the future of business and economics

8/6/2019 The Future of Business and Economics

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THE STRATEGIC IMPACT OF

NANOTECHNOLOGY ON THE

FUTURE OF BUSINESS AND

ECONOMICS



PURPOSE OF THIS ARTICLE

1. To provide leading-edge intelligence about the Emerging trends, innovations

and forecasts that will greatly affect consumers, business and society in the

future.2. To better prepare leaders to direct change and shape the future.

The rapid evolution of advanced technology has constantly served up innovation after

innovation in super-compressed timeframes - from the mapping of the Human Genome

and cloning to supercomputers and the Internet. Information technology is now

responsible for as much as one-third of the U.S. Gross National Product. This is an

astounding metric validating we are entering an era driven by accelerated technology

developments, that have increasingly a significant economic value. The rapid advance of

new technology has moved beyond our ability to accurately forecast with precision the

impact on economics, business and society. We need to approach this challenge with new

predictive models that are designed for the real-time complex changes that emerging

technologies are influencing. This is perhaps most relevant given the challenges of

nanotechnology.

We are in the midst of a large-system paradigm shift driven by accelerated exponential

growth of new technology. We are witnesses to faster, more comprehensive change

shaped by new technology than any civilization in history. This is but the beginning of a

new wave of technologies, such as nanotechnology, that will redefine, reshape and

eventually transform economies and societies on a global scale. Nanotechnology is a

continuation of the next chapter in the acceleration of advanced technology and, perhaps

more importantly, it may point towards the transformation of the future global economy.

Nanotechnology may become an essential large-systems strategic competency that willrequire coordination among all sectors of society in order to become a force for enhanced

social productivity. This technology is fast emerging. Nanotechnology may well shape

the sustainability and wealth of nations, organizations and entire industries in the future.

A central concern here is the necessity for us, together as a nation, to plan today to meet

the readiness challenges that most certainly will lie ahead.



If Nanotechnology, the manipulation of matter at the atomic level , at maturity achieves

even a fraction of its promise, it will force the reassessment of global markets and

Economies and industries on a scale never experienced before in human history. The

ubiquitous nature of nanotechnology as a fundamental design science will have

applications for numerous industries: manufacturing, health care, and transportation to

name a few. Since we do not know what yet is possible we can only speculate on the

potential. Those societies and interests that develop the next generation tools will be first

to building the Nanoeconomy of the 21st century.

The Mapping of the Human Genome is just the beginning. Genomics, bioinformatics,

Systems-Biology and Proteomics will transform biotech into an evolutionary design

science affecting everything from health care to agriculture. Human performance

enhancement will be the largest market in the 21st century.

Nanotechnology May Drive Prosperity and Global Competitiveness

Recent developments in emerging technology and its impact on business and economics

would indicate that forecasts are less than accurate in predicting the future. Few wouldhave accurately forecast innovations such as of the Internet, wireless communications or

the mapping of the Human Genome. Also, there have been numerous wild forecasts that

have historically seemed more like science fiction than fact. Predictions about

nanotechnology have fueled the imagination. Much of this is still imagination but the

future looks promising. Nevertheless, innovations in technology are reshaping the global

economy at a dizzying speed. It would be prudent to consider the possible economic

outcomes given the accelerated emergence of advanced technology. To not b prepared, to

spurn readiness would be unwise given the promise of nanotechnology. It is with this in

mind that we turn to nanotechnology. Why is the potential economic impact of

nanotechnology so important to consider?



Nanotechnology is a fundamental design science, yet to emerge, mostly theoretical today

that may well provide us with the tools to engineer inorganic and organic matter at the

atomic level. Nanotechnology, if even partially realized, over the next few decades has

the potential to realign society, change business and affect economics at the structural

level. New business models, design tools and manufacturing strategies may emerge at

price points much reduced and highly efficient.

Nanotechnology will touch all aspects of economics: wages, employment, purchasing,

pricing, and capital, exchange rates, currencies, markets, supply and demand

Nanotechnology may well drive economic prosperity or at the least be an enabling factor

in shaping productivity and global competitiveness. Again, we are free to speculate in the

dawn of such a new science.

If developments in nanotechnology reach, a critical mass in supplying radically

innovative breakthroughs in automated self-assembly, as one example, most vertical

industries will be influenced. Most industrial and post-industrial supply chains will be

changed. What if the fabrication lines for making computers are reduced in costs by

50%? What if drug development and manufacturing costs are reduced by 70%? What if

energy sources were not dependent upon fossil fuels? What then might the impact be if

nanotechnology were applied to real cost reductions for essential goods and services that

affect quality of life, health, habitat and transportation? There would be a dramatic

impact on lifestyles, jobs, and economics. Most value chains, supportive linkages,

alliances and channels of distribution will be altered. Institutions of learning, financial

services and certainly manufacturing will be reshaped.

We must learn to ask the questions now about how nanotechnology may change our

choices, affect our lifestyles, shape our careers, influence our communities - we must

ask now and prepare so we may examine the implications that may shape the future we

will live in together.



The issues that remain are to consider in what timeline what actions might be taken. How

might we prepare as a society for these changes? Will there be radical dislocations or a

smooth coordinated adaptation? We must plan for multiple scenarios.

Radical nanotechnology innovations potentially unleashed on immature markets, fragile

economies and a business community ill prepared for rapid post-industrial transformation

would be problematic. We see today alterations driven by e-business and the Internet

already causing deep change to industries and economies worldwide.

• Imagine the emergence of a nanochip that tomorrow would deliver over 50

gigahertz of speed with the processing power of ten supercomputers for the price

of a quartz watch and smaller than a key chain. What might the economic impact

on the computer industry be overnight?

• Imagine a super-strong and inexpensive material to be used for construction and

manufacturing that would eliminate the market for steel and plastics. How might

that influence the economy?

In a world being reshaped daily by innovations, the absurd today is reality tomorrow. But

with the intimate inter-linkage of markets, industries and economies radical breakthroughtechnologies will have a widespread and far reaching impact - positive and negative. It is

entirely possible that, just as computers and the Internet have become vital linchpins

woven into the fundamental economic landscape of today's strong economy,

nanotechnology will emerge as one of the key technologies that shape the future

economy. Many of the necessary factors are in place to drive this scenario: widespread

potential cross-industry applications; fast track R&D; government investment.

The risks in not preparing for and examining the economic and business impact are too

large to ignore.

In an era of prosperity, it is difficult to consider the lack of global leadership that might

befall a nation such as the United States. How might the United Kingdom have better



prepared for its 19th century challenges if it had known what was to come at the height of

its global leadership in the last century? We might well ask the same questions today.

Readiness is always a wise choice. Especially when it appears, we may not need to be

vigilant.

Nations today - ill prepared to capitalize on the Internet, the transformation of supply

chains or the mobile commerce sparked by advanced telecommunications are playing

catch up and it has hampered their productivity, GDP and competitiveness.

The Nanotechnology in Business Study

In 1999, the Institute for Global Futures deployed a privately funded study to assess

the general awareness and readiness of the business community regarding the

economic and business impact of nanotechnology. A series of interviews with a broad

range of business executives in health care, manufacturing, medicine, real estate,

information technology, consumer goods, entertainment and financial services was

conducted, in addition, is still being conducted at this time. The Institute for Global

Futures, a ten-year-old San Francisco organization advises the Fortune 1000 and

government on the impact of leading-edge technology on markets, society, customersand the economy. The Institute covers telecommunications, robotics, computers, life

sciences, the Internet, software, artificial intelligence and a host of other technologies

and forecasts trends.

Preliminary Findings

Overall, the level of awareness and readiness is low, based on the survey results. Less

than 2% indicated that they thought they knew what nanotechnology was. An

additional 2% had heard of nanotechnology but could not explain what it meant. Of

those surveyed, 80% agreed when nanotechnology was explained in basic terminology

that this was an important technology that had the potential to affect them and their

business; 45 expressed an interest in learning more about nanotechnology.



Though one could question at this time, when Nanotechnology is still in its infancy,

largely theoretical, why should anyone care and why would we even expect readiness?

The issue is one of accelerated change and its impact on business and society. We are

interested in readiness and awareness prior to the accelerated changes that may lie

ahead. Moreover, not as far ahead as we might think. Important Issues regarding

research and development in Nanotechnology are present today. There are real issues

that bear examination today as we plan for the impact on tomorrow. Readiness is

central to adaptation.

Nanotechnology Economic Scenarios: How Nations Prepare

In addition to this survey of business executives, another activity has been undertaken as

an integral part of this study. Given the relative and varying levels of social adaptation,

we examined what might the potential scenarios be, given the contrasting readiness

factors of a society. The following scenarios are briefly described as a way to generate

further exploration and discussion. The value of these scenarios may be viewed as a

catalyst for mapping future impact on an economy and society.

An attempt was made here to incorporate the key drivers that would shape the scenarios

explored. Readiness is viewed as a precursor to these scenarios. The relative nature of

socio-economic readiness, awareness and preparation will pre-determine these scenarios

and others yet to be envisioned here. This is a work in progress and will be updated, as

new information becomes available. Societal readiness was defined as the awareness and

ability to take action; it is viewed, as a mission-essential driver of economic and

industrial adaptation. Readiness regarding education, capital, talent, coordination, and

communications are all integrally part of the same platform. As nanotechnology may

translate into the sustainability of nations, organizations and entire industries - readiness,

the preparation and planning process, becomes vitally important to define and examine.



Scenario One:

Brave New World (Timeline: 2020-2050)

Economic Environment:

Nanotechnology comprehensively integrated into the economy due to high readiness,effective strategic planning and widespread investments by business, education, labor and

government. Accelerated national policy and investments producing economic agility and

rapid widespread large system change management. There is a widespread understanding

of the numerous benefits from applications of nanotechnology, its strategic economic

value for the nation, and its role in maintaining global U.S. leadership. Comprehensive

social and industry-wide adoption has led to a positive impact on national productivity

and an enhanced quality of life.

Key Characteristics:

Robust gross national product; high productivity; global trade leadership; sustainable

economic growth; global patent leadership; superior industrial competitiveness;

integrated education and training resources; strong investment climate; plentiful capital

liquidity; high investment on R&D; low unemployment; high government and industry

collaboration.

Future Outlook:

Very positive. An ever-escalating predominance in key markets and industries leading to

increased investments and innovations. An accelerated progressive and confident growth

prognosis for the economy, and an enhanced quality of life for the nation. Global

leadership and empowerment of third world and developing nations increasing.

Accelerated investment in R&D and continued coordination with all sectors of society.



Scenario Two:

Playing Catch-up

(Timeline: 2020-2050)

****THIS IS WHERE AFRICA COMES IN!!!!!!!****

Economic Environment:

Nanotechnology partially integrated into the economy due to low readiness and

inadequate strategic planning. Economy playing catch-up. Slow social and industry-wide

nanotechnology adoption. Reactive cultural reaction to investment and organizational and

industry leadership for accelerated national change management. Not a full commitment

and investment in national nanotechnology policy.


Partial loss of leadership in key markets and industries; Lack of skilled talent; poor

education and training; growing but still low investment in R&D; fragmented industry

support; poor investment climate; liquidity insufficient; fragmented government and

industry collaboration.

Outlook:

Optimistic if rapid and strategic widespread large-systems change is undertaken in a

concerted effort by business and government partnership. Difficult to regain ground in

certain markets, but partial leadership in key markets is a success to be built on for the

future.



Scenario Three:

The Bumpy Road (Timeline: 2020-2050)

Economic Environment:Absence of comprehensive nanotechnology integration, adoption and readiness leading to

a drastic reduction in post-industrial growth, poor performance in global competitiveness

with a negative growth impact on the overall economy. Denial of the strategic value and

importance. Inability to invest in the actions required to manage comprehensive large-

system socio-economic change.


Loss of key markets and industries; rising unemployment; chaos in selected sectors; brain

drain going offshore; lack of investment liquidity; low investment in R&D; fragmented

business and government collaboration; flight capital moving offshore; educational

support low.

Outlook:

Moving forward into the future, it will be difficult to seize and attain market and industry

leadership without a significant investment in R&D, education, training and

private/government collaboration. A commanding market share in key industries and

global leadership will have been sacrificed. Regaining this ground, certainly global

leadership, will be a massive undertaking certain to strain capital and human resources.

An acceptance of a less involved global leadership role will be the probable outcome.

Towards the Evolution of a Nanoeconomy and

the Future

Wealth of Nations

As the global economy continues to be transformed by new technology, a keen

competition will develop for talent, intellectual property, capital and technical expertise.

We see many of these factors responsible for shaping how nations today compete,



interact and trade. Technical innovations will increasingly shape economies and market

robustness. Technology will continue to drive global and domestic GDP. Competition

will be fueled increasingly by fast breaking innovations in technology. Today this is

obvious as rapid technological changes in telecommunications, life sciences, and the

Internet demonstrates the emergence of entirely new economic and business realities. If

the proliferation of today's technologies to form new business models is any indication of

the speed and power of change in the economy, future nanotechnologies will make for an

even more dramatic paradigm shift.

The evolution of a nano-economy, as contrasted with the petro-economy of today, is an

intriguing idea. How might an economy not dependent on oil realign itself? More study

will need to be conducted in order to understand and map these scenarios. Fundamental

nanotechnology innovations yet to come will set the timeline for this economic

transformation. Or, nanotechnology may just become integrated into industries such as

health care, manufacturing and energy much like artificial intelligence became an

embedded component of new products.

In conclusion, the readiness of a nation to prepare for large-scale economic change is a

challenging task. Nevertheless, the future wealth of nations, certainly the economic

sustainability of nations, will be shaped by the preparations we make today. Coordinated

large-systems strategic planning efforts may well shape our ability to adapt. Strategically

important decisions will need to be made. Vastly important national security and

economic issues lay yet unexamined. Huge cultural issues related to managing large-scale

change will need to be better understood and plans formulated.

Nanotechnology provides a stimulating and somewhat awesome challenge to meet. If we

had the knowledge in the 1960s and 1970s to prepare for the impact of computers or

telecom in the 1990s, how might we have prepared the nation? Today we have real-time

examples and a history of rapid accelerated economic change due to new technology to

learn from, in preparing for the future.



It is too trite to state no one can know the future. The future may indeed

be unpredictable. But we do know that without asking the hard questions,

without speculating on the possibilities, without preparing the nation by

building readiness, we may do ourselves a disservice that will be difficult

to repair.

As nanotechnology moves from the theoretical to the practical, as many of us believe it

shall do faster than is expected, then the possible impact on business, society and the

economy will become evident over time. Nevertheless, we have a new opportunity today.

Given the recent history of digital technology and access to better models of socio-

economic analysis, we must consider growing readiness a social responsibility. We must

consider readiness as part of our social policy.

We might well consider the possible futures that will result from our collective actions.

We must have the courage to speculate on the possible nanotech futures we may shape as

a nation. This will determine whether we have a Brave New World or a Bumpy Road. It

is as if we are living in the Middle Ages just before the dawn of the Renaissance.

Moments ago, we invented the computer. Then by accident, we converted the Net from a

government experiment into a global marketplace. Cloning was an invention of fiction,

not science.

Computers that could win at chess were another fantasy, not tangible machines. The

pieces of the puzzle are falling into place: The Renaissance is taking shape! The future,

coming closer every nanosecond, will be marked by innovations that will startle even the

most imaginative among us. Walking, talking, and smiling Robots. The elimination of

most disease by genetic therapy. Virtual business that lives on the Net. Digital TV that

supports interaction. Virtual reality worlds that rival reality with their authenticity. Yes,

the next millennium will be built upon technological miracles and they will seem extreme

to those of us who are alive now.



How much would we have paid for a heads-up briefing on how the Internet was going to

affect business and the economy 5 years before it became an explosive market force?

This book is a heads-up briefing about how next-generation technologies will transform

business, markets and society. One way to view this book is as a reference in identifying

new business opportunities and planning ventures that will intersect with emerging

businesses. The other way to consider this book is on a personal level—what all these

techno futures may mean to us as human beings.

The Power Tools described here are the beginning of a fantastic revolution. This

revolution will redefine how we live and work, love and play, create and destroy. Until

now, we have lived our lives marking time mostly by personal changes—high school

graduation, marriage, our first job. No more. The oncoming change catalyzed by

emerging technology will realign culture, reshape economies, turn science upside down,

release countless innovations, and transform every human endeavor. Old ideologies will

die and new ideas will reign. Much of how this will pan out is, of course, unknowable,

but some of the catalysts of the revolution are becoming clearer. This chapter attempts to

lay the logic pattern of what this change will bring. The convergence of leading-edge

technology will be the single most powerful driver of change for the next 100 years. Half

of all the products that will be sold in the next 5 years haven’t even been invented yet.

DNA databases are doubling every 8 months. Bandwidth is doubling every 10 months. E-

commerce sales are growing by 100 percent every 6 months. The Net is doubling every

90 days. This is just a taste of the oncoming, rapid changes. We will be awestruck by the

speed, complexity and animation of the technology that has yet to emerge.

Tools as Artifacts of Change

For centuries, tools have been the decisive markers for stages of human evolution, as well

as commerce. Early humans’ use of Stone Age tools determined death or survival. As

civilization progressed, we moved out of the Hunter-Gatherer stage using tools to harness

nature and invent agriculture. The tools of the Agrarian stage transformed civilization

again, leading us from a nomadic lifestyle into settlements. The Industrial Era, best



characterized by the steam engine, revealed a more sophisticated set of tools that

accelerated social progress and, particularly, commerce. The Post-Industrial or

Information Era is symbolized by the computer, the most powerful tool humans have yet

created. Whether they are made from iron or steel, computers or genes, tools shape

civilization and enable the future. As we move ahead into the next millennium, a new set

of powerful tools, almost beyond imagination, will define opportunity as never before.

Tools as Enablers of the Future Throughout time, humans have held the distinction of

being the only species that uses tools to make tools. We have now reached a threshold

where the development of a new class of complex tools—I call them Power Tools—will

accelerate change in extreme ways. This rapid change will provoke huge opportunities

and challenges for business. Companies that learn how to manage the Four Power

Tools and the Four Building Blocks, the raw materials essential to the process of 21st

Century innovation, will create astonishing competitive advantage. This chapter is a

primer on them.

The Four Power Tools

1. Computers

2. Networks

3. Biotech

4. Nanotech

These Power Tools are predictive drivers of change and the essential design strategies of

the next 100 years. If we understand them, we can begin to envision what the next logical

steps may be. We can set certain metrics to work to extend our thinking forward.

For example, we will finish mapping the Human Genome by 2005. When this

momentous event is complete, we can begin to predict with some certainty the specific,

dramatic changes that will occur in medicine. There are similar defining moments in

entertainment, education and commerce. Fast-bandwidth and wireless connections to the

home will offer new entertainment services barely hinted at now. The merging of the

telephone and the Internet will transform communications. Microprocessor power, over a



million times faster than that of today’s chips, will create synthetic intelligence driving

robots.

Advances in biotech today will lead to the redesign of life itself. These kinds of

advancements are what the Power Tools enable; the overview of them here offers the

strategic picture of the future. The tactical, more specific picture emerges throughout the

rest of this book. My forecasts and scenarios reflect a logical evolution of these Power

Tools. For example, it is possible to forecast the next stage evolution of computers by

projecting out the logical increases in microchip power. Moores’ Law, which projects

computing power doubling at least every year, is one yardstick. Robots will become one

of the beneficiaries of the powerful new smart chips, moving into our lives as helpers.

Silicon for making chips will give way to new synthetic substances and eventually

biochips and quantum chips will rule. In this way we are building a future based on the

accomplishments and discoveries of the past.

Though biotech and nanotech are in their infancy, the potential for these

fundamental technologies to revolutionize our world is immense.

Biotech would not exist without the breakthroughs in computers that were led by the

microchip. The advancements in nanotech are being built upon the breakthroughs in

biotech, computers and networks. It is all a series of innovations built upon the

knowledge and resources of the Power Tool that comes before it. The progression of new

technology spawning new products is moving faster and faster. In the last 50 years, there

has been more technology innovation than in the previous 5,000 years. The laser sat on

the shelf for years before scientists at Bell Labs applied it—we can’t afford to let that

happen anymore. We have to act on our awareness of technology’s presence. The Power

Tools of the new millennium are causing a rapid design of new products, business models

and markets. They call us to action. This is just the beginning of the emergence of speed

as a competitive advantage in business. Those who can deploy the right solution the

fastest will grow sustainable 21st Century businesses. Being fast to market and



leveraging the Power Tools is all part of the race for customers, market share and profits

that will define the next millennium organization.

The printing press caused the monks, the exclusive bookmakers to the wealthy elite, to

lose their monopoly. The TV eclipsed the radio. Trains lost ground to trucks. Wireless

telephones will soon make hard-wire phones obsolete. The TV, telephone and Internet

will merge into something new. Interactive media will dominate entertainment. Supply

and demand will be shaped by strategic technology that changes the economics of the

day. We are entering a time where new technologies such as the Internet will realign

markets and the economy at an unprecedented pace. The network as the new business

model will force traditional business to adapt or die.

Much of what seems strange or wacky today will be commonplace tomorrow. From

virtual reality movies to neural implants and wearable computers, the weird world of the

near future will come faster then any of us can imagine. The Power Tools of the future

will be at work, innovating, changing and evolving. Understanding this evolution and

getting “in synch” with what’s coming will be increasingly a business-critical capability

for every leader and every organization.

Power Tool #1: Computers

Microchip technology is now ubiquitous and there is more computing power on a desktop

than existed in the entire world before 1960. Over the course of a few decades, computers

have become embedded into virtually every aspect of daily life. They are the engines of

the present. The computer is the baseline Power Tool of the 21st Century, an extension of

the human brain. Owning a computer is like having a team of efficient, smart andcompetent help for certain dedicated tasks. Computers are on-demand brains in a box.

The ultimate Power Tool for probing the yet unseen workings of the universe is the

computer. As we move towards unraveling the theories of Einstein and those who are at

the forefront of physics today, the computer has become more than just a basic



computation or graphics device, as some may still believe. The supercomputers of today

can render extremely complex behavioral and structural models of virtually anything that

can be imagined, from the mechanics of the universe to the molecular constructs of life

itself.

In essence, the computer is a dynamic viewing tool making visible the next level of

abstraction and discovery, from drugs to robots to art to space exploration. The next stage

in the evolution of computers will seem awesome in power, capability and speed. The

computer is the parent of the next Power Tools.

Power Tool #2: Networks

The networks of today that enable phones to work and bring the Internet to homes and the

office owe their infrastructure to computers. So do the wireless and satellite networks

taking shape that are a key driver of our future. All of this will seem tame compared to

where we are going with the fast multimedia networks of tomorrow. The Internet is a

global marketplace without borders. Here, “the Net” also refers to the network

convergence of all communications devices on the planet—satellite, telephone, TV, and

wireless devices. “Network” is a metaphor for universal connectivity, a fundamental

force that will continue to shape education, the enterprise and culture.

At this juncture, there is a critical-mass threshold. The union of computers—that is,

networks of computers—means we have achieved scalable collections of parallel-process

engines capable of delivering power at a level of operation not considered possible a

decade ago. This is a whole new game. This convergence of computers and networks is

providing a level of innovation we have never experienced before in the history of

humanity. Fast, smart and powerful networks providing high-speed access for combiningvoice, data, video, and graphics is what’s coming. From cable modems and Digital

Subscriber Lines (DSL) to a variety of fiber optic and wireless services, next generation

communication networks will change business and lifestyles. Data traffic will increase to

over 10 times voice traffic. Voice will be free as we build out the new digital

communications infrastructure for the next century. This is exactly the operational



threshold required to enter the next gateway, the engineering of life itself—the realm of

biotechnology.

Power Tool #3: BiotechMapping the Human Genome is a scientific threshold of monumental importance. Once

we cross over it in about 2005, we will redefine human life, health and science. We are

quickly walking toward it now. The difference between the Pre-Genomic society of today

and the Post-Genomic Society after 2005 will be as profound as warfare models before

and after the invention of the atomic bomb. If any discovery might illuminate our path

into the future, it would certainly be mapping the Genome. Most people are unaware of

avalanche of innovation in health care that will be put in motion by this effort. This book

covers leading indicators in the industry. Biotech is about the revolutionary design of life

on the planet at the DNA level. Correcting diseases, treating mental dysfunction and

physical defects, and creating new drugs and foods are specific outcomes of applying

biotech tools. The big picture shows us redesigning life itself.

A combination of 3 factors allows us to reach the threshold of the biotech domain:

molecular manipulation as a “mechanical” assembly process; advanced supercomputing,

which allows for the modeling of complex molecular and physiological systems; and the

“discovery” of newly formed biological materials, such as proteins. Additionally, the

devices used to create synthetically contrived biological materials, including recombinant

DNA, the building block components of life itself, utilize a new type of invention

emerging in bioscience labs around the world—the biochip. In brief, biochips are the

combination of microcircuits and microscale fluidic and mechanical assemblies. They

rely on technologies very similar to those used to create computer chips, but integrate

biological materials. This will lead to the next Power Tool.



Power Tool #4: Nanotech

The tools of bioscience are the progenitors of the ultimate Power Tool—nanotech.

Nanotech is the manipulation of matter at the atomic level for the creation of a wide

range of artifacts that comprise our reality. Nanotech is the most superior design

technology ever conceptualized and it is becoming more real every day. From food to

energy, construction materials to DNA, nanotech will be the tech we use to construct

matter. It will surpass the potential of all the other Power Tools described thus far. To

understand the full meaning of nanotech is to grasp the very essence of all observable

things that currently exist, as well as things that could not exist in the “natural” world.

Nanotech is about creating the amazing and the sublime. It is about shape-shifting reality.

Nanotech will place in people’s hands the power to create and destroy in an

unprecedented way.

The underlying theme here is that nanotech is not a single, obscure technical specialty or

minor blip on the radar screen of human development. Nanotech is an extraordinary

fabrication process, a means by which an object—organic or non-organic, living or inert

—can be replicated. More importantly, however, is that the ability to assemble existing

objects or materials is only a minor aspect of what nanotech represents. The ultimate

outcome of nanotech would be the fabrication of materials and molecular constructs

never before considered possible. In short, the human species may be propelled by

nanotech far beyond the limitations of the natural rules of the observable world.

Humanity will be able to work with the most powerful of Power Tools and fabricate at

will any material, substance, object or living being including ourselves.

Once nanotech’s event horizon is crossed there is no turning back. The rules of

commerce, business models, even the definition of life by its current standards of measurement, will be irreversibly altered. And this event horizon could well occur within

our lifetime. Nanotech will use all of the principles and innovations produced by the

other Power Tools to reach its full potential. It is the ultimate alchemy. From the robot on

the head of a pin that can perform heart surgery, to the food compilers that will generate

dinner, to DNA assemblers that will build powerful spaceships inexpensively, nanotech



will change everything. It sounds crazy to speculate about this technology, but much

evidence suggests that we are moving at a fast clip into a future that, by 2020, will be

reshaped by nanotech.

The Four Building Blocks

The Building Blocks are the raw materials essential to the Power Tools. These Building

Blocks are not far removed from what our ancient Stone Age craftsman might have used

—only the order of complexity has increased. As they might have used water, rock and

dirt to shape the edge of the stone ax, we will shape our tools with materials at hand.

The Four Building Blocks are Bits, the essential components that underlie digital

communications. Atoms, the essential components that make up all matter, all physical

things. Neurons, the essential components that comprise the communications and

functions of the human brain. Genes, the essential components that make up the blueprint

of all life forms. The companies that understand how to use these essential Building

Blocks in perfecting the Power Tools will thrive in a fast-breaking economy. The speed,

intelligence and understanding of how to mix and match, manage and combine, package

and extract from these resources will be business-critical for the 21st century

organization.

Shaping the Future

These Power Tools and Building Blocks are the foundation of what’s to come.

Companies will be ahead of the game in their strategic planning if they keep that in mind

as they identify new business opportunities. The next chapters will go into detail about

how these Power Tools and Building Blocks may evolve and perform in the near-future

world of the 21st century



How Leading-Edge Technology will Transform Business in the

21st Century

Managing Future Change and Leadership

What are the top technologies we must have to drive competitive advantage in the future?

How can we use technology to differentiate our company in a commodity-based global

market? What are the key technological strategies that will help us win and keep

customers? Understanding how to manage change about technology may be one of the

most important business-critical challenges facing leaders today, and the least

understood. Technology strategy and change management is one of the central ways the

enterprise will survive in the next century. On one level, this book is a briefing document

about the powerful technologies that may transform the future. On another level,Technofutures is about how to manage change to be able to develop an integrated

technology strategy and thrive in the 21st century. Every business leader needs to be able

to read these signs and meet this challenge to survive the tech-intensity of the 21st

century marketplace. At the Institute for Global Futures, we have studied technology

change and its impact on customers, business and society. The following findings are

forecasts for today and into the next millennium.

Finding #1:

Why customers adopt most new products and services has more to do with how they

relate to personal change than with the actual products or services.

Finding #2:

How leaders manage the change process in the corporate culture, with customers, and in

the marketplace, (support for training and customer support and promotion) often

determines the success of the entire company, not only just the product line or service.

Finding #3:

There are Four Change Management Styles that can be used to diagnose how people:

customers, employees, suppliers and partners relate to technology change. This is most

important when diagnosing leaders.



FOUR CHANGE MANAGEMENT STYLES

We devised a model that I have found useful to explain how people embrace or deny

change. We have used it to diagnose leaders, teams, companies, competitors, and

customers. It can be applied to non-technology change as well. When confronted with

technology innovations, people manage change differently based on a variety of factors.

This is not to say that every innovation should be blindly embraced, but with the daily

emergence of complex technologies, it will become vital to an organization’s growth that

its leaders adopt openness to innovation.

Four Change Management Styles make up our model. They are the Traditionalist, the

assertive resistor of change; the Maintainer, the covert resistor of change; the Adapter,who embraces change and is willing to learn new things; and the Innovator, the leader of

change, a risk-taker.

TRADITIONALISTS

Traditionalists are assertive individuals who openly resist change. They tend to reinforce

a philosophy of “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” They can elucidate numerous reasons why

“things ought to stay the way they are;” often “time tested” is a big reason behind their

resistance to the change. “This will never work and let me give you the 10 reasons why”

is the authoritative response to a creative proposal. Most organizations that have

difficulty changing are dominated by Traditionalists. Their open resistance is the death

knell of the enterprise. They can be extreme supporters of denial.

MAINTAINERS

Maintainers tend to be silent, covert resistors of change. They say “yes,” but mean “no.”

Maintainers are difficult to spot, often hiding behind Traditionalists or even being

apologists for Traditionalists: “This is why it’s just not a good idea,” they rationalize.

Maintainers tend to want to maintain the status quo even more than Traditionalists do.

They don’t like to “make waves.” In the past, this culture of “get along and go along” up

the corporate ladder of success was the key to survival. Today, that is the end of the game

and often spells the end of a career. When a new technology or innovation emerges,



Maintainers are very cautious, slow to react and resistant to learning why it has value.

“Why do customers need information about their orders on the Net?” This is the

statement of a true Maintainer. In the past, Traditionalists and Maintainers have

dominated entire industries. The U.S. auto industry in the 1960’s could not see the need

for smaller, more fuel-efficient cars even as oil prices where going through the roof. This

led to foreign competitors with compact cars seizing a commanding piece of the U.S.

auto market. Appearing to be oblivious to the young computer revolution, Wang

Computer Company stayed in the word processing business. (One of their big customers

continued to be the U.S. government—what else does that tell us?) IBM missed the

competitive advantage of leading the personal computer business early on, never

believing that PC’s made any sense. United Parcel Service created their competition by

not listening to customer requests for computerized billing and other customer-centric

innovations.

Companies that were change ready built profits and grew market share. Companies such

as IBM, General Motors and UPS learned to change and have made stunning comebacks

in the marketplace. Others like Wang and Western Union never learned to manage the

business-critical changes necessary to survive. They are gone never to be resurrected. The

Traditionalists and Maintainers of the world, either in our organizations or in our

customer mix, need help. These folks are often valuable, but have the wrong approach to

the shifting realities of today’s business environment. These are the CEOs that invested

heavily in that information technology project that was antiquated before it was complete.

The call center manager that doesn’t understand the value of the Net. The supply chain

VP who still thinks it is about warehouses and not information and logistics. As we move

into the future with the convergence of new technologies changing everything in Net

time, change management is business-critical. Either we understand that or we are

history. The change needed to succeed in the 21st century requires more investment in

training and education for employees and superior, personalized marketing and customer

service. This is mostly about a mindset that either is open to or denies change.



ADAPTERS

The Adapter is the type of individual, organization or customer that is open to change.

Adapters have a willingness to learn new things—to learn whatever is necessary to grow

the business, increase quality and identify breakdowns to achieving success. They are key

stakeholders in the change. Adapters don’t necessarily enjoy dealing with change any

more than Traditionalists or Maintainers, but they are more courageous about taking

actions to manage change. They are willing to take responsibility for managing the

change process and enrolling others to change. Leaders with this mindset managed

companies we studied that changed quickly and deeply. They are ready for the new

millennium. They drank the Kool Aid and it was good.

INNOVATORS

The fourth Change Management Style is easy to spot. Innovators are the folks who, after

leading the charge about an innovative solution, have at least a few arrows in their back.

Innovators are the early adopters of a new idea; they are the pioneers of change. Often

dismissed as crazy or driven, they are the inspiration for companies, customers and

industries changing. Steve Jobs, Charles Schwab, Michael Bloomberg, and Ted Turner

are classic examples of Innovators who saw into the future and used this insight of

emerging change to build successful companies. Their success may be described as

having to do with more effectively managing change than their competitors. Many more

Innovators struggle every day to get their leaders to understand how to manage the

changes they see coming over the horizon. It would serve leaders well to listen to the

visions and voices of those Innovators that are providing direction for managing the

future. Not all may be today’s leaders, but they are candidates for the company of the

future—either ours or our competition. Innovators will always find work. If we don’t

listen to them they will leave and create opportunity elsewhere. There are too many

examples of this to illustrate. Having eyes to see this as a leader is business-critical to

success.



THE CUSTOMER AS INNOVATOR

Part of the dynamic of managing change is how organizations deal with customers. We

don’t ever want to be out of synch with our customers. It is a recipe for disaster. We want

to enable customers by delivering what they want precisely when they want it. Often in

the past, Innovator-companies were too far ahead of customers. Innovative products that

were a technological triumph would fail to be accepted in the marketplace. The opposite

is more the case today. Customers are driving change. Customers want easier to use,

faster, smarter and more cost-effective technology solutions. Customers are more often

the Innovators pulling their Traditionalist and Maintainer vendors along: “We need more

electronic customer service.” We need faster time to market. ” “We need more

information and we need it now.”

I forecast that the key competitive pressures on the marketplace will come from

customers as Innovators who are establishing higher and faster benchmarks of

performance for their suppliers and vendors. The solution is to better manage the change

process internally and learn to dance the dance of providing fast-track innovation.

Otherwise, customers will go to someone else. Does this management of change really

have anything to do with adopting new technology? Yes, but first it has to do with having

an openness to see the changes and embrace the future possibilities. Eventually this

translates into analyzing the potential impact and marshaling the resources to change

people—corporate cultures first, then products and services. Managing change starts with

people who have a mindset that’s open to change.

THE LEADER AS A FUTURIST

The entire idea of being a leader is shifting, given the rapid changes in technology,

markets and society. The need for leaders to develop a futurist perspective, to be able to

be more aware of the business-critical trends that will shape tomorrow, is now essential.

Presidents of companies everyday are losing their jobs for not moving forward fast

enough. Companies are losing market share for not understanding change. Customers are



hungry to exchange their loyalty, not for name brand or tradition, but for innovation.

Innovation is the celebration of a successful effort in managing change, whether this

translates into a new product or innovative customer service solution. A better

understanding and management of high technology futures—be it the Internet or E-

business, cloning or computers, genetic markers or smart drugs—starts with being open

to innovation and managing change. Keep this old saying in mind: “Wherever we look,

we find what we are looking for.” Many of the technologies and their scenarios in this

book may have seemed strange to you. But then, who would have predicted that the

Internet would have impacted business and markets so fast? Be open to seeing the

innovations unfolding. There are many opportunities for business leaders, who have the

courage to keep an open mind in peering into the future.

The next millennium is now.

By Dr. James Canton

C.E.O & Chairman

Institute for Global Futures.

the future of business and economics

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