platform-based plants

One of the largest fossil energy sources is

methane hydrate Countries investing most on

researching this energy source are Japan and the

USA In 2013 Japanese scientists were able to

mine gas stored one kilometer below sea level

and buried more than 300 meters deep in the

seabed Commercial mining is supposed to

commence by 2018 Offshore methane hydrate

resources could provide Japan with energy for

more than 100 years17 There are still

technological hurdles to overcome In addition

mining harbors geological and ecological risks

In addition to providing a large supply of energy

sources the oceans are also an energy source

itself Energy from wave tide and current power

plants will become a more significant part of the

regenerative energy mix The future market

marine energy is interesting for established plant

manufacturers as well as for innovative start-ups

13

Between 2013 and 2020 the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide

18

Future Developments in Marine Economy

14

The Finnish company Minesto for example

developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite

tethered to the seabed which moves with the

ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine

and a generator19

Offshore wind power will grow to become one of

the largest segments in the market for renewable

energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an

increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030

Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos

wind power will more than double to a total of 14

billion Euro By 2020 global investments in

offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20

Maritime tourism will become more significant as

well Today about 24 million people work in the

field of coastal and ocean tourism of which

150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past

few years this market has experienced an

enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the

number of passengers rose from 12 million to

213 million world wide a total growth of 77

percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers

will increase by an additional three million to a

total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect

passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have

to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding

industry will profit The trend toward experience

travel will increase the demand for specialized

tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)

Within the premium travel segment mobile

islands underwater hotels and submarine travel

could be an interesting growth market The

company Deep Ocean Technology for example

develops technologies for underwater hotels

The hotel room segments can be lowered up to

30 meters below sea level Plans to implement

such a prestigious project are already in

existence25

Future Developments in Marine Economy

15

02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

16

The competition for the economic usage of

maritime space and coastal regions will intensify

For example offshore wind park operators

compete with fisheries for space neighboring

states in the Arctic fiercely compete for

resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone

and cruise ship companies fight for the best

berths and mooring times in the most attractive

port cities To the extent that the oceans become

more and more attractive because new

technologies make the oceans a more efficient

and comprehensive fountain of food resources

and energy countries and corporations will

increase their investments and activities to

develop and access this potential Considering

the continuous population growth and the

increasing shortages of resources in a worst

case scenario unresolved or overlapping

territorial claims could turn violent and provoke

political conflict For example China and other

neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the

Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea

where experts assume large sources of raw

materials

Marine economy particularly ocean trade is

strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world

economy The world wide financial crisis had led

to a significantly reduced demand for shipping

space as well as cancellations and decreased

orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the

container ship building industry particularly in

Asia the German ship building industry had to

restructure and refocus building offshore-

oriented specialty ships instead of container

ships26 The question is how long will it take for

suppliers from emerging countries particularly

from China to enter the market for tailor-made

ships and offer them at lower costs There are

dramatic changes in the balance of the world

economy Developing and emerging countries will

provide an ever larger portion of the workforce

capital technology and trade volume By 2050

experts predict growth beyond average for the

BRIC states Their share of the global social

product will grow significantly

Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges

17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets

27

As soon as ten years from now China might

replace the United States as the largest national

economy in the world Today China is already

the largest container market In addition Chinese

banks could push into the market of ship

financing while German banks reduced their

involvement in this sector following the financial

crises In the future German ship owners

interested in investing might be forced to seek

financing from Chinese banks This could have a

negative impact on the German supplier industry

The competition between individual ports will

also intensify in the future Because container

ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer

central ports will handle an ever growing portion

of the sea trade For example within the next

few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its

container business to the JadeWeser port in

Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that

is independent of the tides and therefore

attractive to giant freighters28 International

relations change too While Hamburg used to

be among the largest container ports in the

world today it ranks only in 16th place By now

six of the top ten ports in the world are in

China29

Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges

to maritime traffic Although we seem to have

skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the

mining maximum by the expansion and

increased economic viability of unconventional oil

mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil

boom likely only defers the problem to a later

time

There are no clear predictions since a decrease

of conventional oil mining will result in higher

investments in research and development of

unconventional oil resources The danger

remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will

increase continuously or at the very least be

volatile In addition modernizing refineries will

result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-

product although the demand will keep rising

For several years now ship owners have tried to

reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with

slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies

18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

19

Sustainability is becoming ever more significant

in all trades The discussion of climate protection

involves marine traffic as well Due to new

environmental regulations the shipping industry

will face major challenges in the coming years

Increased restrictions that limit the emission of

harmful substances will require the use of

expensive fuels or investment in new filtering

and propulsion technologies Among other things

this will lead to additional cost increases for

container freight30 In 2008 the International

Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits

for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease

of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the

current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In

emission control areas an even stricter limit of

10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to

01 percent by 201531

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

20

Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)

32

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

21

03Opportunities and

Future Markets

22

Economic globalization will continue in the

coming years Adjusted for price the value of the

world wide trade of goods will grow from ten

billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars

in 203033 This development will benefit the port

industry too This industry includes all activities

involved in the value creation process of loading

and unloading goods as well as the transfer of

ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and

2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year

to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will

grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By

2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50

percent within the European Union35

Improving site conditions will become ever more

important for the individual ports for example

increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces

or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks

and train The German government focuses

current investments on the expansion of seaward

access roads as well as effective inland

connections36 Globally the need for investments

in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40

billion Euro a year by 203037

Ports will also

benefit from the growth of marine power

production For example ports will play an

increasingly central role in the value chain of

offshore wind energy There are future

opportunities in the fields of montage transfer

and service38 However ports will have to invest

heavily to be able to expand their capacities

accordingly

The significance of automation and safety

technologies will increase due to the growing

transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on

data that create a network of all actors involved

in the port economy promise additional

efficiency To guarantee international

competitiveness the cooperation between

individual ports might become increasingly

relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of

the cooperation between ports in Northern

Germany to improve the port location Germany39

Opportunities and Future Markets

23Opportunities and Future Markets

By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year

40

24

The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the

marine economy It connects ports

transportation methods and companies and

guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and

people The development of the oceans as a

source of food natural resources and energy

increases the need for an expansion of offshore

infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms

at ever greater distances to the shore require

new foundations and basic structures Innovative

technological solutions can significantly

contribute to a more cost efficient operation of

such plants The demand for specialists to

transport and mount materials and components

on site will grow The market for offshore supply

ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in

2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is

an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage

of goods natural resources and energy on

specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring

great logistic advantages for loading and

unloading procedures42 The expansion of an

underwater infrastructure for power cables will

be important to the energy transport particularly

to the transport of renewable energies Within

the next ten years the number of underwater

high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of

30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater

power cable will connect Norway and Germany

helping to level green power fluctuations

Opportunities and challenges in the area of

marine economy boost numerous technological

developments Maritime technologies are a

separate future market within the area of marine

economy They are particularly important to the

fields of ship technology energy mining the

mining of natural resources and the expansion

of maritime infrastructure Additional applications

are in the areas of measurement environment

and security technology Intelligent and

autonomous systems that can operate in great

depths are highly significant44 The Canadian

start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean

Institute for Marine Science and Technology and

the British company Seabed Resources want to

use highly modern robots to mine natural

resources in the deep sea

Opportunities and Future Markets

robust

25Opportunities and Future Markets

Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45

intelligent

sustainable

autonomous

26

In the middle and long term the trend towards

intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence

shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or

trucks scientists all over the world work on

concepts that are supposed to one day make it

possible that ships cross the oceans by

themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center

for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg

are developing related technology The crew can

be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks

after several boats at the same time To make

unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion

technologies and concepts have to be developed

as well because todayrsquos engine technology

requires far too much maintenance46

Technical developments that make use of the

efficiency potential reduce emissions and the

destructive influence on marine ecosystems are

becoming increasingly important considering the

background of climate changes and new

regulations Innovative marine technologies may

help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea

mining maritime energy production and more47

The greatest potential for successful positioning

in the future market of marine economy develops

in places where high technology and sustainable

concepts meet

The shipping sector does not only research

increasingly efficient propulsion methods but

also alternative propulsion methods Liquid

natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant

in the future The American company Tote

Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-

fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-

propelled container ship The ship is supposed to

start operating in 201548 By 2030 international

ocean shipping could potentially be the largest

LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The

industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop

this future market by expanding appropriate

LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel

methanol shore power and hydrogen will most

likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or

niche transport Hybrid solutions however might

prevail in the long term at least New and

powerful methods of energy storage are an

important prerequisite50

Opportunities and Future Markets

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

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Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

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ISSN 2363-6734

Introduction

3

The consumption of natural resources increases

with the growth of the world population

According to current prognoses the population

will keep growing until the end of this century at

least By the year 2100 the number of people

inhabiting the world will have grown from almost

seven billion today to up to eleven billion12 The

hunger and need for energy grows without

restraint In the future more people will use

more energy per capita This is mostly because

the standard of living in developing and emerging

countries will align with that in the western

world By 2040 the global demand for energy

will increase by more than 50 percent compared

to 2010 despite continuously increasing energy

efficiency3

In the new emerging economic

regions the demand for high quality foods and

consumable goods is growing along with the

income

A shortage inaccessibility or finality of resources

could lead to bottlenecks or leaping price

increases with some natural reserves such as

crude oil or high-tech metals A shortage of

drinking water and food will in some regions

increase the danger of conflicts over land and

water distribution Against this background

alternative and innovative resources become

more and more significant and valuable

Corporations and countries alike focus more and

more on access to new thus far economically

unattractive storage methods and power sources

and it is likely that these efforts will intensify in

the medium and long term

The oceans of the world promise to be a nearly

inexhaustible resource Within the next years and

decades management of marine resources will

increase greatly Ecological risks and technical

hurdles still hamper fast and ready access of

maritime resources Extreme conditions in the

deep sea for example pose high demands on

mining methods and technical equipment At the

same time demands grow loud to sustainably

use the oceans as a resource so that we may

benefit from marine reserves in the long term

and can guarantee our survival beyond the 21st

century

4Einfuumlhrung

40 percent of the world population lives in coastal and delta regions and the tendency is growing The consequences of climate changes will pose great challenges particularly to cities

4

5

Without a doubt one of the greatest challenges

facing marine economy is to avoid over-using the

oceans as a source of food resources power

and drinking water (by desalination) or as traffic

work and living space The reduction of fish

stock the warming of oceans by greenhouse gas

emissions as well as the stress placed on marine

ecosystems by pollutants and plastic waste are

only a few examples demonstrating that the

oceans are endangered already At the same

time these dangers offer opportunities for

example in the area of environmental

technologies Within marine economy the area

of sustainable marine economy will become a

multi-billion-market

Making the oceans accessible as a resource

requires a continuous development of the

maritime infrastructure This is a significant

future market for ship machine and plant

manufacturing companies The oceans will also

become more and more significant as transport

area As a result of the ever growing globalization

and changing spare time behaviors the growing

need for the transportation of goods and

passengers offers opportunities for companies

involved in the marine traffic and port industries

Developing coastal regions and a growing

environmentally responsible ocean tourism

promise ldquobluerdquo growth as well Tourism the

largest sector of the maritime industry creates

more than two million jobs in the European Union

and generates an added value of more than 100

billion Euro a year5

In the future the oceans and coastal regions will

be both work and living spaces for a growing

percentage of the world population Hundreds of

millions of people live on land located less than

five meters above sea level and the tendency is

growing Many of these rapidly growing mega-

cities expand in coastal and delta regions There

the ocean is not just an economic factor but

due to global warming a threat as well Rising

sea levels and increasingly extreme weather will

result in higher financial expenditures and

innovative technological methodology in the

segment of flood protection for coastal regions

Introduction

6

Future Markets in Marine Economy

Sustainable Marine Economy Growing Port Industry

Growing Usage of Maritime Resources

Growing Maritime Power Production

Development of Maritime Infrastructures

Maritime Technologies

Innovations in Shipbuilding Maritime Work and Living SpacesMarine Economy Growing Maritime Tourism

7

01Future Developments in Marine Economy

8

Which Trends Influence the Future of Marine Economy

Shortage of Resources Climate ChangesRising Demand for Food

Globalization Growth of Global Population New Economic Powers Urbanization

Shortage of Oil

Energy Innovations Demand for ExperiencesEcological Sustainability AutomationRobotization

9

Global trade will keep growing driven by forces

such as the continuing globalization and the

development of a broad and spend-happy middle

class in the emerging economic regions While

today about 60 percent of the global middle class

live in the developing and emerging countries by

the year 2030 it will be about 80 percent6 In the

same time period world trade will grow an

average of eight percent per year7 Marine trade

will more than double from todaylsquos nine billion

tons to 19 to 24 billion tons in the year 20308

Logistics companies port management ship

builders and their suppliers will benefit from

growing container traffic Following the over

capacity due to the economic crisis the demand

for new ships will grow by the year 20209 In

addition the average transport capacity and size

of container chips will keep growing To save

costs the shipsrsquo fuel efficiency and technical

equipment must improve continuously

Networking and automation are fields that will

become particularly significant

Future Developments in Marine Economy

10Future Developments in Marine Economy

The ocean holds huge resources from protein-

rich fish to crude oil gas and methane hydrate

as well as economically interesting minerals and

metals Biological resources are also useful in

fields such as cosmetics and medication

By the year 2030 food production will have to

increase by 50 percent to cover the growing need

of the world population Protecting the oceans as

one of the most important food sources will be a

particularly significant task because overfishing

of some fish stock is already an issue today

Products from wild catches are being replaced by

aquaculture ie controlled breeding Between

2012 and 2019 the global market for aquaculture

will grow by almost 50 percent to a total of 195

billion10 This development has a particularly

negative impact on developing countries where

peoplersquos livelihood is directly or indirectly

dependent on fishing or where nutritional

resources diminish by continued overfishing

Should fish stock be further decimated in the

future fishing regulations might tighten and

quotas intensify considerably

In the medium and long term increasing

commodity prices will make deep sea mining

attractive In the future ore in form of

manganese modules cobalt crusts and massive

sulfides will be mined as far as 4000 meters

below the surface11 Particularly manganese

modules which are rich in non-ferrous metals

provide high hopes because these metals are

used for the production of of modern high-tech

products such as smart phones solar cells wind

power plants or electric vehicles Sustainable

mining which is to say mining that will not put

too much strain on the ecosystem of the ocean

floor will provide a great challenge If we wish to

safeguard our resources in the long term the

mining of marine mineral resources is of strategic

importance Access to and research of these

resources are regulated by the International

Seabed Authority of the United Nations The rules

for commercial mining have not yet been

defined12

Between 2010 and 2040 the amount of oil mined in the deep sea will increase by more than 150 percent

13

11Future Developments in Marine Economy

Future Developments in Marine Economy 12

Nautilus Minerals from Canada is the first

company planning the mining of massive sulfides

from the seabed14 Germany owns research

licenses for two areas in the Pacific

The future of energy production also lies in the

oceans Globally about one third of natural gas

and oil is mined in the ocean and the tendency

is increasing15 The dependence of the global

economy on fossil fuels has risen to a precarious

level Almost all industrialized countries have to

import oil to cover their needs While the global

use of oil keeps growing quickly experts fear

that the maximum might be reached soon The

mining of new power sources which thus far are

not economically viable and the development of

new mining technologies are becoming more

significant In order to mine oil and gas in the

deep sea swimming platforms for example will

be needed Between 2010 and 2030 their

number will more than double to a total of 600

world wide16 In the future plants that can

operate directly on the seabed at depths of

several thousand meters will likely play an

increased role as well Suitable technologies

could revolutionize the offshore mining of natural

gas and oil and be far more cost effective than

todays platform-based plants

One of the largest fossil energy sources is

methane hydrate Countries investing most on

researching this energy source are Japan and the

USA In 2013 Japanese scientists were able to

mine gas stored one kilometer below sea level

and buried more than 300 meters deep in the

seabed Commercial mining is supposed to

commence by 2018 Offshore methane hydrate

resources could provide Japan with energy for

more than 100 years17 There are still

technological hurdles to overcome In addition

mining harbors geological and ecological risks

In addition to providing a large supply of energy

sources the oceans are also an energy source

itself Energy from wave tide and current power

plants will become a more significant part of the

regenerative energy mix The future market

marine energy is interesting for established plant

manufacturers as well as for innovative start-ups

13

Between 2013 and 2020 the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide

18

Future Developments in Marine Economy

14

The Finnish company Minesto for example

developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite

tethered to the seabed which moves with the

ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine

and a generator19

Offshore wind power will grow to become one of

the largest segments in the market for renewable

energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an

increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030

Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos

wind power will more than double to a total of 14

billion Euro By 2020 global investments in

offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20

Maritime tourism will become more significant as

well Today about 24 million people work in the

field of coastal and ocean tourism of which

150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past

few years this market has experienced an

enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the

number of passengers rose from 12 million to

213 million world wide a total growth of 77

percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers

will increase by an additional three million to a

total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect

passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have

to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding

industry will profit The trend toward experience

travel will increase the demand for specialized

tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)

Within the premium travel segment mobile

islands underwater hotels and submarine travel

could be an interesting growth market The

company Deep Ocean Technology for example

develops technologies for underwater hotels

The hotel room segments can be lowered up to

30 meters below sea level Plans to implement

such a prestigious project are already in

existence25

Future Developments in Marine Economy

15

02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

16

The competition for the economic usage of

maritime space and coastal regions will intensify

For example offshore wind park operators

compete with fisheries for space neighboring

states in the Arctic fiercely compete for

resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone

and cruise ship companies fight for the best

berths and mooring times in the most attractive

port cities To the extent that the oceans become

more and more attractive because new

technologies make the oceans a more efficient

and comprehensive fountain of food resources

and energy countries and corporations will

increase their investments and activities to

develop and access this potential Considering

the continuous population growth and the

increasing shortages of resources in a worst

case scenario unresolved or overlapping

territorial claims could turn violent and provoke

political conflict For example China and other

neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the

Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea

where experts assume large sources of raw

materials

Marine economy particularly ocean trade is

strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world

economy The world wide financial crisis had led

to a significantly reduced demand for shipping

space as well as cancellations and decreased

orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the

container ship building industry particularly in

Asia the German ship building industry had to

restructure and refocus building offshore-

oriented specialty ships instead of container

ships26 The question is how long will it take for

suppliers from emerging countries particularly

from China to enter the market for tailor-made

ships and offer them at lower costs There are

dramatic changes in the balance of the world

economy Developing and emerging countries will

provide an ever larger portion of the workforce

capital technology and trade volume By 2050

experts predict growth beyond average for the

BRIC states Their share of the global social

product will grow significantly

Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges

17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets

27

As soon as ten years from now China might

replace the United States as the largest national

economy in the world Today China is already

the largest container market In addition Chinese

banks could push into the market of ship

financing while German banks reduced their

involvement in this sector following the financial

crises In the future German ship owners

interested in investing might be forced to seek

financing from Chinese banks This could have a

negative impact on the German supplier industry

The competition between individual ports will

also intensify in the future Because container

ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer

central ports will handle an ever growing portion

of the sea trade For example within the next

few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its

container business to the JadeWeser port in

Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that

is independent of the tides and therefore

attractive to giant freighters28 International

relations change too While Hamburg used to

be among the largest container ports in the

world today it ranks only in 16th place By now

six of the top ten ports in the world are in

China29

Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges

to maritime traffic Although we seem to have

skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the

mining maximum by the expansion and

increased economic viability of unconventional oil

mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil

boom likely only defers the problem to a later

time

There are no clear predictions since a decrease

of conventional oil mining will result in higher

investments in research and development of

unconventional oil resources The danger

remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will

increase continuously or at the very least be

volatile In addition modernizing refineries will

result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-

product although the demand will keep rising

For several years now ship owners have tried to

reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with

slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies

18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

19

Sustainability is becoming ever more significant

in all trades The discussion of climate protection

involves marine traffic as well Due to new

environmental regulations the shipping industry

will face major challenges in the coming years

Increased restrictions that limit the emission of

harmful substances will require the use of

expensive fuels or investment in new filtering

and propulsion technologies Among other things

this will lead to additional cost increases for

container freight30 In 2008 the International

Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits

for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease

of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the

current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In

emission control areas an even stricter limit of

10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to

01 percent by 201531

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

20

Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)

32

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

21

03Opportunities and

Future Markets

22

Economic globalization will continue in the

coming years Adjusted for price the value of the

world wide trade of goods will grow from ten

billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars

in 203033 This development will benefit the port

industry too This industry includes all activities

involved in the value creation process of loading

and unloading goods as well as the transfer of

ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and

2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year

to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will

grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By

2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50

percent within the European Union35

Improving site conditions will become ever more

important for the individual ports for example

increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces

or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks

and train The German government focuses

current investments on the expansion of seaward

access roads as well as effective inland

connections36 Globally the need for investments

in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40

billion Euro a year by 203037

Ports will also

benefit from the growth of marine power

production For example ports will play an

increasingly central role in the value chain of

offshore wind energy There are future

opportunities in the fields of montage transfer

and service38 However ports will have to invest

heavily to be able to expand their capacities

accordingly

The significance of automation and safety

technologies will increase due to the growing

transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on

data that create a network of all actors involved

in the port economy promise additional

efficiency To guarantee international

competitiveness the cooperation between

individual ports might become increasingly

relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of

the cooperation between ports in Northern

Germany to improve the port location Germany39

Opportunities and Future Markets

23Opportunities and Future Markets

By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year

40

24

The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the

marine economy It connects ports

transportation methods and companies and

guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and

people The development of the oceans as a

source of food natural resources and energy

increases the need for an expansion of offshore

infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms

at ever greater distances to the shore require

new foundations and basic structures Innovative

technological solutions can significantly

contribute to a more cost efficient operation of

such plants The demand for specialists to

transport and mount materials and components

on site will grow The market for offshore supply

ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in

2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is

an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage

of goods natural resources and energy on

specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring

great logistic advantages for loading and

unloading procedures42 The expansion of an

underwater infrastructure for power cables will

be important to the energy transport particularly

to the transport of renewable energies Within

the next ten years the number of underwater

high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of

30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater

power cable will connect Norway and Germany

helping to level green power fluctuations

Opportunities and challenges in the area of

marine economy boost numerous technological

developments Maritime technologies are a

separate future market within the area of marine

economy They are particularly important to the

fields of ship technology energy mining the

mining of natural resources and the expansion

of maritime infrastructure Additional applications

are in the areas of measurement environment

and security technology Intelligent and

autonomous systems that can operate in great

depths are highly significant44 The Canadian

start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean

Institute for Marine Science and Technology and

the British company Seabed Resources want to

use highly modern robots to mine natural

resources in the deep sea

Opportunities and Future Markets

robust

25Opportunities and Future Markets

Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45

intelligent

sustainable

autonomous

26

In the middle and long term the trend towards

intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence

shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or

trucks scientists all over the world work on

concepts that are supposed to one day make it

possible that ships cross the oceans by

themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center

for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg

are developing related technology The crew can

be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks

after several boats at the same time To make

unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion

technologies and concepts have to be developed

as well because todayrsquos engine technology

requires far too much maintenance46

Technical developments that make use of the

efficiency potential reduce emissions and the

destructive influence on marine ecosystems are

becoming increasingly important considering the

background of climate changes and new

regulations Innovative marine technologies may

help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea

mining maritime energy production and more47

The greatest potential for successful positioning

in the future market of marine economy develops

in places where high technology and sustainable

concepts meet

The shipping sector does not only research

increasingly efficient propulsion methods but

also alternative propulsion methods Liquid

natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant

in the future The American company Tote

Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-

fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-

propelled container ship The ship is supposed to

start operating in 201548 By 2030 international

ocean shipping could potentially be the largest

LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The

industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop

this future market by expanding appropriate

LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel

methanol shore power and hydrogen will most

likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or

niche transport Hybrid solutions however might

prevail in the long term at least New and

powerful methods of energy storage are an

important prerequisite50

Opportunities and Future Markets

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

4Einfuumlhrung

40 percent of the world population lives in coastal and delta regions and the tendency is growing The consequences of climate changes will pose great challenges particularly to cities

4

5

Without a doubt one of the greatest challenges

facing marine economy is to avoid over-using the

oceans as a source of food resources power

and drinking water (by desalination) or as traffic

work and living space The reduction of fish

stock the warming of oceans by greenhouse gas

emissions as well as the stress placed on marine

ecosystems by pollutants and plastic waste are

only a few examples demonstrating that the

oceans are endangered already At the same

time these dangers offer opportunities for

example in the area of environmental

technologies Within marine economy the area

of sustainable marine economy will become a

multi-billion-market

Making the oceans accessible as a resource

requires a continuous development of the

maritime infrastructure This is a significant

future market for ship machine and plant

manufacturing companies The oceans will also

become more and more significant as transport

area As a result of the ever growing globalization

and changing spare time behaviors the growing

need for the transportation of goods and

passengers offers opportunities for companies

involved in the marine traffic and port industries

Developing coastal regions and a growing

environmentally responsible ocean tourism

promise ldquobluerdquo growth as well Tourism the

largest sector of the maritime industry creates

more than two million jobs in the European Union

and generates an added value of more than 100

billion Euro a year5

In the future the oceans and coastal regions will

be both work and living spaces for a growing

percentage of the world population Hundreds of

millions of people live on land located less than

five meters above sea level and the tendency is

growing Many of these rapidly growing mega-

cities expand in coastal and delta regions There

the ocean is not just an economic factor but

due to global warming a threat as well Rising

sea levels and increasingly extreme weather will

result in higher financial expenditures and

innovative technological methodology in the

segment of flood protection for coastal regions

Introduction

6

Future Markets in Marine Economy

Sustainable Marine Economy Growing Port Industry

Growing Usage of Maritime Resources

Growing Maritime Power Production

Development of Maritime Infrastructures

Maritime Technologies

Innovations in Shipbuilding Maritime Work and Living SpacesMarine Economy Growing Maritime Tourism

7

01Future Developments in Marine Economy

8

Which Trends Influence the Future of Marine Economy

Shortage of Resources Climate ChangesRising Demand for Food

Globalization Growth of Global Population New Economic Powers Urbanization

Shortage of Oil

Energy Innovations Demand for ExperiencesEcological Sustainability AutomationRobotization

9

Global trade will keep growing driven by forces

such as the continuing globalization and the

development of a broad and spend-happy middle

class in the emerging economic regions While

today about 60 percent of the global middle class

live in the developing and emerging countries by

the year 2030 it will be about 80 percent6 In the

same time period world trade will grow an

average of eight percent per year7 Marine trade

will more than double from todaylsquos nine billion

tons to 19 to 24 billion tons in the year 20308

Logistics companies port management ship

builders and their suppliers will benefit from

growing container traffic Following the over

capacity due to the economic crisis the demand

for new ships will grow by the year 20209 In

addition the average transport capacity and size

of container chips will keep growing To save

costs the shipsrsquo fuel efficiency and technical

equipment must improve continuously

Networking and automation are fields that will

become particularly significant

Future Developments in Marine Economy

10Future Developments in Marine Economy

The ocean holds huge resources from protein-

rich fish to crude oil gas and methane hydrate

as well as economically interesting minerals and

metals Biological resources are also useful in

fields such as cosmetics and medication

By the year 2030 food production will have to

increase by 50 percent to cover the growing need

of the world population Protecting the oceans as

one of the most important food sources will be a

particularly significant task because overfishing

of some fish stock is already an issue today

Products from wild catches are being replaced by

aquaculture ie controlled breeding Between

2012 and 2019 the global market for aquaculture

will grow by almost 50 percent to a total of 195

billion10 This development has a particularly

negative impact on developing countries where

peoplersquos livelihood is directly or indirectly

dependent on fishing or where nutritional

resources diminish by continued overfishing

Should fish stock be further decimated in the

future fishing regulations might tighten and

quotas intensify considerably

In the medium and long term increasing

commodity prices will make deep sea mining

attractive In the future ore in form of

manganese modules cobalt crusts and massive

sulfides will be mined as far as 4000 meters

below the surface11 Particularly manganese

modules which are rich in non-ferrous metals

provide high hopes because these metals are

used for the production of of modern high-tech

products such as smart phones solar cells wind

power plants or electric vehicles Sustainable

mining which is to say mining that will not put

too much strain on the ecosystem of the ocean

floor will provide a great challenge If we wish to

safeguard our resources in the long term the

mining of marine mineral resources is of strategic

importance Access to and research of these

resources are regulated by the International

Seabed Authority of the United Nations The rules

for commercial mining have not yet been

defined12

Between 2010 and 2040 the amount of oil mined in the deep sea will increase by more than 150 percent

13

11Future Developments in Marine Economy

Future Developments in Marine Economy 12

Nautilus Minerals from Canada is the first

company planning the mining of massive sulfides

from the seabed14 Germany owns research

licenses for two areas in the Pacific

The future of energy production also lies in the

oceans Globally about one third of natural gas

and oil is mined in the ocean and the tendency

is increasing15 The dependence of the global

economy on fossil fuels has risen to a precarious

level Almost all industrialized countries have to

import oil to cover their needs While the global

use of oil keeps growing quickly experts fear

that the maximum might be reached soon The

mining of new power sources which thus far are

not economically viable and the development of

new mining technologies are becoming more

significant In order to mine oil and gas in the

deep sea swimming platforms for example will

be needed Between 2010 and 2030 their

number will more than double to a total of 600

world wide16 In the future plants that can

operate directly on the seabed at depths of

several thousand meters will likely play an

increased role as well Suitable technologies

could revolutionize the offshore mining of natural

gas and oil and be far more cost effective than

todays platform-based plants

One of the largest fossil energy sources is

methane hydrate Countries investing most on

researching this energy source are Japan and the

USA In 2013 Japanese scientists were able to

mine gas stored one kilometer below sea level

and buried more than 300 meters deep in the

seabed Commercial mining is supposed to

commence by 2018 Offshore methane hydrate

resources could provide Japan with energy for

more than 100 years17 There are still

technological hurdles to overcome In addition

mining harbors geological and ecological risks

In addition to providing a large supply of energy

sources the oceans are also an energy source

itself Energy from wave tide and current power

plants will become a more significant part of the

regenerative energy mix The future market

marine energy is interesting for established plant

manufacturers as well as for innovative start-ups

13

Between 2013 and 2020 the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide

18

Future Developments in Marine Economy

14

The Finnish company Minesto for example

developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite

tethered to the seabed which moves with the

ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine

and a generator19

Offshore wind power will grow to become one of

the largest segments in the market for renewable

energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an

increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030

Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos

wind power will more than double to a total of 14

billion Euro By 2020 global investments in

offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20

Maritime tourism will become more significant as

well Today about 24 million people work in the

field of coastal and ocean tourism of which

150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past

few years this market has experienced an

enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the

number of passengers rose from 12 million to

213 million world wide a total growth of 77

percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers

will increase by an additional three million to a

total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect

passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have

to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding

industry will profit The trend toward experience

travel will increase the demand for specialized

tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)

Within the premium travel segment mobile

islands underwater hotels and submarine travel

could be an interesting growth market The

company Deep Ocean Technology for example

develops technologies for underwater hotels

The hotel room segments can be lowered up to

30 meters below sea level Plans to implement

such a prestigious project are already in

existence25

Future Developments in Marine Economy

15

02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

16

The competition for the economic usage of

maritime space and coastal regions will intensify

For example offshore wind park operators

compete with fisheries for space neighboring

states in the Arctic fiercely compete for

resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone

and cruise ship companies fight for the best

berths and mooring times in the most attractive

port cities To the extent that the oceans become

more and more attractive because new

technologies make the oceans a more efficient

and comprehensive fountain of food resources

and energy countries and corporations will

increase their investments and activities to

develop and access this potential Considering

the continuous population growth and the

increasing shortages of resources in a worst

case scenario unresolved or overlapping

territorial claims could turn violent and provoke

political conflict For example China and other

neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the

Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea

where experts assume large sources of raw

materials

Marine economy particularly ocean trade is

strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world

economy The world wide financial crisis had led

to a significantly reduced demand for shipping

space as well as cancellations and decreased

orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the

container ship building industry particularly in

Asia the German ship building industry had to

restructure and refocus building offshore-

oriented specialty ships instead of container

ships26 The question is how long will it take for

suppliers from emerging countries particularly

from China to enter the market for tailor-made

ships and offer them at lower costs There are

dramatic changes in the balance of the world

economy Developing and emerging countries will

provide an ever larger portion of the workforce

capital technology and trade volume By 2050

experts predict growth beyond average for the

BRIC states Their share of the global social

product will grow significantly

Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges

17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets

27

As soon as ten years from now China might

replace the United States as the largest national

economy in the world Today China is already

the largest container market In addition Chinese

banks could push into the market of ship

financing while German banks reduced their

involvement in this sector following the financial

crises In the future German ship owners

interested in investing might be forced to seek

financing from Chinese banks This could have a

negative impact on the German supplier industry

The competition between individual ports will

also intensify in the future Because container

ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer

central ports will handle an ever growing portion

of the sea trade For example within the next

few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its

container business to the JadeWeser port in

Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that

is independent of the tides and therefore

attractive to giant freighters28 International

relations change too While Hamburg used to

be among the largest container ports in the

world today it ranks only in 16th place By now

six of the top ten ports in the world are in

China29

Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges

to maritime traffic Although we seem to have

skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the

mining maximum by the expansion and

increased economic viability of unconventional oil

mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil

boom likely only defers the problem to a later

time

There are no clear predictions since a decrease

of conventional oil mining will result in higher

investments in research and development of

unconventional oil resources The danger

remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will

increase continuously or at the very least be

volatile In addition modernizing refineries will

result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-

product although the demand will keep rising

For several years now ship owners have tried to

reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with

slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies

18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

19

Sustainability is becoming ever more significant

in all trades The discussion of climate protection

involves marine traffic as well Due to new

environmental regulations the shipping industry

will face major challenges in the coming years

Increased restrictions that limit the emission of

harmful substances will require the use of

expensive fuels or investment in new filtering

and propulsion technologies Among other things

this will lead to additional cost increases for

container freight30 In 2008 the International

Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits

for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease

of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the

current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In

emission control areas an even stricter limit of

10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to

01 percent by 201531

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

20

Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)

32

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

21

03Opportunities and

Future Markets

22

Economic globalization will continue in the

coming years Adjusted for price the value of the

world wide trade of goods will grow from ten

billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars

in 203033 This development will benefit the port

industry too This industry includes all activities

involved in the value creation process of loading

and unloading goods as well as the transfer of

ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and

2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year

to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will

grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By

2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50

percent within the European Union35

Improving site conditions will become ever more

important for the individual ports for example

increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces

or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks

and train The German government focuses

current investments on the expansion of seaward

access roads as well as effective inland

connections36 Globally the need for investments

in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40

billion Euro a year by 203037

Ports will also

benefit from the growth of marine power

production For example ports will play an

increasingly central role in the value chain of

offshore wind energy There are future

opportunities in the fields of montage transfer

and service38 However ports will have to invest

heavily to be able to expand their capacities

accordingly

The significance of automation and safety

technologies will increase due to the growing

transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on

data that create a network of all actors involved

in the port economy promise additional

efficiency To guarantee international

competitiveness the cooperation between

individual ports might become increasingly

relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of

the cooperation between ports in Northern

Germany to improve the port location Germany39

Opportunities and Future Markets

23Opportunities and Future Markets

By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year

40

24

The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the

marine economy It connects ports

transportation methods and companies and

guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and

people The development of the oceans as a

source of food natural resources and energy

increases the need for an expansion of offshore

infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms

at ever greater distances to the shore require

new foundations and basic structures Innovative

technological solutions can significantly

contribute to a more cost efficient operation of

such plants The demand for specialists to

transport and mount materials and components

on site will grow The market for offshore supply

ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in

2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is

an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage

of goods natural resources and energy on

specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring

great logistic advantages for loading and

unloading procedures42 The expansion of an

underwater infrastructure for power cables will

be important to the energy transport particularly

to the transport of renewable energies Within

the next ten years the number of underwater

high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of

30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater

power cable will connect Norway and Germany

helping to level green power fluctuations

Opportunities and challenges in the area of

marine economy boost numerous technological

developments Maritime technologies are a

separate future market within the area of marine

economy They are particularly important to the

fields of ship technology energy mining the

mining of natural resources and the expansion

of maritime infrastructure Additional applications

are in the areas of measurement environment

and security technology Intelligent and

autonomous systems that can operate in great

depths are highly significant44 The Canadian

start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean

Institute for Marine Science and Technology and

the British company Seabed Resources want to

use highly modern robots to mine natural

resources in the deep sea

Opportunities and Future Markets

robust

25Opportunities and Future Markets

Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45

intelligent

sustainable

autonomous

26

In the middle and long term the trend towards

intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence

shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or

trucks scientists all over the world work on

concepts that are supposed to one day make it

possible that ships cross the oceans by

themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center

for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg

are developing related technology The crew can

be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks

after several boats at the same time To make

unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion

technologies and concepts have to be developed

as well because todayrsquos engine technology

requires far too much maintenance46

Technical developments that make use of the

efficiency potential reduce emissions and the

destructive influence on marine ecosystems are

becoming increasingly important considering the

background of climate changes and new

regulations Innovative marine technologies may

help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea

mining maritime energy production and more47

The greatest potential for successful positioning

in the future market of marine economy develops

in places where high technology and sustainable

concepts meet

The shipping sector does not only research

increasingly efficient propulsion methods but

also alternative propulsion methods Liquid

natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant

in the future The American company Tote

Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-

fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-

propelled container ship The ship is supposed to

start operating in 201548 By 2030 international

ocean shipping could potentially be the largest

LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The

industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop

this future market by expanding appropriate

LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel

methanol shore power and hydrogen will most

likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or

niche transport Hybrid solutions however might

prevail in the long term at least New and

powerful methods of energy storage are an

important prerequisite50

Opportunities and Future Markets

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

5

Without a doubt one of the greatest challenges

facing marine economy is to avoid over-using the

oceans as a source of food resources power

and drinking water (by desalination) or as traffic

work and living space The reduction of fish

stock the warming of oceans by greenhouse gas

emissions as well as the stress placed on marine

ecosystems by pollutants and plastic waste are

only a few examples demonstrating that the

oceans are endangered already At the same

time these dangers offer opportunities for

example in the area of environmental

technologies Within marine economy the area

of sustainable marine economy will become a

multi-billion-market

Making the oceans accessible as a resource

requires a continuous development of the

maritime infrastructure This is a significant

future market for ship machine and plant

manufacturing companies The oceans will also

become more and more significant as transport

area As a result of the ever growing globalization

and changing spare time behaviors the growing

need for the transportation of goods and

passengers offers opportunities for companies

involved in the marine traffic and port industries

Developing coastal regions and a growing

environmentally responsible ocean tourism

promise ldquobluerdquo growth as well Tourism the

largest sector of the maritime industry creates

more than two million jobs in the European Union

and generates an added value of more than 100

billion Euro a year5

In the future the oceans and coastal regions will

be both work and living spaces for a growing

percentage of the world population Hundreds of

millions of people live on land located less than

five meters above sea level and the tendency is

growing Many of these rapidly growing mega-

cities expand in coastal and delta regions There

the ocean is not just an economic factor but

due to global warming a threat as well Rising

sea levels and increasingly extreme weather will

result in higher financial expenditures and

innovative technological methodology in the

segment of flood protection for coastal regions

Introduction

6

Future Markets in Marine Economy

Sustainable Marine Economy Growing Port Industry

Growing Usage of Maritime Resources

Growing Maritime Power Production

Development of Maritime Infrastructures

Maritime Technologies

Innovations in Shipbuilding Maritime Work and Living SpacesMarine Economy Growing Maritime Tourism

7

01Future Developments in Marine Economy

8

Which Trends Influence the Future of Marine Economy

Shortage of Resources Climate ChangesRising Demand for Food

Globalization Growth of Global Population New Economic Powers Urbanization

Shortage of Oil

Energy Innovations Demand for ExperiencesEcological Sustainability AutomationRobotization

9

Global trade will keep growing driven by forces

such as the continuing globalization and the

development of a broad and spend-happy middle

class in the emerging economic regions While

today about 60 percent of the global middle class

live in the developing and emerging countries by

the year 2030 it will be about 80 percent6 In the

same time period world trade will grow an

average of eight percent per year7 Marine trade

will more than double from todaylsquos nine billion

tons to 19 to 24 billion tons in the year 20308

Logistics companies port management ship

builders and their suppliers will benefit from

growing container traffic Following the over

capacity due to the economic crisis the demand

for new ships will grow by the year 20209 In

addition the average transport capacity and size

of container chips will keep growing To save

costs the shipsrsquo fuel efficiency and technical

equipment must improve continuously

Networking and automation are fields that will

become particularly significant

Future Developments in Marine Economy

10Future Developments in Marine Economy

The ocean holds huge resources from protein-

rich fish to crude oil gas and methane hydrate

as well as economically interesting minerals and

metals Biological resources are also useful in

fields such as cosmetics and medication

By the year 2030 food production will have to

increase by 50 percent to cover the growing need

of the world population Protecting the oceans as

one of the most important food sources will be a

particularly significant task because overfishing

of some fish stock is already an issue today

Products from wild catches are being replaced by

aquaculture ie controlled breeding Between

2012 and 2019 the global market for aquaculture

will grow by almost 50 percent to a total of 195

billion10 This development has a particularly

negative impact on developing countries where

peoplersquos livelihood is directly or indirectly

dependent on fishing or where nutritional

resources diminish by continued overfishing

Should fish stock be further decimated in the

future fishing regulations might tighten and

quotas intensify considerably

In the medium and long term increasing

commodity prices will make deep sea mining

attractive In the future ore in form of

manganese modules cobalt crusts and massive

sulfides will be mined as far as 4000 meters

below the surface11 Particularly manganese

modules which are rich in non-ferrous metals

provide high hopes because these metals are

used for the production of of modern high-tech

products such as smart phones solar cells wind

power plants or electric vehicles Sustainable

mining which is to say mining that will not put

too much strain on the ecosystem of the ocean

floor will provide a great challenge If we wish to

safeguard our resources in the long term the

mining of marine mineral resources is of strategic

importance Access to and research of these

resources are regulated by the International

Seabed Authority of the United Nations The rules

for commercial mining have not yet been

defined12

Between 2010 and 2040 the amount of oil mined in the deep sea will increase by more than 150 percent

13

11Future Developments in Marine Economy

Future Developments in Marine Economy 12

Nautilus Minerals from Canada is the first

company planning the mining of massive sulfides

from the seabed14 Germany owns research

licenses for two areas in the Pacific

The future of energy production also lies in the

oceans Globally about one third of natural gas

and oil is mined in the ocean and the tendency

is increasing15 The dependence of the global

economy on fossil fuels has risen to a precarious

level Almost all industrialized countries have to

import oil to cover their needs While the global

use of oil keeps growing quickly experts fear

that the maximum might be reached soon The

mining of new power sources which thus far are

not economically viable and the development of

new mining technologies are becoming more

significant In order to mine oil and gas in the

deep sea swimming platforms for example will

be needed Between 2010 and 2030 their

number will more than double to a total of 600

world wide16 In the future plants that can

operate directly on the seabed at depths of

several thousand meters will likely play an

increased role as well Suitable technologies

could revolutionize the offshore mining of natural

gas and oil and be far more cost effective than

todays platform-based plants

One of the largest fossil energy sources is

methane hydrate Countries investing most on

researching this energy source are Japan and the

USA In 2013 Japanese scientists were able to

mine gas stored one kilometer below sea level

and buried more than 300 meters deep in the

seabed Commercial mining is supposed to

commence by 2018 Offshore methane hydrate

resources could provide Japan with energy for

more than 100 years17 There are still

technological hurdles to overcome In addition

mining harbors geological and ecological risks

In addition to providing a large supply of energy

sources the oceans are also an energy source

itself Energy from wave tide and current power

plants will become a more significant part of the

regenerative energy mix The future market

marine energy is interesting for established plant

manufacturers as well as for innovative start-ups

13

Between 2013 and 2020 the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide

18

Future Developments in Marine Economy

14

The Finnish company Minesto for example

developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite

tethered to the seabed which moves with the

ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine

and a generator19

Offshore wind power will grow to become one of

the largest segments in the market for renewable

energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an

increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030

Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos

wind power will more than double to a total of 14

billion Euro By 2020 global investments in

offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20

Maritime tourism will become more significant as

well Today about 24 million people work in the

field of coastal and ocean tourism of which

150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past

few years this market has experienced an

enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the

number of passengers rose from 12 million to

213 million world wide a total growth of 77

percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers

will increase by an additional three million to a

total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect

passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have

to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding

industry will profit The trend toward experience

travel will increase the demand for specialized

tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)

Within the premium travel segment mobile

islands underwater hotels and submarine travel

could be an interesting growth market The

company Deep Ocean Technology for example

develops technologies for underwater hotels

The hotel room segments can be lowered up to

30 meters below sea level Plans to implement

such a prestigious project are already in

existence25

Future Developments in Marine Economy

15

02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

16

The competition for the economic usage of

maritime space and coastal regions will intensify

For example offshore wind park operators

compete with fisheries for space neighboring

states in the Arctic fiercely compete for

resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone

and cruise ship companies fight for the best

berths and mooring times in the most attractive

port cities To the extent that the oceans become

more and more attractive because new

technologies make the oceans a more efficient

and comprehensive fountain of food resources

and energy countries and corporations will

increase their investments and activities to

develop and access this potential Considering

the continuous population growth and the

increasing shortages of resources in a worst

case scenario unresolved or overlapping

territorial claims could turn violent and provoke

political conflict For example China and other

neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the

Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea

where experts assume large sources of raw

materials

Marine economy particularly ocean trade is

strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world

economy The world wide financial crisis had led

to a significantly reduced demand for shipping

space as well as cancellations and decreased

orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the

container ship building industry particularly in

Asia the German ship building industry had to

restructure and refocus building offshore-

oriented specialty ships instead of container

ships26 The question is how long will it take for

suppliers from emerging countries particularly

from China to enter the market for tailor-made

ships and offer them at lower costs There are

dramatic changes in the balance of the world

economy Developing and emerging countries will

provide an ever larger portion of the workforce

capital technology and trade volume By 2050

experts predict growth beyond average for the

BRIC states Their share of the global social

product will grow significantly

Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges

17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets

27

As soon as ten years from now China might

replace the United States as the largest national

economy in the world Today China is already

the largest container market In addition Chinese

banks could push into the market of ship

financing while German banks reduced their

involvement in this sector following the financial

crises In the future German ship owners

interested in investing might be forced to seek

financing from Chinese banks This could have a

negative impact on the German supplier industry

The competition between individual ports will

also intensify in the future Because container

ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer

central ports will handle an ever growing portion

of the sea trade For example within the next

few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its

container business to the JadeWeser port in

Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that

is independent of the tides and therefore

attractive to giant freighters28 International

relations change too While Hamburg used to

be among the largest container ports in the

world today it ranks only in 16th place By now

six of the top ten ports in the world are in

China29

Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges

to maritime traffic Although we seem to have

skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the

mining maximum by the expansion and

increased economic viability of unconventional oil

mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil

boom likely only defers the problem to a later

time

There are no clear predictions since a decrease

of conventional oil mining will result in higher

investments in research and development of

unconventional oil resources The danger

remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will

increase continuously or at the very least be

volatile In addition modernizing refineries will

result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-

product although the demand will keep rising

For several years now ship owners have tried to

reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with

slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies

18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

19

Sustainability is becoming ever more significant

in all trades The discussion of climate protection

involves marine traffic as well Due to new

environmental regulations the shipping industry

will face major challenges in the coming years

Increased restrictions that limit the emission of

harmful substances will require the use of

expensive fuels or investment in new filtering

and propulsion technologies Among other things

this will lead to additional cost increases for

container freight30 In 2008 the International

Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits

for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease

of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the

current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In

emission control areas an even stricter limit of

10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to

01 percent by 201531

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

20

Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)

32

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

21

03Opportunities and

Future Markets

22

Economic globalization will continue in the

coming years Adjusted for price the value of the

world wide trade of goods will grow from ten

billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars

in 203033 This development will benefit the port

industry too This industry includes all activities

involved in the value creation process of loading

and unloading goods as well as the transfer of

ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and

2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year

to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will

grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By

2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50

percent within the European Union35

Improving site conditions will become ever more

important for the individual ports for example

increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces

or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks

and train The German government focuses

current investments on the expansion of seaward

access roads as well as effective inland

connections36 Globally the need for investments

in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40

billion Euro a year by 203037

Ports will also

benefit from the growth of marine power

production For example ports will play an

increasingly central role in the value chain of

offshore wind energy There are future

opportunities in the fields of montage transfer

and service38 However ports will have to invest

heavily to be able to expand their capacities

accordingly

The significance of automation and safety

technologies will increase due to the growing

transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on

data that create a network of all actors involved

in the port economy promise additional

efficiency To guarantee international

competitiveness the cooperation between

individual ports might become increasingly

relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of

the cooperation between ports in Northern

Germany to improve the port location Germany39

Opportunities and Future Markets

23Opportunities and Future Markets

By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year

40

24

The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the

marine economy It connects ports

transportation methods and companies and

guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and

people The development of the oceans as a

source of food natural resources and energy

increases the need for an expansion of offshore

infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms

at ever greater distances to the shore require

new foundations and basic structures Innovative

technological solutions can significantly

contribute to a more cost efficient operation of

such plants The demand for specialists to

transport and mount materials and components

on site will grow The market for offshore supply

ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in

2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is

an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage

of goods natural resources and energy on

specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring

great logistic advantages for loading and

unloading procedures42 The expansion of an

underwater infrastructure for power cables will

be important to the energy transport particularly

to the transport of renewable energies Within

the next ten years the number of underwater

high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of

30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater

power cable will connect Norway and Germany

helping to level green power fluctuations

Opportunities and challenges in the area of

marine economy boost numerous technological

developments Maritime technologies are a

separate future market within the area of marine

economy They are particularly important to the

fields of ship technology energy mining the

mining of natural resources and the expansion

of maritime infrastructure Additional applications

are in the areas of measurement environment

and security technology Intelligent and

autonomous systems that can operate in great

depths are highly significant44 The Canadian

start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean

Institute for Marine Science and Technology and

the British company Seabed Resources want to

use highly modern robots to mine natural

resources in the deep sea

Opportunities and Future Markets

robust

25Opportunities and Future Markets

Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45

intelligent

sustainable

autonomous

26

In the middle and long term the trend towards

intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence

shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or

trucks scientists all over the world work on

concepts that are supposed to one day make it

possible that ships cross the oceans by

themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center

for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg

are developing related technology The crew can

be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks

after several boats at the same time To make

unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion

technologies and concepts have to be developed

as well because todayrsquos engine technology

requires far too much maintenance46

Technical developments that make use of the

efficiency potential reduce emissions and the

destructive influence on marine ecosystems are

becoming increasingly important considering the

background of climate changes and new

regulations Innovative marine technologies may

help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea

mining maritime energy production and more47

The greatest potential for successful positioning

in the future market of marine economy develops

in places where high technology and sustainable

concepts meet

The shipping sector does not only research

increasingly efficient propulsion methods but

also alternative propulsion methods Liquid

natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant

in the future The American company Tote

Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-

fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-

propelled container ship The ship is supposed to

start operating in 201548 By 2030 international

ocean shipping could potentially be the largest

LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The

industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop

this future market by expanding appropriate

LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel

methanol shore power and hydrogen will most

likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or

niche transport Hybrid solutions however might

prevail in the long term at least New and

powerful methods of energy storage are an

important prerequisite50

Opportunities and Future Markets

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

6

Future Markets in Marine Economy

Sustainable Marine Economy Growing Port Industry

Growing Usage of Maritime Resources

Growing Maritime Power Production

Development of Maritime Infrastructures

Maritime Technologies

Innovations in Shipbuilding Maritime Work and Living SpacesMarine Economy Growing Maritime Tourism

7

01Future Developments in Marine Economy

8

Which Trends Influence the Future of Marine Economy

Shortage of Resources Climate ChangesRising Demand for Food

Globalization Growth of Global Population New Economic Powers Urbanization

Shortage of Oil

Energy Innovations Demand for ExperiencesEcological Sustainability AutomationRobotization

9

Global trade will keep growing driven by forces

such as the continuing globalization and the

development of a broad and spend-happy middle

class in the emerging economic regions While

today about 60 percent of the global middle class

live in the developing and emerging countries by

the year 2030 it will be about 80 percent6 In the

same time period world trade will grow an

average of eight percent per year7 Marine trade

will more than double from todaylsquos nine billion

tons to 19 to 24 billion tons in the year 20308

Logistics companies port management ship

builders and their suppliers will benefit from

growing container traffic Following the over

capacity due to the economic crisis the demand

for new ships will grow by the year 20209 In

addition the average transport capacity and size

of container chips will keep growing To save

costs the shipsrsquo fuel efficiency and technical

equipment must improve continuously

Networking and automation are fields that will

become particularly significant

Future Developments in Marine Economy

10Future Developments in Marine Economy

The ocean holds huge resources from protein-

rich fish to crude oil gas and methane hydrate

as well as economically interesting minerals and

metals Biological resources are also useful in

fields such as cosmetics and medication

By the year 2030 food production will have to

increase by 50 percent to cover the growing need

of the world population Protecting the oceans as

one of the most important food sources will be a

particularly significant task because overfishing

of some fish stock is already an issue today

Products from wild catches are being replaced by

aquaculture ie controlled breeding Between

2012 and 2019 the global market for aquaculture

will grow by almost 50 percent to a total of 195

billion10 This development has a particularly

negative impact on developing countries where

peoplersquos livelihood is directly or indirectly

dependent on fishing or where nutritional

resources diminish by continued overfishing

Should fish stock be further decimated in the

future fishing regulations might tighten and

quotas intensify considerably

In the medium and long term increasing

commodity prices will make deep sea mining

attractive In the future ore in form of

manganese modules cobalt crusts and massive

sulfides will be mined as far as 4000 meters

below the surface11 Particularly manganese

modules which are rich in non-ferrous metals

provide high hopes because these metals are

used for the production of of modern high-tech

products such as smart phones solar cells wind

power plants or electric vehicles Sustainable

mining which is to say mining that will not put

too much strain on the ecosystem of the ocean

floor will provide a great challenge If we wish to

safeguard our resources in the long term the

mining of marine mineral resources is of strategic

importance Access to and research of these

resources are regulated by the International

Seabed Authority of the United Nations The rules

for commercial mining have not yet been

defined12

Between 2010 and 2040 the amount of oil mined in the deep sea will increase by more than 150 percent

13

11Future Developments in Marine Economy

Future Developments in Marine Economy 12

Nautilus Minerals from Canada is the first

company planning the mining of massive sulfides

from the seabed14 Germany owns research

licenses for two areas in the Pacific

The future of energy production also lies in the

oceans Globally about one third of natural gas

and oil is mined in the ocean and the tendency

is increasing15 The dependence of the global

economy on fossil fuels has risen to a precarious

level Almost all industrialized countries have to

import oil to cover their needs While the global

use of oil keeps growing quickly experts fear

that the maximum might be reached soon The

mining of new power sources which thus far are

not economically viable and the development of

new mining technologies are becoming more

significant In order to mine oil and gas in the

deep sea swimming platforms for example will

be needed Between 2010 and 2030 their

number will more than double to a total of 600

world wide16 In the future plants that can

operate directly on the seabed at depths of

several thousand meters will likely play an

increased role as well Suitable technologies

could revolutionize the offshore mining of natural

gas and oil and be far more cost effective than

todays platform-based plants

One of the largest fossil energy sources is

methane hydrate Countries investing most on

researching this energy source are Japan and the

USA In 2013 Japanese scientists were able to

mine gas stored one kilometer below sea level

and buried more than 300 meters deep in the

seabed Commercial mining is supposed to

commence by 2018 Offshore methane hydrate

resources could provide Japan with energy for

more than 100 years17 There are still

technological hurdles to overcome In addition

mining harbors geological and ecological risks

In addition to providing a large supply of energy

sources the oceans are also an energy source

itself Energy from wave tide and current power

plants will become a more significant part of the

regenerative energy mix The future market

marine energy is interesting for established plant

manufacturers as well as for innovative start-ups

13

Between 2013 and 2020 the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide

18

Future Developments in Marine Economy

14

The Finnish company Minesto for example

developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite

tethered to the seabed which moves with the

ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine

and a generator19

Offshore wind power will grow to become one of

the largest segments in the market for renewable

energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an

increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030

Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos

wind power will more than double to a total of 14

billion Euro By 2020 global investments in

offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20

Maritime tourism will become more significant as

well Today about 24 million people work in the

field of coastal and ocean tourism of which

150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past

few years this market has experienced an

enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the

number of passengers rose from 12 million to

213 million world wide a total growth of 77

percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers

will increase by an additional three million to a

total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect

passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have

to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding

industry will profit The trend toward experience

travel will increase the demand for specialized

tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)

Within the premium travel segment mobile

islands underwater hotels and submarine travel

could be an interesting growth market The

company Deep Ocean Technology for example

develops technologies for underwater hotels

The hotel room segments can be lowered up to

30 meters below sea level Plans to implement

such a prestigious project are already in

existence25

Future Developments in Marine Economy

15

02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

16

The competition for the economic usage of

maritime space and coastal regions will intensify

For example offshore wind park operators

compete with fisheries for space neighboring

states in the Arctic fiercely compete for

resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone

and cruise ship companies fight for the best

berths and mooring times in the most attractive

port cities To the extent that the oceans become

more and more attractive because new

technologies make the oceans a more efficient

and comprehensive fountain of food resources

and energy countries and corporations will

increase their investments and activities to

develop and access this potential Considering

the continuous population growth and the

increasing shortages of resources in a worst

case scenario unresolved or overlapping

territorial claims could turn violent and provoke

political conflict For example China and other

neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the

Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea

where experts assume large sources of raw

materials

Marine economy particularly ocean trade is

strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world

economy The world wide financial crisis had led

to a significantly reduced demand for shipping

space as well as cancellations and decreased

orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the

container ship building industry particularly in

Asia the German ship building industry had to

restructure and refocus building offshore-

oriented specialty ships instead of container

ships26 The question is how long will it take for

suppliers from emerging countries particularly

from China to enter the market for tailor-made

ships and offer them at lower costs There are

dramatic changes in the balance of the world

economy Developing and emerging countries will

provide an ever larger portion of the workforce

capital technology and trade volume By 2050

experts predict growth beyond average for the

BRIC states Their share of the global social

product will grow significantly

Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges

17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets

27

As soon as ten years from now China might

replace the United States as the largest national

economy in the world Today China is already

the largest container market In addition Chinese

banks could push into the market of ship

financing while German banks reduced their

involvement in this sector following the financial

crises In the future German ship owners

interested in investing might be forced to seek

financing from Chinese banks This could have a

negative impact on the German supplier industry

The competition between individual ports will

also intensify in the future Because container

ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer

central ports will handle an ever growing portion

of the sea trade For example within the next

few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its

container business to the JadeWeser port in

Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that

is independent of the tides and therefore

attractive to giant freighters28 International

relations change too While Hamburg used to

be among the largest container ports in the

world today it ranks only in 16th place By now

six of the top ten ports in the world are in

China29

Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges

to maritime traffic Although we seem to have

skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the

mining maximum by the expansion and

increased economic viability of unconventional oil

mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil

boom likely only defers the problem to a later

time

There are no clear predictions since a decrease

of conventional oil mining will result in higher

investments in research and development of

unconventional oil resources The danger

remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will

increase continuously or at the very least be

volatile In addition modernizing refineries will

result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-

product although the demand will keep rising

For several years now ship owners have tried to

reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with

slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies

18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

19

Sustainability is becoming ever more significant

in all trades The discussion of climate protection

involves marine traffic as well Due to new

environmental regulations the shipping industry

will face major challenges in the coming years

Increased restrictions that limit the emission of

harmful substances will require the use of

expensive fuels or investment in new filtering

and propulsion technologies Among other things

this will lead to additional cost increases for

container freight30 In 2008 the International

Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits

for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease

of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the

current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In

emission control areas an even stricter limit of

10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to

01 percent by 201531

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

20

Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)

32

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

21

03Opportunities and

Future Markets

22

Economic globalization will continue in the

coming years Adjusted for price the value of the

world wide trade of goods will grow from ten

billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars

in 203033 This development will benefit the port

industry too This industry includes all activities

involved in the value creation process of loading

and unloading goods as well as the transfer of

ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and

2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year

to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will

grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By

2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50

percent within the European Union35

Improving site conditions will become ever more

important for the individual ports for example

increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces

or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks

and train The German government focuses

current investments on the expansion of seaward

access roads as well as effective inland

connections36 Globally the need for investments

in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40

billion Euro a year by 203037

Ports will also

benefit from the growth of marine power

production For example ports will play an

increasingly central role in the value chain of

offshore wind energy There are future

opportunities in the fields of montage transfer

and service38 However ports will have to invest

heavily to be able to expand their capacities

accordingly

The significance of automation and safety

technologies will increase due to the growing

transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on

data that create a network of all actors involved

in the port economy promise additional

efficiency To guarantee international

competitiveness the cooperation between

individual ports might become increasingly

relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of

the cooperation between ports in Northern

Germany to improve the port location Germany39

Opportunities and Future Markets

23Opportunities and Future Markets

By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year

40

24

The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the

marine economy It connects ports

transportation methods and companies and

guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and

people The development of the oceans as a

source of food natural resources and energy

increases the need for an expansion of offshore

infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms

at ever greater distances to the shore require

new foundations and basic structures Innovative

technological solutions can significantly

contribute to a more cost efficient operation of

such plants The demand for specialists to

transport and mount materials and components

on site will grow The market for offshore supply

ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in

2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is

an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage

of goods natural resources and energy on

specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring

great logistic advantages for loading and

unloading procedures42 The expansion of an

underwater infrastructure for power cables will

be important to the energy transport particularly

to the transport of renewable energies Within

the next ten years the number of underwater

high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of

30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater

power cable will connect Norway and Germany

helping to level green power fluctuations

Opportunities and challenges in the area of

marine economy boost numerous technological

developments Maritime technologies are a

separate future market within the area of marine

economy They are particularly important to the

fields of ship technology energy mining the

mining of natural resources and the expansion

of maritime infrastructure Additional applications

are in the areas of measurement environment

and security technology Intelligent and

autonomous systems that can operate in great

depths are highly significant44 The Canadian

start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean

Institute for Marine Science and Technology and

the British company Seabed Resources want to

use highly modern robots to mine natural

resources in the deep sea

Opportunities and Future Markets

robust

25Opportunities and Future Markets

Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45

intelligent

sustainable

autonomous

26

In the middle and long term the trend towards

intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence

shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or

trucks scientists all over the world work on

concepts that are supposed to one day make it

possible that ships cross the oceans by

themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center

for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg

are developing related technology The crew can

be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks

after several boats at the same time To make

unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion

technologies and concepts have to be developed

as well because todayrsquos engine technology

requires far too much maintenance46

Technical developments that make use of the

efficiency potential reduce emissions and the

destructive influence on marine ecosystems are

becoming increasingly important considering the

background of climate changes and new

regulations Innovative marine technologies may

help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea

mining maritime energy production and more47

The greatest potential for successful positioning

in the future market of marine economy develops

in places where high technology and sustainable

concepts meet

The shipping sector does not only research

increasingly efficient propulsion methods but

also alternative propulsion methods Liquid

natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant

in the future The American company Tote

Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-

fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-

propelled container ship The ship is supposed to

start operating in 201548 By 2030 international

ocean shipping could potentially be the largest

LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The

industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop

this future market by expanding appropriate

LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel

methanol shore power and hydrogen will most

likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or

niche transport Hybrid solutions however might

prevail in the long term at least New and

powerful methods of energy storage are an

important prerequisite50

Opportunities and Future Markets

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

7

01Future Developments in Marine Economy

8

Which Trends Influence the Future of Marine Economy

Shortage of Resources Climate ChangesRising Demand for Food

Globalization Growth of Global Population New Economic Powers Urbanization

Shortage of Oil

Energy Innovations Demand for ExperiencesEcological Sustainability AutomationRobotization

9

Global trade will keep growing driven by forces

such as the continuing globalization and the

development of a broad and spend-happy middle

class in the emerging economic regions While

today about 60 percent of the global middle class

live in the developing and emerging countries by

the year 2030 it will be about 80 percent6 In the

same time period world trade will grow an

average of eight percent per year7 Marine trade

will more than double from todaylsquos nine billion

tons to 19 to 24 billion tons in the year 20308

Logistics companies port management ship

builders and their suppliers will benefit from

growing container traffic Following the over

capacity due to the economic crisis the demand

for new ships will grow by the year 20209 In

addition the average transport capacity and size

of container chips will keep growing To save

costs the shipsrsquo fuel efficiency and technical

equipment must improve continuously

Networking and automation are fields that will

become particularly significant

Future Developments in Marine Economy

10Future Developments in Marine Economy

The ocean holds huge resources from protein-

rich fish to crude oil gas and methane hydrate

as well as economically interesting minerals and

metals Biological resources are also useful in

fields such as cosmetics and medication

By the year 2030 food production will have to

increase by 50 percent to cover the growing need

of the world population Protecting the oceans as

one of the most important food sources will be a

particularly significant task because overfishing

of some fish stock is already an issue today

Products from wild catches are being replaced by

aquaculture ie controlled breeding Between

2012 and 2019 the global market for aquaculture

will grow by almost 50 percent to a total of 195

billion10 This development has a particularly

negative impact on developing countries where

peoplersquos livelihood is directly or indirectly

dependent on fishing or where nutritional

resources diminish by continued overfishing

Should fish stock be further decimated in the

future fishing regulations might tighten and

quotas intensify considerably

In the medium and long term increasing

commodity prices will make deep sea mining

attractive In the future ore in form of

manganese modules cobalt crusts and massive

sulfides will be mined as far as 4000 meters

below the surface11 Particularly manganese

modules which are rich in non-ferrous metals

provide high hopes because these metals are

used for the production of of modern high-tech

products such as smart phones solar cells wind

power plants or electric vehicles Sustainable

mining which is to say mining that will not put

too much strain on the ecosystem of the ocean

floor will provide a great challenge If we wish to

safeguard our resources in the long term the

mining of marine mineral resources is of strategic

importance Access to and research of these

resources are regulated by the International

Seabed Authority of the United Nations The rules

for commercial mining have not yet been

defined12

Between 2010 and 2040 the amount of oil mined in the deep sea will increase by more than 150 percent

13

11Future Developments in Marine Economy

Future Developments in Marine Economy 12

Nautilus Minerals from Canada is the first

company planning the mining of massive sulfides

from the seabed14 Germany owns research

licenses for two areas in the Pacific

The future of energy production also lies in the

oceans Globally about one third of natural gas

and oil is mined in the ocean and the tendency

is increasing15 The dependence of the global

economy on fossil fuels has risen to a precarious

level Almost all industrialized countries have to

import oil to cover their needs While the global

use of oil keeps growing quickly experts fear

that the maximum might be reached soon The

mining of new power sources which thus far are

not economically viable and the development of

new mining technologies are becoming more

significant In order to mine oil and gas in the

deep sea swimming platforms for example will

be needed Between 2010 and 2030 their

number will more than double to a total of 600

world wide16 In the future plants that can

operate directly on the seabed at depths of

several thousand meters will likely play an

increased role as well Suitable technologies

could revolutionize the offshore mining of natural

gas and oil and be far more cost effective than

todays platform-based plants

One of the largest fossil energy sources is

methane hydrate Countries investing most on

researching this energy source are Japan and the

USA In 2013 Japanese scientists were able to

mine gas stored one kilometer below sea level

and buried more than 300 meters deep in the

seabed Commercial mining is supposed to

commence by 2018 Offshore methane hydrate

resources could provide Japan with energy for

more than 100 years17 There are still

technological hurdles to overcome In addition

mining harbors geological and ecological risks

In addition to providing a large supply of energy

sources the oceans are also an energy source

itself Energy from wave tide and current power

plants will become a more significant part of the

regenerative energy mix The future market

marine energy is interesting for established plant

manufacturers as well as for innovative start-ups

13

Between 2013 and 2020 the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide

18

Future Developments in Marine Economy

14

The Finnish company Minesto for example

developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite

tethered to the seabed which moves with the

ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine

and a generator19

Offshore wind power will grow to become one of

the largest segments in the market for renewable

energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an

increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030

Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos

wind power will more than double to a total of 14

billion Euro By 2020 global investments in

offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20

Maritime tourism will become more significant as

well Today about 24 million people work in the

field of coastal and ocean tourism of which

150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past

few years this market has experienced an

enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the

number of passengers rose from 12 million to

213 million world wide a total growth of 77

percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers

will increase by an additional three million to a

total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect

passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have

to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding

industry will profit The trend toward experience

travel will increase the demand for specialized

tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)

Within the premium travel segment mobile

islands underwater hotels and submarine travel

could be an interesting growth market The

company Deep Ocean Technology for example

develops technologies for underwater hotels

The hotel room segments can be lowered up to

30 meters below sea level Plans to implement

such a prestigious project are already in

existence25

Future Developments in Marine Economy

15

02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

16

The competition for the economic usage of

maritime space and coastal regions will intensify

For example offshore wind park operators

compete with fisheries for space neighboring

states in the Arctic fiercely compete for

resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone

and cruise ship companies fight for the best

berths and mooring times in the most attractive

port cities To the extent that the oceans become

more and more attractive because new

technologies make the oceans a more efficient

and comprehensive fountain of food resources

and energy countries and corporations will

increase their investments and activities to

develop and access this potential Considering

the continuous population growth and the

increasing shortages of resources in a worst

case scenario unresolved or overlapping

territorial claims could turn violent and provoke

political conflict For example China and other

neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the

Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea

where experts assume large sources of raw

materials

Marine economy particularly ocean trade is

strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world

economy The world wide financial crisis had led

to a significantly reduced demand for shipping

space as well as cancellations and decreased

orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the

container ship building industry particularly in

Asia the German ship building industry had to

restructure and refocus building offshore-

oriented specialty ships instead of container

ships26 The question is how long will it take for

suppliers from emerging countries particularly

from China to enter the market for tailor-made

ships and offer them at lower costs There are

dramatic changes in the balance of the world

economy Developing and emerging countries will

provide an ever larger portion of the workforce

capital technology and trade volume By 2050

experts predict growth beyond average for the

BRIC states Their share of the global social

product will grow significantly

Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges

17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets

27

As soon as ten years from now China might

replace the United States as the largest national

economy in the world Today China is already

the largest container market In addition Chinese

banks could push into the market of ship

financing while German banks reduced their

involvement in this sector following the financial

crises In the future German ship owners

interested in investing might be forced to seek

financing from Chinese banks This could have a

negative impact on the German supplier industry

The competition between individual ports will

also intensify in the future Because container

ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer

central ports will handle an ever growing portion

of the sea trade For example within the next

few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its

container business to the JadeWeser port in

Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that

is independent of the tides and therefore

attractive to giant freighters28 International

relations change too While Hamburg used to

be among the largest container ports in the

world today it ranks only in 16th place By now

six of the top ten ports in the world are in

China29

Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges

to maritime traffic Although we seem to have

skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the

mining maximum by the expansion and

increased economic viability of unconventional oil

mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil

boom likely only defers the problem to a later

time

There are no clear predictions since a decrease

of conventional oil mining will result in higher

investments in research and development of

unconventional oil resources The danger

remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will

increase continuously or at the very least be

volatile In addition modernizing refineries will

result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-

product although the demand will keep rising

For several years now ship owners have tried to

reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with

slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies

18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

19

Sustainability is becoming ever more significant

in all trades The discussion of climate protection

involves marine traffic as well Due to new

environmental regulations the shipping industry

will face major challenges in the coming years

Increased restrictions that limit the emission of

harmful substances will require the use of

expensive fuels or investment in new filtering

and propulsion technologies Among other things

this will lead to additional cost increases for

container freight30 In 2008 the International

Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits

for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease

of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the

current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In

emission control areas an even stricter limit of

10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to

01 percent by 201531

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

20

Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)

32

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

21

03Opportunities and

Future Markets

22

Economic globalization will continue in the

coming years Adjusted for price the value of the

world wide trade of goods will grow from ten

billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars

in 203033 This development will benefit the port

industry too This industry includes all activities

involved in the value creation process of loading

and unloading goods as well as the transfer of

ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and

2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year

to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will

grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By

2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50

percent within the European Union35

Improving site conditions will become ever more

important for the individual ports for example

increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces

or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks

and train The German government focuses

current investments on the expansion of seaward

access roads as well as effective inland

connections36 Globally the need for investments

in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40

billion Euro a year by 203037

Ports will also

benefit from the growth of marine power

production For example ports will play an

increasingly central role in the value chain of

offshore wind energy There are future

opportunities in the fields of montage transfer

and service38 However ports will have to invest

heavily to be able to expand their capacities

accordingly

The significance of automation and safety

technologies will increase due to the growing

transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on

data that create a network of all actors involved

in the port economy promise additional

efficiency To guarantee international

competitiveness the cooperation between

individual ports might become increasingly

relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of

the cooperation between ports in Northern

Germany to improve the port location Germany39

Opportunities and Future Markets

23Opportunities and Future Markets

By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year

40

24

The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the

marine economy It connects ports

transportation methods and companies and

guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and

people The development of the oceans as a

source of food natural resources and energy

increases the need for an expansion of offshore

infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms

at ever greater distances to the shore require

new foundations and basic structures Innovative

technological solutions can significantly

contribute to a more cost efficient operation of

such plants The demand for specialists to

transport and mount materials and components

on site will grow The market for offshore supply

ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in

2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is

an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage

of goods natural resources and energy on

specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring

great logistic advantages for loading and

unloading procedures42 The expansion of an

underwater infrastructure for power cables will

be important to the energy transport particularly

to the transport of renewable energies Within

the next ten years the number of underwater

high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of

30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater

power cable will connect Norway and Germany

helping to level green power fluctuations

Opportunities and challenges in the area of

marine economy boost numerous technological

developments Maritime technologies are a

separate future market within the area of marine

economy They are particularly important to the

fields of ship technology energy mining the

mining of natural resources and the expansion

of maritime infrastructure Additional applications

are in the areas of measurement environment

and security technology Intelligent and

autonomous systems that can operate in great

depths are highly significant44 The Canadian

start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean

Institute for Marine Science and Technology and

the British company Seabed Resources want to

use highly modern robots to mine natural

resources in the deep sea

Opportunities and Future Markets

robust

25Opportunities and Future Markets

Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45

intelligent

sustainable

autonomous

26

In the middle and long term the trend towards

intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence

shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or

trucks scientists all over the world work on

concepts that are supposed to one day make it

possible that ships cross the oceans by

themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center

for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg

are developing related technology The crew can

be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks

after several boats at the same time To make

unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion

technologies and concepts have to be developed

as well because todayrsquos engine technology

requires far too much maintenance46

Technical developments that make use of the

efficiency potential reduce emissions and the

destructive influence on marine ecosystems are

becoming increasingly important considering the

background of climate changes and new

regulations Innovative marine technologies may

help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea

mining maritime energy production and more47

The greatest potential for successful positioning

in the future market of marine economy develops

in places where high technology and sustainable

concepts meet

The shipping sector does not only research

increasingly efficient propulsion methods but

also alternative propulsion methods Liquid

natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant

in the future The American company Tote

Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-

fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-

propelled container ship The ship is supposed to

start operating in 201548 By 2030 international

ocean shipping could potentially be the largest

LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The

industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop

this future market by expanding appropriate

LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel

methanol shore power and hydrogen will most

likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or

niche transport Hybrid solutions however might

prevail in the long term at least New and

powerful methods of energy storage are an

important prerequisite50

Opportunities and Future Markets

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

8

Which Trends Influence the Future of Marine Economy

Shortage of Resources Climate ChangesRising Demand for Food

Globalization Growth of Global Population New Economic Powers Urbanization

Shortage of Oil

Energy Innovations Demand for ExperiencesEcological Sustainability AutomationRobotization

9

Global trade will keep growing driven by forces

such as the continuing globalization and the

development of a broad and spend-happy middle

class in the emerging economic regions While

today about 60 percent of the global middle class

live in the developing and emerging countries by

the year 2030 it will be about 80 percent6 In the

same time period world trade will grow an

average of eight percent per year7 Marine trade

will more than double from todaylsquos nine billion

tons to 19 to 24 billion tons in the year 20308

Logistics companies port management ship

builders and their suppliers will benefit from

growing container traffic Following the over

capacity due to the economic crisis the demand

for new ships will grow by the year 20209 In

addition the average transport capacity and size

of container chips will keep growing To save

costs the shipsrsquo fuel efficiency and technical

equipment must improve continuously

Networking and automation are fields that will

become particularly significant

Future Developments in Marine Economy

10Future Developments in Marine Economy

The ocean holds huge resources from protein-

rich fish to crude oil gas and methane hydrate

as well as economically interesting minerals and

metals Biological resources are also useful in

fields such as cosmetics and medication

By the year 2030 food production will have to

increase by 50 percent to cover the growing need

of the world population Protecting the oceans as

one of the most important food sources will be a

particularly significant task because overfishing

of some fish stock is already an issue today

Products from wild catches are being replaced by

aquaculture ie controlled breeding Between

2012 and 2019 the global market for aquaculture

will grow by almost 50 percent to a total of 195

billion10 This development has a particularly

negative impact on developing countries where

peoplersquos livelihood is directly or indirectly

dependent on fishing or where nutritional

resources diminish by continued overfishing

Should fish stock be further decimated in the

future fishing regulations might tighten and

quotas intensify considerably

In the medium and long term increasing

commodity prices will make deep sea mining

attractive In the future ore in form of

manganese modules cobalt crusts and massive

sulfides will be mined as far as 4000 meters

below the surface11 Particularly manganese

modules which are rich in non-ferrous metals

provide high hopes because these metals are

used for the production of of modern high-tech

products such as smart phones solar cells wind

power plants or electric vehicles Sustainable

mining which is to say mining that will not put

too much strain on the ecosystem of the ocean

floor will provide a great challenge If we wish to

safeguard our resources in the long term the

mining of marine mineral resources is of strategic

importance Access to and research of these

resources are regulated by the International

Seabed Authority of the United Nations The rules

for commercial mining have not yet been

defined12

Between 2010 and 2040 the amount of oil mined in the deep sea will increase by more than 150 percent

13

11Future Developments in Marine Economy

Future Developments in Marine Economy 12

Nautilus Minerals from Canada is the first

company planning the mining of massive sulfides

from the seabed14 Germany owns research

licenses for two areas in the Pacific

The future of energy production also lies in the

oceans Globally about one third of natural gas

and oil is mined in the ocean and the tendency

is increasing15 The dependence of the global

economy on fossil fuels has risen to a precarious

level Almost all industrialized countries have to

import oil to cover their needs While the global

use of oil keeps growing quickly experts fear

that the maximum might be reached soon The

mining of new power sources which thus far are

not economically viable and the development of

new mining technologies are becoming more

significant In order to mine oil and gas in the

deep sea swimming platforms for example will

be needed Between 2010 and 2030 their

number will more than double to a total of 600

world wide16 In the future plants that can

operate directly on the seabed at depths of

several thousand meters will likely play an

increased role as well Suitable technologies

could revolutionize the offshore mining of natural

gas and oil and be far more cost effective than

todays platform-based plants

One of the largest fossil energy sources is

methane hydrate Countries investing most on

researching this energy source are Japan and the

USA In 2013 Japanese scientists were able to

mine gas stored one kilometer below sea level

and buried more than 300 meters deep in the

seabed Commercial mining is supposed to

commence by 2018 Offshore methane hydrate

resources could provide Japan with energy for

more than 100 years17 There are still

technological hurdles to overcome In addition

mining harbors geological and ecological risks

In addition to providing a large supply of energy

sources the oceans are also an energy source

itself Energy from wave tide and current power

plants will become a more significant part of the

regenerative energy mix The future market

marine energy is interesting for established plant

manufacturers as well as for innovative start-ups

13

Between 2013 and 2020 the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide

18

Future Developments in Marine Economy

14

The Finnish company Minesto for example

developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite

tethered to the seabed which moves with the

ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine

and a generator19

Offshore wind power will grow to become one of

the largest segments in the market for renewable

energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an

increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030

Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos

wind power will more than double to a total of 14

billion Euro By 2020 global investments in

offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20

Maritime tourism will become more significant as

well Today about 24 million people work in the

field of coastal and ocean tourism of which

150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past

few years this market has experienced an

enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the

number of passengers rose from 12 million to

213 million world wide a total growth of 77

percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers

will increase by an additional three million to a

total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect

passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have

to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding

industry will profit The trend toward experience

travel will increase the demand for specialized

tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)

Within the premium travel segment mobile

islands underwater hotels and submarine travel

could be an interesting growth market The

company Deep Ocean Technology for example

develops technologies for underwater hotels

The hotel room segments can be lowered up to

30 meters below sea level Plans to implement

such a prestigious project are already in

existence25

Future Developments in Marine Economy

15

02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

16

The competition for the economic usage of

maritime space and coastal regions will intensify

For example offshore wind park operators

compete with fisheries for space neighboring

states in the Arctic fiercely compete for

resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone

and cruise ship companies fight for the best

berths and mooring times in the most attractive

port cities To the extent that the oceans become

more and more attractive because new

technologies make the oceans a more efficient

and comprehensive fountain of food resources

and energy countries and corporations will

increase their investments and activities to

develop and access this potential Considering

the continuous population growth and the

increasing shortages of resources in a worst

case scenario unresolved or overlapping

territorial claims could turn violent and provoke

political conflict For example China and other

neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the

Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea

where experts assume large sources of raw

materials

Marine economy particularly ocean trade is

strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world

economy The world wide financial crisis had led

to a significantly reduced demand for shipping

space as well as cancellations and decreased

orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the

container ship building industry particularly in

Asia the German ship building industry had to

restructure and refocus building offshore-

oriented specialty ships instead of container

ships26 The question is how long will it take for

suppliers from emerging countries particularly

from China to enter the market for tailor-made

ships and offer them at lower costs There are

dramatic changes in the balance of the world

economy Developing and emerging countries will

provide an ever larger portion of the workforce

capital technology and trade volume By 2050

experts predict growth beyond average for the

BRIC states Their share of the global social

product will grow significantly

Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges

17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets

27

As soon as ten years from now China might

replace the United States as the largest national

economy in the world Today China is already

the largest container market In addition Chinese

banks could push into the market of ship

financing while German banks reduced their

involvement in this sector following the financial

crises In the future German ship owners

interested in investing might be forced to seek

financing from Chinese banks This could have a

negative impact on the German supplier industry

The competition between individual ports will

also intensify in the future Because container

ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer

central ports will handle an ever growing portion

of the sea trade For example within the next

few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its

container business to the JadeWeser port in

Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that

is independent of the tides and therefore

attractive to giant freighters28 International

relations change too While Hamburg used to

be among the largest container ports in the

world today it ranks only in 16th place By now

six of the top ten ports in the world are in

China29

Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges

to maritime traffic Although we seem to have

skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the

mining maximum by the expansion and

increased economic viability of unconventional oil

mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil

boom likely only defers the problem to a later

time

There are no clear predictions since a decrease

of conventional oil mining will result in higher

investments in research and development of

unconventional oil resources The danger

remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will

increase continuously or at the very least be

volatile In addition modernizing refineries will

result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-

product although the demand will keep rising

For several years now ship owners have tried to

reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with

slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies

18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

19

Sustainability is becoming ever more significant

in all trades The discussion of climate protection

involves marine traffic as well Due to new

environmental regulations the shipping industry

will face major challenges in the coming years

Increased restrictions that limit the emission of

harmful substances will require the use of

expensive fuels or investment in new filtering

and propulsion technologies Among other things

this will lead to additional cost increases for

container freight30 In 2008 the International

Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits

for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease

of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the

current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In

emission control areas an even stricter limit of

10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to

01 percent by 201531

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

20

Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)

32

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

21

03Opportunities and

Future Markets

22

Economic globalization will continue in the

coming years Adjusted for price the value of the

world wide trade of goods will grow from ten

billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars

in 203033 This development will benefit the port

industry too This industry includes all activities

involved in the value creation process of loading

and unloading goods as well as the transfer of

ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and

2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year

to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will

grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By

2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50

percent within the European Union35

Improving site conditions will become ever more

important for the individual ports for example

increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces

or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks

and train The German government focuses

current investments on the expansion of seaward

access roads as well as effective inland

connections36 Globally the need for investments

in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40

billion Euro a year by 203037

Ports will also

benefit from the growth of marine power

production For example ports will play an

increasingly central role in the value chain of

offshore wind energy There are future

opportunities in the fields of montage transfer

and service38 However ports will have to invest

heavily to be able to expand their capacities

accordingly

The significance of automation and safety

technologies will increase due to the growing

transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on

data that create a network of all actors involved

in the port economy promise additional

efficiency To guarantee international

competitiveness the cooperation between

individual ports might become increasingly

relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of

the cooperation between ports in Northern

Germany to improve the port location Germany39

Opportunities and Future Markets

23Opportunities and Future Markets

By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year

40

24

The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the

marine economy It connects ports

transportation methods and companies and

guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and

people The development of the oceans as a

source of food natural resources and energy

increases the need for an expansion of offshore

infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms

at ever greater distances to the shore require

new foundations and basic structures Innovative

technological solutions can significantly

contribute to a more cost efficient operation of

such plants The demand for specialists to

transport and mount materials and components

on site will grow The market for offshore supply

ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in

2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is

an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage

of goods natural resources and energy on

specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring

great logistic advantages for loading and

unloading procedures42 The expansion of an

underwater infrastructure for power cables will

be important to the energy transport particularly

to the transport of renewable energies Within

the next ten years the number of underwater

high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of

30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater

power cable will connect Norway and Germany

helping to level green power fluctuations

Opportunities and challenges in the area of

marine economy boost numerous technological

developments Maritime technologies are a

separate future market within the area of marine

economy They are particularly important to the

fields of ship technology energy mining the

mining of natural resources and the expansion

of maritime infrastructure Additional applications

are in the areas of measurement environment

and security technology Intelligent and

autonomous systems that can operate in great

depths are highly significant44 The Canadian

start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean

Institute for Marine Science and Technology and

the British company Seabed Resources want to

use highly modern robots to mine natural

resources in the deep sea

Opportunities and Future Markets

robust

25Opportunities and Future Markets

Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45

intelligent

sustainable

autonomous

26

In the middle and long term the trend towards

intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence

shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or

trucks scientists all over the world work on

concepts that are supposed to one day make it

possible that ships cross the oceans by

themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center

for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg

are developing related technology The crew can

be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks

after several boats at the same time To make

unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion

technologies and concepts have to be developed

as well because todayrsquos engine technology

requires far too much maintenance46

Technical developments that make use of the

efficiency potential reduce emissions and the

destructive influence on marine ecosystems are

becoming increasingly important considering the

background of climate changes and new

regulations Innovative marine technologies may

help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea

mining maritime energy production and more47

The greatest potential for successful positioning

in the future market of marine economy develops

in places where high technology and sustainable

concepts meet

The shipping sector does not only research

increasingly efficient propulsion methods but

also alternative propulsion methods Liquid

natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant

in the future The American company Tote

Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-

fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-

propelled container ship The ship is supposed to

start operating in 201548 By 2030 international

ocean shipping could potentially be the largest

LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The

industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop

this future market by expanding appropriate

LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel

methanol shore power and hydrogen will most

likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or

niche transport Hybrid solutions however might

prevail in the long term at least New and

powerful methods of energy storage are an

important prerequisite50

Opportunities and Future Markets

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

9

Global trade will keep growing driven by forces

such as the continuing globalization and the

development of a broad and spend-happy middle

class in the emerging economic regions While

today about 60 percent of the global middle class

live in the developing and emerging countries by

the year 2030 it will be about 80 percent6 In the

same time period world trade will grow an

average of eight percent per year7 Marine trade

will more than double from todaylsquos nine billion

tons to 19 to 24 billion tons in the year 20308

Logistics companies port management ship

builders and their suppliers will benefit from

growing container traffic Following the over

capacity due to the economic crisis the demand

for new ships will grow by the year 20209 In

addition the average transport capacity and size

of container chips will keep growing To save

costs the shipsrsquo fuel efficiency and technical

equipment must improve continuously

Networking and automation are fields that will

become particularly significant

Future Developments in Marine Economy

10Future Developments in Marine Economy

The ocean holds huge resources from protein-

rich fish to crude oil gas and methane hydrate

as well as economically interesting minerals and

metals Biological resources are also useful in

fields such as cosmetics and medication

By the year 2030 food production will have to

increase by 50 percent to cover the growing need

of the world population Protecting the oceans as

one of the most important food sources will be a

particularly significant task because overfishing

of some fish stock is already an issue today

Products from wild catches are being replaced by

aquaculture ie controlled breeding Between

2012 and 2019 the global market for aquaculture

will grow by almost 50 percent to a total of 195

billion10 This development has a particularly

negative impact on developing countries where

peoplersquos livelihood is directly or indirectly

dependent on fishing or where nutritional

resources diminish by continued overfishing

Should fish stock be further decimated in the

future fishing regulations might tighten and

quotas intensify considerably

In the medium and long term increasing

commodity prices will make deep sea mining

attractive In the future ore in form of

manganese modules cobalt crusts and massive

sulfides will be mined as far as 4000 meters

below the surface11 Particularly manganese

modules which are rich in non-ferrous metals

provide high hopes because these metals are

used for the production of of modern high-tech

products such as smart phones solar cells wind

power plants or electric vehicles Sustainable

mining which is to say mining that will not put

too much strain on the ecosystem of the ocean

floor will provide a great challenge If we wish to

safeguard our resources in the long term the

mining of marine mineral resources is of strategic

importance Access to and research of these

resources are regulated by the International

Seabed Authority of the United Nations The rules

for commercial mining have not yet been

defined12

Between 2010 and 2040 the amount of oil mined in the deep sea will increase by more than 150 percent

13

11Future Developments in Marine Economy

Future Developments in Marine Economy 12

Nautilus Minerals from Canada is the first

company planning the mining of massive sulfides

from the seabed14 Germany owns research

licenses for two areas in the Pacific

The future of energy production also lies in the

oceans Globally about one third of natural gas

and oil is mined in the ocean and the tendency

is increasing15 The dependence of the global

economy on fossil fuels has risen to a precarious

level Almost all industrialized countries have to

import oil to cover their needs While the global

use of oil keeps growing quickly experts fear

that the maximum might be reached soon The

mining of new power sources which thus far are

not economically viable and the development of

new mining technologies are becoming more

significant In order to mine oil and gas in the

deep sea swimming platforms for example will

be needed Between 2010 and 2030 their

number will more than double to a total of 600

world wide16 In the future plants that can

operate directly on the seabed at depths of

several thousand meters will likely play an

increased role as well Suitable technologies

could revolutionize the offshore mining of natural

gas and oil and be far more cost effective than

todays platform-based plants

One of the largest fossil energy sources is

methane hydrate Countries investing most on

researching this energy source are Japan and the

USA In 2013 Japanese scientists were able to

mine gas stored one kilometer below sea level

and buried more than 300 meters deep in the

seabed Commercial mining is supposed to

commence by 2018 Offshore methane hydrate

resources could provide Japan with energy for

more than 100 years17 There are still

technological hurdles to overcome In addition

mining harbors geological and ecological risks

In addition to providing a large supply of energy

sources the oceans are also an energy source

itself Energy from wave tide and current power

plants will become a more significant part of the

regenerative energy mix The future market

marine energy is interesting for established plant

manufacturers as well as for innovative start-ups

13

Between 2013 and 2020 the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide

18

Future Developments in Marine Economy

14

The Finnish company Minesto for example

developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite

tethered to the seabed which moves with the

ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine

and a generator19

Offshore wind power will grow to become one of

the largest segments in the market for renewable

energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an

increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030

Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos

wind power will more than double to a total of 14

billion Euro By 2020 global investments in

offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20

Maritime tourism will become more significant as

well Today about 24 million people work in the

field of coastal and ocean tourism of which

150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past

few years this market has experienced an

enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the

number of passengers rose from 12 million to

213 million world wide a total growth of 77

percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers

will increase by an additional three million to a

total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect

passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have

to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding

industry will profit The trend toward experience

travel will increase the demand for specialized

tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)

Within the premium travel segment mobile

islands underwater hotels and submarine travel

could be an interesting growth market The

company Deep Ocean Technology for example

develops technologies for underwater hotels

The hotel room segments can be lowered up to

30 meters below sea level Plans to implement

such a prestigious project are already in

existence25

Future Developments in Marine Economy

15

02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

16

The competition for the economic usage of

maritime space and coastal regions will intensify

For example offshore wind park operators

compete with fisheries for space neighboring

states in the Arctic fiercely compete for

resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone

and cruise ship companies fight for the best

berths and mooring times in the most attractive

port cities To the extent that the oceans become

more and more attractive because new

technologies make the oceans a more efficient

and comprehensive fountain of food resources

and energy countries and corporations will

increase their investments and activities to

develop and access this potential Considering

the continuous population growth and the

increasing shortages of resources in a worst

case scenario unresolved or overlapping

territorial claims could turn violent and provoke

political conflict For example China and other

neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the

Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea

where experts assume large sources of raw

materials

Marine economy particularly ocean trade is

strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world

economy The world wide financial crisis had led

to a significantly reduced demand for shipping

space as well as cancellations and decreased

orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the

container ship building industry particularly in

Asia the German ship building industry had to

restructure and refocus building offshore-

oriented specialty ships instead of container

ships26 The question is how long will it take for

suppliers from emerging countries particularly

from China to enter the market for tailor-made

ships and offer them at lower costs There are

dramatic changes in the balance of the world

economy Developing and emerging countries will

provide an ever larger portion of the workforce

capital technology and trade volume By 2050

experts predict growth beyond average for the

BRIC states Their share of the global social

product will grow significantly

Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges

17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets

27

As soon as ten years from now China might

replace the United States as the largest national

economy in the world Today China is already

the largest container market In addition Chinese

banks could push into the market of ship

financing while German banks reduced their

involvement in this sector following the financial

crises In the future German ship owners

interested in investing might be forced to seek

financing from Chinese banks This could have a

negative impact on the German supplier industry

The competition between individual ports will

also intensify in the future Because container

ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer

central ports will handle an ever growing portion

of the sea trade For example within the next

few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its

container business to the JadeWeser port in

Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that

is independent of the tides and therefore

attractive to giant freighters28 International

relations change too While Hamburg used to

be among the largest container ports in the

world today it ranks only in 16th place By now

six of the top ten ports in the world are in

China29

Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges

to maritime traffic Although we seem to have

skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the

mining maximum by the expansion and

increased economic viability of unconventional oil

mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil

boom likely only defers the problem to a later

time

There are no clear predictions since a decrease

of conventional oil mining will result in higher

investments in research and development of

unconventional oil resources The danger

remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will

increase continuously or at the very least be

volatile In addition modernizing refineries will

result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-

product although the demand will keep rising

For several years now ship owners have tried to

reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with

slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies

18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

19

Sustainability is becoming ever more significant

in all trades The discussion of climate protection

involves marine traffic as well Due to new

environmental regulations the shipping industry

will face major challenges in the coming years

Increased restrictions that limit the emission of

harmful substances will require the use of

expensive fuels or investment in new filtering

and propulsion technologies Among other things

this will lead to additional cost increases for

container freight30 In 2008 the International

Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits

for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease

of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the

current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In

emission control areas an even stricter limit of

10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to

01 percent by 201531

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

20

Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)

32

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

21

03Opportunities and

Future Markets

22

Economic globalization will continue in the

coming years Adjusted for price the value of the

world wide trade of goods will grow from ten

billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars

in 203033 This development will benefit the port

industry too This industry includes all activities

involved in the value creation process of loading

and unloading goods as well as the transfer of

ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and

2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year

to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will

grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By

2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50

percent within the European Union35

Improving site conditions will become ever more

important for the individual ports for example

increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces

or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks

and train The German government focuses

current investments on the expansion of seaward

access roads as well as effective inland

connections36 Globally the need for investments

in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40

billion Euro a year by 203037

Ports will also

benefit from the growth of marine power

production For example ports will play an

increasingly central role in the value chain of

offshore wind energy There are future

opportunities in the fields of montage transfer

and service38 However ports will have to invest

heavily to be able to expand their capacities

accordingly

The significance of automation and safety

technologies will increase due to the growing

transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on

data that create a network of all actors involved

in the port economy promise additional

efficiency To guarantee international

competitiveness the cooperation between

individual ports might become increasingly

relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of

the cooperation between ports in Northern

Germany to improve the port location Germany39

Opportunities and Future Markets

23Opportunities and Future Markets

By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year

40

24

The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the

marine economy It connects ports

transportation methods and companies and

guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and

people The development of the oceans as a

source of food natural resources and energy

increases the need for an expansion of offshore

infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms

at ever greater distances to the shore require

new foundations and basic structures Innovative

technological solutions can significantly

contribute to a more cost efficient operation of

such plants The demand for specialists to

transport and mount materials and components

on site will grow The market for offshore supply

ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in

2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is

an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage

of goods natural resources and energy on

specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring

great logistic advantages for loading and

unloading procedures42 The expansion of an

underwater infrastructure for power cables will

be important to the energy transport particularly

to the transport of renewable energies Within

the next ten years the number of underwater

high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of

30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater

power cable will connect Norway and Germany

helping to level green power fluctuations

Opportunities and challenges in the area of

marine economy boost numerous technological

developments Maritime technologies are a

separate future market within the area of marine

economy They are particularly important to the

fields of ship technology energy mining the

mining of natural resources and the expansion

of maritime infrastructure Additional applications

are in the areas of measurement environment

and security technology Intelligent and

autonomous systems that can operate in great

depths are highly significant44 The Canadian

start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean

Institute for Marine Science and Technology and

the British company Seabed Resources want to

use highly modern robots to mine natural

resources in the deep sea

Opportunities and Future Markets

robust

25Opportunities and Future Markets

Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45

intelligent

sustainable

autonomous

26

In the middle and long term the trend towards

intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence

shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or

trucks scientists all over the world work on

concepts that are supposed to one day make it

possible that ships cross the oceans by

themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center

for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg

are developing related technology The crew can

be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks

after several boats at the same time To make

unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion

technologies and concepts have to be developed

as well because todayrsquos engine technology

requires far too much maintenance46

Technical developments that make use of the

efficiency potential reduce emissions and the

destructive influence on marine ecosystems are

becoming increasingly important considering the

background of climate changes and new

regulations Innovative marine technologies may

help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea

mining maritime energy production and more47

The greatest potential for successful positioning

in the future market of marine economy develops

in places where high technology and sustainable

concepts meet

The shipping sector does not only research

increasingly efficient propulsion methods but

also alternative propulsion methods Liquid

natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant

in the future The American company Tote

Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-

fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-

propelled container ship The ship is supposed to

start operating in 201548 By 2030 international

ocean shipping could potentially be the largest

LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The

industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop

this future market by expanding appropriate

LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel

methanol shore power and hydrogen will most

likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or

niche transport Hybrid solutions however might

prevail in the long term at least New and

powerful methods of energy storage are an

important prerequisite50

Opportunities and Future Markets

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

10Future Developments in Marine Economy

The ocean holds huge resources from protein-

rich fish to crude oil gas and methane hydrate

as well as economically interesting minerals and

metals Biological resources are also useful in

fields such as cosmetics and medication

By the year 2030 food production will have to

increase by 50 percent to cover the growing need

of the world population Protecting the oceans as

one of the most important food sources will be a

particularly significant task because overfishing

of some fish stock is already an issue today

Products from wild catches are being replaced by

aquaculture ie controlled breeding Between

2012 and 2019 the global market for aquaculture

will grow by almost 50 percent to a total of 195

billion10 This development has a particularly

negative impact on developing countries where

peoplersquos livelihood is directly or indirectly

dependent on fishing or where nutritional

resources diminish by continued overfishing

Should fish stock be further decimated in the

future fishing regulations might tighten and

quotas intensify considerably

In the medium and long term increasing

commodity prices will make deep sea mining

attractive In the future ore in form of

manganese modules cobalt crusts and massive

sulfides will be mined as far as 4000 meters

below the surface11 Particularly manganese

modules which are rich in non-ferrous metals

provide high hopes because these metals are

used for the production of of modern high-tech

products such as smart phones solar cells wind

power plants or electric vehicles Sustainable

mining which is to say mining that will not put

too much strain on the ecosystem of the ocean

floor will provide a great challenge If we wish to

safeguard our resources in the long term the

mining of marine mineral resources is of strategic

importance Access to and research of these

resources are regulated by the International

Seabed Authority of the United Nations The rules

for commercial mining have not yet been

defined12

Between 2010 and 2040 the amount of oil mined in the deep sea will increase by more than 150 percent

13

11Future Developments in Marine Economy

Future Developments in Marine Economy 12

Nautilus Minerals from Canada is the first

company planning the mining of massive sulfides

from the seabed14 Germany owns research

licenses for two areas in the Pacific

The future of energy production also lies in the

oceans Globally about one third of natural gas

and oil is mined in the ocean and the tendency

is increasing15 The dependence of the global

economy on fossil fuels has risen to a precarious

level Almost all industrialized countries have to

import oil to cover their needs While the global

use of oil keeps growing quickly experts fear

that the maximum might be reached soon The

mining of new power sources which thus far are

not economically viable and the development of

new mining technologies are becoming more

significant In order to mine oil and gas in the

deep sea swimming platforms for example will

be needed Between 2010 and 2030 their

number will more than double to a total of 600

world wide16 In the future plants that can

operate directly on the seabed at depths of

several thousand meters will likely play an

increased role as well Suitable technologies

could revolutionize the offshore mining of natural

gas and oil and be far more cost effective than

todays platform-based plants

One of the largest fossil energy sources is

methane hydrate Countries investing most on

researching this energy source are Japan and the

USA In 2013 Japanese scientists were able to

mine gas stored one kilometer below sea level

and buried more than 300 meters deep in the

seabed Commercial mining is supposed to

commence by 2018 Offshore methane hydrate

resources could provide Japan with energy for

more than 100 years17 There are still

technological hurdles to overcome In addition

mining harbors geological and ecological risks

In addition to providing a large supply of energy

sources the oceans are also an energy source

itself Energy from wave tide and current power

plants will become a more significant part of the

regenerative energy mix The future market

marine energy is interesting for established plant

manufacturers as well as for innovative start-ups

13

Between 2013 and 2020 the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide

18

Future Developments in Marine Economy

14

The Finnish company Minesto for example

developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite

tethered to the seabed which moves with the

ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine

and a generator19

Offshore wind power will grow to become one of

the largest segments in the market for renewable

energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an

increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030

Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos

wind power will more than double to a total of 14

billion Euro By 2020 global investments in

offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20

Maritime tourism will become more significant as

well Today about 24 million people work in the

field of coastal and ocean tourism of which

150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past

few years this market has experienced an

enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the

number of passengers rose from 12 million to

213 million world wide a total growth of 77

percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers

will increase by an additional three million to a

total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect

passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have

to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding

industry will profit The trend toward experience

travel will increase the demand for specialized

tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)

Within the premium travel segment mobile

islands underwater hotels and submarine travel

could be an interesting growth market The

company Deep Ocean Technology for example

develops technologies for underwater hotels

The hotel room segments can be lowered up to

30 meters below sea level Plans to implement

such a prestigious project are already in

existence25

Future Developments in Marine Economy

15

02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

16

The competition for the economic usage of

maritime space and coastal regions will intensify

For example offshore wind park operators

compete with fisheries for space neighboring

states in the Arctic fiercely compete for

resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone

and cruise ship companies fight for the best

berths and mooring times in the most attractive

port cities To the extent that the oceans become

more and more attractive because new

technologies make the oceans a more efficient

and comprehensive fountain of food resources

and energy countries and corporations will

increase their investments and activities to

develop and access this potential Considering

the continuous population growth and the

increasing shortages of resources in a worst

case scenario unresolved or overlapping

territorial claims could turn violent and provoke

political conflict For example China and other

neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the

Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea

where experts assume large sources of raw

materials

Marine economy particularly ocean trade is

strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world

economy The world wide financial crisis had led

to a significantly reduced demand for shipping

space as well as cancellations and decreased

orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the

container ship building industry particularly in

Asia the German ship building industry had to

restructure and refocus building offshore-

oriented specialty ships instead of container

ships26 The question is how long will it take for

suppliers from emerging countries particularly

from China to enter the market for tailor-made

ships and offer them at lower costs There are

dramatic changes in the balance of the world

economy Developing and emerging countries will

provide an ever larger portion of the workforce

capital technology and trade volume By 2050

experts predict growth beyond average for the

BRIC states Their share of the global social

product will grow significantly

Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges

17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets

27

As soon as ten years from now China might

replace the United States as the largest national

economy in the world Today China is already

the largest container market In addition Chinese

banks could push into the market of ship

financing while German banks reduced their

involvement in this sector following the financial

crises In the future German ship owners

interested in investing might be forced to seek

financing from Chinese banks This could have a

negative impact on the German supplier industry

The competition between individual ports will

also intensify in the future Because container

ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer

central ports will handle an ever growing portion

of the sea trade For example within the next

few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its

container business to the JadeWeser port in

Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that

is independent of the tides and therefore

attractive to giant freighters28 International

relations change too While Hamburg used to

be among the largest container ports in the

world today it ranks only in 16th place By now

six of the top ten ports in the world are in

China29

Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges

to maritime traffic Although we seem to have

skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the

mining maximum by the expansion and

increased economic viability of unconventional oil

mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil

boom likely only defers the problem to a later

time

There are no clear predictions since a decrease

of conventional oil mining will result in higher

investments in research and development of

unconventional oil resources The danger

remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will

increase continuously or at the very least be

volatile In addition modernizing refineries will

result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-

product although the demand will keep rising

For several years now ship owners have tried to

reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with

slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies

18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

19

Sustainability is becoming ever more significant

in all trades The discussion of climate protection

involves marine traffic as well Due to new

environmental regulations the shipping industry

will face major challenges in the coming years

Increased restrictions that limit the emission of

harmful substances will require the use of

expensive fuels or investment in new filtering

and propulsion technologies Among other things

this will lead to additional cost increases for

container freight30 In 2008 the International

Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits

for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease

of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the

current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In

emission control areas an even stricter limit of

10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to

01 percent by 201531

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

20

Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)

32

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

21

03Opportunities and

Future Markets

22

Economic globalization will continue in the

coming years Adjusted for price the value of the

world wide trade of goods will grow from ten

billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars

in 203033 This development will benefit the port

industry too This industry includes all activities

involved in the value creation process of loading

and unloading goods as well as the transfer of

ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and

2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year

to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will

grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By

2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50

percent within the European Union35

Improving site conditions will become ever more

important for the individual ports for example

increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces

or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks

and train The German government focuses

current investments on the expansion of seaward

access roads as well as effective inland

connections36 Globally the need for investments

in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40

billion Euro a year by 203037

Ports will also

benefit from the growth of marine power

production For example ports will play an

increasingly central role in the value chain of

offshore wind energy There are future

opportunities in the fields of montage transfer

and service38 However ports will have to invest

heavily to be able to expand their capacities

accordingly

The significance of automation and safety

technologies will increase due to the growing

transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on

data that create a network of all actors involved

in the port economy promise additional

efficiency To guarantee international

competitiveness the cooperation between

individual ports might become increasingly

relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of

the cooperation between ports in Northern

Germany to improve the port location Germany39

Opportunities and Future Markets

23Opportunities and Future Markets

By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year

40

24

The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the

marine economy It connects ports

transportation methods and companies and

guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and

people The development of the oceans as a

source of food natural resources and energy

increases the need for an expansion of offshore

infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms

at ever greater distances to the shore require

new foundations and basic structures Innovative

technological solutions can significantly

contribute to a more cost efficient operation of

such plants The demand for specialists to

transport and mount materials and components

on site will grow The market for offshore supply

ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in

2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is

an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage

of goods natural resources and energy on

specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring

great logistic advantages for loading and

unloading procedures42 The expansion of an

underwater infrastructure for power cables will

be important to the energy transport particularly

to the transport of renewable energies Within

the next ten years the number of underwater

high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of

30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater

power cable will connect Norway and Germany

helping to level green power fluctuations

Opportunities and challenges in the area of

marine economy boost numerous technological

developments Maritime technologies are a

separate future market within the area of marine

economy They are particularly important to the

fields of ship technology energy mining the

mining of natural resources and the expansion

of maritime infrastructure Additional applications

are in the areas of measurement environment

and security technology Intelligent and

autonomous systems that can operate in great

depths are highly significant44 The Canadian

start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean

Institute for Marine Science and Technology and

the British company Seabed Resources want to

use highly modern robots to mine natural

resources in the deep sea

Opportunities and Future Markets

robust

25Opportunities and Future Markets

Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45

intelligent

sustainable

autonomous

26

In the middle and long term the trend towards

intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence

shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or

trucks scientists all over the world work on

concepts that are supposed to one day make it

possible that ships cross the oceans by

themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center

for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg

are developing related technology The crew can

be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks

after several boats at the same time To make

unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion

technologies and concepts have to be developed

as well because todayrsquos engine technology

requires far too much maintenance46

Technical developments that make use of the

efficiency potential reduce emissions and the

destructive influence on marine ecosystems are

becoming increasingly important considering the

background of climate changes and new

regulations Innovative marine technologies may

help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea

mining maritime energy production and more47

The greatest potential for successful positioning

in the future market of marine economy develops

in places where high technology and sustainable

concepts meet

The shipping sector does not only research

increasingly efficient propulsion methods but

also alternative propulsion methods Liquid

natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant

in the future The American company Tote

Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-

fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-

propelled container ship The ship is supposed to

start operating in 201548 By 2030 international

ocean shipping could potentially be the largest

LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The

industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop

this future market by expanding appropriate

LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel

methanol shore power and hydrogen will most

likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or

niche transport Hybrid solutions however might

prevail in the long term at least New and

powerful methods of energy storage are an

important prerequisite50

Opportunities and Future Markets

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

Between 2010 and 2040 the amount of oil mined in the deep sea will increase by more than 150 percent

13

11Future Developments in Marine Economy

Future Developments in Marine Economy 12

Nautilus Minerals from Canada is the first

company planning the mining of massive sulfides

from the seabed14 Germany owns research

licenses for two areas in the Pacific

The future of energy production also lies in the

oceans Globally about one third of natural gas

and oil is mined in the ocean and the tendency

is increasing15 The dependence of the global

economy on fossil fuels has risen to a precarious

level Almost all industrialized countries have to

import oil to cover their needs While the global

use of oil keeps growing quickly experts fear

that the maximum might be reached soon The

mining of new power sources which thus far are

not economically viable and the development of

new mining technologies are becoming more

significant In order to mine oil and gas in the

deep sea swimming platforms for example will

be needed Between 2010 and 2030 their

number will more than double to a total of 600

world wide16 In the future plants that can

operate directly on the seabed at depths of

several thousand meters will likely play an

increased role as well Suitable technologies

could revolutionize the offshore mining of natural

gas and oil and be far more cost effective than

todays platform-based plants

One of the largest fossil energy sources is

methane hydrate Countries investing most on

researching this energy source are Japan and the

USA In 2013 Japanese scientists were able to

mine gas stored one kilometer below sea level

and buried more than 300 meters deep in the

seabed Commercial mining is supposed to

commence by 2018 Offshore methane hydrate

resources could provide Japan with energy for

more than 100 years17 There are still

technological hurdles to overcome In addition

mining harbors geological and ecological risks

In addition to providing a large supply of energy

sources the oceans are also an energy source

itself Energy from wave tide and current power

plants will become a more significant part of the

regenerative energy mix The future market

marine energy is interesting for established plant

manufacturers as well as for innovative start-ups

13

Between 2013 and 2020 the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide

18

Future Developments in Marine Economy

14

The Finnish company Minesto for example

developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite

tethered to the seabed which moves with the

ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine

and a generator19

Offshore wind power will grow to become one of

the largest segments in the market for renewable

energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an

increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030

Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos

wind power will more than double to a total of 14

billion Euro By 2020 global investments in

offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20

Maritime tourism will become more significant as

well Today about 24 million people work in the

field of coastal and ocean tourism of which

150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past

few years this market has experienced an

enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the

number of passengers rose from 12 million to

213 million world wide a total growth of 77

percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers

will increase by an additional three million to a

total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect

passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have

to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding

industry will profit The trend toward experience

travel will increase the demand for specialized

tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)

Within the premium travel segment mobile

islands underwater hotels and submarine travel

could be an interesting growth market The

company Deep Ocean Technology for example

develops technologies for underwater hotels

The hotel room segments can be lowered up to

30 meters below sea level Plans to implement

such a prestigious project are already in

existence25

Future Developments in Marine Economy

15

02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

16

The competition for the economic usage of

maritime space and coastal regions will intensify

For example offshore wind park operators

compete with fisheries for space neighboring

states in the Arctic fiercely compete for

resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone

and cruise ship companies fight for the best

berths and mooring times in the most attractive

port cities To the extent that the oceans become

more and more attractive because new

technologies make the oceans a more efficient

and comprehensive fountain of food resources

and energy countries and corporations will

increase their investments and activities to

develop and access this potential Considering

the continuous population growth and the

increasing shortages of resources in a worst

case scenario unresolved or overlapping

territorial claims could turn violent and provoke

political conflict For example China and other

neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the

Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea

where experts assume large sources of raw

materials

Marine economy particularly ocean trade is

strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world

economy The world wide financial crisis had led

to a significantly reduced demand for shipping

space as well as cancellations and decreased

orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the

container ship building industry particularly in

Asia the German ship building industry had to

restructure and refocus building offshore-

oriented specialty ships instead of container

ships26 The question is how long will it take for

suppliers from emerging countries particularly

from China to enter the market for tailor-made

ships and offer them at lower costs There are

dramatic changes in the balance of the world

economy Developing and emerging countries will

provide an ever larger portion of the workforce

capital technology and trade volume By 2050

experts predict growth beyond average for the

BRIC states Their share of the global social

product will grow significantly

Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges

17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets

27

As soon as ten years from now China might

replace the United States as the largest national

economy in the world Today China is already

the largest container market In addition Chinese

banks could push into the market of ship

financing while German banks reduced their

involvement in this sector following the financial

crises In the future German ship owners

interested in investing might be forced to seek

financing from Chinese banks This could have a

negative impact on the German supplier industry

The competition between individual ports will

also intensify in the future Because container

ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer

central ports will handle an ever growing portion

of the sea trade For example within the next

few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its

container business to the JadeWeser port in

Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that

is independent of the tides and therefore

attractive to giant freighters28 International

relations change too While Hamburg used to

be among the largest container ports in the

world today it ranks only in 16th place By now

six of the top ten ports in the world are in

China29

Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges

to maritime traffic Although we seem to have

skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the

mining maximum by the expansion and

increased economic viability of unconventional oil

mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil

boom likely only defers the problem to a later

time

There are no clear predictions since a decrease

of conventional oil mining will result in higher

investments in research and development of

unconventional oil resources The danger

remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will

increase continuously or at the very least be

volatile In addition modernizing refineries will

result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-

product although the demand will keep rising

For several years now ship owners have tried to

reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with

slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies

18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

19

Sustainability is becoming ever more significant

in all trades The discussion of climate protection

involves marine traffic as well Due to new

environmental regulations the shipping industry

will face major challenges in the coming years

Increased restrictions that limit the emission of

harmful substances will require the use of

expensive fuels or investment in new filtering

and propulsion technologies Among other things

this will lead to additional cost increases for

container freight30 In 2008 the International

Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits

for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease

of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the

current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In

emission control areas an even stricter limit of

10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to

01 percent by 201531

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

20

Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)

32

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

21

03Opportunities and

Future Markets

22

Economic globalization will continue in the

coming years Adjusted for price the value of the

world wide trade of goods will grow from ten

billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars

in 203033 This development will benefit the port

industry too This industry includes all activities

involved in the value creation process of loading

and unloading goods as well as the transfer of

ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and

2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year

to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will

grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By

2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50

percent within the European Union35

Improving site conditions will become ever more

important for the individual ports for example

increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces

or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks

and train The German government focuses

current investments on the expansion of seaward

access roads as well as effective inland

connections36 Globally the need for investments

in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40

billion Euro a year by 203037

Ports will also

benefit from the growth of marine power

production For example ports will play an

increasingly central role in the value chain of

offshore wind energy There are future

opportunities in the fields of montage transfer

and service38 However ports will have to invest

heavily to be able to expand their capacities

accordingly

The significance of automation and safety

technologies will increase due to the growing

transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on

data that create a network of all actors involved

in the port economy promise additional

efficiency To guarantee international

competitiveness the cooperation between

individual ports might become increasingly

relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of

the cooperation between ports in Northern

Germany to improve the port location Germany39

Opportunities and Future Markets

23Opportunities and Future Markets

By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year

40

24

The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the

marine economy It connects ports

transportation methods and companies and

guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and

people The development of the oceans as a

source of food natural resources and energy

increases the need for an expansion of offshore

infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms

at ever greater distances to the shore require

new foundations and basic structures Innovative

technological solutions can significantly

contribute to a more cost efficient operation of

such plants The demand for specialists to

transport and mount materials and components

on site will grow The market for offshore supply

ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in

2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is

an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage

of goods natural resources and energy on

specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring

great logistic advantages for loading and

unloading procedures42 The expansion of an

underwater infrastructure for power cables will

be important to the energy transport particularly

to the transport of renewable energies Within

the next ten years the number of underwater

high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of

30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater

power cable will connect Norway and Germany

helping to level green power fluctuations

Opportunities and challenges in the area of

marine economy boost numerous technological

developments Maritime technologies are a

separate future market within the area of marine

economy They are particularly important to the

fields of ship technology energy mining the

mining of natural resources and the expansion

of maritime infrastructure Additional applications

are in the areas of measurement environment

and security technology Intelligent and

autonomous systems that can operate in great

depths are highly significant44 The Canadian

start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean

Institute for Marine Science and Technology and

the British company Seabed Resources want to

use highly modern robots to mine natural

resources in the deep sea

Opportunities and Future Markets

robust

25Opportunities and Future Markets

Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45

intelligent

sustainable

autonomous

26

In the middle and long term the trend towards

intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence

shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or

trucks scientists all over the world work on

concepts that are supposed to one day make it

possible that ships cross the oceans by

themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center

for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg

are developing related technology The crew can

be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks

after several boats at the same time To make

unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion

technologies and concepts have to be developed

as well because todayrsquos engine technology

requires far too much maintenance46

Technical developments that make use of the

efficiency potential reduce emissions and the

destructive influence on marine ecosystems are

becoming increasingly important considering the

background of climate changes and new

regulations Innovative marine technologies may

help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea

mining maritime energy production and more47

The greatest potential for successful positioning

in the future market of marine economy develops

in places where high technology and sustainable

concepts meet

The shipping sector does not only research

increasingly efficient propulsion methods but

also alternative propulsion methods Liquid

natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant

in the future The American company Tote

Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-

fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-

propelled container ship The ship is supposed to

start operating in 201548 By 2030 international

ocean shipping could potentially be the largest

LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The

industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop

this future market by expanding appropriate

LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel

methanol shore power and hydrogen will most

likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or

niche transport Hybrid solutions however might

prevail in the long term at least New and

powerful methods of energy storage are an

important prerequisite50

Opportunities and Future Markets

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

Future Developments in Marine Economy 12

Nautilus Minerals from Canada is the first

company planning the mining of massive sulfides

from the seabed14 Germany owns research

licenses for two areas in the Pacific

The future of energy production also lies in the

oceans Globally about one third of natural gas

and oil is mined in the ocean and the tendency

is increasing15 The dependence of the global

economy on fossil fuels has risen to a precarious

level Almost all industrialized countries have to

import oil to cover their needs While the global

use of oil keeps growing quickly experts fear

that the maximum might be reached soon The

mining of new power sources which thus far are

not economically viable and the development of

new mining technologies are becoming more

significant In order to mine oil and gas in the

deep sea swimming platforms for example will

be needed Between 2010 and 2030 their

number will more than double to a total of 600

world wide16 In the future plants that can

operate directly on the seabed at depths of

several thousand meters will likely play an

increased role as well Suitable technologies

could revolutionize the offshore mining of natural

gas and oil and be far more cost effective than

todays platform-based plants

One of the largest fossil energy sources is

methane hydrate Countries investing most on

researching this energy source are Japan and the

USA In 2013 Japanese scientists were able to

mine gas stored one kilometer below sea level

and buried more than 300 meters deep in the

seabed Commercial mining is supposed to

commence by 2018 Offshore methane hydrate

resources could provide Japan with energy for

more than 100 years17 There are still

technological hurdles to overcome In addition

mining harbors geological and ecological risks

In addition to providing a large supply of energy

sources the oceans are also an energy source

itself Energy from wave tide and current power

plants will become a more significant part of the

regenerative energy mix The future market

marine energy is interesting for established plant

manufacturers as well as for innovative start-ups

13

Between 2013 and 2020 the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide

18

Future Developments in Marine Economy

14

The Finnish company Minesto for example

developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite

tethered to the seabed which moves with the

ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine

and a generator19

Offshore wind power will grow to become one of

the largest segments in the market for renewable

energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an

increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030

Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos

wind power will more than double to a total of 14

billion Euro By 2020 global investments in

offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20

Maritime tourism will become more significant as

well Today about 24 million people work in the

field of coastal and ocean tourism of which

150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past

few years this market has experienced an

enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the

number of passengers rose from 12 million to

213 million world wide a total growth of 77

percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers

will increase by an additional three million to a

total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect

passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have

to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding

industry will profit The trend toward experience

travel will increase the demand for specialized

tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)

Within the premium travel segment mobile

islands underwater hotels and submarine travel

could be an interesting growth market The

company Deep Ocean Technology for example

develops technologies for underwater hotels

The hotel room segments can be lowered up to

30 meters below sea level Plans to implement

such a prestigious project are already in

existence25

Future Developments in Marine Economy

15

02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

16

The competition for the economic usage of

maritime space and coastal regions will intensify

For example offshore wind park operators

compete with fisheries for space neighboring

states in the Arctic fiercely compete for

resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone

and cruise ship companies fight for the best

berths and mooring times in the most attractive

port cities To the extent that the oceans become

more and more attractive because new

technologies make the oceans a more efficient

and comprehensive fountain of food resources

and energy countries and corporations will

increase their investments and activities to

develop and access this potential Considering

the continuous population growth and the

increasing shortages of resources in a worst

case scenario unresolved or overlapping

territorial claims could turn violent and provoke

political conflict For example China and other

neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the

Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea

where experts assume large sources of raw

materials

Marine economy particularly ocean trade is

strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world

economy The world wide financial crisis had led

to a significantly reduced demand for shipping

space as well as cancellations and decreased

orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the

container ship building industry particularly in

Asia the German ship building industry had to

restructure and refocus building offshore-

oriented specialty ships instead of container

ships26 The question is how long will it take for

suppliers from emerging countries particularly

from China to enter the market for tailor-made

ships and offer them at lower costs There are

dramatic changes in the balance of the world

economy Developing and emerging countries will

provide an ever larger portion of the workforce

capital technology and trade volume By 2050

experts predict growth beyond average for the

BRIC states Their share of the global social

product will grow significantly

Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges

17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets

27

As soon as ten years from now China might

replace the United States as the largest national

economy in the world Today China is already

the largest container market In addition Chinese

banks could push into the market of ship

financing while German banks reduced their

involvement in this sector following the financial

crises In the future German ship owners

interested in investing might be forced to seek

financing from Chinese banks This could have a

negative impact on the German supplier industry

The competition between individual ports will

also intensify in the future Because container

ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer

central ports will handle an ever growing portion

of the sea trade For example within the next

few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its

container business to the JadeWeser port in

Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that

is independent of the tides and therefore

attractive to giant freighters28 International

relations change too While Hamburg used to

be among the largest container ports in the

world today it ranks only in 16th place By now

six of the top ten ports in the world are in

China29

Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges

to maritime traffic Although we seem to have

skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the

mining maximum by the expansion and

increased economic viability of unconventional oil

mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil

boom likely only defers the problem to a later

time

There are no clear predictions since a decrease

of conventional oil mining will result in higher

investments in research and development of

unconventional oil resources The danger

remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will

increase continuously or at the very least be

volatile In addition modernizing refineries will

result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-

product although the demand will keep rising

For several years now ship owners have tried to

reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with

slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies

18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

19

Sustainability is becoming ever more significant

in all trades The discussion of climate protection

involves marine traffic as well Due to new

environmental regulations the shipping industry

will face major challenges in the coming years

Increased restrictions that limit the emission of

harmful substances will require the use of

expensive fuels or investment in new filtering

and propulsion technologies Among other things

this will lead to additional cost increases for

container freight30 In 2008 the International

Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits

for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease

of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the

current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In

emission control areas an even stricter limit of

10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to

01 percent by 201531

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

20

Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)

32

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

21

03Opportunities and

Future Markets

22

Economic globalization will continue in the

coming years Adjusted for price the value of the

world wide trade of goods will grow from ten

billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars

in 203033 This development will benefit the port

industry too This industry includes all activities

involved in the value creation process of loading

and unloading goods as well as the transfer of

ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and

2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year

to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will

grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By

2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50

percent within the European Union35

Improving site conditions will become ever more

important for the individual ports for example

increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces

or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks

and train The German government focuses

current investments on the expansion of seaward

access roads as well as effective inland

connections36 Globally the need for investments

in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40

billion Euro a year by 203037

Ports will also

benefit from the growth of marine power

production For example ports will play an

increasingly central role in the value chain of

offshore wind energy There are future

opportunities in the fields of montage transfer

and service38 However ports will have to invest

heavily to be able to expand their capacities

accordingly

The significance of automation and safety

technologies will increase due to the growing

transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on

data that create a network of all actors involved

in the port economy promise additional

efficiency To guarantee international

competitiveness the cooperation between

individual ports might become increasingly

relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of

the cooperation between ports in Northern

Germany to improve the port location Germany39

Opportunities and Future Markets

23Opportunities and Future Markets

By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year

40

24

The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the

marine economy It connects ports

transportation methods and companies and

guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and

people The development of the oceans as a

source of food natural resources and energy

increases the need for an expansion of offshore

infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms

at ever greater distances to the shore require

new foundations and basic structures Innovative

technological solutions can significantly

contribute to a more cost efficient operation of

such plants The demand for specialists to

transport and mount materials and components

on site will grow The market for offshore supply

ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in

2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is

an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage

of goods natural resources and energy on

specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring

great logistic advantages for loading and

unloading procedures42 The expansion of an

underwater infrastructure for power cables will

be important to the energy transport particularly

to the transport of renewable energies Within

the next ten years the number of underwater

high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of

30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater

power cable will connect Norway and Germany

helping to level green power fluctuations

Opportunities and challenges in the area of

marine economy boost numerous technological

developments Maritime technologies are a

separate future market within the area of marine

economy They are particularly important to the

fields of ship technology energy mining the

mining of natural resources and the expansion

of maritime infrastructure Additional applications

are in the areas of measurement environment

and security technology Intelligent and

autonomous systems that can operate in great

depths are highly significant44 The Canadian

start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean

Institute for Marine Science and Technology and

the British company Seabed Resources want to

use highly modern robots to mine natural

resources in the deep sea

Opportunities and Future Markets

robust

25Opportunities and Future Markets

Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45

intelligent

sustainable

autonomous

26

In the middle and long term the trend towards

intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence

shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or

trucks scientists all over the world work on

concepts that are supposed to one day make it

possible that ships cross the oceans by

themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center

for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg

are developing related technology The crew can

be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks

after several boats at the same time To make

unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion

technologies and concepts have to be developed

as well because todayrsquos engine technology

requires far too much maintenance46

Technical developments that make use of the

efficiency potential reduce emissions and the

destructive influence on marine ecosystems are

becoming increasingly important considering the

background of climate changes and new

regulations Innovative marine technologies may

help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea

mining maritime energy production and more47

The greatest potential for successful positioning

in the future market of marine economy develops

in places where high technology and sustainable

concepts meet

The shipping sector does not only research

increasingly efficient propulsion methods but

also alternative propulsion methods Liquid

natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant

in the future The American company Tote

Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-

fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-

propelled container ship The ship is supposed to

start operating in 201548 By 2030 international

ocean shipping could potentially be the largest

LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The

industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop

this future market by expanding appropriate

LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel

methanol shore power and hydrogen will most

likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or

niche transport Hybrid solutions however might

prevail in the long term at least New and

powerful methods of energy storage are an

important prerequisite50

Opportunities and Future Markets

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

13

Between 2013 and 2020 the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide

18

Future Developments in Marine Economy

14

The Finnish company Minesto for example

developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite

tethered to the seabed which moves with the

ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine

and a generator19

Offshore wind power will grow to become one of

the largest segments in the market for renewable

energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an

increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030

Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos

wind power will more than double to a total of 14

billion Euro By 2020 global investments in

offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20

Maritime tourism will become more significant as

well Today about 24 million people work in the

field of coastal and ocean tourism of which

150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past

few years this market has experienced an

enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the

number of passengers rose from 12 million to

213 million world wide a total growth of 77

percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers

will increase by an additional three million to a

total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect

passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have

to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding

industry will profit The trend toward experience

travel will increase the demand for specialized

tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)

Within the premium travel segment mobile

islands underwater hotels and submarine travel

could be an interesting growth market The

company Deep Ocean Technology for example

develops technologies for underwater hotels

The hotel room segments can be lowered up to

30 meters below sea level Plans to implement

such a prestigious project are already in

existence25

Future Developments in Marine Economy

15

02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

16

The competition for the economic usage of

maritime space and coastal regions will intensify

For example offshore wind park operators

compete with fisheries for space neighboring

states in the Arctic fiercely compete for

resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone

and cruise ship companies fight for the best

berths and mooring times in the most attractive

port cities To the extent that the oceans become

more and more attractive because new

technologies make the oceans a more efficient

and comprehensive fountain of food resources

and energy countries and corporations will

increase their investments and activities to

develop and access this potential Considering

the continuous population growth and the

increasing shortages of resources in a worst

case scenario unresolved or overlapping

territorial claims could turn violent and provoke

political conflict For example China and other

neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the

Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea

where experts assume large sources of raw

materials

Marine economy particularly ocean trade is

strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world

economy The world wide financial crisis had led

to a significantly reduced demand for shipping

space as well as cancellations and decreased

orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the

container ship building industry particularly in

Asia the German ship building industry had to

restructure and refocus building offshore-

oriented specialty ships instead of container

ships26 The question is how long will it take for

suppliers from emerging countries particularly

from China to enter the market for tailor-made

ships and offer them at lower costs There are

dramatic changes in the balance of the world

economy Developing and emerging countries will

provide an ever larger portion of the workforce

capital technology and trade volume By 2050

experts predict growth beyond average for the

BRIC states Their share of the global social

product will grow significantly

Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges

17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets

27

As soon as ten years from now China might

replace the United States as the largest national

economy in the world Today China is already

the largest container market In addition Chinese

banks could push into the market of ship

financing while German banks reduced their

involvement in this sector following the financial

crises In the future German ship owners

interested in investing might be forced to seek

financing from Chinese banks This could have a

negative impact on the German supplier industry

The competition between individual ports will

also intensify in the future Because container

ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer

central ports will handle an ever growing portion

of the sea trade For example within the next

few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its

container business to the JadeWeser port in

Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that

is independent of the tides and therefore

attractive to giant freighters28 International

relations change too While Hamburg used to

be among the largest container ports in the

world today it ranks only in 16th place By now

six of the top ten ports in the world are in

China29

Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges

to maritime traffic Although we seem to have

skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the

mining maximum by the expansion and

increased economic viability of unconventional oil

mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil

boom likely only defers the problem to a later

time

There are no clear predictions since a decrease

of conventional oil mining will result in higher

investments in research and development of

unconventional oil resources The danger

remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will

increase continuously or at the very least be

volatile In addition modernizing refineries will

result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-

product although the demand will keep rising

For several years now ship owners have tried to

reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with

slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies

18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

19

Sustainability is becoming ever more significant

in all trades The discussion of climate protection

involves marine traffic as well Due to new

environmental regulations the shipping industry

will face major challenges in the coming years

Increased restrictions that limit the emission of

harmful substances will require the use of

expensive fuels or investment in new filtering

and propulsion technologies Among other things

this will lead to additional cost increases for

container freight30 In 2008 the International

Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits

for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease

of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the

current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In

emission control areas an even stricter limit of

10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to

01 percent by 201531

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

20

Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)

32

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

21

03Opportunities and

Future Markets

22

Economic globalization will continue in the

coming years Adjusted for price the value of the

world wide trade of goods will grow from ten

billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars

in 203033 This development will benefit the port

industry too This industry includes all activities

involved in the value creation process of loading

and unloading goods as well as the transfer of

ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and

2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year

to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will

grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By

2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50

percent within the European Union35

Improving site conditions will become ever more

important for the individual ports for example

increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces

or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks

and train The German government focuses

current investments on the expansion of seaward

access roads as well as effective inland

connections36 Globally the need for investments

in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40

billion Euro a year by 203037

Ports will also

benefit from the growth of marine power

production For example ports will play an

increasingly central role in the value chain of

offshore wind energy There are future

opportunities in the fields of montage transfer

and service38 However ports will have to invest

heavily to be able to expand their capacities

accordingly

The significance of automation and safety

technologies will increase due to the growing

transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on

data that create a network of all actors involved

in the port economy promise additional

efficiency To guarantee international

competitiveness the cooperation between

individual ports might become increasingly

relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of

the cooperation between ports in Northern

Germany to improve the port location Germany39

Opportunities and Future Markets

23Opportunities and Future Markets

By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year

40

24

The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the

marine economy It connects ports

transportation methods and companies and

guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and

people The development of the oceans as a

source of food natural resources and energy

increases the need for an expansion of offshore

infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms

at ever greater distances to the shore require

new foundations and basic structures Innovative

technological solutions can significantly

contribute to a more cost efficient operation of

such plants The demand for specialists to

transport and mount materials and components

on site will grow The market for offshore supply

ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in

2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is

an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage

of goods natural resources and energy on

specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring

great logistic advantages for loading and

unloading procedures42 The expansion of an

underwater infrastructure for power cables will

be important to the energy transport particularly

to the transport of renewable energies Within

the next ten years the number of underwater

high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of

30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater

power cable will connect Norway and Germany

helping to level green power fluctuations

Opportunities and challenges in the area of

marine economy boost numerous technological

developments Maritime technologies are a

separate future market within the area of marine

economy They are particularly important to the

fields of ship technology energy mining the

mining of natural resources and the expansion

of maritime infrastructure Additional applications

are in the areas of measurement environment

and security technology Intelligent and

autonomous systems that can operate in great

depths are highly significant44 The Canadian

start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean

Institute for Marine Science and Technology and

the British company Seabed Resources want to

use highly modern robots to mine natural

resources in the deep sea

Opportunities and Future Markets

robust

25Opportunities and Future Markets

Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45

intelligent

sustainable

autonomous

26

In the middle and long term the trend towards

intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence

shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or

trucks scientists all over the world work on

concepts that are supposed to one day make it

possible that ships cross the oceans by

themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center

for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg

are developing related technology The crew can

be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks

after several boats at the same time To make

unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion

technologies and concepts have to be developed

as well because todayrsquos engine technology

requires far too much maintenance46

Technical developments that make use of the

efficiency potential reduce emissions and the

destructive influence on marine ecosystems are

becoming increasingly important considering the

background of climate changes and new

regulations Innovative marine technologies may

help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea

mining maritime energy production and more47

The greatest potential for successful positioning

in the future market of marine economy develops

in places where high technology and sustainable

concepts meet

The shipping sector does not only research

increasingly efficient propulsion methods but

also alternative propulsion methods Liquid

natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant

in the future The American company Tote

Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-

fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-

propelled container ship The ship is supposed to

start operating in 201548 By 2030 international

ocean shipping could potentially be the largest

LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The

industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop

this future market by expanding appropriate

LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel

methanol shore power and hydrogen will most

likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or

niche transport Hybrid solutions however might

prevail in the long term at least New and

powerful methods of energy storage are an

important prerequisite50

Opportunities and Future Markets

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

14

The Finnish company Minesto for example

developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite

tethered to the seabed which moves with the

ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine

and a generator19

Offshore wind power will grow to become one of

the largest segments in the market for renewable

energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an

increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030

Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos

wind power will more than double to a total of 14

billion Euro By 2020 global investments in

offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20

Maritime tourism will become more significant as

well Today about 24 million people work in the

field of coastal and ocean tourism of which

150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past

few years this market has experienced an

enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the

number of passengers rose from 12 million to

213 million world wide a total growth of 77

percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers

will increase by an additional three million to a

total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect

passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have

to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding

industry will profit The trend toward experience

travel will increase the demand for specialized

tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)

Within the premium travel segment mobile

islands underwater hotels and submarine travel

could be an interesting growth market The

company Deep Ocean Technology for example

develops technologies for underwater hotels

The hotel room segments can be lowered up to

30 meters below sea level Plans to implement

such a prestigious project are already in

existence25

Future Developments in Marine Economy

15

02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

16

The competition for the economic usage of

maritime space and coastal regions will intensify

For example offshore wind park operators

compete with fisheries for space neighboring

states in the Arctic fiercely compete for

resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone

and cruise ship companies fight for the best

berths and mooring times in the most attractive

port cities To the extent that the oceans become

more and more attractive because new

technologies make the oceans a more efficient

and comprehensive fountain of food resources

and energy countries and corporations will

increase their investments and activities to

develop and access this potential Considering

the continuous population growth and the

increasing shortages of resources in a worst

case scenario unresolved or overlapping

territorial claims could turn violent and provoke

political conflict For example China and other

neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the

Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea

where experts assume large sources of raw

materials

Marine economy particularly ocean trade is

strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world

economy The world wide financial crisis had led

to a significantly reduced demand for shipping

space as well as cancellations and decreased

orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the

container ship building industry particularly in

Asia the German ship building industry had to

restructure and refocus building offshore-

oriented specialty ships instead of container

ships26 The question is how long will it take for

suppliers from emerging countries particularly

from China to enter the market for tailor-made

ships and offer them at lower costs There are

dramatic changes in the balance of the world

economy Developing and emerging countries will

provide an ever larger portion of the workforce

capital technology and trade volume By 2050

experts predict growth beyond average for the

BRIC states Their share of the global social

product will grow significantly

Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges

17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets

27

As soon as ten years from now China might

replace the United States as the largest national

economy in the world Today China is already

the largest container market In addition Chinese

banks could push into the market of ship

financing while German banks reduced their

involvement in this sector following the financial

crises In the future German ship owners

interested in investing might be forced to seek

financing from Chinese banks This could have a

negative impact on the German supplier industry

The competition between individual ports will

also intensify in the future Because container

ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer

central ports will handle an ever growing portion

of the sea trade For example within the next

few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its

container business to the JadeWeser port in

Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that

is independent of the tides and therefore

attractive to giant freighters28 International

relations change too While Hamburg used to

be among the largest container ports in the

world today it ranks only in 16th place By now

six of the top ten ports in the world are in

China29

Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges

to maritime traffic Although we seem to have

skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the

mining maximum by the expansion and

increased economic viability of unconventional oil

mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil

boom likely only defers the problem to a later

time

There are no clear predictions since a decrease

of conventional oil mining will result in higher

investments in research and development of

unconventional oil resources The danger

remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will

increase continuously or at the very least be

volatile In addition modernizing refineries will

result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-

product although the demand will keep rising

For several years now ship owners have tried to

reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with

slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies

18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

19

Sustainability is becoming ever more significant

in all trades The discussion of climate protection

involves marine traffic as well Due to new

environmental regulations the shipping industry

will face major challenges in the coming years

Increased restrictions that limit the emission of

harmful substances will require the use of

expensive fuels or investment in new filtering

and propulsion technologies Among other things

this will lead to additional cost increases for

container freight30 In 2008 the International

Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits

for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease

of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the

current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In

emission control areas an even stricter limit of

10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to

01 percent by 201531

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

20

Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)

32

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

21

03Opportunities and

Future Markets

22

Economic globalization will continue in the

coming years Adjusted for price the value of the

world wide trade of goods will grow from ten

billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars

in 203033 This development will benefit the port

industry too This industry includes all activities

involved in the value creation process of loading

and unloading goods as well as the transfer of

ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and

2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year

to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will

grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By

2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50

percent within the European Union35

Improving site conditions will become ever more

important for the individual ports for example

increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces

or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks

and train The German government focuses

current investments on the expansion of seaward

access roads as well as effective inland

connections36 Globally the need for investments

in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40

billion Euro a year by 203037

Ports will also

benefit from the growth of marine power

production For example ports will play an

increasingly central role in the value chain of

offshore wind energy There are future

opportunities in the fields of montage transfer

and service38 However ports will have to invest

heavily to be able to expand their capacities

accordingly

The significance of automation and safety

technologies will increase due to the growing

transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on

data that create a network of all actors involved

in the port economy promise additional

efficiency To guarantee international

competitiveness the cooperation between

individual ports might become increasingly

relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of

the cooperation between ports in Northern

Germany to improve the port location Germany39

Opportunities and Future Markets

23Opportunities and Future Markets

By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year

40

24

The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the

marine economy It connects ports

transportation methods and companies and

guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and

people The development of the oceans as a

source of food natural resources and energy

increases the need for an expansion of offshore

infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms

at ever greater distances to the shore require

new foundations and basic structures Innovative

technological solutions can significantly

contribute to a more cost efficient operation of

such plants The demand for specialists to

transport and mount materials and components

on site will grow The market for offshore supply

ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in

2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is

an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage

of goods natural resources and energy on

specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring

great logistic advantages for loading and

unloading procedures42 The expansion of an

underwater infrastructure for power cables will

be important to the energy transport particularly

to the transport of renewable energies Within

the next ten years the number of underwater

high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of

30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater

power cable will connect Norway and Germany

helping to level green power fluctuations

Opportunities and challenges in the area of

marine economy boost numerous technological

developments Maritime technologies are a

separate future market within the area of marine

economy They are particularly important to the

fields of ship technology energy mining the

mining of natural resources and the expansion

of maritime infrastructure Additional applications

are in the areas of measurement environment

and security technology Intelligent and

autonomous systems that can operate in great

depths are highly significant44 The Canadian

start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean

Institute for Marine Science and Technology and

the British company Seabed Resources want to

use highly modern robots to mine natural

resources in the deep sea

Opportunities and Future Markets

robust

25Opportunities and Future Markets

Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45

intelligent

sustainable

autonomous

26

In the middle and long term the trend towards

intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence

shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or

trucks scientists all over the world work on

concepts that are supposed to one day make it

possible that ships cross the oceans by

themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center

for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg

are developing related technology The crew can

be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks

after several boats at the same time To make

unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion

technologies and concepts have to be developed

as well because todayrsquos engine technology

requires far too much maintenance46

Technical developments that make use of the

efficiency potential reduce emissions and the

destructive influence on marine ecosystems are

becoming increasingly important considering the

background of climate changes and new

regulations Innovative marine technologies may

help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea

mining maritime energy production and more47

The greatest potential for successful positioning

in the future market of marine economy develops

in places where high technology and sustainable

concepts meet

The shipping sector does not only research

increasingly efficient propulsion methods but

also alternative propulsion methods Liquid

natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant

in the future The American company Tote

Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-

fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-

propelled container ship The ship is supposed to

start operating in 201548 By 2030 international

ocean shipping could potentially be the largest

LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The

industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop

this future market by expanding appropriate

LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel

methanol shore power and hydrogen will most

likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or

niche transport Hybrid solutions however might

prevail in the long term at least New and

powerful methods of energy storage are an

important prerequisite50

Opportunities and Future Markets

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

15

02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

16

The competition for the economic usage of

maritime space and coastal regions will intensify

For example offshore wind park operators

compete with fisheries for space neighboring

states in the Arctic fiercely compete for

resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone

and cruise ship companies fight for the best

berths and mooring times in the most attractive

port cities To the extent that the oceans become

more and more attractive because new

technologies make the oceans a more efficient

and comprehensive fountain of food resources

and energy countries and corporations will

increase their investments and activities to

develop and access this potential Considering

the continuous population growth and the

increasing shortages of resources in a worst

case scenario unresolved or overlapping

territorial claims could turn violent and provoke

political conflict For example China and other

neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the

Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea

where experts assume large sources of raw

materials

Marine economy particularly ocean trade is

strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world

economy The world wide financial crisis had led

to a significantly reduced demand for shipping

space as well as cancellations and decreased

orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the

container ship building industry particularly in

Asia the German ship building industry had to

restructure and refocus building offshore-

oriented specialty ships instead of container

ships26 The question is how long will it take for

suppliers from emerging countries particularly

from China to enter the market for tailor-made

ships and offer them at lower costs There are

dramatic changes in the balance of the world

economy Developing and emerging countries will

provide an ever larger portion of the workforce

capital technology and trade volume By 2050

experts predict growth beyond average for the

BRIC states Their share of the global social

product will grow significantly

Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges

17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets

27

As soon as ten years from now China might

replace the United States as the largest national

economy in the world Today China is already

the largest container market In addition Chinese

banks could push into the market of ship

financing while German banks reduced their

involvement in this sector following the financial

crises In the future German ship owners

interested in investing might be forced to seek

financing from Chinese banks This could have a

negative impact on the German supplier industry

The competition between individual ports will

also intensify in the future Because container

ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer

central ports will handle an ever growing portion

of the sea trade For example within the next

few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its

container business to the JadeWeser port in

Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that

is independent of the tides and therefore

attractive to giant freighters28 International

relations change too While Hamburg used to

be among the largest container ports in the

world today it ranks only in 16th place By now

six of the top ten ports in the world are in

China29

Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges

to maritime traffic Although we seem to have

skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the

mining maximum by the expansion and

increased economic viability of unconventional oil

mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil

boom likely only defers the problem to a later

time

There are no clear predictions since a decrease

of conventional oil mining will result in higher

investments in research and development of

unconventional oil resources The danger

remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will

increase continuously or at the very least be

volatile In addition modernizing refineries will

result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-

product although the demand will keep rising

For several years now ship owners have tried to

reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with

slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies

18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

19

Sustainability is becoming ever more significant

in all trades The discussion of climate protection

involves marine traffic as well Due to new

environmental regulations the shipping industry

will face major challenges in the coming years

Increased restrictions that limit the emission of

harmful substances will require the use of

expensive fuels or investment in new filtering

and propulsion technologies Among other things

this will lead to additional cost increases for

container freight30 In 2008 the International

Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits

for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease

of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the

current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In

emission control areas an even stricter limit of

10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to

01 percent by 201531

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

20

Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)

32

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

21

03Opportunities and

Future Markets

22

Economic globalization will continue in the

coming years Adjusted for price the value of the

world wide trade of goods will grow from ten

billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars

in 203033 This development will benefit the port

industry too This industry includes all activities

involved in the value creation process of loading

and unloading goods as well as the transfer of

ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and

2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year

to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will

grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By

2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50

percent within the European Union35

Improving site conditions will become ever more

important for the individual ports for example

increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces

or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks

and train The German government focuses

current investments on the expansion of seaward

access roads as well as effective inland

connections36 Globally the need for investments

in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40

billion Euro a year by 203037

Ports will also

benefit from the growth of marine power

production For example ports will play an

increasingly central role in the value chain of

offshore wind energy There are future

opportunities in the fields of montage transfer

and service38 However ports will have to invest

heavily to be able to expand their capacities

accordingly

The significance of automation and safety

technologies will increase due to the growing

transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on

data that create a network of all actors involved

in the port economy promise additional

efficiency To guarantee international

competitiveness the cooperation between

individual ports might become increasingly

relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of

the cooperation between ports in Northern

Germany to improve the port location Germany39

Opportunities and Future Markets

23Opportunities and Future Markets

By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year

40

24

The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the

marine economy It connects ports

transportation methods and companies and

guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and

people The development of the oceans as a

source of food natural resources and energy

increases the need for an expansion of offshore

infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms

at ever greater distances to the shore require

new foundations and basic structures Innovative

technological solutions can significantly

contribute to a more cost efficient operation of

such plants The demand for specialists to

transport and mount materials and components

on site will grow The market for offshore supply

ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in

2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is

an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage

of goods natural resources and energy on

specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring

great logistic advantages for loading and

unloading procedures42 The expansion of an

underwater infrastructure for power cables will

be important to the energy transport particularly

to the transport of renewable energies Within

the next ten years the number of underwater

high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of

30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater

power cable will connect Norway and Germany

helping to level green power fluctuations

Opportunities and challenges in the area of

marine economy boost numerous technological

developments Maritime technologies are a

separate future market within the area of marine

economy They are particularly important to the

fields of ship technology energy mining the

mining of natural resources and the expansion

of maritime infrastructure Additional applications

are in the areas of measurement environment

and security technology Intelligent and

autonomous systems that can operate in great

depths are highly significant44 The Canadian

start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean

Institute for Marine Science and Technology and

the British company Seabed Resources want to

use highly modern robots to mine natural

resources in the deep sea

Opportunities and Future Markets

robust

25Opportunities and Future Markets

Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45

intelligent

sustainable

autonomous

26

In the middle and long term the trend towards

intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence

shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or

trucks scientists all over the world work on

concepts that are supposed to one day make it

possible that ships cross the oceans by

themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center

for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg

are developing related technology The crew can

be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks

after several boats at the same time To make

unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion

technologies and concepts have to be developed

as well because todayrsquos engine technology

requires far too much maintenance46

Technical developments that make use of the

efficiency potential reduce emissions and the

destructive influence on marine ecosystems are

becoming increasingly important considering the

background of climate changes and new

regulations Innovative marine technologies may

help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea

mining maritime energy production and more47

The greatest potential for successful positioning

in the future market of marine economy develops

in places where high technology and sustainable

concepts meet

The shipping sector does not only research

increasingly efficient propulsion methods but

also alternative propulsion methods Liquid

natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant

in the future The American company Tote

Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-

fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-

propelled container ship The ship is supposed to

start operating in 201548 By 2030 international

ocean shipping could potentially be the largest

LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The

industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop

this future market by expanding appropriate

LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel

methanol shore power and hydrogen will most

likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or

niche transport Hybrid solutions however might

prevail in the long term at least New and

powerful methods of energy storage are an

important prerequisite50

Opportunities and Future Markets

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

16

The competition for the economic usage of

maritime space and coastal regions will intensify

For example offshore wind park operators

compete with fisheries for space neighboring

states in the Arctic fiercely compete for

resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone

and cruise ship companies fight for the best

berths and mooring times in the most attractive

port cities To the extent that the oceans become

more and more attractive because new

technologies make the oceans a more efficient

and comprehensive fountain of food resources

and energy countries and corporations will

increase their investments and activities to

develop and access this potential Considering

the continuous population growth and the

increasing shortages of resources in a worst

case scenario unresolved or overlapping

territorial claims could turn violent and provoke

political conflict For example China and other

neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the

Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea

where experts assume large sources of raw

materials

Marine economy particularly ocean trade is

strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world

economy The world wide financial crisis had led

to a significantly reduced demand for shipping

space as well as cancellations and decreased

orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the

container ship building industry particularly in

Asia the German ship building industry had to

restructure and refocus building offshore-

oriented specialty ships instead of container

ships26 The question is how long will it take for

suppliers from emerging countries particularly

from China to enter the market for tailor-made

ships and offer them at lower costs There are

dramatic changes in the balance of the world

economy Developing and emerging countries will

provide an ever larger portion of the workforce

capital technology and trade volume By 2050

experts predict growth beyond average for the

BRIC states Their share of the global social

product will grow significantly

Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges

17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets

27

As soon as ten years from now China might

replace the United States as the largest national

economy in the world Today China is already

the largest container market In addition Chinese

banks could push into the market of ship

financing while German banks reduced their

involvement in this sector following the financial

crises In the future German ship owners

interested in investing might be forced to seek

financing from Chinese banks This could have a

negative impact on the German supplier industry

The competition between individual ports will

also intensify in the future Because container

ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer

central ports will handle an ever growing portion

of the sea trade For example within the next

few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its

container business to the JadeWeser port in

Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that

is independent of the tides and therefore

attractive to giant freighters28 International

relations change too While Hamburg used to

be among the largest container ports in the

world today it ranks only in 16th place By now

six of the top ten ports in the world are in

China29

Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges

to maritime traffic Although we seem to have

skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the

mining maximum by the expansion and

increased economic viability of unconventional oil

mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil

boom likely only defers the problem to a later

time

There are no clear predictions since a decrease

of conventional oil mining will result in higher

investments in research and development of

unconventional oil resources The danger

remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will

increase continuously or at the very least be

volatile In addition modernizing refineries will

result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-

product although the demand will keep rising

For several years now ship owners have tried to

reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with

slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies

18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

19

Sustainability is becoming ever more significant

in all trades The discussion of climate protection

involves marine traffic as well Due to new

environmental regulations the shipping industry

will face major challenges in the coming years

Increased restrictions that limit the emission of

harmful substances will require the use of

expensive fuels or investment in new filtering

and propulsion technologies Among other things

this will lead to additional cost increases for

container freight30 In 2008 the International

Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits

for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease

of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the

current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In

emission control areas an even stricter limit of

10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to

01 percent by 201531

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

20

Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)

32

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

21

03Opportunities and

Future Markets

22

Economic globalization will continue in the

coming years Adjusted for price the value of the

world wide trade of goods will grow from ten

billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars

in 203033 This development will benefit the port

industry too This industry includes all activities

involved in the value creation process of loading

and unloading goods as well as the transfer of

ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and

2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year

to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will

grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By

2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50

percent within the European Union35

Improving site conditions will become ever more

important for the individual ports for example

increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces

or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks

and train The German government focuses

current investments on the expansion of seaward

access roads as well as effective inland

connections36 Globally the need for investments

in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40

billion Euro a year by 203037

Ports will also

benefit from the growth of marine power

production For example ports will play an

increasingly central role in the value chain of

offshore wind energy There are future

opportunities in the fields of montage transfer

and service38 However ports will have to invest

heavily to be able to expand their capacities

accordingly

The significance of automation and safety

technologies will increase due to the growing

transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on

data that create a network of all actors involved

in the port economy promise additional

efficiency To guarantee international

competitiveness the cooperation between

individual ports might become increasingly

relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of

the cooperation between ports in Northern

Germany to improve the port location Germany39

Opportunities and Future Markets

23Opportunities and Future Markets

By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year

40

24

The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the

marine economy It connects ports

transportation methods and companies and

guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and

people The development of the oceans as a

source of food natural resources and energy

increases the need for an expansion of offshore

infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms

at ever greater distances to the shore require

new foundations and basic structures Innovative

technological solutions can significantly

contribute to a more cost efficient operation of

such plants The demand for specialists to

transport and mount materials and components

on site will grow The market for offshore supply

ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in

2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is

an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage

of goods natural resources and energy on

specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring

great logistic advantages for loading and

unloading procedures42 The expansion of an

underwater infrastructure for power cables will

be important to the energy transport particularly

to the transport of renewable energies Within

the next ten years the number of underwater

high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of

30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater

power cable will connect Norway and Germany

helping to level green power fluctuations

Opportunities and challenges in the area of

marine economy boost numerous technological

developments Maritime technologies are a

separate future market within the area of marine

economy They are particularly important to the

fields of ship technology energy mining the

mining of natural resources and the expansion

of maritime infrastructure Additional applications

are in the areas of measurement environment

and security technology Intelligent and

autonomous systems that can operate in great

depths are highly significant44 The Canadian

start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean

Institute for Marine Science and Technology and

the British company Seabed Resources want to

use highly modern robots to mine natural

resources in the deep sea

Opportunities and Future Markets

robust

25Opportunities and Future Markets

Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45

intelligent

sustainable

autonomous

26

In the middle and long term the trend towards

intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence

shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or

trucks scientists all over the world work on

concepts that are supposed to one day make it

possible that ships cross the oceans by

themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center

for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg

are developing related technology The crew can

be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks

after several boats at the same time To make

unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion

technologies and concepts have to be developed

as well because todayrsquos engine technology

requires far too much maintenance46

Technical developments that make use of the

efficiency potential reduce emissions and the

destructive influence on marine ecosystems are

becoming increasingly important considering the

background of climate changes and new

regulations Innovative marine technologies may

help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea

mining maritime energy production and more47

The greatest potential for successful positioning

in the future market of marine economy develops

in places where high technology and sustainable

concepts meet

The shipping sector does not only research

increasingly efficient propulsion methods but

also alternative propulsion methods Liquid

natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant

in the future The American company Tote

Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-

fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-

propelled container ship The ship is supposed to

start operating in 201548 By 2030 international

ocean shipping could potentially be the largest

LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The

industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop

this future market by expanding appropriate

LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel

methanol shore power and hydrogen will most

likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or

niche transport Hybrid solutions however might

prevail in the long term at least New and

powerful methods of energy storage are an

important prerequisite50

Opportunities and Future Markets

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets

27

As soon as ten years from now China might

replace the United States as the largest national

economy in the world Today China is already

the largest container market In addition Chinese

banks could push into the market of ship

financing while German banks reduced their

involvement in this sector following the financial

crises In the future German ship owners

interested in investing might be forced to seek

financing from Chinese banks This could have a

negative impact on the German supplier industry

The competition between individual ports will

also intensify in the future Because container

ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer

central ports will handle an ever growing portion

of the sea trade For example within the next

few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its

container business to the JadeWeser port in

Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that

is independent of the tides and therefore

attractive to giant freighters28 International

relations change too While Hamburg used to

be among the largest container ports in the

world today it ranks only in 16th place By now

six of the top ten ports in the world are in

China29

Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges

to maritime traffic Although we seem to have

skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the

mining maximum by the expansion and

increased economic viability of unconventional oil

mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil

boom likely only defers the problem to a later

time

There are no clear predictions since a decrease

of conventional oil mining will result in higher

investments in research and development of

unconventional oil resources The danger

remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will

increase continuously or at the very least be

volatile In addition modernizing refineries will

result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-

product although the demand will keep rising

For several years now ship owners have tried to

reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with

slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies

18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

19

Sustainability is becoming ever more significant

in all trades The discussion of climate protection

involves marine traffic as well Due to new

environmental regulations the shipping industry

will face major challenges in the coming years

Increased restrictions that limit the emission of

harmful substances will require the use of

expensive fuels or investment in new filtering

and propulsion technologies Among other things

this will lead to additional cost increases for

container freight30 In 2008 the International

Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits

for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease

of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the

current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In

emission control areas an even stricter limit of

10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to

01 percent by 201531

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

20

Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)

32

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

21

03Opportunities and

Future Markets

22

Economic globalization will continue in the

coming years Adjusted for price the value of the

world wide trade of goods will grow from ten

billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars

in 203033 This development will benefit the port

industry too This industry includes all activities

involved in the value creation process of loading

and unloading goods as well as the transfer of

ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and

2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year

to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will

grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By

2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50

percent within the European Union35

Improving site conditions will become ever more

important for the individual ports for example

increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces

or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks

and train The German government focuses

current investments on the expansion of seaward

access roads as well as effective inland

connections36 Globally the need for investments

in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40

billion Euro a year by 203037

Ports will also

benefit from the growth of marine power

production For example ports will play an

increasingly central role in the value chain of

offshore wind energy There are future

opportunities in the fields of montage transfer

and service38 However ports will have to invest

heavily to be able to expand their capacities

accordingly

The significance of automation and safety

technologies will increase due to the growing

transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on

data that create a network of all actors involved

in the port economy promise additional

efficiency To guarantee international

competitiveness the cooperation between

individual ports might become increasingly

relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of

the cooperation between ports in Northern

Germany to improve the port location Germany39

Opportunities and Future Markets

23Opportunities and Future Markets

By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year

40

24

The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the

marine economy It connects ports

transportation methods and companies and

guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and

people The development of the oceans as a

source of food natural resources and energy

increases the need for an expansion of offshore

infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms

at ever greater distances to the shore require

new foundations and basic structures Innovative

technological solutions can significantly

contribute to a more cost efficient operation of

such plants The demand for specialists to

transport and mount materials and components

on site will grow The market for offshore supply

ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in

2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is

an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage

of goods natural resources and energy on

specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring

great logistic advantages for loading and

unloading procedures42 The expansion of an

underwater infrastructure for power cables will

be important to the energy transport particularly

to the transport of renewable energies Within

the next ten years the number of underwater

high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of

30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater

power cable will connect Norway and Germany

helping to level green power fluctuations

Opportunities and challenges in the area of

marine economy boost numerous technological

developments Maritime technologies are a

separate future market within the area of marine

economy They are particularly important to the

fields of ship technology energy mining the

mining of natural resources and the expansion

of maritime infrastructure Additional applications

are in the areas of measurement environment

and security technology Intelligent and

autonomous systems that can operate in great

depths are highly significant44 The Canadian

start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean

Institute for Marine Science and Technology and

the British company Seabed Resources want to

use highly modern robots to mine natural

resources in the deep sea

Opportunities and Future Markets

robust

25Opportunities and Future Markets

Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45

intelligent

sustainable

autonomous

26

In the middle and long term the trend towards

intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence

shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or

trucks scientists all over the world work on

concepts that are supposed to one day make it

possible that ships cross the oceans by

themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center

for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg

are developing related technology The crew can

be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks

after several boats at the same time To make

unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion

technologies and concepts have to be developed

as well because todayrsquos engine technology

requires far too much maintenance46

Technical developments that make use of the

efficiency potential reduce emissions and the

destructive influence on marine ecosystems are

becoming increasingly important considering the

background of climate changes and new

regulations Innovative marine technologies may

help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea

mining maritime energy production and more47

The greatest potential for successful positioning

in the future market of marine economy develops

in places where high technology and sustainable

concepts meet

The shipping sector does not only research

increasingly efficient propulsion methods but

also alternative propulsion methods Liquid

natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant

in the future The American company Tote

Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-

fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-

propelled container ship The ship is supposed to

start operating in 201548 By 2030 international

ocean shipping could potentially be the largest

LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The

industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop

this future market by expanding appropriate

LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel

methanol shore power and hydrogen will most

likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or

niche transport Hybrid solutions however might

prevail in the long term at least New and

powerful methods of energy storage are an

important prerequisite50

Opportunities and Future Markets

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

As soon as ten years from now China might

replace the United States as the largest national

economy in the world Today China is already

the largest container market In addition Chinese

banks could push into the market of ship

financing while German banks reduced their

involvement in this sector following the financial

crises In the future German ship owners

interested in investing might be forced to seek

financing from Chinese banks This could have a

negative impact on the German supplier industry

The competition between individual ports will

also intensify in the future Because container

ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer

central ports will handle an ever growing portion

of the sea trade For example within the next

few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its

container business to the JadeWeser port in

Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that

is independent of the tides and therefore

attractive to giant freighters28 International

relations change too While Hamburg used to

be among the largest container ports in the

world today it ranks only in 16th place By now

six of the top ten ports in the world are in

China29

Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges

to maritime traffic Although we seem to have

skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the

mining maximum by the expansion and

increased economic viability of unconventional oil

mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil

boom likely only defers the problem to a later

time

There are no clear predictions since a decrease

of conventional oil mining will result in higher

investments in research and development of

unconventional oil resources The danger

remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will

increase continuously or at the very least be

volatile In addition modernizing refineries will

result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-

product although the demand will keep rising

For several years now ship owners have tried to

reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with

slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies

18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

19

Sustainability is becoming ever more significant

in all trades The discussion of climate protection

involves marine traffic as well Due to new

environmental regulations the shipping industry

will face major challenges in the coming years

Increased restrictions that limit the emission of

harmful substances will require the use of

expensive fuels or investment in new filtering

and propulsion technologies Among other things

this will lead to additional cost increases for

container freight30 In 2008 the International

Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits

for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease

of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the

current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In

emission control areas an even stricter limit of

10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to

01 percent by 201531

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

20

Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)

32

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

21

03Opportunities and

Future Markets

22

Economic globalization will continue in the

coming years Adjusted for price the value of the

world wide trade of goods will grow from ten

billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars

in 203033 This development will benefit the port

industry too This industry includes all activities

involved in the value creation process of loading

and unloading goods as well as the transfer of

ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and

2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year

to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will

grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By

2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50

percent within the European Union35

Improving site conditions will become ever more

important for the individual ports for example

increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces

or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks

and train The German government focuses

current investments on the expansion of seaward

access roads as well as effective inland

connections36 Globally the need for investments

in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40

billion Euro a year by 203037

Ports will also

benefit from the growth of marine power

production For example ports will play an

increasingly central role in the value chain of

offshore wind energy There are future

opportunities in the fields of montage transfer

and service38 However ports will have to invest

heavily to be able to expand their capacities

accordingly

The significance of automation and safety

technologies will increase due to the growing

transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on

data that create a network of all actors involved

in the port economy promise additional

efficiency To guarantee international

competitiveness the cooperation between

individual ports might become increasingly

relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of

the cooperation between ports in Northern

Germany to improve the port location Germany39

Opportunities and Future Markets

23Opportunities and Future Markets

By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year

40

24

The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the

marine economy It connects ports

transportation methods and companies and

guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and

people The development of the oceans as a

source of food natural resources and energy

increases the need for an expansion of offshore

infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms

at ever greater distances to the shore require

new foundations and basic structures Innovative

technological solutions can significantly

contribute to a more cost efficient operation of

such plants The demand for specialists to

transport and mount materials and components

on site will grow The market for offshore supply

ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in

2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is

an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage

of goods natural resources and energy on

specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring

great logistic advantages for loading and

unloading procedures42 The expansion of an

underwater infrastructure for power cables will

be important to the energy transport particularly

to the transport of renewable energies Within

the next ten years the number of underwater

high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of

30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater

power cable will connect Norway and Germany

helping to level green power fluctuations

Opportunities and challenges in the area of

marine economy boost numerous technological

developments Maritime technologies are a

separate future market within the area of marine

economy They are particularly important to the

fields of ship technology energy mining the

mining of natural resources and the expansion

of maritime infrastructure Additional applications

are in the areas of measurement environment

and security technology Intelligent and

autonomous systems that can operate in great

depths are highly significant44 The Canadian

start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean

Institute for Marine Science and Technology and

the British company Seabed Resources want to

use highly modern robots to mine natural

resources in the deep sea

Opportunities and Future Markets

robust

25Opportunities and Future Markets

Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45

intelligent

sustainable

autonomous

26

In the middle and long term the trend towards

intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence

shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or

trucks scientists all over the world work on

concepts that are supposed to one day make it

possible that ships cross the oceans by

themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center

for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg

are developing related technology The crew can

be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks

after several boats at the same time To make

unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion

technologies and concepts have to be developed

as well because todayrsquos engine technology

requires far too much maintenance46

Technical developments that make use of the

efficiency potential reduce emissions and the

destructive influence on marine ecosystems are

becoming increasingly important considering the

background of climate changes and new

regulations Innovative marine technologies may

help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea

mining maritime energy production and more47

The greatest potential for successful positioning

in the future market of marine economy develops

in places where high technology and sustainable

concepts meet

The shipping sector does not only research

increasingly efficient propulsion methods but

also alternative propulsion methods Liquid

natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant

in the future The American company Tote

Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-

fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-

propelled container ship The ship is supposed to

start operating in 201548 By 2030 international

ocean shipping could potentially be the largest

LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The

industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop

this future market by expanding appropriate

LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel

methanol shore power and hydrogen will most

likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or

niche transport Hybrid solutions however might

prevail in the long term at least New and

powerful methods of energy storage are an

important prerequisite50

Opportunities and Future Markets

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

19

Sustainability is becoming ever more significant

in all trades The discussion of climate protection

involves marine traffic as well Due to new

environmental regulations the shipping industry

will face major challenges in the coming years

Increased restrictions that limit the emission of

harmful substances will require the use of

expensive fuels or investment in new filtering

and propulsion technologies Among other things

this will lead to additional cost increases for

container freight30 In 2008 the International

Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits

for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease

of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the

current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In

emission control areas an even stricter limit of

10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to

01 percent by 201531

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

20

Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)

32

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

21

03Opportunities and

Future Markets

22

Economic globalization will continue in the

coming years Adjusted for price the value of the

world wide trade of goods will grow from ten

billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars

in 203033 This development will benefit the port

industry too This industry includes all activities

involved in the value creation process of loading

and unloading goods as well as the transfer of

ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and

2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year

to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will

grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By

2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50

percent within the European Union35

Improving site conditions will become ever more

important for the individual ports for example

increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces

or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks

and train The German government focuses

current investments on the expansion of seaward

access roads as well as effective inland

connections36 Globally the need for investments

in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40

billion Euro a year by 203037

Ports will also

benefit from the growth of marine power

production For example ports will play an

increasingly central role in the value chain of

offshore wind energy There are future

opportunities in the fields of montage transfer

and service38 However ports will have to invest

heavily to be able to expand their capacities

accordingly

The significance of automation and safety

technologies will increase due to the growing

transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on

data that create a network of all actors involved

in the port economy promise additional

efficiency To guarantee international

competitiveness the cooperation between

individual ports might become increasingly

relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of

the cooperation between ports in Northern

Germany to improve the port location Germany39

Opportunities and Future Markets

23Opportunities and Future Markets

By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year

40

24

The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the

marine economy It connects ports

transportation methods and companies and

guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and

people The development of the oceans as a

source of food natural resources and energy

increases the need for an expansion of offshore

infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms

at ever greater distances to the shore require

new foundations and basic structures Innovative

technological solutions can significantly

contribute to a more cost efficient operation of

such plants The demand for specialists to

transport and mount materials and components

on site will grow The market for offshore supply

ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in

2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is

an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage

of goods natural resources and energy on

specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring

great logistic advantages for loading and

unloading procedures42 The expansion of an

underwater infrastructure for power cables will

be important to the energy transport particularly

to the transport of renewable energies Within

the next ten years the number of underwater

high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of

30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater

power cable will connect Norway and Germany

helping to level green power fluctuations

Opportunities and challenges in the area of

marine economy boost numerous technological

developments Maritime technologies are a

separate future market within the area of marine

economy They are particularly important to the

fields of ship technology energy mining the

mining of natural resources and the expansion

of maritime infrastructure Additional applications

are in the areas of measurement environment

and security technology Intelligent and

autonomous systems that can operate in great

depths are highly significant44 The Canadian

start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean

Institute for Marine Science and Technology and

the British company Seabed Resources want to

use highly modern robots to mine natural

resources in the deep sea

Opportunities and Future Markets

robust

25Opportunities and Future Markets

Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45

intelligent

sustainable

autonomous

26

In the middle and long term the trend towards

intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence

shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or

trucks scientists all over the world work on

concepts that are supposed to one day make it

possible that ships cross the oceans by

themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center

for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg

are developing related technology The crew can

be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks

after several boats at the same time To make

unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion

technologies and concepts have to be developed

as well because todayrsquos engine technology

requires far too much maintenance46

Technical developments that make use of the

efficiency potential reduce emissions and the

destructive influence on marine ecosystems are

becoming increasingly important considering the

background of climate changes and new

regulations Innovative marine technologies may

help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea

mining maritime energy production and more47

The greatest potential for successful positioning

in the future market of marine economy develops

in places where high technology and sustainable

concepts meet

The shipping sector does not only research

increasingly efficient propulsion methods but

also alternative propulsion methods Liquid

natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant

in the future The American company Tote

Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-

fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-

propelled container ship The ship is supposed to

start operating in 201548 By 2030 international

ocean shipping could potentially be the largest

LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The

industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop

this future market by expanding appropriate

LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel

methanol shore power and hydrogen will most

likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or

niche transport Hybrid solutions however might

prevail in the long term at least New and

powerful methods of energy storage are an

important prerequisite50

Opportunities and Future Markets

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

20

Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)

32

Intensifying Competition and New Challenges

21

03Opportunities and

Future Markets

22

Economic globalization will continue in the

coming years Adjusted for price the value of the

world wide trade of goods will grow from ten

billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars

in 203033 This development will benefit the port

industry too This industry includes all activities

involved in the value creation process of loading

and unloading goods as well as the transfer of

ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and

2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year

to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will

grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By

2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50

percent within the European Union35

Improving site conditions will become ever more

important for the individual ports for example

increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces

or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks

and train The German government focuses

current investments on the expansion of seaward

access roads as well as effective inland

connections36 Globally the need for investments

in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40

billion Euro a year by 203037

Ports will also

benefit from the growth of marine power

production For example ports will play an

increasingly central role in the value chain of

offshore wind energy There are future

opportunities in the fields of montage transfer

and service38 However ports will have to invest

heavily to be able to expand their capacities

accordingly

The significance of automation and safety

technologies will increase due to the growing

transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on

data that create a network of all actors involved

in the port economy promise additional

efficiency To guarantee international

competitiveness the cooperation between

individual ports might become increasingly

relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of

the cooperation between ports in Northern

Germany to improve the port location Germany39

Opportunities and Future Markets

23Opportunities and Future Markets

By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year

40

24

The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the

marine economy It connects ports

transportation methods and companies and

guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and

people The development of the oceans as a

source of food natural resources and energy

increases the need for an expansion of offshore

infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms

at ever greater distances to the shore require

new foundations and basic structures Innovative

technological solutions can significantly

contribute to a more cost efficient operation of

such plants The demand for specialists to

transport and mount materials and components

on site will grow The market for offshore supply

ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in

2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is

an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage

of goods natural resources and energy on

specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring

great logistic advantages for loading and

unloading procedures42 The expansion of an

underwater infrastructure for power cables will

be important to the energy transport particularly

to the transport of renewable energies Within

the next ten years the number of underwater

high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of

30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater

power cable will connect Norway and Germany

helping to level green power fluctuations

Opportunities and challenges in the area of

marine economy boost numerous technological

developments Maritime technologies are a

separate future market within the area of marine

economy They are particularly important to the

fields of ship technology energy mining the

mining of natural resources and the expansion

of maritime infrastructure Additional applications

are in the areas of measurement environment

and security technology Intelligent and

autonomous systems that can operate in great

depths are highly significant44 The Canadian

start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean

Institute for Marine Science and Technology and

the British company Seabed Resources want to

use highly modern robots to mine natural

resources in the deep sea

Opportunities and Future Markets

robust

25Opportunities and Future Markets

Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45

intelligent

sustainable

autonomous

26

In the middle and long term the trend towards

intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence

shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or

trucks scientists all over the world work on

concepts that are supposed to one day make it

possible that ships cross the oceans by

themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center

for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg

are developing related technology The crew can

be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks

after several boats at the same time To make

unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion

technologies and concepts have to be developed

as well because todayrsquos engine technology

requires far too much maintenance46

Technical developments that make use of the

efficiency potential reduce emissions and the

destructive influence on marine ecosystems are

becoming increasingly important considering the

background of climate changes and new

regulations Innovative marine technologies may

help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea

mining maritime energy production and more47

The greatest potential for successful positioning

in the future market of marine economy develops

in places where high technology and sustainable

concepts meet

The shipping sector does not only research

increasingly efficient propulsion methods but

also alternative propulsion methods Liquid

natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant

in the future The American company Tote

Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-

fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-

propelled container ship The ship is supposed to

start operating in 201548 By 2030 international

ocean shipping could potentially be the largest

LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The

industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop

this future market by expanding appropriate

LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel

methanol shore power and hydrogen will most

likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or

niche transport Hybrid solutions however might

prevail in the long term at least New and

powerful methods of energy storage are an

important prerequisite50

Opportunities and Future Markets

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

21

03Opportunities and

Future Markets

22

Economic globalization will continue in the

coming years Adjusted for price the value of the

world wide trade of goods will grow from ten

billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars

in 203033 This development will benefit the port

industry too This industry includes all activities

involved in the value creation process of loading

and unloading goods as well as the transfer of

ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and

2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year

to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will

grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By

2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50

percent within the European Union35

Improving site conditions will become ever more

important for the individual ports for example

increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces

or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks

and train The German government focuses

current investments on the expansion of seaward

access roads as well as effective inland

connections36 Globally the need for investments

in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40

billion Euro a year by 203037

Ports will also

benefit from the growth of marine power

production For example ports will play an

increasingly central role in the value chain of

offshore wind energy There are future

opportunities in the fields of montage transfer

and service38 However ports will have to invest

heavily to be able to expand their capacities

accordingly

The significance of automation and safety

technologies will increase due to the growing

transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on

data that create a network of all actors involved

in the port economy promise additional

efficiency To guarantee international

competitiveness the cooperation between

individual ports might become increasingly

relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of

the cooperation between ports in Northern

Germany to improve the port location Germany39

Opportunities and Future Markets

23Opportunities and Future Markets

By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year

40

24

The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the

marine economy It connects ports

transportation methods and companies and

guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and

people The development of the oceans as a

source of food natural resources and energy

increases the need for an expansion of offshore

infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms

at ever greater distances to the shore require

new foundations and basic structures Innovative

technological solutions can significantly

contribute to a more cost efficient operation of

such plants The demand for specialists to

transport and mount materials and components

on site will grow The market for offshore supply

ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in

2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is

an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage

of goods natural resources and energy on

specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring

great logistic advantages for loading and

unloading procedures42 The expansion of an

underwater infrastructure for power cables will

be important to the energy transport particularly

to the transport of renewable energies Within

the next ten years the number of underwater

high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of

30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater

power cable will connect Norway and Germany

helping to level green power fluctuations

Opportunities and challenges in the area of

marine economy boost numerous technological

developments Maritime technologies are a

separate future market within the area of marine

economy They are particularly important to the

fields of ship technology energy mining the

mining of natural resources and the expansion

of maritime infrastructure Additional applications

are in the areas of measurement environment

and security technology Intelligent and

autonomous systems that can operate in great

depths are highly significant44 The Canadian

start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean

Institute for Marine Science and Technology and

the British company Seabed Resources want to

use highly modern robots to mine natural

resources in the deep sea

Opportunities and Future Markets

robust

25Opportunities and Future Markets

Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45

intelligent

sustainable

autonomous

26

In the middle and long term the trend towards

intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence

shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or

trucks scientists all over the world work on

concepts that are supposed to one day make it

possible that ships cross the oceans by

themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center

for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg

are developing related technology The crew can

be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks

after several boats at the same time To make

unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion

technologies and concepts have to be developed

as well because todayrsquos engine technology

requires far too much maintenance46

Technical developments that make use of the

efficiency potential reduce emissions and the

destructive influence on marine ecosystems are

becoming increasingly important considering the

background of climate changes and new

regulations Innovative marine technologies may

help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea

mining maritime energy production and more47

The greatest potential for successful positioning

in the future market of marine economy develops

in places where high technology and sustainable

concepts meet

The shipping sector does not only research

increasingly efficient propulsion methods but

also alternative propulsion methods Liquid

natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant

in the future The American company Tote

Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-

fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-

propelled container ship The ship is supposed to

start operating in 201548 By 2030 international

ocean shipping could potentially be the largest

LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The

industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop

this future market by expanding appropriate

LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel

methanol shore power and hydrogen will most

likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or

niche transport Hybrid solutions however might

prevail in the long term at least New and

powerful methods of energy storage are an

important prerequisite50

Opportunities and Future Markets

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

22

Economic globalization will continue in the

coming years Adjusted for price the value of the

world wide trade of goods will grow from ten

billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars

in 203033 This development will benefit the port

industry too This industry includes all activities

involved in the value creation process of loading

and unloading goods as well as the transfer of

ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and

2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year

to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will

grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By

2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50

percent within the European Union35

Improving site conditions will become ever more

important for the individual ports for example

increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces

or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks

and train The German government focuses

current investments on the expansion of seaward

access roads as well as effective inland

connections36 Globally the need for investments

in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40

billion Euro a year by 203037

Ports will also

benefit from the growth of marine power

production For example ports will play an

increasingly central role in the value chain of

offshore wind energy There are future

opportunities in the fields of montage transfer

and service38 However ports will have to invest

heavily to be able to expand their capacities

accordingly

The significance of automation and safety

technologies will increase due to the growing

transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on

data that create a network of all actors involved

in the port economy promise additional

efficiency To guarantee international

competitiveness the cooperation between

individual ports might become increasingly

relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of

the cooperation between ports in Northern

Germany to improve the port location Germany39

Opportunities and Future Markets

23Opportunities and Future Markets

By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year

40

24

The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the

marine economy It connects ports

transportation methods and companies and

guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and

people The development of the oceans as a

source of food natural resources and energy

increases the need for an expansion of offshore

infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms

at ever greater distances to the shore require

new foundations and basic structures Innovative

technological solutions can significantly

contribute to a more cost efficient operation of

such plants The demand for specialists to

transport and mount materials and components

on site will grow The market for offshore supply

ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in

2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is

an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage

of goods natural resources and energy on

specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring

great logistic advantages for loading and

unloading procedures42 The expansion of an

underwater infrastructure for power cables will

be important to the energy transport particularly

to the transport of renewable energies Within

the next ten years the number of underwater

high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of

30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater

power cable will connect Norway and Germany

helping to level green power fluctuations

Opportunities and challenges in the area of

marine economy boost numerous technological

developments Maritime technologies are a

separate future market within the area of marine

economy They are particularly important to the

fields of ship technology energy mining the

mining of natural resources and the expansion

of maritime infrastructure Additional applications

are in the areas of measurement environment

and security technology Intelligent and

autonomous systems that can operate in great

depths are highly significant44 The Canadian

start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean

Institute for Marine Science and Technology and

the British company Seabed Resources want to

use highly modern robots to mine natural

resources in the deep sea

Opportunities and Future Markets

robust

25Opportunities and Future Markets

Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45

intelligent

sustainable

autonomous

26

In the middle and long term the trend towards

intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence

shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or

trucks scientists all over the world work on

concepts that are supposed to one day make it

possible that ships cross the oceans by

themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center

for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg

are developing related technology The crew can

be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks

after several boats at the same time To make

unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion

technologies and concepts have to be developed

as well because todayrsquos engine technology

requires far too much maintenance46

Technical developments that make use of the

efficiency potential reduce emissions and the

destructive influence on marine ecosystems are

becoming increasingly important considering the

background of climate changes and new

regulations Innovative marine technologies may

help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea

mining maritime energy production and more47

The greatest potential for successful positioning

in the future market of marine economy develops

in places where high technology and sustainable

concepts meet

The shipping sector does not only research

increasingly efficient propulsion methods but

also alternative propulsion methods Liquid

natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant

in the future The American company Tote

Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-

fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-

propelled container ship The ship is supposed to

start operating in 201548 By 2030 international

ocean shipping could potentially be the largest

LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The

industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop

this future market by expanding appropriate

LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel

methanol shore power and hydrogen will most

likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or

niche transport Hybrid solutions however might

prevail in the long term at least New and

powerful methods of energy storage are an

important prerequisite50

Opportunities and Future Markets

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

23Opportunities and Future Markets

By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year

40

24

The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the

marine economy It connects ports

transportation methods and companies and

guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and

people The development of the oceans as a

source of food natural resources and energy

increases the need for an expansion of offshore

infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms

at ever greater distances to the shore require

new foundations and basic structures Innovative

technological solutions can significantly

contribute to a more cost efficient operation of

such plants The demand for specialists to

transport and mount materials and components

on site will grow The market for offshore supply

ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in

2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is

an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage

of goods natural resources and energy on

specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring

great logistic advantages for loading and

unloading procedures42 The expansion of an

underwater infrastructure for power cables will

be important to the energy transport particularly

to the transport of renewable energies Within

the next ten years the number of underwater

high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of

30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater

power cable will connect Norway and Germany

helping to level green power fluctuations

Opportunities and challenges in the area of

marine economy boost numerous technological

developments Maritime technologies are a

separate future market within the area of marine

economy They are particularly important to the

fields of ship technology energy mining the

mining of natural resources and the expansion

of maritime infrastructure Additional applications

are in the areas of measurement environment

and security technology Intelligent and

autonomous systems that can operate in great

depths are highly significant44 The Canadian

start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean

Institute for Marine Science and Technology and

the British company Seabed Resources want to

use highly modern robots to mine natural

resources in the deep sea

Opportunities and Future Markets

robust

25Opportunities and Future Markets

Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45

intelligent

sustainable

autonomous

26

In the middle and long term the trend towards

intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence

shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or

trucks scientists all over the world work on

concepts that are supposed to one day make it

possible that ships cross the oceans by

themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center

for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg

are developing related technology The crew can

be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks

after several boats at the same time To make

unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion

technologies and concepts have to be developed

as well because todayrsquos engine technology

requires far too much maintenance46

Technical developments that make use of the

efficiency potential reduce emissions and the

destructive influence on marine ecosystems are

becoming increasingly important considering the

background of climate changes and new

regulations Innovative marine technologies may

help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea

mining maritime energy production and more47

The greatest potential for successful positioning

in the future market of marine economy develops

in places where high technology and sustainable

concepts meet

The shipping sector does not only research

increasingly efficient propulsion methods but

also alternative propulsion methods Liquid

natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant

in the future The American company Tote

Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-

fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-

propelled container ship The ship is supposed to

start operating in 201548 By 2030 international

ocean shipping could potentially be the largest

LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The

industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop

this future market by expanding appropriate

LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel

methanol shore power and hydrogen will most

likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or

niche transport Hybrid solutions however might

prevail in the long term at least New and

powerful methods of energy storage are an

important prerequisite50

Opportunities and Future Markets

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

24

The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the

marine economy It connects ports

transportation methods and companies and

guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and

people The development of the oceans as a

source of food natural resources and energy

increases the need for an expansion of offshore

infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms

at ever greater distances to the shore require

new foundations and basic structures Innovative

technological solutions can significantly

contribute to a more cost efficient operation of

such plants The demand for specialists to

transport and mount materials and components

on site will grow The market for offshore supply

ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in

2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is

an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage

of goods natural resources and energy on

specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring

great logistic advantages for loading and

unloading procedures42 The expansion of an

underwater infrastructure for power cables will

be important to the energy transport particularly

to the transport of renewable energies Within

the next ten years the number of underwater

high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of

30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater

power cable will connect Norway and Germany

helping to level green power fluctuations

Opportunities and challenges in the area of

marine economy boost numerous technological

developments Maritime technologies are a

separate future market within the area of marine

economy They are particularly important to the

fields of ship technology energy mining the

mining of natural resources and the expansion

of maritime infrastructure Additional applications

are in the areas of measurement environment

and security technology Intelligent and

autonomous systems that can operate in great

depths are highly significant44 The Canadian

start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean

Institute for Marine Science and Technology and

the British company Seabed Resources want to

use highly modern robots to mine natural

resources in the deep sea

Opportunities and Future Markets

robust

25Opportunities and Future Markets

Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45

intelligent

sustainable

autonomous

26

In the middle and long term the trend towards

intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence

shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or

trucks scientists all over the world work on

concepts that are supposed to one day make it

possible that ships cross the oceans by

themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center

for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg

are developing related technology The crew can

be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks

after several boats at the same time To make

unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion

technologies and concepts have to be developed

as well because todayrsquos engine technology

requires far too much maintenance46

Technical developments that make use of the

efficiency potential reduce emissions and the

destructive influence on marine ecosystems are

becoming increasingly important considering the

background of climate changes and new

regulations Innovative marine technologies may

help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea

mining maritime energy production and more47

The greatest potential for successful positioning

in the future market of marine economy develops

in places where high technology and sustainable

concepts meet

The shipping sector does not only research

increasingly efficient propulsion methods but

also alternative propulsion methods Liquid

natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant

in the future The American company Tote

Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-

fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-

propelled container ship The ship is supposed to

start operating in 201548 By 2030 international

ocean shipping could potentially be the largest

LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The

industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop

this future market by expanding appropriate

LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel

methanol shore power and hydrogen will most

likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or

niche transport Hybrid solutions however might

prevail in the long term at least New and

powerful methods of energy storage are an

important prerequisite50

Opportunities and Future Markets

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

robust

25Opportunities and Future Markets

Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45

intelligent

sustainable

autonomous

26

In the middle and long term the trend towards

intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence

shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or

trucks scientists all over the world work on

concepts that are supposed to one day make it

possible that ships cross the oceans by

themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center

for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg

are developing related technology The crew can

be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks

after several boats at the same time To make

unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion

technologies and concepts have to be developed

as well because todayrsquos engine technology

requires far too much maintenance46

Technical developments that make use of the

efficiency potential reduce emissions and the

destructive influence on marine ecosystems are

becoming increasingly important considering the

background of climate changes and new

regulations Innovative marine technologies may

help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea

mining maritime energy production and more47

The greatest potential for successful positioning

in the future market of marine economy develops

in places where high technology and sustainable

concepts meet

The shipping sector does not only research

increasingly efficient propulsion methods but

also alternative propulsion methods Liquid

natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant

in the future The American company Tote

Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-

fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-

propelled container ship The ship is supposed to

start operating in 201548 By 2030 international

ocean shipping could potentially be the largest

LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The

industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop

this future market by expanding appropriate

LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel

methanol shore power and hydrogen will most

likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or

niche transport Hybrid solutions however might

prevail in the long term at least New and

powerful methods of energy storage are an

important prerequisite50

Opportunities and Future Markets

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

26

In the middle and long term the trend towards

intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence

shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or

trucks scientists all over the world work on

concepts that are supposed to one day make it

possible that ships cross the oceans by

themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center

for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg

are developing related technology The crew can

be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks

after several boats at the same time To make

unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion

technologies and concepts have to be developed

as well because todayrsquos engine technology

requires far too much maintenance46

Technical developments that make use of the

efficiency potential reduce emissions and the

destructive influence on marine ecosystems are

becoming increasingly important considering the

background of climate changes and new

regulations Innovative marine technologies may

help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea

mining maritime energy production and more47

The greatest potential for successful positioning

in the future market of marine economy develops

in places where high technology and sustainable

concepts meet

The shipping sector does not only research

increasingly efficient propulsion methods but

also alternative propulsion methods Liquid

natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant

in the future The American company Tote

Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-

fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-

propelled container ship The ship is supposed to

start operating in 201548 By 2030 international

ocean shipping could potentially be the largest

LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The

industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop

this future market by expanding appropriate

LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel

methanol shore power and hydrogen will most

likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or

niche transport Hybrid solutions however might

prevail in the long term at least New and

powerful methods of energy storage are an

important prerequisite50

Opportunities and Future Markets

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

27

Ergonomics lightweight materials and support

technologies can also contribute to more efficient

fuel use SkySails for example is a wind

propulsion system for ships using a towing kite

that appropriates the potential of high winds on

high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel

consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian

engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic

freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is

supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The

Japanese company Eco Marine Power has

developed solar sails for tankers and freighters

that are also supposed to help emissions53

The

connection of specialized ship building and Green

Shipping will likely develop into an attractive

future market Suppliers of high tech components

that distinguish themselves as leaders in

economical and sustainable technologies will

surely benefit54

In addition to Green Shipping the development

of offshore energies is an another important

building block in the segment of sustainable

opportunities in marine economy The oceans will

not only serve as a source of power generated by

wind and wave energy but also as energy

reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable

energies urgently requires the development of

adequate energy reservoirs As part of the

research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy

in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF

Solutions AG is in the process of testing the

concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant

Excess charging current pumps out a concrete

hollow body which during the discharge

operation is refilled with water via a turbine

which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has

developed a method to store photovoltaic power

by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close

to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is

supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant

is in construction56

Opportunities and Future Markets

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on

sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular

face heavy criticism because fish excrements

overload marine biotopes The Center for

Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore

conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic

Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish

muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks

without affecting the water quality This bears

the advantage that wind park and aquaculture

cooperate on the same area and create high-

quality algae as a side product which can be

used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57

In the coming years the shortage of drinking

water will continue to be an even greater issue in

many countries Here too marine economy can

offer an important future market Even today

300 million people receive their drinking water

from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the

global market for seawater desalinization will

grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153

billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization

technologies that are energy efficient or based

upon renewable energies will become particularly

important

Increasingly extreme weather events and rising

sea levels will lead to heavy investments in

coastal protection Embankment expansions and

enforcements land reclamation and artificial

ridges are only a few examples of the ways

people are trying to control impending floods

Countries like the Netherlands that have had to

deal with rising sea levels for a long time have

begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-

architecturersquo for example Innovative building

and apartment complexes show how in the

future people can live with the water Europersquos

first drifting apartment complex de Citadel

designed by the architectural offices

WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag

consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming

houses that fall or rise with the water level offer

new opportunities to the construction and real

estate industry in endangered areas At the same

time these projects show that humankind could

access and develop entirely new work and living

spaces

28Opportunities and Future Markets

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

29

Worldwide architects are developing visionary

concepts of creating new sustainable living space

in swimming cities at the shores of urban

centers DeltaSync for example developed one

such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a

swimming district located in front of the actual

metropolis mainly serving the production of food

and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading

Institute wants to create the first autonomous

swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61

With the expansion of the offshore industry the

oceans are already turning into work and living

spaces The Prelude which is currently being

built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be

the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488

meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is

supposed to serve the mining liquidation

storage and transport of natural gas and will

provide room for 350 crew62

Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine

economy

Opportunities and Future Markets

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The

2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of

Download 17062013

2 University of Washington (2014) World population

to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100

Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of

Download 19092014

3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013

With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)

4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis

Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014

BonnBerlin (Link)

5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag

der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus

und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013

Date of Download 13102014

6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global

megatrends shaping governments (Link)

7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link

Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download

16092014

816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine

Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow

9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo

(Link)

10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global

Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513

billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014

Date of Download 18062014

1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3

Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken

Hamburg (Link)

12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr

Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe

Berlin (Link)

13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 Irving (Link)

14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert

Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date

12032013 Date of Download 14102014

18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power

Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says

GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date

of Download 10102014

19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

14102014

20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward

2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)

21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues

Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und

maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)

22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of

Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)

23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise

Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise

Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link

Publication Date 2013 Date of Download

16092014

25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater

Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 15092014

References

30

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der

Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und

Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in

Deutschland Berlin (Link)

27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche

Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication

Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014

28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz

Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of

Download 16102014

29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab

Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of

Download 16102014

30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost

Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication

Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014

31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash

Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

17102014

3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als

Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und

schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn

Heidelberg Berlin (Link)

33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global

trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014

(Link)

34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)

Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg

(Link)

35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports

2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date

23052013 Date of Download 20102014

37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure

Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)

39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine

Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des

Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)

40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned

Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application

Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to

2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of

Download 20102014

41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support

Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global

Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date

2013 Date of Download 21102014

42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse

concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry

Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of

Download 10092014

43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine

Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by

2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of

Download 27112013

44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous

Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and

future contributions to the advancement of marine

geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June

2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)

45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten

Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau

Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin

(Link)

46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen

automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern

Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of

Download 21102014

References

31

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -

an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)

48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff

erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date

13102014 Date of Download 21102014

50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping

Hoslashvik (Link)

51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

12092014

52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll

Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date

12072014 Date of Download 14072014

53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link

Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

22102014

54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie

in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr

Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)

55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr

Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)

StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication

Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014

56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand

speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date

of Download 28102014

57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH

(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF

Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download

28102014

58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination

Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018

Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of

Download 30042014

59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende

Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of

Download 22102014

60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link

Publication Date 2012 Date of Download

22102014

61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City

Project (Link)

62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date

2014 Date of Download 22102014

References

32

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734

Bernd Hinrichs

Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG

Contact

HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841

About the FutureManagementGroup AG

For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets

Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014

Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom

Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler

Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650

Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG

The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner

ISSN 2363-6734