the future of global financial markets and the implications for pensions
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The Future of Global Financial Markets and the Implications for Pensions. Howard Davies Director - London School of Economics. Montreux 16 May 2006. Three topics: The global economy: imbalances and all that Changing asset classes in financial markets Regulation. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Future of Global Financial Markets The Future of Global Financial Markets and the Implications for Pensionsand the Implications for Pensions
Howard Davies
Director - London School of Economics
Montreux16 May 2006
Three topics:Three topics:
1. The global economy: imbalances and all that
2. Changing asset classes in financial markets
3. Regulation.
Over the last year, global GDP growth has Over the last year, global GDP growth has been remarkably synchronized.been remarkably synchronized.
Global GDP, %
0123456789
10
And growth is forecast to continueAnd growth is forecast to continue
2007 GDP Forecasts: Economist Poll
0123456789
??
Even in Europe, sentiment has been improvingEven in Europe, sentiment has been improving
Morgan Stanley Index of European Business Conditions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
June, 2005 Sept, 2005 Dec, 2005 March, 2006
50 = long-run average
But in spite of this healthy picture, there is But in spite of this healthy picture, there is plenty to worry about:plenty to worry about:
•slow growth and high unemployment in parts of continental Europe, putting strains on the Euro,
•public sector and consumption-led growth in the UK
and, most importantly
•trade imbalances between the US and China which threaten to revive protectionism in Washington
On one view, the problem is driven by On one view, the problem is driven by US trade and fiscal deficitsUS trade and fiscal deficits
US Twin deficits
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Morgan Stanley Research
Which have led to a huge discrepancy in Which have led to a huge discrepancy in consumption growthconsumption growth
Personal Consumption as a % of GDP
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Morgan Stanley Research
and a massive difference in savings and a massive difference in savings rates between the US and Chinarates between the US and China
US and China: Savings rates
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, World Bank, Morgan Stanley Research
Though it is the trade deficits which have Though it is the trade deficits which have attracted political attentionattracted political attention
Trade Surplus/ Deficit 2004
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
Japan China Rest of Asia US
and the huge accumulated foreign and the huge accumulated foreign exchange reservesexchange reserves
0100200300400500600700800900
$ billion
Foreign Reserves
At some point, these balances ought to At some point, these balances ought to begin to unwindbegin to unwind
•The US is now a net debtor of $2.5 trillion
•Protectionist pressures in Washington represent the most potent threat to the global economy
But when and how?
The Global Asset Management market is The Global Asset Management market is changing as a result of these trendschanging as a result of these trends
US49%
EU29% Middle East
7%
Japan7%Australia
2%
Asia/ Emerging Markets
6%
Est c. $ 80 trn.
Growth rates
US 11%
Non- US 35%
There has been rapid growth in debt and There has been rapid growth in debt and equity issues in Asiaequity issues in Asia
0102030405060708090
100
2002 2003 2004 2005
equitydebt
$ billion
Asian equity and debt issues
In developed markets, the trend is away In developed markets, the trend is away from new equity raising to risk transferfrom new equity raising to risk transfer
•Equity IPOs broadly flat as a percentage of GDP in recent years
•US corporate bonds have doubled as a percentage of GDP in 15 years
•Credit derivatives volume had rocketed
Private equity has grown dramaticallyPrivate equity has grown dramatically
•US deal volume over $200 billion in 2005
•More than 100 $1 billion funds
•$ 2.5 trillion purchasing power
Too much money chasing too few deals?
Hedge funds have outperformed traditional asset Hedge funds have outperformed traditional asset classes over the past five yearsclasses over the past five years
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 10 20 30
Hedge FundsUS BondsGlobal EquityUS EquityEU Equity
Standard Deviation
Annualised
Return
Risk-adjusted Returns
2001-2005
As a result, asset allocation is shifting:As a result, asset allocation is shifting:
•towards private equity
•towards hedge funds
•towards international equities
•towards other real investments
There is considerable change in prospect in There is considerable change in prospect in the regulatory environment:the regulatory environment:
•Basel 2
•MiFID
•More active enforcement
The effects of Basel ought to be:The effects of Basel ought to be:
•to align economic and regulatory capital more closely
•to benefit diversifies and especially large retail banks
•to promote more differential loan-pricing
The effects of MiFID ought to be:The effects of MiFID ought to be:
•increased equity market competition resulting from the removal of exchange concentration rules
•greater flexibility of execution by enabling internalisation of trades across Europe
ButBut
•significant implementation costs across the industry
The Future of Global Financial Markets The Future of Global Financial Markets and the Implications for Pensionsand the Implications for Pensions
Howard Davies
Director - London School of Economics
Montreux16 May 2006