The future of golf club

management

David Wood @dw2

Principal, Delta Wisdom Chair, London Futurists londonfuturists.com deltawisdom.com

Anticipating the unexpected

@dw2 Page 2

@dw2 Page 3 Vision: June 1998

Positive

feedback

cycle

Anticipated convergence

Built a software platform for collaboration

Spotted trends

@dw2 Page 4

Newspaper ad revenue

US Newspaper Advertising Revenue Adjusted for Inflation

1950 to 2014

?

@dw2 Page 5

Collapse of newspaper ad revenue

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2014/04/creative-destruction-2013-newspaper-ad-revenue-continued-its-precipitous-free-fall-and-its-probably-not-over-yet/

US Newspaper Advertising Revenue Adjusted for Inflation

1950 to 2014

@dw2 Page 6

Disruption via convergence

Are impacted & transformed

@dw2 Page 7

Disruption: collisions and collapses

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/hmv-collapse-live-blog-follow-1534816

@dw2 Page 8 http://www.philipbeeching.com/2012/08/why-companies-fail-rise-and-fall-of-hmv.html

“Greatest threats to HMV… online retailers, downloadable music…”

Advice given to HMV CEO, 2002

The CEO’s reply:

“I have never heard such rubbish”

“Downloadable music is just a fad”

“People will always want the atmosphere and experience of a music store rather than online shopping”

The dotcom bubble had just burst…

But the deeper trends were still up… Trends of computation & digitisation

@dw2 Page 9 http://www.digitaltrends.com/home-theater/blockbuster-uk-administration/

Disruption: collisions and collapses Blockbuster could

have bought Netflix for $50M

Blockbuster laughed at the

Netflix proposal

Netflix is today valued >$20B

@dw2 Page 10

Kindle books vs. physical books

www.theverge.com/2012/9/6/3298533/amazon-kindle-event-september-6th-video-watch

E-books leapfrog physical books at Amazon

in less than 3 years

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

@dw2 Page 11

Disruption via convergence

Are impacted & enhanced

Are impacted & superseded

?

See the steamrollers coming Be agile and strong enough to turn the steamrollers to your advantage

@dw2 Page 12

Trend management: seeing what’s credible 1. Identifying trends – establish your catalogue of trends

– Technological trends – Social trends – Political trends

2. Cultivate sources of insight – Customer insight – Competitor insight – Employee insight – Research insight – Maverick insight

3. Monitoring trends – Identify what would count as future “canary” signals – Update your list regularly (once a quarter, formal review annually)

@dw2 Page 13 http://www.computerworld.com/article/2473980/data-storage-solutions/143723-Storage-

now-and-then.html slide 2

128MB 128GB

@dw2 Page 14

Improvement in wireless networks www.arraycomm.com/technology/coopers-law

Cooper’s Law: The amount of information that can be transmitted over useful radio spectrum has

roughly doubled every 30 months since 1895

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1373272/ The-day-Martin-Cooper-took-mobile-phone-public-leaving-New-Yorkers-bemused-bewildered.html

@dw2 Page 15

Computations per kWh, 1950-2010 Improvement in energy efficiency of computers

Source: Jonathan Koomey, Consulting Professor, Stanford Technology Review, 9 Apr 2012

10^3 to 10^15 over 60 years

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/427444/the-computing-trend-that-will-change-everything/

40 doublings over 60 years 18 months average doubling

In line with “Moore’s Law”

100 fold improvement per decade

@dw2 Page 16

www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/events/moores_law_40th/

(Gordon) Moore’s Law: 1965

@dw2 Page 17

http://www.wsj.com/articles/moores-law-runs-out-of-gas-1429282819

@dw2 Page 18 http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2015/02/intel-forges-ahead-to-10nm-will-move-away-from-silicon-at-7nm/

Steady progress towards smaller architectures

Quantum computing?

3D chips?

Silicon -> indium gallium

arsenide?

@dw2 Page 19

Changes in the last 10 years

2005

2015 5 times faster

5 times cheaper

4 times smaller

Smartphones

Computing+++

@dw2 Page 20

Positive feedback cycles

Design, Manufacturing

Computers

@dw2 Page 21

Positive feedback cycles

Software tools (debuggers, compilers…)

Software

@dw2 Page 22

Positive feedback cycles

Education

Technology

@dw2 Page 23

People

Technology

Education

Networks

Tools Positive

feedback

cycle

Designers Entrepreneurs

Engineers

@dw2 Page 24

We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology

in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run

Roy Amara President, Institute for the Future

Amara’s Law

@dw2 Page 25

New platform capability

Disappointment

Further Disappointment

Again!

Old platform no longer

competitive

Disruptions can take a long time in gestation Even though they may eventually seem to blossom quickly

Previous platform

New processes,

skills & tools

critically important

@dw2 Page 26

B N

C I

NBIC Convergence

@dw2 Page 27

Atoms Genes

Bits Neurons

Bio-Tech

Nano-Tech

Cogno-Tech

Info-Tech

Software

Hardware

Biology Physical

@dw2 Page 28

3

Human + Machine

4

2 1

4 great convergences

Mobile -> Wearable -> -> Insideable ->…

Cyborgs

@dw2 Page 29

Convergence: Human and machine

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324235104578241801065110288.html

Wearables

@dw2 Page 30 https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/junhao/darma-sit-smart-for-a-healthy-body-and-mind

Darma: Sit smart for a healthy body and mind

“Sitting has become the smoking of our

generation” – Nilofer Merchant

“Smart cushion”

@dw2 Page 31

“Already lets you run up to 40 km/h”

http://www.bionicboot.com/

“Bionic boots”

Wearable robots

@dw2 Page 32

“Robotic suit gives shipyard workers super strength”

Daewoo Shipbuilding

Boosts raw lifting ability Workers manipulate heavy items more precisely

Suit takes most of the weight So the user is effectively handling light objects

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22329803.900-robotic-suit-gives-shipyard-workers-super-strength.html

Wearable robots: Exoskeleton

Suit weights 28 kg Made from carbon, aluminium alloy, and steel

The suit supports itself Engineered to follow the wearer’s movements

@dw2 Page 33 http://www.mc10inc.com/

“When Wearable Tech Saves Your Life, You Won’t Take It Off”

Digital tattoos

“Epidermal electronics”

The size of just 2 postage stamps

http://www.fastcompany.com/3033417/when-wearable-tech-saves-your-life-you-wont-take-it-off

@dw2 Page 34 http://the-gadgeteer.com/2013/12/30/zepp-sensor-for-golf-review/

Can be used for tennis & baseball too Zepp sensor for golf

@dw2 Page 35

“Towards 1 Billion Shipments

… within 10 years”

– Ori Inbar

“Smart Glasses Market 2015” – report from AugmentedReality.ORG

Glasses phase 1 -> phase 2 -> phase 3 -> phase 4…

@dw2 Page 36 “Smart Glasses Market 2015” – report from AugmentedReality.ORG

Glasses phase 1

Glasses phase 2

Glasses phase 3

Phase 4

@dw2 Page 37 https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/golfscape-gps-rangefinder/id382051762

@dw2 Page 38 “Smart Glasses Market 2015” – report from AugmentedReality.ORG

With probability around 60%

@dw2 Page 39

Mobile -> Wearable -> -> Insideable ->…

Cyborgs

3

Human + Machine Software + Biology

4

2 1

4 great convergences

@dw2 Page 40 http://www.genome.gov/sequencingcosts/

$100M in 2001

$10M in 2007

Halving each 2 yrs

@dw2 Page 41 http://www.genome.gov/sequencingcosts/

$100M in 2001

$10k in 2011

$10M in 2007

Halving each 2 yrs

Halving each 5 months!

@dw2 Page 42

George Church Professor of Genetics

Harvard Medical School

http://www.frontlinegenomics.com/2166/have-veritas-genetics-broken-the-1000-genome-barrier/

BOSTON, Sept. 29, 2015 /PRNewswire/ Veritas Genetics today announced that the company is making it possible for participants in the Personal Genome Project (PGP) to be among the first to get their whole genome sequenced and interpreted for less than $1,000.

@dw2 Page 43 Rob Carlson, Feb 2014: www.synthesis.cc

Price per Base of DNA Sequencing

(Reading) & Synthesis

(Writing)

Convergence: Software and biology

@dw2 Page 44

Convergence: Software and biology

http://www.economist.com/node/16163154

“And man made life”

Designer babies

Re-designed adults

Regenerative medicine

Stem cell therapies

Rejuveneering

@dw2 Page 45

“The science behind radical life extension”

“Live long enough to live forever”

Golf (or activities related to golf) as key part of health-extending

regime

@dw2 Page 46

Golf

Physical health

Mental health

Positive

feedback

cycle

@dw2 Page 47

Martin Rudolf Heland, Kaffebeslaget, 1800

Next generation neuro-stimulants?

@dw2 Page 48

Physical + Virtual

Mobile -> Wearable -> -> Insideable ->…

Cyborgs

3

Human + Machine Software + Biology

Synthetic biology

Genetic engineering

4

2 1

4 great convergences

@dw2 Page 49 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAC5SeNH8jw

@dw2 Page 50 http://gazettereview.com/2015/07/oculus-rift-changing-way-travel/

The future of virtual reality (VR) Sensory immersion

Powerful feelings!

Dangerous sports (e.g. driving!)

Transforms meetings

Telecommuting finally becomes a

first class experience “How Oculus Rift Is Changing The Way We Travel”

Our avatars represent us Virtual Reality golf? Virtual Reality golf training?

@dw2 Page 51

@dw2 Page 52

Dematerialisation

Owns no taxis Owns no hotels Owns no telco infra Owns no inventory

Owns no cinemas Creates no content Doesn’t own apps Has no actual money

https://twitter.com/MAC5WebDesign/status/663129925411454976 @ibmGE

@dw2 Page 53

Physical + Virtual

VR -> AR (Augmented Reality)

MOOCs, cryptocurrency…

Deep machine learning

Hybrid intelligence

Mobile -> Wearable -> -> Insideable ->…

Cyborgs

3 AI + Human Intelligence

Human + Machine Software + Biology

Synthetic biology

Genetic engineering

4

2 1

4 great convergences

@dw2 Page 54

Trend management: seeing what’s credible 1. Identifying trends – establish your catalogue of trends

– Technological trends – Social trends – Political trends

2. Cultivate sources of insight – Customer insight – Competitor insight – Employee insight – Research insight – Maverick insight

3. Monitoring trends – Identify what would count as future “canary” signals – Update your list regularly (once a quarter, formal review annually)

@dw2 Page 55

10 Useful maverick(?) futurist reference sites 1. The World Future Society: http://www.wfs.org/

2. Singularity Hub (published by Singularity University)

– http://singularityhub.com/

3. Futurism, by Alex Klokus: http://futurism.com/

4. Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technology (IEET): http://ieet.org/

5. The Millennium Project – “The State of the Future”: https://themp.org/

6. The Singularity 1-1 podcast series, by Nikola Danaylov

– https://www.singularityweblog.com/

7. Kurzweil Accelerating Intelligence: http://www.kurzweilai.net/

8. Peter Diamandis (author of “Abundance”): http://www.diamandis.com/

9. Andreessen Horowitz blog: “Software is eating the world”

– http://a16z.com/

10. London Futurists newsletters: http://londonfuturists.com/newsletters/

@dw2 @ramez