the future of work
TRANSCRIPT
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9:00 AM - 10:00 AM
Innovation Overload – Technology, Jobs and the Future
Room: Meeting Room 4
Speaker: David Smith
This is not your grandfather’s job market where one could work and retire from one company after 40
years. Your father and your company have probably not fared that well either. The fast pace of
technology change and productivity improvements, in an increasingly competitive market, have
forced companies to change their strategy, frequently upgrade and improve their products or
services, and adjust their workforce. Downsizing, outsourcing, automation, financial pressures,
short-term demands, and failed strategy all contribute to the challenges.
The pace of technology innovation is increasing so fast that many have a hard time choosing where
to focus and how to discover what is new. Most delay action and then miss the window to innovate.
The growth of complex systems and a global infrastructure has changed the decision and education
process. The ability to adapt to real-time and continuous learning will provide an advantage for
professionals of the future. A future focus and focused innovation will drive the next generations of
products and services.
This talk explores the future of work and how it impacts companies and you.
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David Smith
Technology, Jobs and the Future
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Work
“No other technique for the conduct of life attaches the individual so firmly to reality as laying emphasis on work:
For work at least gives one a secure place in a portion of reality, in the human community.”
Sigmund Freud
The product of work contributes to health, well-being and
economic & social stability.
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Changes to the Future of Work
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Source: Employment Policy Foundation analysis and
projections of Census/BLS and BEA data.
Millions of People
Expected Labor Force and Labor Force Demand
Growing Shortage of U.S. Workers
0
50
100
150
200
250
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
Labor Needed
Labor Available
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Female Labor Force Participation
(as a Percent of the Female Population Age 15+),
1990-2011
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Screeching to a Halt:
Growth in the Working-Age Population
Source: Deloitte Research/UN Population Division (http://esa.un.org/unpp/) : Do You Know Where Your Talent Is? Why
Acquisition and Retention Strategies Don’t Work, p.6
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Mexico Brazil India China South Australia Canada US Netherlands Spain France UK Russia Italy Japan Germany
Korea
1970-2010
2010-2050
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5% 5%
-9%
18%
48%
15%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Age of Workers
Percent Growth in U.S. Population by Age: 2000-2010
Dramatically Different Patterns of Growth
by Age
1. Declining number of mid-career workers
2. Few younger
workers entering
3. Rapid growth in the over-55 workforce
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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. . . Continuing Into the Future
Age of Workers
Percent Growth in U.S. Workforce by Age: 2000-2020
7% 8% 7%
-10%
3%
73%
54%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
under 14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-55 55-64 65+
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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In 2000, A Fairly “Young” World . . .
Under 5% 5% to 12.4% 12.5% to 20% Above 20%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Percent of Population Age 60+ in 2000
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. . . Rapidly Aging by 2025
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Under 5% 5% to 12.4% 12.5% to 20% Above 20%
Percent of Population Age 60+ in 2025
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1900 1950 1970 1980 1990 20001910 1920 1930 1940 1960
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
80
Source: U.S. Social Security Administration
Average Life Expectancy at Birth in the U.S.
Why? Dramatic Increase in
Life Expectancy
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“Sudden” Boom in Life Expectancy
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Life Expectancy at Birth: 1000 - 2000Age
76.5
47
3836
35
30
25
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1900 2000
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And a Dramatic Drop in Birth Rates
Source: Age Wave
Tota
l Fer
tilit
y R
ate
Total Fertility Rate:
3.3
2.8 2.9
3.6
2.0
2.5 2.5
4.0
5.9
2.01.7 1.7 1.6
1.4 1.3 1.2
1.8
3.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
US UK France Canada Japan Germany Italy China India
1960 2000
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Why? The Baby Boom Pattern
Source: U.S. Census Bureau International Data Base
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
Birt
h in
Mill
ions
The Boom Years: 1946-1964
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Skill Mismatch Ahead in the U.S.
Over the next decade, only 30% of US 20 year/olds will obtain a college degree, but 2/3’s of new jobs will require a college degree
Key skill sets will be in critically short supply:
- # students that declared their major in computer science has declined for past 4 years—now 39% lower than in 2000
- Other shortages: engineering, physical & biological sciences
A growing number of high school dropouts
Fewer high school graduates with vocational training
Labor “imports” decreasing due to security restrictions and opportunities in rapidly developing countries
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When I was growing up, my parents used to say to me, "Tom, finish your dinner. People in China and India are starving."
Today I tell my girls, "Finish your homework. People in China and India are starving for your jobs."
Source: “The New York Times' Thomas Friedman on
Globalization,” CIO Magazine, March 25, 2005
—Thomas Friedman, The World is Flat
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U.S. 21st Century Workforce Challenges
Chronologically older
Limited availability
Key skills lacking
Global & Virtual
Diverse
- Race
- Gender
- Age Generations
- Culture
Source: Testimony by Tamara J. Erickson to the U.S. Senate Committee on
Health, Education, Labor and Pensions
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Source: Based in part on “Meeting the Challenges of
Tomorrow's Workplace,” CEO Magazine
Four generations (cultures) are being asked to coexist in the
early 21st
century workplace
“Multi-Generational” Workforce
Traditionalist Boomer Generation X Generation Y
Born: 1928-1945 Born: 1946-1964 Born: 1965-1980 Born: 1980-2000
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• to disappear
• to go away
• to withdraw
Source: Webster's New Twentieth Century Dictionary
Webster's Definition of Retirement
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Average Retirement Age of Males
Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies
France
64.5
59.2
65.2
60.5
64.5
60.6
66.2
62.3
66.2
62.7
66.5
63.6
67.2
Germany Italy Canada UK US Japan
1995196068
66
64
62
60
58
56
66.5
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Falling Desire for Jobs
with Greater Responsibility
Source: Generation & Gender in the Workplace, An Issue Brief by Families and Work Institute
69%
41%
14%
60%54%
31%
15%
80%
Under 23 years old(Gen-Y in 2002)
23-37 years old(Gen-X in 2002)
38-57 years old(Boomers in 2002)
58 or more years old
1992
2002
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Declining Desire for Jobs with Greater
Responsibility By Gender
Source: Generation & Gender in the Workplace, An Issue Brief by Families and Work Institute
52%
68%
1992 2002
Men
36%
57%
1992 2002
Women
Employees Wanting Jobs with Greater Responsibility
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Lower Alignment with the Organization
4539
32
4844
28
5752
35
6561
53
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
I really care about the fate
of this organization
(agree)
I’m willing to put in effort
beyond that normally
expected to help the
organization be
successful (agree)
I find my values and the
organization’s are similar
(agree)
Y X Boomer Traditionalist
Source: The New Employee/Employer Equation, The Concours Group and Age Wave
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Education Work Leisure
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Shifting the Old Work/Life Paradigm . . .
Age
Source: Demography is De$tiny,
The Concours Group and Age Wave
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Education Work Leisure
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70Age
80
. . . To a “Cyclic” Life Paradigm
Source: Demography is De$tiny,
The Concours Group and Age Wave
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Education Work Leisure
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70Age
80
. . . Evolving to a “Blended Lifestyle”
Source: Demography is Destiny,
The Concours Group and Age Wave
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Cutting Back Has New Meaning: Cyclic
Work
12%
39%
49%
Working full-time Working part-time Moving back and forth
between working full-time
and not working
The most popular pattern for
working after “retirement” is
not part-time, but moving
back and forth between
periods of working and not
working.
Source: The New Employee/Employer Equation
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Cutting Back Has New Meaning: Cyclic
Work
12%
39%
49%
Working full-time Working part-time Moving back and forth
between working full-time
and not working
The most popular pattern for
working after “retirement” is
not part-time, but moving
back and forth between
periods of working and not
working.
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Copyright, 2011 © HBMG, Inc.
The Limits of Technology
The laws of physics
The laws of software
The challenge of algorithms
The difficulty of distribution
The problems of design
The importance of organization
The impact of economics
The influence of politics
The limits of human imagination
Fundamental
Human
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The Open Economy
• New business models
based on collaboration, co-
creation & sharing
• Transparency as a normal
practice
• Conversations (two way
communication)
• Open interfaces to partners,
vendors, suppliers,
customers
• Common technology and
business standards
• Service and Experience
Mentality
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Impact of Lifestyle on Health and Work
100%
0%
HE
ALT
H
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
AGE
Ideal Lifeline
Typical Lifeline
Optimal Health
Declining Health
Poor Health
Progressive and
chronic disability
What is healthy aging in the 21st century? Westendorp RGJ Am J Clin Nut
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Copyright 2012@ HBMG Inc.
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Copyright 2012@ HBMG Inc.
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The reward for work well
done is the opportunity to
do more.
- Jonas Salk (1914 - 1995)
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In Parting: Be Paranoid
“Sooner or later, something
fundamental in your business
world will change.”
Andrew S. Grove, Founder, Intel
“Only the Paranoid Survive”