the future of human resources obhr e-100. source: employment policy foundation analysis and...
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The Future of Human ResourcesOBHR E-100
Source: Employment Policy Foundation analysis and projections of Census/BLS and
BEA data.
Millions of People
Expected Labor Force and Labor Force Demand
0
50
100
150
200
250
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Labor Needed
Labor Available
140142144146148150152154
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
A Growing Shortage of Workers in the U.S.Source: Tamara J. Erickson The Consours Institute
The future
Describe your perfect work situation !!!!!
What does the work look like?
What does the company value?
Where are you doing the work? What does it look like?
What benefits and perks do you value?
How do you like to be managed?
What motivates you? How do you like receive positive feedback?
How long do you imagine being with a company?
Growth in the Working-Age Population Source: Tamara J. Erickson The Consours Institute
Source: Deloitte Research/UN Population Division (http://esa.un.org/unpp/) It’s 2008: Do You Know Where Your Talent Is? Why Acquisition and Retention
Strategies Don’t Work, p.6
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Mexico Brazil India China South Australia Canada US Netherlands Spain France UK Russia Italy JapanGermanyKorea
1970-2010
2010-2050
Dramatic Drop in Birth Rates Source: Tamara J. Erickson The Consours Institute
Source: Age Wave
Tot
al F
ertil
ity R
ate
3.32.8 2.9
3.6
2.02.5 2.5
5.65.9
2.01.7 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2
1.8
3.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
US UK France Canada Japan Germany Italy China India
1960 2000
Total Fertility Rate
1900 1950 1970 1980 1990 20001910 1920 1930 1940 1960
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
80
Source: U.S. Social Security Administration
Average Life Expectancy at Birth in the U.S.
But, a Dramatic Increase in Life Expectancy Source: Tamara J. Erickson The Consours Institute
* U.S. Life Expectancy Hits New High of Nearly 78 Years," Deaths: Preliminary Data for 2005, Centers for Disease Control an Prevention's National Center for Health
* 78 in 2005
A Serious Skill Mismatch: What’s Ahead in the U.S.? Source: Tamara J. Erickson The Consours Institute
Not enough college graduates By the time they turn 30, only 30% of the
U.S. population will have a college degree Over two-thirds of the new jobs created in
the U.S. will prefer a college degree Critical shortage in key skill sets
Computer science, engineering, science, nursing
A growing number of high school dropouts And few high school graduates with solid
vocational training
Less interested in “responsibility”
as well as . . .
Highly diverse – in more than just ethnicity
Source: In part, The Seventh-Annual Workplace Report, Challenges Facing the American Workplace, Summary of Findings,” Employment Policy Foundation, 2002
Source: Based in part on “Meeting the Challenges of Tomorrow's Workplace,” CEO
Magazine, 2005
Four generations are being asked to coexist
The Emerging Workforce Has Different ValuesSource: Tamara K. Erikson The Concours Institute
Silent Gen Boomer Generation X Generation Y
Born 1928-1945 Born 1946-1964/5 Born 1965/6-1976-80 Born 1980-2000
Key shaping events: Too late to be war heroes; too early to be free spirits
First manned space flight
Successful resolution of the Cuban Missile Crisis
Significant increase in economic prosperity: home and TV ownership
Growth in white collar jobs
The Silent Generation’s Key Characteristics
Born 1928-45 Teens: 1942-1963 Now: 62+
Characteristics in the workplace:Respect authority, Hierarchical, Loyal to Institutions, Rule Makers and Conformists, Motivated by financial success and securityExperiencing ample retirement payouts
Boomers’ Key Characteristics
Key Shaping Events:
Raised to never follow a Hitler, Stalin or Big Brother
Vietnam War
Assassinations of idealistic leaders, Kennedy and King
Widespread protests – increase in crime and substance abuse
Civil Rights movement
Watergate and Nixon’s resignation
Born 1946-1964 Teens: 1960-1982 Now: 43-61
Key Characteristics:Anti-authoritarianIdealistic – seeking inner life, deeper meaningMotivated by a changing worldCompetitive
Generation X’s Key Characteristics
Born 1965-1997 Teens 1980-1997 Now: 28-42
Key Shaping Events: End of the Cold War – fall of the Berlin Wall Significant increase in their parents’ divorce rate Entry of women into the workforce – latch-key kids Significant increase in their parents’ unemployment Growth of the Internet
Key Characteristics:Self-reliantAnti-InstitutionalRule morphingTribalInformation richMost aspire to be their own boss
Shaping Events
Terrorism: 911, World Trade Center, Oklahoma City
School violence: Columbine
Global warming, natural disasters, AIDS
Ubiquitous technology
Working mothers
Unprecedented bull market
Pro-child culture
Gen Y’s Key Characteristics: Milleniums
Born 1980-2000? Today 7 - 27
Key CharacteristicsConfident and full of self-esteem TolerantPro-learning and goal oriented Plugged into infoSocially conscious Family centricSpiritual 90% are “very close” to parents
Y’s as the predominant workforce
Y’s live asynchronous lives – mulit-tasking comes naturally
Y’s coordinate, rather than plan
Y’s solve problems and perform tasks collaboratively
Y’s select and use technology in ways that make their lives easier
Y’s find new uses for technology that is “good enough”
Y’s value the role of reputation in the digital world – and rely on reputation rather than hierarchy
Y’s know how to work together and alone
Y’s “own” the technology, redrawing the line between institutional and personal
Add that to Workplace TrendsSource: SHRM Workplace Forecast: A Strategic Outlook
Rise in Health Care Costs Focus on domestic safety & security Use of technology to communicate with
employees Focus on global job security Use and development of e-learning Exporting of U.S. manufacturing jobs to
developing countries Changing definition of family
Fastest growing occupations 2002-2012
Occupation Percent growth in employment projected
Medical Assistants 59%
Network/systems and
Data communications Analysts 57%
Physician Assistants 49%
Social & Human Aides 49%
Home Health Aides 48%
Med records and Health Info Techs 47%
Physical therapy Aides 46%
Computer Apps Engineers 45%
Computer Systems Engineers 45%
Fitness Trainers 44%Database Administrators 44% Source: Bureau of
Labor Statistics
Most U.S. Job Losses: 2002-2012
Industry Thousands
Apparel Manufacturing -205
Aerospace manufacturing -83
Electronic component manufacturing -79
Computer manufacturing -68
Fabric Mills -67
Wired telecomm carriers -62
Navigational, measuring manufacturing -55
Pulp and Paper mills -42
Postal Service -38
Petroleum wholesalers -34
Oil and gas extraction -31Travel agents -31 Source: Bureau of Labor
Statistics
Strategic HR ManagementThe Traditional & New Economies
Competitive Environment Gradual evolutionary
change Stability Clearly defined industry
boundaries Power from incumbency Domestic Markets Employee Loyalty
Business Imperatives Quality Consistency and control Scale economies Mass customization Customer-led innovation Workforce development Risk management Value chain dominance
Competitive Environment Frequent, discontinuous change Creative destruction Value chains in flux Competitive advantage hard to
sustain Global markets Employee free agency
Business Imperatives Speed Flexibility and agility Digitization & unbundling Customer intimacy Technology-led innovation Organizational capabilities Strategic ‘bets’ Strategic partnering
The Past The New Economy
HR’s Role Sell traditional HR interventions Serve the internal customers Build individual employee skills Execute business strategy Defend company culture Develop policies and programs
Measures of HR Effectiveness Employee satisfaction Internal customer satisfaction HR activity levels Staffing levels
HR’s Role Support critical business
objectives Serve the company’s customers Build the organization’s
capabilities Formulate business strategy Ensure value proposition
alignment Develop guiding principles
Measures of HR Effectiveness Employee engagement and
productivity External customer satisfaction Strength of organizational
capabilities Company’s internal alignment with
value proposition to customers
The Past The New Economy
Key HR TrendsSource: SHRM Workplace Forecast: A Strategic Outlook
Growing complexity of legal compliance Use of technology to perform transactional HR functions Preparing for the next wave of retirement and labor shortage Responding to the changing demographics of a diverse
workforce Demonstrating HR’s return on investment Emphasis on HR competencies for practitioners HR’s role in promoting corporate ethics Measuring human capital Building people management or human capital components into
key business transactions Increase in outsourcing for HR expertise
The Conference Board of Canada:Hot HR Issues for the Future
1. Leadership Development: build your leadership pipeline
2. Leadership Hierarchy: must be dispersed throughout the organization
3. Employment branding: get your share of the talent you seek
4. Mindshare: get your staff focused on their work
5. Organizational capacity: must exceed the rate of change in the business environment
6. Diversity: Get ready for a heterogeneous workforce and make diversity a living value
7. Internal communication: Line managers must communicate effectively with employees
8. HR Measures: how are you helping?
Attract, Retain, and Engage the Future Workforce
Rethink “retirement” Rethink “retirement” Careers don’t just stop; they slow downCareers don’t just stop; they slow down
Create new career paths - Create new career paths - Lateral and “downward” movement. Flex hours & telecommutingLateral and “downward” movement. Flex hours & telecommuting
Recruit at multiple entry points Recruit at multiple entry points Diversity, stay-at-home parentsDiversity, stay-at-home parents
Recent grads, mid-career changers, retireesRecent grads, mid-career changers, retirees
Invest in developmentInvest in development Teach the needed skillsTeach the needed skills
Engage hearts and mindsEngage hearts and minds Future promotion and “employee of the month” won’t motivate this generationFuture promotion and “employee of the month” won’t motivate this generation
Respect, interesting & challenging work, skills development, freedom on how work gets doneRespect, interesting & challenging work, skills development, freedom on how work gets done
Best wishes in your studies!
Careers in Human Resources
BenefitsCommunicationsTraining and DevelopmentOrganizational Behaviorist or DesignerEmployee and/or Labor RelationsHRISRecruiterStrategic PlannerCompensationGeneralist