the german and the austrian travel habits · 2015. 3. 23. · the austrian travel habits an...

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The German and the Austrian travel habits An analysis over time based on the German Reiseanalyse and the Austrian official travel behaviour surveys

Peter Laimer Statistics Austria Directorate Spatial Statistics

Ulf Sonntag NIT Head of Market Research

13th Global Forum on Tourism Statistics, Nara/Japan, 17-18/11/2014

| November 2014 www.statistik.at | www.nit-kiel.de

Agenda

Introduction: The need for national tourism demand surveys

Set-up: How to finance and keep running these surveys

Methodology: How to conduct these surveys

Results: What can they show? How can they help?

Conclusions


The need for national

tourism demand surveys

In the 1960s/1970s tourism became a mass phaenomenon in Austria and Germany

Need to understand tourism demand for different motivations: - industry (destinations, tour operators, transport) marketing - administration regulation, policy making - society/economy tourism as part of social life and national economy

Since 1995 (Directive/Regulation on Tourism Statistics) required by European law


Set-up of national demand side surveys in

Austria and Germany

AUSTRIA GERMANY

Study Austrian official travel behaviour studies

German REISEANALYSE

Background Administrative driven Industry driven

Data Incorporated in the official statistical system

Not part of official statistics

Conducting Body Official statistical office: Statistics Austria

Non-profit association of the users: Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen e.V.

Cost per year ~ EUR 200,000 EUR 750,000

Financing Government (single source) Shared by 25+ users (‘crowd sourced‘)

Users

Federal Ministry of Science, Research and Economy; Research institutions, incl. universities; travel industry; Austrian National Bank (TBoP); Eurostat; Statistics Austria

Destinations (international and domestic); ministries, administrations; universities; tour operators; cruise companies; hotel chains; travel technology; travel associations; publishing houses

Content/ Methodology

Dictated by legal directives Dictated by user demand


Survey methodologies –

AUSTRIA and GERMANY

AUSTRIA GERMANY

Universe Austrian population aged 15+ German-speaking population aged 14+ (face-to-face) 14-70 (online)

Frequency quarterly annually (face-to-face) plus biannually (online)

Sample size (net) 3,500 interviews per quarter 8,000 interviews face-to-face plus 5,000 online interviews per year

Survey method „Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews“ (CATI)

Face-to-face interviews plus online interviews

Sampling Register-based, official telephone book

Random-route (face-to-face) and online access panel (online)

Interview duration Max. 15 minutes 60+ minutes (face-to-face) max. 20 minutes (online)

Survey coverage

holiday trips 4+ nights: comprehensive questionnaire

short-term holiday trips: comprehensive questionnaire

business trips: comprehensive questionnaire

same-day trips: basic data

holiday trips 4+ nights: comprehensive questionnaire

short-term holiday trips: comprehensive questionnaire

business trips: basic data

Same-day trips: no data


Methodology: Strength and Challenges

AUSTRIA and GERMANY

AUSTRIA GERMANY

Strengths

• „Visting friends and relatives“ (VFR) and trips to owned dwellings are covered

• Same-day tourism and business tourism is covered

• Sample of individuals is amenable for extrapolations

• Highly informative information that is open to all kinds of analyses (e.g. profile of the trips and tourists)

• continuity and highest possible quality (face-to-face);

• at the same time advantages of online surveys such as low cost and fast results;

• flexibility to use best possible methodology, e.g. long term trends in tourism behaviour in the face-to-face survey and actual online holiday planning with online interviews

Quality assurance Manifold scientific and sophisticated steps of quality assurance

Challenging issues

• Recall issues (i.e. retrospective survey, item non-response) • Coverage and bias (i.e. invalid telephone numbers, non-response) • Comparability (i.e. over time, coherence with other data) • Sample error (depending of no. of cases)


Coverage of holiday trips 4+ nights

AUSTRIA GERMANY

Scope Domestic and outgoing

Participation Holiday travel intensity, frequency and total volume

Travel behaviour Month of departure, length of stay, destination, organization,

means of transport, kind of accommodation, travel group (household members), expenditure, type of holiday

Additional information

Reasons for non-travelling, booking via internet

Holiday intentions next 3 years (destinations/holiday types); general holiday motivation;

general holiday activities; internet use for holiday planning

Sociodemography Extensive information about personal background


Relevant (future) socio-demographic

developments/trends

Variables Developments and trends in AUSTRIA

Population (forecasts)

Increase to 9.0 million in 2030, to 9.4 million in 2060:

Capital Vienna by +27%

Share of persons under 20 years rather stable, 65 years and older increasing (improving life expectancy)

Increasing foreign born population, until 2060 nearly doubled

Household and family

Decreasing birth rates Decreasing family sizes Increasing single person households

Urbanisation

Increasing number of urban residents City escape during main holiday season High travel intensity, due to socio-demographic structure

Situation in GERMANY …

Population: Ageing, slowly decreasing, migration

Household: same as Austria

Urbanisation: same as Austria


AUSTRIA

Holiday travel intensity 1969-20131)

1) With at least 4 overnight stays.

Holiday trips per traveller 1969: 1.2 2013: 2.2


Age Travel intensity (in %) Change (in %-points)

1993 1999 2002 2009 2013 1993-2002 2002-2013

15-24 45.2 49.4 45.2 64.8 64.0 -0.0 18.8

25-34 44.7 53.4 51.2 61.1 60.4 6.5 9.2

35-44 53.7 56.3 54.8 65.3 63.0 1.1 8.1

45-54 51.4 52.3 50.6 59.1 60.7 -0.9 10.1

55-64 42.4 48.6 47.0 60.1 62.1 4.6 15.1

65+ years 31.0 32.6 28.7 45.8 45.9 -2.3 17.2

Total 44.5 49.7 48.0 59.3 58.7 3.5 10.7

S: Statistics Austria

AUSTRIA

Holiday travel intensity by age 1969-20131)



GERMANY

Holiday travel intensity 1954-20131)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Moving 10y average

2013: 78%

1971: 47%

Holiday trips per traveller 1971: 1.2 2013: 1.3



Travel intensity (in % of age group) Change in %

Age 1972 1982 1993 2003 2013 1972-1993 1993-2013

14-19 years 53 61 84 83 84 +58% ±0%

20-29 years 59 59 82 77 79 +39% -2%

30-39 years 53 56 79 79 82 +49% +4%

40-49 years 49 57 82 81 82 +67% ±0%

50-59 years 49 53 79 80 81 +61% +3%

60-69 years 41 48 68 76 77 +66% +13%

70+ years 33 47 52 63 64 +56% +23%

Total population 49 55 75 77 78 +53% +4%

GERMANY

Holiday travel intensity by age 1969-20131)



GERMANY

Holiday travel age structure 20251)

70+ years

60-69 years

50-59 years

40-49 years

30-39 years

20-29 years

14-19 years

TOTAL

7 6

13 10

13 13

19

15

17

16

14

20

16 19

2013 2025 -1.1

-1.0

-2.5

0.1

-3.1

-0.9

4.1

2.2

Balance (million) 2013 2025 Age Share of all holiday trips (%)


AUSTRIA

Holiday destinations 1969-20131)




AUSTRIA



85

46

38

30 29 33 30

15

54

62

70 71 68 70

19

54

19

58

19

62

19

66

19

70

19

74

19

78

19

82

19

86

19

90

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

GERMANY



Domestic

Abroad


GERMANY



ABROAD 1982 1993 2003 2013 19932013

Spain + 24%

Italy - 5%

Turkey + 205%

Austria - 27%

France - 39% 4%

10%

11%

10%

5%

9%

2%

8%

11%

3%

7%

6%

9%

13%

3%

6%

6%

7%

13%


AUSTRIA

Holiday trips – seasonality 1969-20131)




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dez.

1972

1982

1993

2003

2013

15

65

15 5 Spring (March-May)

Summer (June-Aug.)

Autumn (Sep.-Nov.)

Winter (Jan., Feb., Dec.)

19

48

23

9 1972 2013

GERMANY

Holiday trips – seasonality 1972-20131)


GERMANY

ASIA on the German holiday market

1.4%

2.0%

2003 2013

ASIA DEMAND:

Asia = India, Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives, China, Korea,

Japan, Southeast Asia (Thailand, Indonesia. Philippines, New-Guinea)

Basis: Holiday trips (5+ days) of the German-speaking population 14+

yrs. (until 2009 only Germans); Source: RA 2004-2014

6%

12%

2004-06 2014-16

ASIA INTEREST:

Asia = South Asia (India, Sri Lanka, Maldives etc.), Southeast Asia

(Indonesia, Thailand etc.), East Asia (Japan, China, Korea etc.);

Basis: German-speaking population 14+ yrs. (until 2009 only

Germans); Source: RA 2004-2014

4%

6%

6%

12%

Korea

China

Japan

Thailand

INTEREST TO TRAVEL TO ASIAN COUNTRIES 2014-2016 :

Basis: German-speaking population 14+ yrs.; Source: RA 2013


Potential guests to Japan are …

Much younger than the average German (38 yrs. vs. 48 yrs.)

20-39-year-old way above average

Well-off, well educated

From all over Germany; the East being overrepresented, the Northwest being underrepresented

Competition

Besides Japan interested in 28 international destinations they also

like to visit 2014-2016 (out of a set of 59 destinations)

Multi-optionality of the German traveller: Interested in much more

destinations than he is likely to visit.

GERMANY

JAPAN on the German holiday market


Conclusion

Set-up Business-driven versus legal/administrative-driven approach Level of diversification of costs

Methodo-logy

Decreasing number of valid telephon numbers

Increasing cost for face-to-face interviews in the near future

Evaluation of alternative methods (RDD, CAWI, Big Data, etc.)

Results

Travelling influenced by socio-demographic (age, education, single households, etc.), and social developments (leisure time, traveling as a primary need, etc.)

Travelling influenced by tourism industry (low prices, air travel offers, etc.)

Domestic tourism rather stable, traveling abroad above average

Winter holidays and traveling in low season gaining importance (seasonal more balanced tourism)

near and popular travel destinations reached by car, air travel gained importance above average

Use

marketing and strategic planning

interests, motivations and decision-processes of travelers

support the common understanding related to tourism demand related figures


CONTACT

Please address queries to: Peter Laimer

Johanna Ostertag-Sydler

Contact information: Guglgasse 13, 1110 Vienna, Austria

phone: +43 (1) 71128-7849/7085 fax: +43 (1) 4934300

[email protected] [email protected]

http://www.statistik.at/web_en/statistic

s/tourism/travel_habits/index.html

Please address queries to: Ulf Sonntag

Contact information:

Fleethörn 23, 24103 Kiel, Germany phone: +49 (431) 6665670

fax: +49 (431) 66656710 [email protected]

www.nit-kiel.de

www.reiseanalyse.de
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