the future of work
TRANSCRIPT
The Future of WorkRob Biederman
Co-Founder and CEO, Catalant Technologies
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How did you envision your career … when you were 10?
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Did you envision your city?
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Did you envision your city?
Your office building?
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Your desk?
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Your commute?
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You probably didn’t envision this
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Or this
http://www.remoteyear.com/how-it-works/
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Historically, work was where
10http://www.logospike.com/company-logos-1382/
And for which company
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But work is an evolving term
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How did we get here?
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Hunter-gather groups move constantly
Prior to ~12,000BC
14http://www.regentsprep.org/regents/global/themes/change/neohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_Revolution; .cfm; Scanned from 1000 Fragen an die Natur, via The Metropolitan Museum of Art, Rogers Fund, 1948., Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=2959985
Permanent encampments formNeolithic Revolution ~12,000BC
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Small farms and skilled craftsmen
Agrarian America (early 1600s – late 1700s)
https://www.flickr.com/photos/jjc3/8220180903
16By E.L. Hoskyn - Plate from More Pictures of British History, London, 1914, p.61. Publisher: London. Adam and Charles Black. 1914, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=8386342
Farms factories
Industrial Revolution (late 1700s – early 1800s)
17http://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/2010/09/model-t-plant-to-become-a-museum.html
Factories bigger, more efficient factories
2nd Industrial Revolution (late 1800s – early 1900s)
18By The Opte Project - Originally from the English Wikipedia; description page is/was here., CC BY 2.5, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=1538544
Mechanical digital
3rd Industrial Revolution (2nd half 1900s)
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Work is basically constant
…until brief but explosive periods of change
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Is the 4th Industrial Revolution underway?
21https://www.mbopartners.com/uploads/files/state-of-independence-reports/2016_MBO_Partners_State_of_Independence_Report.pdf
For millions today, and more tomorrow, work is changing
2015 2021
29 34
# Americans working independently(Millions)
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The “gig” economy growing rapidly
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Lifetime “company man” ideal = gone.For whom we work...
How we source work…
Where we work…
For how long we work…
…are all changing.
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Why?
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Four topicsWorkforce1Employment landscape2
Other aids4
Technology enablement3
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The workforce today is more educated
of the workforce has at least a bachelor’s degree (versus 27%)39%
US census; 25 and older; Aug 2016 versus Aug 1996
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The workforce today is less unionized
of employed workers are union members (versus 18%)11%
US census; 2015 versus 1985
28http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/05/11/millennials-surpass-gen-xers-as-the-largest-generation-in-u-s-labor-force/ (data is 1Q2015); US census
The workforce today is more “Millennial”
of the workforce is Millennial34%
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Millennials think differently
See themselves at current job a decade from now
16%
Would like to work remotely75%
Feel in control of their career paths77%
The Deloitte Millennial Survey 2016
30US census
Manufacturing services
Jobs lost in manufacturing
Jobs added in education & health serv., prof. & biz services, and hospitality
23%
35%
Job movement, 2000 - 2015
31US census, Aug 1996 and 2016
Worker manager
Jobs lost from ‘sales and office’ and ‘production,
transportation, and material moving’
Jobs added to ‘management and
professional’11%
41%
Job movement, 1996 - 2016
32KPCB.com/internettrends; https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Carnabotnet_geovideo_lowres.gif
Ubiquitous global internet…
billion internet users, 42% of global population3
33KPCB.com/internettrends; https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Carnabotnet_geovideo_lowres.gif
…and ubiquitous smart phone
billion smart phones, more than 5x penetration in 20102.5
34http://fortune.com/2016/08/04/america-internet-speed-spikes/
Internet speeds are fast…
Mbps --- average download speed on broadband in the US in June 2016, up 42% Y-o-Y55
Mbps --- avg download speed on mobile, up 33% Y-o-Y20
35Fortune.com
…and getting faster…Gbps --- expected top download speed on 5G mobile networks1
36Akamai State of the Internet 1Q2016
…everywhereCountries with faster average connection speeds than the US14
37By Fuelrefuel - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=5146472; https://www.skype.com/en/meetings/; https://blogs.skype.com/2016/04/28/over-1-billion-skype-mobile-downloads-thank-you/
Video calls available to everyone
billion Skype downloads, as of 4/161
From:
To:
38KPBC; By Victorgrigas - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=20348454
Storage way up10 billion
petabytes of data in the digital universe, growing 50% p.a.
~$0.06 per GB of storage, falling 20% per annum
Storage costs way down
39https://www.cnet.com/how-to/onedrive-dropbox-google-drive-and-box-which-cloud-storage-service-is-right-for-you/
Secure cloud storage and file sharing available to all Gigabytes of free storage
15 10 5 2
40http://coworkinghandbook.com/stats/
Coworking space expanding rapidly
Number of coworking spaces globally
20132007 2015
3,400757,800
41https://www.dol.gov/sites/default/files/ebsa/researchers/statistics/retirement-bulletins/historicaltables.pdf
Traditional pensions a thing of the past
# of private defined-benefit pensions
1983 2013
175k 44k
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What’s changed so far?Education1
Remote work increasing2
HR teams changing approach4
Gig economy ‘mainstreamed’3
43Number represent fall of each year; 2002 number estimated; http://onlinelearningconsortium.org/read/online-report-card-tracking-online-education-united-states-2015/
Online education continues to grow
2002 20141.2
5.8
# of higher education students enrolled in at least one online course(Millions)
28% of all enrolled students
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Remote working: rare common
https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/270585; Gallup poll
1996 20159%
37%
Workers that have worked remotely
http://nextjuggernaut.com/blog/on-demand-economy-survey-stats-future-economy-funding-trends-on-demand-startups/; MeasuringGigEconomy_1609.pdf staffingindustry.com 45
The on-demand economy is the new norm
of US workers did gig work in 2015 29%
of US adults have used at least one on-demand startup42%
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“home-working will no longer be defined as a Friday luxury” - World Economic Forum
Employers are responding with a range of remote and flexible jobs
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Where has the impact been felt?
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Travel & transportation
49sf.eater.com
Task-oriented work
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Tech: developers, designers, product managers
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Consulting
“The shift is triggered when customers realize that they are paying too much for features they don’t value.” –
Harvard Business ReviewHBR: Consulting on the Cusp of Disruption
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Legal
HBR: Consulting on the Cusp of Disruption
“AdvanceLaw survey: 79% agree that “unbundling of legal services…will rise.” – Harvard Business Review
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Where are we going?[a few guesses]
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Smaller FTE core
Lower need for physical spaceReal estate
Need to invest in collaboration/remote technologiesTechnology
New skill set in sourcing short-term talent; HR becomes more importantHR
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Changing competition for talent
Shorter average tenure requires more-frequent talent acquisition and competition
Companies compete with each other AND with ‘going independent’ for FTEs
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More versatile career pathsTypical promotion path dies in favor of
more flexibility within (and outside of) organizations
Source: MBO Partners. America’s Independents A Rising Economic Force– 2016 State of Independence in America. Herndon, VA: MBO Partners, 2016
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What remains to be solved?[a lot]
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How will we train the next generation of leaders…
…if they aren’t in the office to do
trust falls?
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How will leaders create culture…
…when employees aren’t together 40
hours per week?
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How will external validation evolve to ensure career progression…
…if more and more people work independently?
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How will companies provide benefits and incentives…
…if “employee” becomes a more-fluid
term?
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What will we do with all that office space?
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What will we do with all that office space?
What we’re seeing
of executives believe that most great people, ideas, and
capabilities lie outside the walls of their company
84%
(Catalant 2016 CHRO Survey))
40% of U.S. companies can’t fill the positions they need
(McKinsey Global Institute)
$10 trillion in GDP will be lost because companies cannot fill the jobs
available (Boston Consulting Group)
of executives believe their company needs to evolve its approach to work format
and people management to be successful in the future
(Catalant 2016 CHRO Survey)
75%
In this workplace of the future, there will be little difference between “us” in-house employees and "them”, independent experts. We will both be working together to solve business problems through collective intellect.
-Future of Work thought leadership forum
Optional
Gone
Ticket Cost
Traditional Airline
Spirit unbundled air travel
We Are Unbundling Consulting
Training & recruiting
Travel expenses
Brand
Partner time
Firm overhead
Required labor
Training & recruiting
Travel expenses
Brand
Partner time
Firm overhead
Required labor
Project Cost
Gone
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Let’s sum it up
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We are likely living in the next period of massive change
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Where there is massive change…
…there is massive opportunity
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Enormous winners will be created
Andrew Carnegie
Henry Ford ???
Andy Grove Bill Gates ???
Wikipedia.org
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Where do you fit in?