The Future of Transportation

Fred Abousleman

Executive Director

National Association of Regional Councils

Thank you

• Thanks to Rural Arizona Partners• Rural Transportation Advocacy Council• Yuma MPO• Western Arizona COG• Sponsors/Speakers and Friends

The future?

• Hard to predict next year– Especially in transportation funding and finance

• We can however assume a few things:

The future?

• Assumptions based on trends– Double/triple population– Declining condition of infrastructure– Less and less gross percentage of economy spent

on infrastructure– Population densification– Older population – More diverse population– Congestion of roads, rail, ports, airspace because

of:• massive, complex, new global trade networks

Pacific Trade 2000 - 2010

The future

• Climate and energy concerns:– Drastically changed climate– Less oil – need for alternative fuels

• “fixing” for technology– Clean engines– Affordable high speed rail– Low impact aviation– Smart cars and highways

The future

• Fixes?

• Multi-modal system– High speed rail (freight and passenger?) – Smart highways and smarter cars– On-demand and smart transit systems– Aviation congestion technology– New engines, alloys, fuels– Acceptance that we have to invest

• And build less, use what we have more efficiently• Innovative finance

– RIIZs– Smart parking, smart EMS, smart everything…

Current State of the Nation

• US economic conditions is hitting everything – federal, state and local budgets are under constraints and cuts.

• ASCE has given our nation's public infrastructure a D, estimating that it will cost $2.5T over the next five years just to repair current infrastructure

• More than 72,000 miles of municipal water and sewer pipe are more than 80 years old, threatening the public health and economies of communities large and small

• Japan, China, India, and the EU are investing much more in infrastructure

The Nation

• The U.S. spends less than 1% of GDP on infrastructure– China spends 9%– India spends 3.5%

• Federal infrastructure spending accounted for 10% or more of the budget from 1959 -1966

• TODAY, federal spending on infrastructure is approx. 3% of total federal budget

• States and localities account for around 75% of total infrastructure spending

Authorization

•SAFETEA-LU extended through 3/31/2012•FAA extended through 1/31/12

• Chair Mica (R-FL) vowed no more extensions• Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV) promised to

move forward with Senate floor action in early 2012

• House Leadership open to moving transportation legislation in 2012• Some House Members not optimistic

•Can still transfer funds between accounts•Future funding reductions •Time to discuss local impacts of funding shortfalls

• Lessons from ARRA (wasn’t supposed to supplant a LT reauth)

• State level developments• Budget• Authority

• Congress to Cut Discretionary Funding in 2013

– Including transportation

– Increases pressure on states and locals to maintain assets

• FY 2013 Budget Cycle Begins Again

– How to Project Funding/Financing Beyond Current Extension?

• Election-year Politics

– Changing Administration Officials Signifies Different Priorities

– Shortened Calendar

– Greater Marketing of Accomplishments

60% of Republicans and Democrats believe the federal gas tax increases annually. — 61% in the Northeast, 58% in the South, 54% in the Midwest and 67% in the West.

Building America’s Future, 2010

Presently

Bottom Line: 67% of Americans do not believe we are on the right track overall.

•MAP-21; a 2-year bill with policy changes•Passed out of the Senate EPW Committee on 12/9/11•Focuses on key outcomes such as

– reducing fatalities, – improving bridges, – fixing roads, and – reducing congestion

•Several organizations perceive it as an expansion of state-level authority

MPO Type: Retained MPOs Decommissioned MPOs Nonmetropolitan Regions

Description: Existing MPOs can apply to US DOT to retain MPO status

MPOs that either did not apply or did not win MPO status

Regions below 200K after MAP-21 enactment

US DOT designation:

DOT considers them a metropolitan area

DOT considers them a nonmetropolitan area

DOT considers them a nonmetropolitan area

Level of consultation:

Cooperation Consultation Consultation

State project selection:

Cooperation Consultation Consultation

Differences Between Urbanized Areas of 50-200K in MAP-21:

NARC Priorities MAP-21 Changes

Create RPOs where they do not currently exist

No change in authority for RPOs

Rural Consultation Changes in MAP-21:

The original draft of MAP-21 increased the level of consultation for RPOs, but that language removed by a committee amendment.

•Transportation Enhancements

* Graph provided by Streetsblog

Senate Commerce,

Science and Transportation Committee

•Passed legislation focusing on– Overall goals of a surface transportation system– Stand-alone freight program

• *including MPOs

– NHTSA– PMSHA

•Contentious Committee action•Passed without unanimous support (unusual)

Senate Banking,

Housing and Urban Development Committee

•Addressing the federal transit title of the bill•Yet to Introduce•Senate EPW and Banking Committees both share jurisdiction over the transportation planning titles

– Must be the same language

Senate Finance Committee

•Chaired by Sen. Baucus (D-MT)•Developing ways to pay for the legislation as a whole•Chair Boxer (D-CA) projects the need for $12 billion over 2-years to fund her portion•Yet to Introduce

House Transportation

& Infrastructure Committee

•Projected 6-year authorization•Yet to be Introduced•May reorganize key formula programs•Emphasizes performance measures and targets for all formula programs

– National Highway System (assets)– Highway Safety Improvement Program (safety)– Surface Transportation (?)– CMAQ (?)

Differences b/t House and Senate

House Outline Senate – MAP 21

6-yr authorization 2-yr authorization

30% cut Funded at current levels

Restructuring and Devolution Restructuring and Devolution

Constrained by House Rules Spend for Job/Economic Growth

Role of MPOs and Local Govt’s

•Many MPOs voluntarily adopting PM systems– More than safety and asset management– Including quality of life *fuzzy* measures

•What will the role of MPOs be in a formula based, state DOT system

– MPO policy function– Need flexibility to address “on the ground” factors– Politically sensitive topics

Role of MPOs and Local Govt’s

How do talk about transparency and accountability without talking about MPOs and their local governments?•Closest unit of government to the people•Own majority of infrastructure in U.S.•Navigate local political barriers to infrastructure

•Where do the RPOs play?

NARC Transportation Priorities

• Showcase your activities and successes• Completed stimulus projects• Regional collaboration

• Keep Communication Open• DC AND District staff for Members of Congress• Engage your local elected officials

• Case studies/examples• Contact Erika with more information

H.R. 3780

Regional Infrastructure Improvement Zones (RIIZs):

An Innovative

Infrastructure Financing & Funding Tool

Introduced by:

U.S. Congressman Geoff Davis (R-KY, 4)

Conceptualized by:

Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Regional Council of Governments (OKI)

RIIZs are…

• A simple change to federal tax code – tax deduction• A voluntary public-private partnership for investment

in infrastructure – urban & rural• Infrastructure = surface transportation, water,

wastewater, stormwater• A part of an approved plan through COG/MPO, local

governments and community stakeholders• A possible local match contribution• A way to leverage private, federal, state, local dollars• A complement to other infrastructure funding

opportunities and mechanisms

RIIZs are NOT…

• Reliant on lengthy federal authorization/appropriation processes

• A tax credit• An infringement on or contradictory to local or state

statutes• A direct liability of the local governments or their

officials• New mandates or federal requirements• To supplant other funding/financing mechanisms• Limited to any one category of public infrastructure

Legislative Update

• House bill (H.R. 3780) introduced by Rep. Davis (R-KY, 4) on 1/18/12

• Looking for Congressional Co-sponsors• Building Support• Educating on Infrastructure Needs