Inaugural Lecture Professor Greg Marsden18 March 2014

“We can't solve problems by 

using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.”

Georgios Kollidas ‐Shutterstock.com

testing‐Shutterstock.com

89% of lost time is in urban areas – The Eddington Review

‘New’ Challenges: Climate ChangeSource: Network Rail

Transport contributes 23% of global CO2 emissions  ‐ IEA 

15 of our largest urban areas will not meet safe air quality standards by 2020

Road fatalities are still the leading cause of death for 5‐19 year olds

28.5% of the UK population do not get 30 minutes moderate exercisePER WEEK!!!

A characterization of Problem Importance

Importance

Time1980s 1990s 2000s 2010‐>

Economy & Congestion

Air quality

Climate Mitigation

Resilience

Safety

The same kind of thinking...

How we thinkabout demand

Infrastructureas main solution

TechnologicalOptimism

The demand for travel

Investment for growth

A New Realism

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1999 congestion Reference Case2031

Infrastructureschemes only

2031

Infrastructureschemes & road

user charges2031

Infrastructureschemes, roaduser charges &

behaviouralchange 2031

Was

ted

vehi

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hour

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r yea

r (00

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0s)

Curious Trends

Or more of the same?

Image Courtesy of Professor Phil Goodwin

www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=4iuvUjI0n-I

Technological Optimism

The Role of the State

Image from Johnson et al., 2012

Not connected directly but....

RAC Foundation (2012)

Source: Phil Goodwin

Lifecourse

Seasons

0

50

100

150

200

250

Janu

ary

February

March

April

May

June July

August

Septem

ber

Octob

er

Novem

ber

Decembe

r

Med

ian daily to

tal cou

nt of cyclists

Source: Sustrans

Concluding comments