the future is blue
TRANSCRIPT
The Future is Blue
Future Markets in Marine Economy
Market Foresights No 4 2014
2
Contents
Introduction
Page 3-6
01Future Developments in Marine Economy
Growing Maritime Trade
Growing Usage of Maritime Resources
Growing Maritime Power Production
Growing Maritime Tourism
Page 7-14
02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
Intensifying Competition
Cost of Fuel Environmental Stressors and New Regulations
Page 15-20
03Opportunities and Future Markets
Growing Port Industry
Maritime Technologies and Development of Infrastructures
Sustainable Marine Economy and Shipbuilding Innovations
Maritime Work and Living Spaces
Food from the Sea and Saltwater Desalination
Page 21-29
References
Page 30
Introduction
3
The consumption of natural resources increases
with the growth of the world population
According to current prognoses the population
will keep growing until the end of this century at
least By the year 2100 the number of people
inhabiting the world will have grown from almost
seven billion today to up to eleven billion12 The
hunger and need for energy grows without
restraint In the future more people will use
more energy per capita This is mostly because
the standard of living in developing and emerging
countries will align with that in the western
world By 2040 the global demand for energy
will increase by more than 50 percent compared
to 2010 despite continuously increasing energy
efficiency3
In the new emerging economic
regions the demand for high quality foods and
consumable goods is growing along with the
income
A shortage inaccessibility or finality of resources
could lead to bottlenecks or leaping price
increases with some natural reserves such as
crude oil or high-tech metals A shortage of
drinking water and food will in some regions
increase the danger of conflicts over land and
water distribution Against this background
alternative and innovative resources become
more and more significant and valuable
Corporations and countries alike focus more and
more on access to new thus far economically
unattractive storage methods and power sources
and it is likely that these efforts will intensify in
the medium and long term
The oceans of the world promise to be a nearly
inexhaustible resource Within the next years and
decades management of marine resources will
increase greatly Ecological risks and technical
hurdles still hamper fast and ready access of
maritime resources Extreme conditions in the
deep sea for example pose high demands on
mining methods and technical equipment At the
same time demands grow loud to sustainably
use the oceans as a resource so that we may
benefit from marine reserves in the long term
and can guarantee our survival beyond the 21st
century
4Einfuumlhrung
40 percent of the world population lives in coastal and delta regions and the tendency is growing The consequences of climate changes will pose great challenges particularly to cities
4
5
Without a doubt one of the greatest challenges
facing marine economy is to avoid over-using the
oceans as a source of food resources power
and drinking water (by desalination) or as traffic
work and living space The reduction of fish
stock the warming of oceans by greenhouse gas
emissions as well as the stress placed on marine
ecosystems by pollutants and plastic waste are
only a few examples demonstrating that the
oceans are endangered already At the same
time these dangers offer opportunities for
example in the area of environmental
technologies Within marine economy the area
of sustainable marine economy will become a
multi-billion-market
Making the oceans accessible as a resource
requires a continuous development of the
maritime infrastructure This is a significant
future market for ship machine and plant
manufacturing companies The oceans will also
become more and more significant as transport
area As a result of the ever growing globalization
and changing spare time behaviors the growing
need for the transportation of goods and
passengers offers opportunities for companies
involved in the marine traffic and port industries
Developing coastal regions and a growing
environmentally responsible ocean tourism
promise ldquobluerdquo growth as well Tourism the
largest sector of the maritime industry creates
more than two million jobs in the European Union
and generates an added value of more than 100
billion Euro a year5
In the future the oceans and coastal regions will
be both work and living spaces for a growing
percentage of the world population Hundreds of
millions of people live on land located less than
five meters above sea level and the tendency is
growing Many of these rapidly growing mega-
cities expand in coastal and delta regions There
the ocean is not just an economic factor but
due to global warming a threat as well Rising
sea levels and increasingly extreme weather will
result in higher financial expenditures and
innovative technological methodology in the
segment of flood protection for coastal regions
Introduction
6
Future Markets in Marine Economy
Sustainable Marine Economy Growing Port Industry
Growing Usage of Maritime Resources
Growing Maritime Power Production
Development of Maritime Infrastructures
Maritime Technologies
Innovations in Shipbuilding Maritime Work and Living SpacesMarine Economy Growing Maritime Tourism
7
01Future Developments in Marine Economy
8
Which Trends Influence the Future of Marine Economy
Shortage of Resources Climate ChangesRising Demand for Food
Globalization Growth of Global Population New Economic Powers Urbanization
Shortage of Oil
Energy Innovations Demand for ExperiencesEcological Sustainability AutomationRobotization
9
Global trade will keep growing driven by forces
such as the continuing globalization and the
development of a broad and spend-happy middle
class in the emerging economic regions While
today about 60 percent of the global middle class
live in the developing and emerging countries by
the year 2030 it will be about 80 percent6 In the
same time period world trade will grow an
average of eight percent per year7 Marine trade
will more than double from todaylsquos nine billion
tons to 19 to 24 billion tons in the year 20308
Logistics companies port management ship
builders and their suppliers will benefit from
growing container traffic Following the over
capacity due to the economic crisis the demand
for new ships will grow by the year 20209 In
addition the average transport capacity and size
of container chips will keep growing To save
costs the shipsrsquo fuel efficiency and technical
equipment must improve continuously
Networking and automation are fields that will
become particularly significant
Future Developments in Marine Economy
10Future Developments in Marine Economy
The ocean holds huge resources from protein-
rich fish to crude oil gas and methane hydrate
as well as economically interesting minerals and
metals Biological resources are also useful in
fields such as cosmetics and medication
By the year 2030 food production will have to
increase by 50 percent to cover the growing need
of the world population Protecting the oceans as
one of the most important food sources will be a
particularly significant task because overfishing
of some fish stock is already an issue today
Products from wild catches are being replaced by
aquaculture ie controlled breeding Between
2012 and 2019 the global market for aquaculture
will grow by almost 50 percent to a total of 195
billion10 This development has a particularly
negative impact on developing countries where
peoplersquos livelihood is directly or indirectly
dependent on fishing or where nutritional
resources diminish by continued overfishing
Should fish stock be further decimated in the
future fishing regulations might tighten and
quotas intensify considerably
In the medium and long term increasing
commodity prices will make deep sea mining
attractive In the future ore in form of
manganese modules cobalt crusts and massive
sulfides will be mined as far as 4000 meters
below the surface11 Particularly manganese
modules which are rich in non-ferrous metals
provide high hopes because these metals are
used for the production of of modern high-tech
products such as smart phones solar cells wind
power plants or electric vehicles Sustainable
mining which is to say mining that will not put
too much strain on the ecosystem of the ocean
floor will provide a great challenge If we wish to
safeguard our resources in the long term the
mining of marine mineral resources is of strategic
importance Access to and research of these
resources are regulated by the International
Seabed Authority of the United Nations The rules
for commercial mining have not yet been
defined12
Between 2010 and 2040 the amount of oil mined in the deep sea will increase by more than 150 percent
13
11Future Developments in Marine Economy
Future Developments in Marine Economy 12
Nautilus Minerals from Canada is the first
company planning the mining of massive sulfides
from the seabed14 Germany owns research
licenses for two areas in the Pacific
The future of energy production also lies in the
oceans Globally about one third of natural gas
and oil is mined in the ocean and the tendency
is increasing15 The dependence of the global
economy on fossil fuels has risen to a precarious
level Almost all industrialized countries have to
import oil to cover their needs While the global
use of oil keeps growing quickly experts fear
that the maximum might be reached soon The
mining of new power sources which thus far are
not economically viable and the development of
new mining technologies are becoming more
significant In order to mine oil and gas in the
deep sea swimming platforms for example will
be needed Between 2010 and 2030 their
number will more than double to a total of 600
world wide16 In the future plants that can
operate directly on the seabed at depths of
several thousand meters will likely play an
increased role as well Suitable technologies
could revolutionize the offshore mining of natural
gas and oil and be far more cost effective than
todays platform-based plants
One of the largest fossil energy sources is
methane hydrate Countries investing most on
researching this energy source are Japan and the
USA In 2013 Japanese scientists were able to
mine gas stored one kilometer below sea level
and buried more than 300 meters deep in the
seabed Commercial mining is supposed to
commence by 2018 Offshore methane hydrate
resources could provide Japan with energy for
more than 100 years17 There are still
technological hurdles to overcome In addition
mining harbors geological and ecological risks
In addition to providing a large supply of energy
sources the oceans are also an energy source
itself Energy from wave tide and current power
plants will become a more significant part of the
regenerative energy mix The future market
marine energy is interesting for established plant
manufacturers as well as for innovative start-ups
13
Between 2013 and 2020 the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide
18
Future Developments in Marine Economy
14
The Finnish company Minesto for example
developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite
tethered to the seabed which moves with the
ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine
and a generator19
Offshore wind power will grow to become one of
the largest segments in the market for renewable
energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an
increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030
Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos
wind power will more than double to a total of 14
billion Euro By 2020 global investments in
offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20
Maritime tourism will become more significant as
well Today about 24 million people work in the
field of coastal and ocean tourism of which
150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past
few years this market has experienced an
enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the
number of passengers rose from 12 million to
213 million world wide a total growth of 77
percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers
will increase by an additional three million to a
total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect
passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have
to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding
industry will profit The trend toward experience
travel will increase the demand for specialized
tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)
Within the premium travel segment mobile
islands underwater hotels and submarine travel
could be an interesting growth market The
company Deep Ocean Technology for example
develops technologies for underwater hotels
The hotel room segments can be lowered up to
30 meters below sea level Plans to implement
such a prestigious project are already in
existence25
Future Developments in Marine Economy
15
02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
16
The competition for the economic usage of
maritime space and coastal regions will intensify
For example offshore wind park operators
compete with fisheries for space neighboring
states in the Arctic fiercely compete for
resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone
and cruise ship companies fight for the best
berths and mooring times in the most attractive
port cities To the extent that the oceans become
more and more attractive because new
technologies make the oceans a more efficient
and comprehensive fountain of food resources
and energy countries and corporations will
increase their investments and activities to
develop and access this potential Considering
the continuous population growth and the
increasing shortages of resources in a worst
case scenario unresolved or overlapping
territorial claims could turn violent and provoke
political conflict For example China and other
neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the
Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea
where experts assume large sources of raw
materials
Marine economy particularly ocean trade is
strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world
economy The world wide financial crisis had led
to a significantly reduced demand for shipping
space as well as cancellations and decreased
orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the
container ship building industry particularly in
Asia the German ship building industry had to
restructure and refocus building offshore-
oriented specialty ships instead of container
ships26 The question is how long will it take for
suppliers from emerging countries particularly
from China to enter the market for tailor-made
ships and offer them at lower costs There are
dramatic changes in the balance of the world
economy Developing and emerging countries will
provide an ever larger portion of the workforce
capital technology and trade volume By 2050
experts predict growth beyond average for the
BRIC states Their share of the global social
product will grow significantly
Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges
17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets
27
As soon as ten years from now China might
replace the United States as the largest national
economy in the world Today China is already
the largest container market In addition Chinese
banks could push into the market of ship
financing while German banks reduced their
involvement in this sector following the financial
crises In the future German ship owners
interested in investing might be forced to seek
financing from Chinese banks This could have a
negative impact on the German supplier industry
The competition between individual ports will
also intensify in the future Because container
ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer
central ports will handle an ever growing portion
of the sea trade For example within the next
few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its
container business to the JadeWeser port in
Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that
is independent of the tides and therefore
attractive to giant freighters28 International
relations change too While Hamburg used to
be among the largest container ports in the
world today it ranks only in 16th place By now
six of the top ten ports in the world are in
China29
Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges
to maritime traffic Although we seem to have
skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the
mining maximum by the expansion and
increased economic viability of unconventional oil
mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil
boom likely only defers the problem to a later
time
There are no clear predictions since a decrease
of conventional oil mining will result in higher
investments in research and development of
unconventional oil resources The danger
remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will
increase continuously or at the very least be
volatile In addition modernizing refineries will
result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-
product although the demand will keep rising
For several years now ship owners have tried to
reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with
slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies
18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
19
Sustainability is becoming ever more significant
in all trades The discussion of climate protection
involves marine traffic as well Due to new
environmental regulations the shipping industry
will face major challenges in the coming years
Increased restrictions that limit the emission of
harmful substances will require the use of
expensive fuels or investment in new filtering
and propulsion technologies Among other things
this will lead to additional cost increases for
container freight30 In 2008 the International
Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits
for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease
of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the
current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In
emission control areas an even stricter limit of
10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to
01 percent by 201531
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
20
Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)
32
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
21
03Opportunities and
Future Markets
22
Economic globalization will continue in the
coming years Adjusted for price the value of the
world wide trade of goods will grow from ten
billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars
in 203033 This development will benefit the port
industry too This industry includes all activities
involved in the value creation process of loading
and unloading goods as well as the transfer of
ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and
2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year
to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will
grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By
2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50
percent within the European Union35
Improving site conditions will become ever more
important for the individual ports for example
increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces
or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks
and train The German government focuses
current investments on the expansion of seaward
access roads as well as effective inland
connections36 Globally the need for investments
in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40
billion Euro a year by 203037
Ports will also
benefit from the growth of marine power
production For example ports will play an
increasingly central role in the value chain of
offshore wind energy There are future
opportunities in the fields of montage transfer
and service38 However ports will have to invest
heavily to be able to expand their capacities
accordingly
The significance of automation and safety
technologies will increase due to the growing
transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on
data that create a network of all actors involved
in the port economy promise additional
efficiency To guarantee international
competitiveness the cooperation between
individual ports might become increasingly
relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of
the cooperation between ports in Northern
Germany to improve the port location Germany39
Opportunities and Future Markets
23Opportunities and Future Markets
By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year
40
24
The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the
marine economy It connects ports
transportation methods and companies and
guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and
people The development of the oceans as a
source of food natural resources and energy
increases the need for an expansion of offshore
infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms
at ever greater distances to the shore require
new foundations and basic structures Innovative
technological solutions can significantly
contribute to a more cost efficient operation of
such plants The demand for specialists to
transport and mount materials and components
on site will grow The market for offshore supply
ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in
2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is
an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage
of goods natural resources and energy on
specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring
great logistic advantages for loading and
unloading procedures42 The expansion of an
underwater infrastructure for power cables will
be important to the energy transport particularly
to the transport of renewable energies Within
the next ten years the number of underwater
high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of
30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater
power cable will connect Norway and Germany
helping to level green power fluctuations
Opportunities and challenges in the area of
marine economy boost numerous technological
developments Maritime technologies are a
separate future market within the area of marine
economy They are particularly important to the
fields of ship technology energy mining the
mining of natural resources and the expansion
of maritime infrastructure Additional applications
are in the areas of measurement environment
and security technology Intelligent and
autonomous systems that can operate in great
depths are highly significant44 The Canadian
start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean
Institute for Marine Science and Technology and
the British company Seabed Resources want to
use highly modern robots to mine natural
resources in the deep sea
Opportunities and Future Markets
robust
25Opportunities and Future Markets
Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45
intelligent
sustainable
autonomous
26
In the middle and long term the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks
after several boats at the same time To make
unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well because todayrsquos engine technology
requires far too much maintenance46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining maritime energy production and more47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods but
also alternative propulsion methods Liquid
natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant
in the future The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship The ship is supposed to
start operating in 201548 By 2030 international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel
methanol shore power and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport Hybrid solutions however might
prevail in the long term at least New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
2
Contents
Introduction
Page 3-6
01Future Developments in Marine Economy
Growing Maritime Trade
Growing Usage of Maritime Resources
Growing Maritime Power Production
Growing Maritime Tourism
Page 7-14
02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
Intensifying Competition
Cost of Fuel Environmental Stressors and New Regulations
Page 15-20
03Opportunities and Future Markets
Growing Port Industry
Maritime Technologies and Development of Infrastructures
Sustainable Marine Economy and Shipbuilding Innovations
Maritime Work and Living Spaces
Food from the Sea and Saltwater Desalination
Page 21-29
References
Page 30
Introduction
3
The consumption of natural resources increases
with the growth of the world population
According to current prognoses the population
will keep growing until the end of this century at
least By the year 2100 the number of people
inhabiting the world will have grown from almost
seven billion today to up to eleven billion12 The
hunger and need for energy grows without
restraint In the future more people will use
more energy per capita This is mostly because
the standard of living in developing and emerging
countries will align with that in the western
world By 2040 the global demand for energy
will increase by more than 50 percent compared
to 2010 despite continuously increasing energy
efficiency3
In the new emerging economic
regions the demand for high quality foods and
consumable goods is growing along with the
income
A shortage inaccessibility or finality of resources
could lead to bottlenecks or leaping price
increases with some natural reserves such as
crude oil or high-tech metals A shortage of
drinking water and food will in some regions
increase the danger of conflicts over land and
water distribution Against this background
alternative and innovative resources become
more and more significant and valuable
Corporations and countries alike focus more and
more on access to new thus far economically
unattractive storage methods and power sources
and it is likely that these efforts will intensify in
the medium and long term
The oceans of the world promise to be a nearly
inexhaustible resource Within the next years and
decades management of marine resources will
increase greatly Ecological risks and technical
hurdles still hamper fast and ready access of
maritime resources Extreme conditions in the
deep sea for example pose high demands on
mining methods and technical equipment At the
same time demands grow loud to sustainably
use the oceans as a resource so that we may
benefit from marine reserves in the long term
and can guarantee our survival beyond the 21st
century
4Einfuumlhrung
40 percent of the world population lives in coastal and delta regions and the tendency is growing The consequences of climate changes will pose great challenges particularly to cities
4
5
Without a doubt one of the greatest challenges
facing marine economy is to avoid over-using the
oceans as a source of food resources power
and drinking water (by desalination) or as traffic
work and living space The reduction of fish
stock the warming of oceans by greenhouse gas
emissions as well as the stress placed on marine
ecosystems by pollutants and plastic waste are
only a few examples demonstrating that the
oceans are endangered already At the same
time these dangers offer opportunities for
example in the area of environmental
technologies Within marine economy the area
of sustainable marine economy will become a
multi-billion-market
Making the oceans accessible as a resource
requires a continuous development of the
maritime infrastructure This is a significant
future market for ship machine and plant
manufacturing companies The oceans will also
become more and more significant as transport
area As a result of the ever growing globalization
and changing spare time behaviors the growing
need for the transportation of goods and
passengers offers opportunities for companies
involved in the marine traffic and port industries
Developing coastal regions and a growing
environmentally responsible ocean tourism
promise ldquobluerdquo growth as well Tourism the
largest sector of the maritime industry creates
more than two million jobs in the European Union
and generates an added value of more than 100
billion Euro a year5
In the future the oceans and coastal regions will
be both work and living spaces for a growing
percentage of the world population Hundreds of
millions of people live on land located less than
five meters above sea level and the tendency is
growing Many of these rapidly growing mega-
cities expand in coastal and delta regions There
the ocean is not just an economic factor but
due to global warming a threat as well Rising
sea levels and increasingly extreme weather will
result in higher financial expenditures and
innovative technological methodology in the
segment of flood protection for coastal regions
Introduction
6
Future Markets in Marine Economy
Sustainable Marine Economy Growing Port Industry
Growing Usage of Maritime Resources
Growing Maritime Power Production
Development of Maritime Infrastructures
Maritime Technologies
Innovations in Shipbuilding Maritime Work and Living SpacesMarine Economy Growing Maritime Tourism
7
01Future Developments in Marine Economy
8
Which Trends Influence the Future of Marine Economy
Shortage of Resources Climate ChangesRising Demand for Food
Globalization Growth of Global Population New Economic Powers Urbanization
Shortage of Oil
Energy Innovations Demand for ExperiencesEcological Sustainability AutomationRobotization
9
Global trade will keep growing driven by forces
such as the continuing globalization and the
development of a broad and spend-happy middle
class in the emerging economic regions While
today about 60 percent of the global middle class
live in the developing and emerging countries by
the year 2030 it will be about 80 percent6 In the
same time period world trade will grow an
average of eight percent per year7 Marine trade
will more than double from todaylsquos nine billion
tons to 19 to 24 billion tons in the year 20308
Logistics companies port management ship
builders and their suppliers will benefit from
growing container traffic Following the over
capacity due to the economic crisis the demand
for new ships will grow by the year 20209 In
addition the average transport capacity and size
of container chips will keep growing To save
costs the shipsrsquo fuel efficiency and technical
equipment must improve continuously
Networking and automation are fields that will
become particularly significant
Future Developments in Marine Economy
10Future Developments in Marine Economy
The ocean holds huge resources from protein-
rich fish to crude oil gas and methane hydrate
as well as economically interesting minerals and
metals Biological resources are also useful in
fields such as cosmetics and medication
By the year 2030 food production will have to
increase by 50 percent to cover the growing need
of the world population Protecting the oceans as
one of the most important food sources will be a
particularly significant task because overfishing
of some fish stock is already an issue today
Products from wild catches are being replaced by
aquaculture ie controlled breeding Between
2012 and 2019 the global market for aquaculture
will grow by almost 50 percent to a total of 195
billion10 This development has a particularly
negative impact on developing countries where
peoplersquos livelihood is directly or indirectly
dependent on fishing or where nutritional
resources diminish by continued overfishing
Should fish stock be further decimated in the
future fishing regulations might tighten and
quotas intensify considerably
In the medium and long term increasing
commodity prices will make deep sea mining
attractive In the future ore in form of
manganese modules cobalt crusts and massive
sulfides will be mined as far as 4000 meters
below the surface11 Particularly manganese
modules which are rich in non-ferrous metals
provide high hopes because these metals are
used for the production of of modern high-tech
products such as smart phones solar cells wind
power plants or electric vehicles Sustainable
mining which is to say mining that will not put
too much strain on the ecosystem of the ocean
floor will provide a great challenge If we wish to
safeguard our resources in the long term the
mining of marine mineral resources is of strategic
importance Access to and research of these
resources are regulated by the International
Seabed Authority of the United Nations The rules
for commercial mining have not yet been
defined12
Between 2010 and 2040 the amount of oil mined in the deep sea will increase by more than 150 percent
13
11Future Developments in Marine Economy
Future Developments in Marine Economy 12
Nautilus Minerals from Canada is the first
company planning the mining of massive sulfides
from the seabed14 Germany owns research
licenses for two areas in the Pacific
The future of energy production also lies in the
oceans Globally about one third of natural gas
and oil is mined in the ocean and the tendency
is increasing15 The dependence of the global
economy on fossil fuels has risen to a precarious
level Almost all industrialized countries have to
import oil to cover their needs While the global
use of oil keeps growing quickly experts fear
that the maximum might be reached soon The
mining of new power sources which thus far are
not economically viable and the development of
new mining technologies are becoming more
significant In order to mine oil and gas in the
deep sea swimming platforms for example will
be needed Between 2010 and 2030 their
number will more than double to a total of 600
world wide16 In the future plants that can
operate directly on the seabed at depths of
several thousand meters will likely play an
increased role as well Suitable technologies
could revolutionize the offshore mining of natural
gas and oil and be far more cost effective than
todays platform-based plants
One of the largest fossil energy sources is
methane hydrate Countries investing most on
researching this energy source are Japan and the
USA In 2013 Japanese scientists were able to
mine gas stored one kilometer below sea level
and buried more than 300 meters deep in the
seabed Commercial mining is supposed to
commence by 2018 Offshore methane hydrate
resources could provide Japan with energy for
more than 100 years17 There are still
technological hurdles to overcome In addition
mining harbors geological and ecological risks
In addition to providing a large supply of energy
sources the oceans are also an energy source
itself Energy from wave tide and current power
plants will become a more significant part of the
regenerative energy mix The future market
marine energy is interesting for established plant
manufacturers as well as for innovative start-ups
13
Between 2013 and 2020 the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide
18
Future Developments in Marine Economy
14
The Finnish company Minesto for example
developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite
tethered to the seabed which moves with the
ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine
and a generator19
Offshore wind power will grow to become one of
the largest segments in the market for renewable
energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an
increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030
Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos
wind power will more than double to a total of 14
billion Euro By 2020 global investments in
offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20
Maritime tourism will become more significant as
well Today about 24 million people work in the
field of coastal and ocean tourism of which
150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past
few years this market has experienced an
enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the
number of passengers rose from 12 million to
213 million world wide a total growth of 77
percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers
will increase by an additional three million to a
total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect
passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have
to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding
industry will profit The trend toward experience
travel will increase the demand for specialized
tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)
Within the premium travel segment mobile
islands underwater hotels and submarine travel
could be an interesting growth market The
company Deep Ocean Technology for example
develops technologies for underwater hotels
The hotel room segments can be lowered up to
30 meters below sea level Plans to implement
such a prestigious project are already in
existence25
Future Developments in Marine Economy
15
02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
16
The competition for the economic usage of
maritime space and coastal regions will intensify
For example offshore wind park operators
compete with fisheries for space neighboring
states in the Arctic fiercely compete for
resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone
and cruise ship companies fight for the best
berths and mooring times in the most attractive
port cities To the extent that the oceans become
more and more attractive because new
technologies make the oceans a more efficient
and comprehensive fountain of food resources
and energy countries and corporations will
increase their investments and activities to
develop and access this potential Considering
the continuous population growth and the
increasing shortages of resources in a worst
case scenario unresolved or overlapping
territorial claims could turn violent and provoke
political conflict For example China and other
neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the
Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea
where experts assume large sources of raw
materials
Marine economy particularly ocean trade is
strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world
economy The world wide financial crisis had led
to a significantly reduced demand for shipping
space as well as cancellations and decreased
orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the
container ship building industry particularly in
Asia the German ship building industry had to
restructure and refocus building offshore-
oriented specialty ships instead of container
ships26 The question is how long will it take for
suppliers from emerging countries particularly
from China to enter the market for tailor-made
ships and offer them at lower costs There are
dramatic changes in the balance of the world
economy Developing and emerging countries will
provide an ever larger portion of the workforce
capital technology and trade volume By 2050
experts predict growth beyond average for the
BRIC states Their share of the global social
product will grow significantly
Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges
17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets
27
As soon as ten years from now China might
replace the United States as the largest national
economy in the world Today China is already
the largest container market In addition Chinese
banks could push into the market of ship
financing while German banks reduced their
involvement in this sector following the financial
crises In the future German ship owners
interested in investing might be forced to seek
financing from Chinese banks This could have a
negative impact on the German supplier industry
The competition between individual ports will
also intensify in the future Because container
ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer
central ports will handle an ever growing portion
of the sea trade For example within the next
few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its
container business to the JadeWeser port in
Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that
is independent of the tides and therefore
attractive to giant freighters28 International
relations change too While Hamburg used to
be among the largest container ports in the
world today it ranks only in 16th place By now
six of the top ten ports in the world are in
China29
Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges
to maritime traffic Although we seem to have
skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the
mining maximum by the expansion and
increased economic viability of unconventional oil
mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil
boom likely only defers the problem to a later
time
There are no clear predictions since a decrease
of conventional oil mining will result in higher
investments in research and development of
unconventional oil resources The danger
remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will
increase continuously or at the very least be
volatile In addition modernizing refineries will
result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-
product although the demand will keep rising
For several years now ship owners have tried to
reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with
slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies
18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
19
Sustainability is becoming ever more significant
in all trades The discussion of climate protection
involves marine traffic as well Due to new
environmental regulations the shipping industry
will face major challenges in the coming years
Increased restrictions that limit the emission of
harmful substances will require the use of
expensive fuels or investment in new filtering
and propulsion technologies Among other things
this will lead to additional cost increases for
container freight30 In 2008 the International
Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits
for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease
of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the
current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In
emission control areas an even stricter limit of
10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to
01 percent by 201531
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
20
Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)
32
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
21
03Opportunities and
Future Markets
22
Economic globalization will continue in the
coming years Adjusted for price the value of the
world wide trade of goods will grow from ten
billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars
in 203033 This development will benefit the port
industry too This industry includes all activities
involved in the value creation process of loading
and unloading goods as well as the transfer of
ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and
2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year
to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will
grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By
2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50
percent within the European Union35
Improving site conditions will become ever more
important for the individual ports for example
increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces
or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks
and train The German government focuses
current investments on the expansion of seaward
access roads as well as effective inland
connections36 Globally the need for investments
in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40
billion Euro a year by 203037
Ports will also
benefit from the growth of marine power
production For example ports will play an
increasingly central role in the value chain of
offshore wind energy There are future
opportunities in the fields of montage transfer
and service38 However ports will have to invest
heavily to be able to expand their capacities
accordingly
The significance of automation and safety
technologies will increase due to the growing
transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on
data that create a network of all actors involved
in the port economy promise additional
efficiency To guarantee international
competitiveness the cooperation between
individual ports might become increasingly
relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of
the cooperation between ports in Northern
Germany to improve the port location Germany39
Opportunities and Future Markets
23Opportunities and Future Markets
By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year
40
24
The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the
marine economy It connects ports
transportation methods and companies and
guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and
people The development of the oceans as a
source of food natural resources and energy
increases the need for an expansion of offshore
infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms
at ever greater distances to the shore require
new foundations and basic structures Innovative
technological solutions can significantly
contribute to a more cost efficient operation of
such plants The demand for specialists to
transport and mount materials and components
on site will grow The market for offshore supply
ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in
2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is
an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage
of goods natural resources and energy on
specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring
great logistic advantages for loading and
unloading procedures42 The expansion of an
underwater infrastructure for power cables will
be important to the energy transport particularly
to the transport of renewable energies Within
the next ten years the number of underwater
high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of
30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater
power cable will connect Norway and Germany
helping to level green power fluctuations
Opportunities and challenges in the area of
marine economy boost numerous technological
developments Maritime technologies are a
separate future market within the area of marine
economy They are particularly important to the
fields of ship technology energy mining the
mining of natural resources and the expansion
of maritime infrastructure Additional applications
are in the areas of measurement environment
and security technology Intelligent and
autonomous systems that can operate in great
depths are highly significant44 The Canadian
start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean
Institute for Marine Science and Technology and
the British company Seabed Resources want to
use highly modern robots to mine natural
resources in the deep sea
Opportunities and Future Markets
robust
25Opportunities and Future Markets
Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45
intelligent
sustainable
autonomous
26
In the middle and long term the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks
after several boats at the same time To make
unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well because todayrsquos engine technology
requires far too much maintenance46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining maritime energy production and more47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods but
also alternative propulsion methods Liquid
natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant
in the future The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship The ship is supposed to
start operating in 201548 By 2030 international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel
methanol shore power and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport Hybrid solutions however might
prevail in the long term at least New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
Introduction
3
The consumption of natural resources increases
with the growth of the world population
According to current prognoses the population
will keep growing until the end of this century at
least By the year 2100 the number of people
inhabiting the world will have grown from almost
seven billion today to up to eleven billion12 The
hunger and need for energy grows without
restraint In the future more people will use
more energy per capita This is mostly because
the standard of living in developing and emerging
countries will align with that in the western
world By 2040 the global demand for energy
will increase by more than 50 percent compared
to 2010 despite continuously increasing energy
efficiency3
In the new emerging economic
regions the demand for high quality foods and
consumable goods is growing along with the
income
A shortage inaccessibility or finality of resources
could lead to bottlenecks or leaping price
increases with some natural reserves such as
crude oil or high-tech metals A shortage of
drinking water and food will in some regions
increase the danger of conflicts over land and
water distribution Against this background
alternative and innovative resources become
more and more significant and valuable
Corporations and countries alike focus more and
more on access to new thus far economically
unattractive storage methods and power sources
and it is likely that these efforts will intensify in
the medium and long term
The oceans of the world promise to be a nearly
inexhaustible resource Within the next years and
decades management of marine resources will
increase greatly Ecological risks and technical
hurdles still hamper fast and ready access of
maritime resources Extreme conditions in the
deep sea for example pose high demands on
mining methods and technical equipment At the
same time demands grow loud to sustainably
use the oceans as a resource so that we may
benefit from marine reserves in the long term
and can guarantee our survival beyond the 21st
century
4Einfuumlhrung
40 percent of the world population lives in coastal and delta regions and the tendency is growing The consequences of climate changes will pose great challenges particularly to cities
4
5
Without a doubt one of the greatest challenges
facing marine economy is to avoid over-using the
oceans as a source of food resources power
and drinking water (by desalination) or as traffic
work and living space The reduction of fish
stock the warming of oceans by greenhouse gas
emissions as well as the stress placed on marine
ecosystems by pollutants and plastic waste are
only a few examples demonstrating that the
oceans are endangered already At the same
time these dangers offer opportunities for
example in the area of environmental
technologies Within marine economy the area
of sustainable marine economy will become a
multi-billion-market
Making the oceans accessible as a resource
requires a continuous development of the
maritime infrastructure This is a significant
future market for ship machine and plant
manufacturing companies The oceans will also
become more and more significant as transport
area As a result of the ever growing globalization
and changing spare time behaviors the growing
need for the transportation of goods and
passengers offers opportunities for companies
involved in the marine traffic and port industries
Developing coastal regions and a growing
environmentally responsible ocean tourism
promise ldquobluerdquo growth as well Tourism the
largest sector of the maritime industry creates
more than two million jobs in the European Union
and generates an added value of more than 100
billion Euro a year5
In the future the oceans and coastal regions will
be both work and living spaces for a growing
percentage of the world population Hundreds of
millions of people live on land located less than
five meters above sea level and the tendency is
growing Many of these rapidly growing mega-
cities expand in coastal and delta regions There
the ocean is not just an economic factor but
due to global warming a threat as well Rising
sea levels and increasingly extreme weather will
result in higher financial expenditures and
innovative technological methodology in the
segment of flood protection for coastal regions
Introduction
6
Future Markets in Marine Economy
Sustainable Marine Economy Growing Port Industry
Growing Usage of Maritime Resources
Growing Maritime Power Production
Development of Maritime Infrastructures
Maritime Technologies
Innovations in Shipbuilding Maritime Work and Living SpacesMarine Economy Growing Maritime Tourism
7
01Future Developments in Marine Economy
8
Which Trends Influence the Future of Marine Economy
Shortage of Resources Climate ChangesRising Demand for Food
Globalization Growth of Global Population New Economic Powers Urbanization
Shortage of Oil
Energy Innovations Demand for ExperiencesEcological Sustainability AutomationRobotization
9
Global trade will keep growing driven by forces
such as the continuing globalization and the
development of a broad and spend-happy middle
class in the emerging economic regions While
today about 60 percent of the global middle class
live in the developing and emerging countries by
the year 2030 it will be about 80 percent6 In the
same time period world trade will grow an
average of eight percent per year7 Marine trade
will more than double from todaylsquos nine billion
tons to 19 to 24 billion tons in the year 20308
Logistics companies port management ship
builders and their suppliers will benefit from
growing container traffic Following the over
capacity due to the economic crisis the demand
for new ships will grow by the year 20209 In
addition the average transport capacity and size
of container chips will keep growing To save
costs the shipsrsquo fuel efficiency and technical
equipment must improve continuously
Networking and automation are fields that will
become particularly significant
Future Developments in Marine Economy
10Future Developments in Marine Economy
The ocean holds huge resources from protein-
rich fish to crude oil gas and methane hydrate
as well as economically interesting minerals and
metals Biological resources are also useful in
fields such as cosmetics and medication
By the year 2030 food production will have to
increase by 50 percent to cover the growing need
of the world population Protecting the oceans as
one of the most important food sources will be a
particularly significant task because overfishing
of some fish stock is already an issue today
Products from wild catches are being replaced by
aquaculture ie controlled breeding Between
2012 and 2019 the global market for aquaculture
will grow by almost 50 percent to a total of 195
billion10 This development has a particularly
negative impact on developing countries where
peoplersquos livelihood is directly or indirectly
dependent on fishing or where nutritional
resources diminish by continued overfishing
Should fish stock be further decimated in the
future fishing regulations might tighten and
quotas intensify considerably
In the medium and long term increasing
commodity prices will make deep sea mining
attractive In the future ore in form of
manganese modules cobalt crusts and massive
sulfides will be mined as far as 4000 meters
below the surface11 Particularly manganese
modules which are rich in non-ferrous metals
provide high hopes because these metals are
used for the production of of modern high-tech
products such as smart phones solar cells wind
power plants or electric vehicles Sustainable
mining which is to say mining that will not put
too much strain on the ecosystem of the ocean
floor will provide a great challenge If we wish to
safeguard our resources in the long term the
mining of marine mineral resources is of strategic
importance Access to and research of these
resources are regulated by the International
Seabed Authority of the United Nations The rules
for commercial mining have not yet been
defined12
Between 2010 and 2040 the amount of oil mined in the deep sea will increase by more than 150 percent
13
11Future Developments in Marine Economy
Future Developments in Marine Economy 12
Nautilus Minerals from Canada is the first
company planning the mining of massive sulfides
from the seabed14 Germany owns research
licenses for two areas in the Pacific
The future of energy production also lies in the
oceans Globally about one third of natural gas
and oil is mined in the ocean and the tendency
is increasing15 The dependence of the global
economy on fossil fuels has risen to a precarious
level Almost all industrialized countries have to
import oil to cover their needs While the global
use of oil keeps growing quickly experts fear
that the maximum might be reached soon The
mining of new power sources which thus far are
not economically viable and the development of
new mining technologies are becoming more
significant In order to mine oil and gas in the
deep sea swimming platforms for example will
be needed Between 2010 and 2030 their
number will more than double to a total of 600
world wide16 In the future plants that can
operate directly on the seabed at depths of
several thousand meters will likely play an
increased role as well Suitable technologies
could revolutionize the offshore mining of natural
gas and oil and be far more cost effective than
todays platform-based plants
One of the largest fossil energy sources is
methane hydrate Countries investing most on
researching this energy source are Japan and the
USA In 2013 Japanese scientists were able to
mine gas stored one kilometer below sea level
and buried more than 300 meters deep in the
seabed Commercial mining is supposed to
commence by 2018 Offshore methane hydrate
resources could provide Japan with energy for
more than 100 years17 There are still
technological hurdles to overcome In addition
mining harbors geological and ecological risks
In addition to providing a large supply of energy
sources the oceans are also an energy source
itself Energy from wave tide and current power
plants will become a more significant part of the
regenerative energy mix The future market
marine energy is interesting for established plant
manufacturers as well as for innovative start-ups
13
Between 2013 and 2020 the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide
18
Future Developments in Marine Economy
14
The Finnish company Minesto for example
developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite
tethered to the seabed which moves with the
ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine
and a generator19
Offshore wind power will grow to become one of
the largest segments in the market for renewable
energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an
increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030
Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos
wind power will more than double to a total of 14
billion Euro By 2020 global investments in
offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20
Maritime tourism will become more significant as
well Today about 24 million people work in the
field of coastal and ocean tourism of which
150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past
few years this market has experienced an
enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the
number of passengers rose from 12 million to
213 million world wide a total growth of 77
percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers
will increase by an additional three million to a
total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect
passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have
to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding
industry will profit The trend toward experience
travel will increase the demand for specialized
tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)
Within the premium travel segment mobile
islands underwater hotels and submarine travel
could be an interesting growth market The
company Deep Ocean Technology for example
develops technologies for underwater hotels
The hotel room segments can be lowered up to
30 meters below sea level Plans to implement
such a prestigious project are already in
existence25
Future Developments in Marine Economy
15
02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
16
The competition for the economic usage of
maritime space and coastal regions will intensify
For example offshore wind park operators
compete with fisheries for space neighboring
states in the Arctic fiercely compete for
resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone
and cruise ship companies fight for the best
berths and mooring times in the most attractive
port cities To the extent that the oceans become
more and more attractive because new
technologies make the oceans a more efficient
and comprehensive fountain of food resources
and energy countries and corporations will
increase their investments and activities to
develop and access this potential Considering
the continuous population growth and the
increasing shortages of resources in a worst
case scenario unresolved or overlapping
territorial claims could turn violent and provoke
political conflict For example China and other
neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the
Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea
where experts assume large sources of raw
materials
Marine economy particularly ocean trade is
strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world
economy The world wide financial crisis had led
to a significantly reduced demand for shipping
space as well as cancellations and decreased
orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the
container ship building industry particularly in
Asia the German ship building industry had to
restructure and refocus building offshore-
oriented specialty ships instead of container
ships26 The question is how long will it take for
suppliers from emerging countries particularly
from China to enter the market for tailor-made
ships and offer them at lower costs There are
dramatic changes in the balance of the world
economy Developing and emerging countries will
provide an ever larger portion of the workforce
capital technology and trade volume By 2050
experts predict growth beyond average for the
BRIC states Their share of the global social
product will grow significantly
Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges
17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets
27
As soon as ten years from now China might
replace the United States as the largest national
economy in the world Today China is already
the largest container market In addition Chinese
banks could push into the market of ship
financing while German banks reduced their
involvement in this sector following the financial
crises In the future German ship owners
interested in investing might be forced to seek
financing from Chinese banks This could have a
negative impact on the German supplier industry
The competition between individual ports will
also intensify in the future Because container
ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer
central ports will handle an ever growing portion
of the sea trade For example within the next
few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its
container business to the JadeWeser port in
Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that
is independent of the tides and therefore
attractive to giant freighters28 International
relations change too While Hamburg used to
be among the largest container ports in the
world today it ranks only in 16th place By now
six of the top ten ports in the world are in
China29
Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges
to maritime traffic Although we seem to have
skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the
mining maximum by the expansion and
increased economic viability of unconventional oil
mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil
boom likely only defers the problem to a later
time
There are no clear predictions since a decrease
of conventional oil mining will result in higher
investments in research and development of
unconventional oil resources The danger
remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will
increase continuously or at the very least be
volatile In addition modernizing refineries will
result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-
product although the demand will keep rising
For several years now ship owners have tried to
reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with
slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies
18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
19
Sustainability is becoming ever more significant
in all trades The discussion of climate protection
involves marine traffic as well Due to new
environmental regulations the shipping industry
will face major challenges in the coming years
Increased restrictions that limit the emission of
harmful substances will require the use of
expensive fuels or investment in new filtering
and propulsion technologies Among other things
this will lead to additional cost increases for
container freight30 In 2008 the International
Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits
for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease
of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the
current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In
emission control areas an even stricter limit of
10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to
01 percent by 201531
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
20
Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)
32
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
21
03Opportunities and
Future Markets
22
Economic globalization will continue in the
coming years Adjusted for price the value of the
world wide trade of goods will grow from ten
billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars
in 203033 This development will benefit the port
industry too This industry includes all activities
involved in the value creation process of loading
and unloading goods as well as the transfer of
ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and
2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year
to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will
grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By
2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50
percent within the European Union35
Improving site conditions will become ever more
important for the individual ports for example
increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces
or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks
and train The German government focuses
current investments on the expansion of seaward
access roads as well as effective inland
connections36 Globally the need for investments
in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40
billion Euro a year by 203037
Ports will also
benefit from the growth of marine power
production For example ports will play an
increasingly central role in the value chain of
offshore wind energy There are future
opportunities in the fields of montage transfer
and service38 However ports will have to invest
heavily to be able to expand their capacities
accordingly
The significance of automation and safety
technologies will increase due to the growing
transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on
data that create a network of all actors involved
in the port economy promise additional
efficiency To guarantee international
competitiveness the cooperation between
individual ports might become increasingly
relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of
the cooperation between ports in Northern
Germany to improve the port location Germany39
Opportunities and Future Markets
23Opportunities and Future Markets
By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year
40
24
The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the
marine economy It connects ports
transportation methods and companies and
guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and
people The development of the oceans as a
source of food natural resources and energy
increases the need for an expansion of offshore
infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms
at ever greater distances to the shore require
new foundations and basic structures Innovative
technological solutions can significantly
contribute to a more cost efficient operation of
such plants The demand for specialists to
transport and mount materials and components
on site will grow The market for offshore supply
ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in
2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is
an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage
of goods natural resources and energy on
specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring
great logistic advantages for loading and
unloading procedures42 The expansion of an
underwater infrastructure for power cables will
be important to the energy transport particularly
to the transport of renewable energies Within
the next ten years the number of underwater
high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of
30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater
power cable will connect Norway and Germany
helping to level green power fluctuations
Opportunities and challenges in the area of
marine economy boost numerous technological
developments Maritime technologies are a
separate future market within the area of marine
economy They are particularly important to the
fields of ship technology energy mining the
mining of natural resources and the expansion
of maritime infrastructure Additional applications
are in the areas of measurement environment
and security technology Intelligent and
autonomous systems that can operate in great
depths are highly significant44 The Canadian
start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean
Institute for Marine Science and Technology and
the British company Seabed Resources want to
use highly modern robots to mine natural
resources in the deep sea
Opportunities and Future Markets
robust
25Opportunities and Future Markets
Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45
intelligent
sustainable
autonomous
26
In the middle and long term the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks
after several boats at the same time To make
unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well because todayrsquos engine technology
requires far too much maintenance46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining maritime energy production and more47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods but
also alternative propulsion methods Liquid
natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant
in the future The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship The ship is supposed to
start operating in 201548 By 2030 international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel
methanol shore power and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport Hybrid solutions however might
prevail in the long term at least New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
4Einfuumlhrung
40 percent of the world population lives in coastal and delta regions and the tendency is growing The consequences of climate changes will pose great challenges particularly to cities
4
5
Without a doubt one of the greatest challenges
facing marine economy is to avoid over-using the
oceans as a source of food resources power
and drinking water (by desalination) or as traffic
work and living space The reduction of fish
stock the warming of oceans by greenhouse gas
emissions as well as the stress placed on marine
ecosystems by pollutants and plastic waste are
only a few examples demonstrating that the
oceans are endangered already At the same
time these dangers offer opportunities for
example in the area of environmental
technologies Within marine economy the area
of sustainable marine economy will become a
multi-billion-market
Making the oceans accessible as a resource
requires a continuous development of the
maritime infrastructure This is a significant
future market for ship machine and plant
manufacturing companies The oceans will also
become more and more significant as transport
area As a result of the ever growing globalization
and changing spare time behaviors the growing
need for the transportation of goods and
passengers offers opportunities for companies
involved in the marine traffic and port industries
Developing coastal regions and a growing
environmentally responsible ocean tourism
promise ldquobluerdquo growth as well Tourism the
largest sector of the maritime industry creates
more than two million jobs in the European Union
and generates an added value of more than 100
billion Euro a year5
In the future the oceans and coastal regions will
be both work and living spaces for a growing
percentage of the world population Hundreds of
millions of people live on land located less than
five meters above sea level and the tendency is
growing Many of these rapidly growing mega-
cities expand in coastal and delta regions There
the ocean is not just an economic factor but
due to global warming a threat as well Rising
sea levels and increasingly extreme weather will
result in higher financial expenditures and
innovative technological methodology in the
segment of flood protection for coastal regions
Introduction
6
Future Markets in Marine Economy
Sustainable Marine Economy Growing Port Industry
Growing Usage of Maritime Resources
Growing Maritime Power Production
Development of Maritime Infrastructures
Maritime Technologies
Innovations in Shipbuilding Maritime Work and Living SpacesMarine Economy Growing Maritime Tourism
7
01Future Developments in Marine Economy
8
Which Trends Influence the Future of Marine Economy
Shortage of Resources Climate ChangesRising Demand for Food
Globalization Growth of Global Population New Economic Powers Urbanization
Shortage of Oil
Energy Innovations Demand for ExperiencesEcological Sustainability AutomationRobotization
9
Global trade will keep growing driven by forces
such as the continuing globalization and the
development of a broad and spend-happy middle
class in the emerging economic regions While
today about 60 percent of the global middle class
live in the developing and emerging countries by
the year 2030 it will be about 80 percent6 In the
same time period world trade will grow an
average of eight percent per year7 Marine trade
will more than double from todaylsquos nine billion
tons to 19 to 24 billion tons in the year 20308
Logistics companies port management ship
builders and their suppliers will benefit from
growing container traffic Following the over
capacity due to the economic crisis the demand
for new ships will grow by the year 20209 In
addition the average transport capacity and size
of container chips will keep growing To save
costs the shipsrsquo fuel efficiency and technical
equipment must improve continuously
Networking and automation are fields that will
become particularly significant
Future Developments in Marine Economy
10Future Developments in Marine Economy
The ocean holds huge resources from protein-
rich fish to crude oil gas and methane hydrate
as well as economically interesting minerals and
metals Biological resources are also useful in
fields such as cosmetics and medication
By the year 2030 food production will have to
increase by 50 percent to cover the growing need
of the world population Protecting the oceans as
one of the most important food sources will be a
particularly significant task because overfishing
of some fish stock is already an issue today
Products from wild catches are being replaced by
aquaculture ie controlled breeding Between
2012 and 2019 the global market for aquaculture
will grow by almost 50 percent to a total of 195
billion10 This development has a particularly
negative impact on developing countries where
peoplersquos livelihood is directly or indirectly
dependent on fishing or where nutritional
resources diminish by continued overfishing
Should fish stock be further decimated in the
future fishing regulations might tighten and
quotas intensify considerably
In the medium and long term increasing
commodity prices will make deep sea mining
attractive In the future ore in form of
manganese modules cobalt crusts and massive
sulfides will be mined as far as 4000 meters
below the surface11 Particularly manganese
modules which are rich in non-ferrous metals
provide high hopes because these metals are
used for the production of of modern high-tech
products such as smart phones solar cells wind
power plants or electric vehicles Sustainable
mining which is to say mining that will not put
too much strain on the ecosystem of the ocean
floor will provide a great challenge If we wish to
safeguard our resources in the long term the
mining of marine mineral resources is of strategic
importance Access to and research of these
resources are regulated by the International
Seabed Authority of the United Nations The rules
for commercial mining have not yet been
defined12
Between 2010 and 2040 the amount of oil mined in the deep sea will increase by more than 150 percent
13
11Future Developments in Marine Economy
Future Developments in Marine Economy 12
Nautilus Minerals from Canada is the first
company planning the mining of massive sulfides
from the seabed14 Germany owns research
licenses for two areas in the Pacific
The future of energy production also lies in the
oceans Globally about one third of natural gas
and oil is mined in the ocean and the tendency
is increasing15 The dependence of the global
economy on fossil fuels has risen to a precarious
level Almost all industrialized countries have to
import oil to cover their needs While the global
use of oil keeps growing quickly experts fear
that the maximum might be reached soon The
mining of new power sources which thus far are
not economically viable and the development of
new mining technologies are becoming more
significant In order to mine oil and gas in the
deep sea swimming platforms for example will
be needed Between 2010 and 2030 their
number will more than double to a total of 600
world wide16 In the future plants that can
operate directly on the seabed at depths of
several thousand meters will likely play an
increased role as well Suitable technologies
could revolutionize the offshore mining of natural
gas and oil and be far more cost effective than
todays platform-based plants
One of the largest fossil energy sources is
methane hydrate Countries investing most on
researching this energy source are Japan and the
USA In 2013 Japanese scientists were able to
mine gas stored one kilometer below sea level
and buried more than 300 meters deep in the
seabed Commercial mining is supposed to
commence by 2018 Offshore methane hydrate
resources could provide Japan with energy for
more than 100 years17 There are still
technological hurdles to overcome In addition
mining harbors geological and ecological risks
In addition to providing a large supply of energy
sources the oceans are also an energy source
itself Energy from wave tide and current power
plants will become a more significant part of the
regenerative energy mix The future market
marine energy is interesting for established plant
manufacturers as well as for innovative start-ups
13
Between 2013 and 2020 the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide
18
Future Developments in Marine Economy
14
The Finnish company Minesto for example
developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite
tethered to the seabed which moves with the
ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine
and a generator19
Offshore wind power will grow to become one of
the largest segments in the market for renewable
energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an
increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030
Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos
wind power will more than double to a total of 14
billion Euro By 2020 global investments in
offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20
Maritime tourism will become more significant as
well Today about 24 million people work in the
field of coastal and ocean tourism of which
150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past
few years this market has experienced an
enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the
number of passengers rose from 12 million to
213 million world wide a total growth of 77
percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers
will increase by an additional three million to a
total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect
passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have
to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding
industry will profit The trend toward experience
travel will increase the demand for specialized
tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)
Within the premium travel segment mobile
islands underwater hotels and submarine travel
could be an interesting growth market The
company Deep Ocean Technology for example
develops technologies for underwater hotels
The hotel room segments can be lowered up to
30 meters below sea level Plans to implement
such a prestigious project are already in
existence25
Future Developments in Marine Economy
15
02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
16
The competition for the economic usage of
maritime space and coastal regions will intensify
For example offshore wind park operators
compete with fisheries for space neighboring
states in the Arctic fiercely compete for
resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone
and cruise ship companies fight for the best
berths and mooring times in the most attractive
port cities To the extent that the oceans become
more and more attractive because new
technologies make the oceans a more efficient
and comprehensive fountain of food resources
and energy countries and corporations will
increase their investments and activities to
develop and access this potential Considering
the continuous population growth and the
increasing shortages of resources in a worst
case scenario unresolved or overlapping
territorial claims could turn violent and provoke
political conflict For example China and other
neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the
Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea
where experts assume large sources of raw
materials
Marine economy particularly ocean trade is
strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world
economy The world wide financial crisis had led
to a significantly reduced demand for shipping
space as well as cancellations and decreased
orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the
container ship building industry particularly in
Asia the German ship building industry had to
restructure and refocus building offshore-
oriented specialty ships instead of container
ships26 The question is how long will it take for
suppliers from emerging countries particularly
from China to enter the market for tailor-made
ships and offer them at lower costs There are
dramatic changes in the balance of the world
economy Developing and emerging countries will
provide an ever larger portion of the workforce
capital technology and trade volume By 2050
experts predict growth beyond average for the
BRIC states Their share of the global social
product will grow significantly
Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges
17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets
27
As soon as ten years from now China might
replace the United States as the largest national
economy in the world Today China is already
the largest container market In addition Chinese
banks could push into the market of ship
financing while German banks reduced their
involvement in this sector following the financial
crises In the future German ship owners
interested in investing might be forced to seek
financing from Chinese banks This could have a
negative impact on the German supplier industry
The competition between individual ports will
also intensify in the future Because container
ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer
central ports will handle an ever growing portion
of the sea trade For example within the next
few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its
container business to the JadeWeser port in
Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that
is independent of the tides and therefore
attractive to giant freighters28 International
relations change too While Hamburg used to
be among the largest container ports in the
world today it ranks only in 16th place By now
six of the top ten ports in the world are in
China29
Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges
to maritime traffic Although we seem to have
skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the
mining maximum by the expansion and
increased economic viability of unconventional oil
mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil
boom likely only defers the problem to a later
time
There are no clear predictions since a decrease
of conventional oil mining will result in higher
investments in research and development of
unconventional oil resources The danger
remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will
increase continuously or at the very least be
volatile In addition modernizing refineries will
result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-
product although the demand will keep rising
For several years now ship owners have tried to
reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with
slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies
18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
19
Sustainability is becoming ever more significant
in all trades The discussion of climate protection
involves marine traffic as well Due to new
environmental regulations the shipping industry
will face major challenges in the coming years
Increased restrictions that limit the emission of
harmful substances will require the use of
expensive fuels or investment in new filtering
and propulsion technologies Among other things
this will lead to additional cost increases for
container freight30 In 2008 the International
Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits
for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease
of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the
current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In
emission control areas an even stricter limit of
10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to
01 percent by 201531
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
20
Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)
32
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
21
03Opportunities and
Future Markets
22
Economic globalization will continue in the
coming years Adjusted for price the value of the
world wide trade of goods will grow from ten
billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars
in 203033 This development will benefit the port
industry too This industry includes all activities
involved in the value creation process of loading
and unloading goods as well as the transfer of
ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and
2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year
to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will
grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By
2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50
percent within the European Union35
Improving site conditions will become ever more
important for the individual ports for example
increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces
or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks
and train The German government focuses
current investments on the expansion of seaward
access roads as well as effective inland
connections36 Globally the need for investments
in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40
billion Euro a year by 203037
Ports will also
benefit from the growth of marine power
production For example ports will play an
increasingly central role in the value chain of
offshore wind energy There are future
opportunities in the fields of montage transfer
and service38 However ports will have to invest
heavily to be able to expand their capacities
accordingly
The significance of automation and safety
technologies will increase due to the growing
transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on
data that create a network of all actors involved
in the port economy promise additional
efficiency To guarantee international
competitiveness the cooperation between
individual ports might become increasingly
relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of
the cooperation between ports in Northern
Germany to improve the port location Germany39
Opportunities and Future Markets
23Opportunities and Future Markets
By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year
40
24
The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the
marine economy It connects ports
transportation methods and companies and
guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and
people The development of the oceans as a
source of food natural resources and energy
increases the need for an expansion of offshore
infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms
at ever greater distances to the shore require
new foundations and basic structures Innovative
technological solutions can significantly
contribute to a more cost efficient operation of
such plants The demand for specialists to
transport and mount materials and components
on site will grow The market for offshore supply
ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in
2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is
an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage
of goods natural resources and energy on
specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring
great logistic advantages for loading and
unloading procedures42 The expansion of an
underwater infrastructure for power cables will
be important to the energy transport particularly
to the transport of renewable energies Within
the next ten years the number of underwater
high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of
30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater
power cable will connect Norway and Germany
helping to level green power fluctuations
Opportunities and challenges in the area of
marine economy boost numerous technological
developments Maritime technologies are a
separate future market within the area of marine
economy They are particularly important to the
fields of ship technology energy mining the
mining of natural resources and the expansion
of maritime infrastructure Additional applications
are in the areas of measurement environment
and security technology Intelligent and
autonomous systems that can operate in great
depths are highly significant44 The Canadian
start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean
Institute for Marine Science and Technology and
the British company Seabed Resources want to
use highly modern robots to mine natural
resources in the deep sea
Opportunities and Future Markets
robust
25Opportunities and Future Markets
Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45
intelligent
sustainable
autonomous
26
In the middle and long term the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks
after several boats at the same time To make
unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well because todayrsquos engine technology
requires far too much maintenance46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining maritime energy production and more47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods but
also alternative propulsion methods Liquid
natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant
in the future The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship The ship is supposed to
start operating in 201548 By 2030 international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel
methanol shore power and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport Hybrid solutions however might
prevail in the long term at least New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
5
Without a doubt one of the greatest challenges
facing marine economy is to avoid over-using the
oceans as a source of food resources power
and drinking water (by desalination) or as traffic
work and living space The reduction of fish
stock the warming of oceans by greenhouse gas
emissions as well as the stress placed on marine
ecosystems by pollutants and plastic waste are
only a few examples demonstrating that the
oceans are endangered already At the same
time these dangers offer opportunities for
example in the area of environmental
technologies Within marine economy the area
of sustainable marine economy will become a
multi-billion-market
Making the oceans accessible as a resource
requires a continuous development of the
maritime infrastructure This is a significant
future market for ship machine and plant
manufacturing companies The oceans will also
become more and more significant as transport
area As a result of the ever growing globalization
and changing spare time behaviors the growing
need for the transportation of goods and
passengers offers opportunities for companies
involved in the marine traffic and port industries
Developing coastal regions and a growing
environmentally responsible ocean tourism
promise ldquobluerdquo growth as well Tourism the
largest sector of the maritime industry creates
more than two million jobs in the European Union
and generates an added value of more than 100
billion Euro a year5
In the future the oceans and coastal regions will
be both work and living spaces for a growing
percentage of the world population Hundreds of
millions of people live on land located less than
five meters above sea level and the tendency is
growing Many of these rapidly growing mega-
cities expand in coastal and delta regions There
the ocean is not just an economic factor but
due to global warming a threat as well Rising
sea levels and increasingly extreme weather will
result in higher financial expenditures and
innovative technological methodology in the
segment of flood protection for coastal regions
Introduction
6
Future Markets in Marine Economy
Sustainable Marine Economy Growing Port Industry
Growing Usage of Maritime Resources
Growing Maritime Power Production
Development of Maritime Infrastructures
Maritime Technologies
Innovations in Shipbuilding Maritime Work and Living SpacesMarine Economy Growing Maritime Tourism
7
01Future Developments in Marine Economy
8
Which Trends Influence the Future of Marine Economy
Shortage of Resources Climate ChangesRising Demand for Food
Globalization Growth of Global Population New Economic Powers Urbanization
Shortage of Oil
Energy Innovations Demand for ExperiencesEcological Sustainability AutomationRobotization
9
Global trade will keep growing driven by forces
such as the continuing globalization and the
development of a broad and spend-happy middle
class in the emerging economic regions While
today about 60 percent of the global middle class
live in the developing and emerging countries by
the year 2030 it will be about 80 percent6 In the
same time period world trade will grow an
average of eight percent per year7 Marine trade
will more than double from todaylsquos nine billion
tons to 19 to 24 billion tons in the year 20308
Logistics companies port management ship
builders and their suppliers will benefit from
growing container traffic Following the over
capacity due to the economic crisis the demand
for new ships will grow by the year 20209 In
addition the average transport capacity and size
of container chips will keep growing To save
costs the shipsrsquo fuel efficiency and technical
equipment must improve continuously
Networking and automation are fields that will
become particularly significant
Future Developments in Marine Economy
10Future Developments in Marine Economy
The ocean holds huge resources from protein-
rich fish to crude oil gas and methane hydrate
as well as economically interesting minerals and
metals Biological resources are also useful in
fields such as cosmetics and medication
By the year 2030 food production will have to
increase by 50 percent to cover the growing need
of the world population Protecting the oceans as
one of the most important food sources will be a
particularly significant task because overfishing
of some fish stock is already an issue today
Products from wild catches are being replaced by
aquaculture ie controlled breeding Between
2012 and 2019 the global market for aquaculture
will grow by almost 50 percent to a total of 195
billion10 This development has a particularly
negative impact on developing countries where
peoplersquos livelihood is directly or indirectly
dependent on fishing or where nutritional
resources diminish by continued overfishing
Should fish stock be further decimated in the
future fishing regulations might tighten and
quotas intensify considerably
In the medium and long term increasing
commodity prices will make deep sea mining
attractive In the future ore in form of
manganese modules cobalt crusts and massive
sulfides will be mined as far as 4000 meters
below the surface11 Particularly manganese
modules which are rich in non-ferrous metals
provide high hopes because these metals are
used for the production of of modern high-tech
products such as smart phones solar cells wind
power plants or electric vehicles Sustainable
mining which is to say mining that will not put
too much strain on the ecosystem of the ocean
floor will provide a great challenge If we wish to
safeguard our resources in the long term the
mining of marine mineral resources is of strategic
importance Access to and research of these
resources are regulated by the International
Seabed Authority of the United Nations The rules
for commercial mining have not yet been
defined12
Between 2010 and 2040 the amount of oil mined in the deep sea will increase by more than 150 percent
13
11Future Developments in Marine Economy
Future Developments in Marine Economy 12
Nautilus Minerals from Canada is the first
company planning the mining of massive sulfides
from the seabed14 Germany owns research
licenses for two areas in the Pacific
The future of energy production also lies in the
oceans Globally about one third of natural gas
and oil is mined in the ocean and the tendency
is increasing15 The dependence of the global
economy on fossil fuels has risen to a precarious
level Almost all industrialized countries have to
import oil to cover their needs While the global
use of oil keeps growing quickly experts fear
that the maximum might be reached soon The
mining of new power sources which thus far are
not economically viable and the development of
new mining technologies are becoming more
significant In order to mine oil and gas in the
deep sea swimming platforms for example will
be needed Between 2010 and 2030 their
number will more than double to a total of 600
world wide16 In the future plants that can
operate directly on the seabed at depths of
several thousand meters will likely play an
increased role as well Suitable technologies
could revolutionize the offshore mining of natural
gas and oil and be far more cost effective than
todays platform-based plants
One of the largest fossil energy sources is
methane hydrate Countries investing most on
researching this energy source are Japan and the
USA In 2013 Japanese scientists were able to
mine gas stored one kilometer below sea level
and buried more than 300 meters deep in the
seabed Commercial mining is supposed to
commence by 2018 Offshore methane hydrate
resources could provide Japan with energy for
more than 100 years17 There are still
technological hurdles to overcome In addition
mining harbors geological and ecological risks
In addition to providing a large supply of energy
sources the oceans are also an energy source
itself Energy from wave tide and current power
plants will become a more significant part of the
regenerative energy mix The future market
marine energy is interesting for established plant
manufacturers as well as for innovative start-ups
13
Between 2013 and 2020 the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide
18
Future Developments in Marine Economy
14
The Finnish company Minesto for example
developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite
tethered to the seabed which moves with the
ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine
and a generator19
Offshore wind power will grow to become one of
the largest segments in the market for renewable
energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an
increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030
Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos
wind power will more than double to a total of 14
billion Euro By 2020 global investments in
offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20
Maritime tourism will become more significant as
well Today about 24 million people work in the
field of coastal and ocean tourism of which
150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past
few years this market has experienced an
enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the
number of passengers rose from 12 million to
213 million world wide a total growth of 77
percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers
will increase by an additional three million to a
total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect
passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have
to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding
industry will profit The trend toward experience
travel will increase the demand for specialized
tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)
Within the premium travel segment mobile
islands underwater hotels and submarine travel
could be an interesting growth market The
company Deep Ocean Technology for example
develops technologies for underwater hotels
The hotel room segments can be lowered up to
30 meters below sea level Plans to implement
such a prestigious project are already in
existence25
Future Developments in Marine Economy
15
02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
16
The competition for the economic usage of
maritime space and coastal regions will intensify
For example offshore wind park operators
compete with fisheries for space neighboring
states in the Arctic fiercely compete for
resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone
and cruise ship companies fight for the best
berths and mooring times in the most attractive
port cities To the extent that the oceans become
more and more attractive because new
technologies make the oceans a more efficient
and comprehensive fountain of food resources
and energy countries and corporations will
increase their investments and activities to
develop and access this potential Considering
the continuous population growth and the
increasing shortages of resources in a worst
case scenario unresolved or overlapping
territorial claims could turn violent and provoke
political conflict For example China and other
neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the
Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea
where experts assume large sources of raw
materials
Marine economy particularly ocean trade is
strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world
economy The world wide financial crisis had led
to a significantly reduced demand for shipping
space as well as cancellations and decreased
orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the
container ship building industry particularly in
Asia the German ship building industry had to
restructure and refocus building offshore-
oriented specialty ships instead of container
ships26 The question is how long will it take for
suppliers from emerging countries particularly
from China to enter the market for tailor-made
ships and offer them at lower costs There are
dramatic changes in the balance of the world
economy Developing and emerging countries will
provide an ever larger portion of the workforce
capital technology and trade volume By 2050
experts predict growth beyond average for the
BRIC states Their share of the global social
product will grow significantly
Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges
17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets
27
As soon as ten years from now China might
replace the United States as the largest national
economy in the world Today China is already
the largest container market In addition Chinese
banks could push into the market of ship
financing while German banks reduced their
involvement in this sector following the financial
crises In the future German ship owners
interested in investing might be forced to seek
financing from Chinese banks This could have a
negative impact on the German supplier industry
The competition between individual ports will
also intensify in the future Because container
ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer
central ports will handle an ever growing portion
of the sea trade For example within the next
few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its
container business to the JadeWeser port in
Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that
is independent of the tides and therefore
attractive to giant freighters28 International
relations change too While Hamburg used to
be among the largest container ports in the
world today it ranks only in 16th place By now
six of the top ten ports in the world are in
China29
Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges
to maritime traffic Although we seem to have
skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the
mining maximum by the expansion and
increased economic viability of unconventional oil
mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil
boom likely only defers the problem to a later
time
There are no clear predictions since a decrease
of conventional oil mining will result in higher
investments in research and development of
unconventional oil resources The danger
remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will
increase continuously or at the very least be
volatile In addition modernizing refineries will
result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-
product although the demand will keep rising
For several years now ship owners have tried to
reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with
slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies
18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
19
Sustainability is becoming ever more significant
in all trades The discussion of climate protection
involves marine traffic as well Due to new
environmental regulations the shipping industry
will face major challenges in the coming years
Increased restrictions that limit the emission of
harmful substances will require the use of
expensive fuels or investment in new filtering
and propulsion technologies Among other things
this will lead to additional cost increases for
container freight30 In 2008 the International
Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits
for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease
of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the
current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In
emission control areas an even stricter limit of
10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to
01 percent by 201531
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
20
Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)
32
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
21
03Opportunities and
Future Markets
22
Economic globalization will continue in the
coming years Adjusted for price the value of the
world wide trade of goods will grow from ten
billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars
in 203033 This development will benefit the port
industry too This industry includes all activities
involved in the value creation process of loading
and unloading goods as well as the transfer of
ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and
2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year
to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will
grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By
2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50
percent within the European Union35
Improving site conditions will become ever more
important for the individual ports for example
increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces
or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks
and train The German government focuses
current investments on the expansion of seaward
access roads as well as effective inland
connections36 Globally the need for investments
in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40
billion Euro a year by 203037
Ports will also
benefit from the growth of marine power
production For example ports will play an
increasingly central role in the value chain of
offshore wind energy There are future
opportunities in the fields of montage transfer
and service38 However ports will have to invest
heavily to be able to expand their capacities
accordingly
The significance of automation and safety
technologies will increase due to the growing
transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on
data that create a network of all actors involved
in the port economy promise additional
efficiency To guarantee international
competitiveness the cooperation between
individual ports might become increasingly
relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of
the cooperation between ports in Northern
Germany to improve the port location Germany39
Opportunities and Future Markets
23Opportunities and Future Markets
By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year
40
24
The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the
marine economy It connects ports
transportation methods and companies and
guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and
people The development of the oceans as a
source of food natural resources and energy
increases the need for an expansion of offshore
infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms
at ever greater distances to the shore require
new foundations and basic structures Innovative
technological solutions can significantly
contribute to a more cost efficient operation of
such plants The demand for specialists to
transport and mount materials and components
on site will grow The market for offshore supply
ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in
2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is
an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage
of goods natural resources and energy on
specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring
great logistic advantages for loading and
unloading procedures42 The expansion of an
underwater infrastructure for power cables will
be important to the energy transport particularly
to the transport of renewable energies Within
the next ten years the number of underwater
high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of
30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater
power cable will connect Norway and Germany
helping to level green power fluctuations
Opportunities and challenges in the area of
marine economy boost numerous technological
developments Maritime technologies are a
separate future market within the area of marine
economy They are particularly important to the
fields of ship technology energy mining the
mining of natural resources and the expansion
of maritime infrastructure Additional applications
are in the areas of measurement environment
and security technology Intelligent and
autonomous systems that can operate in great
depths are highly significant44 The Canadian
start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean
Institute for Marine Science and Technology and
the British company Seabed Resources want to
use highly modern robots to mine natural
resources in the deep sea
Opportunities and Future Markets
robust
25Opportunities and Future Markets
Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45
intelligent
sustainable
autonomous
26
In the middle and long term the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks
after several boats at the same time To make
unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well because todayrsquos engine technology
requires far too much maintenance46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining maritime energy production and more47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods but
also alternative propulsion methods Liquid
natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant
in the future The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship The ship is supposed to
start operating in 201548 By 2030 international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel
methanol shore power and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport Hybrid solutions however might
prevail in the long term at least New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
6
Future Markets in Marine Economy
Sustainable Marine Economy Growing Port Industry
Growing Usage of Maritime Resources
Growing Maritime Power Production
Development of Maritime Infrastructures
Maritime Technologies
Innovations in Shipbuilding Maritime Work and Living SpacesMarine Economy Growing Maritime Tourism
7
01Future Developments in Marine Economy
8
Which Trends Influence the Future of Marine Economy
Shortage of Resources Climate ChangesRising Demand for Food
Globalization Growth of Global Population New Economic Powers Urbanization
Shortage of Oil
Energy Innovations Demand for ExperiencesEcological Sustainability AutomationRobotization
9
Global trade will keep growing driven by forces
such as the continuing globalization and the
development of a broad and spend-happy middle
class in the emerging economic regions While
today about 60 percent of the global middle class
live in the developing and emerging countries by
the year 2030 it will be about 80 percent6 In the
same time period world trade will grow an
average of eight percent per year7 Marine trade
will more than double from todaylsquos nine billion
tons to 19 to 24 billion tons in the year 20308
Logistics companies port management ship
builders and their suppliers will benefit from
growing container traffic Following the over
capacity due to the economic crisis the demand
for new ships will grow by the year 20209 In
addition the average transport capacity and size
of container chips will keep growing To save
costs the shipsrsquo fuel efficiency and technical
equipment must improve continuously
Networking and automation are fields that will
become particularly significant
Future Developments in Marine Economy
10Future Developments in Marine Economy
The ocean holds huge resources from protein-
rich fish to crude oil gas and methane hydrate
as well as economically interesting minerals and
metals Biological resources are also useful in
fields such as cosmetics and medication
By the year 2030 food production will have to
increase by 50 percent to cover the growing need
of the world population Protecting the oceans as
one of the most important food sources will be a
particularly significant task because overfishing
of some fish stock is already an issue today
Products from wild catches are being replaced by
aquaculture ie controlled breeding Between
2012 and 2019 the global market for aquaculture
will grow by almost 50 percent to a total of 195
billion10 This development has a particularly
negative impact on developing countries where
peoplersquos livelihood is directly or indirectly
dependent on fishing or where nutritional
resources diminish by continued overfishing
Should fish stock be further decimated in the
future fishing regulations might tighten and
quotas intensify considerably
In the medium and long term increasing
commodity prices will make deep sea mining
attractive In the future ore in form of
manganese modules cobalt crusts and massive
sulfides will be mined as far as 4000 meters
below the surface11 Particularly manganese
modules which are rich in non-ferrous metals
provide high hopes because these metals are
used for the production of of modern high-tech
products such as smart phones solar cells wind
power plants or electric vehicles Sustainable
mining which is to say mining that will not put
too much strain on the ecosystem of the ocean
floor will provide a great challenge If we wish to
safeguard our resources in the long term the
mining of marine mineral resources is of strategic
importance Access to and research of these
resources are regulated by the International
Seabed Authority of the United Nations The rules
for commercial mining have not yet been
defined12
Between 2010 and 2040 the amount of oil mined in the deep sea will increase by more than 150 percent
13
11Future Developments in Marine Economy
Future Developments in Marine Economy 12
Nautilus Minerals from Canada is the first
company planning the mining of massive sulfides
from the seabed14 Germany owns research
licenses for two areas in the Pacific
The future of energy production also lies in the
oceans Globally about one third of natural gas
and oil is mined in the ocean and the tendency
is increasing15 The dependence of the global
economy on fossil fuels has risen to a precarious
level Almost all industrialized countries have to
import oil to cover their needs While the global
use of oil keeps growing quickly experts fear
that the maximum might be reached soon The
mining of new power sources which thus far are
not economically viable and the development of
new mining technologies are becoming more
significant In order to mine oil and gas in the
deep sea swimming platforms for example will
be needed Between 2010 and 2030 their
number will more than double to a total of 600
world wide16 In the future plants that can
operate directly on the seabed at depths of
several thousand meters will likely play an
increased role as well Suitable technologies
could revolutionize the offshore mining of natural
gas and oil and be far more cost effective than
todays platform-based plants
One of the largest fossil energy sources is
methane hydrate Countries investing most on
researching this energy source are Japan and the
USA In 2013 Japanese scientists were able to
mine gas stored one kilometer below sea level
and buried more than 300 meters deep in the
seabed Commercial mining is supposed to
commence by 2018 Offshore methane hydrate
resources could provide Japan with energy for
more than 100 years17 There are still
technological hurdles to overcome In addition
mining harbors geological and ecological risks
In addition to providing a large supply of energy
sources the oceans are also an energy source
itself Energy from wave tide and current power
plants will become a more significant part of the
regenerative energy mix The future market
marine energy is interesting for established plant
manufacturers as well as for innovative start-ups
13
Between 2013 and 2020 the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide
18
Future Developments in Marine Economy
14
The Finnish company Minesto for example
developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite
tethered to the seabed which moves with the
ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine
and a generator19
Offshore wind power will grow to become one of
the largest segments in the market for renewable
energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an
increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030
Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos
wind power will more than double to a total of 14
billion Euro By 2020 global investments in
offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20
Maritime tourism will become more significant as
well Today about 24 million people work in the
field of coastal and ocean tourism of which
150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past
few years this market has experienced an
enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the
number of passengers rose from 12 million to
213 million world wide a total growth of 77
percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers
will increase by an additional three million to a
total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect
passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have
to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding
industry will profit The trend toward experience
travel will increase the demand for specialized
tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)
Within the premium travel segment mobile
islands underwater hotels and submarine travel
could be an interesting growth market The
company Deep Ocean Technology for example
develops technologies for underwater hotels
The hotel room segments can be lowered up to
30 meters below sea level Plans to implement
such a prestigious project are already in
existence25
Future Developments in Marine Economy
15
02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
16
The competition for the economic usage of
maritime space and coastal regions will intensify
For example offshore wind park operators
compete with fisheries for space neighboring
states in the Arctic fiercely compete for
resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone
and cruise ship companies fight for the best
berths and mooring times in the most attractive
port cities To the extent that the oceans become
more and more attractive because new
technologies make the oceans a more efficient
and comprehensive fountain of food resources
and energy countries and corporations will
increase their investments and activities to
develop and access this potential Considering
the continuous population growth and the
increasing shortages of resources in a worst
case scenario unresolved or overlapping
territorial claims could turn violent and provoke
political conflict For example China and other
neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the
Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea
where experts assume large sources of raw
materials
Marine economy particularly ocean trade is
strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world
economy The world wide financial crisis had led
to a significantly reduced demand for shipping
space as well as cancellations and decreased
orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the
container ship building industry particularly in
Asia the German ship building industry had to
restructure and refocus building offshore-
oriented specialty ships instead of container
ships26 The question is how long will it take for
suppliers from emerging countries particularly
from China to enter the market for tailor-made
ships and offer them at lower costs There are
dramatic changes in the balance of the world
economy Developing and emerging countries will
provide an ever larger portion of the workforce
capital technology and trade volume By 2050
experts predict growth beyond average for the
BRIC states Their share of the global social
product will grow significantly
Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges
17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets
27
As soon as ten years from now China might
replace the United States as the largest national
economy in the world Today China is already
the largest container market In addition Chinese
banks could push into the market of ship
financing while German banks reduced their
involvement in this sector following the financial
crises In the future German ship owners
interested in investing might be forced to seek
financing from Chinese banks This could have a
negative impact on the German supplier industry
The competition between individual ports will
also intensify in the future Because container
ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer
central ports will handle an ever growing portion
of the sea trade For example within the next
few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its
container business to the JadeWeser port in
Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that
is independent of the tides and therefore
attractive to giant freighters28 International
relations change too While Hamburg used to
be among the largest container ports in the
world today it ranks only in 16th place By now
six of the top ten ports in the world are in
China29
Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges
to maritime traffic Although we seem to have
skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the
mining maximum by the expansion and
increased economic viability of unconventional oil
mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil
boom likely only defers the problem to a later
time
There are no clear predictions since a decrease
of conventional oil mining will result in higher
investments in research and development of
unconventional oil resources The danger
remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will
increase continuously or at the very least be
volatile In addition modernizing refineries will
result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-
product although the demand will keep rising
For several years now ship owners have tried to
reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with
slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies
18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
19
Sustainability is becoming ever more significant
in all trades The discussion of climate protection
involves marine traffic as well Due to new
environmental regulations the shipping industry
will face major challenges in the coming years
Increased restrictions that limit the emission of
harmful substances will require the use of
expensive fuels or investment in new filtering
and propulsion technologies Among other things
this will lead to additional cost increases for
container freight30 In 2008 the International
Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits
for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease
of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the
current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In
emission control areas an even stricter limit of
10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to
01 percent by 201531
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
20
Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)
32
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
21
03Opportunities and
Future Markets
22
Economic globalization will continue in the
coming years Adjusted for price the value of the
world wide trade of goods will grow from ten
billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars
in 203033 This development will benefit the port
industry too This industry includes all activities
involved in the value creation process of loading
and unloading goods as well as the transfer of
ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and
2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year
to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will
grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By
2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50
percent within the European Union35
Improving site conditions will become ever more
important for the individual ports for example
increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces
or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks
and train The German government focuses
current investments on the expansion of seaward
access roads as well as effective inland
connections36 Globally the need for investments
in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40
billion Euro a year by 203037
Ports will also
benefit from the growth of marine power
production For example ports will play an
increasingly central role in the value chain of
offshore wind energy There are future
opportunities in the fields of montage transfer
and service38 However ports will have to invest
heavily to be able to expand their capacities
accordingly
The significance of automation and safety
technologies will increase due to the growing
transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on
data that create a network of all actors involved
in the port economy promise additional
efficiency To guarantee international
competitiveness the cooperation between
individual ports might become increasingly
relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of
the cooperation between ports in Northern
Germany to improve the port location Germany39
Opportunities and Future Markets
23Opportunities and Future Markets
By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year
40
24
The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the
marine economy It connects ports
transportation methods and companies and
guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and
people The development of the oceans as a
source of food natural resources and energy
increases the need for an expansion of offshore
infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms
at ever greater distances to the shore require
new foundations and basic structures Innovative
technological solutions can significantly
contribute to a more cost efficient operation of
such plants The demand for specialists to
transport and mount materials and components
on site will grow The market for offshore supply
ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in
2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is
an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage
of goods natural resources and energy on
specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring
great logistic advantages for loading and
unloading procedures42 The expansion of an
underwater infrastructure for power cables will
be important to the energy transport particularly
to the transport of renewable energies Within
the next ten years the number of underwater
high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of
30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater
power cable will connect Norway and Germany
helping to level green power fluctuations
Opportunities and challenges in the area of
marine economy boost numerous technological
developments Maritime technologies are a
separate future market within the area of marine
economy They are particularly important to the
fields of ship technology energy mining the
mining of natural resources and the expansion
of maritime infrastructure Additional applications
are in the areas of measurement environment
and security technology Intelligent and
autonomous systems that can operate in great
depths are highly significant44 The Canadian
start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean
Institute for Marine Science and Technology and
the British company Seabed Resources want to
use highly modern robots to mine natural
resources in the deep sea
Opportunities and Future Markets
robust
25Opportunities and Future Markets
Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45
intelligent
sustainable
autonomous
26
In the middle and long term the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks
after several boats at the same time To make
unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well because todayrsquos engine technology
requires far too much maintenance46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining maritime energy production and more47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods but
also alternative propulsion methods Liquid
natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant
in the future The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship The ship is supposed to
start operating in 201548 By 2030 international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel
methanol shore power and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport Hybrid solutions however might
prevail in the long term at least New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
7
01Future Developments in Marine Economy
8
Which Trends Influence the Future of Marine Economy
Shortage of Resources Climate ChangesRising Demand for Food
Globalization Growth of Global Population New Economic Powers Urbanization
Shortage of Oil
Energy Innovations Demand for ExperiencesEcological Sustainability AutomationRobotization
9
Global trade will keep growing driven by forces
such as the continuing globalization and the
development of a broad and spend-happy middle
class in the emerging economic regions While
today about 60 percent of the global middle class
live in the developing and emerging countries by
the year 2030 it will be about 80 percent6 In the
same time period world trade will grow an
average of eight percent per year7 Marine trade
will more than double from todaylsquos nine billion
tons to 19 to 24 billion tons in the year 20308
Logistics companies port management ship
builders and their suppliers will benefit from
growing container traffic Following the over
capacity due to the economic crisis the demand
for new ships will grow by the year 20209 In
addition the average transport capacity and size
of container chips will keep growing To save
costs the shipsrsquo fuel efficiency and technical
equipment must improve continuously
Networking and automation are fields that will
become particularly significant
Future Developments in Marine Economy
10Future Developments in Marine Economy
The ocean holds huge resources from protein-
rich fish to crude oil gas and methane hydrate
as well as economically interesting minerals and
metals Biological resources are also useful in
fields such as cosmetics and medication
By the year 2030 food production will have to
increase by 50 percent to cover the growing need
of the world population Protecting the oceans as
one of the most important food sources will be a
particularly significant task because overfishing
of some fish stock is already an issue today
Products from wild catches are being replaced by
aquaculture ie controlled breeding Between
2012 and 2019 the global market for aquaculture
will grow by almost 50 percent to a total of 195
billion10 This development has a particularly
negative impact on developing countries where
peoplersquos livelihood is directly or indirectly
dependent on fishing or where nutritional
resources diminish by continued overfishing
Should fish stock be further decimated in the
future fishing regulations might tighten and
quotas intensify considerably
In the medium and long term increasing
commodity prices will make deep sea mining
attractive In the future ore in form of
manganese modules cobalt crusts and massive
sulfides will be mined as far as 4000 meters
below the surface11 Particularly manganese
modules which are rich in non-ferrous metals
provide high hopes because these metals are
used for the production of of modern high-tech
products such as smart phones solar cells wind
power plants or electric vehicles Sustainable
mining which is to say mining that will not put
too much strain on the ecosystem of the ocean
floor will provide a great challenge If we wish to
safeguard our resources in the long term the
mining of marine mineral resources is of strategic
importance Access to and research of these
resources are regulated by the International
Seabed Authority of the United Nations The rules
for commercial mining have not yet been
defined12
Between 2010 and 2040 the amount of oil mined in the deep sea will increase by more than 150 percent
13
11Future Developments in Marine Economy
Future Developments in Marine Economy 12
Nautilus Minerals from Canada is the first
company planning the mining of massive sulfides
from the seabed14 Germany owns research
licenses for two areas in the Pacific
The future of energy production also lies in the
oceans Globally about one third of natural gas
and oil is mined in the ocean and the tendency
is increasing15 The dependence of the global
economy on fossil fuels has risen to a precarious
level Almost all industrialized countries have to
import oil to cover their needs While the global
use of oil keeps growing quickly experts fear
that the maximum might be reached soon The
mining of new power sources which thus far are
not economically viable and the development of
new mining technologies are becoming more
significant In order to mine oil and gas in the
deep sea swimming platforms for example will
be needed Between 2010 and 2030 their
number will more than double to a total of 600
world wide16 In the future plants that can
operate directly on the seabed at depths of
several thousand meters will likely play an
increased role as well Suitable technologies
could revolutionize the offshore mining of natural
gas and oil and be far more cost effective than
todays platform-based plants
One of the largest fossil energy sources is
methane hydrate Countries investing most on
researching this energy source are Japan and the
USA In 2013 Japanese scientists were able to
mine gas stored one kilometer below sea level
and buried more than 300 meters deep in the
seabed Commercial mining is supposed to
commence by 2018 Offshore methane hydrate
resources could provide Japan with energy for
more than 100 years17 There are still
technological hurdles to overcome In addition
mining harbors geological and ecological risks
In addition to providing a large supply of energy
sources the oceans are also an energy source
itself Energy from wave tide and current power
plants will become a more significant part of the
regenerative energy mix The future market
marine energy is interesting for established plant
manufacturers as well as for innovative start-ups
13
Between 2013 and 2020 the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide
18
Future Developments in Marine Economy
14
The Finnish company Minesto for example
developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite
tethered to the seabed which moves with the
ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine
and a generator19
Offshore wind power will grow to become one of
the largest segments in the market for renewable
energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an
increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030
Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos
wind power will more than double to a total of 14
billion Euro By 2020 global investments in
offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20
Maritime tourism will become more significant as
well Today about 24 million people work in the
field of coastal and ocean tourism of which
150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past
few years this market has experienced an
enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the
number of passengers rose from 12 million to
213 million world wide a total growth of 77
percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers
will increase by an additional three million to a
total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect
passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have
to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding
industry will profit The trend toward experience
travel will increase the demand for specialized
tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)
Within the premium travel segment mobile
islands underwater hotels and submarine travel
could be an interesting growth market The
company Deep Ocean Technology for example
develops technologies for underwater hotels
The hotel room segments can be lowered up to
30 meters below sea level Plans to implement
such a prestigious project are already in
existence25
Future Developments in Marine Economy
15
02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
16
The competition for the economic usage of
maritime space and coastal regions will intensify
For example offshore wind park operators
compete with fisheries for space neighboring
states in the Arctic fiercely compete for
resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone
and cruise ship companies fight for the best
berths and mooring times in the most attractive
port cities To the extent that the oceans become
more and more attractive because new
technologies make the oceans a more efficient
and comprehensive fountain of food resources
and energy countries and corporations will
increase their investments and activities to
develop and access this potential Considering
the continuous population growth and the
increasing shortages of resources in a worst
case scenario unresolved or overlapping
territorial claims could turn violent and provoke
political conflict For example China and other
neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the
Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea
where experts assume large sources of raw
materials
Marine economy particularly ocean trade is
strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world
economy The world wide financial crisis had led
to a significantly reduced demand for shipping
space as well as cancellations and decreased
orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the
container ship building industry particularly in
Asia the German ship building industry had to
restructure and refocus building offshore-
oriented specialty ships instead of container
ships26 The question is how long will it take for
suppliers from emerging countries particularly
from China to enter the market for tailor-made
ships and offer them at lower costs There are
dramatic changes in the balance of the world
economy Developing and emerging countries will
provide an ever larger portion of the workforce
capital technology and trade volume By 2050
experts predict growth beyond average for the
BRIC states Their share of the global social
product will grow significantly
Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges
17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets
27
As soon as ten years from now China might
replace the United States as the largest national
economy in the world Today China is already
the largest container market In addition Chinese
banks could push into the market of ship
financing while German banks reduced their
involvement in this sector following the financial
crises In the future German ship owners
interested in investing might be forced to seek
financing from Chinese banks This could have a
negative impact on the German supplier industry
The competition between individual ports will
also intensify in the future Because container
ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer
central ports will handle an ever growing portion
of the sea trade For example within the next
few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its
container business to the JadeWeser port in
Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that
is independent of the tides and therefore
attractive to giant freighters28 International
relations change too While Hamburg used to
be among the largest container ports in the
world today it ranks only in 16th place By now
six of the top ten ports in the world are in
China29
Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges
to maritime traffic Although we seem to have
skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the
mining maximum by the expansion and
increased economic viability of unconventional oil
mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil
boom likely only defers the problem to a later
time
There are no clear predictions since a decrease
of conventional oil mining will result in higher
investments in research and development of
unconventional oil resources The danger
remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will
increase continuously or at the very least be
volatile In addition modernizing refineries will
result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-
product although the demand will keep rising
For several years now ship owners have tried to
reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with
slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies
18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
19
Sustainability is becoming ever more significant
in all trades The discussion of climate protection
involves marine traffic as well Due to new
environmental regulations the shipping industry
will face major challenges in the coming years
Increased restrictions that limit the emission of
harmful substances will require the use of
expensive fuels or investment in new filtering
and propulsion technologies Among other things
this will lead to additional cost increases for
container freight30 In 2008 the International
Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits
for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease
of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the
current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In
emission control areas an even stricter limit of
10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to
01 percent by 201531
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
20
Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)
32
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
21
03Opportunities and
Future Markets
22
Economic globalization will continue in the
coming years Adjusted for price the value of the
world wide trade of goods will grow from ten
billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars
in 203033 This development will benefit the port
industry too This industry includes all activities
involved in the value creation process of loading
and unloading goods as well as the transfer of
ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and
2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year
to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will
grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By
2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50
percent within the European Union35
Improving site conditions will become ever more
important for the individual ports for example
increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces
or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks
and train The German government focuses
current investments on the expansion of seaward
access roads as well as effective inland
connections36 Globally the need for investments
in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40
billion Euro a year by 203037
Ports will also
benefit from the growth of marine power
production For example ports will play an
increasingly central role in the value chain of
offshore wind energy There are future
opportunities in the fields of montage transfer
and service38 However ports will have to invest
heavily to be able to expand their capacities
accordingly
The significance of automation and safety
technologies will increase due to the growing
transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on
data that create a network of all actors involved
in the port economy promise additional
efficiency To guarantee international
competitiveness the cooperation between
individual ports might become increasingly
relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of
the cooperation between ports in Northern
Germany to improve the port location Germany39
Opportunities and Future Markets
23Opportunities and Future Markets
By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year
40
24
The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the
marine economy It connects ports
transportation methods and companies and
guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and
people The development of the oceans as a
source of food natural resources and energy
increases the need for an expansion of offshore
infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms
at ever greater distances to the shore require
new foundations and basic structures Innovative
technological solutions can significantly
contribute to a more cost efficient operation of
such plants The demand for specialists to
transport and mount materials and components
on site will grow The market for offshore supply
ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in
2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is
an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage
of goods natural resources and energy on
specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring
great logistic advantages for loading and
unloading procedures42 The expansion of an
underwater infrastructure for power cables will
be important to the energy transport particularly
to the transport of renewable energies Within
the next ten years the number of underwater
high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of
30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater
power cable will connect Norway and Germany
helping to level green power fluctuations
Opportunities and challenges in the area of
marine economy boost numerous technological
developments Maritime technologies are a
separate future market within the area of marine
economy They are particularly important to the
fields of ship technology energy mining the
mining of natural resources and the expansion
of maritime infrastructure Additional applications
are in the areas of measurement environment
and security technology Intelligent and
autonomous systems that can operate in great
depths are highly significant44 The Canadian
start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean
Institute for Marine Science and Technology and
the British company Seabed Resources want to
use highly modern robots to mine natural
resources in the deep sea
Opportunities and Future Markets
robust
25Opportunities and Future Markets
Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45
intelligent
sustainable
autonomous
26
In the middle and long term the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks
after several boats at the same time To make
unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well because todayrsquos engine technology
requires far too much maintenance46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining maritime energy production and more47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods but
also alternative propulsion methods Liquid
natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant
in the future The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship The ship is supposed to
start operating in 201548 By 2030 international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel
methanol shore power and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport Hybrid solutions however might
prevail in the long term at least New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
8
Which Trends Influence the Future of Marine Economy
Shortage of Resources Climate ChangesRising Demand for Food
Globalization Growth of Global Population New Economic Powers Urbanization
Shortage of Oil
Energy Innovations Demand for ExperiencesEcological Sustainability AutomationRobotization
9
Global trade will keep growing driven by forces
such as the continuing globalization and the
development of a broad and spend-happy middle
class in the emerging economic regions While
today about 60 percent of the global middle class
live in the developing and emerging countries by
the year 2030 it will be about 80 percent6 In the
same time period world trade will grow an
average of eight percent per year7 Marine trade
will more than double from todaylsquos nine billion
tons to 19 to 24 billion tons in the year 20308
Logistics companies port management ship
builders and their suppliers will benefit from
growing container traffic Following the over
capacity due to the economic crisis the demand
for new ships will grow by the year 20209 In
addition the average transport capacity and size
of container chips will keep growing To save
costs the shipsrsquo fuel efficiency and technical
equipment must improve continuously
Networking and automation are fields that will
become particularly significant
Future Developments in Marine Economy
10Future Developments in Marine Economy
The ocean holds huge resources from protein-
rich fish to crude oil gas and methane hydrate
as well as economically interesting minerals and
metals Biological resources are also useful in
fields such as cosmetics and medication
By the year 2030 food production will have to
increase by 50 percent to cover the growing need
of the world population Protecting the oceans as
one of the most important food sources will be a
particularly significant task because overfishing
of some fish stock is already an issue today
Products from wild catches are being replaced by
aquaculture ie controlled breeding Between
2012 and 2019 the global market for aquaculture
will grow by almost 50 percent to a total of 195
billion10 This development has a particularly
negative impact on developing countries where
peoplersquos livelihood is directly or indirectly
dependent on fishing or where nutritional
resources diminish by continued overfishing
Should fish stock be further decimated in the
future fishing regulations might tighten and
quotas intensify considerably
In the medium and long term increasing
commodity prices will make deep sea mining
attractive In the future ore in form of
manganese modules cobalt crusts and massive
sulfides will be mined as far as 4000 meters
below the surface11 Particularly manganese
modules which are rich in non-ferrous metals
provide high hopes because these metals are
used for the production of of modern high-tech
products such as smart phones solar cells wind
power plants or electric vehicles Sustainable
mining which is to say mining that will not put
too much strain on the ecosystem of the ocean
floor will provide a great challenge If we wish to
safeguard our resources in the long term the
mining of marine mineral resources is of strategic
importance Access to and research of these
resources are regulated by the International
Seabed Authority of the United Nations The rules
for commercial mining have not yet been
defined12
Between 2010 and 2040 the amount of oil mined in the deep sea will increase by more than 150 percent
13
11Future Developments in Marine Economy
Future Developments in Marine Economy 12
Nautilus Minerals from Canada is the first
company planning the mining of massive sulfides
from the seabed14 Germany owns research
licenses for two areas in the Pacific
The future of energy production also lies in the
oceans Globally about one third of natural gas
and oil is mined in the ocean and the tendency
is increasing15 The dependence of the global
economy on fossil fuels has risen to a precarious
level Almost all industrialized countries have to
import oil to cover their needs While the global
use of oil keeps growing quickly experts fear
that the maximum might be reached soon The
mining of new power sources which thus far are
not economically viable and the development of
new mining technologies are becoming more
significant In order to mine oil and gas in the
deep sea swimming platforms for example will
be needed Between 2010 and 2030 their
number will more than double to a total of 600
world wide16 In the future plants that can
operate directly on the seabed at depths of
several thousand meters will likely play an
increased role as well Suitable technologies
could revolutionize the offshore mining of natural
gas and oil and be far more cost effective than
todays platform-based plants
One of the largest fossil energy sources is
methane hydrate Countries investing most on
researching this energy source are Japan and the
USA In 2013 Japanese scientists were able to
mine gas stored one kilometer below sea level
and buried more than 300 meters deep in the
seabed Commercial mining is supposed to
commence by 2018 Offshore methane hydrate
resources could provide Japan with energy for
more than 100 years17 There are still
technological hurdles to overcome In addition
mining harbors geological and ecological risks
In addition to providing a large supply of energy
sources the oceans are also an energy source
itself Energy from wave tide and current power
plants will become a more significant part of the
regenerative energy mix The future market
marine energy is interesting for established plant
manufacturers as well as for innovative start-ups
13
Between 2013 and 2020 the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide
18
Future Developments in Marine Economy
14
The Finnish company Minesto for example
developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite
tethered to the seabed which moves with the
ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine
and a generator19
Offshore wind power will grow to become one of
the largest segments in the market for renewable
energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an
increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030
Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos
wind power will more than double to a total of 14
billion Euro By 2020 global investments in
offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20
Maritime tourism will become more significant as
well Today about 24 million people work in the
field of coastal and ocean tourism of which
150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past
few years this market has experienced an
enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the
number of passengers rose from 12 million to
213 million world wide a total growth of 77
percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers
will increase by an additional three million to a
total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect
passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have
to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding
industry will profit The trend toward experience
travel will increase the demand for specialized
tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)
Within the premium travel segment mobile
islands underwater hotels and submarine travel
could be an interesting growth market The
company Deep Ocean Technology for example
develops technologies for underwater hotels
The hotel room segments can be lowered up to
30 meters below sea level Plans to implement
such a prestigious project are already in
existence25
Future Developments in Marine Economy
15
02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
16
The competition for the economic usage of
maritime space and coastal regions will intensify
For example offshore wind park operators
compete with fisheries for space neighboring
states in the Arctic fiercely compete for
resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone
and cruise ship companies fight for the best
berths and mooring times in the most attractive
port cities To the extent that the oceans become
more and more attractive because new
technologies make the oceans a more efficient
and comprehensive fountain of food resources
and energy countries and corporations will
increase their investments and activities to
develop and access this potential Considering
the continuous population growth and the
increasing shortages of resources in a worst
case scenario unresolved or overlapping
territorial claims could turn violent and provoke
political conflict For example China and other
neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the
Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea
where experts assume large sources of raw
materials
Marine economy particularly ocean trade is
strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world
economy The world wide financial crisis had led
to a significantly reduced demand for shipping
space as well as cancellations and decreased
orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the
container ship building industry particularly in
Asia the German ship building industry had to
restructure and refocus building offshore-
oriented specialty ships instead of container
ships26 The question is how long will it take for
suppliers from emerging countries particularly
from China to enter the market for tailor-made
ships and offer them at lower costs There are
dramatic changes in the balance of the world
economy Developing and emerging countries will
provide an ever larger portion of the workforce
capital technology and trade volume By 2050
experts predict growth beyond average for the
BRIC states Their share of the global social
product will grow significantly
Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges
17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets
27
As soon as ten years from now China might
replace the United States as the largest national
economy in the world Today China is already
the largest container market In addition Chinese
banks could push into the market of ship
financing while German banks reduced their
involvement in this sector following the financial
crises In the future German ship owners
interested in investing might be forced to seek
financing from Chinese banks This could have a
negative impact on the German supplier industry
The competition between individual ports will
also intensify in the future Because container
ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer
central ports will handle an ever growing portion
of the sea trade For example within the next
few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its
container business to the JadeWeser port in
Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that
is independent of the tides and therefore
attractive to giant freighters28 International
relations change too While Hamburg used to
be among the largest container ports in the
world today it ranks only in 16th place By now
six of the top ten ports in the world are in
China29
Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges
to maritime traffic Although we seem to have
skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the
mining maximum by the expansion and
increased economic viability of unconventional oil
mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil
boom likely only defers the problem to a later
time
There are no clear predictions since a decrease
of conventional oil mining will result in higher
investments in research and development of
unconventional oil resources The danger
remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will
increase continuously or at the very least be
volatile In addition modernizing refineries will
result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-
product although the demand will keep rising
For several years now ship owners have tried to
reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with
slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies
18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
19
Sustainability is becoming ever more significant
in all trades The discussion of climate protection
involves marine traffic as well Due to new
environmental regulations the shipping industry
will face major challenges in the coming years
Increased restrictions that limit the emission of
harmful substances will require the use of
expensive fuels or investment in new filtering
and propulsion technologies Among other things
this will lead to additional cost increases for
container freight30 In 2008 the International
Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits
for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease
of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the
current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In
emission control areas an even stricter limit of
10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to
01 percent by 201531
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
20
Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)
32
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
21
03Opportunities and
Future Markets
22
Economic globalization will continue in the
coming years Adjusted for price the value of the
world wide trade of goods will grow from ten
billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars
in 203033 This development will benefit the port
industry too This industry includes all activities
involved in the value creation process of loading
and unloading goods as well as the transfer of
ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and
2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year
to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will
grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By
2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50
percent within the European Union35
Improving site conditions will become ever more
important for the individual ports for example
increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces
or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks
and train The German government focuses
current investments on the expansion of seaward
access roads as well as effective inland
connections36 Globally the need for investments
in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40
billion Euro a year by 203037
Ports will also
benefit from the growth of marine power
production For example ports will play an
increasingly central role in the value chain of
offshore wind energy There are future
opportunities in the fields of montage transfer
and service38 However ports will have to invest
heavily to be able to expand their capacities
accordingly
The significance of automation and safety
technologies will increase due to the growing
transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on
data that create a network of all actors involved
in the port economy promise additional
efficiency To guarantee international
competitiveness the cooperation between
individual ports might become increasingly
relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of
the cooperation between ports in Northern
Germany to improve the port location Germany39
Opportunities and Future Markets
23Opportunities and Future Markets
By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year
40
24
The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the
marine economy It connects ports
transportation methods and companies and
guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and
people The development of the oceans as a
source of food natural resources and energy
increases the need for an expansion of offshore
infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms
at ever greater distances to the shore require
new foundations and basic structures Innovative
technological solutions can significantly
contribute to a more cost efficient operation of
such plants The demand for specialists to
transport and mount materials and components
on site will grow The market for offshore supply
ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in
2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is
an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage
of goods natural resources and energy on
specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring
great logistic advantages for loading and
unloading procedures42 The expansion of an
underwater infrastructure for power cables will
be important to the energy transport particularly
to the transport of renewable energies Within
the next ten years the number of underwater
high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of
30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater
power cable will connect Norway and Germany
helping to level green power fluctuations
Opportunities and challenges in the area of
marine economy boost numerous technological
developments Maritime technologies are a
separate future market within the area of marine
economy They are particularly important to the
fields of ship technology energy mining the
mining of natural resources and the expansion
of maritime infrastructure Additional applications
are in the areas of measurement environment
and security technology Intelligent and
autonomous systems that can operate in great
depths are highly significant44 The Canadian
start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean
Institute for Marine Science and Technology and
the British company Seabed Resources want to
use highly modern robots to mine natural
resources in the deep sea
Opportunities and Future Markets
robust
25Opportunities and Future Markets
Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45
intelligent
sustainable
autonomous
26
In the middle and long term the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks
after several boats at the same time To make
unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well because todayrsquos engine technology
requires far too much maintenance46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining maritime energy production and more47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods but
also alternative propulsion methods Liquid
natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant
in the future The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship The ship is supposed to
start operating in 201548 By 2030 international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel
methanol shore power and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport Hybrid solutions however might
prevail in the long term at least New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
9
Global trade will keep growing driven by forces
such as the continuing globalization and the
development of a broad and spend-happy middle
class in the emerging economic regions While
today about 60 percent of the global middle class
live in the developing and emerging countries by
the year 2030 it will be about 80 percent6 In the
same time period world trade will grow an
average of eight percent per year7 Marine trade
will more than double from todaylsquos nine billion
tons to 19 to 24 billion tons in the year 20308
Logistics companies port management ship
builders and their suppliers will benefit from
growing container traffic Following the over
capacity due to the economic crisis the demand
for new ships will grow by the year 20209 In
addition the average transport capacity and size
of container chips will keep growing To save
costs the shipsrsquo fuel efficiency and technical
equipment must improve continuously
Networking and automation are fields that will
become particularly significant
Future Developments in Marine Economy
10Future Developments in Marine Economy
The ocean holds huge resources from protein-
rich fish to crude oil gas and methane hydrate
as well as economically interesting minerals and
metals Biological resources are also useful in
fields such as cosmetics and medication
By the year 2030 food production will have to
increase by 50 percent to cover the growing need
of the world population Protecting the oceans as
one of the most important food sources will be a
particularly significant task because overfishing
of some fish stock is already an issue today
Products from wild catches are being replaced by
aquaculture ie controlled breeding Between
2012 and 2019 the global market for aquaculture
will grow by almost 50 percent to a total of 195
billion10 This development has a particularly
negative impact on developing countries where
peoplersquos livelihood is directly or indirectly
dependent on fishing or where nutritional
resources diminish by continued overfishing
Should fish stock be further decimated in the
future fishing regulations might tighten and
quotas intensify considerably
In the medium and long term increasing
commodity prices will make deep sea mining
attractive In the future ore in form of
manganese modules cobalt crusts and massive
sulfides will be mined as far as 4000 meters
below the surface11 Particularly manganese
modules which are rich in non-ferrous metals
provide high hopes because these metals are
used for the production of of modern high-tech
products such as smart phones solar cells wind
power plants or electric vehicles Sustainable
mining which is to say mining that will not put
too much strain on the ecosystem of the ocean
floor will provide a great challenge If we wish to
safeguard our resources in the long term the
mining of marine mineral resources is of strategic
importance Access to and research of these
resources are regulated by the International
Seabed Authority of the United Nations The rules
for commercial mining have not yet been
defined12
Between 2010 and 2040 the amount of oil mined in the deep sea will increase by more than 150 percent
13
11Future Developments in Marine Economy
Future Developments in Marine Economy 12
Nautilus Minerals from Canada is the first
company planning the mining of massive sulfides
from the seabed14 Germany owns research
licenses for two areas in the Pacific
The future of energy production also lies in the
oceans Globally about one third of natural gas
and oil is mined in the ocean and the tendency
is increasing15 The dependence of the global
economy on fossil fuels has risen to a precarious
level Almost all industrialized countries have to
import oil to cover their needs While the global
use of oil keeps growing quickly experts fear
that the maximum might be reached soon The
mining of new power sources which thus far are
not economically viable and the development of
new mining technologies are becoming more
significant In order to mine oil and gas in the
deep sea swimming platforms for example will
be needed Between 2010 and 2030 their
number will more than double to a total of 600
world wide16 In the future plants that can
operate directly on the seabed at depths of
several thousand meters will likely play an
increased role as well Suitable technologies
could revolutionize the offshore mining of natural
gas and oil and be far more cost effective than
todays platform-based plants
One of the largest fossil energy sources is
methane hydrate Countries investing most on
researching this energy source are Japan and the
USA In 2013 Japanese scientists were able to
mine gas stored one kilometer below sea level
and buried more than 300 meters deep in the
seabed Commercial mining is supposed to
commence by 2018 Offshore methane hydrate
resources could provide Japan with energy for
more than 100 years17 There are still
technological hurdles to overcome In addition
mining harbors geological and ecological risks
In addition to providing a large supply of energy
sources the oceans are also an energy source
itself Energy from wave tide and current power
plants will become a more significant part of the
regenerative energy mix The future market
marine energy is interesting for established plant
manufacturers as well as for innovative start-ups
13
Between 2013 and 2020 the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide
18
Future Developments in Marine Economy
14
The Finnish company Minesto for example
developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite
tethered to the seabed which moves with the
ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine
and a generator19
Offshore wind power will grow to become one of
the largest segments in the market for renewable
energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an
increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030
Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos
wind power will more than double to a total of 14
billion Euro By 2020 global investments in
offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20
Maritime tourism will become more significant as
well Today about 24 million people work in the
field of coastal and ocean tourism of which
150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past
few years this market has experienced an
enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the
number of passengers rose from 12 million to
213 million world wide a total growth of 77
percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers
will increase by an additional three million to a
total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect
passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have
to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding
industry will profit The trend toward experience
travel will increase the demand for specialized
tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)
Within the premium travel segment mobile
islands underwater hotels and submarine travel
could be an interesting growth market The
company Deep Ocean Technology for example
develops technologies for underwater hotels
The hotel room segments can be lowered up to
30 meters below sea level Plans to implement
such a prestigious project are already in
existence25
Future Developments in Marine Economy
15
02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
16
The competition for the economic usage of
maritime space and coastal regions will intensify
For example offshore wind park operators
compete with fisheries for space neighboring
states in the Arctic fiercely compete for
resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone
and cruise ship companies fight for the best
berths and mooring times in the most attractive
port cities To the extent that the oceans become
more and more attractive because new
technologies make the oceans a more efficient
and comprehensive fountain of food resources
and energy countries and corporations will
increase their investments and activities to
develop and access this potential Considering
the continuous population growth and the
increasing shortages of resources in a worst
case scenario unresolved or overlapping
territorial claims could turn violent and provoke
political conflict For example China and other
neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the
Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea
where experts assume large sources of raw
materials
Marine economy particularly ocean trade is
strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world
economy The world wide financial crisis had led
to a significantly reduced demand for shipping
space as well as cancellations and decreased
orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the
container ship building industry particularly in
Asia the German ship building industry had to
restructure and refocus building offshore-
oriented specialty ships instead of container
ships26 The question is how long will it take for
suppliers from emerging countries particularly
from China to enter the market for tailor-made
ships and offer them at lower costs There are
dramatic changes in the balance of the world
economy Developing and emerging countries will
provide an ever larger portion of the workforce
capital technology and trade volume By 2050
experts predict growth beyond average for the
BRIC states Their share of the global social
product will grow significantly
Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges
17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets
27
As soon as ten years from now China might
replace the United States as the largest national
economy in the world Today China is already
the largest container market In addition Chinese
banks could push into the market of ship
financing while German banks reduced their
involvement in this sector following the financial
crises In the future German ship owners
interested in investing might be forced to seek
financing from Chinese banks This could have a
negative impact on the German supplier industry
The competition between individual ports will
also intensify in the future Because container
ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer
central ports will handle an ever growing portion
of the sea trade For example within the next
few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its
container business to the JadeWeser port in
Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that
is independent of the tides and therefore
attractive to giant freighters28 International
relations change too While Hamburg used to
be among the largest container ports in the
world today it ranks only in 16th place By now
six of the top ten ports in the world are in
China29
Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges
to maritime traffic Although we seem to have
skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the
mining maximum by the expansion and
increased economic viability of unconventional oil
mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil
boom likely only defers the problem to a later
time
There are no clear predictions since a decrease
of conventional oil mining will result in higher
investments in research and development of
unconventional oil resources The danger
remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will
increase continuously or at the very least be
volatile In addition modernizing refineries will
result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-
product although the demand will keep rising
For several years now ship owners have tried to
reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with
slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies
18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
19
Sustainability is becoming ever more significant
in all trades The discussion of climate protection
involves marine traffic as well Due to new
environmental regulations the shipping industry
will face major challenges in the coming years
Increased restrictions that limit the emission of
harmful substances will require the use of
expensive fuels or investment in new filtering
and propulsion technologies Among other things
this will lead to additional cost increases for
container freight30 In 2008 the International
Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits
for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease
of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the
current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In
emission control areas an even stricter limit of
10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to
01 percent by 201531
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
20
Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)
32
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
21
03Opportunities and
Future Markets
22
Economic globalization will continue in the
coming years Adjusted for price the value of the
world wide trade of goods will grow from ten
billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars
in 203033 This development will benefit the port
industry too This industry includes all activities
involved in the value creation process of loading
and unloading goods as well as the transfer of
ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and
2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year
to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will
grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By
2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50
percent within the European Union35
Improving site conditions will become ever more
important for the individual ports for example
increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces
or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks
and train The German government focuses
current investments on the expansion of seaward
access roads as well as effective inland
connections36 Globally the need for investments
in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40
billion Euro a year by 203037
Ports will also
benefit from the growth of marine power
production For example ports will play an
increasingly central role in the value chain of
offshore wind energy There are future
opportunities in the fields of montage transfer
and service38 However ports will have to invest
heavily to be able to expand their capacities
accordingly
The significance of automation and safety
technologies will increase due to the growing
transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on
data that create a network of all actors involved
in the port economy promise additional
efficiency To guarantee international
competitiveness the cooperation between
individual ports might become increasingly
relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of
the cooperation between ports in Northern
Germany to improve the port location Germany39
Opportunities and Future Markets
23Opportunities and Future Markets
By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year
40
24
The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the
marine economy It connects ports
transportation methods and companies and
guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and
people The development of the oceans as a
source of food natural resources and energy
increases the need for an expansion of offshore
infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms
at ever greater distances to the shore require
new foundations and basic structures Innovative
technological solutions can significantly
contribute to a more cost efficient operation of
such plants The demand for specialists to
transport and mount materials and components
on site will grow The market for offshore supply
ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in
2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is
an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage
of goods natural resources and energy on
specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring
great logistic advantages for loading and
unloading procedures42 The expansion of an
underwater infrastructure for power cables will
be important to the energy transport particularly
to the transport of renewable energies Within
the next ten years the number of underwater
high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of
30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater
power cable will connect Norway and Germany
helping to level green power fluctuations
Opportunities and challenges in the area of
marine economy boost numerous technological
developments Maritime technologies are a
separate future market within the area of marine
economy They are particularly important to the
fields of ship technology energy mining the
mining of natural resources and the expansion
of maritime infrastructure Additional applications
are in the areas of measurement environment
and security technology Intelligent and
autonomous systems that can operate in great
depths are highly significant44 The Canadian
start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean
Institute for Marine Science and Technology and
the British company Seabed Resources want to
use highly modern robots to mine natural
resources in the deep sea
Opportunities and Future Markets
robust
25Opportunities and Future Markets
Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45
intelligent
sustainable
autonomous
26
In the middle and long term the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks
after several boats at the same time To make
unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well because todayrsquos engine technology
requires far too much maintenance46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining maritime energy production and more47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods but
also alternative propulsion methods Liquid
natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant
in the future The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship The ship is supposed to
start operating in 201548 By 2030 international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel
methanol shore power and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport Hybrid solutions however might
prevail in the long term at least New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
10Future Developments in Marine Economy
The ocean holds huge resources from protein-
rich fish to crude oil gas and methane hydrate
as well as economically interesting minerals and
metals Biological resources are also useful in
fields such as cosmetics and medication
By the year 2030 food production will have to
increase by 50 percent to cover the growing need
of the world population Protecting the oceans as
one of the most important food sources will be a
particularly significant task because overfishing
of some fish stock is already an issue today
Products from wild catches are being replaced by
aquaculture ie controlled breeding Between
2012 and 2019 the global market for aquaculture
will grow by almost 50 percent to a total of 195
billion10 This development has a particularly
negative impact on developing countries where
peoplersquos livelihood is directly or indirectly
dependent on fishing or where nutritional
resources diminish by continued overfishing
Should fish stock be further decimated in the
future fishing regulations might tighten and
quotas intensify considerably
In the medium and long term increasing
commodity prices will make deep sea mining
attractive In the future ore in form of
manganese modules cobalt crusts and massive
sulfides will be mined as far as 4000 meters
below the surface11 Particularly manganese
modules which are rich in non-ferrous metals
provide high hopes because these metals are
used for the production of of modern high-tech
products such as smart phones solar cells wind
power plants or electric vehicles Sustainable
mining which is to say mining that will not put
too much strain on the ecosystem of the ocean
floor will provide a great challenge If we wish to
safeguard our resources in the long term the
mining of marine mineral resources is of strategic
importance Access to and research of these
resources are regulated by the International
Seabed Authority of the United Nations The rules
for commercial mining have not yet been
defined12
Between 2010 and 2040 the amount of oil mined in the deep sea will increase by more than 150 percent
13
11Future Developments in Marine Economy
Future Developments in Marine Economy 12
Nautilus Minerals from Canada is the first
company planning the mining of massive sulfides
from the seabed14 Germany owns research
licenses for two areas in the Pacific
The future of energy production also lies in the
oceans Globally about one third of natural gas
and oil is mined in the ocean and the tendency
is increasing15 The dependence of the global
economy on fossil fuels has risen to a precarious
level Almost all industrialized countries have to
import oil to cover their needs While the global
use of oil keeps growing quickly experts fear
that the maximum might be reached soon The
mining of new power sources which thus far are
not economically viable and the development of
new mining technologies are becoming more
significant In order to mine oil and gas in the
deep sea swimming platforms for example will
be needed Between 2010 and 2030 their
number will more than double to a total of 600
world wide16 In the future plants that can
operate directly on the seabed at depths of
several thousand meters will likely play an
increased role as well Suitable technologies
could revolutionize the offshore mining of natural
gas and oil and be far more cost effective than
todays platform-based plants
One of the largest fossil energy sources is
methane hydrate Countries investing most on
researching this energy source are Japan and the
USA In 2013 Japanese scientists were able to
mine gas stored one kilometer below sea level
and buried more than 300 meters deep in the
seabed Commercial mining is supposed to
commence by 2018 Offshore methane hydrate
resources could provide Japan with energy for
more than 100 years17 There are still
technological hurdles to overcome In addition
mining harbors geological and ecological risks
In addition to providing a large supply of energy
sources the oceans are also an energy source
itself Energy from wave tide and current power
plants will become a more significant part of the
regenerative energy mix The future market
marine energy is interesting for established plant
manufacturers as well as for innovative start-ups
13
Between 2013 and 2020 the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide
18
Future Developments in Marine Economy
14
The Finnish company Minesto for example
developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite
tethered to the seabed which moves with the
ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine
and a generator19
Offshore wind power will grow to become one of
the largest segments in the market for renewable
energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an
increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030
Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos
wind power will more than double to a total of 14
billion Euro By 2020 global investments in
offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20
Maritime tourism will become more significant as
well Today about 24 million people work in the
field of coastal and ocean tourism of which
150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past
few years this market has experienced an
enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the
number of passengers rose from 12 million to
213 million world wide a total growth of 77
percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers
will increase by an additional three million to a
total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect
passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have
to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding
industry will profit The trend toward experience
travel will increase the demand for specialized
tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)
Within the premium travel segment mobile
islands underwater hotels and submarine travel
could be an interesting growth market The
company Deep Ocean Technology for example
develops technologies for underwater hotels
The hotel room segments can be lowered up to
30 meters below sea level Plans to implement
such a prestigious project are already in
existence25
Future Developments in Marine Economy
15
02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
16
The competition for the economic usage of
maritime space and coastal regions will intensify
For example offshore wind park operators
compete with fisheries for space neighboring
states in the Arctic fiercely compete for
resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone
and cruise ship companies fight for the best
berths and mooring times in the most attractive
port cities To the extent that the oceans become
more and more attractive because new
technologies make the oceans a more efficient
and comprehensive fountain of food resources
and energy countries and corporations will
increase their investments and activities to
develop and access this potential Considering
the continuous population growth and the
increasing shortages of resources in a worst
case scenario unresolved or overlapping
territorial claims could turn violent and provoke
political conflict For example China and other
neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the
Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea
where experts assume large sources of raw
materials
Marine economy particularly ocean trade is
strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world
economy The world wide financial crisis had led
to a significantly reduced demand for shipping
space as well as cancellations and decreased
orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the
container ship building industry particularly in
Asia the German ship building industry had to
restructure and refocus building offshore-
oriented specialty ships instead of container
ships26 The question is how long will it take for
suppliers from emerging countries particularly
from China to enter the market for tailor-made
ships and offer them at lower costs There are
dramatic changes in the balance of the world
economy Developing and emerging countries will
provide an ever larger portion of the workforce
capital technology and trade volume By 2050
experts predict growth beyond average for the
BRIC states Their share of the global social
product will grow significantly
Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges
17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets
27
As soon as ten years from now China might
replace the United States as the largest national
economy in the world Today China is already
the largest container market In addition Chinese
banks could push into the market of ship
financing while German banks reduced their
involvement in this sector following the financial
crises In the future German ship owners
interested in investing might be forced to seek
financing from Chinese banks This could have a
negative impact on the German supplier industry
The competition between individual ports will
also intensify in the future Because container
ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer
central ports will handle an ever growing portion
of the sea trade For example within the next
few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its
container business to the JadeWeser port in
Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that
is independent of the tides and therefore
attractive to giant freighters28 International
relations change too While Hamburg used to
be among the largest container ports in the
world today it ranks only in 16th place By now
six of the top ten ports in the world are in
China29
Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges
to maritime traffic Although we seem to have
skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the
mining maximum by the expansion and
increased economic viability of unconventional oil
mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil
boom likely only defers the problem to a later
time
There are no clear predictions since a decrease
of conventional oil mining will result in higher
investments in research and development of
unconventional oil resources The danger
remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will
increase continuously or at the very least be
volatile In addition modernizing refineries will
result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-
product although the demand will keep rising
For several years now ship owners have tried to
reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with
slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies
18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
19
Sustainability is becoming ever more significant
in all trades The discussion of climate protection
involves marine traffic as well Due to new
environmental regulations the shipping industry
will face major challenges in the coming years
Increased restrictions that limit the emission of
harmful substances will require the use of
expensive fuels or investment in new filtering
and propulsion technologies Among other things
this will lead to additional cost increases for
container freight30 In 2008 the International
Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits
for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease
of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the
current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In
emission control areas an even stricter limit of
10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to
01 percent by 201531
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
20
Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)
32
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
21
03Opportunities and
Future Markets
22
Economic globalization will continue in the
coming years Adjusted for price the value of the
world wide trade of goods will grow from ten
billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars
in 203033 This development will benefit the port
industry too This industry includes all activities
involved in the value creation process of loading
and unloading goods as well as the transfer of
ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and
2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year
to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will
grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By
2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50
percent within the European Union35
Improving site conditions will become ever more
important for the individual ports for example
increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces
or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks
and train The German government focuses
current investments on the expansion of seaward
access roads as well as effective inland
connections36 Globally the need for investments
in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40
billion Euro a year by 203037
Ports will also
benefit from the growth of marine power
production For example ports will play an
increasingly central role in the value chain of
offshore wind energy There are future
opportunities in the fields of montage transfer
and service38 However ports will have to invest
heavily to be able to expand their capacities
accordingly
The significance of automation and safety
technologies will increase due to the growing
transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on
data that create a network of all actors involved
in the port economy promise additional
efficiency To guarantee international
competitiveness the cooperation between
individual ports might become increasingly
relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of
the cooperation between ports in Northern
Germany to improve the port location Germany39
Opportunities and Future Markets
23Opportunities and Future Markets
By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year
40
24
The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the
marine economy It connects ports
transportation methods and companies and
guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and
people The development of the oceans as a
source of food natural resources and energy
increases the need for an expansion of offshore
infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms
at ever greater distances to the shore require
new foundations and basic structures Innovative
technological solutions can significantly
contribute to a more cost efficient operation of
such plants The demand for specialists to
transport and mount materials and components
on site will grow The market for offshore supply
ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in
2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is
an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage
of goods natural resources and energy on
specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring
great logistic advantages for loading and
unloading procedures42 The expansion of an
underwater infrastructure for power cables will
be important to the energy transport particularly
to the transport of renewable energies Within
the next ten years the number of underwater
high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of
30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater
power cable will connect Norway and Germany
helping to level green power fluctuations
Opportunities and challenges in the area of
marine economy boost numerous technological
developments Maritime technologies are a
separate future market within the area of marine
economy They are particularly important to the
fields of ship technology energy mining the
mining of natural resources and the expansion
of maritime infrastructure Additional applications
are in the areas of measurement environment
and security technology Intelligent and
autonomous systems that can operate in great
depths are highly significant44 The Canadian
start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean
Institute for Marine Science and Technology and
the British company Seabed Resources want to
use highly modern robots to mine natural
resources in the deep sea
Opportunities and Future Markets
robust
25Opportunities and Future Markets
Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45
intelligent
sustainable
autonomous
26
In the middle and long term the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks
after several boats at the same time To make
unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well because todayrsquos engine technology
requires far too much maintenance46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining maritime energy production and more47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods but
also alternative propulsion methods Liquid
natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant
in the future The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship The ship is supposed to
start operating in 201548 By 2030 international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel
methanol shore power and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport Hybrid solutions however might
prevail in the long term at least New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
Between 2010 and 2040 the amount of oil mined in the deep sea will increase by more than 150 percent
13
11Future Developments in Marine Economy
Future Developments in Marine Economy 12
Nautilus Minerals from Canada is the first
company planning the mining of massive sulfides
from the seabed14 Germany owns research
licenses for two areas in the Pacific
The future of energy production also lies in the
oceans Globally about one third of natural gas
and oil is mined in the ocean and the tendency
is increasing15 The dependence of the global
economy on fossil fuels has risen to a precarious
level Almost all industrialized countries have to
import oil to cover their needs While the global
use of oil keeps growing quickly experts fear
that the maximum might be reached soon The
mining of new power sources which thus far are
not economically viable and the development of
new mining technologies are becoming more
significant In order to mine oil and gas in the
deep sea swimming platforms for example will
be needed Between 2010 and 2030 their
number will more than double to a total of 600
world wide16 In the future plants that can
operate directly on the seabed at depths of
several thousand meters will likely play an
increased role as well Suitable technologies
could revolutionize the offshore mining of natural
gas and oil and be far more cost effective than
todays platform-based plants
One of the largest fossil energy sources is
methane hydrate Countries investing most on
researching this energy source are Japan and the
USA In 2013 Japanese scientists were able to
mine gas stored one kilometer below sea level
and buried more than 300 meters deep in the
seabed Commercial mining is supposed to
commence by 2018 Offshore methane hydrate
resources could provide Japan with energy for
more than 100 years17 There are still
technological hurdles to overcome In addition
mining harbors geological and ecological risks
In addition to providing a large supply of energy
sources the oceans are also an energy source
itself Energy from wave tide and current power
plants will become a more significant part of the
regenerative energy mix The future market
marine energy is interesting for established plant
manufacturers as well as for innovative start-ups
13
Between 2013 and 2020 the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide
18
Future Developments in Marine Economy
14
The Finnish company Minesto for example
developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite
tethered to the seabed which moves with the
ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine
and a generator19
Offshore wind power will grow to become one of
the largest segments in the market for renewable
energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an
increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030
Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos
wind power will more than double to a total of 14
billion Euro By 2020 global investments in
offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20
Maritime tourism will become more significant as
well Today about 24 million people work in the
field of coastal and ocean tourism of which
150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past
few years this market has experienced an
enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the
number of passengers rose from 12 million to
213 million world wide a total growth of 77
percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers
will increase by an additional three million to a
total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect
passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have
to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding
industry will profit The trend toward experience
travel will increase the demand for specialized
tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)
Within the premium travel segment mobile
islands underwater hotels and submarine travel
could be an interesting growth market The
company Deep Ocean Technology for example
develops technologies for underwater hotels
The hotel room segments can be lowered up to
30 meters below sea level Plans to implement
such a prestigious project are already in
existence25
Future Developments in Marine Economy
15
02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
16
The competition for the economic usage of
maritime space and coastal regions will intensify
For example offshore wind park operators
compete with fisheries for space neighboring
states in the Arctic fiercely compete for
resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone
and cruise ship companies fight for the best
berths and mooring times in the most attractive
port cities To the extent that the oceans become
more and more attractive because new
technologies make the oceans a more efficient
and comprehensive fountain of food resources
and energy countries and corporations will
increase their investments and activities to
develop and access this potential Considering
the continuous population growth and the
increasing shortages of resources in a worst
case scenario unresolved or overlapping
territorial claims could turn violent and provoke
political conflict For example China and other
neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the
Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea
where experts assume large sources of raw
materials
Marine economy particularly ocean trade is
strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world
economy The world wide financial crisis had led
to a significantly reduced demand for shipping
space as well as cancellations and decreased
orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the
container ship building industry particularly in
Asia the German ship building industry had to
restructure and refocus building offshore-
oriented specialty ships instead of container
ships26 The question is how long will it take for
suppliers from emerging countries particularly
from China to enter the market for tailor-made
ships and offer them at lower costs There are
dramatic changes in the balance of the world
economy Developing and emerging countries will
provide an ever larger portion of the workforce
capital technology and trade volume By 2050
experts predict growth beyond average for the
BRIC states Their share of the global social
product will grow significantly
Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges
17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets
27
As soon as ten years from now China might
replace the United States as the largest national
economy in the world Today China is already
the largest container market In addition Chinese
banks could push into the market of ship
financing while German banks reduced their
involvement in this sector following the financial
crises In the future German ship owners
interested in investing might be forced to seek
financing from Chinese banks This could have a
negative impact on the German supplier industry
The competition between individual ports will
also intensify in the future Because container
ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer
central ports will handle an ever growing portion
of the sea trade For example within the next
few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its
container business to the JadeWeser port in
Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that
is independent of the tides and therefore
attractive to giant freighters28 International
relations change too While Hamburg used to
be among the largest container ports in the
world today it ranks only in 16th place By now
six of the top ten ports in the world are in
China29
Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges
to maritime traffic Although we seem to have
skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the
mining maximum by the expansion and
increased economic viability of unconventional oil
mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil
boom likely only defers the problem to a later
time
There are no clear predictions since a decrease
of conventional oil mining will result in higher
investments in research and development of
unconventional oil resources The danger
remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will
increase continuously or at the very least be
volatile In addition modernizing refineries will
result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-
product although the demand will keep rising
For several years now ship owners have tried to
reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with
slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies
18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
19
Sustainability is becoming ever more significant
in all trades The discussion of climate protection
involves marine traffic as well Due to new
environmental regulations the shipping industry
will face major challenges in the coming years
Increased restrictions that limit the emission of
harmful substances will require the use of
expensive fuels or investment in new filtering
and propulsion technologies Among other things
this will lead to additional cost increases for
container freight30 In 2008 the International
Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits
for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease
of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the
current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In
emission control areas an even stricter limit of
10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to
01 percent by 201531
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
20
Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)
32
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
21
03Opportunities and
Future Markets
22
Economic globalization will continue in the
coming years Adjusted for price the value of the
world wide trade of goods will grow from ten
billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars
in 203033 This development will benefit the port
industry too This industry includes all activities
involved in the value creation process of loading
and unloading goods as well as the transfer of
ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and
2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year
to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will
grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By
2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50
percent within the European Union35
Improving site conditions will become ever more
important for the individual ports for example
increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces
or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks
and train The German government focuses
current investments on the expansion of seaward
access roads as well as effective inland
connections36 Globally the need for investments
in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40
billion Euro a year by 203037
Ports will also
benefit from the growth of marine power
production For example ports will play an
increasingly central role in the value chain of
offshore wind energy There are future
opportunities in the fields of montage transfer
and service38 However ports will have to invest
heavily to be able to expand their capacities
accordingly
The significance of automation and safety
technologies will increase due to the growing
transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on
data that create a network of all actors involved
in the port economy promise additional
efficiency To guarantee international
competitiveness the cooperation between
individual ports might become increasingly
relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of
the cooperation between ports in Northern
Germany to improve the port location Germany39
Opportunities and Future Markets
23Opportunities and Future Markets
By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year
40
24
The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the
marine economy It connects ports
transportation methods and companies and
guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and
people The development of the oceans as a
source of food natural resources and energy
increases the need for an expansion of offshore
infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms
at ever greater distances to the shore require
new foundations and basic structures Innovative
technological solutions can significantly
contribute to a more cost efficient operation of
such plants The demand for specialists to
transport and mount materials and components
on site will grow The market for offshore supply
ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in
2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is
an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage
of goods natural resources and energy on
specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring
great logistic advantages for loading and
unloading procedures42 The expansion of an
underwater infrastructure for power cables will
be important to the energy transport particularly
to the transport of renewable energies Within
the next ten years the number of underwater
high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of
30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater
power cable will connect Norway and Germany
helping to level green power fluctuations
Opportunities and challenges in the area of
marine economy boost numerous technological
developments Maritime technologies are a
separate future market within the area of marine
economy They are particularly important to the
fields of ship technology energy mining the
mining of natural resources and the expansion
of maritime infrastructure Additional applications
are in the areas of measurement environment
and security technology Intelligent and
autonomous systems that can operate in great
depths are highly significant44 The Canadian
start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean
Institute for Marine Science and Technology and
the British company Seabed Resources want to
use highly modern robots to mine natural
resources in the deep sea
Opportunities and Future Markets
robust
25Opportunities and Future Markets
Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45
intelligent
sustainable
autonomous
26
In the middle and long term the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks
after several boats at the same time To make
unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well because todayrsquos engine technology
requires far too much maintenance46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining maritime energy production and more47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods but
also alternative propulsion methods Liquid
natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant
in the future The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship The ship is supposed to
start operating in 201548 By 2030 international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel
methanol shore power and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport Hybrid solutions however might
prevail in the long term at least New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
Future Developments in Marine Economy 12
Nautilus Minerals from Canada is the first
company planning the mining of massive sulfides
from the seabed14 Germany owns research
licenses for two areas in the Pacific
The future of energy production also lies in the
oceans Globally about one third of natural gas
and oil is mined in the ocean and the tendency
is increasing15 The dependence of the global
economy on fossil fuels has risen to a precarious
level Almost all industrialized countries have to
import oil to cover their needs While the global
use of oil keeps growing quickly experts fear
that the maximum might be reached soon The
mining of new power sources which thus far are
not economically viable and the development of
new mining technologies are becoming more
significant In order to mine oil and gas in the
deep sea swimming platforms for example will
be needed Between 2010 and 2030 their
number will more than double to a total of 600
world wide16 In the future plants that can
operate directly on the seabed at depths of
several thousand meters will likely play an
increased role as well Suitable technologies
could revolutionize the offshore mining of natural
gas and oil and be far more cost effective than
todays platform-based plants
One of the largest fossil energy sources is
methane hydrate Countries investing most on
researching this energy source are Japan and the
USA In 2013 Japanese scientists were able to
mine gas stored one kilometer below sea level
and buried more than 300 meters deep in the
seabed Commercial mining is supposed to
commence by 2018 Offshore methane hydrate
resources could provide Japan with energy for
more than 100 years17 There are still
technological hurdles to overcome In addition
mining harbors geological and ecological risks
In addition to providing a large supply of energy
sources the oceans are also an energy source
itself Energy from wave tide and current power
plants will become a more significant part of the
regenerative energy mix The future market
marine energy is interesting for established plant
manufacturers as well as for innovative start-ups
13
Between 2013 and 2020 the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide
18
Future Developments in Marine Economy
14
The Finnish company Minesto for example
developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite
tethered to the seabed which moves with the
ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine
and a generator19
Offshore wind power will grow to become one of
the largest segments in the market for renewable
energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an
increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030
Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos
wind power will more than double to a total of 14
billion Euro By 2020 global investments in
offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20
Maritime tourism will become more significant as
well Today about 24 million people work in the
field of coastal and ocean tourism of which
150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past
few years this market has experienced an
enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the
number of passengers rose from 12 million to
213 million world wide a total growth of 77
percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers
will increase by an additional three million to a
total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect
passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have
to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding
industry will profit The trend toward experience
travel will increase the demand for specialized
tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)
Within the premium travel segment mobile
islands underwater hotels and submarine travel
could be an interesting growth market The
company Deep Ocean Technology for example
develops technologies for underwater hotels
The hotel room segments can be lowered up to
30 meters below sea level Plans to implement
such a prestigious project are already in
existence25
Future Developments in Marine Economy
15
02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
16
The competition for the economic usage of
maritime space and coastal regions will intensify
For example offshore wind park operators
compete with fisheries for space neighboring
states in the Arctic fiercely compete for
resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone
and cruise ship companies fight for the best
berths and mooring times in the most attractive
port cities To the extent that the oceans become
more and more attractive because new
technologies make the oceans a more efficient
and comprehensive fountain of food resources
and energy countries and corporations will
increase their investments and activities to
develop and access this potential Considering
the continuous population growth and the
increasing shortages of resources in a worst
case scenario unresolved or overlapping
territorial claims could turn violent and provoke
political conflict For example China and other
neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the
Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea
where experts assume large sources of raw
materials
Marine economy particularly ocean trade is
strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world
economy The world wide financial crisis had led
to a significantly reduced demand for shipping
space as well as cancellations and decreased
orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the
container ship building industry particularly in
Asia the German ship building industry had to
restructure and refocus building offshore-
oriented specialty ships instead of container
ships26 The question is how long will it take for
suppliers from emerging countries particularly
from China to enter the market for tailor-made
ships and offer them at lower costs There are
dramatic changes in the balance of the world
economy Developing and emerging countries will
provide an ever larger portion of the workforce
capital technology and trade volume By 2050
experts predict growth beyond average for the
BRIC states Their share of the global social
product will grow significantly
Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges
17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets
27
As soon as ten years from now China might
replace the United States as the largest national
economy in the world Today China is already
the largest container market In addition Chinese
banks could push into the market of ship
financing while German banks reduced their
involvement in this sector following the financial
crises In the future German ship owners
interested in investing might be forced to seek
financing from Chinese banks This could have a
negative impact on the German supplier industry
The competition between individual ports will
also intensify in the future Because container
ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer
central ports will handle an ever growing portion
of the sea trade For example within the next
few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its
container business to the JadeWeser port in
Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that
is independent of the tides and therefore
attractive to giant freighters28 International
relations change too While Hamburg used to
be among the largest container ports in the
world today it ranks only in 16th place By now
six of the top ten ports in the world are in
China29
Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges
to maritime traffic Although we seem to have
skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the
mining maximum by the expansion and
increased economic viability of unconventional oil
mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil
boom likely only defers the problem to a later
time
There are no clear predictions since a decrease
of conventional oil mining will result in higher
investments in research and development of
unconventional oil resources The danger
remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will
increase continuously or at the very least be
volatile In addition modernizing refineries will
result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-
product although the demand will keep rising
For several years now ship owners have tried to
reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with
slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies
18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
19
Sustainability is becoming ever more significant
in all trades The discussion of climate protection
involves marine traffic as well Due to new
environmental regulations the shipping industry
will face major challenges in the coming years
Increased restrictions that limit the emission of
harmful substances will require the use of
expensive fuels or investment in new filtering
and propulsion technologies Among other things
this will lead to additional cost increases for
container freight30 In 2008 the International
Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits
for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease
of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the
current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In
emission control areas an even stricter limit of
10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to
01 percent by 201531
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
20
Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)
32
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
21
03Opportunities and
Future Markets
22
Economic globalization will continue in the
coming years Adjusted for price the value of the
world wide trade of goods will grow from ten
billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars
in 203033 This development will benefit the port
industry too This industry includes all activities
involved in the value creation process of loading
and unloading goods as well as the transfer of
ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and
2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year
to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will
grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By
2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50
percent within the European Union35
Improving site conditions will become ever more
important for the individual ports for example
increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces
or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks
and train The German government focuses
current investments on the expansion of seaward
access roads as well as effective inland
connections36 Globally the need for investments
in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40
billion Euro a year by 203037
Ports will also
benefit from the growth of marine power
production For example ports will play an
increasingly central role in the value chain of
offshore wind energy There are future
opportunities in the fields of montage transfer
and service38 However ports will have to invest
heavily to be able to expand their capacities
accordingly
The significance of automation and safety
technologies will increase due to the growing
transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on
data that create a network of all actors involved
in the port economy promise additional
efficiency To guarantee international
competitiveness the cooperation between
individual ports might become increasingly
relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of
the cooperation between ports in Northern
Germany to improve the port location Germany39
Opportunities and Future Markets
23Opportunities and Future Markets
By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year
40
24
The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the
marine economy It connects ports
transportation methods and companies and
guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and
people The development of the oceans as a
source of food natural resources and energy
increases the need for an expansion of offshore
infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms
at ever greater distances to the shore require
new foundations and basic structures Innovative
technological solutions can significantly
contribute to a more cost efficient operation of
such plants The demand for specialists to
transport and mount materials and components
on site will grow The market for offshore supply
ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in
2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is
an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage
of goods natural resources and energy on
specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring
great logistic advantages for loading and
unloading procedures42 The expansion of an
underwater infrastructure for power cables will
be important to the energy transport particularly
to the transport of renewable energies Within
the next ten years the number of underwater
high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of
30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater
power cable will connect Norway and Germany
helping to level green power fluctuations
Opportunities and challenges in the area of
marine economy boost numerous technological
developments Maritime technologies are a
separate future market within the area of marine
economy They are particularly important to the
fields of ship technology energy mining the
mining of natural resources and the expansion
of maritime infrastructure Additional applications
are in the areas of measurement environment
and security technology Intelligent and
autonomous systems that can operate in great
depths are highly significant44 The Canadian
start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean
Institute for Marine Science and Technology and
the British company Seabed Resources want to
use highly modern robots to mine natural
resources in the deep sea
Opportunities and Future Markets
robust
25Opportunities and Future Markets
Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45
intelligent
sustainable
autonomous
26
In the middle and long term the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks
after several boats at the same time To make
unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well because todayrsquos engine technology
requires far too much maintenance46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining maritime energy production and more47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods but
also alternative propulsion methods Liquid
natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant
in the future The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship The ship is supposed to
start operating in 201548 By 2030 international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel
methanol shore power and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport Hybrid solutions however might
prevail in the long term at least New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
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Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
13
Between 2013 and 2020 the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide
18
Future Developments in Marine Economy
14
The Finnish company Minesto for example
developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite
tethered to the seabed which moves with the
ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine
and a generator19
Offshore wind power will grow to become one of
the largest segments in the market for renewable
energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an
increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030
Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos
wind power will more than double to a total of 14
billion Euro By 2020 global investments in
offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20
Maritime tourism will become more significant as
well Today about 24 million people work in the
field of coastal and ocean tourism of which
150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past
few years this market has experienced an
enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the
number of passengers rose from 12 million to
213 million world wide a total growth of 77
percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers
will increase by an additional three million to a
total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect
passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have
to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding
industry will profit The trend toward experience
travel will increase the demand for specialized
tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)
Within the premium travel segment mobile
islands underwater hotels and submarine travel
could be an interesting growth market The
company Deep Ocean Technology for example
develops technologies for underwater hotels
The hotel room segments can be lowered up to
30 meters below sea level Plans to implement
such a prestigious project are already in
existence25
Future Developments in Marine Economy
15
02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
16
The competition for the economic usage of
maritime space and coastal regions will intensify
For example offshore wind park operators
compete with fisheries for space neighboring
states in the Arctic fiercely compete for
resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone
and cruise ship companies fight for the best
berths and mooring times in the most attractive
port cities To the extent that the oceans become
more and more attractive because new
technologies make the oceans a more efficient
and comprehensive fountain of food resources
and energy countries and corporations will
increase their investments and activities to
develop and access this potential Considering
the continuous population growth and the
increasing shortages of resources in a worst
case scenario unresolved or overlapping
territorial claims could turn violent and provoke
political conflict For example China and other
neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the
Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea
where experts assume large sources of raw
materials
Marine economy particularly ocean trade is
strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world
economy The world wide financial crisis had led
to a significantly reduced demand for shipping
space as well as cancellations and decreased
orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the
container ship building industry particularly in
Asia the German ship building industry had to
restructure and refocus building offshore-
oriented specialty ships instead of container
ships26 The question is how long will it take for
suppliers from emerging countries particularly
from China to enter the market for tailor-made
ships and offer them at lower costs There are
dramatic changes in the balance of the world
economy Developing and emerging countries will
provide an ever larger portion of the workforce
capital technology and trade volume By 2050
experts predict growth beyond average for the
BRIC states Their share of the global social
product will grow significantly
Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges
17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets
27
As soon as ten years from now China might
replace the United States as the largest national
economy in the world Today China is already
the largest container market In addition Chinese
banks could push into the market of ship
financing while German banks reduced their
involvement in this sector following the financial
crises In the future German ship owners
interested in investing might be forced to seek
financing from Chinese banks This could have a
negative impact on the German supplier industry
The competition between individual ports will
also intensify in the future Because container
ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer
central ports will handle an ever growing portion
of the sea trade For example within the next
few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its
container business to the JadeWeser port in
Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that
is independent of the tides and therefore
attractive to giant freighters28 International
relations change too While Hamburg used to
be among the largest container ports in the
world today it ranks only in 16th place By now
six of the top ten ports in the world are in
China29
Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges
to maritime traffic Although we seem to have
skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the
mining maximum by the expansion and
increased economic viability of unconventional oil
mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil
boom likely only defers the problem to a later
time
There are no clear predictions since a decrease
of conventional oil mining will result in higher
investments in research and development of
unconventional oil resources The danger
remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will
increase continuously or at the very least be
volatile In addition modernizing refineries will
result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-
product although the demand will keep rising
For several years now ship owners have tried to
reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with
slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies
18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
19
Sustainability is becoming ever more significant
in all trades The discussion of climate protection
involves marine traffic as well Due to new
environmental regulations the shipping industry
will face major challenges in the coming years
Increased restrictions that limit the emission of
harmful substances will require the use of
expensive fuels or investment in new filtering
and propulsion technologies Among other things
this will lead to additional cost increases for
container freight30 In 2008 the International
Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits
for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease
of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the
current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In
emission control areas an even stricter limit of
10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to
01 percent by 201531
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
20
Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)
32
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
21
03Opportunities and
Future Markets
22
Economic globalization will continue in the
coming years Adjusted for price the value of the
world wide trade of goods will grow from ten
billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars
in 203033 This development will benefit the port
industry too This industry includes all activities
involved in the value creation process of loading
and unloading goods as well as the transfer of
ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and
2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year
to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will
grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By
2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50
percent within the European Union35
Improving site conditions will become ever more
important for the individual ports for example
increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces
or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks
and train The German government focuses
current investments on the expansion of seaward
access roads as well as effective inland
connections36 Globally the need for investments
in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40
billion Euro a year by 203037
Ports will also
benefit from the growth of marine power
production For example ports will play an
increasingly central role in the value chain of
offshore wind energy There are future
opportunities in the fields of montage transfer
and service38 However ports will have to invest
heavily to be able to expand their capacities
accordingly
The significance of automation and safety
technologies will increase due to the growing
transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on
data that create a network of all actors involved
in the port economy promise additional
efficiency To guarantee international
competitiveness the cooperation between
individual ports might become increasingly
relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of
the cooperation between ports in Northern
Germany to improve the port location Germany39
Opportunities and Future Markets
23Opportunities and Future Markets
By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year
40
24
The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the
marine economy It connects ports
transportation methods and companies and
guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and
people The development of the oceans as a
source of food natural resources and energy
increases the need for an expansion of offshore
infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms
at ever greater distances to the shore require
new foundations and basic structures Innovative
technological solutions can significantly
contribute to a more cost efficient operation of
such plants The demand for specialists to
transport and mount materials and components
on site will grow The market for offshore supply
ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in
2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is
an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage
of goods natural resources and energy on
specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring
great logistic advantages for loading and
unloading procedures42 The expansion of an
underwater infrastructure for power cables will
be important to the energy transport particularly
to the transport of renewable energies Within
the next ten years the number of underwater
high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of
30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater
power cable will connect Norway and Germany
helping to level green power fluctuations
Opportunities and challenges in the area of
marine economy boost numerous technological
developments Maritime technologies are a
separate future market within the area of marine
economy They are particularly important to the
fields of ship technology energy mining the
mining of natural resources and the expansion
of maritime infrastructure Additional applications
are in the areas of measurement environment
and security technology Intelligent and
autonomous systems that can operate in great
depths are highly significant44 The Canadian
start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean
Institute for Marine Science and Technology and
the British company Seabed Resources want to
use highly modern robots to mine natural
resources in the deep sea
Opportunities and Future Markets
robust
25Opportunities and Future Markets
Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45
intelligent
sustainable
autonomous
26
In the middle and long term the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks
after several boats at the same time To make
unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well because todayrsquos engine technology
requires far too much maintenance46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining maritime energy production and more47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods but
also alternative propulsion methods Liquid
natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant
in the future The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship The ship is supposed to
start operating in 201548 By 2030 international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel
methanol shore power and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport Hybrid solutions however might
prevail in the long term at least New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
14
The Finnish company Minesto for example
developed lsquoDeep Greenrsquo an undersea kite
tethered to the seabed which moves with the
ocean current thus creating energy via a turbine
and a generator19
Offshore wind power will grow to become one of
the largest segments in the market for renewable
energies Germanyrsquos energy concept plans an
increase in this area up to 25000 MW by 2030
Between 2013 and 2020 investments in Europersquos
wind power will more than double to a total of 14
billion Euro By 2020 global investments in
offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion20
Maritime tourism will become more significant as
well Today about 24 million people work in the
field of coastal and ocean tourism of which
150000 work in the cruise industry21 In the past
few years this market has experienced an
enormous boom Between 2003 and 2013 the
number of passengers rose from 12 million to
213 million world wide a total growth of 77
percent22 By 2018 the number of passengers
will increase by an additional three million to a
total of 241 million23 In 2025 experts expect
passenger traffic of 364 million24 Providers have
to expand their fleets The German shipbuilding
industry will profit The trend toward experience
travel will increase the demand for specialized
tourism (fun sports adventure wellness etc)
Within the premium travel segment mobile
islands underwater hotels and submarine travel
could be an interesting growth market The
company Deep Ocean Technology for example
develops technologies for underwater hotels
The hotel room segments can be lowered up to
30 meters below sea level Plans to implement
such a prestigious project are already in
existence25
Future Developments in Marine Economy
15
02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
16
The competition for the economic usage of
maritime space and coastal regions will intensify
For example offshore wind park operators
compete with fisheries for space neighboring
states in the Arctic fiercely compete for
resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone
and cruise ship companies fight for the best
berths and mooring times in the most attractive
port cities To the extent that the oceans become
more and more attractive because new
technologies make the oceans a more efficient
and comprehensive fountain of food resources
and energy countries and corporations will
increase their investments and activities to
develop and access this potential Considering
the continuous population growth and the
increasing shortages of resources in a worst
case scenario unresolved or overlapping
territorial claims could turn violent and provoke
political conflict For example China and other
neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the
Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea
where experts assume large sources of raw
materials
Marine economy particularly ocean trade is
strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world
economy The world wide financial crisis had led
to a significantly reduced demand for shipping
space as well as cancellations and decreased
orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the
container ship building industry particularly in
Asia the German ship building industry had to
restructure and refocus building offshore-
oriented specialty ships instead of container
ships26 The question is how long will it take for
suppliers from emerging countries particularly
from China to enter the market for tailor-made
ships and offer them at lower costs There are
dramatic changes in the balance of the world
economy Developing and emerging countries will
provide an ever larger portion of the workforce
capital technology and trade volume By 2050
experts predict growth beyond average for the
BRIC states Their share of the global social
product will grow significantly
Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges
17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets
27
As soon as ten years from now China might
replace the United States as the largest national
economy in the world Today China is already
the largest container market In addition Chinese
banks could push into the market of ship
financing while German banks reduced their
involvement in this sector following the financial
crises In the future German ship owners
interested in investing might be forced to seek
financing from Chinese banks This could have a
negative impact on the German supplier industry
The competition between individual ports will
also intensify in the future Because container
ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer
central ports will handle an ever growing portion
of the sea trade For example within the next
few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its
container business to the JadeWeser port in
Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that
is independent of the tides and therefore
attractive to giant freighters28 International
relations change too While Hamburg used to
be among the largest container ports in the
world today it ranks only in 16th place By now
six of the top ten ports in the world are in
China29
Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges
to maritime traffic Although we seem to have
skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the
mining maximum by the expansion and
increased economic viability of unconventional oil
mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil
boom likely only defers the problem to a later
time
There are no clear predictions since a decrease
of conventional oil mining will result in higher
investments in research and development of
unconventional oil resources The danger
remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will
increase continuously or at the very least be
volatile In addition modernizing refineries will
result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-
product although the demand will keep rising
For several years now ship owners have tried to
reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with
slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies
18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
19
Sustainability is becoming ever more significant
in all trades The discussion of climate protection
involves marine traffic as well Due to new
environmental regulations the shipping industry
will face major challenges in the coming years
Increased restrictions that limit the emission of
harmful substances will require the use of
expensive fuels or investment in new filtering
and propulsion technologies Among other things
this will lead to additional cost increases for
container freight30 In 2008 the International
Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits
for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease
of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the
current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In
emission control areas an even stricter limit of
10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to
01 percent by 201531
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
20
Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)
32
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
21
03Opportunities and
Future Markets
22
Economic globalization will continue in the
coming years Adjusted for price the value of the
world wide trade of goods will grow from ten
billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars
in 203033 This development will benefit the port
industry too This industry includes all activities
involved in the value creation process of loading
and unloading goods as well as the transfer of
ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and
2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year
to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will
grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By
2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50
percent within the European Union35
Improving site conditions will become ever more
important for the individual ports for example
increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces
or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks
and train The German government focuses
current investments on the expansion of seaward
access roads as well as effective inland
connections36 Globally the need for investments
in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40
billion Euro a year by 203037
Ports will also
benefit from the growth of marine power
production For example ports will play an
increasingly central role in the value chain of
offshore wind energy There are future
opportunities in the fields of montage transfer
and service38 However ports will have to invest
heavily to be able to expand their capacities
accordingly
The significance of automation and safety
technologies will increase due to the growing
transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on
data that create a network of all actors involved
in the port economy promise additional
efficiency To guarantee international
competitiveness the cooperation between
individual ports might become increasingly
relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of
the cooperation between ports in Northern
Germany to improve the port location Germany39
Opportunities and Future Markets
23Opportunities and Future Markets
By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year
40
24
The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the
marine economy It connects ports
transportation methods and companies and
guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and
people The development of the oceans as a
source of food natural resources and energy
increases the need for an expansion of offshore
infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms
at ever greater distances to the shore require
new foundations and basic structures Innovative
technological solutions can significantly
contribute to a more cost efficient operation of
such plants The demand for specialists to
transport and mount materials and components
on site will grow The market for offshore supply
ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in
2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is
an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage
of goods natural resources and energy on
specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring
great logistic advantages for loading and
unloading procedures42 The expansion of an
underwater infrastructure for power cables will
be important to the energy transport particularly
to the transport of renewable energies Within
the next ten years the number of underwater
high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of
30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater
power cable will connect Norway and Germany
helping to level green power fluctuations
Opportunities and challenges in the area of
marine economy boost numerous technological
developments Maritime technologies are a
separate future market within the area of marine
economy They are particularly important to the
fields of ship technology energy mining the
mining of natural resources and the expansion
of maritime infrastructure Additional applications
are in the areas of measurement environment
and security technology Intelligent and
autonomous systems that can operate in great
depths are highly significant44 The Canadian
start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean
Institute for Marine Science and Technology and
the British company Seabed Resources want to
use highly modern robots to mine natural
resources in the deep sea
Opportunities and Future Markets
robust
25Opportunities and Future Markets
Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45
intelligent
sustainable
autonomous
26
In the middle and long term the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks
after several boats at the same time To make
unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well because todayrsquos engine technology
requires far too much maintenance46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining maritime energy production and more47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods but
also alternative propulsion methods Liquid
natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant
in the future The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship The ship is supposed to
start operating in 201548 By 2030 international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel
methanol shore power and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport Hybrid solutions however might
prevail in the long term at least New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
15
02Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
16
The competition for the economic usage of
maritime space and coastal regions will intensify
For example offshore wind park operators
compete with fisheries for space neighboring
states in the Arctic fiercely compete for
resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone
and cruise ship companies fight for the best
berths and mooring times in the most attractive
port cities To the extent that the oceans become
more and more attractive because new
technologies make the oceans a more efficient
and comprehensive fountain of food resources
and energy countries and corporations will
increase their investments and activities to
develop and access this potential Considering
the continuous population growth and the
increasing shortages of resources in a worst
case scenario unresolved or overlapping
territorial claims could turn violent and provoke
political conflict For example China and other
neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the
Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea
where experts assume large sources of raw
materials
Marine economy particularly ocean trade is
strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world
economy The world wide financial crisis had led
to a significantly reduced demand for shipping
space as well as cancellations and decreased
orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the
container ship building industry particularly in
Asia the German ship building industry had to
restructure and refocus building offshore-
oriented specialty ships instead of container
ships26 The question is how long will it take for
suppliers from emerging countries particularly
from China to enter the market for tailor-made
ships and offer them at lower costs There are
dramatic changes in the balance of the world
economy Developing and emerging countries will
provide an ever larger portion of the workforce
capital technology and trade volume By 2050
experts predict growth beyond average for the
BRIC states Their share of the global social
product will grow significantly
Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges
17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets
27
As soon as ten years from now China might
replace the United States as the largest national
economy in the world Today China is already
the largest container market In addition Chinese
banks could push into the market of ship
financing while German banks reduced their
involvement in this sector following the financial
crises In the future German ship owners
interested in investing might be forced to seek
financing from Chinese banks This could have a
negative impact on the German supplier industry
The competition between individual ports will
also intensify in the future Because container
ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer
central ports will handle an ever growing portion
of the sea trade For example within the next
few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its
container business to the JadeWeser port in
Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that
is independent of the tides and therefore
attractive to giant freighters28 International
relations change too While Hamburg used to
be among the largest container ports in the
world today it ranks only in 16th place By now
six of the top ten ports in the world are in
China29
Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges
to maritime traffic Although we seem to have
skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the
mining maximum by the expansion and
increased economic viability of unconventional oil
mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil
boom likely only defers the problem to a later
time
There are no clear predictions since a decrease
of conventional oil mining will result in higher
investments in research and development of
unconventional oil resources The danger
remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will
increase continuously or at the very least be
volatile In addition modernizing refineries will
result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-
product although the demand will keep rising
For several years now ship owners have tried to
reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with
slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies
18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
19
Sustainability is becoming ever more significant
in all trades The discussion of climate protection
involves marine traffic as well Due to new
environmental regulations the shipping industry
will face major challenges in the coming years
Increased restrictions that limit the emission of
harmful substances will require the use of
expensive fuels or investment in new filtering
and propulsion technologies Among other things
this will lead to additional cost increases for
container freight30 In 2008 the International
Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits
for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease
of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the
current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In
emission control areas an even stricter limit of
10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to
01 percent by 201531
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
20
Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)
32
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
21
03Opportunities and
Future Markets
22
Economic globalization will continue in the
coming years Adjusted for price the value of the
world wide trade of goods will grow from ten
billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars
in 203033 This development will benefit the port
industry too This industry includes all activities
involved in the value creation process of loading
and unloading goods as well as the transfer of
ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and
2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year
to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will
grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By
2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50
percent within the European Union35
Improving site conditions will become ever more
important for the individual ports for example
increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces
or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks
and train The German government focuses
current investments on the expansion of seaward
access roads as well as effective inland
connections36 Globally the need for investments
in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40
billion Euro a year by 203037
Ports will also
benefit from the growth of marine power
production For example ports will play an
increasingly central role in the value chain of
offshore wind energy There are future
opportunities in the fields of montage transfer
and service38 However ports will have to invest
heavily to be able to expand their capacities
accordingly
The significance of automation and safety
technologies will increase due to the growing
transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on
data that create a network of all actors involved
in the port economy promise additional
efficiency To guarantee international
competitiveness the cooperation between
individual ports might become increasingly
relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of
the cooperation between ports in Northern
Germany to improve the port location Germany39
Opportunities and Future Markets
23Opportunities and Future Markets
By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year
40
24
The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the
marine economy It connects ports
transportation methods and companies and
guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and
people The development of the oceans as a
source of food natural resources and energy
increases the need for an expansion of offshore
infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms
at ever greater distances to the shore require
new foundations and basic structures Innovative
technological solutions can significantly
contribute to a more cost efficient operation of
such plants The demand for specialists to
transport and mount materials and components
on site will grow The market for offshore supply
ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in
2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is
an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage
of goods natural resources and energy on
specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring
great logistic advantages for loading and
unloading procedures42 The expansion of an
underwater infrastructure for power cables will
be important to the energy transport particularly
to the transport of renewable energies Within
the next ten years the number of underwater
high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of
30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater
power cable will connect Norway and Germany
helping to level green power fluctuations
Opportunities and challenges in the area of
marine economy boost numerous technological
developments Maritime technologies are a
separate future market within the area of marine
economy They are particularly important to the
fields of ship technology energy mining the
mining of natural resources and the expansion
of maritime infrastructure Additional applications
are in the areas of measurement environment
and security technology Intelligent and
autonomous systems that can operate in great
depths are highly significant44 The Canadian
start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean
Institute for Marine Science and Technology and
the British company Seabed Resources want to
use highly modern robots to mine natural
resources in the deep sea
Opportunities and Future Markets
robust
25Opportunities and Future Markets
Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45
intelligent
sustainable
autonomous
26
In the middle and long term the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks
after several boats at the same time To make
unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well because todayrsquos engine technology
requires far too much maintenance46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining maritime energy production and more47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods but
also alternative propulsion methods Liquid
natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant
in the future The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship The ship is supposed to
start operating in 201548 By 2030 international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel
methanol shore power and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport Hybrid solutions however might
prevail in the long term at least New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
16
The competition for the economic usage of
maritime space and coastal regions will intensify
For example offshore wind park operators
compete with fisheries for space neighboring
states in the Arctic fiercely compete for
resources at least beyond the 200 mile zone
and cruise ship companies fight for the best
berths and mooring times in the most attractive
port cities To the extent that the oceans become
more and more attractive because new
technologies make the oceans a more efficient
and comprehensive fountain of food resources
and energy countries and corporations will
increase their investments and activities to
develop and access this potential Considering
the continuous population growth and the
increasing shortages of resources in a worst
case scenario unresolved or overlapping
territorial claims could turn violent and provoke
political conflict For example China and other
neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the
Philippines lay claim on the South China Sea
where experts assume large sources of raw
materials
Marine economy particularly ocean trade is
strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world
economy The world wide financial crisis had led
to a significantly reduced demand for shipping
space as well as cancellations and decreased
orders for new ships Due to overcapacities in the
container ship building industry particularly in
Asia the German ship building industry had to
restructure and refocus building offshore-
oriented specialty ships instead of container
ships26 The question is how long will it take for
suppliers from emerging countries particularly
from China to enter the market for tailor-made
ships and offer them at lower costs There are
dramatic changes in the balance of the world
economy Developing and emerging countries will
provide an ever larger portion of the workforce
capital technology and trade volume By 2050
experts predict growth beyond average for the
BRIC states Their share of the global social
product will grow significantly
Intensifying Competitionand New Challenges
17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets
27
As soon as ten years from now China might
replace the United States as the largest national
economy in the world Today China is already
the largest container market In addition Chinese
banks could push into the market of ship
financing while German banks reduced their
involvement in this sector following the financial
crises In the future German ship owners
interested in investing might be forced to seek
financing from Chinese banks This could have a
negative impact on the German supplier industry
The competition between individual ports will
also intensify in the future Because container
ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer
central ports will handle an ever growing portion
of the sea trade For example within the next
few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its
container business to the JadeWeser port in
Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that
is independent of the tides and therefore
attractive to giant freighters28 International
relations change too While Hamburg used to
be among the largest container ports in the
world today it ranks only in 16th place By now
six of the top ten ports in the world are in
China29
Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges
to maritime traffic Although we seem to have
skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the
mining maximum by the expansion and
increased economic viability of unconventional oil
mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil
boom likely only defers the problem to a later
time
There are no clear predictions since a decrease
of conventional oil mining will result in higher
investments in research and development of
unconventional oil resources The danger
remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will
increase continuously or at the very least be
volatile In addition modernizing refineries will
result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-
product although the demand will keep rising
For several years now ship owners have tried to
reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with
slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies
18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
19
Sustainability is becoming ever more significant
in all trades The discussion of climate protection
involves marine traffic as well Due to new
environmental regulations the shipping industry
will face major challenges in the coming years
Increased restrictions that limit the emission of
harmful substances will require the use of
expensive fuels or investment in new filtering
and propulsion technologies Among other things
this will lead to additional cost increases for
container freight30 In 2008 the International
Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits
for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease
of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the
current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In
emission control areas an even stricter limit of
10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to
01 percent by 201531
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
20
Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)
32
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
21
03Opportunities and
Future Markets
22
Economic globalization will continue in the
coming years Adjusted for price the value of the
world wide trade of goods will grow from ten
billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars
in 203033 This development will benefit the port
industry too This industry includes all activities
involved in the value creation process of loading
and unloading goods as well as the transfer of
ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and
2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year
to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will
grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By
2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50
percent within the European Union35
Improving site conditions will become ever more
important for the individual ports for example
increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces
or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks
and train The German government focuses
current investments on the expansion of seaward
access roads as well as effective inland
connections36 Globally the need for investments
in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40
billion Euro a year by 203037
Ports will also
benefit from the growth of marine power
production For example ports will play an
increasingly central role in the value chain of
offshore wind energy There are future
opportunities in the fields of montage transfer
and service38 However ports will have to invest
heavily to be able to expand their capacities
accordingly
The significance of automation and safety
technologies will increase due to the growing
transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on
data that create a network of all actors involved
in the port economy promise additional
efficiency To guarantee international
competitiveness the cooperation between
individual ports might become increasingly
relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of
the cooperation between ports in Northern
Germany to improve the port location Germany39
Opportunities and Future Markets
23Opportunities and Future Markets
By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year
40
24
The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the
marine economy It connects ports
transportation methods and companies and
guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and
people The development of the oceans as a
source of food natural resources and energy
increases the need for an expansion of offshore
infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms
at ever greater distances to the shore require
new foundations and basic structures Innovative
technological solutions can significantly
contribute to a more cost efficient operation of
such plants The demand for specialists to
transport and mount materials and components
on site will grow The market for offshore supply
ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in
2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is
an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage
of goods natural resources and energy on
specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring
great logistic advantages for loading and
unloading procedures42 The expansion of an
underwater infrastructure for power cables will
be important to the energy transport particularly
to the transport of renewable energies Within
the next ten years the number of underwater
high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of
30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater
power cable will connect Norway and Germany
helping to level green power fluctuations
Opportunities and challenges in the area of
marine economy boost numerous technological
developments Maritime technologies are a
separate future market within the area of marine
economy They are particularly important to the
fields of ship technology energy mining the
mining of natural resources and the expansion
of maritime infrastructure Additional applications
are in the areas of measurement environment
and security technology Intelligent and
autonomous systems that can operate in great
depths are highly significant44 The Canadian
start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean
Institute for Marine Science and Technology and
the British company Seabed Resources want to
use highly modern robots to mine natural
resources in the deep sea
Opportunities and Future Markets
robust
25Opportunities and Future Markets
Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45
intelligent
sustainable
autonomous
26
In the middle and long term the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks
after several boats at the same time To make
unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well because todayrsquos engine technology
requires far too much maintenance46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining maritime energy production and more47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods but
also alternative propulsion methods Liquid
natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant
in the future The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship The ship is supposed to
start operating in 201548 By 2030 international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel
methanol shore power and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport Hybrid solutions however might
prevail in the long term at least New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets
27
As soon as ten years from now China might
replace the United States as the largest national
economy in the world Today China is already
the largest container market In addition Chinese
banks could push into the market of ship
financing while German banks reduced their
involvement in this sector following the financial
crises In the future German ship owners
interested in investing might be forced to seek
financing from Chinese banks This could have a
negative impact on the German supplier industry
The competition between individual ports will
also intensify in the future Because container
ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer
central ports will handle an ever growing portion
of the sea trade For example within the next
few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its
container business to the JadeWeser port in
Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that
is independent of the tides and therefore
attractive to giant freighters28 International
relations change too While Hamburg used to
be among the largest container ports in the
world today it ranks only in 16th place By now
six of the top ten ports in the world are in
China29
Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges
to maritime traffic Although we seem to have
skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the
mining maximum by the expansion and
increased economic viability of unconventional oil
mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil
boom likely only defers the problem to a later
time
There are no clear predictions since a decrease
of conventional oil mining will result in higher
investments in research and development of
unconventional oil resources The danger
remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will
increase continuously or at the very least be
volatile In addition modernizing refineries will
result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-
product although the demand will keep rising
For several years now ship owners have tried to
reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with
slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies
18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
19
Sustainability is becoming ever more significant
in all trades The discussion of climate protection
involves marine traffic as well Due to new
environmental regulations the shipping industry
will face major challenges in the coming years
Increased restrictions that limit the emission of
harmful substances will require the use of
expensive fuels or investment in new filtering
and propulsion technologies Among other things
this will lead to additional cost increases for
container freight30 In 2008 the International
Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits
for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease
of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the
current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In
emission control areas an even stricter limit of
10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to
01 percent by 201531
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
20
Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)
32
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
21
03Opportunities and
Future Markets
22
Economic globalization will continue in the
coming years Adjusted for price the value of the
world wide trade of goods will grow from ten
billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars
in 203033 This development will benefit the port
industry too This industry includes all activities
involved in the value creation process of loading
and unloading goods as well as the transfer of
ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and
2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year
to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will
grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By
2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50
percent within the European Union35
Improving site conditions will become ever more
important for the individual ports for example
increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces
or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks
and train The German government focuses
current investments on the expansion of seaward
access roads as well as effective inland
connections36 Globally the need for investments
in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40
billion Euro a year by 203037
Ports will also
benefit from the growth of marine power
production For example ports will play an
increasingly central role in the value chain of
offshore wind energy There are future
opportunities in the fields of montage transfer
and service38 However ports will have to invest
heavily to be able to expand their capacities
accordingly
The significance of automation and safety
technologies will increase due to the growing
transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on
data that create a network of all actors involved
in the port economy promise additional
efficiency To guarantee international
competitiveness the cooperation between
individual ports might become increasingly
relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of
the cooperation between ports in Northern
Germany to improve the port location Germany39
Opportunities and Future Markets
23Opportunities and Future Markets
By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year
40
24
The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the
marine economy It connects ports
transportation methods and companies and
guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and
people The development of the oceans as a
source of food natural resources and energy
increases the need for an expansion of offshore
infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms
at ever greater distances to the shore require
new foundations and basic structures Innovative
technological solutions can significantly
contribute to a more cost efficient operation of
such plants The demand for specialists to
transport and mount materials and components
on site will grow The market for offshore supply
ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in
2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is
an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage
of goods natural resources and energy on
specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring
great logistic advantages for loading and
unloading procedures42 The expansion of an
underwater infrastructure for power cables will
be important to the energy transport particularly
to the transport of renewable energies Within
the next ten years the number of underwater
high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of
30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater
power cable will connect Norway and Germany
helping to level green power fluctuations
Opportunities and challenges in the area of
marine economy boost numerous technological
developments Maritime technologies are a
separate future market within the area of marine
economy They are particularly important to the
fields of ship technology energy mining the
mining of natural resources and the expansion
of maritime infrastructure Additional applications
are in the areas of measurement environment
and security technology Intelligent and
autonomous systems that can operate in great
depths are highly significant44 The Canadian
start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean
Institute for Marine Science and Technology and
the British company Seabed Resources want to
use highly modern robots to mine natural
resources in the deep sea
Opportunities and Future Markets
robust
25Opportunities and Future Markets
Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45
intelligent
sustainable
autonomous
26
In the middle and long term the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks
after several boats at the same time To make
unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well because todayrsquos engine technology
requires far too much maintenance46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining maritime energy production and more47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods but
also alternative propulsion methods Liquid
natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant
in the future The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship The ship is supposed to
start operating in 201548 By 2030 international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel
methanol shore power and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport Hybrid solutions however might
prevail in the long term at least New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
As soon as ten years from now China might
replace the United States as the largest national
economy in the world Today China is already
the largest container market In addition Chinese
banks could push into the market of ship
financing while German banks reduced their
involvement in this sector following the financial
crises In the future German ship owners
interested in investing might be forced to seek
financing from Chinese banks This could have a
negative impact on the German supplier industry
The competition between individual ports will
also intensify in the future Because container
ships tend to become ever larger ever fewer
central ports will handle an ever growing portion
of the sea trade For example within the next
few years Hamburg could lose a portion of its
container business to the JadeWeser port in
Wilhelmshaven which offers a larger depth that
is independent of the tides and therefore
attractive to giant freighters28 International
relations change too While Hamburg used to
be among the largest container ports in the
world today it ranks only in 16th place By now
six of the top ten ports in the world are in
China29
Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges
to maritime traffic Although we seem to have
skirted the issue of lsquoPeak Oilrsquo ie reaching the
mining maximum by the expansion and
increased economic viability of unconventional oil
mining methods (lsquofrackingrsquo) fact is the new oil
boom likely only defers the problem to a later
time
There are no clear predictions since a decrease
of conventional oil mining will result in higher
investments in research and development of
unconventional oil resources The danger
remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will
increase continuously or at the very least be
volatile In addition modernizing refineries will
result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-
product although the demand will keep rising
For several years now ship owners have tried to
reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with
slower speeds ie with slow-steaming-strategies
18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
19
Sustainability is becoming ever more significant
in all trades The discussion of climate protection
involves marine traffic as well Due to new
environmental regulations the shipping industry
will face major challenges in the coming years
Increased restrictions that limit the emission of
harmful substances will require the use of
expensive fuels or investment in new filtering
and propulsion technologies Among other things
this will lead to additional cost increases for
container freight30 In 2008 the International
Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits
for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease
of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the
current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In
emission control areas an even stricter limit of
10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to
01 percent by 201531
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
20
Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)
32
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
21
03Opportunities and
Future Markets
22
Economic globalization will continue in the
coming years Adjusted for price the value of the
world wide trade of goods will grow from ten
billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars
in 203033 This development will benefit the port
industry too This industry includes all activities
involved in the value creation process of loading
and unloading goods as well as the transfer of
ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and
2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year
to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will
grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By
2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50
percent within the European Union35
Improving site conditions will become ever more
important for the individual ports for example
increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces
or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks
and train The German government focuses
current investments on the expansion of seaward
access roads as well as effective inland
connections36 Globally the need for investments
in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40
billion Euro a year by 203037
Ports will also
benefit from the growth of marine power
production For example ports will play an
increasingly central role in the value chain of
offshore wind energy There are future
opportunities in the fields of montage transfer
and service38 However ports will have to invest
heavily to be able to expand their capacities
accordingly
The significance of automation and safety
technologies will increase due to the growing
transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on
data that create a network of all actors involved
in the port economy promise additional
efficiency To guarantee international
competitiveness the cooperation between
individual ports might become increasingly
relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of
the cooperation between ports in Northern
Germany to improve the port location Germany39
Opportunities and Future Markets
23Opportunities and Future Markets
By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year
40
24
The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the
marine economy It connects ports
transportation methods and companies and
guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and
people The development of the oceans as a
source of food natural resources and energy
increases the need for an expansion of offshore
infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms
at ever greater distances to the shore require
new foundations and basic structures Innovative
technological solutions can significantly
contribute to a more cost efficient operation of
such plants The demand for specialists to
transport and mount materials and components
on site will grow The market for offshore supply
ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in
2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is
an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage
of goods natural resources and energy on
specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring
great logistic advantages for loading and
unloading procedures42 The expansion of an
underwater infrastructure for power cables will
be important to the energy transport particularly
to the transport of renewable energies Within
the next ten years the number of underwater
high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of
30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater
power cable will connect Norway and Germany
helping to level green power fluctuations
Opportunities and challenges in the area of
marine economy boost numerous technological
developments Maritime technologies are a
separate future market within the area of marine
economy They are particularly important to the
fields of ship technology energy mining the
mining of natural resources and the expansion
of maritime infrastructure Additional applications
are in the areas of measurement environment
and security technology Intelligent and
autonomous systems that can operate in great
depths are highly significant44 The Canadian
start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean
Institute for Marine Science and Technology and
the British company Seabed Resources want to
use highly modern robots to mine natural
resources in the deep sea
Opportunities and Future Markets
robust
25Opportunities and Future Markets
Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45
intelligent
sustainable
autonomous
26
In the middle and long term the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks
after several boats at the same time To make
unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well because todayrsquos engine technology
requires far too much maintenance46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining maritime energy production and more47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods but
also alternative propulsion methods Liquid
natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant
in the future The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship The ship is supposed to
start operating in 201548 By 2030 international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel
methanol shore power and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport Hybrid solutions however might
prevail in the long term at least New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
19
Sustainability is becoming ever more significant
in all trades The discussion of climate protection
involves marine traffic as well Due to new
environmental regulations the shipping industry
will face major challenges in the coming years
Increased restrictions that limit the emission of
harmful substances will require the use of
expensive fuels or investment in new filtering
and propulsion technologies Among other things
this will lead to additional cost increases for
container freight30 In 2008 the International
Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits
for sulfur and nitric oxide prescribing a decrease
of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the
current 35 percent to 05 percent by 2020 In
emission control areas an even stricter limit of
10 percent is in effect which is to be reduced to
01 percent by 201531
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
20
Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)
32
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
21
03Opportunities and
Future Markets
22
Economic globalization will continue in the
coming years Adjusted for price the value of the
world wide trade of goods will grow from ten
billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars
in 203033 This development will benefit the port
industry too This industry includes all activities
involved in the value creation process of loading
and unloading goods as well as the transfer of
ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and
2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year
to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will
grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By
2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50
percent within the European Union35
Improving site conditions will become ever more
important for the individual ports for example
increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces
or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks
and train The German government focuses
current investments on the expansion of seaward
access roads as well as effective inland
connections36 Globally the need for investments
in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40
billion Euro a year by 203037
Ports will also
benefit from the growth of marine power
production For example ports will play an
increasingly central role in the value chain of
offshore wind energy There are future
opportunities in the fields of montage transfer
and service38 However ports will have to invest
heavily to be able to expand their capacities
accordingly
The significance of automation and safety
technologies will increase due to the growing
transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on
data that create a network of all actors involved
in the port economy promise additional
efficiency To guarantee international
competitiveness the cooperation between
individual ports might become increasingly
relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of
the cooperation between ports in Northern
Germany to improve the port location Germany39
Opportunities and Future Markets
23Opportunities and Future Markets
By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year
40
24
The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the
marine economy It connects ports
transportation methods and companies and
guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and
people The development of the oceans as a
source of food natural resources and energy
increases the need for an expansion of offshore
infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms
at ever greater distances to the shore require
new foundations and basic structures Innovative
technological solutions can significantly
contribute to a more cost efficient operation of
such plants The demand for specialists to
transport and mount materials and components
on site will grow The market for offshore supply
ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in
2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is
an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage
of goods natural resources and energy on
specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring
great logistic advantages for loading and
unloading procedures42 The expansion of an
underwater infrastructure for power cables will
be important to the energy transport particularly
to the transport of renewable energies Within
the next ten years the number of underwater
high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of
30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater
power cable will connect Norway and Germany
helping to level green power fluctuations
Opportunities and challenges in the area of
marine economy boost numerous technological
developments Maritime technologies are a
separate future market within the area of marine
economy They are particularly important to the
fields of ship technology energy mining the
mining of natural resources and the expansion
of maritime infrastructure Additional applications
are in the areas of measurement environment
and security technology Intelligent and
autonomous systems that can operate in great
depths are highly significant44 The Canadian
start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean
Institute for Marine Science and Technology and
the British company Seabed Resources want to
use highly modern robots to mine natural
resources in the deep sea
Opportunities and Future Markets
robust
25Opportunities and Future Markets
Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45
intelligent
sustainable
autonomous
26
In the middle and long term the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks
after several boats at the same time To make
unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well because todayrsquos engine technology
requires far too much maintenance46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining maritime energy production and more47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods but
also alternative propulsion methods Liquid
natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant
in the future The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship The ship is supposed to
start operating in 201548 By 2030 international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel
methanol shore power and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport Hybrid solutions however might
prevail in the long term at least New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
20
Starting in 20202025 ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG)
32
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
21
03Opportunities and
Future Markets
22
Economic globalization will continue in the
coming years Adjusted for price the value of the
world wide trade of goods will grow from ten
billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars
in 203033 This development will benefit the port
industry too This industry includes all activities
involved in the value creation process of loading
and unloading goods as well as the transfer of
ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and
2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year
to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will
grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By
2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50
percent within the European Union35
Improving site conditions will become ever more
important for the individual ports for example
increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces
or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks
and train The German government focuses
current investments on the expansion of seaward
access roads as well as effective inland
connections36 Globally the need for investments
in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40
billion Euro a year by 203037
Ports will also
benefit from the growth of marine power
production For example ports will play an
increasingly central role in the value chain of
offshore wind energy There are future
opportunities in the fields of montage transfer
and service38 However ports will have to invest
heavily to be able to expand their capacities
accordingly
The significance of automation and safety
technologies will increase due to the growing
transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on
data that create a network of all actors involved
in the port economy promise additional
efficiency To guarantee international
competitiveness the cooperation between
individual ports might become increasingly
relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of
the cooperation between ports in Northern
Germany to improve the port location Germany39
Opportunities and Future Markets
23Opportunities and Future Markets
By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year
40
24
The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the
marine economy It connects ports
transportation methods and companies and
guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and
people The development of the oceans as a
source of food natural resources and energy
increases the need for an expansion of offshore
infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms
at ever greater distances to the shore require
new foundations and basic structures Innovative
technological solutions can significantly
contribute to a more cost efficient operation of
such plants The demand for specialists to
transport and mount materials and components
on site will grow The market for offshore supply
ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in
2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is
an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage
of goods natural resources and energy on
specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring
great logistic advantages for loading and
unloading procedures42 The expansion of an
underwater infrastructure for power cables will
be important to the energy transport particularly
to the transport of renewable energies Within
the next ten years the number of underwater
high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of
30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater
power cable will connect Norway and Germany
helping to level green power fluctuations
Opportunities and challenges in the area of
marine economy boost numerous technological
developments Maritime technologies are a
separate future market within the area of marine
economy They are particularly important to the
fields of ship technology energy mining the
mining of natural resources and the expansion
of maritime infrastructure Additional applications
are in the areas of measurement environment
and security technology Intelligent and
autonomous systems that can operate in great
depths are highly significant44 The Canadian
start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean
Institute for Marine Science and Technology and
the British company Seabed Resources want to
use highly modern robots to mine natural
resources in the deep sea
Opportunities and Future Markets
robust
25Opportunities and Future Markets
Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45
intelligent
sustainable
autonomous
26
In the middle and long term the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks
after several boats at the same time To make
unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well because todayrsquos engine technology
requires far too much maintenance46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining maritime energy production and more47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods but
also alternative propulsion methods Liquid
natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant
in the future The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship The ship is supposed to
start operating in 201548 By 2030 international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel
methanol shore power and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport Hybrid solutions however might
prevail in the long term at least New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
21
03Opportunities and
Future Markets
22
Economic globalization will continue in the
coming years Adjusted for price the value of the
world wide trade of goods will grow from ten
billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars
in 203033 This development will benefit the port
industry too This industry includes all activities
involved in the value creation process of loading
and unloading goods as well as the transfer of
ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and
2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year
to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will
grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By
2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50
percent within the European Union35
Improving site conditions will become ever more
important for the individual ports for example
increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces
or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks
and train The German government focuses
current investments on the expansion of seaward
access roads as well as effective inland
connections36 Globally the need for investments
in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40
billion Euro a year by 203037
Ports will also
benefit from the growth of marine power
production For example ports will play an
increasingly central role in the value chain of
offshore wind energy There are future
opportunities in the fields of montage transfer
and service38 However ports will have to invest
heavily to be able to expand their capacities
accordingly
The significance of automation and safety
technologies will increase due to the growing
transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on
data that create a network of all actors involved
in the port economy promise additional
efficiency To guarantee international
competitiveness the cooperation between
individual ports might become increasingly
relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of
the cooperation between ports in Northern
Germany to improve the port location Germany39
Opportunities and Future Markets
23Opportunities and Future Markets
By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year
40
24
The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the
marine economy It connects ports
transportation methods and companies and
guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and
people The development of the oceans as a
source of food natural resources and energy
increases the need for an expansion of offshore
infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms
at ever greater distances to the shore require
new foundations and basic structures Innovative
technological solutions can significantly
contribute to a more cost efficient operation of
such plants The demand for specialists to
transport and mount materials and components
on site will grow The market for offshore supply
ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in
2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is
an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage
of goods natural resources and energy on
specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring
great logistic advantages for loading and
unloading procedures42 The expansion of an
underwater infrastructure for power cables will
be important to the energy transport particularly
to the transport of renewable energies Within
the next ten years the number of underwater
high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of
30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater
power cable will connect Norway and Germany
helping to level green power fluctuations
Opportunities and challenges in the area of
marine economy boost numerous technological
developments Maritime technologies are a
separate future market within the area of marine
economy They are particularly important to the
fields of ship technology energy mining the
mining of natural resources and the expansion
of maritime infrastructure Additional applications
are in the areas of measurement environment
and security technology Intelligent and
autonomous systems that can operate in great
depths are highly significant44 The Canadian
start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean
Institute for Marine Science and Technology and
the British company Seabed Resources want to
use highly modern robots to mine natural
resources in the deep sea
Opportunities and Future Markets
robust
25Opportunities and Future Markets
Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45
intelligent
sustainable
autonomous
26
In the middle and long term the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks
after several boats at the same time To make
unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well because todayrsquos engine technology
requires far too much maintenance46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining maritime energy production and more47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods but
also alternative propulsion methods Liquid
natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant
in the future The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship The ship is supposed to
start operating in 201548 By 2030 international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel
methanol shore power and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport Hybrid solutions however might
prevail in the long term at least New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
22
Economic globalization will continue in the
coming years Adjusted for price the value of the
world wide trade of goods will grow from ten
billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars
in 203033 This development will benefit the port
industry too This industry includes all activities
involved in the value creation process of loading
and unloading goods as well as the transfer of
ship and ferry passengers Between 2010 and
2030 the volume will rise by 28 percent a year
to a total of 468 tons Ports at the North Sea will
grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea34 By
2030 the freight volume in ports will grow by 50
percent within the European Union35
Improving site conditions will become ever more
important for the individual ports for example
increased efficiency expanded loading surfaces
or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks
and train The German government focuses
current investments on the expansion of seaward
access roads as well as effective inland
connections36 Globally the need for investments
in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40
billion Euro a year by 203037
Ports will also
benefit from the growth of marine power
production For example ports will play an
increasingly central role in the value chain of
offshore wind energy There are future
opportunities in the fields of montage transfer
and service38 However ports will have to invest
heavily to be able to expand their capacities
accordingly
The significance of automation and safety
technologies will increase due to the growing
transfer volume Intelligent platforms based on
data that create a network of all actors involved
in the port economy promise additional
efficiency To guarantee international
competitiveness the cooperation between
individual ports might become increasingly
relevant In 2013 the WWF offered a study of
the cooperation between ports in Northern
Germany to improve the port location Germany39
Opportunities and Future Markets
23Opportunities and Future Markets
By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year
40
24
The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the
marine economy It connects ports
transportation methods and companies and
guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and
people The development of the oceans as a
source of food natural resources and energy
increases the need for an expansion of offshore
infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms
at ever greater distances to the shore require
new foundations and basic structures Innovative
technological solutions can significantly
contribute to a more cost efficient operation of
such plants The demand for specialists to
transport and mount materials and components
on site will grow The market for offshore supply
ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in
2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is
an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage
of goods natural resources and energy on
specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring
great logistic advantages for loading and
unloading procedures42 The expansion of an
underwater infrastructure for power cables will
be important to the energy transport particularly
to the transport of renewable energies Within
the next ten years the number of underwater
high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of
30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater
power cable will connect Norway and Germany
helping to level green power fluctuations
Opportunities and challenges in the area of
marine economy boost numerous technological
developments Maritime technologies are a
separate future market within the area of marine
economy They are particularly important to the
fields of ship technology energy mining the
mining of natural resources and the expansion
of maritime infrastructure Additional applications
are in the areas of measurement environment
and security technology Intelligent and
autonomous systems that can operate in great
depths are highly significant44 The Canadian
start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean
Institute for Marine Science and Technology and
the British company Seabed Resources want to
use highly modern robots to mine natural
resources in the deep sea
Opportunities and Future Markets
robust
25Opportunities and Future Markets
Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45
intelligent
sustainable
autonomous
26
In the middle and long term the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks
after several boats at the same time To make
unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well because todayrsquos engine technology
requires far too much maintenance46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining maritime energy production and more47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods but
also alternative propulsion methods Liquid
natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant
in the future The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship The ship is supposed to
start operating in 201548 By 2030 international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel
methanol shore power and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport Hybrid solutions however might
prevail in the long term at least New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
23Opportunities and Future Markets
By the year 2019 the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year the market for AUVs(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year
40
24
The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the
marine economy It connects ports
transportation methods and companies and
guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and
people The development of the oceans as a
source of food natural resources and energy
increases the need for an expansion of offshore
infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms
at ever greater distances to the shore require
new foundations and basic structures Innovative
technological solutions can significantly
contribute to a more cost efficient operation of
such plants The demand for specialists to
transport and mount materials and components
on site will grow The market for offshore supply
ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in
2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is
an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage
of goods natural resources and energy on
specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring
great logistic advantages for loading and
unloading procedures42 The expansion of an
underwater infrastructure for power cables will
be important to the energy transport particularly
to the transport of renewable energies Within
the next ten years the number of underwater
high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of
30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater
power cable will connect Norway and Germany
helping to level green power fluctuations
Opportunities and challenges in the area of
marine economy boost numerous technological
developments Maritime technologies are a
separate future market within the area of marine
economy They are particularly important to the
fields of ship technology energy mining the
mining of natural resources and the expansion
of maritime infrastructure Additional applications
are in the areas of measurement environment
and security technology Intelligent and
autonomous systems that can operate in great
depths are highly significant44 The Canadian
start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean
Institute for Marine Science and Technology and
the British company Seabed Resources want to
use highly modern robots to mine natural
resources in the deep sea
Opportunities and Future Markets
robust
25Opportunities and Future Markets
Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45
intelligent
sustainable
autonomous
26
In the middle and long term the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks
after several boats at the same time To make
unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well because todayrsquos engine technology
requires far too much maintenance46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining maritime energy production and more47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods but
also alternative propulsion methods Liquid
natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant
in the future The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship The ship is supposed to
start operating in 201548 By 2030 international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel
methanol shore power and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport Hybrid solutions however might
prevail in the long term at least New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
24
The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the
marine economy It connects ports
transportation methods and companies and
guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and
people The development of the oceans as a
source of food natural resources and energy
increases the need for an expansion of offshore
infrastructures Ever larger plants and platforms
at ever greater distances to the shore require
new foundations and basic structures Innovative
technological solutions can significantly
contribute to a more cost efficient operation of
such plants The demand for specialists to
transport and mount materials and components
on site will grow The market for offshore supply
ships will grow from 693 billion US dollars in
2013 to 912 billion US dollars in 2018 which is
an increase of 50 percent41 The offshore storage
of goods natural resources and energy on
specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring
great logistic advantages for loading and
unloading procedures42 The expansion of an
underwater infrastructure for power cables will
be important to the energy transport particularly
to the transport of renewable energies Within
the next ten years the number of underwater
high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of
30043 As early as 2018 the longest underwater
power cable will connect Norway and Germany
helping to level green power fluctuations
Opportunities and challenges in the area of
marine economy boost numerous technological
developments Maritime technologies are a
separate future market within the area of marine
economy They are particularly important to the
fields of ship technology energy mining the
mining of natural resources and the expansion
of maritime infrastructure Additional applications
are in the areas of measurement environment
and security technology Intelligent and
autonomous systems that can operate in great
depths are highly significant44 The Canadian
start-up Nautilus Minerals the South-Korean
Institute for Marine Science and Technology and
the British company Seabed Resources want to
use highly modern robots to mine natural
resources in the deep sea
Opportunities and Future Markets
robust
25Opportunities and Future Markets
Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45
intelligent
sustainable
autonomous
26
In the middle and long term the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks
after several boats at the same time To make
unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well because todayrsquos engine technology
requires far too much maintenance46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining maritime energy production and more47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods but
also alternative propulsion methods Liquid
natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant
in the future The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship The ship is supposed to
start operating in 201548 By 2030 international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel
methanol shore power and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport Hybrid solutions however might
prevail in the long term at least New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
robust
25Opportunities and Future Markets
Four qualities define the marine technology of the future45
intelligent
sustainable
autonomous
26
In the middle and long term the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks
after several boats at the same time To make
unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well because todayrsquos engine technology
requires far too much maintenance46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining maritime energy production and more47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods but
also alternative propulsion methods Liquid
natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant
in the future The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship The ship is supposed to
start operating in 201548 By 2030 international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel
methanol shore power and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport Hybrid solutions however might
prevail in the long term at least New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
26
In the middle and long term the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore who looks
after several boats at the same time To make
unmanned shipping possible new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well because todayrsquos engine technology
requires far too much maintenance46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining maritime energy production and more47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods but
also alternative propulsion methods Liquid
natural gas ndash LNG ndash will become more significant
in the future The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship The ship is supposed to
start operating in 201548 By 2030 international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry49 The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures Bio gas bio diesel
methanol shore power and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport Hybrid solutions however might
prevail in the long term at least New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
27
Ergonomics lightweight materials and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use SkySails for example is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions51 The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel52 The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit54
In addition to Green Shipping the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy but also as energy
reservoir Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA) a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body which during the discharge
operation is refilled with water via a turbine
which operates a generator55 The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent A pilot plant
is in construction56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
Aquaculture too is beginning to focus on
sustainability Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project ldquoIntegrated Multitrophic
Aquaculturerdquo examining how different fish
muscles and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications57
In the coming years the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries Here too marine economy can
offer an important future market Even today
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean Between 2013 and 2018 the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 153
billion US dollars58 In the future desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection Embankment expansions and
enforcements land reclamation and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time have
begun to develop new strategies ndash lsquoaqua-
architecturersquo for example Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how in the
future people can live with the water Europersquos
first drifting apartment complex de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
WaterstudioNL is being built near Den Haag
consisting of 60 luxury apartments59 Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas At the same
time these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
29
Worldwide architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers DeltaSync for example developed one
such concept lsquoBlue Revolutionrsquo envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel60 The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the lsquoFloating City Projectrsquo61
With the expansion of the offshore industry the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces The Prelude which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015 will be
the worldrsquos biggest ship with a length of 488
meters Shellrsquos swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining liquidation
storage and transport of natural gas and will
provide room for 350 crew62
Welcome The 21st century is the era of marine
economy
Opportunities and Future Markets
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
1 UNPD (2013) World Population Prospects The
2012 Revision Link Publication Date 2013 Date of
Download 17062013
2 University of Washington (2014) World population
to keep growing this century hit 11 billion by 2100
Link Publication Date 18092014 Date of
Download 19092014
3 EIA (2014) International Energy Outlook 2013
With Projections to 2040 Washington DC (Link)
4 United Nations University - EHS und Buumlndnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014) WeltRisikoBericht 2014
BonnBerlin (Link)
5 Europaumlische Kommission (2014) Europaumlischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung Link Publication Date 17052013
Date of Download 13102014
6 KPMG (2013) Future State 2030 The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7 HSBC (2014) Global exports to gather pace Link
Publication Date 16092014 Date of Download
16092014
816 Lloyds Register et al (2013) Global Marine
Trends 2030 LondonHampshireGlasgow
9 Det Norske Veritas (2012) Shipping 2020 Oslo
(Link)
10 Transparency Market Research (2014) Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 19513
billion in 2019 Link Publication Date 12062014
Date of Download 18062014
1115 Maribus (2014) World ocean review - Teil 3
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken
Hamburg (Link)
12 BDI (2014) Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus fuumlr
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe
Berlin (Link)
13 ExxonMobil (2014) 2014 The Outlook for Energy
A view to 2040 Irving (Link)
14 Nautilus Minerals (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
17 Spiegel Online (2013) Testbohrung Japan foumlrdert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee Link Publication Date
12032013 Date of Download 14102014
18 GlobalData (2014) Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020 says
GlobalData Link Publication Date 16092014 Date
of Download 10102014
19 Minesto (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
14102014
20 Roland Berger (2013) Offshore Wind Toward
2020 On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21 Europaumlische Kommission (2012) Blaues
Wachstum Chancen fuumlr nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum Bruumlssel (Link)
22 BREA (2014) The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013 Exton (Link)
23 Cruise Market Watch (2014) Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
24 Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013) Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead Dynamic Prospects for Ports Link
Publication Date 2013 Date of Download
16092014
25 Deep Ocean Technology (2014) An Underwater
Hotel Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 15092014
References
30
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
263638 Deutscher Bundestag (2013) Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung uumlber die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland Berlin (Link)
27 PwC (2014) Vernetzt auf hoher See ndash Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten Link Publication
Date 03072014 Date of Download 15092014
28 Schroumlder Daniela (2013) Das Tor zur Provinz
Link Publication Date 13102013 Date of
Download 16102014
29 n-tvde (2014) Asiens Haumlfen sind der Maszligstab
Link Publication Date 18082014 Date of
Download 16102014
30 Andersen Ole (2014) Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million Link Publication
Date 09072014 Date of Download 11092014
31 IMO (2014) International Maritime Organization ndash
Regulation 14 Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
17102014
3249 Wurster R et al (2014) LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff fuumlr den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen Muumlnchen Ottobrunn
Heidelberg Berlin (Link)
33 PwC (2014) What are the prospects for global
trade growth Global Economy Watch October 2014
(Link)
34 MWP GmbH et al (2013)
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030 Hamburg
(Link)
35 Europaumlische Kommission (2013) Europes Seaports
2030 Challenges Ahead Link Publication Date
23052013 Date of Download 20102014
37 OECD (2011) Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030 Paris (Link)
39 WWF Deutschland (2013) Szenario fuumlr eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs Berlin (Link)
40 Markets and Markets (2014) Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product Application
Region amp Country - Global Trends amp Forecasts to
2014 - 2019 Link Publication Date 2014 Date of
Download 20102014
41 Markets and Markets (2013) Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type amp by Geography - Global
Trends amp Forecast to 2018 Link Publication Date
2013 Date of Download 21102014
42 University of Tasmania (2014) Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry
Link Publication Date 27052014 Date of
Download 10092014
43 Navigant Research (2013) Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023 Link Publication Date 25112013 Date of
Download 27112013
44 Wynn Russell B et al (2014) Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Their past present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience in Marine Geology Volume 352 1 June
2014 Pages 451ndash468 (Link)
45 BMWi (2011) Maritime Technologien der naumlchsten
Generation Das Forschungsprogramm fuumlr Schiffbau
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015 Berlin
(Link)
46 Stoller Detlev (2014) Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew uumlbers Meer steuern
Link Publication Date 08042014 Date of
Download 21102014
References
31
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
47 vom Baur Michael (2012) Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities Brussels (Link)
48 VerkehrsRundschau(2014) LNG-Containerschiff
erhaumllt MAN-Motor Link Publication Date
13102014 Date of Download 21102014
50 DNV GL (2014) Alternative Fuels For Shipping
Hoslashvik (Link)
51 SkySails (2014) Powerful ndash unlimited ndash free Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
12092014
52 Maaszlig Stephan (2014) Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren Link Publication Date
12072014 Date of Download 14072014
53 Eco Marine Power (2014) Company Website Link
Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
22102014
54 Mutschler Joumlrg (2014) Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland ndash Nachhaltigkeit als Chance fuumlr
Hochtechnologie Bremen (Link)
55 Hochtief Solutions AG und Fraunhofer Institut fuumlr
Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (2013)
StEnSea - Storing Energy at Sea Link Publication
Date 2013 Date of Download 28102014
56 TU Wien (2014) Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern Link Publication Date 21032014 Date
of Download 28102014
57 IMARE Institut fuumlr Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014) Zentrum fuumlr Aquakulturforschung ndash ZAF
Link Publication Date 2014 Date of Download
28102014
58 Markets and Markets (2014) Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15274 Million By 2018
Link Publication Date 30042014 Date of
Download 30042014
59 Schweighoumlfer Kerstin (2014) Schwimmende
Staumldte Link Publication Date 30032014 Date of
Download 22102014
60 DeltaSync (2012) Blue Revolution Link
Publication Date 2012 Date of Download
22102014
61 Seasteading Institute (2014) The Floating City
Project (Link)
62 Shell (2014) Prelude FLNG Link Publication Date
2014 Date of Download 22102014
References
32
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734
Bernd Hinrichs
Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact
HBFutureManagementGroupcom+49 - (0) 173 ndash 34 69 841
About the FutureManagementGroup AG
For management teams we recognize explore and develop opportunities in future markets
Thus we provide competitive advantage by development and growth secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company wwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Imprintcopy FutureManagementGroup AG 2014
Wallufer Straszlige 3aD-65343 EltvilleTel +49 (0)6123 60109 ndash 0Fax +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29officefuturemanagementgroupcomwwwFutureManagementGroupcom
Board of Directors Dr Pero Mićić (Chairman) Martin RueschChairman of the Board Prof Dr Peter Mettler
Registry Court Amtsgericht WiesbadenRegistration Number HRB 17918Tax Id DE 227 644 650
Images and Illustrationscopy iStockFutureManagementGroup AG
The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright If you wish to use these materials please contact the copyright owner
ISSN 2363-6734